Group 1 - The article discusses the conflicting inventory data in the oil market and questions the validity of OPEC+'s assertion of a "healthy market" [1] - It raises inquiries about OPEC+'s intentions behind increasing production levels and what they aim to achieve with this strategy [1]

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月30日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 4月29日 7322 | 4月28日 7353 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 -0.42% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 L2509 收盘价 | 7122 | 7164 | -31 -42 | -0.59% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7170 | 7195 | -25 | -0.35% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7092 | 7112 | -20 | -0.28% | | | L2505-2509 | 200 | 189 | 11 | 5.82% | | | PP2505-2509 | 78 | 83 | -5 | -6.02% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7230 | 7250 | -20 | -0.28% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7300 | 7350 | -50 | -0.68% | | | 华北 L05基差 | 200 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The demand expectations for both rebar and hot-rolled coil are poor, and their prices are fluctuating at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,100 yuan/ton and 3,210 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of -1.21% and -1.26%. The trading volumes were 1,627,530 hands and 576,048 hands, and the open interests were 2,017,637 hands and 1,332,134 hands, with open interest changes of -15,299 hands and -28,759 hands [2]. - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing decreased by 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 and HC2510 increased by 9 yuan/ton and 7 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of RB2505 - RB2510 and HC2505 - HC2510 increased by 14 yuan/ton and 7 yuan/ton respectively, while the spread of HC2505 - RB2505 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, and the spread of HC2510 - RB2510 increased by 2 yuan/ton. The spot coil-to-rebar spread increased by 1 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Production and Inventory Data (April 25)**: Rebar production decreased by 0.11 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 3.10 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 3.13 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 30.83 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.86 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 50.41 million tons. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 13.88 million tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 0.20 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 22.39 million tons [3]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profit Data (January - March)**: The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1,509.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Among them, the profit of state-owned holding enterprises was 559.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; the profit of joint-stock enterprises was 1,110.15 billion yuan, an increase of 0.1%; the profit of foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises was 388.35 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%; the profit of private enterprises was 370.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [-2, 2], where -2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [5].

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