12月11日，尾盘农业银行突然暴拉，彻底点燃了盘后情绪，纷纷灵魂发问：为什么？ 截至收盘，大家发现，农业银行在尾盘10分钟真的是一柱擎天，从水下0.7%直线拉升至水上1.41%，仅尾盘就有1亿资金杀入。 对于农业银行暴拉，对此股民纷纷调侃：这是挖到锂矿了？农行这是要太空建分行了？ a股喜欢映射美股，农行就是存储龙头，映射美光；好像把spacex 的订单抢光了，尾盘爆拉；成功收购英伟达，成为世界第一公司； 农行：再给我十分钟，我能把指数拉红！ | | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 登加 九转 画线 工具 안 | | | 工商银行 1 | | 601398 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | स्त्रे | 8.00 | | | | 601398[工商银行] 13:40 价 7.95 涨跌 0.01(0.13%) 均价 7.94 成交量 4491 成交金额 356万 | | ...

省委常委会扩大会议传达学习中央经济工作会议精神 坚定扛牢经济大省挑大梁责任担当 努力为全国大局多作贡献 （来源：山东工商联） （来源：山东工商联） 省委常委会扩大会议传达学习中央经济工作会议精神 坚定扛牢经济大省挑大梁责任担当 努力为全国大局多作贡献 12月12日，省委常委会召开扩大会议，传达学习习近平总书记在中央经济工作会议上的重要讲话和李强总理总结讲话，研究我省贯彻落实意见。 12月12日，省委常委会召开扩大会议，传达学习习近平总书记在中央经济工作会议上的重要讲话和李强总理总结讲话，研究我省贯彻落实意见。 省委书记林武主持会议并讲话。 会议指出，这次中央经济工作会议，是在"十四五"即将圆满收官、"十五五"即将开启的重要历史节点上，召开的一次十分重要的会议，对于我们坚定信 心、奋发有为，实现"十五五"良好开局具有重大而深远的意义。习近平总书记的重要讲话，全面总结成绩，深入分析形势，科学谋划目标，系统部署任 务，深刻阐述了一系列事关经济社会发展的重大理论和实践问题，丰富和发展了习近平经济思想，为我们做好工作提供了根本遵循。李强总理就贯彻落实 习近平总书记重要讲话精神、做好明年经济工作提出要求，具有很强的针对性 ...

免责声明 本研究报告由国投期货有限公司撰写,研究报告中所提供的信息仅供参考。报告根据国际和行业通行的准则，以合 法渠道获得这些信息,尽可能保证可靠、准确和完整,但并不保证报告所述信息的准确性和完整性。本报告不能作 为投资研究决策的依据,不能作为道义的、责任的和法律的依据或者凭证,无论是否已经明示或者暗示。国投期货 有限公司将随时补充、更正和修订有关信息,但不保证及时发布。对于本报告所提供信息所导致的任何直接的或者 间接的投资盈亏后果不承担任何责任。 都泓佳 Z0017641 黄恬 Z0021089 表:近三次中央经济工作会议政策要点梳理 | 2025中央经济工作会议 | 2024中央经济工作会议 | 2023中央经济工作会议 | 经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展， | 现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革 | 经济社会发展主要目标任务即将顺利完 | 开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解 | | | | | | 成。当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响 | 取得积极进展， ...

来源：进出口银行 12月12日，进出口银行在京召开党委（扩大）会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，按照全国金融系 统工作会议的要求，研究部署贯彻落实举措。党委书记、董事长陈怀宇主持会议并讲话，其他党委成员 出席会议。 会议认为，习近平总书记在中央经济工作会议上的重要讲话思想深邃、内涵丰富，站在强国建设、民族 复兴的战略高度，深刻洞察国内国际形势，对做好经济工作的规律性认识不断深化，对"十五五"开局之 年经济工作的战略部署指向明确，是马克思主义政治经济学中国化的最新成果，为开创中国式现代化新 局面提供了根本遵循。 会议指出，今年是"十四五"规划收官之年，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎 难而上、奋力拼搏，推动中国经济巨轮无惧风雨、破浪前行，展现强大韧性和活力。全行上下要深刻领 会今年和"十四五"时期我国经济社会发展取得的巨大成就，深刻领悟"两个确立"的决定性意义，增 强"四个意识"、坚定"四个自信"、做到"两个维护"。 会议要求，要把学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神作为当前和今后一个时期的重大政治任务，准确把握经 济工作面临的形势和主要目标任务，紧紧围绕金融工作主线，找准进出口银行工作的结合点和 ...

