Core Viewpoint - The demand issue has become the most decisive factor affecting the sustained and stable growth of China's economy, with expanding domestic demand being prioritized in economic work for two consecutive years [1] Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - The policies aimed at expanding domestic demand this year have been extensive and forceful, achieving positive effects and playing a crucial role in meeting development goals [1] - There is a notable "strong supply, weak demand" issue in the economy, with significant challenges for enterprise development and pressure on employment and income for the public [1] - The marginal weakening trend of the economy has intensified entering the fourth quarter, necessitating considerable efforts to promote overall economic recovery [1] Group 2: Future Strategies for Demand Expansion - To further stimulate domestic demand, it is essential to effectively release consumption demand potential through both short-term and long-term measures [2] - Structural counter-cyclical consumption stimulus policies should be emphasized, optimizing the support range and structure for commodity consumption while increasing support for service consumption [2] - Implementing effective resident income increase plans and enhancing social security and public service levels for low-income groups are crucial for boosting consumer confidence [2] - Supply-side policies should be strengthened by reducing entry restrictions, optimizing regulatory policies, and enhancing domestic standards and brand development [2] Group 3: Investment and Economic Growth - There remains significant potential for expanding investment, whether in physical assets or human capital, which can continue to drive growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - A suitable institutional and policy environment is necessary to support investment, which can be a vital force for growth if the relevant frameworks are in place [2] - China's economic development advantages are unique and substantial, and adhering to the central economic work meeting's requirements can further promote economic recovery and lay a solid foundation for achieving the 2035 goals [2]

央视网消息（新闻联播）：记者从财政部了解到，2026年，我国将连续第二年实施更加积极的财政政 策，着力扩内需、优结构、增动能、惠民生。将扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度，优化政府债券 工具组合，提高转移支付资金效能，持续优化支出结构，加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 2026年，更加积极的财政政策将坚持内需主导，支持建设强大国内市场，大力提振消费，深入实施提振 消费专项行动，继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新，调整优化补贴范围和标准。积极扩大有效投资，加 大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入。同时，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。 此外，2026年，更加积极的财政政策还将支持科技创新和产业创新深度融合，推进城乡融合和区域联 动，进一步加强民生保障，推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型等，增强经济发展后劲和百姓获得感。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Expanding domestic demand is essential for maintaining long-term economic health in China and meeting the growing needs of the population for a better life. The shift from high-speed to medium-high-speed growth necessitates increasing the consumption rate and addressing consumption shortfalls through industrial innovation and high-value-added industries, particularly in high-tech sectors like artificial intelligence [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - China's economy faces long-term pressures from an aging population, with the consumer rate at approximately 39.6% in 2023, significantly lower than developed countries (50%-70%) and the global average for middle-income countries (55%) [1]. - The traditional approach of income distribution adjustment is limited, necessitating a focus on industrial innovation to create new consumption demand and enhance overall economic growth [1][2]. Group 2: Industrial Innovation and Consumption - Developing high-value and high-tech industries is crucial for expanding economic growth during the medium-high-speed growth phase. Historical examples from the U.S. and Japan illustrate how technological advancements in sectors like information technology and healthcare have led to significant increases in service consumption [2]. - Artificial intelligence is identified as a key driver for consumption growth, enhancing production efficiency and creating high-income jobs, particularly in sectors like smart manufacturing and new energy vehicles [3]. Group 3: Synergy Between Technology and Consumption - The integration of artificial intelligence in consumer sectors is transforming traditional products into smarter, higher-end offerings, while also tailoring services to meet consumer needs. For instance, online retail sales are projected to account for 26.8% of total retail sales by 2024, with AI systems improving conversion rates by over 40% [4]. - The growth in high-tech industries has led to an average annual real income growth of 6.1% for residents from 2013 to 2024, with incomes in high-tech sectors growing faster than in traditional industries, highlighting the positive impact of industrial innovation on income distribution [4]. Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - The pathway of "industrial policy—developing domestic demand—expanding growth—income distribution—promoting consumption" has shown significant advantages over mere income distribution adjustments, creating new value through technological innovation and industrial upgrades [5]. - Initiatives like the trade-in policy for consumer goods and the promotion of AI in consumption are fostering a positive interaction between policy guidance, industrial upgrades, and consumption expansion, benefiting both industry and consumer welfare [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - China is at a critical juncture for industrial and consumption upgrades, with a vast market of 1.4 billion people and a growing middle-income group providing ample opportunities for industrial innovation [5]. - Focusing on key sectors such as artificial intelligence, high-end equipment, and biomedicine, while optimizing income distribution, is essential for activating consumption potential and ensuring domestic demand becomes a primary driver of economic growth [5][6].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - HSBC forecasts global economic growth to remain stable in 2026, with a slowdown in trade export growth, while strong investment in artificial intelligence will support investment and trade growth in the next two years [1] - In Asia, export growth is expected to slow but will still outperform the global average [1] - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates further in 2026, maintaining the current target range [1] Group 2: China's Economic Performance - HSBC's Chief Economist for Greater China, Liu Jing, anticipates that China will achieve a 5% economic growth target for 2025, supported by a series of easing policies and resilient exports [1] - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on structural transformation and balanced trade, with domestic demand becoming the main driver of growth [1] - Expanding domestic demand will be a key policy focus in 2026, crucial for achieving high-quality economic development [1] Group 3: Investment Trends - Short-term "trade-in" policies are expected to continue, but long-term growth will hinge on service consumption [2] - Fixed asset investment is projected to recover, particularly in infrastructure, with a strong rebound anticipated in early 2026 [2] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to alleviate funding issues for local governments, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [2] Group 4: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The central economic work conference suggests maintaining a necessary fiscal deficit, with a target deficit rate of around 4% for 2026 [3] - Local government special bonds and special treasury bonds are expected to be issued at levels similar to 2025 to support consumption and major project investments [3] - HSBC anticipates a potential 20 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026 [3] Group 5: Supply Chain and Trade - Amid rising global trade protectionism and supply chain security concerns, external demand uncertainties are expected to persist [4] - China aims to expand high-level openness and international cooperation to address these challenges [4] - The innovation-driven growth model in China is accelerating, with significant advancements in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, enhancing China's attractiveness for foreign investment [4]

