WTI原油： 消息面：美东时间1月3日凌晨，美国对南美某国发起军事行动，并对其领导人实施抓捕，引发全球地缘 政治动荡，市场关注度较高，但因处于周末休市时间，国内外原油期货盘面没有交易，接下来市场将密 切关注周一及以后的原油走势。基本面美国原油产量维持高位，OPEC+产量小幅提高，全球总石油库 存高位，美国商业库存偏低，但炼厂开工率持续提升至高位后，库存转移至成品油持续累库。总体看， 原油供需仍偏向过剩，但美国、委内瑞拉地缘升级，关注短期对原油的利多影响。技术面区间震荡偏 弱。 技术面：技术面来看，日线摆动图表显示原油主趋势为下行，但市场动能正逐步走高。若油价突破 58.88美元，主趋势将转为上行；若跌破56.65美元，市场动能则会转向下行。若油价能站稳57.60美元上 方，意味着日内买方力量进场。上行压力增强的情况下，轻质原油期货有望测试另一关键50%回撤位 58.62美元，以及作为长期趋势指标的50日移动平均线58.77美元。若油价未能突破57.60美元，则释放出 卖方进场信号，价格可能下探56.86美元至56.38美元的次级回撤区间。若该区间缺乏逆势买方支撑，油 价或将跌破56.38美元，届时55.61美 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中金外汇研究） 中金外汇研究 图表1：汇率预测表 (上段为中枢、下段为区间) 资料来源：中金公司研究部 1月重要事件展望 美国经济数据的变化 12月公布的美国非农就业和通胀数据显示美国经济转弱。这令市场开始怀疑美联储的观望态度是否会更早结束。考虑到11月的数据 仍然受到了政府关门的扰动，因此1月初的就业和通胀数据可能更容易改变美联储对于经济的看法和市场的货币政策的定价。考虑到12月份的经济数据可 能因为政府重开而环比改善。因此，1月份经济数据对美元的下行压力可能会有所减轻。 1月美联储会议以及新美联储主席的提名 新年第一次美联储政策会议将于1月末举行，由于在12月的会议中美联储改变了预期管理措辞，因此如果经济数 据不出现太大的下行压力，我们认为美联储大概率会选择维持政策利率不变，以此放慢降息节奏以观察经济数据的变化。我们可观察美联储对于美国经济 和未来利率路径的暗示，如果有迹象显示美联储对于美国经济的自信程度有所下降，那么市场或开启对3月降息的定价，美元的下行压力或进一步加大。 除了月底的会议，新美联储主席的人选或对美元汇率有重要的影响。12月上半，当白宫经济顾问委员会主席凯文哈塞特的 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Performance - The silver market has experienced a dramatic surge, with prices increasing by 130% in the second half of 2025, significantly outperforming gold [3] - This price increase is attributed to a combination of supply-demand imbalance and capital inflow, with over 80% of silver's industrial use in sectors like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers [3] - The global supply of silver has been constrained, with a supply gap of 3,660 tons in 2025, expected to widen in 2026 due to insufficient investment in primary mining [3] Group 2: Export Control Implementation - China has officially implemented silver export controls starting January 1, 2026, with 44 out of 50 companies passing the qualification review for state-owned trade [6] - The export control aims to ensure domestic industrial demand for silver and maintain supply chain security, reflecting silver's strategic importance in key industries [6] Group 3: Market Regulation and Speculation - A notice regarding the regulation of silver and industrial metals has circulated, emphasizing the prohibition of hoarding and malicious speculation, while requiring production companies to prioritize industrial silver supply [9] - Regulatory bodies will conduct joint inspections of abnormal trading activities and impose strict penalties for price manipulation [9] Group 4: Market Outlook and Predictions - Analysts have differing views on the silver market's future, with optimistic forecasts suggesting prices could reach $100 per ounce, while more cautious estimates predict an average price between $55 and $65 [9] - The core issue remains the supply-demand imbalance, with industrial demand expected to sustain long-term price increases despite potential short-term volatility from regulatory measures and Federal Reserve policy changes [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant surge in prices, with gold prices reaching 1360 RMB per gram in early 2026, up from around 800 RMB per gram a year prior, indicating a dramatic increase that has led to both excitement and anxiety among investors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the London spot gold price saw a cumulative increase of over 60%, setting more than 50 historical highs throughout the year, making it one of the best-performing mainstream assets [3]. - Global gold demand reached a historic high of 3640 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, with total demand soaring to 3840 billion USD, also a record [3]. - By January 2, 2026, spot gold prices peaked at 4402.21 USD per ounce before settling around 4332 USD, reflecting intense market volatility [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - The rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, persistent geopolitical tensions, and active gold purchases by central banks [3]. - Central banks have become a significant pillar of gold demand, with gold accounting for approximately 22% of global foreign exchange reserves, a 7 percentage point increase over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Investment Trends - In 2025, China's domestic gold ETF saw an increase in holdings by 79.015 tons, a year-on-year growth of 164.03%, with total holdings reaching 193.749 tons by September [6]. - Several gold-related stocks in the A-share market doubled in value during 2025, with companies like Zhaojin Mining reporting a net profit increase of 55.45% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - Consumer attitudes towards high gold prices are divided, with some opting to make necessary purchases early, while others express regret over missed opportunities as prices continue to rise [8]. - Different gold investment channels exhibit unique characteristics, with physical gold bars being suitable for long-term holding, while bank accumulation gold allows for smoother price fluctuations [8]. Group 5: Market Volatility and Future Outlook - The gold market has shown increased volatility, with significant price fluctuations observed in late 2025, leading to concerns about potential profit-taking and market corrections [10]. - The World Gold Council's report outlines four potential scenarios for the gold market in 2026, ranging from moderate price fluctuations to significant increases depending on economic conditions [10]. Group 6: Changing Pricing Logic - The traditional gold pricing framework based on U.S. real interest rates and the dollar index has diminished in explanatory power, giving way to a diversified pricing system influenced by fiat currency credit and geopolitical factors [12]. - The relationship between the dollar and gold is evolving, with instances where both may rise simultaneously due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets during global crises [12].

