2025.09. 18 本文字数：2301，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 美联储如期公布9月利率决议，降息25个基点，点阵图并暗示年内还有两次降息，完全符合市场预 期。虽然点阵图预示明年或仅降息1次，随后等到2027年再降息一次，2028年停止降息，但美联储 主席鲍威尔表示，点阵图显示为个人预测并非计划，政策未设定预设路径。 中金公司发布研报称，美联储9月降息25个基点，符合市场预期。美联储较好回应了市场的关切，但 也保持了克制。此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现，决策者对于下一步降息存在较大分歧。由于就 业数据过于疲软，预计联储或将于10月再次降息，但在这之后，通胀升温将使降息门槛越来越高， 货币宽松空间也将受限。当前美国经济的症结并非需求不足，而是成本上升。 据芝商所"美联储观察"（CME Fedwatch）分析，美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为12.3%，降息 25个基点的概率为87.7%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为1.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为 19.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为79.9%。 日股再创历史新高 日经225指数18日开盘即快速拉涨，截至9点半左右，已上涨0. ...

美联储较好回应了市场的关切，但也保持了克制。 美联储如期公布9月利率决议，降息25个基点，点阵图并暗示年内还有两次降息，完全符合市场预期。 虽 然点阵图预示明年或仅降息1次，随后等到2027年再降息一次，2028年停止降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔 表示，点阵图显示为个人预测并非计划，政策未设定预设路径。 中金公司发布研报称，美联储9月降息25个基点，符合市场预期。美联储较好回应了市场的关切，但也 保持了克制。此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现，决策者对于下一步降息存在较大分歧。由于就业数据 过于疲软，预计联储或将于10月再次降息，但在这之后，通胀升温将使降息门槛越来越高，货币宽松空 间也将受限。当前美国经济的症结并非需求不足，而是成本上升。 据芝商所"美联储观察"（CME Fedwatch）分析，美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为12.3%，降息25个 基点的概率为87.7%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为1.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为19.0%，累计 降息50个基点的概率为79.9%。 日股再创历史新高 日经225指数18日开盘即快速拉涨，截至9点半左右，已上涨0.75%，再创历史新高，房地产和科技板块 领涨 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 1.5%, driven by strong performance in the robotics and semiconductor sectors [1] - Key stocks in the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) include Hua Hong Semiconductor, ASMPT, SMIC, Horizon Robotics, Baidu, and Meituan, with Hua Hong Semiconductor up over 12% and SMIC up over 7% [1] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 9.44 billion on September 17, with SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor attracting net purchases of HKD 407 million and HKD 237 million respectively, indicating continued investor interest in self-sufficiency in technology [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is seen as beneficial for technology growth sectors in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as it is expected to enhance valuation and reduce financing costs [1] - The semiconductor sector is regaining market focus following TSMC's upward revision of annual performance guidance and optimistic outlooks from SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor regarding future orders [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has surpassed the 6300-point mark, with expectations of continued inflows from southbound funds and a potential revaluation of technology assets driven by AI narratives [2]

国信证券指出，半导体自主可控再度成为市场焦点。与此同时，Deepseek、阿里先后表态对国产算力的 适配力度和采购比重都有所加大，而国内先进制程的配套能力也在不断提升，本土算力链正经历戴维斯 双击。我们对于2025年电子板块在"宏观政策周期、产业库存周期、AI创新周期"共振下"估值扩张"的乐 观判断。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 9月17日，A股市场全天震荡走强，三大指数探底回升。芯片产业链全天持续走强，"芯片一哥"中芯国 际盘中股价创历史新高，兴图新科、利扬芯片、波长光电、峰岹科技、利和兴等5股斩获20CM涨停， 精智达、长盈精密、中巨芯等个股涨超10%。 消息面上，SEMI报告显示，25Q2全球半导体设备出货金额达到330.7亿美元，同比增长24%。中国大陆 销售额达113.6亿美元，同比下滑2%，环比增长11%，以约34.4%的份额稳居全球第一大半导体设备市 场。 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52% last week, with the electronics sector increasing by 6.15%, and the components sub-sector up by 11.33% [1] - The North American computing industry is experiencing rapid growth, with semiconductor companies like TSMC revising their annual performance guidance upwards, and optimistic outlooks from SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor regarding future orders [1] - Domestic computing capabilities are improving, with companies like Deepseek and Alibaba increasing their procurement of domestic computing power, indicating a positive trend for the local supply chain [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imported simulation chips from the U.S., which is expected to enhance price competition and accelerate domestic substitution [2] - The investigation period is set from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, with the investigation expected to conclude by September 13, 2026, unless extended [2] - The focus of the investigation includes general interface chips and gate driver chips using 40nm and above process technology, with recommendations for companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor [2] Group 3 - Alibaba and Baidu have begun using internally designed chips for training AI models, indicating a shift towards domestic chip development [3] - Alibaba mentioned a "backup plan" in response to global AI chip supply and policy changes during its latest earnings call [3] - Baidu's Kunlun chip has secured significant market share in a major procurement project, reflecting the gradual decoupling of China's AI development from Western semiconductor ecosystems [3]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52% last week, with the electronics sector increasing by 6.15%, and the components sub-sector up by 11.33% [1] - The North American computing industry is experiencing rapid growth, with semiconductor companies like TSMC revising their annual performance guidance upwards, and optimistic outlooks from SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor regarding future orders [1] - Domestic computing capabilities are improving, with companies like Deepseek and Alibaba increasing their procurement of domestic computing power, indicating a positive trend for the local supply chain [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imported simulation chips from the U.S., which is expected to enhance price competition and accelerate domestic substitution [2] - The investigation period is set from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, with the investigation expected to conclude by September 13, 2026, unless extended [2] - The focus of the investigation includes general interface chips and gate driver chips using 40nm and above process technology, with recommendations for companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor [2] Group 3 - Alibaba and Baidu have begun using internally designed chips for training AI models, indicating a shift towards domestic chip development [3] - Alibaba mentioned a "backup plan" in response to global AI chip supply and policy changes during its latest earnings call [3] - Baidu's Kunlun chip has secured significant market share in a major procurement project, reflecting the growing independence of China's AI development from Western semiconductor ecosystems [3]

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong rebound on September 17, with the three major indices recovering from earlier lows. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges recorded a total trading volume of 2.38 trillion yuan, with over 2,500 stocks rising [1][2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.95% [1][2]. Sector Performance - The semiconductor industry, particularly the photolithography equipment sector, saw significant gains, with stocks like SMIC reaching historical highs. The photolithography index rose by 4.24% [5][7]. - In the Hong Kong market, the technology sector surged, with the Hang Seng Tech Index climbing 4.3%, driven by major players like Baidu and Tencent [3][14]. Semiconductor Industry Insights - The global semiconductor equipment shipment value reached $33.07 billion in Q2 2025, marking a 24% year-on-year increase. However, sales in mainland China fell by 2% year-on-year, despite a quarterly growth of 11% [7]. - Domestic companies are increasingly focusing on self-sufficiency in semiconductor technology, with significant investments from firms like Deepseek and Alibaba in domestic computing power [9]. Robotics Sector Developments - Tesla's Optimus robot is making progress, with plans for a technical evaluation of AI chip designs. The company is expected to accelerate development in humanoid robots and autonomous driving [11][12]. - The robotics sector is seeing a focus on cost reduction and lightweight technologies, with applications in logistics and specialized industries [11]. Strategic Collaborations - Baidu and China Merchants Group signed a strategic cooperation framework to collaborate on AI technologies, which could enhance industrial intelligence in various sectors [16]. - Tencent has adapted mainstream domestic chips and is actively participating in the open-source community, indicating a commitment to local technology integration [8]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong market may continue to see structural growth, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, supported by expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [17].

