Report 1: Steel Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a trend of mills reducing production and destocking, with iron - water production decreasing and raw material inventory accumulating, which drags down steel prices. The market's concern about export bottlenecks also affects steel prices. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to move within a range. Consider closing the short position on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread in the January contract and re - participating in shorting the rebar to iron ore ratio in the January contract [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10, 20, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts dropped by 48, 46, and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 30, 0, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts dropped by 44, 44, and 37 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while slab price remained unchanged. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 9 yuan/ton. - Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different changes. For example, East China rebar profit increased by 31 yuan/ton, and North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily average iron - water production decreased by 30,000 tons to 2.293 million tons, a decline of 1.3%. - The output of five major steel products decreased by 227,000 tons to 8.062 million tons, a decline of 2.7%. - Rebar output decreased by 105,000 tons to 1.788 million tons, a decline of 5.6%. - Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.087 million tons, a decline of 1.8% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 335,000 tons to 13.321 million tons, a decline of 2.5%. - Rebar inventory decreased by 243,000 tons to 4.795 million tons, a decline of 4.8%. - Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 33,000 tons to 3.971 million tons, a decline of 0.8% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 22,000 tons to 92,000 tons, a decline of 19.3%. - The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 245,000 tons to 8.397 million tons, a decline of 2.8%. - The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 139,000 tons to 2.031 million tons, a decline of 6.4%. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 29,000 tons to 3.12 million tons, a decline of 0.9% [1]. Report 2: Iron Ore Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish. With mills continuing to reduce production, iron - water production declining, and the market weakening, the iron ore valuation is likely to decline. It is recommended to short the Iron Ore 2605 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 730 - 780 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. - The basis of 01 contract for different iron ore powders showed different changes. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 24.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 2.188 million tons to 24.805 million tons, a decline of 8.1%. - The global weekly shipping volume increased by 454,000 tons to 33.686 million tons, a rise of 1.4%. - The national monthly import volume decreased by 5.006 million tons to 111.309 million tons, a decline of 4.3% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 mills decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons, a decline of 1.3%. - The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 85,000 tons to 3.185 million tons, a decline of 2.6%. - The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 49,700 tons to 65.549 million tons, a decline of 0.8%. - The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 1.493 million tons to 71.997 million tons, a decline of 2.0% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 482,000 tons to 153.4898 million tons, a rise of 0.3%. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills increased by 42,300 tons to 89.847 million tons, a rise of 0.5%. - The inventory available days of 64 mills increased by 1 day to 20 days, a rise of 5.3% [3]. Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The coke market is weakening, with supply and demand turning unfavorable. The coke futures are expected to be volatile and bearish, with a recommended operating range of 1450 - 1600 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal for arbitrage [4]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is also facing downward pressure. The coking coal futures are expected to be volatile and bearish, with a recommended operating range of 950 - 1100 yuan/ton. It is also recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal for arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased by 36 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%, and the 05 contract decreased by 44 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.6%. - The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [4]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract of coking coal decreased by 29 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.0%, and the 05 contract decreased by 35 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.3%. - The profit of sample coal mines decreased by 16 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [4]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 tons to 64 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The daily average output of 247 mills remained unchanged at 46.6 tons. - Coking coal production: The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased. The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [4]. Demand - Coke demand: The iron - water production of 247 mills decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons, a decline of 1.3%. - Coking coal demand: The coke production of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showed a slight decline [4]. Inventory - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory increased by 20.8 tons to 903.8 tons, a rise of 2.4%. The inventories of all - sample coking plants, 247 mills, and ports showed different changes. - Coking coal inventory: The inventories of Fenwei coal mines, all - sample coking plants, and ports increased, while the inventory of 247 mills decreased [4]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 2.5 tons to - 1.9 tons, a change of 31.3% [4].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏弱。宏观方面，昨晚美联储议息会议如期降息 25 个基点，并启动短 | | | | | | | | 期美债购买。点阵图显示明年预计会有一次 25 个基点的降息，这意味着明年的降息动 | | | | | | | | 作将较今年明显放缓。鲍威尔表示购债规模未来几个月或维持较高水平，就业市场逐步 | | | | | | | | 降温但慢于预期，目前利率所处位置使美联储能够耐心等待，观察经济接下来将如何演 | | | | | | | | 变。国内方面，中国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，创 2024 年 3 月来最高，PPI 同比降幅略 | | | | | | | 铜 | 有扩大，关注中央经济工作会议。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 700 吨至 164975 | 吨； | | | | | | | COMEX 铜仓单增加 1922 吨至 403852 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 6 ...

