以下文章来源于大马哈投资 ，作者我叫大马哈 大马哈投资 . 雪球2021年度基金影响力账号，做专业靠谱有深度的基金研究 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：大马哈投资 来源：雪球 大家都知道 ， 今年以来的黄金资产表现得是相当抢眼 ， 年内伦敦金涨幅逾60% 。 当看到这样的涨幅时 ， 很多投资者第一时间就会问 ， 未来黄金还能不能涨 ， 现在要不要配置 ？ 对于黄金未来表现这个问题 ， 我此前在黄金 ， 是不是又可以看看了 ？ 中做过详细的展开 ， 感兴趣的朋友可以参考 。 今天我想撇开这个话题 ， 回到黄金对我们的另一层投资价值上 ， 即资产配置价值 。 这是因为 ， 若不是这几年黄金蹭蹭蹭的上涨 ， 大家配置 黄金的最大理由就是配置价值 。 鉴于如今人人都在谈资产配置 ， 因此我今天想来聊聊这个话题 ， 希望能给大家一些启发 。 01 如何选择资产配置的底层资产 ？ 关于如何选择资产配置的底层资产 ， 其最大的原则就是 低相关性 ， 否则如果几类资产之间高相关 ， 那么资产配置的效应则会大幅减弱 。 鉴于此 ， ...

这篇经济评论分析白银暴涨背后的真相：机遇还是陷阱？2025年白银成最大黑马，半年暴涨70%！从工业需求激增到实物抢购引发供应紧张，再到金银比修 复与机构布局，五大核心动力推动银价飙升，但高波动性与工业属性也暗藏风险，投资需谨慎。 很多人晒出持仓截图，去年年底入手的白银基金，现在收益已经翻了近一倍，要知道，今年以来国际银价累计涨幅超90%，把黄金62%的涨幅远远甩在身 后，彻底摘掉了"千年老二"的帽子。 机构们也坐不住了，中银证券连发三份研报看涨白银，瑞银更是给出明确目标：2026年银价要突破60美元/盎司，这波涨势到底是机会还是陷阱？得从根上 捋清楚。 聊白银前，先讲段真真切切的历史，看完你就懂这东西有多不简单，上世纪30年代，美国大萧条正凶，银矿主们天天愁眉苦脸，银价从58美分/盎司跌到20 多美分，矿场倒闭了一批又一批。 白银疯涨刷屏：从"千年老二"到市场新宠 黄金狂飙，白银咆哮，最近的金融圈没人能绕开这俩"明星"，打开交易软件，红彤彤的涨幅刺得人眼睛发花——短短两天，COMEX白银价格一举冲破58美 元/盎司，创下历史新高。 伦敦金银市场协会的数据更惊人，从2021年中到现在，伦敦市场能自由流通的白银库 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conference focused on "Finding the Path to Breakthrough for the Chinese Economy," addressing key issues such as macroeconomic trends, technological innovation, and capital market restructuring in the context of global changes [1]. Group 1: Economic Challenges and Opportunities - The chairman of Hexun, Zhang Zhifang, highlighted the vibrant growth in China's tech and cultural sectors, exemplified by the success of AI and film industries, while also noting challenges such as unbalanced development and risks in key areas [4]. - Huang Qifan pointed out that China's urbanization has transitioned from a 1.0 version (1980-2020) with an urbanization rate increase from 18% to 38% to a 2.0 version aiming for a further 30% increase, targeting a rate of 78% [6]. - Liu Shijun emphasized that the shift from investment and export-driven growth to innovation and consumption-driven growth is crucial during the 14th Five-Year Plan, necessitating a focus on expanding consumption and improving livelihoods [9]. Group 2: Future Economic Outlook - Yao Yang suggested that stabilizing the real estate market and local government finances is essential for supporting short-term demand and restoring economic vitality [10]. - Li Xunlei discussed the need for structural adjustments and reforms to address the intertwined issues of real estate cycles and structural problems, advocating for a technology-led growth model [11]. - Liang Hong noted that improvements in production efficiency are foundational for the revaluation of RMB assets and strengthening of the currency [11]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and AI Impact - Li Yang indicated that low interest rates may become a norm in China's financial landscape, with monetary policy increasingly focusing on asset prices and systematic interventions in the bond market [14]. - Cai Fang addressed the structural employment challenges posed by AI, advocating for policies that align AI development with employment strategies [16]. - Yao Xin highlighted that AI's impact extends beyond technology, affecting societal paradigms and economic models, while Cai Hongping expressed skepticism about the immediate applicability of humanoid robots in complex environments [19][20]. Group 4: Capital Market and Investment Strategies - Wang Qing stated that the Chinese capital market is not synchronizing with the real economy, predicting a shift towards performance-driven stock market dynamics [22]. - Xing Ziqiang noted that historical patterns of over-investment during technological revolutions suggest that the current AI boom will ultimately enhance global productivity [22]. - Wu Xiaoqiu emphasized the need to transition from a financing-centered approach to one that prioritizes investor rights in the restructuring of China's capital market ecosystem [24].

