资产端贷款利率仍将处于下行通道。 5月20日，一年期及五年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）年内迎来首次下调，均下调10个基点（BP）。与 此同时，国有大行及招行率先启动年内首次人民币存款利率下调，其中一年期存款首次跌破"1%"。 此次LPR和存款利率的同时下调引发了市场的广泛关注。此前监管数据显示，一季度商业银行净息差已 降至1.43%，处于历史较低水平。在此背景下，银行息差是否会进一步受到压力成为市场焦点。 综合来看，业内人士的看法存在分歧。一部分人士认为，LPR报价下调带动存款利率同步下调，将有助 于缓解商业银行净息差的下行压力；然而，还有部分观点指出，在新一轮降息的推动下，利率中枢整体 继续下移，资产端贷款利率仍将处于下行通道，银行息差仍将面临一定的压力。 房贷利率再下行 LPR下调的直接影响之一是新发放房贷利率的降低。对于购房者来说，这意味着更低的融资成本和更轻 松的还款压力，但对于银行而言，资产端收益可能在一定时期内有所减少。 央行数据显示，今年4月份，全国个人住房新发放贷款加权平均利率约3.1%。据此测算，以一笔100万 元的房贷为例，贷款期限为30年，采用等额本息还款方式，LPR下调前的利率为3.1 ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者民生宏观团队 川阅全球宏观 . 回顾历次"存款利率降幅>LPR降幅"情形，均存在外部约束缓解、内部稳息差的共性经验。 2022年以来的历次存款利率、LPR非对称下调： 1）2023年6月、9月：美联储加息进入尾声，国内降息落地。 彼时国内经济复苏动能不强，银 行间流动性持续宽松。但在银行净息差持续承压、存款定期化和长期化的局面下，央行"防空 转"、缓解银行负债成本、引导资金进入实体经济的诉求明显上升。 因此，相比同期LPR变 动，该轮存款利率调整主要体现在长期存款利率降幅更大。 2）2023年12月："美联储降息"交易抢跑，国内债市利率快速下行。 汇率压力的缓解并未促 成央行的再次降息，LPR也同样"按兵不动"。这主要是因为2023年9月存量房贷利率下调，12 月债市收益率开启一轮快速下行，再加上同期地方债务的高息贷款置换，已经对银行资产端收 益构成了明显压力。该轮存款利率下调，再次表现为长期存款利率相较同期限LPR的降幅更 大， 随后促成了2024年7月5年期LPR宽幅下调35个基点。 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 张云杰 ...

Group 1 - The six major banks collectively announced a reduction in deposit rates, with cuts ranging from 5 basis points (BP) to 25 BP, while the People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 BP for both one-year and five-year terms [1][2] - The reduction in deposit rates is the largest in recent years, with the one-year deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time, potentially leading to a shift of deposits towards non-bank financial institutions [1][6] - According to CICC's static calculations, the impact of the LPR and deposit rate cuts on banks' net interest margin (NIM), revenue, and profit is an increase of 7 BP, 3 BP, and 6 BP respectively, indicating a generally positive effect on banks [2][3] Group 2 - The adjusted interest rates for fixed-term deposits are now 0.95% for one year, 1.05% for two years, 1.25% for three years, and 1.3% for five years, with significant reductions in the longer-term rates [2] - The average reduction in deposit rates is approximately 16 BP, which is greater than the LPR cut, reflecting a protective measure for banks' interest margins [2][3] - The ongoing low interest rate environment is expected to alleviate debt burdens for enterprises and households, stimulate economic activity, and stabilize banks' asset quality, despite causing a significant impact on listed banks' operating income [2][4] Group 3 - The net interest margin for listed banks is projected to decline by 2.20% year-on-year in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline, with the average NIM expected to be 1.52% [4][5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a further decrease in the net interest margin to 1.43%, which is significantly below the 1.8% warning level [4][5] - The trend of funds flowing from banks to non-bank financial institutions is exacerbated by the reduction in deposit rates, with a notable increase in bank liabilities to other financial companies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The accumulation of OCI floating profits in banks has largely been consumed, primarily due to passive consumption from a weak bond market rather than active selling by banks [1][2][3] Group 1: OCI Floating Profit Consumption - Most banks have consumed over half of their OCI floating profit accumulation, with some banks even turning to floating losses; large banks have a relatively smaller consumption ratio, around one-third [1] - Among the six major banks, only one has consumed about half of its floating profit accumulation, while the others have consumed approximately one-third [1] - Out of 33 listed banks with available data, 25 have consumed more than half of their floating profit accumulation, with 7 turning to floating losses [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Revenue - The low performance of bond market investments has significantly dragged down the revenue performance of listed banks, with non-interest income negatively impacting revenue growth by 3.81 percentage points for joint-stock banks and 6.42 percentage points for city commercial banks [1] - For rural commercial banks, the contribution from non-interest income dropped from 7.30 percentage points to 4.52 percentage points [1] Group 3: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The pressure on net interest margins (NIM) is primarily observed in large banks, with a notable narrowing in Q1 due to a "lack of liabilities" leading to a shift towards interbank certificates of deposit [3] - In Q1, the average NIM for large banks narrowed by 0.10 percentage points to a low of 1.39%, significantly weaker than seasonal trends [3] - The recovery trend for NIM is not stable, as interbank deposits saw a seasonal decline in March, although there was a notable rebound in April due to a more relaxed funding environment [3]

