Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The U.S. January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.9, with employment sub - index hitting a new low since last year but still expanding for six consecutive months, and output reaching the highest level since August 2025. The EU Commission plans to extend the suspension period of anti - tariff measures against the U.S. [2] - For copper, the dollar index is under pressure, which is positive for the non - ferrous sector. However, the spot market has sufficient supply, demand is cautious, and LME inventory accumulation may suppress prices. Short - term copper prices will fluctuate. [2] - For aluminum, the macro - sentiment warms up, but industrial drivers are limited, and domestic inventory accumulates. The price is expected to fluctuate. [2] - For zinc, geopolitical tensions are rising, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The domestic processing fee is at a low level, smelting profit is inverted, and production is expected to decline. Zinc prices will follow the sector to fluctuate. [2] - For nickel, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is stable. Indonesia's nickel - related policies and supply - side disturbances may affect prices. Short - term nickel prices are high, and in the long - term, high global inventories may suppress prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term. [2] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Price Indicators - LME non - ferrous metal futures prices showed various changes, such as copper at $12,921.5 with a 2.28% change and nickel at $18,705 with a 3.71% change. SHFE prices also had different changes, like aluminum at 23,990 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change and nickel at 145,380 yuan/ton with a 2.81% change. [1] Inventory Indicators - LME non - ferrous metal inventories and their changes varied. For example, LME copper inventory was 170,525 tons with a 26.05% change, and LME zinc inventory was 111,325 tons with an 11.43% change. SHFE inventories also had different trends, such as SHFE aluminum inventory increasing from 141,725 tons to 197,053 tons with a 6.01% change. [1][2] Ascending and Descending Water Indicators - LME and SHFE non - ferrous metal ascending and descending water showed different changes. For example, SHFE copper's ascending and descending water changed from - 66.1 yuan/ton to 16.78 yuan/ton with an - 82.8 change. [2] Price - to - Price Ratio Indicators - The current price - to - price ratios of non - ferrous metals and their changes were presented. For example, the copper price - to - price ratio was 7.84 with a 7.81% change, and the zinc price - to - price ratio was 7.51 with a - 1.05% change. [2] Near - month to Continuous Third - month Spread Indicators - The current spreads of SHFE non - ferrous metals and their changes were shown. For example, the copper spread changed from - 290 yuan/ton to - 950 yuan/ton with a - 660 change. [2]

据报道，面对明尼苏达州移民突袭致两名美国公民死亡的全国性哗然，美国总统特朗普宣布调整当前的 高压遣返政策。他已派遣立场相对温和的"边境事务主管"汤姆.霍曼前往明尼阿波利斯缓和局势，并分 别与州长、市长通话，考虑展开独立调查并缩减联邦特工部署规模。白宫暗示，若地方配合执法，将撤 走部分边境巡逻人员。 摘要今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于1144.96元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报 1137.60元/克，涨幅0.31%，最高触及1148.03元/克，最低下探1125.00元/克。目前来看，黄金T+D短线偏 向看涨走势。 今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于1144.96元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报1137.60元/ 克，涨幅0.31%，最高触及1148.03元/克，最低下探1125.00元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨走 势。 【要闻速递】 然而，政策转向面临阻力。霍曼虽被视为"温和派"，但仍支持大规模遣返;白宫坚称信任强硬派官员， 并将危机责任归咎于地方"煽动者"。分析指出，特朗普正陷入两难：既要回应民意压力，又难以背离其 核心议程。 此举被视为特朗普对其激进移 ...