Group 1 - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility on the first trading day of 2026, with gold and silver initially rising before gold suddenly reversed its gains [2][4] - On December 31, 2025, precious metals saw a broad correction, with New York gold futures dropping over 1% and silver futures plummeting by 8.91% [3] - On January 2, 2026, spot gold opened high, reaching over $4400 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.89%, while silver peaked at $74.34 per ounce, driven by low domestic silver inventories and increased demand [4] Group 2 - By the end of the trading day on January 2, 2026, spot gold fell below $4310 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 0.21%, and silver also retreated below $74 [5] - Data from January 2 indicated that major jewelry brands maintained stable prices, with slight variations in gold prices across different brands [6] - Physical gold stores in Jinan saw increased foot traffic due to promotional activities, with significant discounts attracting consumers [7] Group 3 - The popularity of lower-weight gold jewelry items surged, with consumers purchasing small gold items as gifts for the upcoming Spring Festival [9] - High-end gold products experienced strong sales, as evidenced by long queues at luxury jewelry stores following the announcement of new products [11] - Institutions maintain a long-term optimistic outlook on gold, citing factors such as a weak dollar and geopolitical risks supporting gold prices [12] Group 4 - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict significant increases in gold prices, with forecasts of $4900 and $5055 per ounce, respectively [13] - The outlook for silver is more cautious, with concerns about potential price corrections despite long-term demand from technology and green industries [12][13] - Recent changes in U.S. interest rate expectations, driven by resilient labor market data, may exert short-term pressure on precious metal prices [14]

1月2日美股开盘，道指盘中一度跳水，纳指拉涨。中概股则全线大涨，黄金有所回落。 晚间，美股集体高开后道指盘中一度跳水，纳指涨约1%。 中概股全线大涨或受港股暴涨影响，港股截至收盘，恒生指数涨逾2.7%，恒生科技指数涨4%。 此外，韩国、新加坡、菲律宾等亚太股市均集体拉涨。 此外，人民币也在最近不断拉涨也是中国资产上涨的原因之一，截至发稿，美元兑离岸人民币升破6.97。 黄金方面，截至发稿，现货黄金突然回落，不过仍保持在4340美元上方，今日曾一度突破4400美元。此外，现货白银也回落至74美元下方。 个股方面，特斯拉微涨。 特斯拉最新公布的2025年第四季度交付量418227辆，同比减少16%；第四季度汽车产量434358辆，同比减少5.5%。特斯拉全年交付量164万辆，同比减少 8.6%。 值得注意的是，纳斯达克中国金龙指数暴涨，截至发稿大涨超4%。个股方面，百度暴涨超10%，公司建议分拆昆仑芯于港交所主板独立上市，昆仑芯已 提交上市申请。 此外，万国数据涨逾8%，叮咚买菜涨逾7%。 2026年美联储的降息预期以及持续发酵的地缘政治紧张局势，成为推动本轮黄金价格走高的两大核心因素。 芝加哥商品交易所集团上调 ...

