Macro Strategy - The economic resilience in May is highlighted by a year-on-year industrial added value growth of 5.8% and a service production index growth of 6.2%, indicating a slight weakening in industrial supply and a slight strengthening in the service sector [1][18] - Retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the previous month's growth by 1.3 percentage points, while fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][18] - The report identifies three distinct economic narratives: (1) sectors supported by policy, such as infrastructure and durable goods consumption, (2) new productive forces with strong endogenous momentum, and (3) real estate and non-subsidized consumption, which are relatively weaker [1][18] Industry Insights - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its 0-1 industrialization, with significant policy support and application advancements, including the establishment of a standard system for solid-state batteries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [9][10] - Equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from the ongoing optimization and iteration of solid-state battery production equipment, with companies like Xianlead Intelligent and Winbond Technology actively advancing their equipment layouts [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-research in baseband chips for major manufacturers, as it is crucial for brand influence and achieving competitive technological levels [12][13] Financial Products - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) is noted for its strong liquidity and active trading, with a net subscription of 4.74 million units in Q1 2025, reflecting increasing market interest [11] - The ETF has demonstrated excellent performance with a cumulative return of 22.1% and an annualized return of 49.2%, positioning it favorably among non-bank financial products [11] Recommendations - The report recommends companies in the oil service equipment and gas turbine sectors to benefit from high oil prices, highlighting firms like Jereh and Neway as key players [14] - In the real estate sector, it suggests focusing on companies like China Resources Land and Poly Developments, which are expected to stabilize and recover in the current market environment [14] - The report also identifies opportunities in the gas industry, particularly for companies with strong long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as New Hope Energy and China Gas [15]

智通财经APP获悉，美联储官员普遍预计将在美东时间周三举行的利率决议上，连续第四次会议维持利 率不变，并重申在调整借贷成本前，需更清晰了解一系列政府政策调整对经济的影响。政策制定者此前 曾警告称，唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税可能推高通胀与失业率，但迄今为止，稳健的就业增长与通胀降 温让美联储官员今年得以维持利率不变。 德意志银行高级美国经济学家布雷特·瑞安表示："观望策略此前成效显著。如今既无迫切调整理由，通 胀前景仍存上行风险，为何要偏离这一策略?" 鉴于经济前景充满不确定性，投资者与经济学家将密切关注政策制定者更新的经济与利率预测。官员们 可能继续如多数预测所示，在今年计入两次降息，但部分经济学家称，"点阵图"可能仅显示一次降息。 美联储利率决议将于美东时间周三下午2点公布，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在此后30分钟后召开新闻发布 会。 政策声明要点 预计官员们会将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.5%区间，且对5月6-7日会议后的声明仅做细微调整。鉴于5月 会议以来贸易紧张局势(尤其是中美贸易)有所缓和，政策制定者可能微调关于经济前景不确定性的表 述。 瑞安及其团队在客户报告中指出，官员们可能不再称不确定性"进一步加剧 ...

