Group 1 - The A-share market showed positive performance on July 18, with the Consumer ETF (159928) rising nearly 1% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 260 million yuan, marking a net inflow of over 85 million yuan over the past four days [1][3] - The Consumer ETF (159928) has a total scale exceeding 12.2 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] - Key stocks within the Consumer ETF saw gains, including Luzhou Laojiao and Xin Nuo Wei rising over 3%, Shanxi Fenjiu over 2%, and Guizhou Moutai and Muyuan Foods over 1% [3] Group 2 - The external environment for the food delivery market is evolving, with a significant increase in competition among major players, leading to a surge in daily orders [8] - The online food delivery market has expanded rapidly, with online dining accounting for nearly 25% of total dining consumption, while dining revenue constitutes about 11.2% of total retail sales [5] - The impact of delivery subsidies is expected to drive a substantial increase in overall dining revenue, with projections indicating a 48.6% year-on-year growth in food delivery revenue for July [11]

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the collaboration between Focus Media and Alipay, introducing a new advertising and consumer engagement method in elevators, allowing users to receive cash red envelopes, platform coupons, or brand discount coupons by simply tapping their phones on a designated device [1][3][5] - The initiative targets 400 million urban consumers, aiming to activate consumer spending during idle time while waiting for elevators [1][5] - The process to claim benefits is simplified into three steps: unlocking the phone, tapping it near the blue ring, and receiving the rewards directly into the Alipay wallet [2][4] Group 2 - The types of benefits include cash red envelopes with no usage restrictions, platform coupons for various categories like supermarkets and dining, and brand-specific discount coupons that can be used both online and offline [4] - The project is expected to inject new vitality into the consumer economy, transforming elevator advertising from passive exposure to active participation, aligning with national policies to stimulate consumption [5] - The technology used ensures that personal information remains secure, as the interaction only triggers coupon collection without linking to sensitive data like ID numbers or bank details [5]

Economic Overview - Beijing's GDP grew by 5.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2023, reaching 25,029.2 billion yuan [2][3] - The contribution rate of the information transmission, software, and IT services, financial, and industrial sectors to economic growth was 87.0%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area increased by 5.4%, with pure commodity residential sales up by 33.8% [1][5] - The area of second-hand residential transactions saw a 22% increase, while transaction volume rose by 18.6% [1][5] - Real estate development investment decreased by 7.5%, and the total construction area fell by 8.0% [3][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 14.1%, with equipment purchase investment surging by 99.0%, accounting for 28.2% of total fixed asset investment [2][3] - High-tech industry investment remained active, increasing by 72.9%, particularly in information services, automotive manufacturing, and electronics [3][4] Consumer Market - Total market consumption in Beijing grew by 0.9%, while consumer prices fell by 0.3% [3][4] - Service consumption accounted for nearly 60% of total household spending, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption [4] Employment and Income - The urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1% [1][2] - Per capita disposable income reached 45,144 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a real increase of 5.1% after adjusting for price factors [1][2]

Economic Growth and Demand - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, showing resilience despite a complex internal and external environment [2] - Investment growth rate decreased from 4.2% in Q1 to 2.8% in H1, below last year's annual growth rate of 3.2% [2] - Consumer spending increased from 4.6% to 5% year-on-year, but June's growth of 4.8% was a decline from May [2] Price Levels and Market Dynamics - June's CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, significantly below the 2% annual target, while PPI's decline expanded from -2.2% to -3.6% [3] - The persistent low price levels indicate a significant supply-demand imbalance, leading to reduced confidence among businesses and consumers [3][4] - Market mechanisms are exacerbating demand contraction, as low prices lead to cautious investment and consumption behaviors [3][4] Investment Trends - Investment growth in Q2 showed a notable decline, influenced by falling market prices and cautious corporate outlooks [7] - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in H1, with a 9.9% decline in Q1, reflecting weak demand and market sentiment [7][8] - The manufacturing sector's investment growth decreased due to negative expectations regarding future sales and profitability [7] Government Role and Policy Recommendations - The government is urged to increase public investment to counteract demand contraction and stimulate economic growth [9][11] - There is a need for a proactive macroeconomic policy to address the prolonged demand contraction and its underlying issues [9][10] - The government has the capacity to enhance public goods and services, which can effectively stimulate demand and support economic recovery [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, with a manageable pressure to meet the annual economic target, as stated by Zhang Jun, Chief Economist at China Galaxy Securities [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Predictions - Several international institutions have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, with Morgan Stanley and Barclays predicting nearly 5% growth, and ANZ forecasting 5.1% [1] - Domestic demand has become the main engine of economic growth, contributing 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [4] Group 2: Advantages of China's Economy - China possesses four major advantages that drive its endogenous economic growth: a super-large market, a complete industrial system, technological innovation and talent dividends, and policy stability [2][3] - The super-large market advantage is supported by a consumption base of 1.4 billion people, which helps buffer external demand fluctuations [3] - The complete industrial system advantage allows for a highly coordinated supply chain, reducing production costs and enhancing risk resilience [3] - The technological innovation and talent advantage is characterized by a large pool of research talent and significant R&D investment, fostering breakthroughs in both basic and applied research [3] - Policy stability and institutional advantages enable the government to implement consistent policies that support economic transformation and structural reforms [3] Group 3: Consumption Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods (referred to as "社零") have become a key indicator of consumption trends, reflecting the shift towards a consumption-driven growth model [5] - In the first half of the year, retail sales grew by 5.0%, with significant growth in upgraded consumption categories such as home appliances and sports goods [5] - Service retail sales increased by 5.3%, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards services and quality [5] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Future policy goals should focus on promoting reasonable price recovery, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing macroeconomic policy adjustments [8] - Recommendations include maintaining stability in policies like "old-for-new" exchanges, increasing fiscal tools, and deepening supply-side structural reforms [8]

