中国基金报记者 泰勒 【导读】低开高走，发生了什么事情？ 大家好，今天的市场，突然变盘，低开高走，三大指数集体收涨，相信大家都挣到钱，可以安心过周末了。 按照惯例，我们今天也来分析一下大涨的原因。 A股变盘，低开高走 12月12日，市场全天探底回升，三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘， 沪指涨0.41%，深成指涨0.84%，创业板指涨0.97%。 市场共 2683只个股上涨，83只个股涨停，2612只个股下跌。 商业航天延续强势，超捷股份、航天动力等涨停。 | 代码 | 名标 | | 涨幅% | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 920576 | 天力复合 | R | 30.00 | 60.84 | | 300286 | 国资材料 | R | 20.02 | 28.00 | | 301006 | 超捷股份 | R | 20.00 | 96.78 | | 301079 | 邵阳液压 | R | 19.98 | 30.86 | | 300562 | 通光线缆 | . | 19.98 | 14.41 | | 688239 | 航宇科技 | ાર | 19.85 | 67.20 | ...

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，习近平总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话。会议期间，部 分与会同志接受记者采访，畅谈对会议精神的学习认识和下一步工作打算。中国人民银行行长潘功胜表 示，党的二十届四中全会为"十五五"时期规划了发展蓝图，这次会议为"十五五"良好开局、做好明年经 济工作制定了科学、清晰的指引。中国人民银行将认真贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话精神，继续实施 好适度宽松的货币政策，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机，为经济稳定增长和金融市场稳定运行创 造良好的货币金融环境；防范化解重点领域金融风险，维护金融稳定；积极践行习近平总书记提出的全 球治理倡议，推动完善全球金融治理，深化金融改革和高水平对外开放，维护国家金融安全。（新华 社） 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，习近平总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话。会议期间，部 分与会同志接受记者采访，畅谈对会议精神的学习认识和下一步工作打算。中国人民银行行长潘功胜表 示，党的二十届四中全会为"十五五"时期规划了发展蓝图，这次会议为"十五五"良好开局、做好明年经 济工作制定了科学、清晰的指引。中国人民银行将认真贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话精神 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable economic growth and financial market through appropriate monetary policy and risk management [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on the strength, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for economic stability [1] - The central bank aims to prevent and resolve financial risks in key areas to maintain financial stability [1] Group 2: Global Financial Governance - The conference highlighted the need to actively practice the global governance initiatives proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping, promoting improvements in global financial governance [1] - There is a call for deepening financial reforms and high-level opening-up to safeguard national financial security [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing, with significant guidance from General Secretary Xi Jinping, aims to set a clear direction for economic work in the upcoming year and the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2] Group 1: Economic Policy - The People's Bank of China, represented by Governor Pan Gongsheng, emphasized the importance of implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and financial market stability [2] - The conference provided a scientific and clear directive for a good start to the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aligning with the development blueprint set by the 20th National Congress [2] Group 2: Financial Stability - The focus will be on preventing and mitigating financial risks in key areas to maintain overall financial stability [2] - The People's Bank of China will actively promote global governance initiatives proposed by Xi Jinping, aiming to enhance global financial governance and deepen financial reforms [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weakening [2] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Oscillating weakly [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [6] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [6] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [6] - Pulp: Oscillating strongly [8] - Offset paper: Oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Trading in a range [8] - Palm oil: Trading in a range [8] - Rapeseed oil: Trading in a range [8] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [9] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [9] - Live pigs: Weakening [9] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [11] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The main trend of the iron ore market remains "loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories". The price of iron ore will oscillate weakly, and there may be opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - The supply of coking coal and coke faces short - term pressure, and the prices are weakening. However, there is support at the bottom [2]. - The downstream demand for rebar is sluggish, and the price is oscillating. The steel price depends on production cuts and the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - The price of glass is weakening, and its future trend depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. - The central economic work conference sets a tone for next year's economic policy. The stock index futures market shows different trends, and the bond market is consolidating [4]. - The price of gold is oscillating strongly, supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, etc. The short - term factors are the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment [6]. - The log market