Group 1: Financial Investment Trends - The financial investment growth rate for listed banks showed divergence, with rural commercial banks rebounding to 8.30% in Q1 2025 after a decline in 2024[2] - State-owned banks' financial investment growth was weaker compared to other types of banks due to liability pressures[2] - The average contribution of investment net income to revenue increased, with contributions for state-owned, joint-stock, city commercial, and rural commercial banks at 6.95%, 18.56%, 25.86%, and 28.85% respectively in Q1 2025[2][31] Group 2: OCI Account and Profit Realization - The average proportion of OCI accounts increased to 32.5%, while the average AC proportion decreased to 47.5% in Q1 2025, indicating a greater reliance on OCI accounts for profit adjustment[2][28] - Estimated remaining sellable old bonds for listed banks is approximately 4.5 trillion yuan, with state-owned banks holding about 2.8 trillion yuan[4] - The pressure to sell bonds may re-emerge in Q2, raising questions about the remaining space for selling old bonds[3] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The average net profit growth rate for listed banks declined from 4.83% in 2024 to 2.29% in Q1 2025, with some banks experiencing negative growth[19] - Average interest margin narrowed to 1.58% in Q1 2025, down from 1.61% in 2024, indicating ongoing profitability pressure[21] - Interest income remains the primary revenue source, but the average interest net income for state-owned banks decreased by 2.75% year-on-year[23] Group 4: Asset Quality and Risk - Overall asset quality improved, but potential risks accumulated, particularly with an increase in the proportion of special mention loans for rural commercial banks[5] - The capital adequacy ratio for various banks declined, with state-owned banks experiencing the most significant drop, indicating pressure on capital retention capabilities[5]

