宏观经济周报 2025 年第 44 周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数较上周显著回升，重回扩张区间，显示经济景气 度整体回暖，基本面韧性进一步增强。分项来看，消费景气指数小幅回落至收 缩区间，显示节后需求惯性在高基数影响下有所放缓。投资景气指数显著抬 升，节后投资活动继续推进。制造业结构升级、设备更新与科技创新项目带动 投资活跃度上升。出口景气指数延续平稳，虽全球需求偏弱，但外贸结构优 化、多元市场拓展仍支撑出口稳定。生产景气指数大幅回升、强势扩张，显示 假期后供给端修复明显，工业生产快速恢复常态。总体来看，本周综合景气指 数在假期扰动消退后恢复性回升，经济动能从消费主导转向生产与投资共振， 预计后续政策推动下，景气水平有望维持温和扩张态势。 2025 年前三季度中国 GDP 同比增长 5.2%，比去年同期加快 0.4 个百分点，主 要宏观指标平稳。就业保持稳定、物价温和上涨、国际收支平衡，展现出强大 的抗压性与稳定性。具体来看，一方面新质生产力加快形成，高质量发展动能 充沛。创新链与产业链深度融合，新兴产业快速成长，高技术制造业增加值同 比增长 9.6%，人工智能、数字经济、绿色转型等新动 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that "Sanae Economics" proposed by newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is not equivalent to "Abenomics 2.0" due to differing political and economic environments, with a focus on responsible fiscal policy rather than aggressive monetary easing [1][2][9] - Takaichi's economic policy emphasizes proactive fiscal measures, contrasting with Abenomics which prioritized monetary easing to combat deflation. The new approach aims to address inflation while maintaining financial stability [6][17] - Takaichi's government faces significant political constraints, including a lower parliamentary majority and lower public support compared to Abe, which may hinder the implementation of her policies [9][17] Group 2 - Japan's fiscal deficit is projected to rise from 1.3% in FY2025 to around 2.0% in FY2026, indicating a more expansionary fiscal stance compared to other developed economies [20][21] - The expected economic growth rate for Japan is forecasted to slightly increase to 0.9% in FY2026, driven by fiscal stimulus measures, with the supplementary budget potentially exceeding last year's 13.9 trillion yen [27][21] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to lag in raising interest rates, with market expectations for a 50 basis point increase in 2026, influenced by inflation and currency depreciation pressures [45][47] Group 3 - Takaichi's government plans to implement a comprehensive stimulus package, including energy subsidies and tax relief measures, to support households and businesses amid rising costs [20][21] - The fiscal measures are expected to have a modest impact on GDP growth, with an estimated contribution of around 0.25% from the supplementary budget [27][21] - Japan's debt situation remains manageable, with a high debt-to-GDP ratio but low interest payment pressures due to a long debt duration and low foreign debt exposure [36][21]

在通缩环境下，通胀目标是否有效和合适？ 在中尾武彦看来，日本当时遭受了多重压力，包括资产负债表调整、负财富效应、老龄化和人口开始减少、新兴市场竞争力超预期走强、美国数字经济的领 先，以及美国在某些领域的打压等。 "当时美国担心会被日本超越，在1990年代对日本施加了巨大压力。1990年代日本的人均GDP（以美元计）比美国高出约30%～40%，因此美国感到害怕， 并在某种意义上通过（迫使日元）极度升值以及半导体协议等方式猛烈打压日本，这限制了日本经济和日本公司的实力。（日本）企业高管开始认为，最好 不要做太多，不要激进，保持温和更好，那种魄力或企业家精神就被削弱了。"中尾武彦认为，并不仅仅是通缩导致了日本经济变弱。 "泡沫破裂后，（日本）连续实施了财政政策，但并未真正奏效。"中尾武彦回忆说，从2013年起，安倍经济学开始大规模推行扩张性政策，但这些政策的影 响并非全是积极的。 "通胀确实回来了，股价也上涨了，但这部分是因为，或者说主要是因为进口价格上涨，因为日元便宜，也因为乌克兰危机后的商品价格上涨等因素。所以 这未必是货币政策的效果。"中尾武彦认为，股价上涨还有一部分原因是日经指数由许多出口型并有大量海外资产 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that Kishi Sanae's economic policy, termed "Sanae Economics," is not equivalent to "Abenomics 2.0," as it emphasizes fiscal policy over monetary policy, reflecting a shift in focus from combating deflation to addressing inflation [2][13][15] - Kishi's government plans to implement a stimulus package that may raise Japan's fiscal deficit rate from 1.3% in FY2025 to around 2.0% in FY2026, which is higher than France and the UK but lower than the US, Germany, and Greece [2][16] - Japan's real GDP growth is expected to slightly increase to 0.9% in FY2026, with fiscal stimulus contributing approximately 0.25% to GDP growth [3][19] Group 2 - Kishi's economic policies are characterized by a responsible proactive fiscal policy, which includes a stimulus package, energy subsidies, and tax relief for low-income households, while also aiming to increase defense spending [15][24] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to face pressure to raise interest rates due to rising inflation and a weak yen, with market expectations for two rate hikes in 2026 [3][34][37] - Kishi's political constraints include a lower approval rating compared to Abe and a weaker parliamentary majority, which may hinder the implementation of her economic policies [7][13]

Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data - Equity assets saw a general increase, while gold prices experienced a significant decline. The S&P 500 rose by 1.9%, and the Nasdaq increased by 2.3%. In contrast, COMEX gold dropped by 3.1% to $4104.2 per ounce [1][3][39] - The U.S. initiated a 301 investigation into the first phase of the trade agreement with China, with a meeting scheduled between President Trump and Chinese officials on October 30 [1][48] - The U.S. September CPI was weaker than market expectations, with core CPI rising only 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%. The October Markit manufacturing and services PMIs showed improvements, rising to 52.2 and 55.2, respectively, indicating stronger performance compared to Europe, Japan, and the UK [1][65][76] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. cumulative fiscal deficit for 2025 reached $1.38 trillion, with total expenditures at $6.59 trillion and tax revenues at $4.16 trillion, marking an increase from the previous year [51][52] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have strengthened due to the weak CPI data, with the market anticipating two rate cuts in 2025 and three in 2026 [60][62] - The U.S. October Markit manufacturing and services PMIs rebounded, indicating that the U.S. economy remains a leader among developed countries [76]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that "Sanae Economics" under Prime Minister Takaiichi is not equivalent to "Abenomics 2.0" due to differing political and economic environments, with a focus on responsible fiscal policy rather than aggressive monetary easing [1][2][9] - Takaiichi's government plans to implement a stimulus package that may raise Japan's fiscal deficit rate from 1.3% in FY2025 to around 2.0% in FY2026, which is higher than France and the UK but lower than the US, Germany, and Greece [2][20][21] - The article highlights that Japan's actual GDP growth is expected to slightly increase to 0.9% in FY2026, driven by fiscal stimulus, with the supplementary budget potentially exceeding last year's 13.9 trillion yen [2][27] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to face pressure to raise interest rates, with market expectations for a 50 basis point increase in 2026, despite Takaiichi's cautious stance on monetary policy [2][45][56] - The article discusses the significant political constraints on Takaiichi's administration, including a lower approval rating and a weaker parliamentary majority compared to Abe's tenure, which may hinder policy implementation [9][17] - The economic environment has changed significantly since Abe's time, with current challenges including rising inflation and a depreciating yen, contrasting with the low inflation and interest rates during Abe's administration [17][47]

Group 1: Economic Policy Comparison - Sanae Takai's economic policy, termed "Takai Economics," emphasizes responsible fiscal policy, contrasting with Abe's focus on aggressive monetary easing[2] - Takai's government faces significant political constraints, with the ruling party holding only 49.7% of seats in the Diet, compared to Abe's 67.9%[2] - Takai's approval rating stands at 44%, significantly lower than Abe's 60% during his tenure[2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook - Japan's fiscal deficit is projected to rise from 1.3% in FY 2025 to approximately 2.0% in FY 2026, indicating a more expansionary fiscal stance[3] - The fiscal stimulus package under Takai may exceed last year's 13.9 trillion yen, with a GDP impact estimated at around 0.25%[3] - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio remains high, but interest payment pressures are manageable due to low foreign debt and long maturities[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes are expected to lag, with market predictions suggesting a 50 basis point increase in 2026[4] - High inflation and a weak yen are significant constraints on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with a 10% depreciation of the yen estimated to raise inflation by 0.3 percentage points[4] - The core CPI in Japan rose to 2.9% in September, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[4]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Fumio Kishida as Japan's Prime Minister has led to the emergence of "Kishida Economics," which continues the principles of "Abenomics" with a focus on expansive fiscal and monetary policies [2][3]. Group 1: Election and Policy Framework - Fumio Kishida was elected as Japan's 104th Prime Minister on October 21, 2023, after a tumultuous path that included the withdrawal of the Komeito party from the ruling coalition and subsequent support from the Japan Innovation Party [2]. - Kishida's economic policy, termed "Kishida Economics," emphasizes a continuation and development of "Abenomics," advocating for a combination of loose monetary policy and expansionary fiscal measures [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Kishida's administration faces significant challenges, including Japan's high government debt-to-GDP ratio, which is the highest among developed countries, potentially complicating fiscal expansion efforts [3]. - The current inflationary environment is markedly different from the low inflation experienced during the Abenomics era, raising concerns that large-scale stimulus could exacerbate inflation [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Independence - Kishida's approach raises questions about the independence of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), as he has previously advocated for greater government intervention in monetary policy [4][5]. - Despite Kishida's recent comments supporting the BOJ's autonomy, the future path of monetary policy remains uncertain, with market expectations for interest rate hikes being postponed [5]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Kishida's election, the market experienced a "Kishida Trade," characterized by rising Japanese stocks and a weakening yen, with the yen falling below the 153 mark against the dollar for the first time since October 10 [1][6]. - Analysts caution that the current market environment differs significantly from the Abenomics period, suggesting that the "Kishida Trade" may not be sustainable in the long term [6][7].

从日线图可以看出，美元兑日元目前受制于上升趋势线上轨和下降压力线即153.70附近153.20-153.70位 压力区间。 152.00附近是第一支撑，即5日线与近期汇价突破的点位，之后是150.70附近即8月1日高点，最后是支撑 是149.00也是这波日元贬值的起点，高市早苗夺得党魁当日汇价的最低点。 周五（10月24日）欧市盘中，美元/日元在周五欧市时段交投于152.9500附近，日本9月CPI录得2.9超出 预期，由于市场对高市交易的押注，日元并没有停止贬值，同时日本首相高市早苗周五表态称，"经济 优先、财政随后"的原则将是其施政方针的基础。 自从高市早苗上台之后，其就被当做是安倍经济学的继任者，市场开始押注日元的贬值交易，但事实真 是如此吗，之前虽然高市早苗说过反对央行加息等言论但是自从开启选举，其就明确自己与鸽派主义进 行了分割。由此可知如果继续惯性的押注日元大幅贬值将会是对高市团队方针的误读。 高市团队周五表示其奉行经济优先、财政随后"原则，将作为其施政方针的核心基础。会在"负责任的积 极财政政策"理念框架下，对财政支出进行战略性部署。为保障财政可持续性，将通过降低债务占GDP 比率，稳固市场信心 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen continues to weaken, being the worst performer among G10 currencies, with the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing 153, reflecting a cumulative depreciation of approximately 1.5% this week, more than double the decline of other G10 currencies [1] - Newly appointed Prime Minister Sanna Takashi is expected to implement a "strategic and responsible" expansionary fiscal policy, potentially leading to "Abenomics 2.0" to revitalize Japan's sluggish economic growth [3] - The anticipated spending plan under Takashi is expected to exceed the previous 13.9 trillion yen proposal by former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, indicating a significant increase in fiscal stimulus [3] Group 2 - Takashi's stance on fiscal stimulus has led to new highs in the Japanese stock market, although it exerts pressure on the yen and Japanese government bonds, which saw a slight increase as no significant bond issuance was mentioned [3] - The new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama hinted at the possibility of issuing additional government bonds if existing resources are insufficient to fund Takashi's economic plans, indicating a reliance on higher-than-expected tax revenues and unused budget funds [4] - Market participants are closely monitoring the monetary policy outlook for both Japan and the US, with upcoming discussions on interest rates by both central banks, particularly focusing on the US CPI data and the Bank of Japan's policy meeting [4]