Core Viewpoint - The A-share technology sector is experiencing significant volatility, characterized by "high-low switching" and "rapid rotation," raising questions about its ability to break out of this pattern and continue structural opportunities [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The technology sector's recent performance has been marked by fluctuations, with a focus on the automotive industry's semiconductor and domestic computing sectors as key areas for future growth [1][4] - The current market environment has led to a net value increase of over 48% for the automotive industry upgrade fund managed by Wang Zheyu as of September 16 [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Wang Zheyu emphasizes a "core + satellite" investment strategy, focusing on sectors with clear industrial logic and strong growth certainty while exploring potential opportunities in niche markets [2] - The adjustment in investment focus from solely electric vehicles to include semiconductor autonomy and computing upgrades reflects a deep understanding of industry phases [3] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The semiconductor and domestic computing sectors are seen as entering a critical phase of potential explosive growth, moving beyond mere speculation to a more mature industrial logic [3][4] - The evolution of the domestic semiconductor industry is compared to the breakthrough logic of the new energy vehicle sector around 2015, indicating a shift towards advanced processes and high-end applications [4] Group 4: Policy Support - There is a clear policy direction supporting self-sufficiency in technology, with resources being allocated to the semiconductor and computing sectors, enhancing growth certainty as policies are implemented [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - The current market dynamics show a rotation among stocks, which may lay the groundwork for further upward movement in the technology sector [4] - Industry trends suggest that as the sector matures, there will be increased sensitivity to valuation, necessitating caution as the market approaches a supply-demand equilibrium [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Cambrian (688256.SH) has attracted significant investor interest, with its stock price briefly surpassing Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) before closing lower, highlighting the contrast between market enthusiasm and management's cautious communication regarding product development timelines [2][4][9]. Financial Performance - Cambrian reported a remarkable revenue of 2.881 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 4347.82%, and a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, a turnaround from a loss of 530 million yuan in the same period last year [4][5]. - The company achieved its first quarterly profit in Q4 2024, with net profits of 355 million yuan and 683 million yuan in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, respectively [5][6]. Market Environment - The AI chip market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with IDC projecting the market size to reach approximately 19 billion USD in 2024 and 55.2 billion USD by 2028 [6]. - Cambrian's contract liabilities surged from 142,000 yuan at the end of Q1 2025 to 543 million yuan by the end of Q2 2025, indicating strong pre-sales and customer demand for future products [7]. Competitive Landscape - Cambrian faces stiff competition in the AI chip sector, with its market share at only 1% compared to Huawei's 23% in 2024 [11]. - The company has not released a new generation of cloud training chips since the release of the Siyuan 370 series in 2022, raising concerns about its product development pace compared to competitors like Huawei, which has outlined a clear roadmap for its AI chips [10][11]. Strategic Challenges - Cambrian's revenue is heavily reliant on a single customer, with the largest client contributing 96.48% of total revenue in Q1 2025, raising concerns about its business model sustainability [21]. - The company has paused its edge computing chip development and stopped taking on new smart computing cluster projects due to increased procurement costs and cash flow constraints [20][21]. Management Communication - During the recent earnings call, Cambrian's management was reticent about providing specific timelines for new product releases, reiterating existing public disclosures instead [24][27]. - The management emphasized the importance of technological innovation and market expansion to maintain profitability but did not elaborate on concrete strategies or timelines [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - Huawei's recent announcements at the 2025 Full Connect Conference highlight the launch of the Ascend AI chip roadmap, indicating a strategic push to compete with NVIDIA in the high-end AI market [3][4] - The Ascend chip series will see annual upgrades, with significant performance enhancements in computing power, interconnect bandwidth, and memory capacity, positioning domestic AI computing chips among the world's best [4] - The emergence of supernodes as a new standard for AI infrastructure emphasizes the importance of internal interconnect capabilities, with Huawei's Atlas 950 SuperPoD expected to outperform NVIDIA's upcoming products in multiple performance metrics [5][7] Summary by Sections Chip Development - The Ascend 950 series will achieve a single-chip computing power of 1 PFLOPS (FP8) and 2 PFLOPS (FP4), with subsequent models doubling this performance [4] - The interconnect bandwidth of the 950 series will increase by 2.5 times compared to the current Ascend 910C, reaching 2 TB/s [4] Supernode Infrastructure - Supernodes are becoming the dominant product form in AI infrastructure, with Huawei's Atlas 950 SuperPoD supporting up to 15,488 Ascend cards [5] - The Atlas 950 Supernode's interconnect bandwidth is projected to reach 16.3 PB/s, significantly surpassing competitors [5][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in chip production, supernode technology, and related infrastructure, including companies like SMIC, Tongfu Microelectronics, and others [7]

