对于金价未来走势，市场不乏乐观预测。有美国分析家认为，到 2028 年底至 2029 年初（特朗普任期可 能结束的时间段），国际黄金价格或飙涨至 7000 美元 / 盎司，届时国内饰品黄金价格可能达到 1600- 2000 元 / 克。这一预测虽显激进，却反映出市场对黄金的信心 —— 只要特朗普政府持续推动宽松货币 政策、美国经济风险未得到有效缓解，黄金作为避险与抗通胀资产的吸引力就不会减弱。对普通民众而 言，需理性看待金价波动，若出于投资目的购金，还需充分考虑自身风险承受能力，避免盲目跟风。 美国的降息预期与经济风险，更是为金价上涨添了 "一把火"。特朗普对美联储政策不满，强压之下美 国 9 月已实施一次降息，且有消息称他希望未来将利率降至 0 左右 —— 当前美国利率约 4.5%，这意味 着巨大的降息空间。一旦美元进入持续降息周期，美元汇率大概率走弱，而以美元定价的黄金、石油等 国庆假期期间，国际黄金价格一路飙升，突破 4000 美元 / 盎司大关，这波涨势让不少人直呼 "意外"。 对正筹备婚礼的年轻人来说，金价上涨直接改变了婚嫁消费计划 —— 原本的 "五金" 需求不得不缩减为 "三金"，毕竟饰品黄金价 ...

节后首个交易日，A股迎来开门红。 周四，沪指突破3900点整数关口，续创10年新高，年内累涨超17%;科创50指数涨幅飙超5%，年内累涨 超59%。 沪深两市成交额连续第90个交易日突破1万亿元。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 0 | 3931.07 | +48.29 | 1.24% | 17.28% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 3295.58 | +57.42 | 1.77% | 53.88% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 13763.88 | +237.37 | 1.75% | 32.16% | | 899050 | 北证50 | | 1532.43 | +3.80 | 0.25% | 47.66% | | 000688 | 科创50 | | 1578.88 | +83.59 | 5.59% | 59.65% | 市场聚焦的热点中，成长与周期板块共舞，贵金属、黄金、铜等有色金属板块炙手可热。 截至发稿 ...

长假期间事件频发，全球风险资产大涨，国际商品市场整体表现强势，贵金属表现尤为瞩目，其中，国 际现货黄金价格8日突破每盎司4000美元关口，创下历史新高；COMEX黄金期货也在长假期间累计涨 近5%，同步创下历史新高。 节后首个交易日，10月9日早盘国内贵金属双双高开，沪金期货跳空大幅高开，日内涨幅持续扩大，截 至上午收盘，主力合约一度涨超5%，盘中最高触及918.88元／克，续创新高；沪银主力合约一度涨超 3%，同步刷新上市新高。 此外，黄金概念股也大幅高开，截至上午收盘，四川黄金、山东黄金涨停，中金黄金、晓程科技涨超 8%，招金黄金、赤峰黄金、山金国际涨超7%。 在黄金大涨下，国内多个金饰克价再创新高，多家站上1160元／克。9日上午，周生生足金饰品价格达 到1170元／克，周大福为1168元／克，老庙黄金为1160元／克。 市场避险需求强劲，国际金价涨势如虹 自当地时间10月1日起，美国联邦政府正式进入"停摆"状态，成为近七年来首次全面暂停非必要运作的 重大公共事件。据路透社报道，受政府"关门"影响，有约75万名联邦雇员被迫停薪休假，而不能离岗的 军队及边境巡逻人员等其他职员暂时"无薪上班"。更严峻的是， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen's status as a safe-haven currency is increasingly being questioned amid global tensions, leading to heightened selling pressure and a drop to an eight-month low this week [2]. Group 1: Yen's Safe-Haven Status - Historically, investors have turned to the yen during market turmoil due to Japan's large current account surplus, stable political system, and strong domestic investor base [2]. - Recent trends show that the yen's performance as a hedging tool has become more unstable, with a shift towards assets like gold, undermining the yen's position [2][4]. - The yen's correlation with the S&P 500 has turned negative, indicating that it is no longer behaving as a traditional safe-haven asset [2][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - Japan is the only major central bank maintaining a tightening stance, while other global central banks are moving towards rate cuts, creating a unique financial environment [4]. - The dollar-yen exchange rate's correlation with the VIX has turned positive, suggesting that the yen is no longer following expected patterns of market volatility [4]. - The implied volatility of the dollar-yen exchange rate has significantly decreased, indicating a lack of urgency for hedging against yen weakness [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Alternatives - Despite a nearly 3% appreciation of the yen against the dollar this year, it remains one of the worst-performing currencies in the G-10 [7]. - Asset management firms have reduced net long positions in the yen by nearly 40% since late April, while hedge funds are increasingly shorting the yen [7]. - Investors are turning to other hedging tools, with the Swiss franc being viewed as more reliable and cost-effective than the yen [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Speculation - The current trend of yen weakness is expected to be temporary, with potential government intervention if the dollar-yen rate reaches 160 [8]. - The yen is becoming more susceptible to speculative capital flows, moving away from its historical role as a stable asset [8]. - The one-month risk reversal indicator for the dollar-yen exchange rate has reached its highest level since September 2022, reflecting increased market bets against the yen [8].