摘要今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1138.50元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1133.47元/ 克，跌幅0.41%，最高触及1141.09元/克，最低下探1116.29元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看涨走 势。 今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1138.50元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1133.47元/克， 跌幅0.41%，最高触及1141.09元/克，最低下探1116.29元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 工行纸黄金于2026年1月27日10:27报1132.76元/克，日内微跌0.48%，延续此前强势走势后进入短期盘 整。国际金价XAU/USD站稳5093美元/盎司高位，为纸黄金提供坚实定价基准。技术面显示，RSI维持 在65附近，未现超买拐点;MACD红柱虽缩量但仍位于零轴上方，多头动能未衰。关键阻力位聚焦1140 元/克(对应5100美元/盎司)，支撑位下移至1100元/克整数关口，若失守或回测1085元/克。市场情绪受美 联储降息预期与全球央行持续购金支撑，避险需求稳定，短期震荡上行格局未改。 不过，十仓雅和也指出， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the lead market is experiencing a supply contraction due to both policy and seasonal factors, which is supporting prices [2] - Recent data on US durable goods orders exceeded expectations, indicating resilience in economic demand, which has led to a reduction in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The lead price has shown a slight increase but is expected to stabilize due to cautious market sentiment and adjustments in trading rules [1] Group 2 - The supply side of the lead market is facing rigid contraction, primarily due to stricter environmental regulations and seasonal production halts, which have limited overall capacity release [2] - Despite a seasonal slowdown in downstream operations, there is immediate support in the spot market due to concentrated stocking by distributors ahead of the holiday [2] - The current strong pricing is not driven by speculative trading but is based on rigid supply, cost support, and optimistic expectations for post-holiday demand [3] Group 3 - The spot market is experiencing reduced trading activity as the holiday approaches, with logistics slowing down, yet prices remain strong due to firm holding intentions from suppliers [3] - Short-term forecasts suggest that futures prices will be influenced more by macro sentiment and expectations for post-holiday demand, with a tendency for strong fluctuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The heavy machinery sector in Hong Kong is experiencing a significant rise, with SANY International hitting a new high and recording an 8-day consecutive increase, indicating strong market sentiment and expectations for a sales peak post-Spring Festival [1] Industry Summary - The engineering machinery industry is maintaining stable order levels ahead of the Spring Festival, with clear expectations for a sales surge after the holiday [1] - The demand for global mining machinery may be at a turning point due to strengthened expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and rising prices of mineral commodities, suggesting a long-term upward trend in the industry [1] Company Summary - SANY International has received a substantial number of mining equipment orders, with an expected growth in order scale from approximately 5 billion RMB last year to three times that by 2028, supported by growth in after-sales service revenue [1] - The order delivery ratio for SANY's port equipment business has reached a historical high, with order visibility extended to 2027 [1]

Key Points Summary Industry Overview - The mining machinery industry is expected to enter a new cycle of prosperity due to supply shortages and rising prices of metal commodities, influenced by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][2] Company Recommendations XCMG Machinery - Leading in complete open-pit mining machinery, comparable to Caterpillar and Komatsu - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 13 billion (including spare parts), a year-on-year increase of 50% - Target for 2030 mining machinery revenue is 40 billion, with a CAGR of 25-30% [1] SANY International - Mining machinery accounts for 40% of total revenue - Overseas mining trucks are expected to contribute significantly to growth in 2026, with overseas mining machinery expected to exceed 50% of mining machinery business (6 billion) - Channel model adjustments are anticipated to enhance profitability; target for overseas mining machinery business in 2028 is 13 billion, aiming for over 100% growth in three years [1] Shantui - Leading in mining bulldozers, aiming to create a complete open-pit excavation solution - Expected sales of mining equipment to account for over 10% in 2025 [2] NPE Mining Machinery - Leading in wear-resistant parts for mineral processing, comparable to Meiyit Electric Steel - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 1 billion, with over 50% from overseas - Anticipated new product launches and overseas capacity expansion could lead to a new performance upturn, with a mid-term revenue target of 2 billion and profit target of 400 million by 2028 [2] New Sharp Co., Ltd. - Main business in hard alloys and rock drilling tools, comparable to Sandvik - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 1.8 billion, with 40% from overseas; recognized as a leading comprehensive solution provider for mining consumables [2] Nanmin Group - Main business in crushing and screening machinery, comparable to Metso/Sandvik - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 800 million, with 20% from overseas - Strategic changes include signing a ten-year operation contract for a large iron ore project and investing in a Zimbabwean gold mine, transitioning to an "equipment + operation" overseas model [2] Zhejiang Mining Co. - Main business in crushing and screening machinery, comparable to Metso/Sandvik - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 700 million, with 20% from overseas - Strategic changes include acquiring a lead-silver mine in Kazakhstan, initiating a dual-driven development phase of "mining machinery overseas + mining operation" [2]

