Group 1: Stablecoin Legislation and Market Impact - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation officially legislated, effective August 2025, marking the first clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, providing institutional support for the digital financial ecosystem [1] - The initial market reaction indicates a concentration of funds on compliant technology service providers, reflecting a "regulatory-driven, technology realization" phenomenon [1] - Investors should focus on companies in Hong Kong with compliance application capabilities, technical reserves, and regulatory experience, as these firms will likely enter the regulatory "whitelist" and gain long-term advantages [1] - The essence of stablecoins lies not in their value but in their ability to reconstruct the "USD liquidity path," bypassing SWIFT and traditional banking systems, transforming USD into on-chain circulating assets [1] - Companies like Hengsheng Electronics, Tianyang Technology, and Sifang Chuangxin, while not issuers, are expected to become the "foundation" of the on-chain financial system, providing core functions such as payment channels, identity verification, and custody auditing, leading to valuation leaps [1] Group 2: Ant Group's Strategy in Stablecoin Ecosystem - Ant Group's international and digital technology arms are targeting stablecoin license applications from both cross-border fund operations and underlying technology infrastructure perspectives, showcasing a dual approach in the global stablecoin ecosystem [2] - Ant International processes over $1 trillion annually in cross-border transactions, with $300 billion already operating through blockchain technology; successful conversion to stablecoin clearing paths could support explosive growth in practical scenarios [2] - Ant Digital Technology is focusing on building the necessary underlying service capabilities for future stablecoin circulation through technology sandboxes and RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) [2] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation sets high regulatory standards, including a minimum capital requirement of HKD 25 million and 100% reserve custody, which Ant has already navigated through regulatory sandbox tests [2] - Ant's established payment network and international cooperation position it favorably to embed stablecoins into core scenarios such as cross-border e-commerce, overseas remittances, and international fund pool management [3] Group 3: Industrial Metals Trading Opportunities - In April 2025, Trump's proposed reciprocal tariff policy triggered a panic sell-off in industrial metals; however, a subsequent 90-day implementation delay released "negotiation signals," leading to a rebound in the non-ferrous sector, which has returned to pre-tariff levels [3] - Despite recent signs of a temporary easing in US-China trade relations, the 24% reciprocal tariff remains in place, and with strong inflation/employment data from Europe and the US, the difficulty of mid-term favorable outcomes increases [3] Group 4: Automotive Industry and Recall Issues - On June 13, 2025, Mercedes-Benz announced three recall notices in one day, involving 16,100 vehicles across multiple models, including EQC, A-Class, CLA, GLA, C-Class, GLC SUV, S-Class, and EQE [4] - In a competitive landscape for smart electric vehicles, user reputation and product safety are critical for repeat purchases, and frequent recalls significantly diminish brand premium [4] - BMS system errors may expose integration and testing inadequacies between Mercedes-Benz and partners like CATL, highlighting the need for investors to focus on suppliers with advantages in system stability and safety design [5] Group 5: Internet Television Subscription Regulations - In mid-June 2025, China's National Radio and Television Administration initiated a special governance on automatic renewal of internet television subscriptions, addressing consumer pain points such as "deduction without reminder" and "complex cancellation" [6] - The previous model of "default renewal + hidden cancellation" was a primary monetization method for internet TV platforms, with some OTT platforms relying on "renewal forgetfulness" to maintain user retention [6] - New regulations require user "active consent + advance reminder," likely leading to a significant decline in renewal rates, particularly affecting marginal paying users and inactive user groups [6] - Smaller OTT integrators and content providers may exit due to cost pressures, while platforms with compliance capabilities and mature user operation systems (e.g., Mango TV, CCTV Video, Aurora TV) are better positioned to adapt [6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 2025 年 06 月 15 日 一文读懂美国的《国家紧急状态法》 宏观 ABC 系列之七 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年特朗普政府利用 NEA 与 IEEPA 组合，以国家安全和贸易逆差为由，绕 过国会批准程序单方面宣布紧急状态，并对中国、加拿大、墨西哥及其他主要贸易 伙伴征收普遍高额关税。这一行动迅速遭遇法律挑战，美国国际贸易法庭（CIT） 裁定其违宪并颁布禁令，但随后被联邦巡回上诉法院暂时中止执行。本文将全面解 析美国的《国家紧急状态法》，从而了解特朗普是如何通过 NEA 与 IEEPA 组合， 绕开国会实行所谓的"对等关税"政策。 NEA 与 IEEPA：美国总统紧急权力的制度化与扩张。20 世纪 70 年代，美国国会 为防止总统滥用紧急状态权力，通过了《国家紧急状态法》（NEA），设立程序性限 制并规定紧急状态自动失效机制，试图加强国会监督。然 ...

