Economic Data and Events - Key economic data and events to focus on include speeches from Federal Reserve officials regarding economic outlook and banking policies [1] - Germany's industrial production and trade balance for April will be released, along with the Halifax house price index for the UK [1] - France's industrial production and trade balance for April are also scheduled for release [1] - Eurozone's first quarter GDP year-on-year revision and employment figures will be published [1] - Retail sales data for April in the Eurozone will be reported [1] - Canada and the US will release employment figures for May, including unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data [1] - The total number of oil rigs in the US will be updated for the week ending June 6 [1]

瑞士5月未季调失业率 2.8%，预期2.8%，前值2.80%。 ...

4月货物发送量同比增长1.6%。 3月薪资同比增长0.1%，预期增长0.5%。 俄罗斯6月2日当周CPI周环比上升0.05%，2025年迄今累计上升3.39%。 4月零售销售同比增长1.9%，预期上升2.9%。 4月失业率2.3%，符合市场预期。 4月建筑活动同比增长7.9%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term core logic is that Trump's trade war is fluctuating, the risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest are rising, the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term Trump trade war fluctuations, increased risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest, rising stagflation risk in the US economy, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump plans to raise import steel tariffs to 50% from June 4th. The EU may counter - retaliate if the US does not lower tariffs. The Russia - Ukraine - Istanbul peace talks broke down, and Iran may reject the US nuclear proposal [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: The Fed acknowledges the potential simultaneous rise of inflation and unemployment. The US manufacturing industry continues to shrink under the shadow of tariffs. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index is under pressure and回调, while the US Treasury yield is oscillating strongly [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is oscillating and rebounding, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67241.46 billion US dollars, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [9]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and other inflation - related indicators show certain changes, with some indicators decreasing [11]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP shows a decline in both annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate remains stable, and other labor market indicators also have corresponding changes [11]. - **Other Data**: Data on the real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys all show different trends [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate range at different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing a general trend of gradually increasing the probability of lower interest rates over time [14].

Group 1 - The U.S. job market shows unexpected strength with April JOLTS job openings at 7.391 million, surpassing market expectations of 7.1 million [1][3] - The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals is currently at 1.0, indicating a balance between supply and demand, similar to pre-pandemic levels [3] - The healthcare, social work, and business services sectors contributed significantly to the increase in job openings, while education sectors are experiencing layoffs [3] Group 2 - April hiring reached a new high of 5.6 million, but layoffs also increased to 1.79 million, the highest since October of the previous year, indicating a volatile job market [5] - The number of voluntary resignations decreased from 3.35 million to 3.2 million, suggesting that workers are hesitant to leave their jobs [5] - Economists predict that the upcoming non-farm payroll report will show a decrease in new jobs to 125,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.2% [7] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range, with potential rate cuts not expected until September [7] - There are concerns regarding the reliability of the JOLTS data due to a low sampling rate, which is only half of what it was a few years ago [7][8] - The job market is described as a "Rashomon" scenario, with conflicting interpretations of the data from different sources [8]

6月3日消息，比利时4月份失业率从3月份修订后的6.3%上升至6.4%。 ...

6月3日消息，欧元区4月失业率降至6.2%，预期为6.2%。 ...

欧元区4月份失业率降至6.2%，预期为6.2%。 ...

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone for April is reported at 6.2%, matching expectations and showing a revision from the previous value of 6.3% [1]

欧元区4月失业率、5月CPI年率及月率初值将于十分钟后公布。 ...