Core Viewpoint - Huishang Bank has shown steady growth in total assets while experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth and moderate profit growth, positioning itself favorably among urban commercial banks in China [2][3][7]. Group 1: Company Overview - Huishang Bank was established in 1997 and has undergone several name changes and mergers, currently operating 21 branches and 464 outlets, primarily in Anhui province [1]. - As of the end of 2024, Huishang Bank's loans in Anhui accounted for 88.87% of its total loans, indicating a strong regional focus [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - By the end of 2024, Huishang Bank's total assets exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching 2.01 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.49% [2]. - The bank achieved operating income of 37.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.414 billion yuan, up 6.80% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Huishang Bank ranks approximately seventh among urban commercial banks in terms of total assets, surpassing Hengfeng Bank and Bohai Bank in total assets, operating income, and net profit [7]. - In 2024, Huishang Bank's net interest margin was 1.71%, a decrease of 17 basis points from 2023, which is considered moderate among major commercial banks [12]. Group 4: Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, Huishang Bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 0.99%, down 27 basis points from the previous year, with a provision coverage ratio of 286.47%, an increase of 14.53 percentage points [14]. - The bank's corporate loan NPL ratio improved to 0.86%, while the personal loan NPL ratio rose to 1.51%, indicating a divergence in asset quality between corporate and personal loans [16].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2][24] Core Viewpoints - The recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are expected to have a neutral to positive impact on banks' net interest margins, with a projected decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points [4][13] - The policy signals are significant and are expected to improve the fundamentals of the banking sector, stimulating credit and asset investments, with an estimated increase of about 1.8 trillion yuan in credit funds due to various refinancing measures [6][16] - The asset quality of banks is anticipated to improve, particularly in the real estate sector, as new financing regulations are expected to stabilize the market [19] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Interest Rate Cuts and Reserve Requirement Ratio Reductions - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the 7-day reverse repo rate by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in the LPR [13] - The reserve requirement ratio was lowered by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [13] 2. Policy Signals and Their Implications 2.1 Stimulating Credit and Asset Investments - The central bank has increased the quota for refinancing aimed at technological innovation and transformation by 300 billion yuan, and established a 500 billion yuan refinancing facility for consumer services and elderly care [6][16] - Additional refinancing quotas for agricultural and small business loans are expected to further enhance lending capabilities [16] 2.2 Improvement in Asset Quality - New financing regulations are being introduced to support the real estate sector, which is expected to lead to marginal improvements in the quality of housing-related loans [19] 3. Investment Recommendations - Following the interest rate cuts, there is an opening for lower risk-free interest rates, highlighting the value of state-owned banks. Recommended banks include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications [7][21] - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand through fiscal policies suggests that regional banks may exceed expectations in credit deployment, with recommendations for Chongqing Bank, Bank of Chongqing, Chengdu Bank, and Qilu Bank [21]

Overall Review - The banking sector is currently under pressure, with a decline in both revenue and profit. In Q1 2025, the total operating income of listed banks decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 1.2%. The decline in net profit is primarily due to a slowdown in the growth of other non-interest income and reduced provisioning efforts [1] Net Interest Margin - The year-on-year decline in net interest margin has narrowed, with listed banks experiencing a decrease of 13 basis points to 1.43% in Q1. This is an improvement from a 17 basis point decline in the previous year. A slight reduction in the annual net interest margin is expected to be between 10-15 basis points due to lower deposit rates [2] Asset Quality - Overall asset quality pressure has slightly eased, with major banks having sufficient provisioning space to support profits. The non-performing loan ratio, attention rate, and overdue rate are all showing a stable decline. Major banks still have ample provisioning to support profits, while smaller banks may face limitations [3] Asset Scale - The overall growth rate of total assets has returned to normal levels, with city commercial banks maintaining a higher growth rate. As of the end of Q1 2025, the total assets of listed banks grew by 7.5% year-on-year, aligning with the current industry return on equity (ROE) and dividend rates [4] Non-Interest Income - Net fee income has reached a bottom level, while other non-interest income has negatively impacted performance. In Q1, the growth rate of other non-interest income for smaller banks significantly declined due to rising market interest rates, becoming a major drag on revenue and net profit growth [5]

今年一季度净息差相比去年第四季度环比下行5bp至1.33%、环比2024年下行10bp，导致净利息收入增速同比下降 2.0%。这直接导致银行一季度业绩承受压力。值得注意的是，这还是在央行未降息的情况下发生的。就是说，如 果央行降息，这个数据下滑更大，银行的净利润增速下滑也更大。 这就是央行降息非常谨慎的原因，去年年末就提出"适时降息降准""择机降息降准"，直到五月份降息降准仍未落 地，谨慎程度可见一斑。 我们分析一季度净息差下行的原因则主要是，去年央行连续降息，今年贷款重定价，债券市场收益率下行，债券 资产重定价，这都导致资产收益率下降。其次，贷款需求偏弱，导致短期贷款和票据占比增速提高，这也导致资 产收益率下降。而从负债角度讲，企业和居民的风险偏好仍然在下降，定期存款增速高于活期存款，负债成本仍 然在上涨。 影响银行利润的还有一个重要因素就是拨备，今年一季度42家A股上市银行不良率整体维持2024年末水平，绝大 部分低于1.5%。六家国有大行中，工商银行、农业银行、建设银行、交通银行不良率分别下降0.01、0.02、0.01、 0.01个百分点至1.33%、1.28%、1.33%、1.30%；中国银行持平于 ...