Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of avoiding common mistakes in mergers and acquisitions, particularly in the context of the Chinese market and the recent "Evergrande phenomenon" in the automotive industry [1] - It highlights the significant decline in the number of Chinese new energy vehicle companies from over 487 in 2017 to only around 40 by 2024, attributing this to a loss of credibility and rigid debt structures [1] - The article discusses the macroeconomic backdrop of "five lows and one high," suggesting that industry guidance for investment is paramount, especially in light of ongoing policy implementations and unresolved tariff negotiations [1] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing volatility with a lack of clear direction, as risk assets have adjusted following a pause in the trade war, leading to mixed performances across various indices [2] - The investment strategy for 2025 is framed around a "long war—consumption war—guerrilla war" logic, focusing on the interplay between macroeconomic factors and corporate innovation [3] - The article notes that the "guerrilla war" strategy involves tactical operations and theme investments, which are expected to be short-lived but can capitalize on market fluctuations [10] Group 3 - The article outlines the global debt risks, particularly in the context of U.S. and Japanese bonds, which have heightened concerns about economic stability and potential crises [4] - It discusses the nature of government debt, emphasizing that it is a public liability often governed by incomplete contracts, and highlights the significant increase in U.S. federal debt from $19.9 trillion in 2017 to an estimated $36.2 trillion by 2025 [5][6] - The article suggests that while debt can lead to fiscal crises, it can also be managed through economic growth, tax revenue increases, and other financial strategies [7] Group 4 - The article warns of potential short-term debt risks leading up to July 2025, particularly regarding the U.S. debt ceiling and the possibility of technical defaults if Congress fails to act [8] - It posits that the long-term trend for the renminbi is one of appreciation, driven by the need to reduce debt repayment costs through dollar depreciation [9] - The article encourages investors to consider macroeconomic cycles, cultural shifts, and significant policy changes as potential themes for investment opportunities [11][12]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of a theme investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The report outlines two main focuses: quantifying four types of patterns to filter high-odds theme opportunities and constructing trading heat indicators to grasp the peak rhythm of popular themes, with an added observation of leading stock adjustments [2][9]. - The current status of theme indices shows 1 index in a bottoming pattern, 29 in a breakout pattern, 7 in a main rising pattern, and 1 in an acceleration pattern, with notable industries including construction materials, non-ferrous metals, defense, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverages [12][18]. Group 2 - The trading heat for the humanoid robot and Deepseek themes has been declining, with the humanoid robot's trading heat at 78% and Deepseek's at 61% as of May 25, 2025, indicating a significant drop in interest [3][18]. - Leading stocks related to these themes, such as Changsheng Bearing and Daily Interaction, are trading below their 60-day moving average by -12.1% and -13.1% respectively, suggesting a bearish trend [3][18].

微盘股能在今年再创新高，恐怕在很多人的意料之外。 参考中邮证券金工团队的统计，近一季万得微盘股指数上涨17.15%，在38个宽基指数当中排名第1；近一年万得微盘股指数上涨64.6%，在38个宽基 指数当中排名第2。不仅如此，万得微盘股指数还连续5个月出现月度级别的K线上涨。 那么，该如何理解当下再创新高的微盘股呢？ 有人觉得微盘股再创新高的背后，是 流动性充裕 的结构性行情。华创证券的报告中提到，小盘成长风格（科创50、北证50、国证2000、微盘股）有 望受益于更快落地的货币宽松。4月剩余流动性【M2同比-社融存量（剔除股权融资和政府债券）同比】从0.98%升至1.86%。叠加央行优化两项支持 资本市场的货币政策工具、支持中央汇金公司发挥好类"平准基金"两项政策支持股市流动性，当下的小盘成长行情得到进一步加强。 参与人多的地方，关注点就得聚焦到资金面上。事实上，这不是小编第一次涉足微盘股话题，在过去的内容中，我们曾和大家探讨过 （请戳这里） ，微盘股策略赚的不是基本面的钱，而是估值的提升。此前国海证券的报告中通过分解股票收益为PE（市盈率）乘以EPS（每股收益），发现小微 也有人将此归因为 资金属性 所致。 ...

