21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 北京报道 中央政治局会议定调，2026年的货币政策基调仍是适度宽松。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 "此外，本次会议还重点强调了'提质增效'，"芦哲认为，这意味着2026年货币政策将更加注重在多目标间寻求平衡，既要保持流动性充裕和融 资条件适度宽松，也要防范资产价格大幅波动，并引导金融资源更多流向国民经济薄弱环节，提升货币政策传导的精准性与有效性。 青岛银行首席经济学家刘晓曙向记者表示，12月中央政治局会议中的货币政策定调呈现出两个"不变"与三大"调整"。"不变"主要体现在两个方 面：一是延续"适度宽松"的总体基调，降准降息等总量型工具仍有运用空间；二是结构性工具支持重点领域的导向未发生改变。 对于适度宽松的货币政策如何落实，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在不久前的2025金融街论坛年会上已有所表态。潘功胜当时表示，央行将继续坚 持支持性的货币政策立场，实施好适度宽松的货币政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to economic work in 2026, focusing on domestic and international economic dynamics, and aims for quality and reasonable growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Economic Performance - The meeting reports that the economic growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1] - The overall economic operation is stable, with steady progress in new productive forces and significant advancements in reform and opening up [1] Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting highlights the importance of a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, continuing the "wide fiscal + wide monetary" approach [3] - Emphasis is placed on increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, indicating flexibility in macroeconomic policies based on actual economic growth and price levels [3] International Trade - The meeting underscores the significance of domestic and international dual circulation as the main driving force for economic work in the coming year, especially in light of increasing protectionism globally [2] - Despite uncertainties in international trade, China's exports showed resilience, with a cumulative growth of 6.2% in the first eleven months [2] Key Tasks - Eight key tasks have been outlined to leverage the positive momentum from the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on investment to stimulate consumption and stabilize prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the Central Political Bureau meeting in December as a precursor to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, outlining the economic policy direction for 2026 [2][3] - The meeting acknowledged the overall stability and progress of China's economy in 2025, highlighting the steady development of new productive forces and effective risk mitigation in key areas [3][4] - The policy focus for 2026 will be on maintaining stability while promoting quality and efficiency, with a commitment to more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [3][4][5] Group 2 - The meeting reiterated the need for a combination of stable growth and quality improvement, indicating a shift in policy focus from merely stabilizing growth to optimizing structure [4][5] - Analysts expect that the macroeconomic policies for 2026 will be more forward-looking, aiming to lay a foundation for high-quality development over the next five years [4][5] - The emphasis on "integrating stock and incremental policies" suggests a coordinated approach across various departments and regions to enhance policy effectiveness [5][6] Group 3 - The three main policy principles for 2026 include implementing more proactive macroeconomic policies, enhancing the foresight and coordination of policies, and continuing with active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [7][8] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate of around 4%, with an increase in special bonds and long-term special government bonds to support new productive forces and social welfare [8][9] - Monetary policy is anticipated to see further reductions in deposit and policy interest rates, with potential cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates to support economic stability [8][9][10]

国债期货日报 2025/12/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 107.980 | 0.12% T主力成交量 | 75883 | -22485↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.785 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | 57038 | -15253↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.430 | 0.02% TS主力成交量 | 30157 | -7733↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.590 | 0.45% TL主力成交量 | 110374 | -64954↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2512价差 | -0.16 | -0.10↓ T03-TL03价差 | -4.61 | -0.28↓ | | | T2603-2512价差 | -0.18 | +0.02↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.20 | -0.03↓ | | | TF2603-2512价差 | 0.00 | -0.02↓ TS03-T03价差 | -5 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Overview - The meeting emphasized the "steady progress" principle, expanding its meaning to include national security and development autonomy alongside economic growth stability[2] - The core logic of "stability" now encompasses the ability to respond to external shocks, particularly in the context of international economic competition[7] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to exceed 4%, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy approach[3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - Despite a shift towards "moderate easing," the use of price-based tools like interest rate cuts will be cautious due to constraints from the RMB exchange rate and bank net interest margins[10] - Future interest rate cuts are likely to follow an asymmetric model, prioritizing deposit rate reductions to protect banks' interest margins while lowering financing costs for the real economy[10] Group 3: Policy Goals and Implementation - The meeting outlined eight policy goals, including domestic demand leadership, innovation-driven growth, and risk prevention, indicating a targeted approach rather than broad stimulus measures[9] - The focus will be on enhancing efficiency and long-term economic growth rather than short-term boosts, ensuring a sustainable economic environment[9]

