Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] Market Review - **Futures Market Performance**: The Shanghai Zinc futures opened with a gap - up. The contract 2512 closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 0.82%. It showed a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions, with positions decreasing by 2,016 to 116,923 lots. Other contracts like 2511 and 2601 also had price increases [7]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: Domestic northern mines are seasonally reducing production, and some mines are actively controlling production after completing their annual plans. Domestic zinc ore supply is on a downward trend, and zinc ore TC is expected to weaken. The imported zinc ore processing fee in October also started to decline, and zinc ore imports are still at a loss, making domestic ore more price - competitive. With smelters' winter storage demand, domestic TC is under more pressure. Although smelters currently have relatively sufficient raw material inventories, zinc ingot production may be restricted due to the decline in domestic zinc ore processing fees and tightened raw material supply [7]. - **LME Inventory and Market Support**: The 0 - 3 Back extreme value has significantly declined. There was a 225 - ton delivery at LME Hong Kong and a 1,700 - ton reduction in Singapore. LME zinc inventory is below 35,000 tons. The tight supply pattern and an overall optimistic macro - environment strongly support the London zinc price. Overall, with the realization of export increments, the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the impact of the tight ore situation on zinc prices, which provides some support, while weak consumption restricts the upside. Shanghai zinc has a weak rebound from a low level [7]. Industry News - **Price Ranges in Different Markets on November 4, 2025**: In the mainstream market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,610 - 22,810 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand at 22,670 - 22,890 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc at 22,540 - 22,740 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 50 yuan/ton for the next - month ticket against the SMM average price, with few quotes against the market [8]. - **Regional Market Details**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22,620 - 22,800 yuan/ton, with a discount of 40 yuan/ton against the 2512 contract and a premium of 50 yuan/ton against the Shanghai spot price. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,540 - 22,720 yuan/ton, and the 0 ordinary zinc was at a discount of 10 - 90 yuan/ton against the 2512 contract. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,520 - 22,750 yuan/ton, with a discount of 100 yuan/ton against the 2512 contract and a discount of 10 yuan/ton against the Shanghai spot price [8]. Data Overview - **Data Charts**: The report includes charts such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE month - to - month spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the realized export increment, the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the transmission of the tight - mine logic, which provides some support for zinc prices. However, the upside is constrained by weak consumption, leading to a weak rebound and repair of SHFE zinc at low levels [7][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1. Market Review - In Q1, the center of zinc prices declined and entered a wide - range oscillation range. In Q2, macro - risk events drove SHFE zinc futures prices to gap down and move lower. The shadow of tariff policies persisted, and the oversupply in the industrial supply - demand situation pressured zinc prices, which oscillated within a range. In Q3, the anti - involution trend in the domestic commodity market and the rising expectation of overseas interest rate cuts pushed the macro - environment to turn warmer. However, the continuous drag from the SHFE zinc fundamentals prevented resonance, resulting in a pattern of rising and then falling within a range. In July, tariff policies increased trade uncertainty, causing the market sentiment to turn cautious. The macro and fundamental aspects resonated, and SHFE zinc dipped to 21,865 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, the anti - involution sentiment swept through the commodity market, and SHFE zinc led the rally among non - ferrous metals. At the end of July, the lack of super - expected stimulus in the Politburo meeting, combined with the fundamental drag, pressured SHFE zinc again. In August, the core contradiction of abundant zinc concentrate and zinc ingots in the zinc market became more prominent during the off - season of demand. Supported by overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the low - inventory pattern on the LME, SHFE zinc was difficult to decline significantly, oscillating between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan/ton. In September, the strengthening overseas interest - rate cut expectation and the shift of the LME 0 - 3 structure to Back and its widening supported the zinc price from the external market. In China, the supply exceeded demand, and the inflection point of social inventory destocking was postponed. SHFE zinc lacked upward momentum and maintained an oscillating pattern. In late September, affected by the macro - environment, the strengthening US dollar led to long - position liquidation in LME zinc, dragging SHFE zinc below 22,000 yuan/ton. In October, with the opening of the export window, some zinc ingots were exported, and the supply - demand pattern improved marginally [9][10]. 