Macro Economic Outlook - In 2026, the U.S. midterm elections, Japan and Europe’s defense spending demands, and China's growth stabilization will lead to continued policy easing in the first half of the year. However, the actual space for macro policy is limited due to high inflation, rising government debt, and previous policy overreach [7] - The AI boom is expected to enhance efficiency and market valuations but may also exacerbate job losses and economic K-shaped divergence. Global liquidity easing and a weaker dollar may lead to rising inflation in the second half of the year, potentially causing volatility in high-valuation assets [7] Chinese Internet Software Sector - 2026 is seen as a critical year for capturing user mindshare in the AI era, focusing on lowering usage barriers and enhancing decision-making efficiency. Companies with stable cash flows supporting AI investments and strong operational capabilities are expected to have higher long-term investment value [8] - Recommended stocks include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou for AI-driven growth, and NetEase and Trip.com for stable earnings growth [8] Overseas Internet Software Sector - The competition in the large model industry is expected to intensify, with AI application monetization continuing to grow. Companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Palantir are recommended for their potential in AI revenue generation [9] Chinese Semiconductor Sector - The sector is expected to focus on AI-driven structural growth, self-sufficiency trends, high-yield defensive allocations, and industry consolidation. The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 26% to $975 billion in 2026, with AI-related segments leading the growth [10] Chinese Technology Sector - The global tech industry will experience demand differentiation and accelerated AI innovation. The expansion of computing power and the introduction of AI products are expected to drive growth, with a focus on AI infrastructure and end-user AI products [11] Chinese Essential Consumer Sector - The core constraint on consumer spending in 2026 is expected to be asset shrinkage and slow income recovery. Investment themes include the deepening of consumer stratification and a focus on essential survival needs [12] Chinese Discretionary Consumer Sector - The overall retail sales growth is projected to slow to about 3.5% in 2026. Investment strategies should focus on survival-type consumption, compensatory consumption, and defensive stocks [13] Chinese Automotive Sector - Despite pressures from subsidy reductions, the automotive industry is expected to show resilience, with retail sales of passenger vehicles projected to remain stable. Key trends include intensified competition and the growth of plug-in hybrid vehicles [14] Chinese Pharmaceutical Sector - The innovative drug sector has seen significant growth driven by overseas licensing deals. Future catalysts are expected to shift from upfront payments to milestone payments as clinical progress is made [15] Chinese Equipment Manufacturing Sector - The mining machinery sector is anticipated to be a major growth area, driven by high capital expenditures from global mining companies. Companies like Zoomlion and Sany Heavy Industry are expected to benefit [16] Natural Uranium Sector - The global supply of natural uranium is expected to remain tight, supporting a rising price trend. Demand may exceed expectations due to the recovery of U.S. nuclear power plants [17] Chinese Insurance Sector - The life insurance sector is undergoing a transformation towards dividend insurance, with expectations of improved profitability and valuation recovery. Companies like Ping An and China Life are recommended for their strong growth potential [18] Chinese Real Estate and Property Management Sector - The real estate market is expected to face continued sales declines, with a focus on stock market-related opportunities and resilient property management companies. Recommendations include China Resources and Beike [19]

核心新品产业化进展顺利。新签CMP装备订单中先进制程的订单已实现较大占比，部分先进制程CMP 装备在国内多家头部客户实现全部工艺验证，全新抛光系统架构CMP机台Universal-H300已经获得批量 重复订单。12英寸超精密晶圆减薄机Versatile–GP300晶圆减薄的极限厚度及TTV均已达到国际先进水 平，累计出机突破20台。华海清科已实现面向芯片制造的大束流离子注入机各型号的全覆盖，12英寸大 束流离子注入机批量交付国内多家集成电路制造头部企业。 盈利预测：公司深度绑定国内头部客户，核心产品产业化进展顺利，同时考虑到部分产品处于市场开拓 阶段且持续加码研发投入与生产能力建设，我们调整此前业绩预测（2025.7.3）。预计公司2025-2027年 营收分别为45.36/60.15/75.02亿元（前值为45.03/58.60/73.60亿元），归母净利润分别为12.01/16.01/20.13 亿元（前值为12.90/16.90/21.21亿元）。维持"强烈推荐"评级。 十五五规划半导体自主可控提速，先进制造全产业链或迎快速发展期，国产半导体设备与存储客户共同 研发，加速国产化率的提升，当前我们看国内 ...