Core Viewpoint - Major companies in China, including JD.com and ByteDance, are significantly increasing employee salaries and bonuses, reflecting a broader trend aimed at boosting consumer spending and addressing income inequality in the economy [6][7][20]. Group 1: Salary Increases and Bonuses - JD.com announced that 92% of its employees will receive full or exceeding year-end bonuses, with total bonus investment increasing by over 70% year-on-year for 2025 [6][11]. - ByteDance revealed a 35% increase in bonus investment and a 1.5 times increase in salary adjustment investment for 2025, aiming to attract and retain talent [7][12]. - Other major companies like BYD and CATL are also raising salaries, with CATL increasing basic wages for frontline workers by 150 yuan starting January 1, 2026 [16][19]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Economic Context - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income, indicating a shift towards implementing concrete measures rather than just proposals [21][22]. - The increase in salaries by major companies is seen as a direct method to enhance consumer spending power, which is crucial for driving domestic demand [20][23]. - The overall trend of salary increases across various sectors, including technology, manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals, signals a collective effort to improve employee compensation and stimulate economic growth [19][24].

Group 1: Economic Policy Adjustments - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference has shifted its focus from "nine tasks" in 2024 to "eight tasks," emphasizing the importance of domestic demand as the primary driver of economic growth[9] - The task of expanding domestic demand has been elevated to the top priority, with a focus on "building a strong domestic market" and implementing specific actions to boost consumption and income[10] - The urgency of risk prevention has decreased, with the task of "preventing and resolving key area risks" moving from fifth to eighth place, indicating progress in areas like debt replacement and real estate[9] Group 2: Investment and Consumption Strategies - The conference emphasizes the integration of investment in both physical assets and human capital, with a focus on enhancing income for all urban and rural residents through specific plans[10] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for expanding domestic demand, with the service sector showing higher multiplier effects and lower risks compared to traditional goods consumption[25] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by encouraging the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing, which is expected to alleviate liquidity pressures on real estate companies[38] Group 3: Financial and Monetary Policies - The fiscal policy will maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, total debt, and expenditure, focusing on optimizing the expenditure structure for greater policy effectiveness[15] - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with an emphasis on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, while ensuring liquidity remains ample[21] - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 33.4 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of the year, reflecting a 13.6% year-on-year increase, indicating strong financial support for the real economy[27] Group 4: Long-term Economic Outlook and Risks - The macroeconomic outlook remains positive, with structural reforms expected to deepen, focusing on quality improvement and effective growth[60] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and effectiveness, external economic pressures, and market and credit risks that could impact domestic asset prices[61]