Group 1 - Semiconductor equipment stocks surged on September 17, with Changchuan Technology rising over 8%, and other companies like Zhongwei Company, Zhongke Feimeng, and Tuojing Technology increasing by more than 5% [1] - The Semiconductor Equipment ETF (561980) saw its gains expand, reaching a 3.45% increase with a trading volume of 118 million yuan [1] - The ETF tracks the CSI Semiconductor Industry Index, which has a high concentration of components, with the top five stocks accounting for nearly 59% and the top ten exceeding 78% [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry chain experienced a significant surge, partly due to Tencent's announcement of full adaptation to mainstream domestic chips, leading to a 2% increase in its stock price [1] - Huawei released the "Intelligent World 2035" report, predicting a 100,000-fold increase in total computing power by 2035, with AI storage capacity demand expected to grow 500 times by 2025 [2] - National Securities highlighted the focus on semiconductor self-control, particularly in analog chips, memory chips, and computing ASICs, indicating significant growth potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks in Hong Kong experienced significant gains, with SMIC rising over 4% and Hua Hong Semiconductor increasing over 2%, driven by a strong performance in the North American computing industry and TSMC's upward revision of its annual performance guidance [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF, which includes major holdings like Baidu, NIO, JD Group, SMIC, Meituan, and Alibaba, followed the upward trend of the index [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index surpassed the 6200-point mark, breaking previous highs [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Guosen Securities highlighted that the semiconductor sector is experiencing a rapid increase in performance, with domestic computing capabilities becoming a focal point as companies like DeepSeek and Alibaba increase their procurement and adaptation efforts for domestic computing [1] - The domestic advanced process capabilities are continuously improving, indicating a positive trend for the local computing supply chain [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - With ongoing inflows of southbound capital and the potential initiation of a new round of interest rate cuts in the U.S., Hong Kong stocks may see a resonance of both domestic and foreign investments in September [1] - The "anti-involution" policies and Alibaba's better-than-expected earnings report, along with rapid iterations of AI large models, suggest a potential revaluation of the Hang Seng Technology sector, moving from "takeout involution" back to an AI narrative [1] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account may consider using the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF to gain exposure to core Chinese AI assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector is regaining focus on self-sufficiency, with recommendations for analog, memory, and ASICs due to recent market trends and optimistic forecasts from key players like TSMC and SMIC [2][3] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52%, while the electronics sector increased by 6.15%, with components up by 11.33% and optical optoelectronics up by 0.85% in the past week [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and Taiwan Information Technology Index rose by 5.31%, 4.17%, and 6.05%, respectively [1][2] Semiconductor Sector Insights - TSMC raised its annual performance guidance, and both SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor expressed optimistic outlooks for future orders during their earnings calls, leading to a rapid sector rally [1][2] - The focus on domestic semiconductor self-sufficiency is highlighted by increased support for local computing power solutions from companies like Deepseek and Alibaba [2] Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imported analog chips from the U.S., which is expected to improve price competition and accelerate domestic substitution [3] - The investigation period is set from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, with the product scope including general interface chips and gate driver chips using 40nm and above process technology [3] Memory Market Trends - Micron announced a halt in pricing for all DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4, and LPDDR5 memory products, indicating potential price increases due to tightening supply and recovering demand [3][4] - TrendForce forecasts a 10% to 15% increase in NAND Flash wafer prices and a 3% to 8% rise in client SSD prices in Q2 2025 [3] AI and Computing Power Developments - Alibaba and Baidu are increasingly using internally designed chips for AI model training, indicating a shift towards domestic solutions [4] - Oracle raised its cloud infrastructure revenue forecast, expecting a 77% increase to $18 billion in FY26, driven by growing demand from AI companies [4] New Product Launches - Apple introduced significant updates to its AirPods Pro3 and iPhone models, enhancing features without increasing prices, which may positively impact the supply chain [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across various sectors, including semiconductor firms like SMIC, Naxin Micro, and others, as well as memory manufacturers and consumer electronics companies [5]