Core Insights - The article discusses the need for a long-term mechanism to stimulate consumption, shifting from subsidy-driven approaches to institutional innovation [8] - It highlights the importance of reducing burdens and increasing income for residents to boost marginal consumption tendencies [8] Group 1: Deep Dive Topics - The article emphasizes the transition from subsidies to institutional innovations as a means to create a sustainable consumption stimulus mechanism [8] - It suggests that continuous efforts to reduce financial burdens and enhance income for residents are fundamental to improving consumption [8] Group 2: Hot Topics - The article raises concerns about the potential rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.6%, analyzing the implications of tariffs and the associated risks of economic downturns [11] - It discusses the inflationary effects of tariffs and the upward risks of employment weakening, indicating a need for vigilance in economic policy [11] Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article reports on the Senate's passage of the "Beautiful Act," which is expected to lead to a new round of fiscal easing in the U.S. [13] - It provides a detailed breakdown of the fiscal implications of the act, including various tax cuts and their projected impacts on the budget [14] Group 4: Economic Policy Insights - The second quarter monetary policy committee meeting highlighted the need for continued support for the real estate market and key sectors [15] - The meeting concluded that macroeconomic adjustments should focus on maintaining stable economic growth and reasonable price levels, with an emphasis on flexible monetary policy [15] Group 5: Economic Indicators - The June PMI data indicates a recovery in manufacturing sentiment, although corporate expectations have declined [17] - The article suggests that while the overall economic environment shows improvement, attention should be paid to changes in microeconomic expectations [17] Group 6: International Trade Developments - The article notes that the U.S. has officially signed a trade agreement with China, which may have significant implications for international trade dynamics [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption" as a key macroeconomic policy in China, especially under the dual challenges of stabilizing growth and external pressures. It advocates for a combination of short-term stimulus measures and long-term structural reforms to enhance consumer capacity and confidence [1][2]. Summary by Sections Historical Consumption Tools - China's past consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies and indirect support measures. Direct subsidies include rural subsidies, trade-in subsidies, and consumption vouchers, while indirect measures involve tax reductions and fee exemptions [3]. - Significant past initiatives include the "home appliance and vehicle going to the countryside" policies from 2007 to 2012, and the promotion of electric vehicle consumption through tax exemptions since 2018 [3][4]. Effectiveness of Consumption Promotion - The first round of home appliance and vehicle policies yielded substantial results, with a total subsidy of 76.5 billion yuan leading to sales of 659.76 billion yuan, achieving a fiscal multiplier of 8.6. Sales of home appliances and vehicles saw significant year-on-year increases during this period [6][7]. - The current "trade-in" policy has shown remarkable effects, with sales of home appliances increasing by 39% year-on-year in December 2024, driven by enhanced fiscal support and expanded subsidy coverage [9]. Service Consumption Recovery - Service consumption still has considerable room for recovery compared to goods consumption, with a notable gap from pre-2019 levels. The article suggests that expanding consumption policies to include services could accelerate this recovery [10]. - Improving residents' leisure time through optimized holiday policies and encouraging paid leave can further stimulate service consumption [10]. Long-term Mechanisms for Consumption - To sustain consumption recovery, it is essential to focus on reducing burdens and increasing income for residents. Current measures include lowering mortgage rates and providing rental subsidies for new residents and young people [11]. - Structural reforms in income distribution and social security systems are crucial for long-term consumption growth. For instance, increasing pension levels and implementing child-rearing subsidies could significantly enhance consumer spending capacity [11][12]. Targeted Support for Key Demographics - The article highlights the need for targeted support for vulnerable groups, particularly the elderly and children, to stimulate consumption in essential categories such as food and healthcare [12]. - A comprehensive analysis of consumption policies indicates that effective consumption stimulation requires a combination of short-term effectiveness and long-term structural mechanisms, focusing on collaborative promotion of goods and services [13].

当实现短期目标存在压力时，政策会加码；反之，政策会更加侧重于长期目标 。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 去年以来，政策的核心逻辑始终围绕平衡短期目标和长期目标展开 。短期目标是稳增长、稳预期，最 直接的目标是实现5%的经济增速。长期目标是推动改革、加快转型，通过科技创新和市场化改革提高 经济要素的配置效率，打开经济潜在增长空间。去年"9.24"以来，短期目标的紧迫性明显上升，但长 期目标的重要性依然不容忽视。当实现短期目标存在压力时，政策通常会加码；反之，政策会更加侧重 于长期目标。 从当前内外部环境看，实现短期目标的压力较小 。外交方面，中美之间的不确定性从日内瓦协议到伦 敦高会谈以来持续减弱；中国与非美特别是周边国家外交取得积极进展。国内方面，上半年消费表现亮 眼，5月社零同比增长6.4%，创2024年以来新高；出口仍有韧性，5月出口同比增长4.8%；二季度经 济增速有望延续一季度5.4%的表现，全年实现5%增长目标的压力不大。 近期，消费、地产、改革、科技等领域的政策声音都传递出由短期刺激转向长期支持的信号。 （一）消费："以旧换新"强调节奏"平稳有序"，整治套补骗补 6月以来，各地陆续暂停国补，原 ...

今年以来，扩内需促消费政策密集出台，消费品以旧换新加力扩围，进一步激发了市场活力。今年前4 个月，我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.7%，比一季度加快0.1个百分点。从数据看，提振消费仍需 进一步挖潜提质，除了补贴政策带来的刺激效应和供给创新的不断加持，仍需持续完善促消费长效机 制。 消费是驱动经济增长的主要动力，是激发经济活力的关键引擎。当前，持续完善促消费长效机制，需要 瞄准相关领域痛点堵点，精准发力，久久为功。 完善考核评价激励机制，提高地方政府促消费积极性。相较于投资，花在促消费方面的资金，不但短期 内难以产生明显回报，反而容易挤压刚性支出。消费对经济增长的促进作用往往延迟反映在统计口径 中，尤其在线上消费分布于全国的情况下，地方政府很难从消费中直接获得税收等收益。要用好考 核"指挥棒"，建立完善科学合理的考核指标体系，引导地方政府和领导干部树立以促消费为导向的政绩 观，加大消费基础设施投入，优化消费环境，增强补贴力度，压实地方政府促消费责任。 实施包容审慎监管，推动新型消费业态稳步成长。在市场经济中，必要的监管不能缺少，但监管不能过 度。包容审慎的监管通过减少对经营主体的干预，释放执法温度和善意，营 ...