行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 美联储宣布降息 25 个基点符合市场预期，FOMC 声明中体现将进一步调 整利率的幅度和时机，预计 26 和 27 年各降息一次，利好逐步消化，商品市场 看多氛围有所减弱，有色表现分化，锡、铜领涨，锌、镍小幅收跌。Zn601 在 2.3 万一线徘徊，收于 22995 元/吨，跌 70，跌幅 0.30%，缩量减仓。持仓结构 来看，01 合约前 20 席位多空双减，净多头减 6 手，02 合约多空双增，净空头 增 1570 手。基本面来看，TC 下行叠加矿端供应持续转紧，炼厂 1 ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 23025 | 23080 | 23110 | 22970 | 15 | 0.07 | 3565 | -865 | | ...

日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 行业 锌期货日报 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 数据来源： Wind ，建信期货研究发展部 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 23145 | 23270 | 23290 | 22930 | 195 | 0.85 | 4790 | - ...

有色金属周报-锌 下游观望情绪较重，锌价上方空间或有限 2025年12月8日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美联储降息预期增强，市场风险偏好提升，加之国 | | | | | 内政治局会议召开，宏观情绪整体偏暖。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋紧。国产周度TC均价环比降低200元/金属吨至 | | | | | 1,850元/金属吨，进口锌精矿指数环比下降3.5美元/干吨至 | | | | | 57.75美元/干吨。12月国内炼厂减产规模进一步扩大，对 | | | | | 锌精矿需求有所减少，但国内锌精矿供给同样偏紧，矿端 | | | | | 紧缺状况未见缓解，预计12月TC延续跌势。 | 宏观情绪偏暖，叠加供给端收缩， | | |  | 成本利润：TC持续下调，产业链利润再次从炼厂端转至矿 | 锌价走势偏强，但随着锌价不断 | 下方支撑稳 | | | 端，上周锌价走势偏强，加之副产品收益补充 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore's visible inventory has increased, but the zinc concentrate TC has continued to decline, pressuring zinc smelting profits and leading some high - cost zinc smelters to cut production. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally. Although the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slightly decreased, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory has slightly increased after considering in - transit inventory and factory inventory. Recently, the LME zinc monthly spread has risen again, and the net long position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc has increased, driving zinc prices to be strong in the short term. However, in the medium term, the weak status quo of the zinc industry does not resonate with the strong macro - sentiment expectations, and the upward space of zinc prices is expected to be limited [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Industry Data**: Zinc concentrate domestic TC is 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index is 61 US dollars/dry ton. Zinc concentrate port inventory is 279,000 physical tons, and factory inventory is 644,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 56.54%, with raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and finished product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 51.30%, with raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 57.37%, with raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] - **Price Review**: From November 3rd to December 4th, SHFE zinc weighted closed up 1.96% to 22,885 yuan/ton, and the total SHFE zinc positions decreased by 19,700 lots to 202,000 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,990 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 70 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 50 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 40 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong spread of 110 yuan/ton [12] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 140,300 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 62,000 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis is 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 45 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 52,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 5,100 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is 186.85 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 43.5 US dollars/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio is 1.063, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss is - 4,393.18 yuan/ton [12] 3.2 Macro Analysis - The report provides multiple macro - related charts, including the US monthly fiscal revenue and expenditure and deficit MA12, the ratio of the US national debt to GDP, the Fed's balance sheet asset and liability structure, dollar liquidity, China and US manufacturing PMIs, and US manufacturing new orders and unfinished orders. However, there is no specific text analysis [15][17][20][21] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 330,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 12.3% and a month - on - month change of 5.2%. From January to October, the total zinc ore output was 3.0706 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.0%. In October 2025, the net zinc ore imports were 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net zinc ore imports were 4.3406 million dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5.0239 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2% [26][28] - **Zinc Concentrate TC**: The domestic zinc concentrate TC is 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index is 61 US dollars/dry ton [29][30] - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the zinc ingot output was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 21.4% and a month - on - month change of 2.8%. From January to October, the total zinc ingot output was 5.6863 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. In October 2025, the net zinc ingot imports were 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net zinc ingot imports were 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5.9671 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [34][36] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rate and Inventory**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 56.54%, with raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and finished product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 51.30%, with raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 57.37%, with raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [40] - **Apparent Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the domestic zinc ingot cumulative apparent demand was 5.804 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [42] 3.5 Supply - demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the domestic zinc ingot cumulative supply - demand difference was a surplus of 163,100 tons [53] - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 42,600 tons. From January to September, the overseas refined zinc cumulative supply - demand difference was a surplus of 139,900 tons [56] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased to 140,300 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 62,000 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis is 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 45 yuan/ton [61] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 52,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 5,100 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is 186.85 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 43.5 US dollars/ton [64] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio is 1.063, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss is - 4,393.18 yuan/ton [65] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc has increased again. The net long position of LME zinc investment funds has decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has decreased. From a position perspective, it is bullish in the short term [68]