RBC Capital adjusts its rating for NYSE:GPK to "Sector Perform" and lowers its price target from $17 to $15.GPK announces cost-cutting initiatives and inventory reduction plans, aiming for $60 million in savings by 2026.The company revises its 2025 EBITDA and EPS outlook downward but maintains net sales expectations.Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) is a key player in the packaging industry, providing paper-based packaging solutions to a variety of sectors. On December 10, 2025, RBC Capital adjus ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the Comex premium persists, and the inventory levels in Shanghai and London remain relatively low. Coupled with the upcoming Fed rate cut, copper prices may continue to fluctuate in a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between RMB 91,500/ton and RMB 92,000/ton, while arbitrage is put on hold and short put options are suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at RMB 92,520/ton and closed at RMB 92,970/ton, up 0.20% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at RMB 92,820/ton and closed at RMB 92,400/ton, down 0.61% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the current 2512 contract was between RMB 20/ton - RMB 240/ton, with an average premium of RMB 130/ton, down RMB 40 from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was between RMB 92,040 - RMB 92,560/ton. The intraday procurement sentiment declined significantly, and the sales sentiment slightly increased, causing the spot premium of Shanghai copper to fall. It is expected that spot transactions will still be at a premium, but as copper prices continue to rise, the number of downstream orders decreases, and the premium is expected to face pressure [2]. Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Fed's December interest rate meeting is approaching. The market generally believes that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again. The market will closely watch Powell's press - conference Q&A session and the last "dot - plot" of the year. Regarding the rate - cut amplitude and the number of future rate cuts, Hassett, a potential candidate for the new Fed chairman, believes that data should be closely monitored, and actions should be taken prudently [3]. Economic Data - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October Producer Price Index (PPI). Due to the government shutdown, the collection of October data is delayed. According to its website, the Bureau plans to announce the October data together in the November 2025 PPI press release on January 14, 2026 [3]. Mining End - On December 5, Askari Metals announced a successful fundraising of $1.15 million and appointed a new director to accelerate its mineral exploration projects in Ethiopia and Namibia. The funds will be mainly used for the exploration of two core projects: the Nejo copper - gold project in Ethiopia and the Uis lithium - tin - tantalum - rubidium project in Namibia. On December 8, customs data showed that in November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.526 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January - November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [4]. Smelting and Imports - On December 8, customs data showed that in November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January - November were 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. LME copper inventory increased last week, reaching a six - month high on December 4 and then slightly declining, with the latest inventory at 162,550 tons. SHFE copper inventory continued to decline last week, falling 9.22% to 88,905 tons, a three - month low. International copper inventory decreased by 573 tons to 11,504 tons. New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high at 436,853 tons [5]. Consumption - In the past week, the State Grid's December tender volume decreased by 20% month - on - month. After copper prices exceeded RMB 91,000/ton, cable enterprises only fulfilled previous long - term orders. The new tender price transmission coefficient was only 0.6, and some enterprises replaced copper cables with aluminum cables, with the estimated substitution ratio rising to 8%. In the home appliance sector, the domestic sales production plan of air conditioners was reduced by 6%, and copper tube procurement was based on "production according to sales". The copper material procurement volume of Midea and Gree in December decreased by 12% month - on - month. The demand for copper strips in refrigerators and microwaves increased slightly due to good export orders. In the automotive sector, the copper consumption of new energy vehicles continued to increase, with a per - vehicle copper consumption of 83 kg and an 11 - month production increase of 35% year - on - year, offsetting the decline of traditional vehicles. However, high - voltage wiring harness enterprises, due to copper accounting for more than 60% of costs, have jointly applied to vehicle manufacturers for a price - linkage mechanism, otherwise they will reduce production to ensure profits. Photovoltaic and data centers have become new highlights. Morgan Stanley predicts that the copper demand of data centers in 2026 will be 475,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30%, but high copper prices have forced some projects to postpone tenders, slowing the short - term demand pace [5][6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons to 164,550 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons to 29,956 tons. On December 8, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 160,300 tons, an increase of 1400 tons compared with the previous week [6].

财达期货｜焦煤焦炭周报 2025-12-08 焦炭首轮提降落地，双焦期价继续探底 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2605 合约周五收于 1140，周跌幅 1.04%，现货市场主流地区报价偏 弱运行。 研究员 上周焦炭 2601 合约周五收于 1585，周涨幅 0.67%，现货市场主流地区提降 50-55 元/吨落地。 姓名：申伟光 从 业 资 格 号 ： 【基本面分析】 F03088716 焦煤： 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 供应端：上周全国 523 家炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率 85.6%，环比下降 0.4%； 精煤日均产量 75.4 万吨，环比减少 1 万吨。全国 314 家独立洗煤厂产能利用率 36.5%，环比上升 0.2%；精煤日均产量 27.1 万吨，环比增加 0.5 万吨。上周，主产 地煤矿复产节奏缓慢，部分地区煤矿因年度生产任务即将完成开始放缓生产节奏进 行控产，炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率已连续两周下降，短期内炼焦煤原料端供应依 然受限。库存方面，焦煤价格持续偏弱，焦炭提降落地，焦企补库积极性下降，煤 矿出货压力增加，炼焦煤矿山原煤及精煤库存大幅累库，独立洗煤厂精煤库存累库 幅度增加。 需求端：焦炭首轮提降落 ...

