Core Insights - The recent employment data signals a potential weakening in the U.S. labor market, contrary to the prevailing perception of strength [1][3] - Goldman Sachs has revised down the non-farm employment numbers for May and June by a total of 258,000, marking the largest two-month adjustment since 1968 [1][3] - A significant downward revision of 550,000 to 950,000 is anticipated in the upcoming annual benchmark revision, which could reshape market views on labor market strength [1][4] Employment Data Adjustments - The monthly adjustment of 258,000 alters the market's assessment of employment growth for May and June, revealing cracks in the narrative of continuous job expansion [3][4] - The scale of the upcoming benchmark revision is expected to be unprecedented, potentially ten times larger than the previous adjustment of 50,000 in January 2023 [4] Diverging Indicators - Other employment-related indicators, such as the NFIB small business survey, JOLTS job openings data, and the ECI employment cost index, are showing signs of fatigue, indicating a slowdown in hiring and job demand [5] - This inconsistency in data is raising concerns in the market regarding the robustness of the labor market [5] Implications for Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has previously relied on the narrative of a strong labor market to justify maintaining high interest rates; however, if the downward revisions are confirmed, it may necessitate a reassessment of economic resilience [5][6] - Current market expectations suggest a high probability (over 90%) that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September, which could accelerate if the labor market is found to be overestimated [6] Economic Outlook - The lagging effects of consecutive interest rate hikes over the past two years may be starting to manifest in the labor market, potentially leading to more dovish sentiments [7] - The downward revision of non-farm data challenges market consensus and could exert pressure on expectations for a soft landing of the U.S. economy, adding complexity to future Federal Reserve policy decisions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The focus on monetary policy decision-making is increasing due to President Trump's calls for significant interest rate cuts and his influence over the Federal Reserve's leadership [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - Trump is expected to appoint a replacement for Fed Governor Kugler, who is resigning early, potentially influencing the Fed's direction on interest rates [1]. - If Powell resigns at the end of his term in May 2026, Trump will have another opportunity to fill a vacancy, which could lead to a majority of Trump-appointed members on the Fed Board [2][3]. - The appointment of new members could give the new chair significant leverage to pursue their agenda, but local Fed presidents are likely to vote based on macroeconomic conditions rather than political influence [3]. Group 2: Voting Dynamics and Economic Considerations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) requires a majority vote to change interest rates, emphasizing the need for economic rather than political justification for any rate cuts [1][2]. - Recent voting showed a 9-2 decision to maintain the current interest rate, indicating the importance of consensus among committee members [1]. - The upcoming voting members from regional Fed banks may present resistance to politically influenced decisions, focusing instead on economic fundamentals [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Potential Rate Cuts - Predictions indicate that at least two rate cuts may occur in 2025, with the potential for increased support for cuts if labor market conditions worsen [5]. - Concerns about the credibility of the next chair could lead to rising inflation expectations and higher long-term interest rates if consensus is not achieved [5].

Summary of Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Global macroeconomic trends, particularly in the US economy and interest rates - **Key Participants**: Vishwanath Tirupattur, Michael Gapen, Seth Carpenter, Matthew Hornbach, Martin Tobias, James Lord Key Points Economic Indicators - **2Q GDP Performance**: Domestic demand has softened significantly, slowing to a 1.2% pace from 2.7% in the previous year [5] - **Labor Market Trends**: There is a sharp drop-off in labor demand, with downward revisions to May and June employment figures totaling 258,000 [40][7] - **Recession Signals**: A deceleration in nonfarm payrolls is more closely correlated with recession risk than revisions to prior data [11] Central Bank Policies - **Federal Reserve Outlook**: The expectation is that the Fed will maintain its current policy stance, with no rate cuts projected until March 2026 despite rising inflation [40] - **Global Central Banks**: The Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to remain on hold, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may ease policies this year [40] Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - **Market-Implied Rates**: The market is pricing the Fed's policy trough rate to move well below 3.00% [15][40] - **Term Premiums**: Concerns regarding the quality of US economic data and a dovish bias from the FOMC are expected to keep term premiums elevated [40] - **USD Outlook**: Continued weakness in the USD is anticipated, with expectations that the bear market for the currency is not over [40] Treasury Issuance - **Composition of Treasury Issuance**: Bills have been crucial in financing Treasury's borrowing needs, and this trend is expected to continue, leading to a lower weighted average maturity (WAM) of marketable debt [28][31][40] Investment Strategies - **Recommended Positions**: - Long UST 5-year notes and FVU5 futures - Short 10-year TIPS breakevens - Long January 2026 fed funds futures - Stay short USD [40][41] Additional Insights - **Tariff Impact**: Evidence of tariff pass-through is becoming clearer, with prices of goods exposed to tariffs showing sharper increases [40] - **Inflation Concerns**: Inflation remains a significant concern for the Fed, with expectations of price pressures in heavily tariffed goods [40] Conclusion The call highlighted a cooling US economy with significant implications for labor demand and central bank policies. The anticipated trajectory of interest rates and the ongoing weakness of the USD present both risks and opportunities for investors. The focus on Treasury issuance and the impact of tariffs on inflation further complicate the macroeconomic landscape.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly focusing on the implications of the "anti-involution" policy in various industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy**: This policy aims to address issues of low prices and disorderly competition within specific industries, primarily targeting local governments and enterprises. It is not a macroeconomic policy but rather an industry-specific measure [2][3] 2. **Beneficiary Industries**: The industries benefiting from the anti-involution policy can be categorized into three groups: - **Group 1**: Industries with low economic activity but recovering profitability, such as wind power, rebar steel, and cement [2] - **Group 2**: Industries with bottoming fundamentals but strong expectations, including photovoltaic, general equipment, and medical devices [2] - **Group 3**: Industries with high economic activity but lacking real estate policy expectations, such as batteries and medical aesthetics [2] 3. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision**: There is a significant divergence in market opinions regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in September. However, based on economic data, the probability of a rate cut appears substantial [4][11] 4. **Economic Data Insights**: - The second quarter GDP data indicates a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with internal demand weakening [4] - Personal consumption expenditures increased their contribution to GDP from 0.3% in Q1 to approximately 1% in Q2, while private investment stagnated, negatively impacting GDP [5] 5. **Employment Data**: The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant shortfall, with only 73,000 jobs added, indicating a sharp decline in hiring momentum [6] 6. **Labor Market Dynamics**: Job growth is concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, while goods production and federal government employment are major detractors [7] 7. **Labor Market Indicators**: The labor force participation rate has declined, and the unemployment rate has increased, particularly among Black workers. Long-term unemployment has risen, but hourly wages have been adjusted upward [8] 8. **Manufacturing and Inflation**: The manufacturing sector has shown signs of decline, with pressures on demand and employment. Inflationary pressures are expected to be manageable in the near term [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Federal Reserve Chair Powell's Remarks**: Powell noted that the weakening supply-demand dynamics in the labor market pose risks, despite a stable unemployment rate [9] 2. **Market Reactions**: The rapid replenishment of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) could lead to rising overnight financing rates, influencing the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [10]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain stable borrowing costs, continuing a wait-and-see approach since January, as indicated by Chairman Jerome Powell, who noted a "robust" labor market [2] - The July employment report revealed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below the monthly growth needed to keep pace with population growth, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - The labor department revised down previous months' employment growth data, showing that job growth has been weak, with the average monthly growth from May to July being the slowest since 2009, excluding the pandemic recession [4] Group 2 - Internal dissent within the Federal Reserve has emerged, with Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voting against the decision to maintain interest rates, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple governors have opposed a decision [6] - Both dissenting officials cited signs of weakness in the labor market as their main reason for disagreement, downplaying the potential impact of Trump's tariffs on prices [6] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed confidence in the decision made earlier in the week, despite the disappointing employment report, indicating a cautious approach to interpreting individual reports [7]

