Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister is expected to bring significant changes to the economic landscape, with a potential return to "Abenomics" and a focus on inflation management [5][6]. Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 4%, surpassing the 47,800 mark, reaching a historical high, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose approximately 3%, breaking the 3,220 points barrier [1]. - The Japanese yen is under significant pressure, with the USD/JPY exchange rate exceeding 150 [2]. Economic Policies - Takaichi's administration is anticipated to prioritize inflation issues, potentially increasing subsidies to local governments and considering a reduction in consumption tax [6][7]. - She has emphasized the need for close coordination between the government and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) regarding economic policies, criticizing the BOJ's interest rate hikes as "foolish" [8]. Market Expectations - Takaichi's stance has reinforced market expectations that the BOJ will maintain its accommodative monetary policy, leading investors to reassess their strategies regarding interest rate hikes [9]. - Barclays economists predict a decreased likelihood of the BOJ raising interest rates within 2025, suggesting that Takaichi's dovish tone may strengthen in the future [11][12]. Financial Market Dynamics - The Japanese financial market is entering a phase of rapid repricing, with expectations of a positive market response to Takaichi's fiscal policies [10][13]. - Analysts believe that her proactive fiscal stance could boost market confidence, leading to a rotation towards growth stocks in the domestic market [13].

Market Reaction - The victory of Sanae Takaichi in the LDP presidential election is interpreted as a signal for the potential return of "Abenomics," leading to a rapid market revaluation[4] - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 4%, marking the largest single-day increase in months[5] - The Japanese yen depreciated by 1.5% against the US dollar, approaching the psychological level of 150, and hit a historical low against the euro[5] Bond Market Impact - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds soared by 14 basis points to 3.52%, reflecting expectations of increased fiscal spending[5] - The bond market faces pressure due to anticipated government debt issuance, which could lead to a sell-off if not managed with a safety net[10] Economic Policy Outlook - Takaichi emphasized prioritizing inflation control, proposing increased subsidies to local governments and potentially lowering consumption tax[5] - Her stance against interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan reinforces market expectations for continued accommodative monetary policy[4] Global Market Dynamics - The interplay between Japanese and US monetary policies is injecting new momentum into global risk assets, benefiting equities and emerging markets[10] - The US dollar's trajectory is complicated; while the yen's weakness supports the dollar, rising global risk appetite diminishes the dollar's appeal as a safe haven[10] Investment Strategy - Investors are adjusting positions in anticipation of fiscal stimulus, favoring high-dividend and high-yield assets while navigating a complex selection of options[11]

华尔街对美国政府关门、就业数据"放鸽子"是真不屑一顾 ！ 一边是风险资产美股、比特币创历史新高，另一边避险资产黄金再度攀新高，突破3900美元关口，最高上涨至每盎司3920.77美元，距离首次突破3800美元/ 盎司关口仅不到10天。 日本市场这边直接上演股债汇的剧烈波动，股市单日飙涨2000点，究竟发生了什么 ？ 黄金继续涨到根本停不下来！ 周一早盘，伦敦现货黄金升破3900美元/盎司关口，盘中最高触及3920.77美元/盎司，再度站上历史新高点，距离首次突破3800关口，仅用时不到10天。 今年黄金走势异常凶猛，年内已飙升近50%，主要受地缘政治风险、美联储降息、美元走弱、全球央行持续购金等因素影响。 而最近几天，金价从10天时间从3800关口到3900美元，则主要是受到了美国政府关门危机的刺激。 当地时间10月5日，美国联邦政府停摆进入第五天，甚至连重要的9月非农数据都推迟发布。 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特直言，如果美国总统特朗普认定结束政府停摆状态进行的谈判"毫无进展"，政府将开始大规模裁员。 然而缺失的经济数据随之而来的却是，股、币、金齐创新高的盛世繁景。 1 黄金突破3900关口 "存在一定 ...