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is experiencing a mixed scenario with prices showing slight increases in the short term, but overall demand remains weak, leading to potential downward pressure on prices in the near future [5]. Price Overview - On November 26, the spot price for 0 zinc ingots in Shanghai was quoted at 22,400.00 CNY/ton, which is a premium of 45.0 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 22,355.00 CNY/ton [1]. - A nationwide zinc price overview on the same date shows various market prices for 0 zinc ingots, with Shanghai prices at 22,450 CNY/ton and Guangdong at 22,190 CNY/ton [2]. Futures Market - The Shanghai zinc futures market closed on November 26 with the main contract at 22,355.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04%. The highest price reached was 22,425.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 22,280.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 96,212 lots [2]. Inventory Levels - As of November 25, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warrants at 44,950 tons, with a slight decrease in canceled warrants to 3,050 tons. Total zinc inventory increased by 575 tons to 48,000 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a zinc warehouse receipt of 73,819 tons, which is an increase of 922 tons compared to the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - According to Hongyuan Futures research, domestic smelters are actively purchasing domestic ore due to economic considerations, maintaining a tight supply of domestic ore. The processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate have decreased to 2,350 CNY/metal ton, while the import zinc concentrate processing fee index has dropped to 73.05 USD/dry ton [5]. - The overall demand remains weak, particularly with outdoor construction in northern regions slowing down due to colder weather and environmental regulations affecting downstream operations. The zinc market fundamentals are still weak, and short-term prices may face pressure [5]. - In the medium term, there is an expectation of tightening at the ore end in the fourth quarter, which may provide some support for zinc prices, although the overall market remains cautious due to structural risks [5].

Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Macro cooling and continuous LME zinc warehousing led to a downward shift in the center of LME zinc. On the 18th, LME inventory increased by 3,550 tons to 39,975 tons, with warehousing in Singapore, Kaohsiung, and Hong Kong. The low - inventory concern eased, the Cash - 3M Back structure dropped to 104.97, and the SHFE/LME ratio recovered to 7.5. The domestic non - ferrous market continued to correct, and SHFE zinc broke below the middle Bollinger Band. The main contract closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.58%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 20 yuan/ton [7]. - The intraday market weakened compared to the previous day, but the spot premium increased. The Shanghai market had a premium of 180 yuan/ton over the December contract, the Tianjin market reported a discount of 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market reported a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the January 2026 contract. Some zinc ingot exports led to a significant decrease in inventory, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly [7]. - With the reduction of northern mines in China and the concentrated release of smelters' winter stockpiling demand, the supply of domestic zinc ore was tight. The panic buying by smelters pushed down the processing fees. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decline slightly month - on - month. The tightening of the ore end was transmitted to the ingot end, providing support for zinc prices. In the short term, zinc prices were expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton, and the current price was at the lower end of the range. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,200 yuan [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - Futures market data: For SHFE zinc 2512, the opening price was 22,460 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,310 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,465 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,265 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.58%, with a position of 82,326 and a position change of 76,806. For SHFE zinc 2601, the opening price was 22,495 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,330 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,495 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,295 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or 0.65%, with a position of 82,373 and a position change of - 9,077. For SHFE zinc 2602, the opening price was 22,540 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,345 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,540 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,305 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan or 0.73%, with a position of 29,010 and a position change of - 49,321 [7]. 