Group 1 - The fifth round of US-Japan tariff negotiations has reached a deadlock due to significant disagreements among key US representatives, including Treasury Secretary Yellen, Commerce Secretary Raimondo, and Trade Representative Tai, leading to a temporary pause in talks [1][3] - Japan is attempting to sacrifice its interests with China to appease the US, proposing measures to limit Chinese influence in exchange for tariff concessions from the US [3][10] - Japan's proposal includes establishing partnerships with the US in critical mineral sectors like rare earths, despite its heavy reliance on Chinese imports, which could negatively impact its own industries [4][5] Group 2 - Japan's commitment to purchase more US semiconductor products and assist in semiconductor manufacturing aims to curb China's semiconductor industry growth, but it risks straining Japan's own trade relations with China [7] - Japan plans to increase imports of US liquefied natural gas to fill the market gap left by reduced Chinese imports, which may lead to higher costs and instability in energy supply [7] - The collaboration with the US on building icebreakers may weaken Japan's shipbuilding industry, diverting resources and reducing competitiveness in other ship types [8] Group 3 - Japan's strategy to use measures against China as leverage in tariff negotiations reflects a long-standing pro-US diplomatic stance, which may backfire economically and politically [9][10] - China's response to Japan's actions could include tightening export policies on rare earths and reassessing trade partnerships, potentially leading to economic repercussions for Japan [12] - The internal divisions within the US government regarding tariff policies add uncertainty to the negotiations, making it unclear whether Japan's concessions will lead to the desired tariff reductions [12]

Core Points - The recent negotiations between the U.S. and Japan regarding tariff issues ended without an agreement, leading to a postponement of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's visit to the U.S. [1][5] Group 1: Negotiation Context - The Japanese delegation, led by Economic Revitalization Minister Ryōsuke Akizuki, engaged in the fifth round of tariff negotiations in Washington, aiming for tariff exemptions by increasing investments in the U.S. and boosting imports from the U.S. [2] - The U.S. has implemented a "reciprocal tariff" policy since President Trump took office, significantly impacting Japan, particularly with the recent steel and aluminum tariffs [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. Negotiation Dynamics - During the negotiations, key U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, reportedly had internal disputes, complicating the discussions with Japan [3][4]. - The differing stances among U.S. officials, with Mnuchin viewed as a moderate and Ross as a hardliner, created confusion for the Japanese side regarding the U.S. government's true intentions [3][4]. Group 3: Outcomes and Future Plans - The Japanese side indicated that no common ground was found during the negotiations, and Ishiba emphasized that negotiations would not proceed at the expense of national interests [6][7]. - Due to significant differences, Ishiba's planned visit to the U.S. was postponed, although Akizuki is expected to visit the U.S. again soon, with further discussions planned during the G7 summit in Canada [7][8].

美国总统特朗普可能要总和他作对的民主党铁票仓加州施加"财政制裁"，数千亿美元的研究资金、基建 项目和教育投资可能受到冲击。 美东时间6月6日周五，据美媒报道，多名消息人士透露，特朗普政府正准备大规模撤销联邦政府给予加 州的资金支持，可能最早本周五开始行动。各政府机构已被要求开始识别，哪些联邦政府拨款的项目可 以扣留拨发给加州的资金。 Issa表示，他向这些焦虑的大学代表传达的信息很明确：提供具体的拨款项目细节和理由，他就会支 持，"我不会为不削减（开支）而游说"。 在财政施压的同时，加州与特朗普政府的法庭对抗也在升级。据新华社报道，加州是美国首个就关税问 题起诉特朗普政府的州，此前以州政府和州长纽森的名义，于4月16日向加州北区联邦地区法院提起诉 讼，指控联邦政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施所谓"对等关税"政策违法，并称此举损害各州、消 费者和企业的广泛利益。 加州高铁项目成"靶子" 在传出加州面临特朗普政府"财政制裁"的消息前，最近特朗普和加州的关系已经越来越剑拔弩张。 上月，因为一名跨性别运动员参加了一场体育赛事，特朗普就威胁要停止对加州的联邦政府资助。加州 链接洛杉矶与旧金山的高铁项目近来一再成为"靶 ...

特朗普的关税大战，坚持到现在依旧没有见到太多的收效，眼瞅着中国啃不动，特朗普又开始迫其他国 家交作业。 6月3日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文，再次推销自己的对等关税政策，并且做出了解释，把自己伪 装成一个受害者称，其他国家对美国征收高额关税，却不允许美国反击，这么下来，美国的经济就没有 生存的机会了。与此同时，路透社公布了一则致美国谈判伙伴的信函，告诫这些国家目前美国政府已经 没有耐心了，要求各国代表在6月4日本周三之前必须给出最好的谈判报价。 为了配合特朗普的威胁，美国商务部长将第一刀砍向了印度，指出印度的做法激怒了美国，指责印度经 常从俄罗斯出购买军事武器，还指责印度加入了金砖国家，更是跟着金砖国家一起转向摆脱美元霸权 尤其是在美国的对等关税搬出之前，印度就率先赶往美国愿意妥协，虽然印度方面做出了极大的让步， 但是美国还是一步不让，这也导致谈判被搁置了下去，如今美国旧事重提逼迫印度妥协，按照印度以往 的操作手段，在美国的胡萝卜加大棒的威胁下，用不了多久就软了会向美国妥协。继续做他的骑墙派。 美商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克表示，这些问题特朗普已经给摆在了桌前要求印度政府解决，还特地强调 预计在不久的将来，印度 ...

Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The Trump administration's potential increase of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% raises trade policy uncertainty [1][8] - The Oxford Economics economist Edward Allenby indicates that the courts are playing a larger role in determining tariff levels, which may further exacerbate trade policy uncertainty [1] Group 2: US-UK Economic Prosperity Agreement - The US and UK reached a non-legally binding "Economic Prosperity Agreement" (EPD) on May 8, which has raised concerns among international law experts regarding its terminology [3] - The EPD does not eliminate reciprocal tariffs but lowers tariffs on certain industries such as automobiles, steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals [3] Group 3: US-China Trade Negotiations - A joint statement from the US and China on May 12 outlines mutual commitments to cancel and modify tariffs, with the US agreeing to eliminate 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods [4] - China will also suspend or cancel non-tariff retaliatory measures against US goods [4] Group 4: Impact of Legal Challenges - The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump overstepped his authority regarding global tariffs, but the appeals court temporarily stayed this ruling, allowing tariffs to remain in effect [7] - The ongoing legal battles between the Trump administration and US federal courts are influencing the progress of international negotiations [5][7] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - Countries like Japan, India, and South Korea are reassessing their negotiation strategies with the US following the suspension of tariffs on China [6] - India's plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth $1.91 billion indicates a shift in its trade stance under Prime Minister Modi [6]

Group 1 - Oil prices for both WTI and Brent fell by nearly $1, with a daily decline of 1.00%, primarily due to OPEC+ potentially discussing an increase in oil production exceeding 411,000 barrels per day at their upcoming meeting [2] - OPEC+ members have been increasing production faster than previously planned, with Saudi Arabia and Russia aiming to punish overproducing allies and regain market share [2] - The announcement of a potential increase in production has led to a significant drop in oil prices, with analysts suggesting that the actual impact of any announcement may be limited [2][3] Group 2 - The spread between the expiring Brent July futures contract and the more liquid August contract narrowed, with the latter rising by 30 cents to $63.65, as investors anticipated OPEC+'s production increase decision [3] - A report from JPMorgan indicated that the global oil surplus has expanded to 2.2 million barrels per day, necessitating price adjustments to stimulate supply response and restore balance [3] - The reinstatement of tariffs from the Trump era has contributed to a decline in oil prices by over 10% since April 2, with ongoing trade disputes creating market uncertainty [4]

首先是28号，纽约传来重磅消息： 位于纽约的美国国际贸易法院 阻止了特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布的关S政策生效 ，并裁定特朗 普对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税的行为越权。 最近两天，有关懂王对等关税的消息是反转又反转。 美国国际贸易法院认为： 美国总统无权对几乎所有贸易伙伴征收全面关税；美国国会将"不受限制的关税权力"授予 总统违反宪法 如果这个裁定被认可，那这就意味着，懂王的关S政C不合法，关S政C就执行不了。 所以在这则裁决出现之后，懂王马上就提交了上诉状。 果然，在这则消息传出来不到一天，就又出现了新消息—— 美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前做出的禁 止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。 也就说，联邦法院其实还是给了懂王机会， 接下来双方还要提交书面辩论，懂王的关税政策到底 执不执行，还得看暂缓之后的判决。 虽然此刻懂王的对等关税政C看似悬而未决，甚至有被强制裁定不合规的可能性。 但我认为懂王的关税大招，后面还会卷土重来 原因有几点： 第一，懂王可以拖时间 上诉之后，这类案件会上诉到联邦巡回法院，甚至最高法院。 在这 ...

Group 1 - Japan's overseas assets reached a historical high, but it lost its position as the world's largest net creditor nation for the first time in 34 years, with a net external asset balance of 533.05 trillion yen [1] - The Japanese government is stabilizing bond issuance despite rising long-term bond yields, which may increase debt servicing costs and pressure on expenditures [1] - The depreciation of the yen has led to an increase in both foreign assets and liabilities, with asset growth outpacing liabilities due to expanded overseas business investments [1] Group 2 - Japanese companies maintained strong foreign direct investment appetite in 2024, particularly in the US and UK, with significant funds flowing into finance, insurance, and retail sectors [3] - The shift towards direct investment over foreign bonds indicates a longer-term commitment, making it harder to quickly repatriate funds in times of risk [3] - Japan's economic minister expressed intentions to reach consensus with the US during the upcoming G7 summit, proposing conditions such as expanding agricultural imports and simplifying automotive import procedures [3] Group 3 - The Japanese government bond market experienced significant volatility, with a lack of bids leading to increased attention compared to US Treasuries [4] - Concerns over fiscal stability and reduced demand from life insurance companies have contributed to a scarcity of buyers in the Japanese bond market [4] - Investor confidence in traditional safe assets has been shaken, with ongoing market unease due to inflationary pressures and a lack of substantial macroeconomic policy responses [4]