国际金银价格不断创出历史新高，港股市场相关概念股集体走强，其中，招金矿业(1818.HK)一度大涨近6%至40.36港元，创历史新高价，市值超1400亿 港元。 消息面上，由于地缘政治紧张局势不断加剧，对避险资产的需求上升，黄金和白银价格飙升至新的高位。现货白银昨日一度涨至95.89美元/盎司，再创历 史新高；现货黄金今日盘中已突破4820美元/盎司，亦再创历史新高。 ...

国际金银价格不断创出历史新高，港股市场相关概念股集体走强，其中，灵宝黄金(330.HK)一度大涨超8%至24.66港元，创历史新高价，市值超310亿港 元。 消息面上，由于地缘政治紧张局势不断加剧，对避险资产的需求上升，黄金和白银价格飙升至新的高位。现货白银昨日一度涨至95.89美元/盎司，再创历 史新高；现货黄金今日盘中已突破4830美元/盎司，亦再创历史新高。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - Overseas, concerns about geopolitics and fiscal sustainability triggered a systemic correction in the global bond market, with the US and Japanese bonds leading the decline. The US experienced a triple - kill in stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate, and market risk appetite deteriorated significantly. The market volatility is expected to rise. Domestically, the Ministry of Finance announced an active fiscal policy, and the A - share market is in a phase of shrinking volume and differentiation, but the medium - term trend remains positive [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals reached new highs due to geopolitical tensions and Poland's central bank's large - scale gold purchases. Base metals showed different trends, with copper expected to maintain high - level oscillations, aluminum adjusting, and zinc and lead under pressure. Agricultural products such as palm oil showed a strong oscillation trend, while bean and rapeseed meal were in a low - level oscillation [4][5][22][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: Geopolitical and fiscal sustainability concerns caused a global bond market correction. The US faced a triple - kill in stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate, with the dollar index falling to 98.5, the 10Y US bond yield reaching 4.3% and then dropping, and the US stock market falling by over 2%. Gold reached a new high of $4783, and market risk preference deteriorated [2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Finance committed to an "increasing only" active fiscal policy in 2026, with measures to support small and medium - sized enterprises and consumers. The A - share market is in a shrinking and differentiating phase, with short - term adjustments in the upward slope of stock indices but a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - On Tuesday, gold and silver reached new highs. Geopolitical tensions and Poland's central bank's large - scale gold purchase plan boosted the prices. The threat of US tariff hikes and EU's response to the Greenland issue increased geopolitical risks. It is expected that precious metals will remain strong in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a weak oscillation, and LME copper slightly corrected. Global copper inventories increased, with LME inventory rising to 156,000 tons and COMEX inventory reaching 547,000 tons. Trump's intervention in the Fed's policy and personnel appointment increased market risk aversion, and the soaring precious metals prices lifted the valuation center of copper. It is expected that copper prices will maintain high - level oscillations in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,500 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. LME aluminum also fell. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased. Trump's tariff threat on Europe increased political tensions, and in the fundamentals, supply was stable, and it was in the consumption off - season. The Shanghai aluminum market is in an oscillatory adjustment phase [8][10]. Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,671 yuan/ton, down 2.91%. The supply side had minor changes, with some production resumptions and planned maintenance. The consumption side had stable electrolytic aluminum procurement, and the inventory in the exchange increased rapidly. Alumina prices remained weak [11]. Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22,765 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. Cast aluminum maintained high - level oscillations based on low supply and cost support. Consumption was weak, and it is expected to remain in an oscillatory state [12]. Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc showed a narrow - range oscillation during the day and a downward shift at night. LME zinc closed down. The downstream procurement was for rigid demand, and the market was affected by increased risk aversion. It is expected that zinc prices will be under pressure in the short term [13][14]. Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated horizontally during the day and shifted downward at night. LME lead closed down. LME lead inventory increased significantly, and domestic downstream consumption was weak. Although there is cost support, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16][17]. Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated horizontally during the day and fell slightly at night. The rise in the yield of Japanese 40 - year bonds increased market risk aversion, suppressing tin prices. The fundamentals changed little, and tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated and adjusted. Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions weakened. Rebar production slightly decreased, and hot - rolled coil production increased with high inventory. The steel market is in the off - season, and steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate [19]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. Spot market transactions were 116 tons. Iron ore supply was high, and demand was weak in the off - season. Although there is a pre - holiday restocking expectation, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and adjusted. The coke spot market initiated the first round of price increases, but steel mills have not responded. Demand was affected by the off - season and steel mill maintenance, and supply was abundant. It is expected that the futures prices will oscillate weakly [21]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the bean and rapeseed meal futures showed mixed trends. Brazil's soybean exports in January are expected to reach 379 tons. As the Brazilian harvest progresses, South American supply is increasing. Domestic soybean arrivals are decreasing, and the market is in a state of de - stocking. It is expected that the futures prices will oscillate at a low level [22]. Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures closed up 1.2%. High - frequency data showed an improvement in palm oil exports and a decline in production. The market is affected by geopolitical risks, but the fundamentals of production and demand are improving. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [23][24].