陆女士表示："（利率）跟之前比，肯定没得比。我去年9月份存了一笔是（年利率）2.4%，三年 期的是2.4%。今年三年期的只有1.75%了。" 央广网北京12月8日消息（总台中国之声记者王逸群）据中央广播电视总台中国之声报道，五年期 大额存单集体"下架"，三年期大额存单门槛上调，长期限存款产品为何"一单难求"？存款利率下行压力 下，普通储户如何配置资产？ 近日，"六大国有银行集体下架五年期大额存单"的消息引发关注。不少居民反映，大额存单额度难 抢，利率下调。记者查询多家银行手机银行发现，五年期大额存单产品已经基本退市，部分三年期大额 存单也提高了办理门槛。那么，长期限存款产品越来越难买的背后，都有哪些原因？存款短期化是否会 成为未来趋势？面对存款利率下调，普通居民和银行业应当如何调整？ 安徽马鞍山市民陆女士是一名财务人员，一直关注着理财方面的信息。她告诉记者，自己此前曾持 有三年期大额存单，今年到期后本想续存同类产品，却发现市场早已不是当初的模样。 董希淼介绍："近年来，商业银行净息差明显下滑，通过提高门槛、压缩额度，一定程度上能降低 高成本负债规模，努力维持息差基本稳定。部分银行将稀缺的中长期存款额度，作为服 ...

12月7日，中国央行公布的数据显示，11月末黄金储备达7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，实现连续第13个月增持。这一动作看似微小，却折射出全球货币体 系深层变局。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，国际金价可能长期保持易涨难跌态势，这背后是美元信用体系松动的冰山一角。 美元资产信任危机下的黄金突围 全球央行正以历史级速度囤积黄金。世界黄金协会数据显示，10月各国央行净购金量达53吨，创年内单月峰值。中国央行13个月的增持轨迹，恰与美联储加 息周期尾声重叠。光大银行分析师周茂华认为，美国公共债务风险攀升，叠加地缘冲突频发，迫使各国重新评估外汇储备安全性。黄金作为非主权信用资 产，成为对冲美元贬值风险的关键工具。 分 易服通助力企业 金价牛市的平民化启示 黄金市场已悄然进入第三轮牛市。光大证券高瑞东团队发现，在央行持续购金支撑下，金价中枢突破前高形成新平台。对普通投资者而言，这传递出明确信 号：当全球央行集体增持黄金时，个人资产配置中5%-10%的黄金比例，或许是对抗通胀与黑天鹅事件的低成本方案。 当前黄金的金融属性正超越商品属性，成为衡量全球信用风险的温度计。央行13个月的坚持，或许正是给市场参与者上的一堂风险教育 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fund issuance market remains robust as year-end approaches, with many new funds being launched and several funds ending their fundraising early, indicating a continuous influx of capital into the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Issuance Trends - As of December 3, 14 new funds announced early closure of their fundraising since November, reflecting strong demand [1]. - The newly launched Xingquan CSI 300 Quality ETF, initially set to raise funds until December 5, closed early on December 1 after selling over 1 billion units in just two days, with a fundraising cap of 2 billion yuan [1]. - The total number of new funds established this year reached 1,488, surpassing the numbers from 2024 (1,136) and 2023 (1,280), and is close to the 2022 figure of 1,546 [2]. Group 2: Fund Types and Investor Preferences - Passive funds, particularly equity and mixed funds, have gained popularity, making up over 50% of new products this year, the highest level in three years [2]. - "Fixed income plus" products have seen significant growth, with a total market size of 2.44 trillion yuan as of Q3, up over 500 billion yuan from Q2 [3]. - Index-enhanced funds are favored by institutions as a way to enter passive investment, allowing for both index tracking and showcasing active management capabilities [4].

