Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) showed improvements in September, with the core CPI's year-on-year growth rate expanding for the fifth consecutive month, signaling a recovery in price levels [1][2] - In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - The rise in industrial consumer goods prices was a significant factor contributing to the expansion of the core CPI's year-on-year growth, with industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) increasing by 1.8% year-on-year [1] - Notable price increases were observed in gold and platinum jewelry, which rose by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively, along with household appliances and communication tools, which saw increases of 5.5%, 3.2%, and 1.5% [1] - Analysts predict that the CPI may achieve a year-on-year increase in the coming months, while the PPI is expected to continue improving, albeit with limited potential [2] Group 3 - The need for further comprehensive measures to stabilize prices has been emphasized, including the implementation of policies to expand service consumption and the relaxation of consumption restrictions by the government and social groups [3] - There is potential for significant progress in advancing key projects that can contribute to economic stability [3]

Group 1 - The meeting highlighted that China's economy has shown resilience and vitality despite facing challenges, with new positive developments emerging [2] - Experts and entrepreneurs provided suggestions for better implementation of macro policies and addressing current issues [2] - Li Qiang emphasized the importance of a broader perspective in understanding the current economic situation, particularly in relation to the five-year plan and the long-term trends of economic development [2][3] Group 2 - Li Qiang called for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments and effective implementation of total policies to stimulate economic growth [3] - There is a focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation, with measures to boost consumption and effective investment [3] - The government aims to create a favorable industrial ecosystem, promote cooperation among businesses, and accelerate the transformation of technological achievements [3]

Group 1: Hot News - The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investments in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", supporting energy conservation and carbon reduction transformations in key industries such as electricity, steel, and non - ferrous metals [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% from 3.0% in July, while keeping the 2026 forecast at 3.1%. Trump's trade war may significantly drag down global output [4] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and address disorderly and irrational competition in industries [4] - In September, the trading volume of China's futures market was 770,214,190 lots, a 3.03% year - on - year decrease, and the trading value was 71.495835 trillion yuan, a 33.16% year - on - year increase [4] - Analyst Adam Button speculated that the US September employment report might be poor based on Powell's hints [5] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on include silver, glass, crude oil, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [6] - In the holiday overseas market, the precious metals sector had a capital increase ratio of 31.95%, the non - metallic building materials sector had a 2.81% increase, and other sectors also showed different performance [6] - The table shows the daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of various major asset classes, including stocks, fixed - income, commodities, and others [8] Group 3: Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., along with related ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomically, Powell opened the door for the Fed to cut interest rates. Since the September meeting, the outlook has not changed much, there is a significant downside risk to employment, and it may be close to stopping balance - sheet reduction. Domestically, Li Qiang emphasized counter - cyclical regulation. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad have increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed, sulfuric acid prices have risen significantly, smelters' profit margins are large, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities have been released, and refined zinc production has reached a high level. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, import losses continue to expand, import inflows decline, and the export window is expected to open. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect is dull, the real - estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home - appliance sectors bring some bright spots. Domestic social inventories have rebounded, and post - holiday price increases have curbed procurement demand. Technically, positions are stable while prices decline, with differences between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,015 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan; the 10 - 11 - month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 70 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. LME three - month zinc is quoted at 2,953.5 dollars/ton, down 58.5 dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 210,731 lots, up 675 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,063 lots, down 4,649 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 65,666 tons, up 7,172 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 106,950 tons, up 8,940 tons; LME inventory is 38,600 tons, up 1,125 tons [1] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,010 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,740 yuan/ton, down 410 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME zinc spread (0 - 3) is 87.22 dollars/ton, down 114.38 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,080 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 30,200 tons, up 57,400 tons [1] Upstream Situation - The global zinc ore production (monthly) is 1.0762 million tons, down 5,200 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [1] Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons; refined zinc exports are 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. Zinc social inventory is 153,600 tons, up 17,500 tons. The production of galvanized sheets is 2.31 million tons, down 40,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.37 million tons, up 70,000 tons [1] Downstream Situation - The new - construction area of houses is 398.0101 million square meters, up 45.9501 million square meters; the completed area of houses is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. Automobile production is 2.7524 million vehicles, up 242,400 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [1] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.23%, down 1.5 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.23%, down 1.5 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.45%, up 0.01 percentage point; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.03%, up 0.07 percentage point [1] Industry News - Li Qiang chaired an economic symposium, emphasizing counter - cyclical regulation. Powell opened the door for the Fed to cut interest rates. Fed Governor Bowman expected two rate cuts by the end of the year. The IMF released the World Economic Outlook Report, predicting global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Report Date: October 15, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Pay attention to changes in capital market sentiment. In the short term, treasury bond futures may not break upward, but the downward decline space is also limited. Traders should adopt a volatile trading strategy [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened lower and closed down after volatile trading. Spot bond yields fluctuated during the day and ended slightly higher overall. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. The open - market conducted 4.35 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 60 billion yuan of repurchase, resulting in a net injection of 49.35 billion yuan [1] Market News - Li Qiang chaired a symposium of economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing the need to intensify and improve counter - cyclical adjustment and make full use of policy resources. An article in Qiushi magazine stated that to consolidate and expand the positive economic recovery momentum, attention should be paid to both supply - demand balance regulation and expectation management [1] Market Analysis - Stocks and bonds showed a seesaw relationship again during the day. The weakening of the stock market in the morning briefly lifted TL, while the strengthening of the stock market in the afternoon led to a decline in the bond market. The stock market index stood above 3900 points again today, but trading volume shrank. In the short term, it is difficult to have a smooth upward trend and may maintain range - bound fluctuations, exerting limited pressure on the bond market. In September, the year - on - year decline in CPI and PPI both narrowed, but not driven by domestic demand, so the data had limited impact on the bond market [2] Data Statistics | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 15 | 2025 - 10 - 14 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.372 | 102.386 | - 0.014 | | TF2512 | 105.715 | 105.765 | - 0.05 | | T2512 | 108.1 | 108.19 | - 0.09 | | TL2512 | 114.48 | 114.74 | - 0.26 | | TS Contract Position (Lots) | 74012 | 74633 | - 621 | | TF Contract Position (Lots) | 157295 | 155962 | 1333 | | T Contract Position (Lots) | 256645 | 263295 | - 6650 | | TL Contract Position (Lots) | 178318 | 180122 | - 1804 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0312 | - 0.0117 | - 0.0195 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0497 | 0.003 | - 0.0527 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.1258 | 0.0631 | 0.0627 | | TL Basis (CTD) | - 0.0129 | 0.2925 | - 0.3054 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 24518 | 32167 | - 7649 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 47109 | 73462 | - 26353 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 89364 | 125811 | - 36447 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 122948 | 155935 | - 32987 | [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The President of Indonesia ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, which may exacerbate the shortage of tin ore supply; the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar has rebounded, and short - term supply shows signs of improvement, but tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows [3] - In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level [3] - On the demand side, the sharp rise in tin prices has suppressed spot transactions. Most downstream enterprises are in a wait - and - see state and only make purchases based on strict rigid demand. Traders tend to sell at high prices, resulting in restricted overall transactions [3] - Social inventories have decreased, and the spot premium has rebounded to 400 yuan/ton; LME inventories are decreasing, and the spot premium is stable. Technically, with a decrease in positions and a fall in prices, attention should be paid to the 28 support level. It is recommended to wait and see for now, or try to go long with a light position on pullbacks, focusing on the 28 - 29 range [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 281,710 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract for Shanghai tin is 180 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 35,290 US dollars/ton, down 460 US dollars; the position volume of the main Shanghai tin contract is 28,565 lots, down 761 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 1,533 lots, down 829 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 2,385 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 5,879 tons, down 550 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 190 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 5,677 tons, up 50 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 281,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 282,070 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [3] - The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 10 yuan/ton, down 1,580 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 113 US dollars/ton, down 7.01 US dollars [3] - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 10,300 tons, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 182,630 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, unchanged; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,109,300 tons, up 144,800 tons [3] Industry News - Li Qiang chaired a symposium of economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing counter - cyclical regulation, expanding domestic demand, and building an industrial ecosystem [3] - Powell left the door open for Fed rate cuts, saying the outlook has not changed much since the September meeting, employment downside risks are significant, and the Fed may be close to stopping balance - sheet reduction [3] - Fed Governor Bowman expects two rate cuts by the end of the year, and the current more significant risk lies in employment. The Fed is promoting a phased reform proposal for the stress - testing process [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook Report, forecasting that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the July forecast, and maintain the 2026 growth forecast at 3.1%. The IMF also slightly raised the economic growth forecasts of the United States for this year and next by 0.1 percentage points and kept China's economic growth forecast for this year at 4.8% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report [3] 2. Core Viewpoint The nickel market's oversupply situation is difficult to change, and nickel prices are expected to adjust at a low level. Technically, with increasing positions and fluctuating prices, there is a divergence in long - short trading. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position operations within a range [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel is 121,180 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,104 dollars/ton, down 76 dollars; the position of the main contract for Shanghai nickel is 68,681 lots, down 4,426 lots - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel is - 34,042 lots, down 3,238 lots; LME nickel inventory is 246,756 tons, up 3,498 tons - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 33,119 tons, up 3,604 tons; the LME nickel canceled warrants total 6,270 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai nickel is 26,558 tons, up 1,531 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River is 122,500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,120 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 208.69 dollars/ton, down 5.92 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 6.3467 million tons, up 1.3409 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 15.0093 million tons, up 0.9156 million tons - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 61.33 dollars/ton, down 2.43 dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 24,426.84 tons, down 13,807.17 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 874,100 tons, up 38,200 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, up 39,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 583,400 tons, up 32,000 tons [3] 3.6行业消息 - Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical regulation, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem - Powell opened the door for the Fed to cut interest rates, and Fed Governor Bowman expected two interest rate cuts by the end of the year - The IMF predicted that the world economy would grow by 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, and maintained China's economic growth forecast for this year at 4.8% [3]