Group 1 - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler creates a significant vacancy and uncertainty regarding future appointments, particularly concerning the potential successor to current Chair Jerome Powell [1][2] - Kugler, appointed by President Biden in September 2023, was the first Hispanic member of the Federal Reserve Board and had a term set to end on January 31, 2026, but will return to Georgetown University this fall [1] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are widening, with Governors Waller and Bowman voting against maintaining interest rates, marking the first time since December 1993 that two members formally opposed the FOMC's decision [3] Group 2 - The latest non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 115,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 82%, reflecting market concerns about the economy [3] - Following these economic concerns, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced declines of over 1% [3]

2025.08. 02 本文字数：1229，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 库格勒的提前退出可能会动摇目前围绕美联储主席鲍威尔的继任进程的时间表。鲍威尔的任期将于明 年5月结束，特朗普一再威胁要解雇鲍威尔，认为利率应该远低于现在。 封图 | 库格勒 资料图 美联储周五表示，理事库格勒（Adriana Kugler）将辞职提前离开美联储董事会，于8月8日正式生 效。在美国总统特朗普推动降低利率之际，这给他创造了美联储一个重要的职位空缺，也给未来美联 储主席任命带来了些许不确定性。 库格勒于2023年9月被前总统拜登任命为美联储理事会成员。她是第一位西班牙裔美联储理事，在加 入美联储之前，她是乔治城大学的教授，也曾是美国驻世界银行的代表。 美联储在一份声明中表示，库格勒将在其任期结束前离职，任期原定于2026年1月31日结束。离开 美联储后，库格勒将于今年秋天回到乔治城大学担任教授。 美联储有关库格勒离任的声明（来源：美联储官网） 库格勒因个人原因没有参加本周的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，引发了外界关注。 库格勒在辞职信中没有提供辞职的理由。"我很自豪能够以正直的态度、对服务公众的坚定承诺 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced that Governor Adriana Kugler will resign early, effective August 8, creating a significant vacancy amid President Trump's push for lower interest rates [1][2] - Kugler was appointed by former President Biden in September 2023 and was the first Hispanic member of the Federal Reserve Board, previously serving as a professor at Georgetown University and a representative to the World Bank [1] - Kugler's resignation may disrupt the timeline for the succession process of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year, with Trump threatening to dismiss Powell [2] Group 2 - During the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, there was notable dissent within the Fed, with Governors Waller and Bowman voting against the decision to maintain interest rates, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2][3] - The last time there were dissenting votes from Board members was in September of the previous year, indicating that such occurrences are relatively rare [2] - Recent labor market data showed a significant drop in job growth, with July's non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the expected 115,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, anticipates a slowdown in the U.S. economic growth to approximately 1% this year, while the labor market remains robust [1] Economic Outlook - U.S. economic growth is expected to decelerate to around 1% in 2023 [1] - The labor market continues to show strength despite the anticipated slowdown in economic growth [1]

美联储威廉姆斯：在我看来，劳动力市场仍然稳固。 ...