阿根廷大豆销售激增！农户为何抢在7月前出货？这对全球市场有何影响？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

相关链接 伊以冲突仍在持续，美国考虑在本周末对伊朗发动袭击！SC原油凌晨"V"型反转，后市会否再创阶段新 高？ 期货热点追踪 ...

WBMS报告：全球精炼铜单月过剩扩大至19万吨，铜矿高产是主因？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

豆粕生猪：期现再度分化 豆粕基差回归 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 一、行情综述 DCE 豆粕主力 2509 合约下跌，最终收盘价较上个交易日下降 0.39%，收于 3062 吨，较 上一个交易日下降 12/吨，沿海主流区域油厂报价上涨 10-50 元/吨，天津 3020 元/吨，较 昨日上涨 30 元/吨，江苏 3010 元/吨，较昨日上涨 20 元/吨，广东 2910 元/吨，较昨日上涨 10 元/吨。DCE 生猪主力 2509 合约随着 20 元/吨，最终收盘价较上个交易日上涨 0.14，收 于 13835/吨，较上一个交易日上涨 10 元/吨。隔夜 CBOT 美豆，主力合约上涨 0.37%收 1074 分/蒲式耳。 二、 主产区天气 1 / 5 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 6 月 13 日美国中西部农业主产区气象预报信息，西部地区周日之前，零星至大范围零 星阵雨。周六之前，南部地区气温接近至高于正常水准;北部地区气温低于正常水平，周日 至下周一，气温高于正常水平。东部地区周日之前，零星阵雨，下周一，零星 ...

2025 年 6 月 18 日 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2507 | 5372 | -22 | 15,361 | 48,782 | | 期 货 | 硅 铁2509 | 5264 | -28 | 105,742 | 220,773 | | | 锰 硅2507 | 5520 | -54 | 2,630 | 20,489 | | | 锰 硅2509 | 5536 | -48 | 161,792 | 421,834 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 货 | 硅 铁:FeSi7 5-B:汇总价格:内 | 蒙 | 5050 | - | 元/吨 | | 现 | 硅 锰:FeMn6 5S i1 7:内 | 蒙 | 5450 | +30.0 | 元/吨 | | | 锰 矿:M n4 4块 | | 36.5 | - | 元/吨 度 | | | 兰 炭:小 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased by over 2%, reaching a price of 9014 yuan per kilogram [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite an increase in port inventories and a continuous decline in rebar demand, iron ore prices remain relatively stable and do not show significant downward movement [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Port inventories of iron ore have increased, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [1] - Demand for rebar, a key steel product, continues to decline, which typically would exert downward pressure on iron ore prices [1] Group 2: Price Stability - Iron ore prices are described as "not falling significantly," suggesting that market dynamics are preventing a sharp decline despite the unfavorable demand-supply conditions [1]

期货热点追踪 以色列袭击伊朗后，船只被警告避开红海，转而航行霍尔木兹海峡。点击阅读。 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to Israel's attack on Iran, leading to a surge in various futures contracts, particularly SC crude oil, which hit the limit up [1] Group 2 - Institutional analysis indicates that the short-term outlook for oil prices is expected to be strong amid the heightened geopolitical situation [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 11, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 34,255 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.72%. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at 7,560 yuan/ton and an intraday increase of 2.23% [2]. - With the full - scale reduction of hydropower prices in the southwest region and the continuous decline of silicon coal and electrodes, the cost center of industrial silicon has been continuously adjusted downwards. The operating level of silicon plants during the wet season has been reduced to the limit, and there are few variables on the demand side, so industrial silicon has stopped falling in the short term. Polysilicon has continued to reduce its load comprehensively, and there is still a possibility of expanding the production - restriction quota through industry self - discipline in the future. A new round of order signing has been completed, but the volume is limited, and from the perspective of spot trading, low - grade products are more resistant to price drops than high - grade products. Polysilicon remains weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon: The main contract 2507 closed at 34,255 yuan/ton, up 0.72% intraday, with a position reduction of 2,509 lots to 60,199 lots. The SMM N - type polysilicon material price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest - delivery N - type polysilicon material remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 2,245 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon: The main contract 2507 closed at 7,560 yuan/ton, up 2.23% intraday, with a position reduction of 8,591 lots to 147,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 8,750 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The price of the lowest - delivery 553 grade dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: - Futures settlement price: The main contract increased from 7,395 yuan/ton on June 10 to 7,475 yuan/ton on June 11, up 80 yuan/ton. The near - month contract also increased by 80 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable. The spot premium narrowed from 205 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 578 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 13,400 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: - Futures settlement price: The main contract increased from 33,955 yuan/ton on June 10 to 34,255 yuan/ton on June 11, up 300 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract decreased by 135 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable. The spot premium narrowed from 2,545 yuan/ton to 2,245 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 120 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 60,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 100 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][5][7]. - **Downstream Finished Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][15][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, and total social inventory), DMC, and polysilicon [19][23][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, and the cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][26][28]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [35].