铅周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 供需面改善 铅价反弹修复 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 李婷 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价企稳反弹。宏观面看，市场对降息 路径偏鸽押注升温，美元弱势运行，铜锡等有色品种 走强，带动铅价跟涨。 要点 基本面看，12 月内外铅精矿加工费持续回落，铅矿供 需紧张的格局短时难扭转。废旧电瓶价格小幅调整， 华北回收商收货遇阻，低价惜售的情况仍存，将限制 价格下调幅度，成本端支撑托底铅价。冶炼端看，部 分炼厂复产，11 月电解铅产量环比小幅回升，12 月江 西、云南及湖南等地炼厂检修增多，且多为交割品牌， 产量有望 ...

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司授权，不得随意转 载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担 任何责任。 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/12/0 1 740 6730 6975 8725 7000 795 796 89 6803 -50 7 ...

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold existing long positions, and consider buying on dips. Keep an eye on macro - level changes and supply - side dynamics [1]. Nickel - Macro conditions are temporarily stable. After the valuation of nickel prices is repaired, the price drivers weaken. With the decline of the nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia and the accelerating inventory accumulation in China, the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upside potential of prices. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [3]. Stainless Steel - Macro conditions are temporarily stable, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory reduction is difficult. In the short term, there is an expectation of price repair due to low valuation and improved market sentiment, but the driving force is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800. Follow up on the implementation of steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron transactions [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the center of the lithium carbonate futures price moved down, with large intraday fluctuations and increased market divergence. The fundamentals remain generally stable with strong supply and demand. The market is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 90,000 - 95,000. Pay attention to the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [7]. Industrial Silicon - The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand situation in December. Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price falls to 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - The current contradiction lies between the strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and the weak spot market with oversupply. Polysilicon futures may continue to fluctuate at a high level, but considering the weak demand, the probability of price decline is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and those with short positions can hold them [11]. Zinc - As TC gradually declines, smelting profits are compressed, and production is limited. The opening of the zinc ingot export space eases the domestic supply pressure, and the demand side shows structural improvement. In the short term, the downside space of zinc prices is limited, and the Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract reference range of 22,500 - 23,500 [13]. Copper - The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory imbalances. In the short term, the price may fluctuate sharply, and in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the price to gradually move up. Pay attention to the structural changes in domestic and overseas inventories and the risk of cornering the market, with the main contract reference range of 90,000 - 91,000 [15]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina remains unchanged, and the price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The key to a market rebound lies in the actual production cuts of enterprises and the inflection point of inventory, with the main contract reference range of 2,550 - 2,800 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of a pull - back after the price rises. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the actual inventory reduction in China, with the main contract reference range of 21,700 - 22,500 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level in the short term. The ADC12 price has limited downside space due to cost support, but high inventory and high prices restrict upward breakthroughs. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.88% to 314,800 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 75% to 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: The import loss improved by 4.56% to - 16,618.50 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.87 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 22.54% to - 550 [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory increased by 2.39% [1]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.29% to 120,050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Production Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel increased by 0.19% to 111,026 yuan/ton [3]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.04% to 27,530 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 20 to - 160 yuan/100 [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% [3]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton [5]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5%, CIF) remained unchanged at 57 US dollars/wet ton [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 to - 90 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.80% to 93,250 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 1,500 to - 80 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: In November, total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36% [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 105 to 155 [9]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons [9]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg [11]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 2.47% to 55,510 [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 7.50% to 2.58 million tons, and monthly production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons [11]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56% to 29.10 million tons [11]. Zinc - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.61% to 23,130 yuan/ton [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 5 to - 40 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons [13]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 5.27% to 14.03 million tons [13]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.37% to 91,282 yuan/ton [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 40 to - 60 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 8.41% to 15.89 million tons [15]. Alumina - **Prices and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.32% to 22,090 yuan/ton [17]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 to - 15 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44% to 743.94 million tons [17]. - **Inventory**: National alumina explicit inventory continued to accumulate [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,700 yuan/ton [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 to - 50 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy weekly social inventory decreased by 0.54% to 5.53 million tons [18].

2025.12.8-12.12 电解铝 期货品种周报 偏强震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 持多待涨。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 波动加大，轻仓持多为宜。 上周策略回顾 短线多单建议离场观望，中期多单继续持有。 本周策略建议 持有足量现货库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 下周美联储12月降息落地后市场或有小幅修正，但在全球供应严重缺乏弹性 +储能金属题材预期+历史低位库存+历史低位的铝铜比价等因素支撑下，铝 价偏强格局预计延续。 2 【总体观点】 | | 2025年12月第1周 | | --- | --- | | | 根据Mysteel调研，几内亚停产矿山的复产流程正在稳步推进，另外新矿山的发运计划进展顺利，后 | | 铝土矿市场 | 续总体供应稳中有增。本周由于氧化铝亏损加重，采购迟疑导致进口矿价格有所回落，不过据钢联 | | | 调研，12月份待售现货全部售出海漂现货市场较为收紧。 | | | 截止12月6日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9650万吨（上周9740万吨），产能利 | | | 用率约86.2%，据Mysteel调研统计，2026年氧化铝新投产能约144 ...