分析师： 周浦寒(S0210524040007) zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 杨逸帆(S0210124110046) yyf30689@hfzq.com.cn 策 略 研 究 华福证券 29 只医药生物主题走出见底形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 29 只医药生物主题走出见底形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速 的主题指数数量分别有 79、38、9、0 只。其中，79 只见底形态的主题指 数多为医药生物行业（29 只）；而 38 只突破形态的主题指数中，行业多 为国防军工（7 只）、通信（5 只）和有色金属（5 只）。9 只主升 ...

Market Overview - The recent US-China trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, leading to a significant rebound in the Vietnamese stock market, while the Chinese export chain still has over 50% of sectors and stocks yet to recover to pre-April levels[3] - The A-share market experienced a recovery to levels seen on April 2, followed by a decline, indicating a loss of market direction post-trade conflict easing[3] - US assets, including US Treasuries and equities, showed notable gains, with the S&P 500 turning positive year-to-date, supported by favorable domestic news such as lower-than-expected inflation in April[3] Economic Outlook - The US economy continues to show signs of weakness in soft data, while hard data remains resilient, indicating a persistent downward trend since Q1 2025[4] - China's economic recovery is hindered by the fading effects of previous policy stimuli, with potential downward pressure on demand as new policies take time to implement[4] - The trade negotiation process is expected to be fraught with uncertainty, reminiscent of the 2018 tariff negotiations, which could lead to further volatility in market sentiment[4][28] Investment Strategy - Current thematic investments are active but are unlikely to regain the momentum seen in Q1 2025 due to a lack of new catalysts in core technology sectors[5] - Recommended sectors for investment include home appliances, food and beverages, cosmetics, and online retail, which are expected to benefit from the establishment of a long-term domestic consumption mechanism[6] - The restructuring of China's foreign trade system may gradually reveal the value of certain advantageous industries, such as machinery and automotive manufacturing[6] Risk Factors - Potential volatility in domestic inventory cycles could exceed expectations, impacting the manufacturing sector's performance[45] - Adjustments in industry structures may take longer than anticipated, leading to premature exposure of mid-term issues and affecting market sentiment[45]

A 股策略周报 20250518 ➢ 当下主题投资活跃，但力度未来很难回到一季度。2025 年 Q1 的主题行业 具备诸多条件的共振：经济基本面预期企稳向上为科技制造业提供了盈利基本 面，而主题行业本身又存在催化，甚至引领了中国资产重估的叙事。当前贸易 冲击阶段平复，但是全球经济在关税冲突前就在放缓的趋势仍未改变，未来出 口有新的扰动，中小盘成长由于对出口的暴露更高，表现波动也会明显放大； 当下贸易和谈带来的信心修复，来源恰好是中国总量供给在全球的优势，而不 是单一科技行业的突破，反而核心科技主题当下缺乏新产业催化做进一步支 撑。总结来看，2025 年 Q1 是科技突破引领市场风险偏好，而现在是市场风险 偏好修复投资者风格阶段轮动科技主题，持续性资产较弱。 ➢ 未破未立的尴尬，但新秩序，新故事一直在孕育。第一，内需消费长效机 制的逐步建立下板块具备净利润增长、股息支付和估值提升三类收益来源，推 荐家电、食品饮料、化妆品、潮玩、旅游休闲、游戏、线上零售等；详细分析 可参考前期周报《修复之后，关注变化》。第二，中国对外贸易体系重塑下部分 提前完成出清供需格局相对良好的中国优势产业的产能价值有望逐渐体现（机 械设备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with specific stocks showing gains while others decline, indicating a potential theme-based investment trend in the market [3][4]. Market Performance - As of May 16, 2025, the CSI All Share Securities Company Index (399975) decreased by 0.58%, with Western Securities (002673) leading gains at 0.66% and Hongta Securities (601236) experiencing the largest drop at 2.39% [3]. - The Securities ETF (159841) fell by 0.72%, with a latest price of 0.97 yuan and a turnover of 34.26 million yuan during the session [3]. Fund Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued an action plan on May 7 to promote the high-quality development of public funds, emphasizing the importance of performance benchmarks for actively managed equity funds [3]. - The Securities ETF has seen a significant growth in scale, increasing by 1.928 billion yuan over the past year, ranking second among comparable funds [4]. Investment Opportunities - Zhongyin International suggests focusing on the securities sector, noting that the sector has just recovered from a previous gap and still holds significant value for allocation [4]. - The active equity funds currently have a low allocation to securities compared to performance benchmarks, indicating potential for increased capital allocation and valuation uplift in the sector [4]. Performance Metrics - The Securities ETF has achieved a net value increase of 23.82% over the past three years, ranking in the top 16.20% among index equity funds [5]. - The ETF's management fee is set at 0.50%, with a tracking error of only 0.007% over the past two months, indicating high tracking precision compared to peers [6]. Valuation Insights - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the CSI All Share Securities Company Index is 19.36, placing it in the lower 3.61% of its historical range, suggesting it is undervalued [6]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 59.02% of the total index, with notable companies including CITIC Securities (600030) and Eastmoney Information (300059) [6].

