特朗普（资料图） 据新华社消息，7月2日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上高调宣布：美国与越南达成贸易协议。仅仅72小时后，柬埔寨政府紧随其 后，于7月4日宣布与美国在关税谈判中达成协议。这两个东南亚国家在美国设定的7月9日对等关税暂缓期大限前，选择了快速妥协。 越南的协议堪称一场不对等的交易。根据特朗普的表述，越南将对美国商品全面取消关税，敞开市场大门。作为"回报"，美国将对越南输美 商品的关税从原先威胁的46%降至20%——但这仍远高于越南给予美国的零关税水平。更值得警惕的是，协议中明确规定：对经越南转口的 第三国商品将征收高达40%的重税。这一条款被广泛认为直指中国产业链。过去数年，为规避美国对华高关税，不少中企通过在越设厂组装 或贴牌再出口美国。40%的关税几乎掐断了这种迂回路径，迫使产业链直面冲击。 特朗普（资料图） 柬埔寨的让步同样充满无奈。这个被中国网友亲切称为"柬钢"的国家，此前面临美国开出的49%超高关税——这是特朗普政府针对东南亚国 家提出的最高税率。2024年柬埔寨262亿美元的出口总额中，近四成销往美国。如此重度依赖，使得柬埔寨在谈判中筹码有限。虽然协议具 体税率尚未公布，但分析 ...

Group 1 - The United States has reached a new trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on all goods from Vietnam while allowing zero-tariff market access for U.S. goods to Vietnam [1] - The agreement comes just days before the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension period under Trump's "reciprocal tariff policy," which could lead to increased tariffs on exports from dozens of countries to the U.S. [1] - Goods from third countries that are transshipped through Vietnam to the U.S. will incur a 40% tariff, aimed at preventing circumvention of U.S. trade barriers [1] Group 2 - Trump highlighted the potential for large displacement vehicles, such as SUVs, to become bestsellers in the Vietnamese market, indicating a positive outlook for U.S. automotive exports [3] - Following the announcement, Lululemon Athletica's stock experienced volatility due to its reliance on Vietnam as a major production hub, but the market quickly adjusted, leading to a 0.75% increase in its stock price [3]

【导读】美国跟越南敲定了贸易协议 中国基金报记者 泰勒 关税大消息来了！ 北京时间7月2日晚间，美国总统特朗普宣布，已与越南达成一项贸易协议。这是在两国经过数周紧张的外交磋商后取得的结 果，也是在下周最后期限之前的关键时刻作出的 宣布 。若未能及时达成协议，美国原计划对越南进口商品加征更高的关税。 特朗普周三在" Truth Social "平台发布声明称："我刚刚与越南达成了一项贸易协议，详情将随后公布。" 根据特朗普周三在社交媒体上的声明，依据该协议， 越南出口至美国的商品，将需向美国缴纳20%的关税，而所谓"转口"贸易的商品 则将被征收40%的关税。 同时，特朗普称， 越南已同意取消对美国进口商品的所有关税。 继此前与英国和中国分别达成协议后，这是特朗普政府宣布的第三个贸易协议。各主要贸易伙伴均在7月9日的最后期限前，加 紧与美国达成贸易安排。 特朗普写道："换句话说，他们将'向美国开放市场'，这意味着我们可以以零关税的形式向越南销售产品。" 他还表示，这是在 与越共中央总书记苏林（To Lam）会晤后达成的协议。 今年4月初，特朗普在推出所谓"对等关税"政策时，曾对越南征收46%的关税，后将其下调至1 ...

