Group 1 - The recent surge in spot gold prices has seen it break through the $3,360 per ounce mark, with a slight pullback following the peak, indicating strong market interest in gold as an investment [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a cooling of interest rate hike expectations in the U.S., a weakening U.S. dollar, and central banks globally accumulating gold as a safety net, which affects supply and demand dynamics positively [3] - The current market sentiment is volatile, and while short-term gains are evident, a cautious approach is advised for long-term investors, suggesting to wait for potential price corrections before making new investments [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment strategy, likening it to a marathon rather than a sprint, and encourages investors to focus on understanding market fundamentals rather than chasing short-term trends [3] - Future monitoring of global inflation data and geopolitical situations is recommended as these factors are considered significant variables that could impact gold prices [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite the volatility in the US stock market in early April, Deutsche Bank's research suggests that many market movements may have been overreacted and are likely to mean revert [1] - Deutsche Bank's May report indicates that the panic regarding the dollar, US consumer data, and overall confidence in US assets may have been excessive, making valuations in certain sectors attractive [1][2] - The current market conditions reflect emotional swings, transitioning from extreme optimism post-2024 US elections to current pessimism, with many growth and policy expectations having completed a full cycle [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the decline of the dollar and US consumer stocks have been overstated, as the dollar index has experienced 11 corrections of over 10% since 1990, with a 10% drop so far in 2025 [2] - US consumer stocks have significantly dropped since April 2 due to tariff concerns and worries about US demand, with median declines in US consumer stocks being notably higher than their European counterparts [4] - Despite a low US consumer confidence index, retail sales in the US remain strong, growing above trend levels [6] Group 3 - From a relative valuation perspective, certain cyclical US consumer companies, including apparel and essentials, may begin to show investment appeal, as the valuation premium of the US compared to Europe has significantly decreased in some sectors [8] - During the sell-off in early April, no asset truly acted as a "safe haven," including US 10-year Treasury bonds, which behaved more like bonds from struggling emerging markets [9] - The US credit default swap (CDS) spreads increased by 15 basis points last month, reaching the highest level since concerns over the debt ceiling and Moody's downgrade, now close to levels seen in Greece and Italy [11]

涨疯了！黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> 现货黄金站上3370美元/盎司，日内涨1.1%。 ...

涨疯了！黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> 现货黄金日内涨幅达1.00%，现报3367.87美元/盎司。 ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East issues, have significantly increased the investment value of gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [1] - Gold prices are currently holding above the key level of $3,300 per ounce, demonstrating resilience amid rising geopolitical risks [1] - Recent market sentiment is characterized as "cautiously optimistic," with increased funds flowing into the gold market due to global macro uncertainties and safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has formed a clear bottoming pattern on the daily chart, alleviating previous downward pressure [2] - Key support level is identified at $3,300 per ounce, which serves as a critical dividing line for bullish and bearish sentiment [2] - The 4-hour Bollinger Band upper limit at $3,338 per ounce represents short-term resistance, with potential upward targets near $3,350 per ounce if bullish momentum continues [2] Group 3 - The 4-hour chart suggests that the recent price action indicates the end of a corrective wave, initiating a new upward trend [4] - The first upward wave is identified between $3,201 and $3,269, with a potential target for the third wave projected at around $3,332 [4] - Suggested trading strategy includes buying on dips in the $3,280-$3,285 range, with a stop loss at $3,272 and a target of $3,315-$3,325 [4]

换资前言： 交易，并不是做的次数多，才赚钱，也并不是涨了追涨，跌了追空，才赚钱，涨了追涨，跌了追空，看 似顺势，实则是绞肉机模式，真正的本质是，看清市场波动规律，看透市场核心方向，等待最佳的点 位，制定最有可能达成的交易计划。有计划的做交易，才是盈利的前提，市场的本质是高低循环，涨跌 交替，而交易的本质是，掌握盘中相对的高和低，去狙击有价值的交易机会，这个价值只有两点，第 一，概率，第二，空间。只有在相对高概率的高位或者低位去狙击，而且空间足够大，盈亏比合理，长 期积累，才能稳定盈利。就以上两条，没有十年的积累，是不可能做到的。所以，对于新手，学习远比 交易重要。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一（5月5日），现货黄金价格盘中重返3300美元上方，当前表现强劲。随着全球地缘政治局势持续紧 张，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力得到显著提升。俄乌冲突与中东地区紧张局势持续发酵，促使市场流动 性向黄金等避险资产转移。价格目前稳定在3300美元附近，展现出在地缘政治风险加剧环境下的韧性。 黄金今日扳回上一周的跌幅，重回3300美元上方，最高触及3328美元，日内涨幅超过80美元，达到 2.27 ...

从黄金类资产的交易结构上，近期观察到黄金 ETF 规模大幅增长，仅国内的黄金 ETF 在 4 月份规模上 涨超过 500 亿，对应 50-60 吨黄金现货需求。 A 股的黄金股票也纷纷创出年内新高，成交量显著放 大。以上现象说明投资者对黄金的投资热情迅速提升，出现短期交易拥挤的现象。 报告导读： 从交易结构的视角分析黄金的价格节奏。 从微观供需层面看，各国央行购金成为驱动金价上涨的重要动力， 2024 年各经济体央行购金约 1044 吨。随着金价的快速爬升，投资需求逐渐接力成为短期的主导力量， 2024 年投资需求量为 1179 吨，然 而金价高企同时也抑制了金饰类消费需求， 2024 年全球金饰消费量约 1877 吨环比 2023 年下降 11% ，工业领域的黄金需求量占比较低且稳定 2024 年仅为 326 吨。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号 ...

现货黄金站上3320美元/盎司，较日内低点上涨逾80美元，日内大涨2.4%。 涨疯了！黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> ...

现货黄金日内上涨1.5%，现报3290美元/盎司。 涨疯了！黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> ...

人民币走势强劲。 5月5日，离岸人民币兑美元升穿7.20关口，为去年11月以来首次，日内涨超100点。 富时中国A50指数期货直线拉升，最新报涨0.84%。 美元指数盘中跳水，再度跌破100大关，最低下探至99.673。 | < W | | | 美元指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | USDX.FX | | | | | | 99.7721 | | 前收 | 100.0424 | 开盘 | 99.9947 | | -0.2703 | -0.27% | 卖品 | 99.7721 | 买入 | 99.7721 | | 最高 | 100.0524 | 今年来 | -8.03% | 20日 | -3.60% | | 最低 | 99.6730 | 10日 | 1.44% | 60日 | -7.90% | | 分时 | 五日 | 目K | 周K | 月K | 更多 ( | | 叠加 | | | | | | | 100.4118 | | | | | 0.37% | | 100.0424 | | | | | 0.00% | | 99.6730 | | | | | ...