Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict introduces a new phase of geopolitical risk, which is expected to negatively impact Asian risk assets due to their sensitivity to rising energy prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities marks a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - Direct U.S. involvement may prolong tensions in the region, increasing the risk of supply disruptions [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - A prolonged conflict could exacerbate inflationary pressures and drag down growth expectations across Asia [1] - The likelihood of a swift resolution to the conflict has diminished, prompting investors to reassess market risks [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Anticipation of increased geopolitical instability and high oil prices may lead to a flight to safety, with a stronger demand for the U.S. dollar [1] - Asian risk assets are expected to weaken as a result of these market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent military action by President Trump against Iran's nuclear facilities has raised concerns about market volatility and energy prices, with analysts predicting an initial spike in oil prices and increased uncertainty in the market [1][2]. Energy Market Impact - Mark Spindel, CIO of Potomac River Capital, anticipates initial panic in the market, leading to higher oil prices due to increased uncertainty and risk exposure [2]. - Jamie Cox from Harris Financial Group expects oil prices to surge initially but stabilize within a few days, suggesting that Iran may seek a peace agreement after losing leverage [2]. - Jack Ablin, CIO of Cresset Capital, warns that this event introduces new complex risks that will clearly impact energy prices and could potentially increase inflation [2]. Stock Market Reactions - Mark Malek, CIO of Siebert Financial, holds an optimistic view on the stock market, believing the military action will be positive, especially since it appears to be a one-time event rather than a prolonged conflict [3]. - Malek emphasizes the need to remain vigilant regarding the potential for Iran to block the critical Strait of Hormuz, which would significantly alter market dynamics [3]. Pre-Market Observations - Investors are closely monitoring early signals before the market opens, with Spindel noting that there is ample time for consideration and discussions before trading begins [4]. - Analysts believe the bold military action contrasts sharply with previous expectations of negotiations, and market participants are assessing potential damage, which may take time [4]. - The core concern for investors remains the potential retaliatory measures from Iran and whether this action is truly a one-time event or could escalate into a broader regional conflict [4].

Group 1 - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations despite inflation data showing a 3.4% increase in May, significantly above the 2% target [1][2] - There is a division within the Monetary Policy Committee regarding the economic outlook, with three members voting for a rate cut, indicating a conflict between prioritizing anti-inflation measures and growth preservation [1] - Analysts predict a potential rate cut of 50 basis points by the end of the year, with an 80% probability of a cut in August, as the labor market continues to loosen and wage growth is expected to slow significantly [1][2] Group 2 - The UK is facing dual challenges from geopolitical and external risks, particularly due to the Israel-Iran conflict, which has caused oil prices to surge by 8.5% in a week, impacting household energy bills and business costs [2] - The Bank of England remains cautious about inflation, particularly as service sector inflation and geopolitical risks contribute to uncertainty in inflation reduction, despite a belief that tariff shocks have a limited impact on global GDP [2] - The economic outlook shows increasing downward pressure, with a predicted GDP growth of only 0.25% for Q2, leading the Bank of England to adopt a "gradual and cautious" approach to interest rate adjustments [2]

尽管多数官员仍预期2025年将降息两次或更多，但分歧加剧反映出在经济信号混杂的背景下，美联储维 持审慎立场。 鲍威尔记者会：数据导向，关税风险引关注 在会后记者会上，鲍威尔重申点阵图并非承诺，仅是"较弱的信号"，未来政策路径将完全依据经济数据 调整。 鲍威尔特别指出当前通胀面临上行风险，强调两大担忧： 美联储在周三如市场预期般维持利率不变。然而，政策制定者仍暗示2025年可能降息，不过美联储主席 鲍威尔提醒市场不要对这一预期过于乐观，指出关税与通胀相关的不确定性依然存在。 经济预测摘要 由于按兵不动已被市场充分定价，焦点转向了6月的《经济预测摘要》（SEP）。最新的点阵图显示， 美联储仍预计在2025年将进行两次各25个基点的降息。然而，内部观点依然分歧明显——部分官员甚至 预计明年不会降息，凸显了路径的不确定性。 6月点阵图| 来源：美联储 美国股市周三小幅收低，反映出投资者对美联储谨慎立场的复杂解读。尽管维持利率不变在预期之内， 但政策语气显示出更多耐心与不确定性，令股市略有承压。 与此同时，美元获得一定支撑，投资者解读为：即便未来可能降息，美联储在通胀与经济放缓之下可能 将维持"更久的高利率"。 ·与关 ...

