Report Overview - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to the Sino-US trade truce boosting the market, with both sides suspending and canceling most tariff measures. Subsequently, the market digested the optimistic sentiment, and there was uncertainty about the tariff policy after 90 days. The Fed maintained a hawkish stance, leading to concerns about US stagflation risks and global supply chain disruptions affecting both developed and developing economies, causing downward pressure on exports and economic slowdown. Domestically, in April, the social financing structure favored government bonds, but the negative scissors gap widened, and the central bank's financial incremental policies released positive sentiment. Fundamentally, the spot TC remained at a negative value of -$40, global inventories rebounded from a low level, the Yangshan copper warehouse receipt premium was high, and the near-month B structure of the futures market narrowed [2][7]. - Overall, the market has digested the positive sentiment of the Sino-US truce and is worried that tariff hikes and trade policy uncertainties will continue to disrupt the global supply chain, dragging down the global economic growth outlook. Domestically, the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut have been implemented, and social financing in April maintained stable growth. Fundamentally, the production capacity of major overseas mines is sustainable, the tight balance cycle of refined copper in China is shifting to marginal relaxation, and social inventories are rebounding from a low level. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high-level volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the global trade pattern [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Price Changes**: From May 9 to May 16, LME copper rose by $1.00 to $9440.00 per ton, a 0.01% increase; COMEX copper fell by 6.25 cents to 459.15 cents per pound, a 1.34% decrease; SHFE copper rose by 690 yuan to 78140 yuan per ton, an 0.89% increase; international copper rose by 600 yuan to 69350 yuan per ton, an 0.87% increase. The Shanghai-London ratio rose from 8.21 to 8.28. The LME spot premium dropped by $17.74 to $31.45 per ton, a 36.06% decrease, and the Shanghai spot premium increased by 365 yuan to 445 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 16, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 528,663 tons, with a net increase of 5451 tons or 1.04% compared to May 9. Specifically, LME copper inventory decreased by 12,400 tons to 179,375 tons, a 6.47% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 9414 short tons to 169,664 short tons, a 5.87% increase; SHFE inventory increased by 27,437 tons to 108,124 tons, a 34.00% increase; Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 71,500 tons, a 20.99% decrease [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Sino-US economic and trade talks issued a joint statement to relieve pressure on the global economy. Both countries maintained a relatively low tariff of 10%, and the US suspended the additional 24% tariff on China for 90 days. China also suspended or canceled non - tariff counter - measures against the US. The UN report shows that although the global tariff war is easing, tariff hikes and trade policy uncertainties continue to disrupt the supply chain, pushing up production costs and slowing down corporate investment. It is expected that the global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.4% in 2025. Domestically, China's social financing increment in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan. The social financing scale stock reached 424 trillion yuan at the end of April, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%, indicating an improvement in the economic credit structure [8]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: This week, the spot TC remained at -$43 per ton. The Antamina copper mine in Peru had a temporary shutdown due to a mine accident, and the President of Panama refused to sign a new agreement with First Quantum for the Cobre Panama project, leading to a long - term tight supply at the global mine end. In terms of refined copper, the domestic refined copper capacity utilization rate was generally high. In mid - May, imported supplies began to decline, and the blockage at some African ports was resolved. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects started one after another, the operating rate of cable enterprises in April rebounded to 81.3%, driving the operating rate of refined copper rod production back to 75%. The domestic social inventory rebounded to 130,000 tons, and the near - month B structure in the domestic market narrowed after the inventory bottomed out and rebounded [9]. 3.3 Industry News - **Production Reports**: Glencore's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 168,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30%. MMG's copper production (electrolytic copper + copper concentrate) in the first quarter was 118,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 76%. MMG raised its 2025 production guidance to 466,000 - 522,000 tons [11][12]. - **Project News**: First Quantum's closed Panama copper mine, if still in operation, would contribute over $1.7 billion to Panama's economy. However, the President of Panama refused to provide a new mining contract [13]. - **Processing Fee**: According to Mysteel research, the processing fee for 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China last week rose to 750 - 950 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 200 yuan per ton. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in China will continue to recover in late May [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, Shanghai Exchange and bonded area inventory, etc., to visually display the market situation of copper [15][18][23].

日本央行审议委员中村豊明：美国关税政策带来更大不确定性，可能对日本构成严重挑战。 ...

