大 类 资 产 配 置 相关研究 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 23 日 通胀预期升温，全球权益多数回调 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250614-20250620) 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 ⚫ 本周（20250614–20250620）。本周美联储维持利率不变符合市场预期，但是联储将今年个人消费支 出价格指数涨幅的预测中值从 3 月份的 2.7%升至 3%，显著高于美联储 2%的 ...

Core Insights - The public REITs market in China has rapidly developed, achieving a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan and becoming the largest in Asia with 66 listed products [1][2] - The unique dividend mechanism of public REITs has provided substantial returns to investors, with total dividends approaching 22 billion yuan since 2021 [1][4] - The market is currently in a policy dividend period, with significant regulatory support expected to drive sustainable growth [2][3] Market Development - Since the launch of the first public REITs in June 2021, the total market value has increased from over 30 billion yuan to 206.6 billion yuan by June 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year [2][3] - The expansion of underlying asset categories has progressed from four initial types to include various sectors such as rental housing, energy, and data centers, reflecting a growing diversity in investment opportunities [3][4] Investor Landscape - The investor base for public REITs has diversified, now including institutional investors such as banks, insurance companies, and private equity, alongside individual investors [4] - The introduction of new accounting guidelines has reduced performance pressure on institutional investors, encouraging long-term holding strategies [2][4] Performance Metrics - Public REITs have shown strong performance, with annual dividends increasing from 0.69 billion yuan in 2021 to 8.39 billion yuan in 2024, totaling nearly 22 billion yuan over the four years [4][5] - The market has seen significant price appreciation, with the CSI REITs total return index rising over 16% in 2023, and several products experiencing gains exceeding 50% [5] Future Outlook - The public REITs market is expected to maintain high valuations in the next 1-2 years, driven by ongoing policy support and a mismatch between supply and demand for stable dividend assets [5] - The market is anticipated to continue evolving, with potential for greater investment value as it matures [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent departure of senior executives at Huiquan Fund, including the resignation of General Manager Liang Yongqiang, raises concerns about the company's stability and future growth potential, while the appointment of Chen Hongbin as the new General Manager may bring fresh perspectives and expertise to improve asset allocation capabilities [1][4][8]. Group 1: Executive Changes - Liang Yongqiang, a veteran in the public fund industry and the second-largest shareholder of Huiquan Fund, has left the company due to work adjustments, with Chen Hongbin taking over as General Manager [1][4]. - Chen Hongbin has extensive experience in the financial sector, having held various senior positions in insurance and banking, which may enhance the company's appeal to investors [5][9]. - The appointment of new executives, including Vice General Manager Chai Le, follows a recent trend of high turnover in the company's leadership, which could impact employee morale and company culture [5][8]. Group 2: Company Performance and Challenges - Huiquan Fund, established five years ago, has seen a decline in its asset size from a peak of 35.87 billion yuan to 24.33 billion yuan, indicating challenges in retaining and attracting investments [6][8]. - The fund currently manages 21 products, with mixed performance; some funds have underperformed compared to their peers, highlighting potential weaknesses in asset allocation strategies [7][8]. - The average return of the fund's active equity products over the past year is 2.77%, with some products significantly underperforming, which may affect investor confidence [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The new leadership under Chen Hongbin is expected to focus on improving investment strategies, risk management, and enhancing client services to attract and retain investors [9]. - The ability to redefine company culture and strategy amidst executive changes presents an opportunity for Huiquan Fund to strengthen its market position [5][8].

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想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 美元债 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 美元债就是其中的重要一环，那么美元债券基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，系统性地介绍了美元债券基金的投资知识。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 很多投资者都希望多元化配置自己的资金，想要覆盖人民币资产和外币资产，也想要覆盖股票 资产和债券类资产。 ...

❑ 在此进程中，金融机构面临三方面机遇与挑战：第一，低利率环境下，境 内资金为追求更高回报和平衡风险收益进行全球配置的需求和必要性上 升，"去美元化"趋势下，人民币汇率可能升值，为资本金融项目可兑换 程度提升和境内主体增持境外证券资产创造条件。第二，更大规模的对外 资产意味着风险传染程度加剧、风险类别增加，金融机构应针对海外资产 提升风险意识和风险管理能力。第三，资本金融项目双向开放将带来资金 双向流动的增加，外资流入国内金融市场仍具有较大潜力，同样给国内机 构投资者带来业务机会。 谢亚轩 S1090511030010 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn 刘亚欣 S1090516100001 liuyaxin@cmschina.com.cn 低利率时代的中国跨境资本流动和资产配置 事件：2025年6月18日，中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新在2025 陆家嘴论坛上的"坚定推进外汇领域深层次改革和高水平开放，积极服务经济 高质量发展" 主题演讲中提出，近期将新发放一批合格境内机构投资者 （QDII）投资额度，有序满足境内主体境外投资合理需求。 核心观点： 率下滑和风险收益平衡的双重挑战。在此背景 ...