Glapinsk认为，黄金是一种零信用风险的资产，不受其他国家货币政策决定的影响，并且对金融冲击具有较强的抵御能力，高额黄金储备也有助于提升波 兰经济的稳定性。 波兰央行(NBP)当地时间周二表示，已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划，此举将使该国的黄金储备总量增加到700吨。 波兰央行在一份声明中称："这将使波兰跻身全球黄金储备量最大的前10个国家之列。"波兰央行行长Adam Glapinsk上周宣布，他希望央行管理委员会将 黄金持有量上限从截至12月31日的550吨提高到700吨。 波兰黄金储备超越欧洲央行的消息，其意义远不止于象征层面。欧洲央行的黄金储备约为506.5吨，相较之下，波兰央行持有的550吨规模令人瞩目，也进 一步强化了波兰在欧洲金融体系中的地位。 波兰央行的购金行动正值黄金价格不断刷新历史纪录之际。尽管2026年价格上涨速度可能放缓，但主要金融机构的预测仍偏乐观。ING预计平均价格约为 每盎司4150美元，德意志银行给出4450美元，高盛将预测上调至4900美元。在全球需求强劲的情景下，摩根大通甚至预计价格可能达到每盎司5300美元。 Bassani-Prusik强调："央行需求上升是对经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has approved a plan to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, increasing the country's total gold reserves to 700 tons, positioning Poland among the top 10 countries globally in terms of gold reserves [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Reserve Increase - The NBP aims to raise the gold holding limit from 550 tons to 700 tons, as stated by NBP President Adam Glapinski [1]. - As of the end of December, gold accounted for 28.22% of Poland's foreign exchange reserves, marking one of the fastest changes in reserve structure among global central banks [4]. Group 2: Economic Stability and Strategic Asset - Glapinski views gold as a zero-credit-risk asset that is unaffected by other countries' monetary policies and has strong resilience against financial shocks, contributing to Poland's economic stability [3]. - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a strategic move to hedge against currency and financial crises, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting their gold reserves to continue growing in the next 12 months [5]. Group 3: Market Context and Price Predictions - Poland's significant gold purchases coincide with rising gold prices, which are expected to average around $4,150 per ounce according to ING, with Deutsche Bank predicting $4,450 and Goldman Sachs raising its forecast to $4,900. JPMorgan even anticipates prices could reach $5,300 per ounce [5]. - The demand for gold from central banks is a response to economic tensions and geopolitical changes, influencing individual investors' decisions indirectly [6]. Group 4: Diverging Economic Opinions - While the interest in gold as a safe-haven asset increases amid market uncertainty, some economists argue that a high proportion of gold in reserves may hinder flexible reserve management in modern economies, suggesting funds could be more effectively allocated to other productive investments [7].

Group 1 - The global market risk appetite has significantly decreased following President Trump's renewed tariff threats towards Europe, leading to a sell-off in major stock indices [2][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 870.74 points, a decline of 1.76%, closing at 48,488.59 points; the S&P 500 dropped by 143.15 points, down 2.06%, at 6,796.86 points; and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 561.07 points, a 2.39% drop, ending at 22,954.32 points, marking the worst single-day performance since October 10 of the previous year [2] - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 4.32%, Apple down 3.45%, and Microsoft down 1.16%, among others [2] Group 2 - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the "fear index," rose to a two-month high, reflecting increased market anxiety [3] - Trading volume on U.S. stock markets reached approximately 20.6 billion shares, significantly above the 20-day average of 17.01 billion shares, indicating concentrated selling pressure [3] - Analysts suggest that the current geopolitical tensions regarding tariffs are more of an emotional shock rather than a fundamental change that would trigger a deep market correction [3] Group 3 - The global bond market is also experiencing spillover effects, with upward pressure on some European government bonds due to potential increases in defense spending [4] - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note reached a high of 4.313%, the highest since late August, closing at 4.287% after a rise of 5.6 basis points [5] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been adjusted downward, with projections for a reduction of approximately 47 basis points in 2026, down from 53 basis points at the end of the previous year [5] Group 4 - Netflix reported fourth-quarter revenue of $12.1 billion, exceeding market expectations of $11.97 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.56, also slightly above forecasts [6] - The company anticipates full-year revenue for 2026 to reach between $50.7 billion and $51.7 billion, with expectations for advertising revenue to potentially double in the future [6] - Following the announcement, Netflix's stock price fell by 4.9% in after-hours trading, influenced by merger financing and market sentiment [7] Group 5 - Gold prices surged significantly, with spot gold rising approximately 2% to $4,757.33 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $4,756.93 during the session [7] - Silver prices experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, settling at $94.38 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $95.87 [7] - Oil prices showed volatility, with light crude oil futures for February delivery rising by $0.90 to $60.34 per barrel, a 1.51% increase [8]