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 15 日 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 策略点评 关注券商主题化演绎行情 短期建议关注仍有演绎空间的券商行情，指数是否存在所谓"上行风险"是 需要关心的问题，此外更需要关心行情斜率。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》中所强调的业绩比较基准约束作 用，对于主动偏股型基金而言更多为中长期维度的合理引导，当前低配 行业的加速演绎，更类似于长逻辑投资思路下的短周期发酵，这比较符 合"主题投资"的特征，因此当前低配行业的加速演绎更类似一轮主题 化演绎行情。 这种主题化演绎行情，根据其演绎速度可能导致两种截然不同的市场 走势：一是延续"权重搭台"，随即"成长唱戏"，那么后续行情演 绎的节奏和空间都将为良性。第二种是向低配的权重行业/公司 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The investment advisory community holds a generally optimistic view on the macroeconomic outlook for Q2, with over 60% expressing a neutral to optimistic stance on the current economic situation [5][7][8] - A significant portion of advisors (44%) believe that the economy will show improvement in Q2 compared to Q1, while 29% anticipate some downward pressure [8] Group 2: Stock Market Predictions - Over 60% of advisors predict that the A-share market will rise in Q2, driven by ongoing growth stabilization policies [6][10] - The most favored investment theme remains technology stocks, although there is a noted decrease in enthusiasm for this sector [10][13] Group 3: Sector Preferences - Advisors are increasingly optimistic about the consumer sector and high-dividend stocks, with many indicating that these areas present good investment opportunities [10][14] - In the technology sector, 41% of advisors still favor it, but this is a decline of 17 percentage points from the previous quarter [13] Group 4: Asset Allocation - Equity assets are viewed as the most attractive for allocation in Q2, with 42% of advisors recommending stocks [15][16] - There is a notable increase in the recommendation for gold and precious metals, with 20% of advisors suggesting these assets, up 11 percentage points from the previous quarter [15][16] Group 5: High Net Worth Client Behavior - In Q1, 65% of high net worth clients reported profits, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous quarter [21] - 45% of high net worth clients opted to increase their positions in Q1, with technology stocks being the primary focus [22] Group 6: Hong Kong Market Insights - The investment attractiveness of the Hong Kong market has risen, with 81% of advisors recognizing its investment value [25][26] - High net worth clients have shown increased enthusiasm for Hong Kong stocks, with 41% increasing their investments in this market [25][26]

Group 1 - The external and internal environment has improved, leading to a market rebound as international trade conflicts have not escalated and negotiations with the US have begun [1] - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut to support the real economy, encouraging market sentiment and slightly shifting the focus upward [1] - The market has entered an earnings vacuum period after the annual and quarterly reports have been disclosed, with thematic investments becoming more active [1] Group 2 - The two markets experienced a volatile rebound with increased trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index has continuously risen and filled the gap from April 7 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index showed a catch-up characteristic but has not yet filled the upper gap, indicating a mixed performance [1] - Market hotspots last week were mainly concentrated in the military and high-end manufacturing sectors, with a general upward trend across various investment styles [1]