has weak demand and is oscillating at the bottom. The pulp market is oscillating strongly, affected by cost and demand [6][8]. - The price of edible oils is trading in a range, affected by factors such as demand, inventory, and production [8]. - The price of soybean meal and related products is oscillating, affected by factors such as global supply, trade, and domestic demand [8][9]. - The price of live pigs is weakening, with stable supply and limited terminal - demand growth [9]. - The price of rubber is oscillating weakly, with supply affected by weather and demand not strong enough [11]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF in the polyester market show different trends, mainly affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the price oscillates weakly. There may be opportunities to short on rebounds after restocking [2]. - **Coal and coke**: In November, Mongolian coal imports are expected to reach a new high this year. The second round of coke price cuts has started. The prices are weakening, but there is support at the bottom [2]. - **Rebar**: Downstream demand is low, and the winter - storage restocking has not started. The price is oscillating, and the core lies in steel demand [2]. - **Glass**: The price is weakening. The processing orders are sluggish. The inventory is decreasing but still higher than the same period last year. The future trend depends on cold - repair progress [2]. Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The central economic work conference emphasizes positive fiscal and monetary policies. The stock index shows different trends, and the market is affected by factors such as industry capital flow and economic policies [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is flat, and the market is in a small - scale rebound after a net capital withdrawal [4]. - **Automobile and real estate**: In November, automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicles had strong growth. In 2026, more real - estate policies are expected, and the decline in the new - commodity - housing sales area is expected to narrow [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Their prices are oscillating strongly, supported by central bank gold purchases, "de - dollarization", geopolitical risks, and increased physical - gold demand in China. The short - term factors are the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment [6]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The port shipment volume and national出库 volume have increased, but the demand is in the off - season. The supply pressure may gradually decrease, and the price is oscillating at the bottom [6][8]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is rising, and the cost support is increasing. However, the demand is not strong, and the price may return to the supply - demand fundamentals after the digestion of positive news [8]. - **Offset paper**: The spot price is stable. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Edible oils**: The demand for soybean oil has uncertainties. The palm - oil inventory in Malaysia is high, and the domestic oil supply is abundant. The price is expected to trade in a range [8]. - **Soybean meal and related products**: The global soybean supply is loose. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand has support but also has problems. The price is expected to oscillate [8][9]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight shows different trends in the north and south. The terminal - demand growth is limited, and the price is expected to decline further [9]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply in different regions is affected by weather. The demand is not strong enough, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11]. Polyester - **PX**: The supply is high, and the demand is boosted. The price is in wide - range oscillation [11]. - **PTA**: The cost is unstable, and the short - term supply - demand improves, but the long - term trend is weak. The price follows the cost [11]. - **MEG**: The long - term inventory pressure exists, and the short - term price is weakly oscillating [11]. - **PR and PF**: PR may stop falling and stabilize, and PF is at a low - price level [11].

以"五个必须"引领做好新形势下经济工作。"五个必须"即必须充分 挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活" 又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来 应对外部挑战。会议把"必须充分挖掘经济潜能"放在首位，显示了"在质 的有效提升上取得更大突破"的决心。 2025 年 12 月 12 日 宏观研究/事件点评 投资要点： 【山证宏观】2024 年中央经济工作会议 事件：12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，会议总结 2025 年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。 宏观 着力推进质的有效提升 ——2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议解读 分析师： 我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，实现向新向优发展。2025 年我国经 济增速、居民就业、收入相对稳定，企业利润波动修复，资本市场稳健运行。 结构上看，最终消费支出对 GDP 的拉动较为平稳，其中"以旧换新"政策 驱动的耐用品消费增速领跑，服务消费则展现出更强的韧性；设备更新投资 及高端化转型带动的高技术领域投资是支撑制造业投资的核心。同时，房地 产、地方政府债务等重点领域风险化 ...

