摘要今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1138.50元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1133.47元/ 克，跌幅0.41%，最高触及1141.09元/克，最低下探1116.29元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看涨走 势。 今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1138.50元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1133.47元/克， 跌幅0.41%，最高触及1141.09元/克，最低下探1116.29元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 工行纸黄金于2026年1月27日10:27报1132.76元/克，日内微跌0.48%，延续此前强势走势后进入短期盘 整。国际金价XAU/USD站稳5093美元/盎司高位，为纸黄金提供坚实定价基准。技术面显示，RSI维持 在65附近，未现超买拐点;MACD红柱虽缩量但仍位于零轴上方，多头动能未衰。关键阻力位聚焦1140 元/克(对应5100美元/盎司)，支撑位下移至1100元/克整数关口，若失守或回测1085元/克。市场情绪受美 联储降息预期与全球央行持续购金支撑，避险需求稳定，短期震荡上行格局未改。 不过，十仓雅和也指出， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the lead market is experiencing a supply contraction due to both policy and seasonal factors, which is supporting prices [2] - Recent data on US durable goods orders exceeded expectations, indicating resilience in economic demand, which has led to a reduction in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The lead price has shown a slight increase but is expected to stabilize due to cautious market sentiment and adjustments in trading rules [1] Group 2 - The supply side of the lead market is facing rigid contraction, primarily due to stricter environmental regulations and seasonal production halts, which have limited overall capacity release [2] - Despite a seasonal slowdown in downstream operations, there is immediate support in the spot market due to concentrated stocking by distributors ahead of the holiday [2] - The current strong pricing is not driven by speculative trading but is based on rigid supply, cost support, and optimistic expectations for post-holiday demand [3] Group 3 - The spot market is experiencing reduced trading activity as the holiday approaches, with logistics slowing down, yet prices remain strong due to firm holding intentions from suppliers [3] - Short-term forecasts suggest that futures prices will be influenced more by macro sentiment and expectations for post-holiday demand, with a tendency for strong fluctuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The heavy machinery sector in Hong Kong is experiencing a significant rise, with SANY International hitting a new high and recording an 8-day consecutive increase, indicating strong market sentiment and expectations for a sales peak post-Spring Festival [1] Industry Summary - The engineering machinery industry is maintaining stable order levels ahead of the Spring Festival, with clear expectations for a sales surge after the holiday [1] - The demand for global mining machinery may be at a turning point due to strengthened expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and rising prices of mineral commodities, suggesting a long-term upward trend in the industry [1] Company Summary - SANY International has received a substantial number of mining equipment orders, with an expected growth in order scale from approximately 5 billion RMB last year to three times that by 2028, supported by growth in after-sales service revenue [1] - The order delivery ratio for SANY's port equipment business has reached a historical high, with order visibility extended to 2027 [1]

Key Points Summary Industry Overview - The mining machinery industry is expected to enter a new cycle of prosperity due to supply shortages and rising prices of metal commodities, influenced by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][2] Company Recommendations XCMG Machinery - Leading in complete open-pit mining machinery, comparable to Caterpillar and Komatsu - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 13 billion (including spare parts), a year-on-year increase of 50% - Target for 2030 mining machinery revenue is 40 billion, with a CAGR of 25-30% [1] SANY International - Mining machinery accounts for 40% of total revenue - Overseas mining trucks are expected to contribute significantly to growth in 2026, with overseas mining machinery expected to exceed 50% of mining machinery business (6 billion) - Channel model adjustments are anticipated to enhance profitability; target for overseas mining machinery business in 2028 is 13 billion, aiming for over 100% growth in three years [1] Shantui - Leading in mining bulldozers, aiming to create a complete open-pit excavation solution - Expected sales of mining equipment to account for over 10% in 2025 [2] NPE Mining Machinery - Leading in wear-resistant parts for mineral processing, comparable to Meiyit Electric Steel - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 1 billion, with over 50% from overseas - Anticipated new product launches and overseas capacity expansion could lead to a new performance upturn, with a mid-term revenue target of 2 billion and profit target of 400 million by 2028 [2] New Sharp Co., Ltd. - Main business in hard alloys and rock drilling tools, comparable to Sandvik - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 1.8 billion, with 40% from overseas; recognized as a leading comprehensive solution provider for mining consumables [2] Nanmin Group - Main business in crushing and screening machinery, comparable to Metso/Sandvik - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 800 million, with 20% from overseas - Strategic changes include signing a ten-year operation contract for a large iron ore project and investing in a Zimbabwean gold mine, transitioning to an "equipment + operation" overseas model [2] Zhejiang Mining Co. - Main business in crushing and screening machinery, comparable to Metso/Sandvik - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 700 million, with 20% from overseas - Strategic changes include acquiring a lead-silver mine in Kazakhstan, initiating a dual-driven development phase of "mining machinery overseas + mining operation" [2]

Group 1 - Heavy machinery stocks in Hong Kong continue to rise, with SANY International increasing over 6% to reach a new high and recording an 8-day consecutive increase [1] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group rose by 2.2%, while First Tractor Company and Zoomlion both saw increases of nearly 2% [1] - The engineering machinery industry is expected to maintain stable orders until mid-January 2026, with clear expectations for a sales peak after the Spring Festival [1] Group 2 - According to China Merchants Securities, the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the strengthening of commodity prices may signal a turning point for global mining machinery demand, suggesting a long-term upward trend in the industry [1] - SANY International is receiving a significant number of mining equipment orders, with an expected growth from approximately 5 billion RMB last year to three times that by 2028, supported by growth in after-sales service revenue [1] - The order delivery ratio for SANY's port equipment business has reached a historical high, with order visibility extended to 2027 [1]

2026年01月27日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 744.70 | 742.00 | 746.30 | 534.80 | 535.40 | 538.00 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 685.90 | 682.55 | 681.50 | 497.95 | 499.60 | 501.00 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 65.75 | 65.70 | 69.80 | 35.80 | 34.70 | 34.75 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | 9.68% | 9.71% | 10.32% | 7.17% | 6.93% | 6.91% | | | 持仓量 ...