12月17日午后，半导体产业链多股反弹，上游设备强势拉升。热门半导体设备ETF（561980）盘中拉涨2.21%、实时成交额破1.1亿；成份股联动科技、海光 信息大涨超5%，华峰测控、联动科技涨超4%，寒武纪、晶升股份、华海诚科涨超3%，芯源微、中芯国际等多股拉升。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 如开源证券指出，半导体设备自主可控是当下强确定性和弹性兼备的科技主线。招银国际也认为，半导体供应链自主可控是中国硬科技领域确定性最高，且 具备长期投资价值的核心主题。 外部格局的分化正重塑全球半导体产业生态，主要经济体均优先投资本土制造，以降低供应链风险。在中国，政策支持与强劲内需形成双重支撑，不仅推动 相关技术实现突破、加速进口替代进程，更促使本土半导体市场规模迎来结构性的扩张。 【布局思路：借道指数把握产业确定性】 对于投资者而言，直接参与个股波动风险较高，且半导体产业链有一定研究壁垒。相比之下，覆盖产业链关键环节的指数工具或提供了另一种选择。 目前，场内相关的半导体设备ETF（561980） 跟踪中证半导，成份股重点聚焦于半导体设备、材料、设计等国产替代核心领域的头部厂商，三大行业占比 超90%、前十大集 ...

近期，科创板可谓新星云集，受到市场的高度关注。 首先，摩尔线程于12月5日挂牌上市，它是2022年以来审核最快的科创板IPO。12月5日，摩尔线程智能科技（北京）股份有限公司正式在上海 证券交易所科创板挂牌上市，成为2024年以来科创板最大规模IPO。作为2022年以来审核最快的科创板IPO，摩尔线程从受理到过会仅88天。摩 尔线程已成为国内少数能够提供从FP8到FP64全计算精度支持的GPU厂商之一，也是国内率先推出支持DirectX12图形加速引擎的国产GPU企 业。 无独有偶，沐曦股份近期已启动科创板申购。沐曦股份科创板IPO申请于2025年6月30日获得受理，于10月24日获得上市委会议通过。11月12日 证监会已同意沐曦股份首次公开发行股票并于科创板上市的注册申请。12月5日，沐曦股份公布申购情况。沐曦股份表示，本次募集资金用于投 今日（12.16），A股震荡回调，全市场费率最低档的科创50指数ETF（588870）回调超2%，盘中成交额逼近5000万元。资金借道ETF逆市逢跌 布局，科创50指数ETF（588870）近5日有3日获净流入！截至12月15日，科创50指数ETF（588870）年内份额 ...

周二开盘市场延续调整，三大指数集体低开，畜牧、银行等低位板块表现较好，科技方向暂作回落。半 导体设备ETF（561980）盘中跌超1%，成份股芯源微、中船特气、珂玛科技等光刻胶概念、设备公司 走强，国产替代逻辑有所深化。 银河证券表示，"十五五"规划重点聚焦关键核心技术领域的自主突破，设备等领域是直接受益环节之 一；而光刻胶作为半导体制造的核心耗材，其本土化替代需求将随政策推进持续释放，据市场三方机构 数据统计，预计2025年光刻胶市场规模可达123亿元。 消息面上，半导体自主可控领域迎来密集催化： 一是媒体报道称我国正在考虑推出一项价值高达700亿美元的激励计划，以资助和支持芯片制造产业。 据悉，该方案拟拨出2000亿元人民币至5000亿元人民币的补贴和其他融资支持资金，最终细节、金额和 目标企业仍在商讨中。 二是沐曦股份即将接棒摩尔线程于12月17日在科创板上市，目前长鑫IPO也在推进。开源证券指出，长 鑫今年7月已经开始辅导，预计明年长鑫长存扩产将会有较高的同比增速，叠加先进逻辑厂商的持续扩 产，或可关注半导体设备的投资机会。 开源电子认为，半导体设备自主可控或是当下强确定性和弹性兼备科技主线，主要源于 ...