扫码文末"投小圈" 加入行业交流群 文章来源：张明宏观金融研究 作者：张明 01 对经济工作的认识与体会 2024年中央经济工作会议：必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系，形成既"放得活"又"管得住"的经济 秩序；必须统筹好总供给和总需求的关系；必须统筹好培育新动能和更新旧动能的关系；必须统筹好做 优增量和盘活存量的关系；必须统筹好提升质量和做大总量的关系。 2025年中央经济工作会议：必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到 既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 解读 在2025年，中国政府多次强调"投资于物和投资于人紧密结合"， 未来与教育、培训、医疗、养老的投 资可能会明显增加。"充分挖掘经济潜能"和"苦练内功"本质上是一脉相承的，如何扩大内需尤其是提振 消费仍是当务之急。 02 经济工作基调 2024年中央经济工作会议：更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，扩大国内需求，推动 科技创新和产业创新融合发展，稳住楼市股市，防范化解重点领域风险和外部冲击，稳定预期、激发活 力，推动经济持续回升向好，不断提高人民生活水平，保 ...

【导读】八大知名券商首席解读中央经济工作会议 中国基金报 券商报道组 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济 形势，部署2026年经济工作。会议提出 "五个必须" ，对2026年工作提出八项重点任务。 中央经济工作会议是判断当下经济形势和定调第二年宏观经济政策最权威的风向标。 为 更好 地学习贯彻中央经济工作精神， 中国基金报记者采访了中信证券宏观与政策首席分析师杨 帆、华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘、广发证券首席经济学家郭磊、申万宏源首席经济学家 赵伟、国信证券策略首席分析师王开、中金公司首席宏观经济分析师张文朗、中信建投宏观 首席分析师周君芝，以及粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒。 对于五个新"必须"，受访券商首席表示，本次中央经济工作会议提出五个新"必须"，延续并 深化了经济工作的规律性认识。与2024年会议提出的五个"统筹"相比，2025年会议更突出 经济潜能挖掘与政策、改革的协同发力，同时强化内需稳定性保障，政策导向更贴合当前发 展形势。2026年政策的"跨周期"特征将更明显。 关于2026年经济增长，受访券商首席认为，会议提出"不断巩固拓展经济 ...

中央经济工作会议是确定未来一年工作重点和方向的会议，对经济走势和资本市 场走势具有关键影响，因而受到广泛关注。而 2025 年 12 月 11 日公布的今年中 央经济工作会议全文，是判断明年经济工作重点的重要窗口。 坚持稳中求进，做好统筹工作。相对于去年，今年会议对经济的判断更为乐观，相 对于去年强调国内需求不足、部分企业生产经营困难等，今年会议表述为经济发 展中老问题、新挑战依然不少……国内供强需弱矛盾突出。对明年政策的总基调 继续确定为稳中求进，同时要求统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争、统筹发展和 安全等。作为"十五五"开局之年，明年需要实现良好开局。 货币政策需更注重经济稳定与物价，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。货 币政策方面，会议定调依然是适度宽松，这与去年中央经济工作会议一致。但将经 济增长和稳定物价放在更为重要位置。会议要求把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理 回升作为货币政策的重要考量。这意味着在当前物价相对偏低压力之下，货币政 策可能加大宽松，以推动物价的回升。在具体政策方面强调灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种政策工具。虽然去年中央经济工作会议也有适时降准降息的表述，今年 表述并未更积极，但考虑到当前 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference has established a clear policy blueprint for China's economic direction, emphasizing a "systematic thinking" and "effectiveness-oriented" approach to economic policy [2][3] Group 1: Economic Policy Focus - The conference highlights a shift from broad policy coverage to targeted and precise measures, integrating existing and new policies to address economic challenges [2] - Specific institutional designs and action plans have been introduced to tackle issues such as consumption restrictions, corporate debt, and real estate market fluctuations [2] Group 2: Identifying Challenges and Opportunities - The conference acknowledges the achievements of China's economy while also recognizing significant challenges, including external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances [3] - A consensus has been built around the long-term positive outlook for the economy, despite acknowledging transitional pains [3] Group 3: Practical Experience and Methodology - Five key principles for economic work have been identified: maximizing economic potential, balancing policy support with reform, ensuring effective governance, integrating investments in goods and people, and strengthening internal capabilities to face external challenges [4] - These principles provide a methodological framework for addressing economic governance and avoiding fragmentation [4] Group 4: Addressing Core Economic Issues - The conference identifies three main focus areas: expanding domestic demand, fostering innovation and reform, and managing risks in key sectors such as real estate and local government debt [5] - Measures to combat "involution" in competition and address deep-seated economic contradictions have been emphasized [5] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Expectations - The conference promotes a combination of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, aiming for policy continuity while optimizing implementation strategies [6] - A focus on improving policy coherence and managing expectations is highlighted to stabilize market confidence [6] Group 6: Enhancing Domestic Demand - Specific actions to boost consumption include implementing a "Consumption Promotion Special Action" and a "Rural Residents Income Increase Plan," aimed at removing unreasonable restrictions and enhancing service consumption potential [7] - Investment strategies will focus on increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage to stimulate private investment [9] Group 7: Innovation and Reform Initiatives - The conference outlines plans for establishing three major international technology innovation centers and enhancing intellectual property protection in emerging fields [10] - A focus on integrating technology