2. Industry News - On November 18, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated in the range of 22,435 - 22,555 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand in the range of 22,455 - 22,575 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc in the range of 22,365 - 22,485 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 150 - 160 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,435 - 22,475 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract and a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The mainstream in the Ningbo area quoted against the 2512 contract. In the first period, the pre - sale of Qilin brand quoted a delivered premium of 180 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded in the range of 22,240 - 22,430 yuan/ton, Zijin brand in the range of 22,470 - 22,560 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots around 22,170 - 22,270 yuan/ton. The Huludao brand was quoted at 23,320 yuan/ton. The common 0 zinc quoted a discount of 50 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, and Zijin brand quoted a premium of 180 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. The Tianjin market reported a discount of about 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8]. - In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded in the range of 22,215 - 22,350 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a discount of 70 - 25 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract and a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. In the first period, holders of Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, and Lanxing brands quoted a discount of 70 - 25 yuan/ton. In the second period, Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing brands quoted a discount of 70 - 35 yuan/ton to the net price [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented figures such as the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots (in ten thousand tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE month - to - month spreads, with data sources including Wind and SMM [12][14]

Group 1: Zinc Supply Dynamics - Zinc ore supply is tightening marginally, with domestic zinc concentrate production in October at 330,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that global zinc ore production in August was 1,097,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2% and a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [2] - Domestic zinc smelting plants are actively purchasing local ore due to a significant drop in processing fees, which fell to 2,600 yuan per metal ton, down 1,300 yuan from August's peak [2] Group 2: Refined Zinc Production - Global refined zinc production in August was 1,227,000 tons, with a monthly surplus of 47,900 tons [3] - Domestic refined zinc production in October was 617,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 21% [3] - The tightening zinc ore supply may lead to a slight reduction in refined zinc production as smelting plants face profit pressures [3] Group 3: Demand Trends - Overall demand from downstream processing enterprises remains stable, with some replenishment observed in mid-October when zinc prices fell [4] - However, the rising zinc prices in November may suppress downstream demand, particularly in the galvanized pipe sector due to weak steel prices and pressures in real estate and infrastructure [4] - Orders in sectors like power transmission and photovoltaic supports have shown resilience, while environmental factors may impact operational rates as winter approaches [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment requires attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and precious metal trends affecting zinc prices [4] - Despite a lack of significant tightness in the market, the marginal changes in supply dynamics are expected to provide support for zinc prices [4] - Domestic inventories are slowly declining, and the current market sentiment may weaken, leading to potential volatility in zinc prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, zinc prices may be under pressure due to factors such as weak consumption and the Fed's hawkish remarks dampening rate - cut expectations. Previous short positions can be held. [3] - In the medium - to - long term, the mine end remains tight, processing fees are likely to fall rather than rise, refinery operations may decline, and combined with export expectations, there is strong support below the zinc price. After a correction, long positions can be considered. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Zinc prices showed an oscillatory decline. The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.66% to 22,420 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract fell by 1.30% to 22,425 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) dropped by 1.70% to 3,014.5 US dollars/ton. [12] 3.2 TC Continues to Fall, Focus on Ingot - End Operation 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of November 14, the inventory of imported zinc ore at Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports decreased by 43,000 tons to 305,700 tons. The CZSPT set the guidance range for the purchase US - dollar processing fee of imported zinc concentrate before the end of the first quarter of 2026 at 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton. [30] - As of November 13, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,398 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. [37] - Both domestic and imported TC for zinc concentrate continued to decline. [38] 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - Due to the oscillatory decline of zinc prices and the fall of TC, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 13, the production profit was - 1,338 yuan/ton. It is expected that the zinc ingot output in November will slightly decline to around 610,000 tons. [47] - The import profit window for refined zinc remained closed. As of November 14, the import profit was - 4,292.04 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons. [51] 3.3 Environmental Restrictions Lifted, Galvanizing Operation Rate Rebounds - The galvanizing operation rate increased by 2.46 percentage points to 57.59%. The operation of enterprises affected by environmental restrictions has basically recovered. In terms of demand, the demand in the north is relatively flat, while that in the south is relatively strong, and export orders are relatively stable due to tariff negotiations. [57] - The raw material inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased due to high - level oscillatory zinc prices and