昨日（1月27日）有色金属板块逆市领涨全行业，中金黄金、兴业银锡、铜陵有色等11股涨停，有色 ETF华宝（159876）场内价格暴涨4.77%，全天成交额2.21亿元，量价齐创历史新高！ 伴随火热的行情，资金狂涌！有色ETF华宝（159876）昨天单日吸金1.74亿元，拉长时间来看，近10日 狂揽7.17亿元。截至1月26日，该ETF最新规模21.6亿元，刷新上市以来的高点！ 消息面上，昨日（1月26日）现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司的关键心理整数关口，全球金融市场得以 见证历史性记录的诞生。华西证券指出，受美联储降息预期、美元信用不稳、美国中期选举以及地缘政 治不确定性的影响，金价有望进一步上涨。 固然市场整体看涨黄金后市表现，东方金诚指出，短期需警惕投机资金获利了结风险，金价波动可能加 大*。华泰证券建议，中配有色金属板块*，即在自己的基金组合中占比10%-20%，既能够分享有色金 属上涨红利，还能够分散风险。 有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（017141）的标的指数，涵盖贵金属（避险）、战略金属（成 长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把握整个板块的贝塔行情。 昨日（ ...

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 美国股市连续第四个交易日上涨，通信服务和科技板块领涨，本周将公布重要的科技公司财报。 日元走强导致日本出口商和汽车制造商股价下跌，日经指数和东证指数均下跌约2%。 由于日元波动对企业盈利的影响存在不确定性，日元波动对股市整体而言是负面因素。欧洲股市小幅上 涨，材料和公用事业板块领涨，与大宗商品市场的强劲表现相呼应。 债券 美国国债上涨，两年期国债拍卖需求强劲，表明市场对美联储今年晚些时候降息的预期仍然是美国政府 债券潜在收益的动力。地缘政治新闻减少也帮助推低了收益率。 欧洲债券市场上涨，法国债券领涨，持续的预算谈判进展推动法国和德国主权债券利差降至18个月以来 的最低水平。 上周日本国债市场的动荡引发了关于货币（日元干预）、全球政府债券（市场普遍担忧以及当前日本国 债收益率下的需求）以及日元套利交易可行性的进一步讨论。 外汇和大宗商品 大宗商品普遍上涨，彭博商品指数在过去五个交易日上涨7%（全部为上涨日）。白银和黄金的涨幅被 天然气近80%的年初至今涨幅所超越，这归因于严寒天气影响了供暖需求。 尽管当日白银上涨了6%，但由于获利回吐，白银价格较盘中高点下跌了近8%。受市场猜测日 ...

当国际金价冲上 5100 美元/盎司、国内金饰克价飙到 1570 元时，很多人突然意识到：黄金不是在涨，是全球金融秩序在"换气"。 一、这波金价暴涨，背后是四股力量一起推。 美联储降息预期： 利率走低，美元吸引力下降，资金自然往黄金跑。 冲突越多，市场越慌，黄金越成"最后的安全屋"。 美元信用压力加剧： 美国 38 万亿美元债务像一块巨石，让全球开始担心美元的长期信用，于是纷纷用黄金替代美债。 二、黄金为什么能扛？ 最简单的比喻： 美元像门票，黄金像房子。 门票印多了会贬值，但房子不会凭空缩水。 三、现在买金，是上车还是接盘？ 观点A：认为长期逻辑没变，央行都在买。 观点B：觉得涨太快，情绪推动明显。 其实，无论持有哪个看法，其核心问题只有一个： 你是为了保值，还是为了增值。 全球央行"国家级囤金" ： 世界黄金协会数据显示，多国央行持续增持，中国已连买 14 个月，波兰更是直接采购 150 吨。这是用行动表达：黄金比美元更可靠。 地缘风险升级： 最后： 黄金值得配置，但不值得冲动。 别把避险工具，当成投机玩具。 高盛给出 6600 美元的预测并非天方夜谭，但短期内剧烈震荡会更加明显。 四、2026 年黄金市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has reached a historic moment with spot gold prices surpassing $5000 per ounce for the first time, driven by multiple factors including central bank gold purchases, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and a trend towards de-dollarization [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices have increased from $4000 to $5000 per ounce within 100 days, influenced by a combination of factors rather than a single event [2]. - Central banks' ongoing gold purchases are a significant fundamental factor supporting gold prices, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, marking 14 consecutive months of increases [2]. - The World Gold Council reported that as of November 2025, global official gold reserves exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at $3.93 trillion, surpassing U.S. Treasury securities for the first time in 30 years [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The A-share precious metals sector opened strongly on January 26, with several gold stocks reaching historical highs, reflecting the market's reassessment of gold mining companies' earnings and reserve values [3]. - The rise in gold prices has also impacted the consumer market, with gold jewelry prices reaching record highs, prompting increased consumer purchases as a form of asset allocation [3]. Group 3: Company Performance and Outlook - Several precious metal companies have announced profit forecasts for 2025, with Zijin Mining expecting a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [4]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold anticipates a net profit of 3 to 3.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 70% to 81%, while Hunan Gold expects a net profit of 1.27 to 1.608 billion yuan, up 50% to 90% [4]. - Despite the optimistic market sentiment, some institutions have begun to signal short-term risks, suggesting that if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026, it may trigger profit-taking [4].