Macro Economic Outlook - The economic momentum in China is weakening, with November economic indicators falling below market expectations, indicating a further decline in economic activity [2] - Retail sales growth dropped to a post-pandemic low, significantly affected by high base effects and demand exhaustion from old-for-new subsidies, particularly in durable goods like home appliances, furniture, and automobiles [2] - Fixed asset investment growth has sharply declined, with real estate investment hitting a historical low, and both manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth continuing to slow [2] - A comprehensive decline in the real estate market, durable goods consumption, and new household loans suggests weakening terminal demand, forecasting a sluggish economic growth momentum into Q1 2026 [2] - GDP growth is expected to fall from 5% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, potentially triggering a new round of policy easing, including a 50 basis point RRR cut and a 10 basis point LPR cut in Q1 2026 [2] Global Market Performance - Major global stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,629, down 1.34% for the day but up 27.76% year-to-date [2] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also experienced slight declines of 0.16% and 0.59% respectively, while the DAX and CAC indices saw minor gains [2] - The performance of the Chinese stock market was characterized by declines in healthcare, consumer discretionary, and information technology sectors, while consumer staples, utilities, and financials outperformed [4] Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is projected to maintain four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive allocations, and industry consolidation and mergers [5] - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 26% year-on-year to reach $975 billion in 2026, with AI-related segments leading the growth, particularly logic chips and memory chips [5] - Notable stock performances include Zhongji Xuchuang with a year-to-date increase of 407%, Shengyi Technology at 172%, and Northern Huachuang at 64.9% [5]

2025年12月14日，汇正财经2026年度资本市场策略会在上海成功举办。会议以"解析政策脉络・拆解赛道价值・共探投资新机"为核心，集结宏观经济专家、 金融机构首席、私募合伙人等业内人士，深度解读全球经济变局下的中国机遇，聚焦新质生产力与资本市场改革红利，线上各直播平台观看人次超107万， 为投资者奉上一场兼具深度与实操性的思想盛宴。 "十五五"把握长周期趋势，拥抱新产业机遇 著名经济学家马光远指出，2025年全球经济增速放缓与贸易 保护主义扰动下，中国经济"顶压前行、向新向优"的韧性尤为可贵。"稳中求进、以进促稳"的总基调为经济发展筑牢根基，积极财政政策与适度宽松货币政 策的精准协同，正在用发展确定性对冲外部不确定性。 马光远强调周期认知是投资决策的核心。他指出，要聚焦政策支持的新兴产业、未来产业及新基建 领域。 储能赛道三大趋势升级，万亿空间加速释放 汇正财经首席策略师杨首骏深入拆解储能赛道，提出2026年储能行业将迎来"长时化、智能化、市场 化"三大趋势。他指出，在"双碳"目标与AI算力爆发的双重驱动下，储能作为新能源"源网荷储"的关键环节，政策支持与市场需求形成共振，未来五年有望 保持较高增速。 杨首 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the semiconductor industry, highlighting four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive positioning, and industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions [2][4]. Core Insights - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 26% year-on-year in 2026, reaching $975 billion, with AI-related segments leading this growth [4][48]. - Key recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH), with a target price of RMB 707, and Shengyi Technology (600183 CH), with a target price of RMB 90, both expected to benefit significantly from AI infrastructure investments [3][5]. Summary by Themes Theme 1: AI-Driven Structural Growth - The AI supply chain is experiencing strong revenue growth and profit margin expansion, indicating a robust demand for infrastructure rather than a temporary investment craze [5]. - Capital expenditure from major cloud providers is expected to reach $367 billion in 2025, a 59% increase year-on-year, and further rise to $495 billion in 2026 [5][6]. - The demand for AI technology is expanding beyond large cloud service providers to include sovereign funds and enterprise clients [5][10]. Theme 2: China's Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency Trend - The self-sufficiency of the semiconductor supply chain in China is identified as a core theme with long-term growth potential, driven by geopolitical shifts and domestic policy support [3][38]. - Companies like Northern Huachuang (002371 CH) are positioned to benefit from this trend, with a target price of RMB 460 [39]. Theme 3: High-Yield Defensive Positioning - Major Chinese telecom operators are recommended as core defensive positions due to their strong balance sheets and attractive dividend yields, with China Mobile offering a yield of 6.0% [43][44]. Theme 4: Accelerating M&A Activity in the Semiconductor Industry - The report anticipates an acceleration in M&A activities within the semiconductor sector, with key players actively seeking to fill technology gaps and enhance supply chain resilience [46][47]. - Notable transactions in 2025 include Northern Huachuang's acquisition of Xinyuan Micro and other strategic consolidations aimed at strengthening market positions [47].