large - scale enterprises' demand for long - term order goods. The finished product inventory also increased. [60][61] 3.4 Poor Demand, Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Operation Rate Declines - The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.64% to 23,165 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.63% to 23,715 yuan/ton. [70] - The die - casting zinc alloy operation rate decreased by 0.65 percentage points to 50.3%. Some enterprises reduced production due to poor demand. [73] - The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased as enterprises reduced spot purchases and consumed long - term orders at the beginning of the month. The finished product inventory increased as production and shipment slowed down. [76][77] 3.5 Slower Shipment, Zinc Oxide Finished Product Inventory Continues to Accumulate - The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 0.92% to 21,500 yuan/ton. [83] - The operation rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 1.32 percentage points to 56.31%. Some northern enterprises were affected by environmental protection. In the terminal market, the tire factory's purchase of rubber - grade zinc oxide is relatively stable, but there is caution about the future tire export market. [86] - The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises increased as some enterprises received raw material shipments. The finished product inventory slightly increased due to high - zinc - price - induced downstream wait - and - see sentiment and slower shipment. [89] 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Continues to Improve 3.6.1 Inventory Status - As of November 13, the SMM zinc ingot inventory in three locations was 148,800 tons, showing a slight decline. The inventory in the bonded area was 3,800 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. [96] - As of November 14, the SHFE inventory was 100,900 tons, showing an increase. As of November 13, the LME inventory was 39,000 tons, continuing to rise. [99] 3.6.2 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From March to September 2025, the monthly supply - demand balance of zinc showed fluctuations, with some months having a surplus and others a deficit. For example, in September 2025, the supply - demand balance was - 0.20 million tons. [105]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically focusing on zinc, dated November 14, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown led to a recovery in risk appetite, but the increased policy divergence within the Fed and the hawkish shift of dovish voting members dampened the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Base metals on the outer market collectively declined, dragging down the center of Shanghai zinc to 22,425 yuan/ton, erasing the early-week gains. The correlations between the US dollar, the RMB, and LME zinc were 98% and 89% respectively this week, compared with 10% and 13% last week. The Shanghai-London ratio repaired to 7.40 at a low level, with the exchange ratio at 1.00. The pattern of a stronger outer market and a weaker domestic market persisted, with the import loss remaining above 4,000 yuan per ton. The opening of the export window led to an increase in zinc ingot exports. Near the delivery this week, the market delivery volume increased, while downstream consumption was flat, and the spot outbound volume was lower than the inbound volume. The domestic social inventory fluctuated narrowly around 160,000 tons. The premium of the Shanghai market over the December contract was 100 yuan/ton, Tianjin reported a premium of 130 yuan/ton over December, and Guangdong reported a discount of 60 yuan/ton over the December contract, narrowing the Shanghai-Guangdong spread. In terms of positions, both long and short positions held by investment companies or credit institutions decreased, with the net short position decreasing by 3,672 lots. The warrant holding report showed a bullish trend, and the concentration of large positions was low [8] Operation Suggestions - Due to the lack of key economic data during the US government shutdown, the remarks of Fed officials dominated the expectations. According to FedWatch data, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December dropped to 51.6%, with the probabilities of a cut and no cut almost equal, and market sentiment shifted. Since November, there have been successive deliveries at LME zinc warehouses in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung. As of the 12th, LME zinc inventory continued to increase by 575 tons to 35,875 tons, a cumulative increase of 2,050 tons from the beginning of the month. The Cash-3M spread's back structure slightly converged from around 138 at the beginning of the month to around 120, alleviating the tight supply situation. In China, the reduction of production at northern mines and the concentrated release of winter stockpiling demand by smelters led to a shortage of domestic ore supply. The panic buying by smelters pushed the processing fees down continuously. The SMM domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 200 to 2,650 yuan/ton, and the imported ore TC decreased by 4.17 to 98.37 US dollars/ton. The decline in TC squeezed the smelting profit, but the sulfuric acid price still rose steadily. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decline slightly month-on-month. With the end of the peak season downstream and frequent environmental protection warnings, the trend of ferrous metals was relatively weak, and the orders for galvanized and die-cast zinc were relatively light, making it difficult to boost the consumption side. Overall, as a series of data will be released after the US government resumes operation, the market's assessment of the impact will be more cautious, and LME zinc will maintain a high-level shock. Against the background of the realization of increased exports in China, the supply-demand pattern has improved marginally. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the support of the tight ore logic on zinc prices, but it is still constrained by the previous high of 22,800 yuan. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 22,300 - 22,800 yuan [9] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - The panic buying by smelters pushed the processing fees down continuously: Due to the winter reduction and shutdown of mines and the winter stockpiling demand of smelters, the processing fees for zinc ore continued to decline under the tight ore supply pattern. The average weekly SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton to 2,650 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive processing fee for zinc concentrate (after a 2/8 split) was 4,160 yuan/ton. The SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 4.17 US dollars/dry ton to 98.37 US dollars/dry ton. One ton of zinc produces two tons of acid as a by-product. The mainstream transaction price of 98% sulfuric acid in the East China market was 920 - 1,130 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of 98% smelting acid was 780 - 870 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in the price of raw material sulfur supported the stable increase of the sulfuric acid price from the cost side [18] - The overall refined zinc output in November may decline slightly: According to SMM, in October, China's refined zinc output increased by more than 17,000 tons month-on-month and about 21% year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to October increased by 10% year-on-year, lower than the expected value. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in November will decline by 0.9% month-on-month and increase by nearly 20% year-on-year. It is expected that the cumulative output from January to November 2025 will increase by more than 10% year-on-year [18] - The opening of the export window led to an increase in zinc ingot exports: In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.61%. The cumulative import volume of refined zinc from January to September was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 19.27%. The export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons. The processing fees showed signs of stopping rising, increasing the production pressure on smelters. The overall performance of the peak season in consumption was not obvious, and the consumption support was insufficient. The social inventory increased to more than 160,000 tons. With the outer market stronger than the domestic market, the import loss of zinc ingots was more than 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export window opened. The export volume of zinc ingots by domestic smelters and traders increased to about 10,000 tons, and the import volume was mainly from long-term contracts [19] Demand Side - The operating rate of galvanizing was recorded at 57.59%, a month-on-month increase of 2.46%. The raw material inventory of galvanizing was 13,530 tons, and the finished product inventory was 365,600 tons. There were not many policies related to real estate and infrastructure during the peak season this year, and the improvement in project construction was limited. Orders for towers and photovoltaics showed some improvement. In the fourth quarter, it entered the seasonal off-season, and it was difficult for consumption to improve. Downstream traders purchased on a just-in-time basis, and there was no obvious improvement in enterprise orders. In November, the heating season began in the northern region, and environmental protection inspections increased, restricting the construction progress. Overall, the trend of ferrous metals was relatively weak. There may be a rush to complete projects before the Spring Festival, and the demand will be slightly postponed. The operating rate in the fourth quarter improved month-on-month but was weaker than the same period last year [20] - The operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy was recorded at 50.30%, a month-on-month decline of 0.65%. The raw material inventory of die-cast zinc was 11,840 tons, and the finished product inventory was 11,290 tons. The overall downstream demand was relatively light. The demand for traditional hardware orders such as luggage zippers, small ornaments, and medals was weak, and the overall demand for real estate hardware orders was also relatively light. The increase in aluminum and copper prices pushed up the production cost of alloys, and the net profit of enterprises shrank from the beginning of the year to less than 100 yuan/ton. Under this influence, there was also a certain wait-and-see sentiment downstream [20] - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was recorded at 56.31%, a month-on-month decline of 1.32%. The raw material inventory of zinc oxide was 2,365 tons, and the finished product inventory was 6,075 tons. In the rubber-grade zinc oxide sector, the orders from large tire factories were relatively stable, but the demand from some small and medium-sized enterprises was weak. In the ceramic-grade zinc oxide market, the demand in the coarse ceramic market was still relatively average, and recently, some enterprises reported that the demand in the high-end ceramic-grade zinc oxide sector had also weakened. In addition, the demand for feed-grade and electronic-grade zinc oxide was relatively normal [21] Spot Market - Domestic inventory decreased by 0.17 million tons to 157,900 tons: As of November 13, the total inventory of SMM's seven major zinc ingot markets was 157,900 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from November 6 and a decrease of 1,700 tons from November 10, indicating a decrease in domestic inventory. Affected by the continuous opening of the export window and the reduction of arrivals at warehouses due to smelter production cuts, the inventory in the Shanghai area decreased significantly during the week. In the Guangdong area, downstream consumption was relatively flat, and the spot outbound volume was lower than the inbound volume. At the same time, near the delivery, the market delivery volume increased, driving a slight increase in inventory. Overall, the inventory in the original three major markets decreased by 2,000 tons, and the inventory in the seven major markets decreased by 1,700 tons [22] - LME zinc had a cumulative delivery of 2,050 tons: Since November, there have been successive deliveries at warehouses in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung. On the 12th, LME zinc inventory continued to increase by 575 tons to 35,875 tons, a cumulative increase of 2,050 tons from the beginning of the month. The Cash-3M spread's back structure slightly converged from around 138 at the beginning of the month to around 120 [22]