and industry innovation is emphasized, with a call for supportive policies for venture capital and long-term funding for early-stage projects [10] Group 8: Social Welfare and Employment - The conference emphasizes the importance of social welfare measures, including stabilizing employment for graduates and migrant workers, and enhancing social security for flexible employment [12] - Policies aimed at improving education, healthcare, and childcare support are highlighted to address public concerns and enhance living standards [12] Group 9: Risk Management Strategies - A targeted approach to risk management is proposed, particularly in the real estate sector and local government debt, with specific measures to control inventory and optimize debt restructuring [13][14] - The focus is on preventing systemic risks while addressing core risk areas through structured and effective measures [13] Group 10: Capital Market Development - The conference calls for continued deepening of capital market reforms to enhance market attractiveness and inclusivity, with a focus on long-term investment and institutional improvements [15][16] - Emphasis is placed on creating a multi-layered and differentiated market system to support various stages of enterprise development [16]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic policies and their implications for various sectors, particularly focusing on the real estate market, investment strategies, and monetary and fiscal policies in China. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Policy Shift**: The central economic work conference emphasizes a transition from extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments to normalized management, focusing on cross-cycle adjustments, indicating a paradigm shift in policy [1][9]. 2. **Real Estate Market Measures**: Specific measures for the real estate market include controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and improving supply quality. The reform of the housing provident fund system is highlighted, aiming to stabilize the market [1][3][4]. 3. **Investment Focus**: The conference stresses the need to stabilize investment, particularly in infrastructure projects, urban renewal, and quality housing construction, to counteract the decline in investment growth [1][2][7]. 4. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: While the possibility of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions is mentioned, the emphasis is on flexible and efficient application, suggesting limited room for significant cuts [1][6][10]. 5. **Fiscal Policy Projections**: Fiscal policy is expected to maintain necessary deficits, with a projected increase in fiscal spending of 6% to 7% in 2025, primarily to support infrastructure and consumption [1][2][5]. 6. **Future Demand Drivers**: Potential demand growth is anticipated in real estate, infrastructure, urban renewal, service industry openings, high-end service exports, manufacturing exports, and consumer spending [1][7]. 7. **Economic Work Background for 2026**: The economic work for 2026 is based on a long-term positive outlook, despite external challenges and domestic supply-demand conflicts, emphasizing the importance of tapping into economic potential [1][8]. 8. **Supply-Side Structural Reforms**: The focus on supply-side structural reforms is reiterated, aiming to optimize supply and activate existing resources, indicating a strategic shift from previous years [1][11]. 9. **Risk Prevention Measures**: Risk prevention priorities have shifted, with a reduced emphasis on risk management compared to previous years, reflecting a more optimistic view on internal and external risks [1][12]. 10. **A-Share Market Strategy**: The A-share market strategy is characterized by a moderate tone, with expectations of a spring market rally potentially starting in mid-December, focusing on domestic demand and technology sectors [1][18][19]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Debt and Fiscal Discipline**: The conference highlights the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline, with local debt levels set at 4.9 trillion, ensuring effective use of funds [1][5][13]. 2. **Consumer Expectations**: There is a cautious approach towards consumer spending, with expectations for a more conservative outlook compared to previous plans [1][14]. 3. **Investment in People and Goods**: The integration of investments in goods and people is emphasized as crucial for addressing current economic conditions [1][8]. 4. **Market Environment Stability**: The conference aims to create a stable macroeconomic environment, which is deemed beneficial for stock selection and alpha opportunities [1][23]. 