3.1.2. Future Outlook - On the mine side, seasonal production cuts in northern domestic mines and some mines' active production control after completing their annual plans have led to a decline in domestic zinc - mine supply. The zinc - mine TC is still expected to weaken. In October, the imported zinc - mine processing fee also showed a peak - and - decline trend. Although the internal - external ratio has recovered from its low level, zinc - mine imports are still at a loss, highlighting the price advantage of domestic mines. With the support of smelters' winter - storage demand, the domestic TC is under more significant pressure. On the supply side, although smelters currently have relatively abundant raw - material inventories, the decline in domestic zinc - mine processing fees and the tightening of raw - material supply may restrict zinc - ingot production. On the demand side, the "Silver October" peak season ended, and the primary consumption sector performed mediocrely, with year - on - year performance worse than last year. Coupled with the weak prices of the black - metal sector, there were few bright spots overall. Affected by the closure of the import window, zinc - ingot imports significantly shrank. In mid - to late October, the export window to Southeast Asia opened, and the decline in the net - import level alleviated the domestic oversupply situation. The high - premium structure overseas stimulated the delivery of some invisible inventories, and the extreme value of 0 - 3 Back significantly declined. However, the LME zinc inventory remained below 40,000 tons. The tight - supply pattern and the generally optimistic macro - environment strongly supported LME zinc [7][25]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Winter Storage Leads to Peaked - and - Declined Processing Fees, and Domestic Zinc - Mine Supply Weakens Month - on - Month - ILZSG indicates that due to planned and unexpected mine closures, zinc - mine production has decreased in the past three years, but it may increase by 4.3% to 1.243 billion tons in 2025. It is expected that due to the increase in concentrate supply, refined - zinc production will grow by 1.8% to 1.373 billion tons in 2025, and demand will grow by 1% to 1.364 billion tons, resulting in a global refined - zinc supply surplus of 93,000 metric tons. In 2025, factors such as the复产, new production, and adjustment of mining plans of overseas zinc concentrates will significantly improve the tight - supply pattern of zinc mines. The overseas market mainly focuses on the Russian Ozernoye and Congo (Kinshasa) Kipushi projects as growth points, and the Irish Tara mine plans to reach full production in 2025. In the fourth quarter, domestic smelters are actively producing due to winter - storage demand, and the demand for domestic zinc mines is strong. However, domestic mines are reducing production due to seasonality and some mines' production control after completing their annual plans, resulting in a month - on - month weakening of supply. The domestic zinc - mine processing fee significantly declined in October. If the domestic supply remains tight, the imported zinc - mine processing fee is expected to decline further. Imported zinc mines are in a long - term loss, and smelters' purchasing willingness is low. The increase in the imported zinc - mine TC previously may lead to the recovery of overseas smelters' production, which may affect future imported - mine inflows, and the imported processing fee is also under downward pressure [26][27][28]. 3.2.2. Smelters' Raw - Material Inventories at a High Level, and the Price of By - Product Sulfuric Acid Rises - Due to the abundant supply at the raw - material end, smelters' raw - material inventories are at a high level. The rising by - product price further stimulates smelting enthusiasm, and domestic zinc - ingot production has increased significantly year - on - year in 2025. Since Q3, the internal - external ratio has decreased, and smelters have continuously snapped up domestic zinc mines due to the economic advantage of domestic mines. The domestic zinc - mine processing fee has peaked and declined, but the smelting - end raw - material inventory is abundant, and zinc - ingot production remained at a high level in September. According to SMM data, domestic zinc - ingot production in September was 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The total production from January to September was 5.0691 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.85%. Domestic smelters will start negotiating the zinc - mine processing fee for November with mines. Currently, domestic smelters' demand for raw materials is strong, and the zinc - mine processing fee will continue to decline in the context of a tight - mine pattern. At the beginning of November, the SMM imported zinc - concentrate index decreased by $8.5 per dry ton month - on - month to $110.25 per dry ton, and the average weekly SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 150 yuan per metal ton month - on - month to 3,250 yuan per metal ton. The comprehensive zinc - concentrate processing fee (after a 2/8 split) is 4,700 yuan/ton. The decline in TC squeezes the smelting - end profit, but the price of by - product sulfuric acid continues to rise under cost support. In October, the increase in sulfuric - acid prices was less than that at the cost end, and there may be a possibility of production reduction, which drives the trading activity in the smelting - acid market, and the price rises accordingly. However, downstream resistance to high prices is prominent, and the domestic sulfuric - acid market may oscillate at a high level in November [35]. 