Group 1 - The average weekly earnings in the UK for the first three months of 2025 increased by 5.6% compared to the same period last year, slightly below the forecasted growth of 5.7% [1] - The Bank of England is closely monitoring inflationary pressures in the UK labor market as it considers the possibility of accelerating interest rate cuts [1]

2025年前三个月英国工资水平增长5.6% 金十数据5月13日讯，英国国家统计局周二表示，与去年同期相比，2025年前三个月英国人的平均一周 薪资（不包括奖金）增长了5.6%。经济学家预计增幅为5.7%。英国央行正在密切关注英国劳动力市场 的通胀压力，同时考虑是否加快降息步伐。 ...

智通财经5月12日电，美联储理事库格勒表示，通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标。非住房市场服务的通胀 率在三月仍维持在3.4%，表明持续存在的通胀压力。 美联储理事库格勒：通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标 ...

美联储理事库格勒：通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标。非住房市场服务的通胀率在三月仍维持在3.4%， 表明持续存在的通胀压力。 ...

英国央行副行长隆巴尔代利：英国潜在的通胀压力持续下降。 ...

Group 1 - The survey indicates that UK employers are cautious about hiring intentions for the next three months due to recent tax increases and global economic uncertainty [1] - The CIPD reported a decline in the employment market expectation index from +13 to +8, reaching a historical low outside of the pandemic period [1] - Large private enterprises showed particularly poor performance this quarter, contributing to the overall decline in the index [1] Group 2 - KPMG's CEO noted that despite a slight recovery in recruitment activities, it does not indicate a market turnaround due to ongoing pressures such as rising costs and global economic uncertainty [2] - The Bank of England expressed concerns about the cooling labor market and the potential for strong wage growth to lead to sustained inflationary pressures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook anticipates that the trade policies and related uncertainties of the Trump administration will dampen productivity growth in the short term, potentially leading the Fed to maintain policy interest rates unchanged for a longer period [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - A decline in productivity and a slowdown in potential economic growth will likely increase inflationary pressures [1] - Lower productivity, under unchanged conditions, may lead to support for keeping interest rates elevated for an extended duration [1] Group 2: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Uncertainty regarding the final levels and duration of tariffs may reduce business investment, thereby impacting productivity [1] - If protectionist trade policies favor less efficient companies or disrupt supply chains, productivity could also be adversely affected [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Artificial intelligence has the potential to enhance U.S. productivity in the coming years, potentially offsetting the negative impacts of trade policies [1]

智通财经5月10日电，美联储COOK表示，关税政策可能会降低生产率，限制潜在产出，增加通胀压 力。生产率较低的经济可能需要更高的利率来遏制通货膨胀。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the May 2025 meeting, the Fed unanimously agreed to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%. The meeting statement emphasized an increase in stagflation risks, and Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing the current economic activity is robust and the cost of waiting is low [3]. - The changes in the meeting statement are mainly in two aspects: an increase in the uncertainty of the economic outlook and a rise in the risks of both high unemployment and high inflation [3]. - Powell's wait - and - see stance is due to the Fed having cut interest rates by 100BP, with the current interest rate being only moderately restrictive, and the economy remaining in good condition [3]. - Future prospects are highly uncertain. Inflation pressure may appear earlier than the upward pressure on unemployment. In the short term, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, constraining the Fed's probability of easing, and the probability of a rate cut in June is low [3]. - In terms of strategies, for US Treasuries, the better - than - expected April non - farm payroll data led to a callback in market rate - cut expectations, and the US Treasury yield curve flattened bearishly. There is a good opportunity to enter the short - end US Treasuries, and a bullish view is maintained on the long - end in the short term. For the US dollar index, it is expected to oscillate overall this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation in the US may support its performance [3]. Summary by Related Content Fed Meeting - The Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in the May 2025 meeting, and the meeting statement emphasized stagflation risks [3]. - The statement changes included increased economic outlook uncertainty and rising risks of high unemployment and high inflation [3]. Powell's Stance - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing there's no need to act in a hurry as the current monetary policy is only moderately restrictive and the economy is in good shape [3][4]. - He thought the cost of waiting is low, with the labor market stable, unemployment low, and no large - scale layoffs [3][4]. - He also mentioned that the relationship between expected survey data and consumer spending is weak [3][4]. Future Outlook - Inflation pressure may appear earlier than unemployment pressure. Considering corporate inventories, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, and the probability of a June rate cut is low [3]. Investment Strategies - For US Treasuries, there's a good entry opportunity for short - end bonds, and a bullish view is held on long - end bonds in the short term. If policy uncertainty decreases, it may improve long - end liquidity and term premium [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation may support it [3].

英国央行：货币政策委员会考虑了国内通胀压力可能演变的多种情景，以及可能需要调整政策方向的各 种情况。 ...