[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|电力设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 电改系列 | 电改系列:容量电价星火燎原， | 2025-09-14 | | --- | --- | | 新型储能加快发展 | | | 电改系列:新能源全电量入市， | 2025-02-10 | | 电力市场化迎来重要变革 | | 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 4 全国性容量电价机制出台，调节性电源迎发展东风 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-31 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]陈昕 SAC 执证号：S0260522080008 SFC CE No. BWV823 010-59136699 gfchenxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈子坤 SAC 执证号：S0260513080001 010-59136690 chenzikun@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈子坤并非香港证券及期 ...

业内人士表示，容量电价机制与电力市场交易、价格机制密切相关。《通知》在完善容量电价机制的同 时，对电力市场交易和价格机制作了相应优化完善，并首次在国家层面明确建立电网侧独立新型储能容 量电价机制。其中，在电网侧独立新型储能方面，各地可根据当地煤电容量电价标准，结合放电时长和 顶峰时贡献等因素，建立电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制。 新型储能容量电价定规则 电力市场交易机制再完善 据国家发展改革委网站1月30日消息，国家发展改革委、国家能源局近日发布《关于完善发电侧容量电 价机制的通知》。《通知》明确，建立电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制。对服务于电力系统安全运 行、未参与配储的电网侧独立新型储能电站，各地可给予容量电价。 根据《通知》，容量电价水平以当地煤电容量电价标准为基础，根据顶峰能力按一定比例折算(折算比 例为满功率连续放电时长除以全年最长净负荷高峰持续时长，最高不超过1)，并考虑电力市场建设进 展、电力系统需求等因素确定。电网侧独立新型储能电站实行清单制管理，管理要求由国家能源局根据 电力供需形势分析及保供举措等另行明确，项目具体清单由省级能源主管部门会同价格主管部门制定。 "容量电价机制与电力市场交易、 ...

风险提示及免责条款 近日国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合印发《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》。《通知》提出， 适应新型电力系统和电力市场体系建设需要，分类完善煤电、气电、抽水蓄能、新型储能容量电价机 制。一是各地结合实际提高煤电容量电价标准，可参照煤电建立气电容量电价机制；二是对近年新开工 的抽水蓄能电站，按照弥补平均成本的原则制定当地统一的容量电价；三是建立电网侧独立新型储能容 量电价机制，结合放电时长和顶峰时贡献等因素确定容量电价标准。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Overall Viewpoint - The National Grid is expected to reach a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," representing a 40% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan," with an average annual compound growth rate of 7%, slightly exceeding expectations. This investment is driven by counter-cyclical adjustments, benefiting areas such as ultra-high voltage, main distribution networks, smart technology, and key projects like hydropower and clean energy bases [4]. Group 1: Hydrogen and Ammonia - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the hydrogen and ammonia sector is expected to benefit from China's future industry developments and the EU carbon tariff in 2026. Shanghai is progressing rapidly, with plans to establish an international green fuel refueling and trading center by 2030, targeting a million-ton level for green methanol and biofuels [5]. Group 2: AIDC Power Supply - The domestic AIDC construction is promising and can align with AI applications for sector rotation. Internationally, the HVDC solutions are expected to expand, and progress in SST technology cooperation is anticipated. The capital expenditure for North American data centers in 2027 will be assessed during the US stock annual report period [5]. Group 3: Power Grid - A resonant pattern is expected to form between overseas and domestic power grid investments, with positive expectations for both. The construction of the hydropower grid and the integration of power and computing resources are areas that require close monitoring due to lower expectations [5]. Group 4: Lithium Battery and Energy Storage - The demand side for lithium batteries is currently competitive, with domestic energy storage tenders for 2026 still needing tracking. The overseas energy storage market is influenced by North American computing and electricity shortages, while domestic storage follows policy expectations and lithium material price trends. The lithium battery industry is currently thriving, but after the price increase expectations are realized, stock prices may lack upward momentum, making it essential to focus on new technologies like solid-state batteries [5].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental sectors [1]. Core Insights - The National Grid's fixed asset investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, with an average annual growth rate of 7%, slightly exceeding expectations. Key areas benefiting from this investment include ultra-high voltage, main distribution networks, smart technology, and major projects [3]. - The domestic energy storage project bidding scale for 2025 is projected to be 447 GWh, with a significant portion being non-collective bidding [3]. - The report highlights the potential for hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol industries, particularly in Shanghai, which aims to establish an international green fuel refueling and trading center by 2030 [4]. Summary by Sections Power Equipment and New Energy - The report emphasizes the importance of the National Grid's investment and its implications for various sectors, including ultra-high voltage and smart grid technologies [3]. - It suggests monitoring companies like TBEA, Pinggao Electric, and XJ Electric for potential investment opportunities [4]. Energy Storage - The report notes a continuous increase in the domestic energy storage market, with significant project bids already in place for 2026 [8]. - It highlights the ongoing demand for energy storage solutions in both domestic and international markets, particularly in North America and Ukraine [8]. Wind Power - The report indicates a substantial increase in new wind power installations, with a projected 82.5 GW added in 2025, marking a 59.42% year-on-year growth [10]. - It suggests that companies involved in offshore wind projects in Europe are likely to benefit from upcoming orders and market growth [23]. Lithium Battery and Materials - The report discusses the dynamics of lithium battery materials, noting a recovery in demand and price stabilization across various segments, including lithium carbonate and iron phosphate lithium [25][27]. - It emphasizes the potential for a surge in demand due to changes in export tax policies and the ongoing transition to solid-state batteries [28]. Environmental Sector - The report maintains a positive outlook on the environmental sector, driven by increased investments and policy support for clean energy initiatives [1][4]. - It suggests that companies involved in hydrogen and ammonia production, as well as those in the energy storage sector, are well-positioned for growth [4].