"在有效需求不足、物价持续低迷的背景下，明年降准降息可期，结构性货币政策工具有望持续发 力。"管涛表示。此外，通过完善利率自律机制、综合治理金融体系的内卷式竞争、建立健全做好金 融"五篇大文章"的体制机制，能够引导金融资源更多支持科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，进一步畅 通货币政策传导。 中央经济工作会议还指出，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 "在内外部不确定因素综合影响下，明年人民币汇率有望延续双向波动态势。"管涛表示，这是中央经济 工作会议连续第四年强调"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"，体现了既要防范汇率过度贬 值、也要防范汇率过度升值的政策取向，有助于遏制外汇市场的顺周期单边羊群效应，为明年推动经济 持续回升创造一个平稳的外汇金融环境。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 范子萌）中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促 进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保 持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重 点领域。 对此，中银证券全球首席经济学家管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [2][3][4]. Fiscal Policy Direction - The conference reiterates the need for a proactive fiscal policy while highlighting the importance of fiscal management and addressing local fiscal difficulties [2][4]. - The expected budget deficit for 2026 is likely to remain at 4%, corresponding to approximately 5.9 trillion yuan, with local government special bonds potentially increasing to 4.5 trillion yuan [3]. Policy Stability and Optimization - The tone of the meeting indicates a shift from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," suggesting a focus on maintaining stability in fiscal policy rather than aggressive increases in spending [4][5]. - The "Two New" policies are expected to continue, with a greater emphasis on service consumption and significant projects aligned with the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]. Tax System and Local Government Revenue - There is a call to improve the local tax system, with potential adjustments to the proportion of shared taxes to stabilize local government revenues [6]. - The meeting highlights the need for a flexible monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize prices, with tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions being considered [6][7]. Debt Management and Risk Mitigation - The focus on debt management includes optimizing debt restructuring methods and addressing risks associated with local government financing platforms [8]. - The scale of hidden local government debt is expected to decrease significantly, with estimates suggesting it could fall to around 6.5 to 7 trillion yuan by the end of the year [8]. Government Debt Issuance - Predictions indicate that in 2026, the total issuance of special government bonds could reach 2 trillion yuan, alongside 2 trillion yuan for replacing hidden debts, leading to an overall increase in government debt of approximately 14.4 trillion yuan [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of financial support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, indicating a clear direction for financial work in 2026 [1][3]. Financial Policy Direction - The conference highlights the need for a proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, while optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and addressing local fiscal difficulties [5][6]. - It is projected that the new government debt scale for 2026 may increase to approximately 12.5 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate maintained at around 4.0%, reflecting an increase of about 200 billion yuan from the previous year [6]. Monetary Policy Approach - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with flexible use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [6][7]. - The emphasis on price levels has increased, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in November, indicating a potential for further monetary easing [6]. Key Economic Tasks - The conference identifies eight key tasks for economic work, with a focus on domestic demand as the primary driver for economic growth in 2026 [10]. - Specific actions include implementing measures to boost consumption, such as increasing funding for consumption from 300 billion yuan to 500 billion yuan, and expanding support for service consumption [11]. Investment and Innovation - The conference aims to stabilize investment by increasing central budget investment and optimizing the use of special bonds, which is expected to enhance market expectations and restore overall investment willingness [11]. - Emphasis is placed on innovation-driven growth, with a focus on developing a technology finance system that supports technological innovation and industry development [12]. Financial Institution Reform - The conference calls for deepening the reform of small and medium financial institutions to enhance their competitiveness and mitigate risks, which is a crucial part of the financial supply-side structural reform [12][13]. - Specific measures include promoting mergers and restructuring of rural small and medium banks to improve their service adaptability and competitiveness [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized the importance of economic work in the context of national rejuvenation and modernization, with a focus on high-quality development and effective macroeconomic policies [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Strategy - The conference highlighted the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to address external shocks and internal risks, maintaining policy strength and continuity [4]. - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented to support stable economic growth and financial market stability [4]. - The "Five Musts" were introduced as essential guidelines for economic work, emphasizing the need to explore economic potential, combine policy support with reform innovation, and balance investment in physical and human capital [2][3]. Group 2: Regional Implementation and Development - Local leaders, such as the Mayor of Shanghai and the Secretary of Qinghai Province, expressed commitment to implementing the conference's directives, focusing on enhancing domestic demand, fostering new productive forces, and promoting high-quality development [2][3]. - Specific regional strategies include developing modern industrial systems, integrating renewable energy with traditional industries, and prioritizing ecological and green development [3][6]. Group 3: Key Tasks for Economic Work - The conference outlined eight key tasks for the upcoming year, including strengthening domestic markets, driving innovation, enhancing high-quality development, and ensuring coordinated regional growth [5]. - Emphasis was placed on addressing current development challenges while maintaining a long-term focus on stability and growth [5].