近期，中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。美国多家企业迅速启动"抢运模式"，试 图在窗口期内完成补库存。美国桌面游戏出版商斯通迈耶游戏公司就是其中之一。斯通迈耶游戏公司联 合创始人兼总裁斯特格迈尔表示，虽然目前迎来了暂时的"窗口期"，但美国关税政策的不确定性、运输 价格以及库存保障仍是他们面临的最大问题。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The proportion of U.S. stocks held by institutional investors has dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and economic concerns, leading many investors to shift their funds to Europe and other regions [1]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Survey Findings - The survey conducted by Bank of America (BofA) from May 2 to May 8 indicates that the net allocation of U.S. stocks has turned negative, with a difference of -38% between investors who are overweight (bullish) and those who are underweight (bearish) [1]. - Among various regions, only Europe saw an increase in asset allocation from institutional investors during this period [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategy - BofA Securities' Chief Japan Equity Strategist, Masashi Sato, noted that the end of U.S. reciprocal tariffs is not yet in sight, and there is a perspective that funds previously concentrated in the U.S. may diversify, making European stocks a target for investors [1].

Group 1 - The U.S. GDP is projected to shrink by 0.3% on a year-over-year basis in Q1 2025, primarily due to a significant increase in imports and a record trade deficit [1] - The risk of recession in the U.S. economy is increasing, with a technical recession being declared if there is another contraction in Q2 [1] - Maintaining economic growth in 2024 is expected to be highly challenging, with previous growth driven by improvements in labor market participation, investment, and energy production [1] Group 2 - Uncertainty surrounding policies, particularly tariffs, is weakening market confidence, leading to delayed investment decisions that could suppress economic growth [2] - Concerns about unemployment, linked to government layoffs, may indirectly impact consumer spending despite the labor market not showing significant weakness [2] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key variable in mitigating recession risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding trade agreements and tariff policies has led to a decline in U.S. stock markets for the second consecutive day, with investors expressing concerns about future trade policies and their economic implications [1][3][7]. Trade Agreement Uncertainty - Trump's statement about reviewing potential trade agreements in the next two weeks contrasts with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's earlier comments suggesting that some agreements could be announced as early as this week, increasing market volatility and investor anxiety [3][5]. Market Performance and Sector Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.95% to 40,829.00 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.77% to 5,606.90 points, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.87% to 17,689.66 points. The U.S. Commerce Department reported a record trade deficit of $140.5 billion in March, driven by increased imports ahead of tariff announcements [4][5]. - Healthcare stocks declined by 2.8%, with Eli Lilly down 5.6% and Moderna down 12.3%, significantly impacting the S&P 500 index [4]. Impact of Tariff Policies - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has notably affected the market, particularly after Trump's announcement regarding potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals, leading to significant declines in healthcare stocks reliant on imported drugs [5][6]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, indicated a patient approach to monetary policy adjustments until the effects of tariffs are reflected in economic data. The market anticipates an 80% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in the July meeting, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook [6].

周三（北京时间5月7日），现货黄金交投于3391美元附近，周二金价上涨近3%，重回3400美元附近， 升至两周高点。ETO外汇分析这一上涨主要受到假期后市场购买和对美国可能对进口药品征收关税的担 忧支撑，同时投资者也在等待美联储政策会议的结果。现货黄金上涨2.4%，至每盎司3413.29美元，为4 月22日创下每盎司3500.05美元的历史新高以来的最高水平。美国黄金期货结算价上涨3%，至3422.8美 元。 关税政策的不确定性 美国总统特朗普周一表示，他计划在未来两周内宣布对药品征收新关税。此前，周日早些时候，他还宣 布对海外制作的电影征收100%的关税。这些关税政策的不确定性增加了市场的避险情绪，推动了黄金 价格的上涨。投资者担心，关税政策可能会引发贸易摩擦，进而影响全球经济的稳定。 除了黄金，其他贵金属也表现出不同程度的上涨。现货白银上涨1.9%，至每盎司33.1美元；铂金上涨约 2.4%，至982.52美元；钯金上涨3.1%，至971.27美元。这些贵金属的上涨反映了市场对避险资产的整体 需求增加。 黄金市场的未来展望 黄金价格的上涨反映了市场对关税政策不确定性和美联储政策预期的双重推动。投资者在当前 ...

