美联储威廉姆斯：今年经济将以较慢的速度增长，就业市场将保持稳健。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the labor market appears to remain stable, suggesting resilience in employment conditions [1] - Immigration restrictions may become a medium-term obstacle to economic growth, highlighting potential challenges for the labor market and overall economic expansion [1]

英国央行行长贝利：贸易关税对通胀的影响比对经济增长的影响更为模糊。 ...

克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周二表示，当前利率的限制性仅为"温和"，官员们可能会在一段时间内将借贷 成本维持在稳定水平。 哈马克表示，尽管近期取得了进展，但在达到通胀目标方面，美联储仍有"一段距离要走"。她还说，官 方数据是滞后的，可能无法完全捕捉当前的动态，包括近期油价上涨可能助推通胀预期的风险。 "很有可能的情况是，在委员会启动非常温和的降息以使政策回归中性之前，政策将在相当长的一段时 间内保持不变，"哈马克在为伦敦一场会议准备的讲稿中说。 美联储官员本月已连续第四次会议维持利率不变，以便给自己更多时间来观察美国总统特朗普的关税及 其他政策将如何影响通胀和增长。中东的紧张局势也增加了全球经济的风险。 在6月会议上发布的最新预测显示，根据中位数预测，美联储决策者们仍然预计今年会有两次降息。但 预测也显示出一些分歧，有七名官员预计今年根本不会降息。 保持观察 哈马克表示，经济的韧性表明，维持利率稳定的风险很低。她说，她没有看到经济出现值得降息的疲 软，但"对这种可能性保持警惕。" 这位克利夫兰联储主席还说，利率可能已经接近中性水平，即美联储既不刺激也不减缓经济的水平。 自那次会议以来发表讲话的官员们也对任何行动的时 ...

Group 1: Economic Support Measures - The Guangdong Provincial Government has issued a work plan to promote sustained economic improvement and strengthen the domestic circulation of the economy, focusing on targeted support for foreign trade enterprises and addressing their operational challenges [1][3] - The plan includes measures to stabilize employment, particularly for key groups, by enhancing policy support, training, and risk assessment to ensure job stability and expand employment opportunities [3][4] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Stimulus - The work plan aims to boost consumption through special actions, encouraging large-scale consumption upgrades and supporting first-time homebuyers and families with multiple children through subsidies and policy adjustments [4][5] - It emphasizes effective investment expansion by leveraging national policies and funds, accelerating project implementation, and stimulating private investment through various financial mechanisms [5][6] Group 3: Innovation and Resource Allocation - The plan highlights the importance of innovation, proposing initiatives to enhance technological and industrial innovation, including support for high-growth sectors and the establishment of new economic growth points [6][7] - It also focuses on improving the efficient allocation of resources, promoting the integration into the national market, and enhancing the efficiency of talent, capital, and technology allocation [7][8] Group 4: Safety and Risk Management - The work plan stresses the need for economic safety, emphasizing risk assessment and prevention in sectors like real estate and finance, while ensuring the security of food, energy, and supply chains [7][8] - It outlines a timeline for policy implementation, aiming for significant results by the third quarter of 2025, with a comprehensive policy framework to support high-quality economic development [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if tariffs do not lead to inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve may consider resuming interest rate cuts [1][2] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted that recent inflation data shows no significant inflationary pressure, which was unexpected [1] - There is a phenomenon of "burden sharing" in some industries, where tariff costs are distributed among suppliers, producers, and consumers [1] Group 2 - There is a divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with some supporting cuts as early as July if inflation remains controlled [2] - The June dot plot reflects the highest level of disagreement among Fed officials in a decade regarding the balance between inflation control and economic growth [2] - The uncertainty regarding the interest rate path for 2025, as measured by the difference between the maximum and minimum values in the dot plot, is not unprecedented and is even lower than the same period last year [2]

泰国议会批准规模达1154亿泰铢的支出计划，旨在支持经济增长。 ...