瑞士央行行长：通胀压力已减缓。此次降息旨在应对通胀压力的减缓。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月19日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普称伊朗主动提出谈判，鲍威尔预计通胀压力显著上升，金价回落； 美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数涨0.06%报 98.89，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1944；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收 益率涨1.58个基点报4.393%；COMEX黄金期货跌0.60%报3386.40美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货785.42，现货782.02，基差-3.4，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单18168千克，减少9千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日美国金融市场休市，关注2025陆家嘴论坛、英央行利率 ...

智通财经APP获悉，上周，美国原油库存降幅创下近一年来最大值，这表明美国石油市场供应趋紧，而 此时以色列与伊朗之间的冲突又可能进一步影响中东地区的石油供应。据美国能源信息署周三发布的数 据，截至 6 月 13 日的一周内，石油库存减少了 1150 万桶，这是自 2024 年 6 月底以来的最大降幅。 库存减少的主要原因来自美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区，该地区是美国石油出口的主要区域。目前该地区的库 存水平为 2023 年 12 月以来的最低值。产量下降的原因是多方面的：一方面，炼油厂的需求不断上升， 因为夏季驾车旺季的到来促使他们增加了汽油的产量;另一方面，净原油进口量有所下降。 市场情报公司Kpler美洲石油分析师Matt Smith表示："强劲的出口、较低的进口量以及日均不到 1700 万 桶的原油及原材料进口量共同导致了美国原油库存的大幅减少。在隐含需求回升的情况下，产品库存的 增幅非常小，这使得这份报告呈现出乐观的态势。" 不过，Smith表示，市场目前仍将注意力集中在以色列和伊朗之间的不断升级的冲突上。这场冲突有可 能导致伊朗(该国是OPEC第三大产油国)的石油出口减少，同时也会对通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油供应 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：与2024年9月我们降息时相比，今年的通胀预期更高，主要由于关税措施导致的通胀 压力上升。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：劳动力市场看起来已经趋于平衡，并非通胀压力的源头。 ...

Geopolitical Analysis - Iran launched a missile attack on Israel's Mossad headquarters on June 17, escalating tensions in the Middle East. Despite this, gold prices did not see a significant increase on June 18, with New York gold futures dropping 0.10% to $3403.4 per ounce, indicating a potential "fatigue effect" among investors regarding geopolitical conflicts [2] - The effectiveness of Iran's missile technology remains questionable, which has weakened the sustainability of safe-haven sentiment in the market [2] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve held a meeting on June 17-18, with expectations to maintain interest rates. However, there is a focus on guidance regarding potential rate cuts later in the year. The U.S. May CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which was below expectations, but the lagging effects of tariff policies may increase future inflationary pressures, leading to a cautious stance from the Fed [2] - On June 17, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.19% to 98.2322, exerting short-term pressure on gold. Nevertheless, the CME "Fed Watch" indicates a 62% probability of a rate cut in September, providing medium to long-term support for gold [2] Gold Technical Analysis - The spot gold price opened at 3386.78 yuan per ounce, showing no clear trend throughout the day and closing at 3388.47, forming a doji candlestick. The daily closing price remains above the moving average, indicating a bullish direction [5] - The hourly price is entangled with the moving average, showing no clear direction, but there is some support at this level. The 15-minute level shows a lack of trend opportunities, with only oscillation at the bottom [5] - Today's trading suggestion is to adopt a high sell-low buy strategy on the 15-minute level, with profit-taking and stop-loss levels set between 3360-3400 [5] Silver Technical Analysis - On Friday, silver opened at 36.301 and broke through to a new high, showing a strong upward trend, closing at 37.116 with a bullish candlestick. The closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish outlook [7] - The hourly level shows a breakout from the central range, with prices above the moving average, confirming a bullish direction. The 15-minute level is currently oscillating at a high position, suggesting further upward movement is likely [7] - Today's trading suggestion is to look for buying opportunities on the 15-minute level, with stop-loss set at 36.700 and profit target at 37.500 [7]