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow down significantly due to uncertainties related to trade policies, with GDP growth forecasted to drop from over 2% to 1.4% by 2025 [2][3] - Inflation expectations have risen, with consumer prices projected to increase by 3.0%, up from a previous estimate of 2.5% [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates to a neutral level of around 3%, which is not considered contractionary for the economy [4] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Prospects - The Eurozone's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 2.1% to 0.8%, largely dependent on Germany's ability to relax fiscal controls [5][7] - Germany's €500 billion infrastructure investment plan could potentially be a game-changer, although its benefits may take time to materialize [5][7] - The Eurozone's inflation is expected to remain below the European Central Bank's target, allowing for potential interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [8] Group 3: UK Economic Situation - The UK economy is showing signs of stability and growth, with GDP growth forecasted at around 1% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 1.5% [9][10] - Recent strong growth and private consumption have shifted the risk outlook positively for the remainder of the year [9] - Inflation remains complex, with short-term fluctuations expected, but a gradual easing in price increases is anticipated due to a loosening labor market [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slowdown in U.S. job growth in May due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, while stable wage growth may keep the economy on track and potentially delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations of 125,000 [4] - The healthcare sector contributed 62,000 new jobs, and the leisure and hospitality industry added 48,000, accounting for nearly 80% of the new positions [4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, with 625,000 people leaving the labor force, indicating a lack of confidence in the job market [4][5] - Hourly wages increased by 0.4%, surpassing market predictions, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%, slightly above the Fed's sustainable inflation target of 3.7% [4] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has slowed to 135,000 from 232,000 in January [4] Labor Market Concerns - There are signs of pressure from the trade war, with 7.24 million people reported as unemployed, the highest level since the U.S. emerged from the pandemic in 2021 [5] - The labor force participation rate dropped from 62.6% in April to 62.4%, primarily affecting the prime working-age population [5] - The employment-population ratio fell from 60.0% in April to 59.7%, indicating a decline in the economy's job creation capacity [5] - Experts suggest that the decline in labor participation may mask marginal deterioration in employment and the labor market [6] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Following the employment data release, President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, criticizing the current monetary policy as a "disaster" [7] - The Fed's current benchmark interest rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, described as "moderately restrictive" [7] - There is ongoing debate on whether tariff-induced inflation is transitory or persistent, with some Fed officials believing it to be a one-time price level increase [7][8] - Market expectations indicate potential rate cuts by the Fed in September and December, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for June 17-18 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Harker, stated that monetary policy decisions by the FOMC are not based on a hypothetical neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Harker emphasized that the FOMC does not rely on a presumed neutral interest rate when making monetary policy decisions [1]

美联储哈克：不会根据中性利率制定政策决定。 订阅美联储动态 +订阅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker stated that policy decisions will not be based on the neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Harker emphasizes the importance of not tying policy decisions to the neutral interest rate, indicating a more flexible approach to monetary policy [1]

新华财经北京6月5日电（王姝睿） 欧洲央行日内如期降息，强化了该央行在经济下行风险中的宽松倾 向。市场尤其注意到欧洲央行对通胀预期的下修，这将引发有关通胀低于2%目标的风险以及进一步降 息预期的讨论。 欧洲央行将存款机制利率下调25个基点至2%，为该央行认为既不抑制也不促进经济的"中性"水平的中 间值。主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率分别从2.4%和2.65%下调至2.15%和2.4%，处于2023年初以来的 最低水平。 最新的欧洲央行季度经济预测显示，2025年和2026年的GDP增长前景将略有放缓，总体通胀水平将下 降。具体预测如下： 预计欧元区2025年核心通胀率为2.4%，2026年为1.9%，2027年为1.9%。（3月预期分别为2.2%、2.0%、 1.9%） 预计欧元区2025年通胀率为2.0%，2026年为1.6%，2027年为2.0%。（3月预期分别为2.3%、1.9%、 2.0%） 预计欧元区2025年GDP增长率为0.9%，2026年为1.1%，2027年为1.3%。（3月预期分别为0.9%、1.2%、 1.3%） 富兰克林邓普顿欧洲固定收益部门负责人David Zahn表示，欧洲央行政策立 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：我们尚未讨论中性利率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2% during its upcoming meeting, marking the eighth rate cut in this cycle due to the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade and economic outlook [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB is anticipated to announce a rate cut on Thursday, with further cuts expected in September as the impact of tariffs becomes clearer [1]. - ECB policymakers, both hawks and doves, indicate that they have nearly completed the process of lowering borrowing costs, with discussions about slowing the pace of easing [5]. - Economists predict a pause in rate cuts next month, but caution that prolonged inaction could lead markets to believe the ECB has halted rate reductions entirely [7]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - Analysts expect the ECB to maintain its previous economic forecasts despite significant changes in the global trade landscape [8]. - The euro has strengthened significantly since March, and lower energy prices are exerting downward pressure on prices, providing relief to businesses affected by weak demand [8]. - The ECB is preparing various scenario forecasts to better understand potential future developments, with the likelihood of the baseline forecast being less than 50% [10]. Group 3: Political and Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming meetings between U.S. and EU officials, including discussions on defense spending and tariffs, are critical for the economic outlook of the eurozone [11]. - The potential for increased defense spending to 5% of GDP, as requested by the U.S., could significantly impact the eurozone economy [11]. - The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of trade negotiations and the ability of governments to implement large-scale defense and infrastructure plans adds to the unpredictability of the economic environment [10].