昇腾系列路径清晰，明年开始陆续推出多款芯片。从全新的昇腾芯片、超节点、鲲鹏CPU，到全新互联 总线架构灵衢，华为全面对标英伟达。昇腾芯片规划已经到2028年，未来三年，昇腾将有三个系列陆续 推出，更多的芯片还在规划中。 超节点能力强悍，集群规模全球领先。华为同时发布了全球最强超节点集群，分别是Atlas 950 SuperCluster和 Atlas 960 SuperCluster，算力规模分别超过50万卡和达到百万卡。目前CloudMatrix 384超 节点累计部署300多套，服务20多家客户。其中，Atlas 950 SuperPoD，算力规模8192卡，预计于今年四 季度上市。新一代产品Atlas 960 SuperPoD ，算力规模15488卡，预计2027年四季度上市。 近期，相关消息持续催化国产半导体的发展。 国产替代中，上游半导体设备是核心，当前半导体设备ETF（159516）盘中由涨转跌，回调或为布局机 会。资金逢低抢筹，盘中实时流入超2亿份，当前规模超36亿元，位居细分品类首位，流动性占优。 华为昇腾大超预期，国产算力再树里程碑 9月18日，华为全连接大会2025召开，华为发布多颗昇腾系 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.15% to close at 3831.66 points, with a high of 3899.96 points during the day [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.06% to 13075.66 points, reaching a peak of 13328.1 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 1.64% to 3095.85 points, with a maximum of 3168.68 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was -1.0% [2] - The highest performing scale index ETF was the China Merchants CSI A50 ETF with a return of 10.04% [2] - The highest performing industry index ETF was the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board New Generation Information Technology ETF with a return of 2.04% [2] - The highest performing strategy index ETF was the Huaxia CSI Dividend Quality ETF with a return of -0.54% [2] - The highest performing style index ETF was the Southern CSI Sci-Tech Innovation Board Growth ETF with a return of 2.22% [2] - The highest performing thematic index ETF was the GF CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Thematic ETF with a return of 5.55% [2] ETF Performance Rankings - The top three ETFs by return were: - China Merchants CSI A50 ETF (10.04%) - GF CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Thematic ETF (5.55%) - Huaxia CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Thematic ETF (4.56%) [4] - The top three ETFs by decline were: - Wan Jia CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Thematic ETF (-4.14%) - Huaxia CSI Financial Technology Thematic ETF (-3.89%) - Huitianfu CSI Subdivided Nonferrous Metals Industry Thematic ETF (-3.89%) [4] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by fund inflow were: - GF CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF (26.4 billion) - Huabao CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF (1.262 billion) - Jiashi Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip ETF (723 million) [6] - The top three ETFs by fund outflow were: - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (828 million) - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (749 million) - Huaxia CSI Robot ETF (658 million) [6] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs by margin buying were: - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Component ETF (1.206 billion) - GF CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF (997 million) - Yi Fangda ChiNext ETF (885 million) [8] - The top three ETFs by margin selling were: - Southern CSI 500 ETF (53.32 million) - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF (26.29 million) - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (26.07 million) [8] Institutional Insights - First Shanghai Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in domestic computing power for the second half of the year and next year, citing a sustained tight balance in domestic computing power [9] - Guosen Securities highlights the renewed focus on semiconductor self-sufficiency, particularly in analog chips, memory chips, and computing ASICs, with significant growth potential [10]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index has shown a 0.99% increase, with notable gains from companies like SourceJet Technology and Yirui Technology [3] - Huawei has disclosed its Ascend AI chip iteration plan, with new models expected to launch in 2026 and 2027, indicating a potential boost for domestic computing chip market share [3][4] - Foreign institutions are increasingly researching Chinese chip companies, with significant interest in firms like Weijie Chuangxin and Naxin Micro [4] Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 100 Index ETF has seen a 3.49% increase over the past week, with a current price of 1.37 yuan [3] - The ETF's trading volume reached 24.93 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 440 million yuan over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [3][4] - The ETF's scale has grown by 385 million yuan in the past week, with a significant increase in shares by 16.2 million [4] Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on investment opportunities within the Huawei Ascend chain, as the trend towards self-sufficiency in computing power accelerates [4] - Major tech companies like Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent are redefining the valuation benchmarks for Chinese tech assets, providing new directions for global capital allocation [4]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the significant advancements in domestic chip capabilities, particularly through Huawei's release of the