1月2日美股开盘，道指盘中一度跳水，纳指拉涨。中概股则全线大涨，黄金有所回落。 晚间，美股集体高开后道指盘中一度跳水，纳指涨约1%。 个股方面，特斯拉微涨。 特斯拉最新公布的2025年第四季度交付量418227辆，同比减少16%；第四季度汽车产量434358辆，同比 减少5.5%。特斯拉全年交付量164万辆，同比减少8.6%。 值得注意的是，纳斯达克中国金龙指数暴涨，截至发稿大涨超4%。个股方面，百度暴涨超10%，公司 建议分拆昆仑芯于港交所主板独立上市，昆仑芯已提交上市申请。 此外，万国数据涨逾8%，叮咚买菜涨逾7%。 中概股全线大涨或受港股暴涨影响，港股截至收盘，恒生指数涨逾2.7%，恒生科技指数涨4%。 此外，韩国、新加坡、菲律宾等亚太股市均集体拉涨。 此外，人民币也在最近不断拉涨也是中国资产上涨的原因之一，截至发稿，美元兑离岸人民币升破 6.97。 黄金方面，截至发稿，现货黄金突然回落，不过仍保持在4340美元上方，今日曾一度突破4400美元。此 外，现货白银也回落至74美元下方。 2026年美联储的降息预期以及持续发酵的地缘政治紧张局势，成为推动本轮黄金价格走高的两大核心因 素。 芝加哥商品交易所集 ...

①美股三大股指期货走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.36%，标普500指数期货涨0.54%，纳指期货涨 0.96%； ②欧股集体走高，德国DAX指数涨0.30%，英国富时100指数涨0.52%，法国CAC40指数涨0.35%，欧洲 斯托克50指数涨0.63%； ③热门中概股美股盘前多数走高，百度盘前涨逾10%，哔哩哔哩涨逾4%，阿里巴巴涨逾3%； 【时政新闻】 ①美国对部分跨境汇款征收1%汇款税； ②特朗普称将就伊朗骚乱事件进行干涉； ③美国"星链"将降低约4400颗卫星轨道高度； ④据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为14.9%，维持利率不变的概率为85.1%。到3 月累计降息25个基点的概率为51.2%，维持利率不变的概率为42.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 5.9%； 【市场动态】 【公司新闻】 ①百度计划分拆昆仑芯业务并于港交所IPO。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a stabilization after a significant drop, with short-term volatility remaining under pressure, and the outlook suggests a potential for high-level fluctuations supported by fundamental factors [1][2][4]. Price Movements - Gold prices fell over $200 in a single day but have shown signs of stabilization, with key support levels identified at $4300, $4274, and $4200, while resistance levels are at $4335, $4373, and $4400 [1][5]. - As of the latest trading session, gold rebounded to a high of $4397 but faced resistance below the $4400 mark, currently trading around $4386 [1][4]. Market Drivers - The recent surge in the precious metals sector has led to increased margin requirements by the CME, prompting some investors to take profits, which contributed to the recent volatility [2][5]. - Despite the recent drop, gold has risen 64% in 2025, marking its strongest performance since 1979, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank buying [2][5]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that after the significant drop, gold is stabilizing and adjusting at high levels, with support levels at $4353, $4324, and $4300, and resistance at $4400 and $4450 [3][6]. - Technical indicators suggest a potential for a rebound, with the MACD showing a slowing death cross and KDJ and RSI indicators indicating upward movement [6].

UNforex 1月2日讯（分析师 Stephen）2026年首个交易日，全球金融市场仍笼罩在节假日氛围之中，整 体波动有限。周五欧洲时段，美元指数在98.00关口上方维持窄幅整理，主要股指期货小幅走高，涨幅 介于0.3%至0.7%之间，显示资金在年初阶段依然保持谨慎配置。 欧洲早盘，黄金延续此前反弹走势，XAU/USD 围绕每盎司4375美元一线震荡，当日涨幅接近1%。市 场对美国在2026年进一步放松货币政策的预期，为金价提供中期支撑；与此同时，全球地缘政治不确定 性抬升，强化了黄金的避险吸引力。 在低利率预期背景下，持有黄金的机会成本持续下降，新年初资金对避险资产的配置意愿保持稳定。需 要注意的是，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）近期上调黄金与白银期货保证金水平，或在一定程度上抑制 短线追涨动能。同时，部分交易员选择在假期前后进行仓位调整，阶段性获利了结现象仍然存在。 外汇市场整体延续平稳格局。周五早盘，英镑/美元继续反弹，站稳1.3450上方。市场预期，若新任美 联储主席政策立场偏向温和，美元可能面临一定调整压力，从而对英镑形成支撑。英国央行此前已将基 准利率下调至3.75%，并重申将采取循序渐进的宽松路径 ...