房子除了居住属性外，还有投资属性。刚需买房不算。出现哪些情况你会考虑投资买房？ 1、房价连续两年上涨，每年涨幅超过5% 2、每年租金收入达到5%以上 3、零首付，贷款贴息。 鼎级外星人 从纯粹投资的角度来说，就我个人的想法而言，就根本不会考虑房子。 假如证券市场里面有这样一个股票或基金， 每次交易佣金2%到3%，其他税费2%到5%， 随着时间推移，它的交易价格相对大盘指数会出现越来越大的折价， 每次交易你要自己寻找买家或卖家，一对一慢慢撮合成交。 平均每次成交周期6个月甚至2年以上（有些城市要两年以后才能再交易）。 很难轮动，也很难有独立行情。 从纯粹投资的角度来说，这样一个股票或基金，你敢买吗？ 而房子相当于就是这样的股票。 当然，对于不搞证券投资的人来说，只考虑购买房子的话， 如果不是刚需，投资房子要等潜在的接盘侠变多以后才稳当。 比如这种情况：人口出生数量回升，或者至少不再继续下滑。 孔曼子 1. 只买好租地段的公寓，即使扣除装修折旧并托管给第三方，租金也已超过5%。 2. 只有在股市赚钱的情况下，才会拿出盈利的一部分购买公寓，不强求，不多买。 3. 家庭流动资产占比较高，公寓占总资产比例较低，中短期不 ...

Group 1 - China's first national major scientific and technological infrastructure in the information and communication field, the Future Network Experimental Facility, has officially commenced operations, providing open experimental support for various sectors including industrial manufacturing, energy, education, and healthcare [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released a national standard for food delivery platform service management, aiming to address issues like "ghost deliveries" and enhance the rights of delivery personnel, promoting innovation and healthy competition in the food delivery industry [1] - In November, the number of second-hand residential transactions in first-tier cities reached 49,000 units, marking a seven-month high with a significant month-on-month increase of 20%, and a total of 519,000 units sold in the first eleven months of the year, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5% [1] Group 2 - Multiple high-performing funds have further reduced their purchase limits, with 29 fund managers implementing purchase restrictions on 41 funds on December 4, with limits ranging from 100 yuan to 1.5 billion yuan, aimed at maintaining strategy capacity and reducing transaction costs [2] - In the U.S., the ADP employment report for November showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs, the largest drop in two and a half years, leading to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [2] - Global funds have continued to buy South Korean bonds, with overseas funds net purchasing $1.39 billion in South Korean bonds on November 28, marking the 20th consecutive day of net buying [2] Group 3 - Major global stock markets mostly rose in the past week, with the A-share indices in China collectively increasing, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.26%, and the Hang Seng Index also showing a weekly increase of 0.87% [3] - In the U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.50%, the S&P 500 by 0.31%, and the Nasdaq by 0.91% during the week [4] - In Asia, the South Korean Composite Index led with a 4.42% increase, while the Nikkei 225 and the Straits Times Index also saw slight gains [4] Group 4 - Recent trends in government bond yields showed a mixed performance, with the 1-year Chinese government bond yield decreasing by 0.36 basis points to 1.40%, while the 10-year U.S. government bond yield increased by 12.00 basis points to 4.14% [8] - The majority of fund indices showed an upward trend, with the Wind All Fund Index rising by 0.46% and the Wind Stock Fund Total Index increasing by 0.88% [9] Group 5 - In the commodity market, precious metals showed divergence, with COMEX gold decreasing by 0.64% and COMEX silver increasing by 2.86% [11] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.46%, while the exchange rate of the dollar against the onshore and offshore Chinese yuan showed slight declines [12]

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council advocates the "Gold+" asset allocation concept to help investors overcome challenges in gold investment, promoting gold as a long-term strategic asset to enhance risk resilience and optimize overall returns [1][3][5]. Group 1: Challenges Faced by Investors - Investors face three main difficulties in gold investment: understanding, entry, and holding [3][4]. - "Understanding difficulty" arises from the complex factors influencing gold prices, leading many to treat gold as a speculative tool rather than a strategic asset [4][5]. - "Entry difficulty" is characterized by hesitation over whether the current price is too high, causing investors to miss opportunities [4][5]. - "Holding difficulty" refers to the challenge of maintaining long-term positions in gold, with many selling during price fluctuations instead of holding for potential long-term gains [4][5]. Group 2: Long-term Value of Gold - Over the past 50 years, gold has provided an average annual return of approximately 10%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 60% since early 2025 [5]. - The "Gold+" concept encourages a shift from short-term speculation to long-term allocation, establishing gold as a strategic core asset [5][6]. Group 3: Recommended Allocation Strategies - The World Gold Council suggests two main strategies for gold allocation: indirect allocation through institutional investors and direct allocation