Core Insights - The Trump administration's implementation of a reciprocal tariff policy resulted in additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% on most imported goods, which was later adjusted to a 10% rate due to market volatility [1][2] - The tariff policy led to a significant increase in tariff revenue, with April's revenue reaching $17.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 130%, and May's revenue surpassing $24 billion, a 270% increase, setting historical records [2] - Despite the increase in tariffs, inflation rates remained stable, with the core CPI showing a consistent year-on-year increase of around 2.8% since March, and the overall CPI rising only 2.4% in May [4] Tariff Revenue Analysis - Tariff revenue for June was projected to exceed $28 billion, indicating a continuous record-breaking trend over three months [2] - The 10% tariff rate appears to balance corporate profits while maintaining product supply in the U.S. market, thus enhancing tariff revenue [2] Inflation and Price Stability - The anticipated inflation surge did not materialize, with May's major goods showing only a 0.3% year-on-year price increase, and some goods, like televisions and smartphones, experiencing price declines of 9.8% and 14.3%, respectively [4][6] - The automotive sector, despite facing a 25% tariff, saw a minimal price increase of only 0.4% [4] Future Implications - U.S. importers have been stockpiling low-tariff goods prior to the policy implementation, which has temporarily masked the impact of the tariff increases on prices [6] - The delayed effect of price transmission through the supply chain suggests that the full impact of tariffs may not be felt until later, with July being a critical month [6] - Importers are currently absorbing some of the tariff costs, but this situation is unsustainable in the long term, especially if tariffs are further increased [6] - Predictions indicate that the average effective tariff rate may rise to 15% in the coming months, with core CPI expected to increase to between 3% and 3.5% by the end of 2025, suggesting potential future price pressures on consumers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent G7 tax agreement appears to be a compromise between the US and its allies, but it reveals the US's strategic maneuvering to gain long-term benefits while temporarily conceding to its allies [1][3]. Group 1: Tax Agreement Details - The G7 agreement allows US tech giants to be exempt from the OECD's global minimum corporate tax rules, preventing them from paying back taxes in overseas markets [1][3]. - In exchange, the US Congress must repeal Section 899 of the US Competition Act, which authorizes the government to impose retaliatory tariffs on countries that discriminate against US companies [1][3]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The agreement is seen as a tactical retreat by the US to secure strategic cooperation from allies in economic containment against China [3][4]. - The negotiations were dominated by the US, which threatened to initiate a "301 investigation" against the EU's digital tax and impose tariffs on European goods, leading to swift concessions from European leaders [3][4]. Group 3: European Challenges - Europe faces a triple dilemma: ceding fiscal sovereignty, being bound by US policies towards China, and internal divisions among member states regarding their stance on China [4][6]. - The new tax agreement indirectly acknowledges the "super-national treatment" of US companies, resulting in significant annual tax losses for the EU [4][6]. Group 4: China's Response - China has implemented export controls on critical metals like gallium and germanium, which are essential for Western countries, highlighting its leverage in the trade conflict [9][11]. - The Chinese government is also working to divide the US-EU alliance by approving significant orders from Airbus while halting purchases from Boeing, demonstrating the potential costs of decoupling from China [9][11]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The sustainability of US concessions is uncertain, as historical patterns suggest that the US may revert to aggressive trade tactics if allies hesitate in their pressure on China [11]. - The potential for European strategic autonomy is being tested, with leaders like Macron advocating for independence from major powers, which could pose long-term risks for US influence [11].

Fiscal Impact - The new tariff policy has shown immediate revenue effects, with the U.S. Treasury collecting $17.43 billion in tariffs in the first month and $24 billion in May, a year-on-year increase of 270% [3] - By June 26, the cumulative tariff revenue reached $27.26 billion, with expectations to surpass $28 billion by the end of the month, indicating a significant increase in tax base without triggering trade shrinkage risks [3] Price Stability - Despite soaring tariff revenues, consumer prices have remained stable, with the core CPI growth staying below 3% for three consecutive months since March, and an overall CPI increase of only 2.4% in May [5] - The price of major consumer goods rose by just 0.3% in May, with significant price drops in televisions and smartphones, and even the automotive sector, which faced a 25% tariff, saw a price increase limited to 0.4% [5][7] Supply Chain Dynamics - Importers engaged in preemptive purchasing before the tariff implementation, creating a buffer of inventory that delayed price increases for several months [7] - The lag in supply chain adjustments means that the current consumer market reflects pre-tariff cost structures, with potential price impacts expected to manifest in the third quarter [7] Long-term Concerns - As inventory depletes, the ability of importers to absorb tariff costs will be tested, leading to inevitable cost pass-through to consumers [9] - Economic institutions are cautious about the long-term effects of the tariff policy, with predictions that the average effective tariff rate could rise to the 15% range by the end of the year, potentially pushing core CPI to 3% to 3.5% [9] Global Trade Implications - The U.S.-led tariff strategy is reshaping international trade dynamics, with emerging market economies facing challenges and multinational corporations adopting more conservative investment strategies [11] - The eventual adjustment of global supply chains and the pressure on importers' profit margins may lead U.S. consumers to confront the true costs of the tariff policy [11]

