Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the 2026 "Two New" policy for automobiles is expected to significantly boost the automotive consumption market in China, providing a strong stimulus for consumer spending during the upcoming holiday season [2][8]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The 2026 policy introduces a major adjustment in the old-for-new vehicle subsidy standard, shifting from a fixed subsidy to a percentage-based calculation based on the price of the new vehicle [2][3]. - The government has allocated 62.5 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to ensure the timely implementation of the policy during peak consumption periods [2][8]. Group 2: Subsidy Details - The new subsidy structure encourages higher-end consumption, with personal consumers receiving a 12% subsidy (capped at 20,000 yuan) for purchasing new energy vehicles after scrapping their old cars, and a 10% subsidy (capped at 15,000 yuan) for fuel vehicles [3][4]. - In the vehicle replacement scenario, the subsidy for new energy vehicles is set at 8% (capped at 15,000 yuan), while for fuel vehicles, it is 6% (capped at 13,000 yuan) [3][4]. Group 3: Market Impact - The policy aims to address structural issues in the automotive market, promoting a shift from volume expansion to quality improvement, particularly benefiting brands with high-value, technology-rich models [5][6]. - The 2025 old-for-new policy had already shown significant results in boosting automotive consumption and facilitating the upgrade of the automotive industry, with over 60% of the market now driven by replacement demand [7][8]. Group 4: Implementation and Monitoring - The new policy emphasizes optimizing fund allocation and implementing strict measures against illegal practices, such as price gouging and fraudulent claims for subsidies [5][6]. - A pre-allocation system for subsidy funds has been established to alleviate financial pressure on enterprises, ensuring smooth policy execution [7].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 automobile trade-in policy has been clarified by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, with changes in the form and method of subsidies compared to 2025, while the maximum amount of "national subsidies" remains unchanged [1] Subsidy Amounts - A one-time subsidy is available for those who scrap their old vehicles and purchase eligible new energy passenger cars or fuel passenger cars with an engine displacement of 2.0 liters or less. The subsidy for new energy vehicles is 12% of the vehicle price, capped at 20,000 yuan, while for fuel vehicles, it is 10% of the vehicle price, capped at 15,000 yuan [3] - If the old vehicle is sold instead of scrapped, the subsidy for new energy vehicles is 8% of the vehicle price, capped at 15,000 yuan, and for fuel vehicles, it is 6% of the vehicle price, capped at 13,000 yuan [3] Subsidy Conditions - For scrapping, the gasoline passenger vehicle must be registered before June 30, 2013, while diesel and other fuel vehicles must be registered before June 30, 2015. New energy vehicles must be registered before December 31, 2019. For vehicle transfer, there are no specific registration date requirements, but the old vehicle must be registered in the applicant's name before January 8, 2025 [4] Overall Impact - The 2026 trade-in policy is more detailed, and the subsidy method based on vehicle price is expected to promote the sales of higher-end models. It is estimated that over 12 million passenger vehicles will benefit from the subsidies in 2026, driving new car consumption by nearly 1.5 million units [6] - The new subsidy policy is seen as a way to utilize the same amount of funding to support more vehicles, facilitating a smooth transition of policies and promoting consumption upgrades. The market is expected to show a "low first, high later" trend in 2026, with a strong start in January [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on significant events and transformations over the past 25 years, emphasizing that the world is shaped by unique actions taken by individuals and society, rather than being predetermined [5][13]. Group 1: Historical Context - The turn of the millennium in 1999 was marked by global optimism, with people celebrating the arrival of the new century amidst rapid economic growth and technological advancements [11]. - In 2001, significant figures like Xu Zhiyuan joined the newly founded Economic Observer, reflecting a period of change and the willingness of society to engage with challenging issues [12]. - The early 2000s saw a shift in the perception of migrant workers, with the "Sun Zhigang incident" in 2003 marking a turning point in the acceptance of urban labor [12]. Group 2: Economic Developments - The 2008 financial crisis, triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, had profound effects on China, leading to a massive stimulus policy and rapid urbanization that transformed the real estate market [16]. - The Beijing Olympics in 2008 symbolized national pride, while the subsequent rise in housing prices led to government interventions, including purchase restrictions in 2016 [16]. Group 3: Social Changes - The year 2016 was pivotal, with a notable shift towards "consumption downgrade" among households, indicating changing consumer behaviors and market dynamics [20]. - The emergence of new internet giants like Pinduoduo and Kuaishou highlighted the potential of the underserved lower-tier markets [20]. - The COVID-19 pandemic brought about a collective reflection on life and societal pressures, particularly affecting young people's views on family and career [22]. Group 4: Cultural Reflections - A nostalgic trend emerged in 2020, with younger generations romanticizing the early 2000s, despite the ongoing technological revolutions that posed new challenges [23]. - The article concludes with a dialogue between a young journalist and a seasoned observer, emphasizing the role of the younger generation in shaping the future [24].

Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 50.1, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone [2][8] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from last month, also returning to the expansion zone [2][8] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting a 1.0 percentage point increase from the previous month, signaling overall economic recovery [2][8] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a large-scale equipment update and consumption upgrade policy for 2026, with an initial funding of 62.5 billion yuan to support the replacement of old consumer goods [2][3] - The subsidy for purchasing new cars is set at 12% or 10% of the car price, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan or 15,000 yuan, maintaining the 2025 standards [2][3] - The scope of household appliance subsidies has been narrowed to six categories, with the subsidy rate for first-level energy-efficient appliances reduced from 20% to 15%, and the maximum subsidy per appliance decreased from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan [2][3] Market Performance - On the last trading day of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.09% to 3,968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% to 13,525.02 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.23% to 3,203.17 points [5][11] - The market turnover was reported at 20,659.23 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous trading day [6][12] - The two-margin balance was recorded at 25,552.84 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous day [6][12] Sector Analysis - The defense, media, and real estate sectors showed strong performance, with increases of 2.13%, 1.54%, and 1.13% respectively [5][11] - Conversely, the telecommunications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and electronics sectors experienced declines of 1.35%, 1.10%, and 1.02% respectively [5][11]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-31 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《工业企业利润延续放缓，结构性亮 点显现》 - 2025.12.29 宏观研究 2026 年两新政策总量微调，结构聚焦 核心观点 2025 年 12 月 30 日，国家发展改革委、财政部联合发布了《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》（发改环 资〔2025〕1745 号），旨在推动经济高质量发展，促进消费升级和产 业转型。2026 年政策在资金投放、支持范围、补贴模式上进行系统性 调整，相较于 2025 年呈现"总量微调、结构聚焦、效率提升"特征。 第一，在支持范围方面，扩容与收缩并举，聚焦核心领域。（1） 设备更新支持范围有所扩容，新增老旧小区加装电梯、养老机构设备 更新、商业综合体设施升级等项目，精准对接民生短板与消费场景升 级。（2）消费品以旧换新更聚焦重点消费品，呈现" ...

近日，晨光乳业旗下高端品牌"供港壹号"凭借在华南高端乳品市场的卓越表现，正式斩获北京吾德研究有限公司授予的"华南高端乳品销量领先"权威认 证。 有市场观点认为，此次"华南高端乳品销量领先"认证的授予，不仅以客观数据有力证实了供港壹号在华南高端乳品细分市场中销量占据显著优势，稳固了 其区域市场领导者的地位，更深度洞察到在当下消费升级持续深化、居民健康意识不断提升的大背景下，华南消费者对于高端乳品的需求结构正发生深刻 变化。他们不再仅仅满足于基本的营养供给，而是对产品的品质纯净度、营养成分含量、生产工艺先进性以及品牌信誉度等方面提出了更为严苛且多元化 的要求。 华南地区作为我国经济发达、消费升级趋势显著的区域之一，消费者对高端乳品的需求日益旺盛，对产品品质、营养、口感等方面的要求也更为严苛。供 港壹号精准洞察华南消费者的需求，不断优化产品矩阵，2025年推出了供港壹号4.1蛋白纯牛奶、供港壹号哞咘咘儿童奶等契合区域消费习惯的高端乳 品。无论是满足日常营养需求的纯牛奶系列，还是注重品质与健康的有机/高钙系列，都凭借出色的产品力赢得了消费者的广泛好评。 当前，高端乳品竞争已进入"品质为王"的新阶段。供港壹号此次获"华 ...

