June 13, 2025 05:00 AM GMT US Economics Weekly | North America Weakness still lies ahead This week's inflation data showed no clear signs of a tariff push, but we expect higher goods inflation in coming months. Slower core services may give the Fed confidence that the inflation pickup will be transitory. With higher inflation ahead, weaker consumption growth is still in front of us. | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Idea | | June 13, 2025 05:00 AM GMT | | | | US Economics Weekly North America | Morgan Sta ...

All right, the Fed's two-day policy meeting kicks off today. Senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us right now. He's got the CNBC latest Fed survey. Steve, what's it show? Well, Becky, despite and good morning. Despite improvement in the economic outlook, respondents to the Fed survey continue to forecast weaker growth and higher inflation than they did at the beginning of the year and still elevated tariff uncertainty. 100% say the Fed will keep rates unchanged at this meeting. Uh the recession pro ...

Let's just scenario play. Yes, please. What happens if Powell rips in a 100 basis point cut.Right now, I'll tell you. So, one part which is mathematical is the interest on the debt goes down. We save 300 billion.But there's something else that happens which is the Fed does control the front end of the curve. Meaning, how do people borrow money for small amounts of time from one day to about two years. If you make that cheaper, it's a test that's true as time.What happens is people borrow more money. that fu ...

The Fed's latest round of projections released Wednesday will include the muchstudied dot plot. It's a chart updated quarterly that shows each Fed officials prediction about the direction of the central bank's benchmark interest rate. Our next guest, however, is in the camp of no cuts from the Fed for the remainder of the year.We got Kenny Pulcari here, a Slatestone Wealth chief market strategist and host of the Yahoo Finance podcast, Trader Talk. So, each one of those little dots represents a member of the ...

One way or another, you have to bring debt the deficit not only in the United States but other places but I'm focusing on the United States down to from a supply demand point of view down to about 3%. So that's the 3% of GDP that that's an amount that the market I think can digest. Um it will um affect also the supply demand.There are when I say three parts I think when we think of budgets we think of taxes and spending um but also interest has a huge effect. um a 1% change in the interest rate, 100 basis p ...

And joining us now ahead of u the first day of a shortened uh trading week, Stephanie Link, High Tower, chief investment strategist and a CNBC contributor. Um we've been hit with you've been hit with just about everything. Uh so now we got the latest. Now we've got a major conflict in the Middle East.Uh Steph, anything change. Again, you you do what you're you keep on keeping on, right. Just just do what you do.Well, I'm trying. It's not easy on c certain weeks, but uh I think we're kind of chipping away at ...

Economic Overview - In May, industrial added value grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slowing down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The service production index increased by 6.2% year-on-year in May, a slight acceleration of 0.2 percentage points from April[1] - The weighted year-on-year growth of industrial and service sectors combined was 6.1%, slightly up from 6.0% in April[1] Retail Performance - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the fastest growth since early last year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - National subsidies contributed an additional 0.5 percentage points to retail growth in May, with total subsidies amounting to 162 billion yuan[2] - The contribution of home appliances and audio-visual equipment to retail sales increased significantly, with growth rates of 53% and 33% respectively in May[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to May grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with a 7.7% increase when excluding real estate investments, both slowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Equipment investment rose by 17.3% year-on-year, contributing 63.6% to total investment growth, down from 64.5% in the previous month[4] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area and sales value in May decreased by 3.3% and 6.0% year-on-year, respectively, with sales area growth slowing by 1.2 percentage points from April[5] - Prices for new and second-hand homes in first-tier cities fell, with a 0.7% decline in first-tier cities leading the drop[5] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The weighted year-on-year growth of retail, investment, and export delivery values increased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.1%, still about 2 percentage points lower than the production growth rate of 6.1%[6] - The industrial sales rate fell by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 95.9%, indicating ongoing demand insufficiency[6] Future Outlook - The second quarter GDP is expected to exceed 5% year-on-year, supported by retail and service sector growth, despite weak investment and export performance[7] - Incremental policy measures may be delayed until after August, with potential new agreements between China and the U.S. impacting trade dynamics[8]

宏观经济与市场趋势 - 美国第一季度 GDP 中，进口增长高达 41%，可能预示着需求被提前透支[2] - 美国 GDP 占全球 GDP 的 25%，其经济活动对全球市场有重要影响[2] - 消费者提前购买高价商品以应对潜在关税，可能导致感恩节至圣诞节期间的销售额令人失望[4] 公司表现与策略 - 多数消费电子公司 11 月和 12 月的收入通常占总收入的 30% 到 35%，但由于需求前移，预计将面临挑战[5] - 微软在 2019 年投资了 OpenAI，早于市场对 ChatGPT 的认知[12] - 微软 Azure 云业务的收入在连续三个季度令人失望后，三月份的收入加速增长了 2%[13] - 微软拥有 Stargate 计划，可以选择不处理所有 OpenAI 的流量，并将其转交给其他公司[14] 重点公司分析 - 预计英伟达将受益于推理需求的增长，谷歌第一季度处理的 tokens 数量同比增长了 5 倍[9] - 英伟达的市盈率为 35 倍，并且进行了大规模的资产减记，这被认为是利好因素[11] - Micron 宣布投资 1500 亿美元，预计创造 9 万个就业岗位，但未明确时间表[7]

2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率跌 4.15 个基点报 3.993% 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 1 【经济数据】 究 报 告 美国会预算办公室：美国可能会在 8 月中旬用尽避免债务触 及上限的措施 美联储调查：5 月消费者通胀预期全面下降，为 2024 年来 首次 日本修正后 GDP 萎缩收窄至 0.2% 中国对沙特等 4 国试行免签政策 中国 5 月 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.3% 海关总署：前 5 个月货物贸易进出口同比增长 2.5% 5 月全国乘用车市场零售 196 万辆，同比增 13.9% 英国金融监管机构与英伟达达成合作，为银行 AI 实验提供 安全沙盒 亚马逊拟在宾夕法尼亚州投资 200 亿美元用于 AI 和云计算 星巴克中国将发力非咖啡饮品市场 5 年期美债收益率跌 4.39 个基点报 4.079% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.18 个基点报 4.474% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25, ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong will maintain the peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, while enhancing its position as a global offshore RMB business center, with plans to introduce more RMB products for overseas investors [1] - The US Senate plans to propose significant revisions to Trump's $3 trillion economic plan, aiming for enactment before July 4, despite criticisms from figures like Elon Musk [1] - The New York Fed's survey indicates a decline in US consumer inflation expectations for May, with the one-year expectation dropping from 3.6% to 3.2%, marking the first decline since 2024 [2] Group 2 - Japan's Cabinet Office revised the first quarter GDP contraction to a 0.2% annual rate, better than the initial estimate of 0.7%, which may support the Bank of Japan's cautious stance [2] - The Japanese government is considering repurchasing previously issued ultra-long bonds at low interest rates, in response to rising yields [3] - Japanese investors sold a record ¥1.48 trillion in German sovereign bonds in April, the largest monthly reduction since 2014, and also sold ¥1.07 trillion in US sovereign bonds, the largest reduction since October of the previous year [3] Group 3 - US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones remaining flat at 42,761.76 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.09% to 6,005.88 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.31% to 19,591.24 points [4] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 4.15 basis points to 3.993%, and the 10-year yield down 3.18 basis points to 4.474% [4] Group 4 - International oil prices strengthened, with US crude oil main contract rising by 1.24% to $65.38 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract increasing by 0.96% to $67.11 per barrel [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.19% to 99.01, while non-US currencies generally appreciated against the dollar [5]