3.2.3. The Export Window Opens, and Zinc - Ingot Exports Increase Month - on - Month in October - According to the latest customs data, 505,400 physical tons of imported zinc concentrates were imported in September 2025, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative imported zinc - concentrate volume from January to September was 4.008 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. Although the imported zinc - mine window remains closed, the previously locked - price and long - term contract zinc mines of smelters are arriving at ports successively, and the arrival volume of imported zinc mines remains stable. In the fourth quarter, mines are reducing production seasonally, and with the winter - storage demand and the high - level refined - zinc production, domestic smelters' demand for zinc mines is strong. However, the loss of imported zinc mines in October continued to expand compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively snapping up domestic zinc mines instead of importing, resulting in light spot - purchase transactions of imported zinc mines. It is difficult for the imported zinc - mine volume in October to increase further. In September, the imported refined - zinc volume was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. The cumulative imported refined - zinc volume from January to September was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, 2,500 tons of refined zinc were exported. The LME 0 - 3 structure overseas once expanded to over $300 per ton, and the high - premium structure stimulated local - area deliveries. The Back structure weakened to below $100 per ton, but the LME zinc inventory remained below 40,000 tons, and the tight - supply pattern remained. Overall, the loss of zinc - ingot imports is over 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export window opens intermittently. It is expected that the zinc - ingot export volume of domestic smelters and traders will increase to about 10,000 tons [39][40]. 3.2.4. The "Silver October" Ends, and It's Difficult to Find Bright Spots in Demand in the Fourth Quarter - The galvanizing start - up rate was 55.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%. The galvanizing raw - material inventory was 12,660 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 367,000 tons. Overall, consumption in October was lower than expected, and black - metal prices were lackluster. Downstream pipe traders mainly made rigid purchases, and the sales of galvanized pipes were poor. Enterprises increased their finished - product inventory and reduced production to lower the start - up rate to prevent excessive inventory. The finished - product inventory increased slightly, and enterprises still plan to lower the start - up rate in the future to prevent inventory accumulation. In terms of die - cast zinc alloys, the start - up rate was 49.73%. The die - cast zinc raw - material inventory was 13,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 10,230 tons. Currently, the overall downstream demand is relatively weak. Traditional hardware orders such as luggage zippers, small ornaments, and medals are in weak demand, and the current overall demand for real - estate hardware orders is also weak. Recently, affected by aluminum and copper prices, alloy profit support is insufficient, and some enterprises have raised the alloy processing fee. Under this influence, downstream customers also have a certain wait - and - see attitude and mainly make rigid purchases. Looking forward to next week, some enterprises plan to take a holiday to digest in - plant inventory. The start - up rate of zinc - oxide enterprises was 58.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%. The zinc - oxide raw - material inventory was 2,417 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 5,740 tons. In the rubber - grade zinc - oxide sector, orders from large - scale tire factories are relatively stable, but the demand from some small - and - medium - sized enterprises is weak. In the ceramic - grade zinc - oxide market, the demand in the coarse - ceramic market is still relatively average, and recently, some enterprises have reported that the demand in the high - end ceramic - grade zinc - oxide sector has also weakened. In addition, the demand for feed - grade and electronic - grade zinc oxide is relatively normal [51][52]. 3.2.5. Real - Estate Sales Continue to Hit Bottom, and Investment Declines Expand - The market trading momentum continues to decline. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate development investment expanded, and the year - on - year decline in commercial - housing sales volume also expanded. From January to September, the national newly built commercial - housing sales area was 658 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, and the decline expanded by 0.8 percentage points. Real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year cumulatively, and the decline expanded by 1 percentage point. New construction decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points. The completed - area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points. The confidence in real - estate development investment is still weak. According to China Index Academy data, in September, the planned construction area of residential - land transactions in 300 cities decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the land - transfer fee decreased by 7.0% year - on - year. The year - on - year decline narrowed by 24.2 and 23.9 percentage points respectively compared with August. The industry's available funds are still under pressure, and the pressure on real - estate enterprises' funds directly affects the new - development and completion scale of the market. Currently, in addition to maintaining a positive attitude towards the development and construction of some products, enterprises mainly focus on optimizing and revitalizing existing inventory. In the short term, the overall scale - contraction situation in the industry will not change. In core cities, the incremental construction scale is expected to stabilize with the support of the fundamentals [66]. 