近日，国际黄金价格连续上涨，并创历史新高。Wind数据显示，截至北京时间9月2日10:11，伦敦现货 黄金价格最高涨至3508.69美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录；COMEX黄金期货价格最高涨至3578.4美元/盎 司，迭创历史新高。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，近期，在多重利多因素推动下，贵金属价格突破关键阻力位。受美联 储降息预期升温及地缘局势不确定性影响，国际黄金期货、现货价格双双突破历史新高。 展望后市，顾冯达表示，短期黄金价格料维持偏强格局，基本面支撑主要来自三方面：一是美联储降息 预期持续升温，二是多地地缘局势风险推升避险情绪，三是技术突破后投机情绪高涨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is almost certain, coupled with the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning into a peak season and the low level of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, which may lead to a relatively strong upward trend in the price of Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Information Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,780, up 370 from the previous value; the trading volume was 78,481 lots, an increase of 7,420; the open interest was 180,644 lots, an increase of 6,818; the inventory was 20,200 tons, a decrease of 1,212 tons [2]. - **SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price**: On September 1, 2025, it was 79,900, up 510 from the previous value [2]. - **London Copper**: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,884, down 18; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 158,875 tons, a decrease of 158,875; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 86.27, down 6.01; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 172.11, down 13.12 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.585, up 0.08; the total inventory was 277,843 tons, an increase of 4,076 [2]. Industry Information - **Consumption and Production**: Although the copper foil operating rate is objectively high recently, due to low consumer demand, it has limited support for the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises. In August, as the steel rod operating rate declined, the substitution effect of refined copper rod consumption was more obvious in Jiangxi enterprises, but other regions did not feel a significant boost. In August, the domestic electrolytic copper production decreased only slightly by 0.28 tons, but affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and the expansion of some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from scrap copper has also decreased. SMM expects that the electrolytic copper production in September will drop significantly by 5.25 tons and remain at a low level in October [2]. - **Project Progress**: The floating ship pumping station and back - water system, a key supporting project of the Mirador copper mine expansion project under Tongling Nonferrous Metals, completed the overall commissioning, marking a solid step towards the full - scale completion and operation of the project. The Mirador copper mine is a landmark mining cooperation project between China and Ecuador under the Belt and Road Initiative [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Domestic Supply**: Due to policy influence, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from scrap copper will also reduce their expansion. In addition, September will enter the intensive maintenance period, so the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline significantly, and remain at a low level in October [2]. - **Import and Export**: The restriction of high - quality scrap copper exports in Europe, the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may lead to a decrease in the domestic scrap copper production (import) in September. The import window of electrolytic copper is opening, which may increase the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper. The continuous arrival of imported copper has increased the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper; the support level around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance level around 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on September 2, with the ChiNext index experiencing a notable rise [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3878.22, up by 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.05% to 12822.45 [2] - The Hong Kong market saw all three major indices decline, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.35% to 25528.40 [4] Sector Performance - Precious metals stocks led the gains, with significant increases in industrial mother machine stocks, while sectors like internet and diversified finance faced adjustments [2][10] - The industrial mother machine sector saw notable gains, with companies like Huadong CNC and Ningbo Jingda hitting the daily limit [10] - Precious metals stocks also surged, with West Mining hitting the daily limit and other companies like Hunan Silver and Shengda Resources following suit [13] Company Specifics - Dechong Environmental experienced extreme volatility, opening at a limit-up price of 17.55 CNY, then plummeting to a limit-down price of 14.36 CNY, showcasing a "heaven and earth board" phenomenon [6][8] - The company reported a market capitalization of 2.973 billion CNY, with a P/E ratio of 149.25 and a P/B ratio of 7.70 [7] - The stock's trading volume reached 138,300 hands, indicating significant market activity [7] Regulatory and Economic Context - The National Standardization Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a plan for the high-quality standard system for industrial mother machines, aiming for a comprehensive standard system by 2030 [11] - The current gold price has reached a historical high, exceeding 3500 USD per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12][15]

Market Overview - On September 2, the A-share market showed mixed performance with the ChiNext index experiencing a notable rise [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3878.22, up by 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.05% to 12822.45 [3] - The Hong Kong stock market saw all three major indices decline, with notable drops in stocks like Hua Hong Semiconductor and Kuaishou [5] Sector Performance - Precious metals concept stocks led the gains, with significant increases in industrial mother machine stocks, while sectors like internet and diversified finance faced adjustments [3][4] - The industrial mother machine sector saw stocks like Huadong CNC and Ningbo Jingda hit the daily limit up, with Hengjin Induction rising over 15% [10][14] - Precious metals stocks also surged, with West Mining hitting the daily limit up and other stocks like Hunan Silver and Shengda Resources following suit [16][17] Company Specifics - Dechuan Environmental experienced extreme volatility, opening at a limit up before plummeting to a limit down, showcasing a "天地板" phenomenon [7][8] - The stock opened at ¥17.55, reached a high of ¥17.55, and then fell to a low of ¥14.36, closing at ¥14.42, down 9.59% [8] - The company issued a notice regarding abnormal stock fluctuations, indicating high P/E and P/B ratios and warning of speculative risks [8] Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices reached a historic high, surpassing $3500 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 33% [15][18] - Analysts predict that the next target for gold could be between $3900 and $4000 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market for non-ferrous metals continues to rise, with significant gains in silver and gold stocks [1][2] - Silver and gold prices are strengthening, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,500 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of over 33% [2][3] - Analysts indicate that macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are favoring precious metals, including India's sale of U.S. government bonds and increased gold reserves, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions [3] Group 2 - Specific stock performances include: - Baiyin Nonferrous (601212) up 10.08% with a market cap of 31.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 53.24% - Western Gold (601069) up 10.00% with a market cap of 22 billion and a year-to-date increase of 111.04% - Zhuhai Group (600961) up 8.82% with a market cap of 16.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 97.46% - Hunan Silver (002716) up 7.59% with a market cap of 18.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 92.33% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold reached a historic high of $3504.5 per ounce, driven by concerns over the independence and stability of the Federal Reserve, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Factors - The recent court case regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is seen as a historic test of the Fed's independence, with potential political pressures undermining policy stability, which could negatively impact the attractiveness of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, indirectly benefiting gold [2]. - Market analysts note that the rise in gold prices reflects concerns over institutional stability, with factors such as rising inflation, weak consumer sentiment, and expectations of interest rate cuts supporting the demand for gold [2]. - Recent U.S. economic data, including a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July, aligns with expectations and keeps inflation above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's call for immediate interest rate cuts to mitigate labor market risks has reinforced market expectations for a rate cut in September, with over 80% probability according to CME FedWatch tools [3]. - Analysts are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. employment report, with expectations of an increase of approximately 78,000 non-farm jobs in August, which could further bolster demand for gold if the data falls short of expectations [4]. - The interplay between political and economic risks, particularly regarding the ongoing tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve, suggests that market volatility may increase, with gold continuing to attract safe-haven investments but potentially experiencing more dramatic price movements [4].

