信期货有限公司 TIC Futures Company Limited 研究员:程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 政府债发行追踪―2025年第27周 截至7/6, 新增专项债发行进度为49.2% 1.5 - 0.5 0 -0.5 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 本周地方债净融资规模为217亿，环比减少5387亿 截至7/6, 新增地方债发行进度为50.3% 近2年均值 2025 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 li i 0 -500 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 近2年均值 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 2025 1.5 - 4500 4000 3000 0.5 2000 .0 1000 -0.5 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29 ...

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 广发证券资深金工分析师 张超 SAC: S0260514070002 zhangchao@gf.com.cn anningning@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 国内CTA产品二季度发行数量持续上升 ： 根据Wind统计数据，2025年二季度新发行CTA产品100只。二季度公布数据的CTA产品中（剔除6个月没有净值的产品），年化收益率中位数为16.37%， Sharpe Ratio中位数为1.60，近一年最大回撤率中位数为-4.28%，二季度CTA产品总体盈利比例69.4%。 股指波动率下降： 股指期货二季度波动率出现趋势性下降，当前波动率已处于历史最低水平附近。短期来看中美贸易关系改善，全球地缘冲突缓和，各类风险资产价格稳中 有升，A股在估值压力面前预计向上空间相对有限，因此三季度我们判断股指期货价格仍偏震荡，趋势性交易机会不多，股指CTA策略承压。 国债CTA策略预期偏弱： 中长期国债到期收益率水平目前已处于历史极低水平，向下空间不大；但经济偏弱、需求不足又压制了利率的抬升空间，因此我们判断国债期货合约价格 三季 ...

日本30年期国债收益率上升10个基点，至2.965%。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government debt is projected to exceed $50 trillion within seven years due to the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" act and ongoing expansionary fiscal policies [1][3] - The current national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, marking a historical high, with the "Big and Beautiful" act expected to increase the fiscal deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade [3] - The act includes significant tax cuts, such as reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% permanently and raising the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, which will result in over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next ten years [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury may run out of "extraordinary measures" to address the debt ceiling issue by mid-August, with a projected $1 trillion increase in Treasury bond supply expected in the second half of 2025 [4] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the act will significantly worsen the fiscal deficit, potentially raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to around 120%, far exceeding international warning levels [4] - The act's tax cuts primarily benefit high-income households, particularly those earning between $200,000 and $500,000, while drastically cutting healthcare coverage for low-income individuals, with an estimated 17 million Americans losing insurance [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年7月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：银行间主要利率债收益率整体延续稳中稍降，超长期国债及10年国开债仍然略弱。国债期货多数上扬，30年期主力合约涨0.11%。资金面充盈 宽松，资金价格进一步下滑。存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微幅下行，目前位于1.31%位置，七天质押式回购利率下行超4个bp至1.42%位置。资金价格 继续向下，对政策维持宽松信心较为稳定；流动性充裕短期继续支撑债市表现。 5、盘面：TS主力在20日线上方运行， 20日线向上，偏多；TF主力在20日线上方运行， 20日线向上，偏多； T主力与在20日线上方运行， 20日线向上， 偏多。 9、主力持仓：TS主力净多，多增。TF主力净多，多增。T主力净多，多减 ...

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a recent increase of 0.05%, with a cumulative rise of 1.44% over the past month as of July 4, 2025 [2] - Trading activity for the 30-year government bond ETF has been robust, with a turnover rate of 8.13% and a transaction volume of 619 million yuan [2] - The fund has experienced significant net inflows, totaling approximately 31.9 million yuan over the last five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [2][3] Trading Activity - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF has seen a notable increase since May 8, 2025, despite a slight recent decline [2] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 2.391 billion yuan, reflecting high liquidity [2] - The ETF's latest scale reached 7.607 billion yuan, showcasing its growing market presence [2] Fund Performance - The 30-year government bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 14.13% over the past year, ranking 5th out of 410 index bond funds [3] - Historical performance indicates a maximum monthly return of 5.35% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 4 months, with an average monthly return of 2.09% [3] - The fund has a 100% probability of profitability over a one-year holding period, with a maximum drawdown of 6.89% since inception [3] Financial Metrics - The management fee for the 30-year government bond ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [3] - The tracking error over the past month is reported at 0.041%, indicating strong tracking precision [3] Index Tracking - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which is composed of bonds meeting specific deliverable conditions for the 30-year government bond futures [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant net inflow of over 630 million yuan into the 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) on the previous trading day, indicating strong investor interest in government bonds [1] - On July 4, 2025, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of over 450 billion yuan in a single day, while maintaining a loose monetary environment, as evidenced by the overnight funding rate dropping to 1.31% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has shown a recent trend of first declining and then rising, primarily driven by a decrease in expected real interest rates, while an increase in actual risk premiums has provided significant offsetting effects [1] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury ETF tracks an index that reflects the overall performance of Chinese government bonds with a remaining maturity of approximately 10 years, consisting solely of fixed-rate government bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance [1] - The long-term U.S. Treasury rate is influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums, with current supply-demand imbalances expected to further elevate actual risk premiums [1] - The volatility in the U.S. Treasury market is increasing due to policy uncertainties, leading market participants to potentially reduce their positions [1]

7月7日消息，日本30年期国债收益率上涨5.5个基点至2.92%。 ...

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds increased by 5.5 basis points to 2.92% [1] - The yield on 20-year bonds rose by 3.5 basis points to 2.405% [1]

日本30年期国债收益率上涨5.5个基点至2.92%。 ...