3.2.6. The Policy of Trading in Old Cars for New Ones in the Auto Market Continues to Show Results - July and August are the traditional off - seasons for auto consumption, and the sales rush at the end of June overdrafted subsequent demand to a certain extent. However, the overall auto - market heat remained at a relatively high level, and the auto market still took the "dual - new" policy of trading in old cars for new ones and scrapping and renewing as the core growth point. In reality, affected by seasonal factors in summer and the transitional adjustment of the policy of trading in old cars for new ones, the growth rate slowed down periodically. In August, subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones restarted in various places, and many provinces refined the subsidy - distribution mechanism. Coupled with the intensification of local stimulus policies, the auto market showed a gradual recovery trend. According to the analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues to show results. Some regions that suspended the implementation of the policy resumed subsidies, and policies such as consumer - loan support stabilized consumer confidence. Enterprises continued to launch new models, helping the passenger - car market to operate stably, and sales increased year - on - year. According to the CAAM, in September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 2.9 million and 2.859 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16% and 12.5% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 15.9% and 13.2% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 21.241 million and 21.246 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and 13.7% respectively. In September, auto exports were 652,000, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% and a year - on - year increase of 21%. From January to September, auto exports were 4.95 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. Many places have made frequent dynamic adjustments to the policy of trading in old cars for new ones. Some regions such as Jiangsu, Guangxi, and Qinghai have announced the suspension of auto - replacement and renewal subsidies. On the one hand, to ensure the orderly use of the third - and fourth - batch funds by the end of the year, the fund - use plan is refined by field and time. On the other hand, the national subsidy in 2025 is a phased measure, and it is difficult to have the same - scale subsidy in 2026. The exemption amount for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, and the consumer - loan discount rate will be weakened [72][73]. 3.2.7. The Scheduled Production of White Goods for Both Domestic Sales and Exports Declines - According to the latest scheduled - production reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in November 2025 is 2.847 million units, a 17.7% year - on - year decrease from the actual production in the same period last year. The scheduled production of all three major white

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract fluctuated weakly last week. The results of the Sino - US high - level meeting were in line with market expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, but Powell's hawkish stance reduced the expectation of a December rate cut, and the rising US dollar was negative for zinc prices. China's October PMI declined month - on - month, and mild stimulus policies are expected. - Fundamentally, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to fall. In November, zinc smelting output is expected to increase by thousands of tons, with supply remaining high but the growth slowing. On the demand side, the demand for different zinc products varied. Overseas, the LME's new rules on positions may reduce the support for liquidity. - Overall, market risk appetite has cooled. China maintains high supply and weak demand, and social inventories are high, but zinc exports can relieve the pressure. The adjustment of LME's position system will weaken the squeeze - out pressure, and the zinc price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][9][10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Oct 24 | Oct 31 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,355 | 22,355 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 3019.5 | 3050 | 30.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 7.40 | 7.33 | - 0.07 | | | SHFE Inventory | 109168 | 103416 | - 5752 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 37,600 | 35,300 | - 2300 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 16.22 | 16.15 | - 0.07 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 60 | - 40 | 20 | Yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - Shanghai Zinc's main contract ZN2512 first rose and then fell last week. It was strong in the early part of the week due to positive macro - expectations and weakened later. The weekly change was flat, and the price moved up on Friday night. - LME Zinc's oscillation center moved up. Despite the rising US dollar, the strong overseas structure supported the price, with a weekly increase of 1.01%. - In the spot market, by October 31, prices and premiums varied in different regions. The supply was limited at the end of the month, and the spot premium increased slightly. Transactions were mainly between traders [5][6]. 3.3 Industry News - By October 31, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased by 400 yuan/metal ton, and imported ore processing fees decreased by 7.71 US dollars/dry ton. - In November, domestic zinc smelting output is expected to increase by thousands of tons. - The LME plans to introduce permanent rules to limit large near - month positions. - An explosion at Australia's Endeavor mine caused two deaths, and the company suspended operations. - A survey of 30 analysts shows that the average LME spot zinc price in 2026 is expected to be 2838 US dollars/ton, up 22% from the previous estimate. The expected supply surplus in 2025 is 80,000 tons, and in 2026 it is 239,000 tons [11][12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Lido Factors**: Refined zinc supply remains at a low level, supporting the firmness of zinc prices. Demand is in a seasonal peak season, and consumption expectations boost market sentiment [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The trend of accelerated inventory accumulation is emerging, and inventory pressure suppresses price increases. The pattern of oversupply in the domestic market continues, and the widening import losses restrain the market [3]. - **Trading Advisory Viewpoint**: The unilateral strategy is recommended to be cautiously bullish, with a focus on tracking the dynamics of the export window [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Processing Links and Terminal Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: The content includes the market sentiment index (weekly), weekly inventory - seasonality, and steel mill weekly production - seasonality [4]. - **Net Exports and Imports**: There are net export seasonality data for galvanized sheets (strips), color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide, as well as net import seasonality data for die - cast zinc alloys [7][9][10]. - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year, sales area cumulative year - on - year, and unsold area cumulative year - on - year, as well as 100 major cities'成交 land area and 30 major cities' commercial housing transaction volume are presented [12][14][16]. - **Infrastructure**: The cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion amount in transportation, warehousing and postal services, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, tertiary industry infrastructure construction, and power, heat, gas and water production and supply industries are shown [17][18]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume - seasonality, TC, and raw material inventory days are provided [20][22][26]. - **Zinc Ingot Production**: Monthly production - seasonality of SMM zinc ingots, China's monthly zinc ingot production + import volume - seasonality are included [23][24]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory data are presented [26][27]. - **Production Profit**: The production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises are shown [23]. Futures Disk and Spot Market Review - **Zinc Price Trend**: The trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index are presented [29][31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contracts are shown [30]. - **Price Spread**: LME zinc (spot/three - month): premium/discount, 100 - basis spread trends of zinc ingots in three places are presented [33][38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Although the zinc concentrate processing fee has been adjusted down, smelters are still profitable, and the supply of refined zinc continues to increase. The overseas inventory has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Coupled with the impact of the capital side, the LME zinc price is strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets has further intensified, and the export profit has further widened. The zinc price in Shanghai is likely to rise rather than fall, and one can try to go long at low prices. [4] - The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, attention should still be paid to the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption. [4] - The export window has opened, and some domestic zinc ingots have been delivered to warehouses in Southeast Asia. The export volume and frequency need to be monitored. If there is a large - scale delivery overseas, one should stop profit in time for the previous operation of shorting SHFE and going long LME, and change the strategy to go long SHFE and short LME in advance. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - In the mining end, domestic smelters have been continuously snapping up domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees. Imported ore is still at a loss, but due to the continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees, imported zinc concentrate traders have also reduced their quotes. [4] - At the smelting end, the recent decline in zinc prices and domestic TC has narrowed smelting profits. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and smelters' profits are still around 1,000 yuan/ton, with the smelting start - up rate remaining high. In October, although some domestic smelters carried out maintenance, some previously - maintained smelters resumed production, and the overall domestic refined zinc output may increase significantly. [4] - In terms of consumption, the traditional peak season for zinc consumption is passing, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [4] - Inventory data shows that as of October 23, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with October 20 and a decrease of 600 tons compared with October 16. The LME zinc inventory on October 23 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 275 tons compared with October 17. [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: One can try to go long on zinc in Shanghai at low prices. [4] - Arbitrage: One can pre - arrange the operation of going long SHFE and shorting LME according to the export situation. [4] Chapter 2: Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some market data indicators such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, etc. are listed. [6][12][15] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate production from January to August 2025 was 8.2907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 593,700 tons or 7.71%. In July, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 127,500 tons or 13.14%. [28] - In September 2025, SMM's domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, it is expected to be 300,900 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%. [28] - As of September, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 10.63 days to 26.3 days compared with the same period last year. Recently, although the raw material inventory of smelters has decreased month - on - month, it is still above the safety production margin. [28][42] - The inventory of zinc concentrates at major domestic ports increased by 10,800 tons to 391,400 tons month - on - month. [4][28] Zinc Ore Import - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.008 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. [38] - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the strong production enthusiasm of smelters driven by profits, the demand for zinc ore is high. However, the loss of imported zinc ore in October has further expanded compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively buying domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones. The spot import of imported zinc ore is light, and the import volume in October is expected to have no further room for growth. [30] Domestic Ore Total Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected reduction in imported zinc