by individuals [5][6]. - For individual investors, it is recommended to allocate 5% to 15% of household assets to gold, depending on personal risk tolerance [6][10]. - Institutional investors, such as public FOFs, actively incorporate gold into their long-term investment strategies, emphasizing discipline and strategic positioning [10][11]. Group 4: Successful International Examples - The Texas Teacher Retirement Fund exemplifies a conservative approach to gold allocation as part of a long-term investment strategy [7]. - Bridgewater Associates, led by Ray Dalio, views gold as a safeguard against credit risk, advocating for its inclusion in strategic asset allocation rather than tactical price betting [8]. Group 5: Domestic Market Trends - Public FOFs, particularly those targeting retirement, are actively incorporating gold into their investment strategies due to regulatory frameworks and product characteristics that favor long-term, disciplined investment [10][11]. - The discipline in managing gold allocations distinguishes institutional investors from individual investors, who may be more prone to short-term trading [13]. Group 6: Practical Investment Guidance - Investors should avoid speculative mindsets and consider gold as a long-term investment, with a recommended allocation not exceeding 20% of total assets [14][15]. - A gradual approach to investing in gold, such as starting with 2% to 3% of flexible funds and increasing to 5%, is advised to mitigate risks associated with market timing [14][15]. - Regularly reviewing gold investments and taking profits without fully liquidating positions can help maintain a balanced approach [15][16]. Group 7: Future Development of "Gold+" Products - The World Gold Council plans to promote the "Gold+" concept through industry meetings and public outreach, emphasizing gold's role as a strategic asset in long-term wealth preservation [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) are disappearing from banks, leading to a significant shift in savings habits among depositors as interest rates decline sharply [1][3][5]. Group 1: Product Supply - Major state-owned banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, have stopped selling 5-year large-denomination CDs [3]. - Some banks have also ceased offering 3-year large-denomination CDs, with no clear timeline for their return [3]. - Local banks are following suit, with announcements of the cancellation of 5-year fixed-term deposits [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Decline - The interest rates for large-denomination CDs have dropped to the "1" range, with 3-year CDs at 1.55% for major banks [5]. - In contrast, prior to 2020, 3-year and 5-year CDs had yields above 3%, with some smaller banks offering rates close to 4% [5]. - The traditional practice of higher interest rates for larger deposit amounts has been disrupted, as the rates for different deposit amounts are now the same [5]. Group 3: Banking Strategy - The collective withdrawal of long-term large-denomination CDs is a response to the ongoing pressure on banks' net interest margins, which fell to 1.42% by Q3 2025 [7]. - Banks aim to lower liability costs and stabilize net interest margins by reducing the supply of long-term deposits [7]. - The current low net interest margin environment compels banks to avoid high-cost long-term deposits to maintain profitability [7]. Group 4: Shift in Depositor Behavior - With the discontinuation of long-term large-denomination CDs, depositors are seeking alternative investment products, such as savings insurance, government bonds, or structured deposits [9]. - However, these alternatives come with their own limitations, such as lower liquidity for savings insurance and limited issuance for government bonds [9]. - A survey indicates an increase in residents inclined to invest more, rising by 5.6 percentage points to 18.5% [9]. Group 5: New Investment Preferences - Non-principal guaranteed bank wealth management products have become a preferred investment method among residents, with the market size reaching 32.13 trillion yuan, a 9.42% year-on-year increase [11]. - Financial advisors are recommending a diversified asset allocation strategy to improve returns and liquidity, moving away from excessive reliance on long-term deposits [11]. - Low-risk bank wealth management products are suggested as alternatives that may offer better returns than traditional deposits [11]. Group 6: Future Trends - The banking sector is expected to shift towards shorter-term products, emphasizing flexibility and a diverse range of financial products [13]. - Banks need to enhance their wealth management capabilities to maintain customer relationships and ensure stable returns [13]. - Depositors are encouraged to prioritize liquidity in their investments during a declining interest rate environment, allowing for better opportunities in the future [13].