1月20日晚间，丹麦养老基金AkademikerPension表示，计划在本月底前清仓美国国债，原因是担心美国 总统特朗普的政策带来"不容忽视"的信用风险。 AkademikerPension首席投资官安德斯·舍尔德（Anders Schelde）周二表示："从根本上说，美国已经算 不上一个优质信用主体；从长期看，美国政府的财政也不可持续。" 这一动向出现之际，特朗普正不断加大"接管格陵兰岛"的威胁力度，引发欧洲盟友，尤其是丹麦伙伴的 震惊与不满。格陵兰岛是丹麦王国的一部分，面对特朗普提出"购买格陵兰岛"的想法，格陵兰岛方面一 直明确回应：不出售。 舍尔德说："覆水难收，几个月后局势或许会更平静一些，而且特朗普也不能再次连任，下一任总统可 能会有所不同。但五年、六年、十年之后呢？我认为欧洲已经强烈意识到，我们必须能够自立自强。" AkademikerPension也是最新一家下调美国国债持仓的丹麦养老基金。教师养老金基金Laerernes Pension 在本月格陵兰岛争端升温之前，就已经退出了大部分美国国债持仓，理由是担忧美国债务的可持续性， 以及对美联储独立性受到威胁的担忧。管理约1200亿美元资产的PF ...

当地时间1月20日，美国市场再现"股汇债三杀"。 美股三大指数大幅低开，截至收盘，美股三大指数大幅收跌，道琼斯指数跌1.76%，标普500指数跌2.06%并创去年10月以来最大单日跌幅，纳斯达克综合 指数跌2.39%。 美债方面，美国30年期国债收益率日内上涨超8个基点至4.916%；美国10年期国债收益率日内最高触及4.309%，均创去年9月初以来新高。债券收益率和 价格走势相反，收益率上升意味着债券价格下跌。 比特币跌破90000美元，日内跌2.84%。 贵金属方面，现货黄金盘中突破4750美元，再度刷新历史新高。截至发稿，现货黄金涨1.57%，报4742.682美元/盎司，现货白银报94.944美元/盎司，日内 上涨0.58%，年内累计涨幅超过30%。 高盛表示，特朗普针对欧洲国家的关税威胁"具有破坏性"，将在本周对美元构成压力。高盛首席外汇与新兴市场策略师Kamakshya Trivedi表示："我们已 经连续两个周末遇到这种情况了——出现破坏性的美国政策，这会让围绕美国资产的光环多少受到质疑。此前围绕美联储的问题就是如此，我认为这次围 绕关税的问题也会如此"。 桥水基金创始人达利欧也警告称，特朗普总 ...

波兰央行(NBP)当地时间周二表示，已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划，此举将使该国的黄金储备 总量增加到700吨。 Bassani-Prusik强调："央行需求上升是对经济紧张局势与地缘政治变化的回应。尽管机构性购买不会直 接推高价格，但会间接影响个人投资者的决策。" Glapinsk认为，黄金是一种零信用风险的资产，不受其他国家货币政策决定的影响，并且对金融冲击具 有较强的抵御能力，高额黄金储备也有助于提升波兰经济的稳定性。 正如波兰造币厂专家所指出，市场不确定性越高，投资者对黄金这种避险资产的兴趣就越大，也日益认 识到黄金在长期投资中的资产保护作用。 截至12月底的估算数据显示，黄金在波兰外汇储备中的占比为28.22%，成为全球央行中储备结构变化 最快的案例之一。 在2025年最后几个月，波兰大举增持黄金，当时正值市场波动加剧与地缘政治紧张局势升温之际。 根据世界黄金协会的分析，2025年全球央行持续呈现增持黄金的趋势。除少数例外外，大多数国家都在 增加黄金持有量，将其作为对冲货币与金融危机的战略资产。在2025年，接受调查的央行中高达95%预 计未来12个月黄金储备将继续增长。 波兰造币厂投资产品与 ...

不过，市场上也有不同声音。在达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛期间，古根海姆合伙公司首席投资官Anne Walsh对AkademikerPension的做法表示不认同。她认为，尽管地缘政治不确定性加剧了市场紧张情绪， 美国作为全球最大经济体，其信用基本面依然稳健，至少在今年上半年，信贷和股市基础仍然良好。 Walsh指出，美联储在当前周期中相对审慎，政策立场较历史更偏向宽松，通胀仍在放缓，这对美国信 用环境构成支撑。她同时强调，自2025年关税引发的市场动荡以来，资产配置多元化已成为投资者共 识，资金正逐步从过度集中于美国的结构，转向更均衡的全球布局。 在不确定性上升的背景下，贵金属表现尤为突出。Walsh特别提到黄金的强劲走势，称其有望继续受益 于市场动荡。数据显示，金价自年初以来已累计上涨近10%，再次凸显其在美元资产波动时期的避险属 性。 Schelde还提到，特朗普有关"接管格陵兰岛"的言论，是促使该基金撤离美债的重要因素之一。围绕财 政纪律的担忧、美元走弱预期，也共同削弱了其对美国资产的信心。格陵兰岛隶属于丹麦王国，当地及 丹麦方面已多次明确表示该岛"并非出售品"。随着特朗普不断升级相关言论，丹麦在欧洲的盟友 ...