concentrates. The domestic zinc concentrate supply in October is expected to decrease. [41] Zinc Ore Processing Fee - The monthly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates in November is 3,000 yuan/ton; on October 24, the weekly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates was reduced by 150 yuan to 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $8.5/ton dry to $110.25/ton dry month - on - month. [46] - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,220 yuan/ton, and domestic smelters' production loss is about 700 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue). Including by - product revenue, smelters' profit is about 1,000 yuan/ton. [47] Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to August 2025, global refined zinc production was 9.1482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,700 tons or 0.14%; global refined zinc consumption was 8.9683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16,800 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 179,900 tons. [51] - In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%. The global refined zinc demand was 1.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The global refined zinc surplus was 47,900 tons. [51] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - In September 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.15%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; that of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 94.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.23%; and that of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 84.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. [54] - According to SMM data, the SMM China refined zinc output in September decreased by 26,100 tons or 4.17% month - on - month to 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The cumulative output from January to September was 5.069 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in October 2025 will be 622,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is expected to be 5.692 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. [54] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In September, the export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. [57] - In October, the domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the import of zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation. [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, there is an increase in both supply and demand, but refinery operations fall short of expectations due to factors like raw materials, resulting in tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has broken through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. With good refinery profits and an open import window, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply, and there is a need to be vigilant against a potential sharp decline in lead prices [1] - For the zinc market, the macro sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making domestic TC difficult to increase. The zinc price has received some support and is fluctuating upwards. With the continuous reduction of LME zinc inventories and the persistent LME 0 - 3 back structure, attention should be paid to overseas structural risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous day; the closing price of the main lead futures contract was 17,595 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic session) was 2,016.50 dollars/ton, up 0.22% [1] - The lead basis was - 295 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous lead futures contract was 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous lead futures contract was 45 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 79,514 lots, up 7.44%; the open interest was 83,846 lots, up 260.04%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.95, down 70.16% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 235,375 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 23,048 tons, down 2.89% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.57%, up 0.93 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 42.2%, up 7.1 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.36%, up 0.39 percentage points [1] - A secondary lead refinery in East China has decided to temporarily halt production, with only a small number of long - term orders to be fulfilled, and the resumption date is undetermined [1] Investment Strategy - A short position can be lightly established at high levels [1] Zinc Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,120 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the closing price of the main zinc futures contract was 22,355 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic session) was 3,019.50 dollars/ton, down 0.10% [1] - The zinc basis was - 235 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous zinc futures contract was - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous zinc futures contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 130,461 lots, down 20.62%; the open interest was 120,167 lots, down 3.67%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.09, down 17.60% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 37,600 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 65,849 tons, up 0.49% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 57.48%, down 0.57 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 53.13%, down 1.50 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.36%, down 0.77 percentage points [1] - On October 23rd, the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 225.89 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 221,889 lots, an increase of 300 lots [1] Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - Overseas premiums have strengthened further, LME inventories have continued to decline, and the risk of warehouse receipts has intensified. The export profit of refined zinc in China has continued to expand, and the profit of overseas selling for delivery has emerged, which will stimulate later exports and help reduce domestic