国金证券指出，存储器是半导体中仅次于逻辑（GPU、CPU等）的第二大细分市场，其历史表现与整个 半导体周期走势一致，但波动性大于整个行业，大市场与强周期属性并存。随着AI驱动需求提升，我 们可能正走在新一轮存储大周期的起点。半导体设备位于产业链上游，是支撑芯片制造与封测的核心产 业；2025年或是国产半导体设备订单增长与业绩兑现的大年。后续随着AI大模型驱动存储技术向3D化 演进，叠加长鑫、长存等国内存储大厂扩产项目落地，国产半导体设备产业链有望迎来新一轮高速增长 机遇。 周一市场成交额重回2万亿，科技方向领涨。细分来看，光模块、存储、半导体设备等AI算力、芯片产 业链细分再度走强，热门半导体设备ETF（561980）昨日大涨2.23%。 Wind数据显示，截至12月8日，该ETF连续两日获资金净流入累计超3000万元，最新规模27.95亿元。 消息面上，近日摩尔线程上市、沐曦股份开启申购，显示国产GPU资本化、市场化进程明显提速。此 外，存储芯片涨价幅度还在扩大。据Trend Force集邦咨询最新调查，预计第四季度整体NAND Flash价 格还会持续上涨，各产品涨幅将落在20%—25%之间。 中证指数官 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) experienced a midday increase of 1.24%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Haiguang Information rising over 4% and Cambrian increasing by 3.40% [1] - The ETF's latest trading volume reached 1.03 billion, indicating active trading, and it attracted 17.25 million in capital on the previous trading day [2] - The ETF tracks the CSI semiconductor index, which has seen a year-to-date increase of 53.87%, with a maximum increase of over 80% during the period, ranking first among major semiconductor indices [2] Group 2 - According to SIA data, global semiconductor sales surged by 33% year-on-year in October, totaling 71.3 billion USD (approximately 504 billion RMB), with DRAM sales skyrocketing by 90% [3] - WSTS forecasts that global semiconductor revenue will grow by 22.5% to 772 billion USD in 2025, and further increase by 26.3% in 2026, driven by demand from AI and data centers [3] - Huatai Securities anticipates that the storage cycle will remain favorable in 2026, with price increases supported by AI data center demand, benefiting domestic storage chip manufacturers and related sectors [3] - Huachuang Securities believes that by 2025, domestic advanced manufacturing capabilities will steadily improve, and the semiconductor self-sufficient industrial chain will continue to develop [3] Group 3 - External restrictions on Chinese semiconductors have expanded from advanced process products to equipment, components, and key production lines at mature nodes, increasing the urgency for supply chain self-sufficiency [4] - The manufacturing capabilities for advanced logic and storage are essential for the AI era, with a projected resonance in storage and advanced logic expansion in 2026, providing clear order momentum for domestic equipment and components [4]