5. **Sector-Specific Recommendations**: Recommendations for growth sectors include aviation equipment, AI chains, and power equipment, while cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals are also highlighted [1][20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape and sector-specific strategies moving forward.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their specific supply - demand situations and external factors [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market price first declined then rose, approaching $4300/ounce. Fundamentals include an increase in US initial jobless claims, Fed's plan to buy short - term Treasuries, and changes in gold inventories. Suggested to go long [1]. - **Silver**: Overseas market is tight, but domestic inventory has been accumulating. Suggested to take profit on long positions [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price hit a new high. Supply of copper ore is tight, and suggested to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: Price of the main contract decreased slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is slightly decreasing. Expected price to oscillate with an upward bias [2]. - **Alumina**: Price of the main contract decreased. Some alumina plants are under maintenance, and electrolytic aluminum plants operate at high load. Before large - scale production cuts, spot price is under pressure, and beware of technical rebounds [2]. - **Silicon**: Price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in a state of anti - involution. Social inventory has been slightly accumulating. Suggested to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Price of the main contract increased. Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. Expected to maintain inventory reduction in December, but the shortage is narrowing. Suggested to wait and see [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Price of the main contract increased. Production is stable, and demand is weakening. Follow the impact of new delivery brands on the market [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand are weak, and there is a significant structural differentiation. Suggested to wait and see and close previous positions [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand are weak, and the market is in a forward - discount structure. Suggested to wait and see and close previous positions [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures valuation is high. Suggested to wait and see and close previous positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean price rose slightly. Supply has a slight reduction in the near - term and large supply in the long - term. Demand has strong US soybean crushing and uncertain exports. Trade the expectation of South American bumper harvest, and domestic market is near - strong and far - weak. Medium - term depends on tariff policy and production [6]. - **Corn**: Futures price is weak, and spot price has fallen. Inventory is low, and there is a short - term supply shortage. However, downstream demand may decline. Spot price is expected to fall, and futures price will oscillate downwards [6]. - **Edible Oils**: Malaysian palm oil price fell. Supply is in seasonal decline, and demand is decreasing. There is no major contradiction in the short - term, and pay attention to production and biodiesel policy [7]. - **Cotton**: US cotton price oscillates narrowly, and domestic cotton price rises. US cotton export sales decline, and Brazilian cotton production is expected to decrease. Domestic textile mills plan to replenish inventory, and high - count yarn sales are good. Suggested to buy on dips [7]. - **Eggs**: Futures price is weak, and spot price is stable. Laying hen inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a state of balance. Futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures price is weak, and spot price varies regionally. Demand is expected to increase seasonally, and supply pressure is relieved. Futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Price of the main contract decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weakening. Social inventory is at a high level. Suggested to short or do reverse arbitrage [8]. - **Glass**: Price of the main contract decreased. Price is falling, and production cuts are increasing. Inventory is decreasing, and demand is weak. Suggested to do reverse arbitrage [8][9]. - **Soda Ash**: Price of the main contract decreased. New plants are put into production, and price is falling. Supply is increasing, and inventory is at a high level. Suggested to short or do reverse arbitrage [9].