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12560 | -5 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -180 | 20 3239 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) 193490 | -10018 | -1458 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 84007 | -490 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) 9250 | 13550 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | | -50 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 610 | 5 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.2 | -0.02 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) 87.41 | | 24426.84 -13807.17 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures main contract is fluctuating weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. It is recommended to trade with a light - position range - bound strategy, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract opened lower and rebounded slightly, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum main contract opened lower and rebounded slightly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,910 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,797 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 80 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; that of alumina is - 6 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 148,539 lots, down 10,640 lots; that of the alumina main contract is 361,466 lots, up 5,093 lots [2]. - **LME Data**: The LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 98,250 tons, unchanged; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,739.5 dollars/ton, down 17.5 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 503,950 tons, down 2,050 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,865 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - **Other Spot Data**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum premium is 40 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the LME aluminum premium is 10.22 dollars/ton, down 11.03 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production and Supply**: The alumina production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 86.74%, up 1.99 percentage points; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap Trade**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export volume is 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in operation has increased slightly; the electrolytic aluminum open - rate is 98.27%, up 0.16 percentage points; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 60.40 million tons, up 1.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The aluminum products production is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 52.10 million tons, down 0.90 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.91 million tons, up 0.42 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Production**: The automobile production is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Alumina Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the reduced shipments in Guinea due to climate reasons, the domestic bauxite supply will continue to decline, and the bauxite price is firm. The alumina spot price is weakening, but smelters still have profit margins, so the supply remains stable. The increase in electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has a limited impact on alumina consumption [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding [2]. 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: The supply of alumina is excessive, and its price is weakening. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased slightly. With good profit margins for smelters, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing slightly. The demand for downstream aluminum products is expected to improve after the holidays and due to policies [2]. - **Options**: The put - call ratio is 1.24, up 0.0405, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars have just appeared [2]. 3.8 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: The cost of cast aluminum is rising due to the strong aluminum price and tight scrap aluminum supply, but the supply may decrease. The market consumption is gradually recovering after the holidays, but the spot purchase by downstream enterprises is cautious, and the inventory is accumulating [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper opened low and strengthened, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, the TC fee has been running in the negative range, and the copper ore supply has been tightened due to the shutdown of overseas mining areas. On the supply side, the smelter's production capacity is expected to be limited, and the domestic refined copper supply may decrease. On the demand side, downstream enterprises will gradually resume work after the holidays, but the spot market's purchasing intention is cautious. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a red column above the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 85,800 yuan/ton, up 1390 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 10,678.50 dollars/ton, up 100.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 50 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the open interest of the main Shanghai copper contract was 175,899 hands, down 11,667 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 2,306 hands, up 395 hands. The LME copper inventory was 138,800 tons, down 550 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 109,690 tons, up 14,656 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 8,550 tons, down 2,175 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants were 44,531 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 85,235 yuan/ton, down 755 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 85,495 yuan/ton, down 505 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 43.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 565 yuan/ton, down 2,145 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was 54.87 dollars/ton, down 171.91 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The TC fee of domestic copper smelters was - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 75,790 yuan/metal ton, down 480 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 76,490 yuan/metal ton, down 480 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The production of refined copper was 1.301 billion tons, up 31 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 485,000 tons, up 55,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 430,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 58,940 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 72,500 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of copper products was 2.2219 billion tons, up 52.6 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, up 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, down 438,933,600 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 22.01%, up 0.48%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 16.49%, up 0.41%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 20.09%, down 0.0144%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.28, down 0.127 [2]. Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said that the liquidity in the money market is gradually tightening, and the balance - sheet reduction may be close to an end in the next few months. Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments. The IMF predicted that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025. The production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles in China in September reached new highs [2].