social inventories. The domestic smelters are still actively purchasing domestic ores, and the domestic ore TC has continued to decline. Although imported ores are still expensive due to the internal and external zinc price ratio, there is also a possibility that the processing fees will follow suit. In the spot market, with the opening of the export window, the later social inventory is expected to accumulate less than expected, or even show a seasonal de - stocking trend, and the actual consumption performance exceeds expectations. Although smelting still has profits, the comprehensive smelting profit has narrowed due to the decline of domestic TC. If this situation persists or the sulfuric acid price drops, it will also hit the smelting enthusiasm, and the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. The macro - positive factors still exist, and the previous bearish logic of zinc prices has begun to change. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $338.74 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium/discount is - 55 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 210 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong zinc spot premium/discount is - 90 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin zinc spot premium/discount is - 55 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,030 yuan/ton and closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, an increase of 355 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 164,360 lots, and the open interest throughout the trading day was 124,740 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,025 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons compared with the previous period. As of October 23, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 34,700 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared with the previous trading day. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there was no significant increase in market purchases after the zinc price weakened last week. The fundamental situation remains one of strong supply and weak demand. However, the macro - level risk - aversion sentiment has eased, and with the continuous reduction of LME zinc inventories and the existence of overseas structural risks, Shanghai zinc has stabilized. It is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price dropped 2.02% to 21,780 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price fell 2.04% to 21,815 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined 1.41% to 2,942.5 dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 Raw Material End - As of October 17, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 140,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 380,600 tons, an increase of 41,300 tons. The CZSPT set the guidance price range for the purchase of imported zinc concentrate in Q4 2025 at 120 - 140 dollars/dry ton [25]. - As of October 16, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,980 yuan/metal ton. In August, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons, a 6.81% month - on - month decrease and a 30.60% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons, a 43.06% cumulative year - on - year increase [31]. - Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC continued to rise. On October 17, 2025, domestic TC was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 118.75 dollars/dry ton [35]. 3.3 Supply End - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has declined but remains considerable. As of October 16, the production profit was - 630 yuan/ton. In September, the domestic refined zinc output was about 600,000 tons [41]. - The import profit window is closed. As of October 17, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,529.70 yuan/ton. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 235,500 tons, a decrease of 31,500 tons year - on - year [44]. 3.4 Demand End 3.4.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 11.22 percentage points to 58.05%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises decreased [52][55]. 3.4.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys decreased by 1.96% and 1.92% respectively. The operating rate increased by 8.12 percentage points to 54.63%. The raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory decreased [64][67][71]. 3.4.3 Zinc Oxide - The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 0.47% to 21,000 yuan/ton. The operating rate increased by 1.05 percentage points to 57.13%. Both the raw material inventory and the finished product inventory decreased slightly [77][80][83]. 3.5 Inventory - As of October 16, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 153,100 tons, showing an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period [91]. - As of October 17, the SHFE inventory was 109,600 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 38,000 tons, showing a continuous decline [94]. 3.6 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From August 2025, the monthly supply - demand balance showed a surplus, with 51,000 tons in August, 28,000 tons in July, and 23,900 tons in June [100].

Report Title - **Title**: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Zinc [1] - **Date**: October 13, 2025 [2] - **Author**: Qi Yurong [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The current domestic zinc market has no substantial improvement in demand, while the supply remains loose. The fundamental situation maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with macro - sentiment disturbances, zinc prices may face pressure. Considering the continuous inventory reduction of LME zinc and the deepening of the back structure, the downward space of SHFE zinc may be limited under the boost of the external market. The operating range is expected to be between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 2.16% to 22,230 yuan/ton, SHFE zinc main contract closing price rose 2.04% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.95% to 2,984.5 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents historical data on basis, LME zinc spread (0 - 3), trading - to - holding ratio, and Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange - rate impact), as well as various spot spreads and inter - month spreads [13][15]. 