美国总统特朗普当地时间5月4日在社交媒体上发文称，他将授权美国商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有进入美国、在外国制作的电影征收100% 关税。对此，有美国经济学家警告，这一政策、特别是其中的不确定性将给美国电影产业构成实质性伤害。 0:00 美国欧道明大学经济系主任罗伯特·麦克纳布指出，征税对象、征税方式、执行机制等关键问题尚无细则，极大增加了市场不确定性。 罗伯特·麦克纳布认为，这一政策若落实，将直接影响许多国际合拍作品的归类与成本结构，政策模糊性还可能进一步削弱美国电影在全球的竞争力，影响 外资信心。 美国欧道明大学经济系主任 罗伯特·麦克纳布：我们该如何界定那些在海外拍摄，然后在美国剪辑并发行的作品，这算是外国电影吗？我们并不清楚。还是 说，只有完全在海外制作，然后被引进美国的电影才算外国电影。那类电影相对于好莱坞的产出来说是相对较少的。我认为，对进口国际电影加征关税，这 个提议传递出的更大信号是美国政治和经济环境的不确定性正在加剧，而这种不确定性将会在未来逐步削弱外国对美投资。 关税或削弱好莱坞全球化制作和发售能力 近年来正是跨国合作让美国电影在全球市场保持领先。如果关税真的开始执行，专家认为， ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, net sales increased by 1% year over year to $778 million, with wholesale net sales up 2% and direct-to-consumer sales flat [19][20] - Gross margin expanded by 30 basis points to 50.9%, while SG&A expenses increased by 1% [19][20] - Diluted earnings per share rose by 6% year over year to $0.75 [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Columbia brand net sales increased by 3%, while Mountain Hardwear net sales decreased by 14% and SOREL net sales decreased by 8% [28][33][35] - The US direct-to-consumer net sales declined by low single digits, with e-commerce down by high single digits, while brick-and-mortar sales were up low single digits due to new store contributions [21][20] - International markets showed strong performance, with LAAP net sales up 14% and EMEA net sales up 7% [22][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - US net sales decreased by 1%, with the wholesale business relatively flat [20] - China net sales increased in the low teens percentage, driven by strong e-commerce growth [22] - Japan net sales increased in the mid-teens percentage, benefiting from strong demand for late-season and winter products [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on mitigating the impacts of US tariff increases and has a diversified supply chain to navigate uncertainties [6][11] - Columbia plans to increase investment in demand creation and launch a new global marketing platform starting in August [15][56] - The company aims to absorb much of the incremental tariff costs in 2025 while exploring strategies to offset higher tariffs in 2026 [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed excitement about the company's brands and strategies, despite the unprecedented level of public policy uncertainty regarding trade [6][7] - The company has withdrawn its full-year 2025 outlook due to heightened uncertainty regarding tariff rates and consumer demand [16][109] - Management anticipates a challenging US market in the latter half of the year, with higher prices negatively impacting consumer demand [18] Other Important Information - The company has identified cost savings and profit-enhancing opportunities beyond the $150 million target established in 2024 [17] - Columbia's greater reward program has been recognized as a top loyalty program, contributing significantly to direct-to-consumer sales [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expectation for wholesale in the second half of the year? - Management indicated that the fall order book has not changed meaningfully and expects wholesale growth to be similar to early February expectations [39][42] Question: Are there opportunities to take market share due to private label offerings from China? - Management believes there are opportunities to gain market share from competitors facing challenges with imports from China [41][52] Question: How will the $40 to $45 million in incremental COGS from tariffs be distributed? - Management expects the majority of the tariff costs to be realized in the second half of the year, with potential impacts extending into 2026 [43][46] Question: What is the outlook for demand creation spending? - The company plans to increase marketing spending and improve efficiency in campaigns starting in August [54][56] Question: What are the recent trends in the China market? - Management noted strong growth in China, with plans to continue investing in localized design and production [67] Question: How is the company managing inventory in light of tariff uncertainties? - The company is rationalizing inventory purchases and pulling in inventory to mitigate potential tariff impacts [100][101]

摘要本周三（4月30日)欧市盘中，伦敦金价格小幅下跌，截发稿暂报3311.14美元/盎司，跌幅0.18%。日 内将迎来众多重磅数据，包括；美国4月ADP就业人数(万人)、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率初值、 美国3月核心PCE物价指数年率等等数据，根据昨日公布的整体数据和市场预期来看，晚间数据预计将 利好金价，所以，日内仍可以低多看涨反弹为主。 对未来情况的看法更加恶化。该会衡量受访者如何看待未来六个月的预期指数大跌至54.4，下降12.5， 为2011年10月以来的最低水平。该会官员表示该读数与经济衰退相符。 该会负责全球指标的高级经济学家Stephanie Guichard表示："三个预期子指标（商业状况、就业前景和 未来收入）都急剧恶化，反映出对未来普遍存在的悲观情绪。" Guichard补充说，总体而言，信心调查处于"疫情爆发以来从未见过的水平"。 【黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金走势维持宽幅震荡整理，一方面因市场对贸易战缓和的预期，令黄金反弹受到限制，另一方面 因关税政策不确定性，与经济衰退担忧，依旧吸引逢低买盘支撑金价，因此操作上建议大家，以震荡思 路对待，下方支撑关注3300美元，其次3268美元，上 ...