Group 1: Stablecoin Legislation and Market Impact - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation officially legislated, effective August 2025, marking the first clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, providing institutional support for the digital financial ecosystem [1] - The initial market reaction indicates a concentration of funds on compliant technology service providers, reflecting a "regulatory-driven, technology realization" phenomenon [1] - Investors should focus on companies in Hong Kong with compliance application capabilities, technical reserves, and regulatory experience, as these firms will likely enter the regulatory "whitelist" and gain long-term advantages [1] - The essence of stablecoins lies not in their value but in their ability to reconstruct the "USD liquidity path," bypassing SWIFT and traditional banking systems, transforming USD into on-chain circulating assets [1] - Companies like Hengsheng Electronics, Tianyang Technology, and Sifang Chuangxin, while not issuers, are expected to become the "foundation" of the on-chain financial system, providing core functions such as payment channels, identity verification, and custody auditing, leading to valuation leaps [1] Group 2: Ant Group's Strategy in Stablecoin Ecosystem - Ant Group's international and digital technology arms are targeting stablecoin license applications from both cross-border fund operations and underlying technology infrastructure perspectives, showcasing a dual approach in the global stablecoin ecosystem [2] - Ant International processes over $1 trillion annually in cross-border transactions, with $300 billion already operating through blockchain technology; successful conversion to stablecoin clearing paths could support explosive growth in practical scenarios [2] - Ant Digital Technology is focusing on building the necessary underlying service capabilities for future stablecoin circulation through technology sandboxes and RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) [2] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation sets high regulatory standards, including a minimum capital requirement of HKD 25 million and 100% reserve custody, which Ant has already navigated through regulatory sandbox tests [2] - Ant's established payment network and international cooperation position it favorably to embed stablecoins into core scenarios such as cross-border e-commerce, overseas remittances, and international fund pool management [3] Group 3: Industrial Metals Trading Opportunities - In April 2025, Trump's proposed reciprocal tariff policy triggered a panic sell-off in industrial metals; however, a subsequent 90-day implementation delay released "negotiation signals," leading to a rebound in the non-ferrous sector, which has returned to pre-tariff levels [3] - Despite recent signs of a temporary easing in US-China trade relations, the 24% reciprocal tariff remains in place, and with strong inflation/employment data from Europe and the US, the difficulty of mid-term favorable outcomes increases [3] Group 4: Automotive Industry and Recall Issues - On June 13, 2025, Mercedes-Benz announced three recall notices in one day, involving 16,100 vehicles across multiple models, including EQC, A-Class, CLA, GLA, C-Class, GLC SUV, S-Class, and EQE [4] - In a competitive landscape for smart electric vehicles, user reputation and product safety are critical for repeat purchases, and frequent recalls significantly diminish brand premium [4] - BMS system errors may expose integration and testing inadequacies between Mercedes-Benz and partners like CATL, highlighting the need for investors to focus on suppliers with advantages in system stability and safety design [5] Group 5: Internet Television Subscription Regulations - In mid-June 2025, China's National Radio and Television Administration initiated a special governance on automatic renewal of internet television subscriptions, addressing consumer pain points such as "deduction without reminder" and "complex cancellation" [6] - The previous model of "default renewal + hidden cancellation" was a primary monetization method for internet TV platforms, with some OTT platforms relying on "renewal forgetfulness" to maintain user retention [6] - New regulations require user "active consent + advance reminder," likely leading to a significant decline in renewal rates, particularly affecting marginal paying users and inactive user groups [6] - Smaller OTT integrators and content providers may exit due to cost pressures, while platforms with compliance capabilities and mature user operation systems (e.g., Mango TV, CCTV Video, Aurora TV) are better positioned to adapt [6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 2025 年 06 月 15 日 一文读懂美国的《国家紧急状态法》 宏观 ABC 系列之七 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年特朗普政府利用 NEA 与 IEEPA 组合，以国家安全和贸易逆差为由，绕 过国会批准程序单方面宣布紧急状态，并对中国、加拿大、墨西哥及其他主要贸易 伙伴征收普遍高额关税。这一行动迅速遭遇法律挑战，美国国际贸易法庭（CIT） 裁定其违宪并颁布禁令，但随后被联邦巡回上诉法院暂时中止执行。本文将全面解 析美国的《国家紧急状态法》，从而了解特朗普是如何通过 NEA 与 IEEPA 组合， 绕开国会实行所谓的"对等关税"政策。 NEA 与 IEEPA：美国总统紧急权力的制度化与扩张。20 世纪 70 年代，美国国会 为防止总统滥用紧急状态权力，通过了《国家紧急状态法》（NEA），设立程序性限 制并规定紧急状态自动失效机制，试图加强国会监督。然 ...