Core Insights - JD.com and JD Finance have launched the "White Bar Annual Bill" query service, allowing users to review their annual consumption history and savings from interest-free and government-subsidized measures [1] - The "2025 JD White Bar Consumption Report" indicates that in 2025, JD White Bar provided over 17.9 billion yuan in interest subsidies, a 29% year-on-year increase, with nearly 100 million interest-free orders [1] - The implementation of the national consumer loan interest subsidy policy on JD's platform has created a combined effect of "policy benefits + platform subsidies," significantly enhancing consumer purchasing power [3] Summary by Sections Consumer Experience - Consumers have reported significant savings through the use of interest-free installments and subsidies, with one user saving approximately 5,200 yuan over the year by utilizing these benefits for various household appliances [5] - Another consumer, a young office worker, was able to purchase a 65-inch smart TV with a monthly payment of only 200-300 yuan after applying the national subsidy and interest-free installment plan [5] - A rural farmer upgraded his production equipment using the White Bar service, benefiting from a manageable monthly payment of 1,000 yuan, which improved his farming efficiency [6] Market Trends - The data shows that 43% of interest-free transaction amounts come from third-tier cities and below, indicating a clear trend of consumption upgrades in these markets [6] - Categories such as large home appliances and maternal and infant products have seen a 32% year-on-year increase in installment orders, reflecting a growing demand for quality consumer goods [6] Industry Analysis - Industry experts highlight that the annual bill data from 300 million consumers demonstrates the significant impact of the "policy guidance + platform support" model on boosting consumption [8] - The annual bill serves as both a personal consumption summary and a direct reflection of the stable recovery of the consumer market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Liberation Monument business district in Chongqing is evolving into a vibrant cultural and commercial hub, blending historical significance with modern consumer experiences, thereby driving new vitality in the consumption market [3][5][6]. Group 1: Historical Significance and Development - The Liberation Monument area has a rich history, with significant commercial milestones such as the opening of Chongqing's first department store in 1950 and the establishment of the first foreign enterprise in 1989 [4]. - The area has been recognized as a national demonstration pedestrian street and a national-level night cultural and tourism consumption gathering area, highlighting its importance in Chongqing's economic landscape [5]. Group 2: Cultural and Commercial Integration - Recent developments have transformed historical sites into modern attractions, such as the Chongqing Financial History Museum and cultural exchange venues, integrating history into contemporary commercial life [6]. - The area features over 30 cultural relics and more than 20 popular tourist attractions, making it a rich cultural resource and a key area for historical preservation [5]. Group 3: New Consumption Trends - The business district is diversifying its offerings with new consumption formats, including unique bars, entertainment venues, and flagship stores of international brands, enhancing the consumer experience [7][8]. - The introduction of over 200 flagship stores and hosting of numerous international events have positioned the area as a key player in the "first release economy" and night economy [8]. Group 4: Internationalization and Economic Growth - The Liberation Monument area serves as a vital trade window for Chongqing, leveraging its status as a free trade zone and aiming to create a world-class business environment [9][10]. - The district has attracted over 700 foreign enterprises and is recognized for its consumer-friendly environment, with significant international engagement through various economic activities [10]. Group 5: Future Development Plans - Future initiatives aim to enhance the area's commercial upgrade and international appeal, establishing it as a leading destination for global commerce and cultural exchange [10].

此外，在设备更新方面，政策支持范围也在总体延续的基础上，增加了老旧小区加装电梯、养老机构、 消防救援、检验检测以及线下消费商业设施等与民生和安全密切相关的领域，体现出政策对提升社会整 体福祉与安全水平的关切。 汽车以旧换新：由定额补贴调整为按新车销售价格的一定比例给予补贴，补贴上限保持不变。 家电以旧换新：补贴标准明确为对个人消费者购买上述6类家电中1级能效或水效标准的产品，按 销售价格的15% 给予补贴，每位消费者每类产品限补1件，每件补贴不超过1500元。 数码及智能产品购新：补贴标准保持按产品销售价格的15%执行，每位消费者每类产品限补1件， 每件补贴上限为500元。 邹蕴涵表示，此次优化旨在更好地结合市场内生需求与政策效力，为民生需求"解渴"，为消费升级提供 助力，推动明年消费平稳向好。 为保障政策及时落地见效，满足元旦、春节等传统消费旺季的需求，国家已于近日向地方提前下达2026 年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债资金，专项用于支持消费品以旧换新。各地将结合本地实际，尽快组 织落实，以提升政策效能。 国家发展改革委、财政部于12月30日联合发布关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的 通 ...

以旧换新方面，转让旧车购买新能源车的，可获得新购车车价8%的补贴，最高不超过1.5万元；购买2.0L及以下排量燃油车的，可获得新购车车价 6%的补贴，最高不超过1.3万元。以此计算，以旧换新购买新能源车价格大于等于18.75万元的可拿满补贴，购买油车价格大于等于21.67万元的可拿 满补贴。 "（与车价关联）这意味着同样资金量可以补贴更多车。"中国汽车流通协会副秘书长郎学红认为。 值得注意的是，为抢抓元旦、春节消费旺季，国家发展改革委会同财政部已向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债，支持消费品以旧 换新资金计划。这意味着从明年1月1日开始，购买新车或即可享受新国补。 12月30日，在今年取得积极成效后，汽车"两新"补贴延续政策终于落地。业界普遍认为，2026年"两新"补贴政策超出预期，将有利于稳定明年车市 增长。 12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》（下称《通知》），将继续支持汽车报 废更新与汽车置换更新。 "政府产业消费政策的稳定性和延续性，对行业继续健康发展是个利好。"有头部新势力车企高管向智通财经记者表示。 不同于202 ...