"大浪淘沙"，在不确定中找寻确定性 2025 年 06 月 22 日 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com ➢ 我们一直认为：作为一个慢变量，宏观应该是经济和金融市场中相对容易预 测的部分。但在经历了近期的市场波动后，外界也许更加理解我们为什么会说： 今年预测不到的事，远比我们自认为能预测的事要多。当"百年未有之大变局" 下遇到了历史上数一数二"善变"的美国总统，全球宏观研究员和外贸企业突然 成为了同一拨"被害者"。唯一能庆幸的是相比后者，至少我们不用安排自己的产 品"海面两万里"（抢转口或是出口）。 2025 年三季度宏观经济与大类资产展望 1.2025 年 5 月财政数据点评：5 月财政：找 寻"抗风险"的答案-2025/06/21 2.经济动态跟踪："国补"继续下的消费后劲- 2025/06/19 3.美联储政策观察：6 月议息：谁能"逼"出 联储的降息？-2025/06/18 4.重新讨论变局下的资 ...

Core Insights - Li Ka-shing's wealth is primarily concentrated in the UK rather than Hong Kong, challenging the perception of his business empire being rooted in his home city [1][3] - His investments in the UK span essential services such as water, electricity, and gas, which provide stable and significant returns compared to the volatile Hong Kong real estate market [5][7] Investment Strategy - Li Ka-shing's acquisition of Thames Water in 1991 marked the beginning of his strategic investment in the UK, which has expanded to include significant stakes in gas and electricity distribution [5][7] - His investments are characterized by a focus on essential infrastructure, which ensures consistent cash flow and minimizes risk [7][9] Market Timing and Risk Management - Li Ka-shing has demonstrated a keen ability to time his investments, often capitalizing on market downturns, such as acquiring UK Power Networks during the Brexit-induced depreciation of the pound [9][11] - His withdrawal from certain investments, like the sale of UK Power Networks, reflects a strategic response to emerging political and economic risks, showcasing his proactive risk management approach [9][11] Global Asset Allocation - The narrative of Li Ka-shing's wealth migration illustrates the concept that capital transcends borders, driven by a relentless calculation of risk and return [13] - His global investments are not limited to the UK, as he is also exploring opportunities in regions like Singapore and Vietnam, indicating a broader strategy for wealth diversification [13]

随着美联储维持利率不变，全球市场进入新一轮观望期。 券商中国记者注意到，从资产类别到区域配置，外资的战略重心正在发生微妙变化。相较于对美国市场的谨慎 态度，欧洲、日本与新兴市场正逐步获得更高的权重。信用债、黄金、欧元等多元资产也重新进入主流视野， 全球资产配置的格局正在悄然重塑。 美联储按兵不动，政策扰动下的市场波动未止 尽管市场对于通胀和经济前景仍存在诸多疑问，但多家外资机构判断，美联储本轮议息会议维持利率不变，符 合预期。在关税博弈、地缘冲突、财政不确定性等多重扰动交织之下，投资机构普遍对政策路径和宏观趋势持 谨慎态度。 贝莱德智库指出，美国CPI等经济数据波动剧烈，反映出当前宏观经济正处于波动更大的阶段。他们认为，在 等待关税影响成为现实的过程中，美联储将维持利率不变。贝莱德据此维持超配美股的观点。 相关数据显示，随着贸易紧张局势缓和，标普500指数已反弹到2月高点附近。为期90天的关税暂停期将于7月9 日结束，贝莱德智库认为，鉴于美国正酝酿在此之前单方面设定关税，预计将会有更多由政策引发的波动。 此外，鉴于关税的经济影响尚不明确以及通胀持续波动，美联储在本周的议息会议上 "按兵不动"。贝莱德智 库认为 ...

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector is rapidly gaining popularity, with a peak in the reporting of themed funds. Approximately 30 pharmaceutical-themed funds were reported in the second quarter, which is roughly equivalent to the total number of such funds established in 2024. Some industry insiders believe that while the current valuations in the pharmaceutical industry are not low, they have not yet entered a bubble phase. From a capital allocation perspective, as the industry's fundamentals improve, actively managed equity funds are expected to return to standard allocations in the pharmaceutical sector [1][3]. - Equity funds are accelerating their positions in the market. Since June, 47 new equity funds have been established, with several funds that have been active for less than half a month already entering the position-building phase. Industry experts suggest that strong policy support is driving the gradual recovery of market valuations, creating abundant structural investment opportunities in the A-share market, prompting fund managers to seize the opportunity to accelerate their positions [1][3]. - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged in June. The People's Bank of China announced that the one-year LPR is 3.0% and the five-year LPR is 3.5%, both unchanged from the previous month. Industry insiders believe that the stability of the LPR this month aligns with market expectations after a 10 basis point decrease in both tenors in May [1][3]. Group 2 - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has standardized the dividend insurance market, prohibiting arbitrary increases in dividend levels for competitive purposes. The new regulations require that the necessity, reasonableness, and sustainability of dividend levels be thoroughly justified, aiming to curb "involution-style" competition in the industry, prevent interest margin losses, and promote the long-term stable development of dividend insurance business [2]. Group 3 - Australian funds are reducing their holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over policy risks associated with Donald Trump's administration. Some of Australia's largest investors, managing assets equivalent to $30 billion, have shifted towards reducing their exposure to U.S. sovereign debt, reflecting a cautious stance amid potential policy changes [4].