Ascend chip roadmap, which aims to double computing power annually to meet the growing demands of AI [4][5] - The report indicates that the self-sufficiency rate of domestic computing chips in China is expected to reach 82% by 2027, driven by policy guidance and performance improvements [7] - The report suggests focusing on the computing power supply chain, including various companies across different segments such as Huawei, Alibaba, and Baidu, which are leading the charge in domestic chip development [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index for the computer industry is 5648.76, with a 52-week high of 5841.52 and a low of 2855.49 [1] Recent Developments - Huawei plans to launch several new Ascend chip products between 2026 and 2028, enhancing AI computing capabilities [4][5] - Alibaba's AI computing card has been showcased as outperforming NVIDIA's A800 in several hardware parameters [6] - Baidu's Kunlun chip has secured significant orders, indicating strong market demand for domestic AI computing solutions [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring various supply chains related to computing power, including companies like Huawei, Alibaba, and others across different technology segments [9]

Group 1 - Huawei announced the development roadmap for its Ascend series, planning to launch multiple chips including Ascend 950PR, 950DT, 960, and 970 between Q1 2026 and Q4 2028 [1] - The company is developing large-scale supernodes such as Atlas 950 SuperCluster and Atlas 960 SuperCluster, expected to support 8192 and 15488 cards, respectively, with launches planned for Q4 2027 and Q4 2028 [1] - Huawei introduced the world's first computing supernode with a maximum of 16 nodes and 48TB memory, expected to be launched in Q1 2026 [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities emphasized that advanced process capacity is fundamental for domestic computing power, with the iteration and expansion of advanced processes being crucial for the continuous product iteration and volume of Ascend [2] - The acceleration of domestic computing power shipments, represented by Ascend, is expected to drive increased demand for advanced processes, leading to a potential rise in domestic computing power market share [2] - The company is expected to lead the domestic AI chip development with annual iterations of Ascend, focusing on the differentiation and cost-effectiveness of domestic computing power as a breakthrough path [2]

中信证券表示，2025年9月18日，华为全联接大会召开，公司首次明确披露昇腾系列AI芯片规划，预计 2026年Q1推出昇腾950PR，Q4推出昇腾950DT，2027、2028年Q4分别推出昇腾960、970；超节点方 面，华为开创的灵衢新型互联协议，支撑万卡超节点架构，灵衢2.0技术规范现已开放，公司正开发 Atlas 960 SuperCluster等大规模超节点新品。当前以昇腾为代表的国产算力加速迭代，中信证券认为自 主可控趋势已成，建议重视华为昇腾链投资机遇，推荐昇腾链硬件龙头。 华泰证券：降息落地后金价短期或承压 长期配置价值不变 华泰证券表示，美联储9月FOMC会议如期降息25个基点，点阵图显示年内还将降息50个基点，符合市 场预期。短期由于降息利好已被充分定价，黄金可能面临"卖事实"的回调压力。本次降息属于预防式降 息，参考2024年9月降息后的情况，金价可能在降息之后一定时间形成"阶段性"顶部。华泰证券认为中 长期黄金配置价值不变，一方面，联储在经济上调、通胀粘性的背景下仍延续降息路径，叠加市场对 2026年鲍威尔任期结束后联储可能更宽松的预期，长期美经济滞胀的隐忧仍在。另一方面，在全球格局 ...

Market Updates - The Shanghai Stock Exchange reported that Tianpu Co., Ltd. has experienced multiple abnormal fluctuations, prompting the company to issue risk warning announcements and urging investors to exercise caution [2][5] - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel, aiming to co-develop multiple generations of customized data center and PC products [2][5] Policy and Regulation - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission released a draft for public consultation on the "Implementation Rules for Promoting the Accelerated Development of High-Growth Enterprises," which includes support measures for high-growth companies [3][6] Industry Insights - The National Health Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued guidelines for a childcare subsidy system, ensuring timely and adequate distribution of subsidies [5] - The National Bureau of Statistics held a press conference to discuss the construction of comprehensive data element pilot zones, emphasizing support for local initiatives and collaboration [5] - The China Charging Alliance reported that from January to August, the increase in charging infrastructure reached 4.53 million units, a year-on-year increase of 88.5% [6] Financial Market Trends - The second batch of 14 Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs was launched, with a total issuance scale exceeding 40 billion yuan, while the first batch of 10 ETFs saw a significant increase in scale [7] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, interpreted as a "preventive" rate cut [9][10] Corporate Developments - Huawei announced its future plans for Ascend chips, with new models expected to be released between 2026 and 2028, indicating a shift towards a more integrated and open-source strategy [12] - Samsung has informed major clients of a price increase for DRAM products by 15% to 30%, driven by strong demand from North American internet giants and the expanding AI application market [13] - Neusoft Group received a notification from a major domestic automotive manufacturer, expecting a total supply amount of approximately 5.6 billion yuan for smart cockpit domain controllers [15] - Fulin Precision signed a prepayment agreement with CATL for 1.5 billion yuan to secure lithium iron phosphate supply [16] - Changan Automobile has fulfilled its commitment to a 60-day payment term and is exploring new technologies and products, including humanoid robots and flying cars [17][18] - Zhijiang Biology's monkeypox virus nucleic acid test kit has been included in the WHO emergency use list, indicating international recognition of the product [19]