Group 1 - The core issue affecting China's economic growth is the demand problem, which has been prioritized in economic work for two consecutive years [2] - The overall economic performance in China shows resilience and stability, but the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand remains a significant challenge [2] - The main contradiction in economic operation is shifting from the supply side to the demand side, necessitating a focus on resolving demand issues for sustainable economic development [2] Group 2 - The acceleration of domestic demand expansion policies has led to positive outcomes, but consumption demand is constrained by both short-term fluctuations and long-term structural factors [3] - Short-term measures should include strong stimulus policies to break negative cycles, while long-term strategies must address deep-rooted issues to ensure stable growth [3] - The shift in consumer behavior from goods to services highlights the need for increased support in service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, and elder care [3] Group 3 - Investment remains crucial alongside consumption, as effective investment is necessary to meet consumption demands and expand consumption space [4] - There is significant potential for effective investment, particularly in urban development and addressing social welfare gaps [4] - The decline in private and foreign investment underscores the need for policy innovation and improved business environments to boost investor confidence [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between expanding domestic demand and opening up to the outside world is crucial for China's economic response to various risks and challenges, ensuring a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and achieving high-quality development [1] Group 1: Importance of Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is the fundamental driving force for China's economic development, with the central economic work conference prioritizing "domestic demand as the mainstay, building a strong domestic market" as a key task for 2026, highlighting the urgency of expanding domestic demand [1] - A strong and stable domestic demand market provides a "strategic depth" for expanding openness, as substantial domestic consumption and investment can absorb international quality goods and services, smoothing economic fluctuations and enhancing China's voice in the international economic system [1] Group 2: Synergy Between Domestic Demand and Openness - Expanding domestic demand and opening up are not contradictory; rather, they are mutually reinforcing and form an organic unity that drives sustainable economic development [2] - A smoother domestic circulation creates a gravitational field for global resources, facilitating the construction of a new development pattern that promotes both domestic and international dual circulation [2] - Historical growth periods in China's economy have coincided with coordinated expansion of domestic demand and openness, indicating that this synergy is both a historical lesson and a current necessity [2] Group 3: Balancing Demand and Supply - Correctly handling the relationship between expanding domestic demand and opening up requires achieving a higher-level dynamic balance where demand drives supply and supply creates demand [3] - Achieving this balance is challenging, as historical lessons remind that expanding domestic demand should adhere to market-oriented reforms, breaking industry monopolies and local protectionism to ensure growth is based on efficiency and innovation [3] - When expanding openness, it is essential to coordinate development and security within a robust risk prevention system to ensure the stability and sustainability of the Chinese economy [3]

行情上，上周五三大指数再度全线收红，沪指迎8连阳，做多情绪超预期升温。量能中枢修复到2万亿， 在宏观不确定性落地后，3800点有资金面的保护信号，上周市场对人民币汇率破7和宽基的冲量流入都 给了正面反馈。周末消息偏中性，国内全国财政工作会议指出扩大财政支出盘子，产业上还是聚焦在商 业航天和机器人上。结构上，上周除了商业航天超预期强势外，多数板块尤其是前期低位科技题材都有 机会。操作上，保持好仓位，跟随趋势，大概率节后可能有震荡低吸机会。观点仅供参考，投资有风 险，入市需谨慎。 机构观点方面，申万宏源认为，短期A股连续上涨，体现出流动性驱动的特征。部分投资者预期中证 A500ETF年底冲量，年初可能有所反复，市场可能随之反复。但我们认为春季行情有利条件不变：首 先，股市流动性宽松：私募逢低有集中申购，保险开门红，人民币汇率升值利好股市流动性；其次，支 撑风险偏好的时间窗口连续，2月春节、3月两会、4月特朗普可能访华。2026年风格节奏判断：春季科 技和顺周期只有Alpha机会，主题活跃，对应小盘成长占优。后续，2026年二季度磨底阶段，科技和先 进制造有基本面Alpha逻辑方向可能先于牛市启动。2026年下半年 ...

会议指出，明年财政将促进居民就业增收，支持办好人民满意的教育，提高医疗卫生服务保障水平，完 善社会保障体系，在满足民生需求中拓展发展空间。明年要坚持稳扎稳打与大胆探索相结合，深化财税 体制改革。坚持管好资产与用好资产相结合，推动健全国有资产管理体系。坚持精准发现问题与有效解 决问题相结合，不断加强财会监督工作。 据新华社北京12月28日电 大力提振消费，深入实施提振消费专项行动，继续安排资金支持消费品以旧 换新；积极扩大有效投资，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入；加快推进全国统一大市 场建设，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策……12月27日至28日，在北京举行的全国财政工作会议透露了明 年财政支持扩大内需的部署安排。 会议明确，明年财政工作的六方面重点任务：坚持内需主导，支持建设强大国内市场；支持科技创新和 产业创新深度融合，加快培育壮大新动能；推进城乡融合和区域联动，拓展发展空间；进一步强化保基 本、兜底线，切实加强民生保障；推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型，加快建设美丽中国；加强国际财经 交流合作，支持扩大高水平对外开放。 ...