Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market's restocking enthusiasm is low before the Dragon Boat Festival. Strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level, but consumption may face a test in June, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline after June. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$20.27/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is flat at 22,830 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the premium is up 25 yuan/ton to 440 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is down 10 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, and the premium is up 15 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price is flat at 22,840 yuan/ton, and the premium is up 25 yuan/ton to 450 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On May 29, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,300 yuan/ton and closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 184,818 lots, an increase of 22,593 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 119,380 lots, a decrease of 3,627 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 22,530 yuan/ton and the lowest 22,225 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM is 75,000 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons compared with the same period last week. As of May 29, 2025, the LME zinc inventory is 141,375 tons, a decrease of 2,075 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Traders continue to hold up prices, and the spot premium rises. The absolute price fluctuates, which does not meet the downstream's psychological expectations, so the pre - festival restocking enthusiasm is poor [3] - **Supply**: A zinc smelter in South China extended its maintenance due to an accident, and the specific resumption time is undetermined, which caused the zinc price to fluctuate and rise, but the rise lacks continuous power. The overseas mine output in the first quarter was lower than expected, but domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory. The TC in June will continue to rise, and smelting still makes a profit at the current TC price, so the supply pressure remains [3] - **Consumption**: The strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level. Consumption may face a test in June. Since the time window for rush - exporting is approaching the end and there is an over - drafting situation, consumption may weaken month - on - month after June [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices have been fluctuating within a range following a significant drop due to tariff announcements, with domestic zinc prices hovering between 21,900-22,800 CNY/ton and LME zinc prices around 2,700 USD/ton, influenced by macroeconomic sentiments rather than strong fundamental pressures [2][8]. Macroeconomic Factors - The US-China trade talks made significant progress in mid-May, with both sides agreeing to suspend additional tariffs for 90 days. However, the US has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, causing short-term volatility in financial markets [3]. - The bond market is showing signs of panic, with Japan's 20-year bond auction underperforming and Moody's downgrading the US credit rating, leading to a decline in the US dollar, US bonds, and US stocks simultaneously [3]. - China's social financing and M2 growth rates are stable, but new RMB loan data is disappointing, indicating a potential slowdown in key economic indicators [3]. Supply Side Dynamics - Global zinc mine production reached 1.0184 million tons in March, a month-on-month increase of 10.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative production from January to March was 2.902 million tons, up 3.75% year-on-year [4]. - China's zinc concentrate production in April was 297,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%. Zinc ore imports surged to 494,700 tons in April, a 37.6% month-on-month increase and a 72.6% year-on-year increase [4]. - Domestic smelters are experiencing a rise in processing fees due to ample supply from both imported and domestic sources, with processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate averaging 3,650 CNY/ton in June [4]. Production Stability - Global refined zinc production in March was 1.1219 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 9.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. China's refined zinc production in April was 576,000 tons, a slight decrease from March but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [5]. - The profitability of smelters has improved, with production losses remaining below 500 CNY/ton, leading to expectations of increased production in the near future [5]. Inventory Levels - Domestic refined zinc inventories are gradually declining, with SMM's seven-city zinc ingot inventory at 80,400 tons as of May 22, which is low compared to previous years [6]. - LME zinc inventories have also seen a slight increase but remain at a low level, which may provide some support for zinc prices [6]. Demand Trends - Demand is showing signs of weakening as the peak season ends, with the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises recovering to around 62%, while die-casting zinc alloy enterprises have seen a drop to 56.41% [7]. - The construction sector remains stable, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in new housing starts and steady growth in infrastructure investment [7]. - However, production in the white goods sector has seen limited growth, with significant declines in refrigerator and television production [7]. Summary - Overall, the impact of tariffs is diminishing, and a weaker dollar is providing some support for non-ferrous metals. Despite low inventories providing price support, the expectation of increased supply against weak demand suggests that zinc prices may struggle to rise significantly in the short term, likely remaining in a weak oscillation [8][9].