2. Raw Material and Refining 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 140,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 339,300 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [20]. - **Profit**: As of October 9, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,006 yuan/metal ton. In August, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 30.60% [27]. - **TC**: Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC continued to rise. The CZSPT small group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [3][20]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - **Profit**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of October 9, the production profit was - 436 yuan/ton [38]. - **Production**: In September, the domestic refined zinc output was 600,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [38]. - **Import**: The import profit window was closed. As of October 10, the import profit of refined zinc was - 3,967.74 yuan/ton. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 235,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,500 tons [41]. 3. Downstream Consumption - Galvanizing - **Operating Rate**: The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 1.83 percentage points to 46.83%. Affected by the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the operating rate declined, and terminal demand was still below expectations [49]. - **Inventory**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory increased due to the arrival of point - priced goods during the holidays, while finished - product inventory decreased as some enterprises still shipped goods despite the decline in operating rate [52]. 4. Downstream Consumption - Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - **Price**: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys increased by 2.09% and 2.04% respectively [59]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy decreased by 0.35 percentage points to 46.51%. Some enterprises were still on holiday, and terminal orders had no substantial improvement [62]. - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory increased due to the arrival of long - term orders, and finished - product inventory decreased as some downstream enterprises restocked after the festival [65]. 5. Downstream Consumption - Zinc Oxide - **Price**: The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) increased by 1.9% to 21,400 yuan/ton [72]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 1.24 percentage points to 56.08%. Some large enterprises were on holiday, but some downstream enterprises restocked after the festival [75]. - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory decreased as some enterprises on holiday converted raw materials into finished products, and finished - product inventory increased slightly [78]. 6. Inventory - **Social Inventory**: As of October 9, the three - place inventory of SMM zinc ingots was 141,400 tons, an increase in inventory. The inventory in the bonded area was 8,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [86]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of October 10, the SHFE inventory was 106,950 tons, an increase, and the LME inventory was 37,950 tons, a continuous decrease [89]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides a monthly supply - demand balance table from April 2024 to July 2025, showing the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of each month [95].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures bottomed out and rebounded. The macro - situation is centered around the Fed's October interest - rate cut expectation, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payrolls report. The improvement in demand has led to inventory reduction, and the low overseas inventory and strong structure support the zinc price. However, the resumption of production in domestic refineries and new capacity input will keep the supply high, limiting the upward elasticity of zinc prices. Overall, the long - and short - term forces are balanced, and the continuous adjustment space of zinc prices is limited [3][4][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From September 19th to September 26th, the price of SHFE zinc remained unchanged at 22,045 yuan/ton; the price of LME zinc rose from 2898.5 to 2922.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 24 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.61 to 7.54. The inventory of SHFE increased by 4666 tons to 99315 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 4025 tons to 43,800 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.66 million tons to 15.04 million tons. The spot premium decreased from - 50 to - 60 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc, ZN2511, fluctuated around 22,000 yuan/ton after bottoming out and rebounding. The final price was 21,980 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.27%. LME zinc first declined and then rose, supported by the 30 - day moving average, and finally closed at 2886.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.41%. In the spot market, by September 25th, the trading was dominated by traders' shipments, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed, with weakening purchasing power and a slight decline in spot discounts [6][7]. 3. Industry News - In October, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the average imported ore processing fee was 87.51 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 16.83 dollars/dry ton. Antamina Mine's zinc production is expected to reach 450,000 tons this year, a 67% increase from last year, offsetting a 12% decline in copper production [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external ratio, spot and LME premiums, inventory situations of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream end - user enterprise operating rates [15][17][18].