金十数据6月23日讯，美联储理事鲍曼表示："如果通胀压力得到控制，我将支持在下次会议上尽快降低 政策利率，以使其更接近中性水平并维持健康的劳动力市场。"鲍曼去年一直非常关注通胀风险。她 说，由于预计今年经济将出现更多闲置产能，她认为关税带来的价格上涨将是"小幅且一次性"的。她将 劳动力市场描述为坚实且预计接近充分就业的水平。但她亦援引了脆弱性的证据，包括劳动力市场活力 减弱、经济增长放缓和就业增长的狭隘集中，因此认为美联储在未来的决策中应"更加重视就业目标所 面临的下行风险"。这是鲍曼自今年春季被特朗普提名并经参议院确认出任美联储监管副主席以来，首 次就经济前景发表实质性评论。 美联储理事鲍曼暗示：或会支持7月降息 ...

Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have become a focal point for the market, despite the expectation that geopolitical risks would increase demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The market remains cautious, partly due to the hawkish stance maintained by Federal Reserve officials [1] - If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could exceed $100, leading to heightened fear and panic among investors [1] Currency Volatility - The volatility of the USD/JPY pair is the highest across all time frames, particularly with a one-month volatility rate of -0.028 [2] - The USD/JPY pair rose to 147.39 yen following the U.S. attack on Iran, with traders holding $12.5 billion in yen long positions [2] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 2.4% against the dollar since the Israeli missile strikes on Iranian targets began [2] Impact on Japan's Economy - Japan's heavy reliance on imported oil makes it vulnerable to rising oil prices, which threaten its trade balance and weaken the yen's attractiveness [3] - The spike in oil prices has worsened Japan's trade conditions, further diminishing its economic competitiveness [3] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's natural gas prices are highly correlated with the euro exchange rate, with rising gas prices likely to weaken the euro and reduce the current account surplus [5] - Natural gas prices have surged from approximately $2.8 to over $4 since late April, indicating a potential further shrinkage of the Eurozone's surplus [6] - The Eurozone's economic growth exceeded expectations at the beginning of the year, but lost momentum in April due to U.S. tariff policies [6] Swiss Franc and Safe-Haven Demand - The Swiss franc is supported by safe-haven demand and signals from the Swiss National Bank indicating no inclination to lower interest rates further [7] - The current USD/CHF pair is trading within a range established over the past week, with market participants remaining cautious about directional choices [7] UK Economic Activity - The UK's PMI data exceeded expectations, yet the GBP/USD exchange rate fell by 0.1% to $1.3430, indicating a muted market reaction [8] - Manufacturing activity in the UK has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, although the contraction rate is the smallest since January [8] - The June services PMI rose from 50.9 to 51.3, while the manufacturing PMI improved from 46.4 to 47.7, suggesting a slight recovery despite ongoing challenges [8]

美联储决策者们的不确定性在上周美联储最新的"点阵图"中已显而易见，该图表概述了未来的利率走 向。尽管有八名官员认为2025年仍将有两次降息，但有七名官员预计根本不会降息——这一数字高于此 前持此看法的四名官员。 随着美联储官员们为7月的下一次会议做准备，并衡量特朗普的贸易、税收和移民政策对通胀及经济增 长路径的影响，特朗普上周末对伊朗三个核设施的打击，又为这些讨论注入了新一层未知数。 一些美联储观察人士担心，油价的持续上涨将加剧特朗普关税已在美国国内造成的通胀混乱。 摩根大通的分析师曾警告称，一场持久的冲突以及关键的霍尔木兹海峡可能被关闭，或将油价推高至每 桶120美元，从而将美国通胀率推回到5%左右。 播客：伊朗遇袭难倒美联储 下载mp3 美联储本已在努力应对未来货币政策路径的诸多不确定性，而美国总统特朗普上周末对伊朗核设施的打 击，可能会让这条路径在短期内变得更加扑朔迷离。 在特朗普决定发动袭击前的几天里，美联储内部一位有影响力的理事确实更响亮地支持降息，他驳斥了 关于特朗普关税可能导致长期通胀的担忧。 另一方面，华尔街也流传着一种观点，认为这场冲突可能促使美联储比预期更早地降息。 牛津经济研究院首席美国 ...