Group 1 - The domestic power grid investment is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan per year during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a projected average annual investment of 1 trillion yuan during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - The State Grid Corporation's fixed asset investment is anticipated to reach 4 trillion yuan, representing a 40% increase compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan" investment [1] - The investment from the Southern Power Grid during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be around 1 trillion yuan, with investments in 2026 projected to be 700 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - A significant influx of incremental funds is expected in the A-share market in 2026, which may sustain a slow bull market [2] - The first quarter of 2026 is projected to be a peak period for the maturity of fixed deposits, with funds likely flowing from insurance and wealth management channels into the equity market [2] - Approximately one-third of the total fund inflow is expected to come from medium- and long-term funds, which have become a key foundation for micro liquidity in the A-share market [2] Group 3 - The domestic energy storage demand is projected to see significant growth from 2025 to 2027, with expected capacities of 154 GWh, 254 GWh, and 337 GWh, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 40.2%, 65.2%, and 32.5% respectively [3] - The global energy storage market is also expected to grow, with new installations projected at 279 GWh, 423 GWh, and 563 GWh from 2025 to 2027, showing year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 52%, and 33% respectively [3] - The introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms in multiple provinces is anticipated to enhance the economic viability of energy storage, marking a turning point for the industry [3]

Domestic Market - The capacity pricing mechanism is expected to be implemented in multiple provinces, marking a turning point for the economic viability of energy storage [1] - In regions like Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia, stable supporting policies for energy storage are anticipated, with Gansu's independent energy storage IRR capital expected to reach 9.9% [1] - Domestic energy storage demand is projected to reach 154 GWh, 254 GWh, and 337 GWh in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 40.2%, 65.2%, and 32.5% [1] International Market - In the United States, the construction of data centers is driving rapid growth in energy storage demand, with 2025 being identified as the "demand year" for AIDC [1] - An additional 13 GW of data centers in the U.S. is expected to generate 10.7 to 25 GWh of energy storage demand in 2026 [1] - In Europe, there is a pressing need for flexible resources, improved business models, and a shift in subsidies, leading to a noticeable acceleration in large-scale energy storage development [1] Global Outlook - The global energy storage market is expected to see new installations of approximately 279 GWh, 423 GWh, and 563 GWh from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 52%, and 33% respectively [1] - The recent large-scale power outages in Europe have created new demands for grid-connected energy storage, which may optimize the competitive landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent revisions to the pricing and cost auditing methods for electricity transmission and distribution aim to enhance the regulatory framework, promote the consumption of renewable energy, and potentially lower electricity prices while ensuring reasonable returns for grid companies [2][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The National Development and Reform Commission has revised four key pricing methods to improve the regulatory system for electricity transmission and distribution [2]. - New standards for loan interest rates will more accurately reflect the actual financing costs of grid companies [2]. - The revised methods will allow for adjustments in the return on equity for provincial grid companies to ensure balanced development and fair pricing across regions [3]. Group 2: Pricing Mechanisms - The new regulations propose a single capacity pricing mechanism for projects that facilitate the nearby consumption of renewable energy, clarifying the responsibilities of grid companies, power generation companies, and users [3]. - The synchronization of cost audits for cross-provincial and regional projects aims to enhance efficiency in cost and price regulation [4]. - The sharing of transmission revenue from actual line loss rates will now be handled monthly, allowing for more dynamic adjustments based on performance [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and China Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [5]. - The investment outlook for the thermal power sector is optimistic due to expected increases in capacity pricing and the potential for revaluation of thermal assets [8]. - The report highlights the importance of national thermal power enterprises over regional ones, citing better profit distribution and growth potential [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Performance - The public fund's heavy holdings in the utility sector have reached a historical low, indicating a potential undervaluation and opportunity for investment [11][12]. - The thermal power sector has seen a decrease in holdings due to market risk appetite shifting towards more aggressive sectors, despite some companies still attracting institutional interest [12]. - The hydropower sector has experienced a decline in holdings, but long-term value remains strong, particularly for companies with attractive dividend yields [13]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - The nuclear power sector has seen a decrease in holdings due to weak performance in mid-year reports and market sentiment, but its long-term value is expected to remain stable [14]. - The renewable energy sector has faced challenges, but there is a focus on undervalued companies with strong alpha characteristics, indicating a shift towards high-quality development [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent policy developments in China's energy sector, particularly focusing on the promotion of new energy consumption and regulation, highlighting the importance of establishing a capacity pricing mechanism for new energy storage alongside traditional coal and pumped storage power [4][5]. Group 1: Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released guidelines to enhance the consumption and regulation of new energy [4]. - The guidelines emphasize the need to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for coal power, pumped storage, and new energy storage, indicating that new energy storage may be aligned with coal power in terms of capacity pricing [5]. Group 2: Regional Initiatives - Inner Mongolia will continue to provide compensation for energy storage in 2026, although the compensation standard will decrease by 20% from 2025, remaining at a relatively high level [6]. - The compensation standard for independent new energy storage stations in Inner Mongolia is set at 0.28 yuan/kWh for 2026, down from 0.35 yuan/kWh in 2025, but still offers a favorable economic outlook for projects [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The capacity pricing mechanism is expected to evolve, ensuring the healthy and orderly development of the energy storage industry, with costs being passed on to commercial users [7]. - The profitability of energy storage stations is influenced by the installation of wind and solar power, creating a "seesaw effect" where increased storage capacity can lead to decreased capacity fees and narrowed arbitrage margins [8].

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Haitong indicates that the nationwide promotion of the capacity electricity price mechanism will enhance the economic viability of energy storage in more provinces, leading to significant growth in the sector [1][2] - The introduction of discharge compensation in Inner Mongolia is expected to greatly stimulate energy storage demand in 2026 [1][3] Summary by Sections Capacity Electricity Price Mechanism - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have released guidelines to promote the consumption and regulation of renewable energy, aiming to meet an annual demand for the reasonable consumption of over 200 million kilowatts of new energy nationwide [2] - The guidelines emphasize the need to improve the capacity electricity price mechanism for coal power, pumped storage, and new energy storage, which is a first-time inclusion of new energy storage in a formal policy document [2] Inner Mongolia Energy Storage Compensation - The compensation standard for independent new energy storage stations discharging to the public grid in 2026 is set at 0.28 yuan/kWh, a decrease from 0.35 yuan/kWh in 2025, but still beneficial for the economic viability of energy storage [3] - The policy is seen as a continuation of the previous year's framework and is expected to significantly boost energy storage demand in 2026 [3] Market Trends and Statistics - In October 2025, the newly added bidding volume for domestic energy storage was 8.39 GW/27.08 GWh, representing year-on-year growth of 24% and 29%, with Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Gansu contributing over half of the market demand [3] - The average bidding price for 4-hour energy storage systems increased by 11% to a range of 0.41-0.5 yuan/Wh, with a weighted average price of 0.44 yuan/Wh [3]