现货黄金价格突破3500美元/盎司，创下历史新高。年初至今，金价累计涨幅超33%。 光大期货研究所有色金属研究总监展大鹏认为，近期伦敦现货金银再次发力走高主要由多重因素共振驱 动，核心逻辑仍围绕避险需求与美联储货币政策预期展开。 对于本轮贵金属涨势，国信期货认为，短期仍有望维持偏强格局。美联储降息预期持续发酵叠加地缘风险 升温，共同提振贵金属避险属性。技术面上，COMEX黄金强势突破3500美元/盎司关键阻力，下一目标 或看向3550美元 /盎司 附近，下方支撑参考3450美元 /盎司 左右；COMEX白银在创历史新高后上行空 间进一步打开，下一关键阻力看向42美元附近水平，需警惕短期技术性回调风险。投资者需重点关注即 将公布的8月非农就业数据及中旬美联储议息会议政策信号，预计数据表现及联储态度将对贵金属方向选 择产生重要指引。 综合自：e公司 责编：叶舒筠 校对： 彭其华 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度 ...

美国股市周一因劳动节休市，市场焦点转向美联储理事人选与利率政策动向。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示， 数名美联储主席候选人同时也被考虑填补央行理事会的两个空缺席位。他指出，自己已与川普总统详细讨论过候 选人的条件与资格，并强调川普对美联储「怀有极大敬意」。至于市场对川普试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克的反 应，贝森特认为债市与汇市皆维持平静。 根据CME「美联储观察」工具，9月会议中降息25个基点的机率达89.6%，维持利率不变的机率为10.4%。展望10 月，市场对降息25与50个基点的预期几乎平分秋色，分别为47.3%与47.9%。 库克理事的留任概率从罢免传闻时的35%回升至62% 白宫特别强调不寻求颠覆现行货币政策框架 劳动节休市背后的政策暗流 9月2日美国劳动节休市期间，CME美联储观察工具显示89.6%的降息预期创年内新高。这种市场共识的形成源于 三重压力： 经济数据疲软：8月ISM制造业PMI连续三个月萎缩，核心PCE物价指数增速放缓至2.8% 全球央行转向：欧央行6月启动降息后，新兴市场货币宽松政策持续加码 政治干预隐忧：特朗普政府被曝考虑替换3名美联储理事，引发政策独立性争议 贝森特声明中的权力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows signs of stability and gradual improvement in performance, with a focus on structural opportunities amid a backdrop of changing monetary policy expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major stock indices experienced narrow fluctuations, with the CSI A500 index slightly rising [1] - As of 9:45 AM, the A500 ETF from Southern Asset Management increased by 0.42%, with notable gains in stocks such as Midea Group (up 2.63%), Kweichow Moutai (up 1.49%), and China Merchants Bank (up 1.00%) [1] Group 2: Financial Results - By August 31, 5,432 listed companies had disclosed their semi-annual reports for 2025, revealing total operating revenue of 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16% [1] - The net profit for the first half of 2025 reached 3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.54%, with an acceleration of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year's full-year growth [1] - Nearly 60% of companies reported positive revenue growth, and over 75% achieved profitability, with 2,475 companies showing positive net profit growth and 1,943 companies experiencing both revenue and net profit growth [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The overall industrial structure of listed companies in China continues to optimize, with a solid foundation for internal growth and a clearer focus on technological development [1] - Analysts anticipate that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to an improvement in risk appetite, suggesting a shift towards a fundamentally driven market in the medium term [1] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a rotational state of hotspots, with recommendations to focus on structural allocation opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The spot gold price has surpassed $3500 per ounce, reaching a new historical high of $3501.030, with a daily increase of 0.74% [1] - The London gold price also showed significant movement, with a peak of $3501.880 during the trading session [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with Zhou Shengsheng priced at ¥1041 per gram, up by ¥16, and Lao Miao gold at ¥1034, up by ¥11 [3] Group 2 - On September 1, the international gold price rose significantly, with December futures reaching a peak of $3550 per ounce, marking a historical high [4] - The weakening US dollar, which hit a five-week low, has contributed to the rise in international gold prices, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5] - The US job market's weakening is a factor in the rising expectations for a Fed rate cut, with the upcoming non-farm payroll data being a key indicator for economic health [7]