国庆假期的深圳，正在上演资产配置的冰与火之歌。 双节长假期间，市场期待新政后的"银十"似乎又再次缺席。仔细算来，今年已是连续第4年缺席，新房 成交量虽未延续同比下滑态势，但市场观望情绪依然浓厚。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，水贝黄金市场因国际金价持续攀升而呈现购销两旺的景象，"水贝黄金"在国庆 消费的热度飙升。 10月8日，COMEX黄金价格突破4069美元/盎司历史高位，直指4100美元，而距离突破4000美元关口仅 时隔两日。 这种资产偏好的转变在消费端表现得尤为明显，南山某项目销售表示长假期间居民更倾向于安排出行而 非集中看房，加上近年来房产市场的降温，这些因素都很大程度稀释了市场热度。 "四年前挤满售楼处的人群，现在正涌向水贝的黄金柜台。"该销售说道。 上述销售进一步透露道，其客户群体中已出现趁着九月新政窗口期，处置非核心房产，转而增配黄金等 避险资产的情况。 "金九银十"褪色 深圳楼市以价换量冲刺年终 进入四季度，房企面临资金回笼与高库存的双重压力。在传统销售旺季"十一"黄金周，开发商不再强调 热销氛围，而是将"打折让利"作为最直接的破局手段。 昔日铺天盖地的成交喜报被各类促销方案取代，价格调整也呈现结构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is increasingly losing its status as a reliable safe-haven asset amid rising skepticism in the market, leading to a significant depreciation trend against the US dollar, reaching an eight-month low [1][2]. Group 1: Yen's Current Status - The yen's traditional role as a safe-haven currency is being questioned due to Japan's unique financial environment and political uncertainties, prompting investors to seek alternative hedging options like gold, silver, and the Swiss franc [1][2][5]. - The recent political developments, including the unexpected victory of a conservative candidate in Japan's ruling party election, have further exacerbated the yen's depreciation, with the exchange rate surpassing the critical 150 mark against the dollar [2][5]. - Historical patterns of yen appreciation during market turmoil are no longer reliable, as the yen has shown a negative correlation with the S&P 500 index during periods of risk asset sell-offs [2][5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly reducing their net long positions in the yen, with a nearly 40% cut in net long positions by global asset managers since late April, while hedge funds are predominantly shorting the yen [6][8]. - Alternative hedging options, such as the Swiss franc, are gaining traction among professional traders, with the franc showing more reliable and cost-effective hedging properties compared to the yen [8]. - Gold has surged over 54% this year, driven by global uncertainties, and is viewed as a more favorable investment compared to the yen, with top investment firms predicting further increases in gold prices [8][9]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for the Yen - Despite the current challenges, the yen's long-term appeal as a defensive asset is not entirely diminished, as market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate policies continue to influence its value [9][10]. - The recent "Kishida trade" reflects market speculation on renewed fiscal stimulus and monetary easing under the new leadership, which has led to increased volatility in the financial markets [9][10]. - The yen's reliability as a safe-haven currency is being undermined by its increasing susceptibility to speculative capital flows, indicating a shift away from its historical role [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time, driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [1][3][4] - The recent U.S. government shutdown due to budget disagreements has raised concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt, further fueling the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4] - Analysts from various institutions, including Galaxy Securities and UBS, suggest that the A-share market, particularly the non-ferrous metals sector, is likely to continue its upward trend due to the strong performance of gold and other precious metals [2][4] Group 2 - Long-term perspectives indicate that the core value of gold as an investment remains unchanged, with increasing concerns over the U.S. dollar's creditworthiness due to rising government debt and fiscal deficits [4] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with projections indicating that reserves could reach 74.06 million ounces by September 2025, reflecting a consistent trend of accumulation [4] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce, citing significant inflows into gold ETFs and potential central bank purchases as key drivers [4] Group 3 - Investment opportunities in gold include various ETFs such as the Gold Fund ETF (518800), which directly corresponds to physical gold contracts, and the Gold Stock ETF (517400), which tracks the entire gold industry chain [5][7] - The Mining ETF (561330) focuses on a broader range of metals, including copper and lithium, allowing investors to capitalize on the rising gold prices while also capturing rebounds in other commodities [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of the U.S. government shutdown and the election of a new leader in Japan on global markets, particularly focusing on