Market Reaction - The Japanese capital market experienced significant volatility following the election of high-profile candidate Takashi Hayashi, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 2063.93 points, a 4.51% increase, reaching a historic high of 47833.43 points [1][4] - The market's reaction aligns with expectations, as Hayashi's policies are seen as a continuation of Abenomics, favoring aggressive fiscal policies that drive capital into the stock market [1][4] Currency and Bond Market Impact - Following Hayashi's victory, the Japanese yen weakened significantly, dropping 1.5% against the US dollar and nearing the critical level of 150, while the yen also hit a historical low against the euro [4] - Analysts predict that the yen may depreciate to the range of 150-160 against the dollar, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes will likely slow down [4][5] - The bond market also reacted sharply, with the yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds rising by 14 basis points to 3.52%, driven by concerns over future fiscal expansion [4][5] Economic Challenges Ahead - Hayashi's administration is expected to face significant economic challenges, including persistent inflation affecting the living standards of Japanese citizens and increasing policy uncertainty [5][6] - There is skepticism regarding Hayashi's ability to effectively address high prices and economic strategies, as candidates did not present compelling economic policies during the election [6][7] US-Japan Relations - Hayashi's approach to US relations remains unclear, raising concerns about how she will navigate trade agreements and political risks associated with the US [7] - The existing US-Japan trade agreement, which reduces tariffs on Japanese imports, poses challenges for Japanese companies to maintain profitability amidst high tariffs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Kishi Sanae as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) positions her as a potential first female Prime Minister of Japan, with a shift towards a more moderate and conservative policy stance, alleviating investor concerns about extreme fiscal expansion and pressure on the Bank of Japan [1][2]. Policy Stance - Kishi has moved from a hardline stance to a more pragmatic approach to gain support within the LDP, avoiding previous statements on cutting consumption tax or opposing interest rate hikes [2][3]. - Her campaign emphasized "responsible expansionary fiscal policy," focusing on strategic fiscal mobilization to address social issues, which contrasts with the extreme fiscal expansion associated with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) [2][3]. Economic Policy Influences - Kishi's economic policies are influenced by former advisor Honda Yoshihiro, incorporating traditional measures such as refundable tax credits and the elimination of temporary gasoline taxes [3]. - Concerns regarding consumption tax cuts and increased financial income tax are deemed exaggerated, suggesting that fiscal sustainability risks may not be as significant as perceived [3]. Monetary Policy Alignment - Kishi respects the independence of the Bank of Japan, indicating that the government sets fiscal and monetary policy goals while the Bank decides on the best monetary policy tools [4]. - Her economic views align with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo, both expressing caution regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs and recognizing that current inflation is primarily driven by supply-side factors [4][6]. Tax Policy Outlook - Kishi has indicated that cutting consumption tax is not a priority, and the likelihood of increasing financial income tax in the short term is low [5]. - Any potential increase in financial income tax would depend on achieving a 2% inflation target, rather than being implemented immediately [5]. Key Policy Focus Areas - Kishi's administration will prioritize national security, domestic investment, and structural reforms, with a strong emphasis on "economic security" [7][8]. - Plans include increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP by FY2027, promoting investment in critical sectors like AI and semiconductors, and establishing a Foreign Investment Review Committee [8].

（原标题：刚刚，暴涨超1800点！） 涨爆了！ 今日（10月6日），日本股市高开高走，日经225指数暴涨超1800点，涨幅超过4%，再创历史新高。当 前，互换市场显示，日本央行12月加息的概率从上周五的68%降至41%。 石破茂认为，"安倍经济学"尝试摆脱日本长达数十年的通缩，但过度偏重金融宽松，导致资产价格上 涨、财富分配不均、贫富差距拉大。因此，石破茂执政期间经济政策求稳，重心从"增长"转移到"分 配"，同时也主张扩大税基、提高消费税。 高市早苗在政治上与安倍晋三渊源颇深，也被视为"安倍经济学"的继承人，主张扩张性财政政策。她认 为，经济增长对日本最为重要，要制定规划让日本经济规模在10年内翻倍，这意味着减税、经济刺激和 政府投资。市场人士普遍担心，当下日本债务已超过国内生产总值（GDP）的250%，位居全球前列， 若继续财政扩张甚至增发国债，可能引发金融风险。 此次自民党总裁选举中，与其他四名竞选人主张逐步加息的立场不同，高市早苗避谈明确的货币政策主 张。而在去年的选举中她曾明确反对加息。 与此同时，在美国联邦政府停摆持续，以及市场对避险资产需求旺盛的背景下，金价再度走强。现货黄 金今日突破3900美元 ...

据悉，高市早苗主张财政扩张和政治右倾立场，被视为已故首相安倍晋三的门徒。她呼吁保持宽松货币 政策，认为日本央行不应加息。策略师指出，高市早苗对刺激计划的支持立场有望提振股市，但同时可 能会给日元带来压力。策略师还表示，对日本央行政策的预期可能支撑短期政府债券，而较长期债券则 可能因财政支出增加的担忧而受挫。 他们补充称，高市早苗对经济安全的关注可能会使国防、关键资源和技术股受益。在其领导下，与美国 贸易紧张局势重燃的风险有限，双方在国防、造船和网络安全方面的合作可能会加强。 Lombard Odier Singapore高级宏观策略师Homin Lee表示："我们认为，日本国债期限溢价有适度扩大的 空间，且东证股价指数周一可能因市场对高市早苗领导下可能出台的亲增长政策举措的预期而呈现积极 的价格走势。""美元兑日元可能面临短期上行压力，因为普遍看法是，高市早苗仍然致力于通货再膨 胀，尽管她在自民党领导层竞选前后的相关政策辩论中已缓和了立场。" Homin Lee表示，虽然高市早苗已排除了可能削减消费税的做法，"但关于在她领导下自民党少数派执政 框架稳定性的问题，可能会给日本国债期限溢价带来轻微的上行压力"。 ...