Group 1 - The fifth round of US-Japan tariff negotiations has reached a deadlock due to significant disagreements among key US representatives, including Treasury Secretary Yellen, Commerce Secretary Raimondo, and Trade Representative Tai, leading to a temporary pause in talks [1][3] - Japan is attempting to sacrifice its interests with China to appease the US, proposing measures to limit Chinese influence in exchange for tariff concessions from the US [3][10] - Japan's proposal includes establishing partnerships with the US in critical mineral sectors like rare earths, despite its heavy reliance on Chinese imports, which could negatively impact its own industries [4][5] Group 2 - Japan's commitment to purchase more US semiconductor products and assist in semiconductor manufacturing aims to curb China's semiconductor industry growth, but it risks straining Japan's own trade relations with China [7] - Japan plans to increase imports of US liquefied natural gas to fill the market gap left by reduced Chinese imports, which may lead to higher costs and instability in energy supply [7] - The collaboration with the US on building icebreakers may weaken Japan's shipbuilding industry, diverting resources and reducing competitiveness in other ship types [8] Group 3 - Japan's strategy to use measures against China as leverage in tariff negotiations reflects a long-standing pro-US diplomatic stance, which may backfire economically and politically [9][10] - China's response to Japan's actions could include tightening export policies on rare earths and reassessing trade partnerships, potentially leading to economic repercussions for Japan [12] - The internal divisions within the US government regarding tariff policies add uncertainty to the negotiations, making it unclear whether Japan's concessions will lead to the desired tariff reductions [12]

Core Points - The recent negotiations between the U.S. and Japan regarding tariff issues ended without an agreement, leading to a postponement of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's visit to the U.S. [1][5] Group 1: Negotiation Context - The Japanese delegation, led by Economic Revitalization Minister Ryōsuke Akizuki, engaged in the fifth round of tariff negotiations in Washington, aiming for tariff exemptions by increasing investments in the U.S. and boosting imports from the U.S. [2] - The U.S. has implemented a "reciprocal tariff" policy since President Trump took office, significantly impacting Japan, particularly with the recent steel and aluminum tariffs [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. Negotiation Dynamics - During the negotiations, key U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, reportedly had internal disputes, complicating the discussions with Japan [3][4]. - The differing stances among U.S. officials, with Mnuchin viewed as a moderate and Ross as a hardliner, created confusion for the Japanese side regarding the U.S. government's true intentions [3][4]. Group 3: Outcomes and Future Plans - The Japanese side indicated that no common ground was found during the negotiations, and Ishiba emphasized that negotiations would not proceed at the expense of national interests [6][7]. - Due to significant differences, Ishiba's planned visit to the U.S. was postponed, although Akizuki is expected to visit the U.S. again soon, with further discussions planned during the G7 summit in Canada [7][8].