12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 多家券商首席经济学家分享了最新的学习体会。券商预计，2025年顺利实现发展目标，2026年仍需保持较高的 目标设定，兼顾"硬实力"与"软实力"，统筹内外，优化存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，着力创造就业保"四 稳"，构建流畅内循环、强韧性的内需市场，持之以恒改善民生；政策实施层面注重政策落地后的持续推进增 强实效，政策部署更重衔接协同集成效应。 财政和货币政策仍有较大空间 会议指出，"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"。对此，浙商证券首席经济学家李超表示， 结合积极的财政政策基调以及中央预算稳定调节基金的特点，2026年存在小幅提高赤字率的可能性，同时综合 考虑结转结余，则2026年广义财政力度或将下降。预计2026年赤字率可能设定为4.0%—4.2%左右，对应赤字 规模为5.89万亿元至6.19万亿元，广义赤字规模约为11.79万亿元至12.09万亿元。 兴业证券首席经济学家王涵表示，此次会议仍将"扩大内需"工作放在首位，其次新增表述"优化供给"，"坚持 创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"，相比于7月会议而言，此次会议将产业相关内容提 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - Copper and zinc prices have rebounded recently; chemical product prices are slightly fluctuating; international crude oil prices are rising, while liquefied natural gas prices are oscillating downward [2] Midstream - The operating rates of chemical products have collectively declined; the coal consumption of power plants is at the median level in three years; the operating rate of road asphalt has decreased [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third-tier cities have recently rebounded collectively; the number of domestic and international flights has decreased [4] Key Industry News Production Industry - Chinese official Ling Ji held video talks with German and European automobile industry associations, discussing China - Germany and China - Europe automobile industry and supply - chain cooperation, and hoping to resolve the electric vehicle anti - subsidy case [1] - On December 8, the National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices, benefiting private car owners and logistics enterprises [1] Service Industry - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8, stating that in 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [1] Key Industry Price Indicators (as of December 8) Agriculture - The spot price of corn is 2238.6 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.58%; the spot price of eggs is 6.5 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.76%; the spot price of palm oil is 8726.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.65%; the spot price of cotton is 15033.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.36%; the average wholesale price of pork is 17.7 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 0.40% [36] Non - ferrous Metals - The spot price of copper is 92243.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 3.39%; the spot price of zinc is 23100.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 2.48%; the spot price of aluminum is 21933.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.89%; the spot price of nickel is 120400.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.19%; another spot price of aluminum is 17300.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.84% [36] Black Metals - The spot price of rebar is 3213.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.01%; the spot price of iron ore is 805.8 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.36%; the spot price of wire rod is 3395.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [36] Others - The spot price of glass is 13.8 yuan/square meter, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.72%; the spot price of natural rubber is 14843.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.88%; the China Plastic City price index is 766.0, with a year - on - year increase of 0.05% [36] Energy - The spot price of WTI crude oil is 60.1 dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year increase of 2.61%; the spot price of Brent crude oil is 63.8 dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year increase of 2.20%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas is 3874.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.82%; the coal price is 809.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.98% [36] Chemicals - The spot price of PTA is 4687.8 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.32%; the spot price of polyethylene is 6845.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.87%; the spot price of urea is 1720.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; the spot price of soda ash is 1205.7 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% [36] Real Estate and Building Materials - The national cement price index is 135.4, with a year - on - year increase of 0.01%; the building materials composite index is 115.5 points, with a year - on - year increase of 0.15%; the national concrete price index is 90.4 points, with a year - on - year increase of 0.00% [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 8th, all the current-month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF increased by 0.76%, IH by 0.39%, IC by 0.95%, and IM by 0.94% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 4,291 lots, IH by 6,787 lots, IC by 24,924 lots, and IM by 50,024 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 4,343 lots, IH by 3,064 lots, IC by 11,667 lots, and IM by 20,325 lots [2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data - **IF Futures**: The closing price of IF2512 is 4,613.2, up 0.76% with a basis of -8.55, trading volume of 76,082 lots (down 8,672 lots), and open interest of 132,821 lots (down 10,475 lots). For other contracts, similar data are provided [1] - **IH Futures**: The closing price of IH2512 is 3,015, up 0.39% with a basis of -4.36, trading volume of 31,875 lots (up 6,694 lots), and open interest of 55,867 lots (up 3,888 lots). Other contracts' data are also presented [1] - **IC Futures**: The closing price of IC2512 is 7,144, up 0.95% with a basis of -28.37, trading volume of 63,355 lots (up 19,994 lots), and open interest of 116,565 lots (up 14,425 lots). Data for other contracts are given [1] - **IM Futures**: The closing price of IM2512 is 7,380.4, up 0.94% with a basis of -42.65, trading volume of 104,973 lots (up 41,964 lots), and open interest of 168,647 lots (up 20,556 lots). Data for other contracts are included [1] 3.2 Top 20 Member Positions - **IF Contracts**: For IF2512, the long positions decreased by 8,881, and the