这一政治变动直接搅动了外汇市场。分析师预计，市场短期内可能出现日元抛售，推动美元兑日元汇率 测试150的关键水平。基于此，该行建议结束其自7月21日以来持有的美元兑日元空头交易建议。 市场的下一个焦点将是高市内阁的关键人事任命，特别是财务大臣人选，以及她对日本央行政策独立性 的公开表态。这些信号将决定日元疲软趋势能否持续，并为"早苗经济学"的真实面貌提供初步线索。 "早苗经济学"：三支箭，新重点 日本政坛风云突变，高市早苗 的意外胜出，正将市场目光引向一套可能重塑日本经济格局的新政策 ——"早苗经济学"。 高市早苗意外当选日本执政党自民党新总裁，预示着一套被称为"早苗经济学"的经济政策即将登场。 根据追风交易台消息，野村证券10月5日发布的报告，这套政策被市场解读为前首相安倍晋三"安倍经济 学"的延续，但重心明显向财政扩张倾斜，其对日本货币政策、财政纪律及日元汇率的深远影响正引发 投资者密切关注。 据该报告分析，前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗的胜出，出乎多数市场参与者的预料，他们此前普遍 预期小泉进次郎会当选。高市预计将于10月15日左右被提名为新任首相，随后将立即投入一系列外交与 内政议程，包括月底与美国总 ...

随着被视为已故日本首相安倍晋三门徒的，日本金融市场正迅速为"安倍经济学"的可能回归进行定价。 与此同时，日元兑美元汇率大幅走弱1.5%，逼近150这一备受关注的关键水平。而日元兑欧元汇率已跌至历史新低。 债券市场同样上演剧烈波动，对未来财政扩张的担忧推动长期利率走高，日本40年期国债收益率一度飙升14个基点至3.52%。 高市早苗即将成为日本新任首相，市场预期她将重启以大规模财政刺激和超宽松货币政策为核心的经济议程，这迅速点燃了日本股市，并引发了 外汇市场的剧烈波动。 周一东京市场开盘后，日经225指数应声大涨超过4%，创下数月来最大单日涨幅，日本东证指数涨3%。 这些走势反映出投资者正在积极部署所谓的"高市早苗交易"（Takaichi trade）。写道，市场普遍预期，高市早苗主张财政扩张和政治右倾立场， 被视为已故首相安倍晋三的门徒。她呼吁保持宽松货币政策，认为日本央行不应加息。 交易员表示，"安倍经济学"时代的回归可能会进一步削弱日元、提振股市，并导致长期日本国债收益率大幅上升。据美银美林策略师分析，高市 早苗的胜选可能导致日元走弱和日本国债收益率曲线的陡峭化。 "安倍经济学"继承者的政策蓝图 据央视新 ...

随着被视为已故日本首相安倍晋三门徒的高市早苗赢得执政党党首选举，日本金融市场正迅速为"安倍经济学"的可能回归进行定价。 高市早苗即将成为日本新任首相，市场预期她将重启以大规模财政刺激和超宽松货币政策为核心的经济议程，这迅速点燃了日本股市，并引发了 外汇市场的剧烈波动。 周一东京市场开盘后，日经225指数应声大涨超过4%，创下数月来最大单日涨幅，日本东证指数涨3%。 与此同时，日元兑美元汇率大幅走弱1.5%，逼近150这一备受关注的关键水平。而日元兑欧元汇率已跌至历史新低。 "安倍经济学"继承者的政策蓝图 据央视新闻，当地时间10月4日，日本执政党自民党总裁选举结果揭晓，高市早苗击败小泉进次郎等多名竞争对手，成功当选自民党新一任总裁。 而高市早苗的经济政策主张带有鲜明的"安倍经济学"烙印。在当选后的新闻发布会上，她承诺将迅速采取措施应对通胀，政策选项包括增加对地 方政府的补贴，甚至不排除将消费税下调。 债券市场同样上演剧烈波动，对未来财政扩张的担忧推动长期利率走高，日本40年期国债收益率一度飙升14个基点至3.52%。 这些走势反映出投资者正在积极部署所谓的"高市早苗交易"（Takaichi trade）。华尔 ...