Group 1 - The current spot price of 0 zinc ingots in Shanghai is reported at 22,610.00 CNY/ton, which is 175.00 CNY/ton higher than the futures main price of 22,435.00 CNY/ton [1] - The national zinc price overview on May 20 shows various prices for 0 zinc ingots, with Shanghai prices at 22,660 CNY/ton and 22,610 CNY/ton, while Guangdong's price is at 22,350 CNY/ton [2] - On the futures market, the main contract for zinc closed at 22,435.00 CNY/ton on May 20, with a slight decline of 0.13% [2] Group 2 - LME zinc inventory on May 20 recorded 156,700 tons, a decrease of 4,075 tons or 2.53% from the previous day, with a cumulative reduction of 11,200 tons over the past week, representing a 6.68% decrease [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) zinc warehouse receipts recorded 1,526 tons, down 175 tons from the previous trading day, with a significant cumulative decrease of 6,182 tons over the past month, equating to an 80.2% reduction [3] Group 3 - According to Nanhua Futures research, while there is a long-term expectation of supply easing, current inventory levels are at historically low absolute values, and the recent weakening of the Shanghai-London price ratio has temporarily closed the import window, indicating short-term supply tightness [4] - Demand-side indicators show recent improvements in terminal operating rates, but overall caution remains among downstream enterprises, leading to insufficient purchasing enthusiasm [4] - Short-term zinc prices are expected to remain weak and volatile, with a long-term bearish outlook [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both single - side and arbitrage strategies is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Affected by the positive sentiment of Sino - US talks, commodity prices generally rose, but zinc prices were relatively weak due to weak fundamental data, increasing TC, supply pressure, an open zinc ingot import window, and signs of inventory accumulation. If the inventory accumulation trend continues, the downside space for zinc prices may open. In the spot market, high premiums have significantly declined due to increased inventory and more relaxed supply. Consumption in May may face challenges, with the possibility of a month - on - month decline after May [3] Summary by Related Content Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium was - 26.13 dollars/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 22720 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 50 yuan/ton to 430 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 22720 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 50 yuan/ton to 430 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped 60 yuan/ton to 22690 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 60 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 12, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22360 yuan/ton, closed at 22490 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 229910 lots, an increase of 89893 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 118030 lots, a decrease of 1140 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22080 - 22515 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of May 12, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 8.55 million tons, an increase of 0.14 million tons from the same period last week. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 169850 tons, a decrease of 475 tons from the previous trading day [2]

第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 宏观：5月12日讯，5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。中方代表团在新闻发布会上表示，双方就彼此关心的经贸问 题开展了深入交流。会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机 制，明确双方牵头人，就各自关切的经贸问题开展进一步的磋商。中美双方将尽快敲定有关的细节，并且将于5月12日发布会谈达成的联合 声明。 核心观点 基本面：主要经济体与美国开始有不同程度的贸易谈判接洽，国内出台多项货币、财政刺激措施，宏观氛围趋于缓和，锌价延续震荡整理。 从大的基本面格局看，供给端锌矿周期性供给转宽正在落地，2025年内外几个大的锌矿项目均有增产安排，全球锌矿产量回升带动锌矿现货 TC边际持续走强。矿端增产传导至冶炼端，在冶炼利润回暖之下，国内炼厂开工率提升，延期检修，精炼锌产量边际恢复，且预计矿端和冶 炼端的增产形势会延续下去。需求一侧，贸易争端可能拖累全球经济增速，锌需求总量存收缩隐忧，即使各国快速达成新的贸易协议，全球 经济增速维持韧性，锌的总需求也难有增量预期，维持存量为主。无论对需求是偏乐 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated weakly. The Fed maintained the interest rate but kept the possibility of a rate cut. The US and the UK reached a tariff agreement, and China and the US held talks. China introduced a package of financial policies, and exports in April showed strong resilience, improving market risk appetite [3][9]. - Fundamentally, mines are steadily ramping up production, and processing fees at home and abroad have increased month - on - month. However, as zinc prices have fallen, mines are less willing to offer concessions, and the increase in processing fees has slowed. In May, smelters are both reducing and resuming production, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain flat month - on - month. The import window for zinc ingots has gradually opened since late April, and some imported goods have flowed in recently, keeping the supply pressure at a relatively high level [4][9]. - On the demand side, after the holiday, enterprises resumed work, and the operating rates of various primary sectors increased to varying degrees. High - voltage orders supported the tower orders, but galvanized pipe enterprises planned to cut production due to price competition. Electronic alloy orders were good, while traditional hardware accessory orders were poor, and some alloy terminal export orders decreased recently. Orders for rubber - grade and feed - grade zinc oxide decreased, while ceramic - grade orders were stable [4][9]. - Overall, the China - US trade negotiations and the release of domestic favorable policies have restored market sentiment, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Fundamentally, there is an expectation of marginal weakening. The high output of refined zinc and the supplement of imported zinc ingots keep the supply pressure high. As the peak season is coming to an end, the enthusiasm for purchasing and restocking has weakened, and the support of the low - inventory logic has been weakened. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly to find support [4][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - From April 30th to May 9th, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,440 yuan/ton to 22,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,588 dollars/ton to 2,636 dollars/ton, an increase of 48 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.67 to 8.41, a decrease of 0.26; the SHFE inventory decreased from 48,477 tons to 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 173,900 tons to 170,650 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons; the social inventory increased from 7.7 million tons to 8.33 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons; the spot premium increased from 160 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 340 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2506, continued to fluctuate weakly, closing at 22,190 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.11%. LME zinc fluctuated sideways, closing at 2,655.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.55% [6]. - In the spot market, by May 9th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,825 - 22,955 yuan/ton, with a premium of 580 - 590 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract. In the second half of the week, the inflow of imported zinc ingots improved market arrivals, but downstream purchases were average, and traders gradually lowered the premium quotes, resulting in weak spot trading [6]. - In terms of inventory, by May 9th, the LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a weekly decrease of 3,250 tons; the SHFE inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from last week. By May 8th, the social inventory was 8.33 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons from April 30th and a decrease of 0.08 million tons from May 6th [7]. - Macroscopically, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. The FOMC statement said that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased. Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Bezant during his visit to Switzerland. The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement. China's three departments issued a package of financial policies, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates. China's inflation remained low in April, with CPI at - 0.1% year - on - year and PPI at - 2.7% year - on - year. Exports maintained resilience, with an 8.1% growth rate in April [7][8] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 9th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3,500 yuan/metal ton and 40 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/metal ton for domestic and no change for foreign [10]. - A galvanizing plant in the north recently put into operation a new 150,000 - ton galvanizing production line, with a total designed capacity of 500,000 tons, expected to be fully put into production in 2027 [10]. - Lundin Mining's Neves - Corvo mine produced about 27,700 tons of zinc concentrate and about 2,000 tons of lead concentrate in the first quarter, up 4.5% and 24% year - on - year respectively; Zinkgruvan produced about 21,300 tons of zinc concentrate and about 7,600 tons of lead concentrate, up 10.7% and 12.4% year - on - year respectively. These two mines were officially acquired by Swedish mining company Boliden on April 16th this year [10]. - Teck is considering shifting the products of its Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska from the Chinese market to other regions to avoid tariff risks. The mine's output accounts for about 5% of the global zinc supply and 2.5% of lead, and currently more than 20% of its zinc concentrate is sold to China [11]. - Glencore's self - owned zinc production in Q1 2025 was 213,600 tons, 4% higher than in Q1 2024, and its self - owned zinc production guidance for 2025 is 930,000 - 990,000 tons [11]. - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal output in Q1 2025 totaled 57,400 tons, a 10% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 14% increase year - on - year. Its zinc concentrate production guidance for 2025 is 250,000 - 255,000 tons [11] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums and discounts, inventory situations, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [13][16][18]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-08 锌锭库存低位制约锌价下跌空间 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-39.30 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌90元/吨至22770元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨55元/吨至515元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌140元/吨至22770 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨5元/吨至515元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌140元/ 吨至22760元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨5元/吨至505元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-07沪锌主力合约开于22300元/吨，收于22210元/吨，较前一交易日下跌210元/吨，全天交易日 成交155956手，较前一交易日增加40900手，全天交易日持仓116701手，较前一交易日增加4986手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22530元/吨，最低点达到22210元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-05-06，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.41万吨，较上周同期减少-0.18万吨。截止2025-05-07，LME 锌库存为171400吨，较上一交易日减少15 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-04-29 锌价冲高乏力 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-33.73 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌300元/吨至22880元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨80元/吨至450元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌330元/吨至22910 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨50元/吨至480元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌300元 /吨至22960元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨80元/吨至530元/吨。 期货方面：2025-04-28沪锌主力合约开于22630元/吨，收于22520元/吨，较前一交易日下跌225元/吨，全天交易日 成交149791手，较前一交易日减少53425手，全天交易日持仓117883手，较前一交易日减少4544手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22650元/吨，最低点达到22380元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-04-28，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.59万吨，较上周同期减少-0.71万吨。截止2025-04-28，LME 锌库存为179325吨，较上一交易日减少725吨。 市 ...

一、行情回顾 周五夜盘，沪锌期货主力合约报收于22550.00元/吨，震荡走跌0.86%。 二、基本面汇总 4月25日，LME锌库存录得18.01万吨，较上一日减少2250吨，减少幅度为1.23%；最近一周，LME锌库 存累计减少1.53万吨，减少幅度为7.83%；最近一个月，LME锌库存累计增加3.35万吨，增加幅度为 22.84%。 2025年4月25日上海期货交易所期锌库存3185吨，较上一交易日库存减少450吨。其中上海地区库存303 吨，持平；广东地区库存1706吨，减少350吨；江苏地区224吨，持平；浙江地区0吨，持平；天津地区 952吨，减少100吨。 2025年3月进口锌精矿35.95万吨，环比降低22.09%，同比增加47.16%，1-3月累计锌精矿进口量为121.78 万吨，累计同比增加36.62%。 三、机构观点 五矿期货：锌元素过剩下中期看空剧本维持不变，利润快速回暖刺激锌冶开工维持高位，进口窗口临近 或有进口锌锭流入，锌锭供应预期宽松。初端企业逢低补库较多，初端原料库存处历年高位，预计金三 银四过后下游采买逐步转弱，但当前国内社会库存去库较多，国内月差维持相对高位。此外，Antam ...