Group 1 - Heavy machinery stocks in Hong Kong continue to rise, with SANY International increasing over 6% to reach a new high and recording an 8-day consecutive increase [1] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group rose by 2.2%, while First Tractor Company and Zoomlion both saw increases of nearly 2% [1] - The engineering machinery industry is expected to maintain stable orders until mid-January 2026, with clear expectations for a sales peak after the Spring Festival [1] Group 2 - According to China Merchants Securities, the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the strengthening of commodity prices may signal a turning point for global mining machinery demand, suggesting a long-term upward trend in the industry [1] - SANY International is receiving a significant number of mining equipment orders, with an expected growth from approximately 5 billion RMB last year to three times that by 2028, supported by growth in after-sales service revenue [1] - The order delivery ratio for SANY's port equipment business has reached a historical high, with order visibility extended to 2027 [1]

2026年01月27日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 744.70 | 742.00 | 746.30 | 534.80 | 535.40 | 538.00 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 685.90 | 682.55 | 681.50 | 497.95 | 499.60 | 501.00 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 65.75 | 65.70 | 69.80 | 35.80 | 34.70 | 34.75 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | 9.68% | 9.71% | 10.32% | 7.17% | 6.93% | 6.91% | | | 持仓量 ...

昨日（1月27日）有色金属板块逆市领涨全行业，中金黄金、兴业银锡、铜陵有色等11股涨停，有色 ETF华宝（159876）场内价格暴涨4.77%，全天成交额2.21亿元，量价齐创历史新高！ 伴随火热的行情，资金狂涌！有色ETF华宝（159876）昨天单日吸金1.74亿元，拉长时间来看，近10日 狂揽7.17亿元。截至1月26日，该ETF最新规模21.6亿元，刷新上市以来的高点！ 消息面上，昨日（1月26日）现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司的关键心理整数关口，全球金融市场得以 见证历史性记录的诞生。华西证券指出，受美联储降息预期、美元信用不稳、美国中期选举以及地缘政 治不确定性的影响，金价有望进一步上涨。 固然市场整体看涨黄金后市表现，东方金诚指出，短期需警惕投机资金获利了结风险，金价波动可能加 大*。华泰证券建议，中配有色金属板块*，即在自己的基金组合中占比10%-20%，既能够分享有色金 属上涨红利，还能够分散风险。 有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（017141）的标的指数，涵盖贵金属（避险）、战略金属（成 长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把握整个板块的贝塔行情。 昨日（ ...

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 美国股市连续第四个交易日上涨，通信服务和科技板块领涨，本周将公布重要的科技公司财报。 日元走强导致日本出口商和汽车制造商股价下跌，日经指数和东证指数均下跌约2%。 由于日元波动对企业盈利的影响存在不确定性，日元波动对股市整体而言是负面因素。欧洲股市小幅上 涨，材料和公用事业板块领涨，与大宗商品市场的强劲表现相呼应。 债券 美国国债上涨，两年期国债拍卖需求强劲，表明市场对美联储今年晚些时候降息的预期仍然是美国政府 债券潜在收益的动力。地缘政治新闻减少也帮助推低了收益率。 欧洲债券市场上涨，法国债券领涨，持续的预算谈判进展推动法国和德国主权债券利差降至18个月以来 的最低水平。 上周日本国债市场的动荡引发了关于货币（日元干预）、全球政府债券（市场普遍担忧以及当前日本国 债收益率下的需求）以及日元套利交易可行性的进一步讨论。 外汇和大宗商品 大宗商品普遍上涨，彭博商品指数在过去五个交易日上涨7%（全部为上涨日）。白银和黄金的涨幅被 天然气近80%的年初至今涨幅所超越，这归因于严寒天气影响了供暖需求。 尽管当日白银上涨了6%，但由于获利回吐，白银价格较盘中高点下跌了近8%。受市场猜测日 ...