precious metals, currencies, and economic policies. Key Points and Arguments U.S. Government Shutdown - The shutdown has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices surpassing $3,900 and silver reaching a 14-year high, indicating a decline in investor risk appetite [1][2][3] - The shutdown may delay the release of CPI data, which could hinder the Federal Reserve's decision-making at the upcoming FOMC meeting, increasing policy uncertainty [1][4] - Revenal Lab estimates that the initial non-farm payroll figure is expected to be 60,000, exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus of 50,000, but ADP data showed a decline of 23,000, necessitating close monitoring of future non-farm data adjustments [1][4] - Historical data suggests that the actual impact of government shutdowns on GDP is limited, as seen during the 2018-2019 shutdown [4] Japanese Political Developments - The election of Kishi Sanae as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party continues the "Abenomics" approach, advocating for expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which may lead to a depreciation of the yen and rising long-term interest rates in Japan [3][5] - Kishi's policies could increase geopolitical uncertainty and enhance global debt sustainability concerns, prompting central banks to adopt more accommodative stances, benefiting precious metals and commodities [3][5] - The capital markets have already reacted, with the Nikkei index reaching historical highs and the yen depreciating to around 150 [5] Market Reactions - Overall, equity assets and commodities have seen upward trends, while the U.S. bond market remains volatile. Non-U.S. currencies and oil prices have declined, primarily due to OPEC's production increases [2] - The probability of the U.S. government shutdown lasting until October 15 is estimated at around 70%, which could exacerbate economic downturn risks and concerns over the credibility of the U.S. dollar [4] Other Important Insights - The combination of the U.S. government shutdown and Japan's political changes is likely to create a complex environment for investors, necessitating careful monitoring of economic indicators and market sentiment [1][3][5] - The potential for further layoffs in the U.S. federal workforce could add pressure to the labor market and raise concerns about the dollar's stability [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4000 per ounce, is driven by various factors including geopolitical risks, market uncertainty regarding U.S. monetary policy, and increased demand from central banks and retail investors [3][10][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A notable trend in gold jewelry sales is observed, with customers gravitating towards either small pieces or larger items over 30 grams, leading to a sales increase of over 30% year-on-year during the National Day holiday [3]. - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases [5][10]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created uncertainty in economic data releases, further fueling demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][12]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching 74.06 million ounces by the end of September 2025, indicating a cautious approach to reserve optimization [6][8]. - Global central banks have maintained high levels of gold purchases, with significant contributions from countries like China, Poland, Singapore, and India, reflecting a shift towards gold amid concerns over the dollar's dominance [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4300 to $4900, citing sustained inflows into ETFs and central bank purchases as key drivers [8][9]. Group 3: Economic and Political Influences - Political changes in France and Japan have heightened concerns over fiscal risks, contributing to the recent rebound in gold prices [5][10]. - Historical patterns show that gold prices tend to rise during periods of economic and political stress, with the current situation mirroring past crises [10][12]. - The shift in global monetary policy and geopolitical dynamics is prompting a reevaluation of gold's role as a store of value, suggesting a potential new order in the financial landscape [16].

来源：WIND 国庆期间黄金再度大涨，站上4000美元/盎司大关。浙商证券表示，此轮黄金大涨或存在几个重要的驱动因素。其一是对美联储降息预期的升温，以及对 于美国此轮经济增长的怀疑。疫情后的持续财政扩张，在支撑美国经济的同时，也弱化了美元本身的公信力，这使得黄金成为了稀缺的避险资产。其二则 是地缘政治等风险事件的持续发酵。例如，美国国会参议院9月30日晚未能通过年度拨款法案，时隔7年后美国政府再度停摆。据浙商证券分析，本轮停摆 主要由于两党对医保福利支出"是否加入预算案"产生分歧，共和党拒绝将医保内容加入预算，因其"会给非法移民提供医保"。此次分歧也侧面展示了美国 政府债务高企的现状，引发市场进一步担忧。我们认为，黄金的这些主要驱动因素仍然存在，建议投资者持续关注黄金基金ETF（518800），寻找回调后 布局机会。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 以上观点仅供参 ...