今年上半年，最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率达52%，较去年全年提高了7.5个百分点。这是一揽子 增量政策持续显效的结果，也是超大规模国内市场的潜力所在。下半年，扩大内需、提振消费宜乘势而 上，推动各类可感可及举措早出尽出。上半年我国GDP同比增长5.3%，含金量十足。取得可喜成绩的 同时，也应保持一份冷静——社会消费品零售总额增速、固定资产投资增速进入6月后有所放缓。此 外，去年三季度以来，中央加力支持"两新"政策取得显著成效，但也为今年下半年的消费增长带来高基 数挑战。因此，扩内需的各项政策举措还需持续用力。（人民财讯） ...

优化供给并不能仅靠市场之力，尤其是在服务消费领域，政府部门还需持续推动降低市场准入门槛、降 低各类制度性交易成本，让企业真正放开手脚去发掘市场机遇；在需求端，同样需要政府尽快出手，加 快落实好城乡居民增收、建立实施育儿补贴制度、加大对养老产业发展支持等早有提及的重点举措。 文章指出，下半年，扩大内需、提振消费宜乘势而上，推动各类可感可及举措早出尽出。社会消费品零 售总额增速、固定资产投资增速进入6月后有所放缓。此外，去年三季度以来，中央加力支持"两新"政 策取得显著成效，但也为今年下半年的消费增长带来高基数挑战。因此，扩内需的各项政策举措还需持 续用力。 ...

今年以来，中央政府层面已多次部署做强国内大循环工作：7月16日召开的国务院常务会议明确，研究 做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作；5月15日国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会；"大力提振消 费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"，也是2025年政府工作报告提出的重点任务。"当前以促消费 为核心，部署壮大内循环，有很强的迫切性和必要性。这也符合经济增长动能转换的大方向。"东方金 诚首席宏观分析师王青说。中国财政学会绩效专委会副主任委员张依群表示，把做强国内大循环摆在更 加突出的位置，积极应对外部环境的不确定性，以消费带动投资，促进产业结构转型和产业技术升级， 推动经济转型和高质量发展。同时，激发内需消费动能，补足民生领域短板，提升居民生活水平，用大 循环推动消费经济良性循环。(上海证券报) ...

本报记者 张芗逸 7月16日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。会议指出，做强国内 大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 今年以来，我国将做强国内大循环摆在更加重要的位置，综合施策扩大内需、促进生产、畅通循环，以中国经济的稳定性 和确定性来应对外部的不确定性。 内需潜力释放 今年以来，我国加大力度实施更加积极的宏观政策，以消费品以旧换新、工业企业设备更新等举措为抓手，做强国内大循 环。 以消费品以旧换新为例，据国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任李超介绍，消费品以旧换新方面，超长期特别国债资金支持 力度为3000亿元，前2批共1620亿元资金已按计划分别于1月、4月下达。 从政策成效来看，国家发展改革委数据显示，今年以来以旧换新相关商品销售额超过1.4万亿元。 随着政策持续显效，发挥稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生作用，内需成为上半年经济增长的主动力。国家统计局最新数 据显示，上半年内需对GDP增长的贡献率为68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%。 中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对《证券日报》记者表示，此次会议将做强国内大循环明确定位为"推动经济行稳致远的战 略之举"，凸显 ...

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing economic growth and improving expectations in the second half of the year, recognizing both external uncertainties and domestic challenges [2] - It was noted that the basic trend of economic recovery and long-term growth remains unchanged, with positive factors for steady economic growth continuously accumulating [2] - The meeting called for confidence and efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to ensure the completion of annual goals and the successful conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 2 - The focus is on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand comprehensively, including optimizing policies for replacing old consumer goods and promoting high-end consumption [3] - There is a push for infrastructure construction in key areas such as transportation, water conservancy, energy, and digital information to support early production and effectiveness of industrial projects [3] - The meeting highlighted the need to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, encouraging enterprises to explore diverse markets and enhance the resilience and vitality of the industrial supply chain [3] Group 3 - The meeting included video connections to various cities to hear reports on the province's economic performance in the first half of the year, with contributions from departments such as the Provincial Industry and Information Technology Department and the Provincial Commerce Department [4]