short positions decreased by 7,839. For other contracts, the changes in long and short positions are also provided [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2512, the long positions decreased by 3,455, and the short positions decreased by 3,329. Data for other contracts are presented [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2512, the long positions decreased by 12,343, and the short positions decreased by 11,116. Information for other contracts is given [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2512, the long positions decreased by 15,311, and the short positions decreased by 15,806. Data for other contracts are included [5] 3.3 Important Drivers - The Politburo meeting pointed out that next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and enhance the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies [7] - The regulatory authorities will guide industry institutions to adhere to the development direction of functionality, intensiveness, specialization, and specialization, and appropriately "relax the restrictions" on high-quality institutions [7] - In November, China's passenger car sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% to 2.24 million units. The decline was mainly due to a 22% drop in fuel vehicles and the withdrawal of subsidy policies. New energy vehicles accounted for 58.9%, a record high, but the growth rate of 4.2% was not enough to offset the decline. Exports were a bright spot, with a 52.4% increase in November. Institutions expect new energy vehicle exports to increase by 40% to 2.83 million units next year [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The Central Politburo meeting emphasized that the economic work in 2026 should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and enhance the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies [2]. - The import in China shows a certain repair trend, while the growth rate of exports has declined slightly in the past two months, which is in line with expectations due to the high base of exports in the same period last year, weak overseas demand, and the overdraft effect of pre - export on demand [3]. - The A - share market closed higher on the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.6% [4]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, increase support for innovative consumption, focus on the reform and re - balancing themes established in the new five - year plan, and reiterate the stability of the real estate market [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Policy - The 2026 fiscal policy may continue the high - financing trend of government bonds, and the deficit rate may increase. The monetary policy will focus on improving traditional mechanisms, and large - scale interest - rate cuts are expected to be cautious. There are policy expectations for promoting consumption, and innovation, people's livelihood, and green transformation will be long - term policy orientations [2]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may set the GDP growth target for 2026 in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on innovation, consumption, and real estate market stability [9]. 3.2 Trade Data - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's cumulative export in US dollars increased by 5.4% year - on - year, with a monthly increase of 5.9%. The cumulative increase in imports was - 0.6%, and the monthly increase was 1.9% [3]. 3.3 Financial Market - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.6%, and the two - market trading volume increased by 3108.75 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day [4]. - International market: The South Korean Composite Index rose 1.34%, the Wande All - A Index rose 1.04%, the Russian RTS Index fell 1.75%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.23%, the US three major stock indexes closed down, the German DAX rose slightly by 0.07%, the French CAC40 fell slightly by 0.08%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.23% [4]. - Interest rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.8526%, with a change of + 0.4BP, and the average prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 on the day were 1.3718% and 1.4940% respectively [5]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - In November, the sales volume of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 33% year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in the first 6 days of December was 34%. The contract sales volume of top - 100 developers in November decreased by 37% year - on - year, and the number of second - hand housing listings in 50 cities increased by 10% year - on - year [7]. - Vanke is seeking bondholders' approval to postpone the repayment of two domestic bonds worth 200 million yuan and 370 million yuan respectively, and the bondholders' meetings are scheduled for December 10 and 22 [8]. - UBS expects that in November, the year - on - year decline in real estate sales will expand (down 20 - 25% year - on - year), and real estate investment will continue to contract deeply (down 23% year - on - year) [10]. 3.5 Economic Forecast - UBS expects that in 2026, the GDP growth target will be in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and the GDP growth rate will fall to 4.5%. The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies [9]. - For the November official data, UBS expects that real estate sales will decline more, real estate investment will contract deeply, infrastructure investment decline will narrow slightly, retail and export sales will improve slightly, industrial production growth will slow down, official social financing and credit growth may slightly decrease, CPI may improve, and PPI decline may narrow slightly [10].

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货12月8日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 112.730 | 112.600 | 112.300 | 112.300 | -0.430 | -0.38 | 132 | 5681 | -590 | | TL2603 | 112.570 | 112.410 | 112.240 | 112 ...