1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable; the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation [3]. - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output [3]. - On the demand side, the profits of stainless - steel plants have improved, and the plants have increased production; the production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, but the downstream procurement demand is still weak, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased; the overseas LME inventory has increased [3]. - Technically, the price has fallen with an increase in positions, indicating a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in a range. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 120 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,170 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 30,724 lots, a decrease of 200 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 11,094 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,841 tons, a decrease of 210 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 194.65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.23 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 billion tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 billion tons, a decrease of 459,000 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [3].

Group 1 - The total market consumption in Beijing from January to July increased by 0.7% year-on-year, driven by active service consumption in transportation, information, and cultural entertainment sectors, which grew by 4.6% [1] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods (referred to as social retail total) reached 767.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, influenced by the weakening advantages in key consumption areas [1] - Retail sales of fashion and entertainment goods such as gold and silver jewelry, cosmetics, and sports and entertainment products increased by 32.7%, 8.2%, and 6.1% respectively [1] Group 2 - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment grew by 6.9% due to the "old-for-new" policy, while basic living goods like grain and oil food and daily necessities saw increases of 12.1% and 3.1% respectively [1] - The retail sales of communication equipment decreased by 24.4%, primarily due to changes in business models and the establishment of cross-regional operating entities [1] - The automotive retail sales fell by 19%, mainly due to insufficient demand for fuel vehicles, which also affected related petroleum and product sales [1] Group 3 - The social retail total reflects the retail situation of consumer goods and does not fully represent the overall consumption demand [2] - The consumption market in Beijing remains on a growth trajectory, with an ongoing trend of consumption structure upgrading [2] - Future policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth are expected to boost confidence on both supply and demand sides, enhancing new consumption vitality [2]

日前召开的中央政治局会议提出，"深入实施提振消费专项行动，在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务消 费新的增长点。"培育服务消费新的增长点，正成为促进消费、扩大内需的重要引擎。 多位受访专家表示，我国服务消费进入快速增长阶段，消费者更愿意在满足自身精神需要的服务消费领 域增加支出，文化、休闲、健康等发展型享受型消费存在巨大空间，成为培育服务消费新的增长点。 形势总体向好 国家统计局数据显示，上半年，服务零售额同比增长5.3%，比同期商品零售额增速高0.2个百分点；全 国居民人均服务性消费支出同比增长4.9%，占居民人均消费支出比重为45.5%。服务消费展现出良好势 头。 国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所市场流通研究室主任、研究员陈丽芬表示，中央和地方将服务消费 作为扩内需的主要抓手，通过丰富消费供给、拓展消费场景、优化消费环境等措施释放消费潜力。同 时，技术变革加速服务消费业态创新，数字消费、绿色消费等新型消费快速增长，为培育新增长点提供 动能。 扩大服务消费，有利于带动生产和投资，打通供需衔接的堵点，形成供需互促、产销并进的良性循环， 为产业结构优化和经济高质量发展提供不竭动力。数据显示，今年上半年，服务业增加值占 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the vibrant consumer activity in Liaoning province, driven by various promotional events and initiatives aimed at boosting consumption and enhancing the overall economic environment [1][2][7] Demand Side: New Consumption Provides Growth Support - The rapid growth of instant retail reflects the diverse consumer demands, with significant increases in spending on education, culture, and entertainment, which rose by 21.3%, and on daily necessities, which increased by 13.4% year-on-year [3] - Spending on durable goods, particularly home appliances like refrigerators and air conditioners, surged by 49.5% [3] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles grew by 22.7%, while energy-efficient appliances saw a remarkable increase of 55.8% [3] Service Consumption Growth - Urban residents in Liaoning spent an average of 7,495 yuan on service consumption, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, outpacing the growth of goods consumption by 5.1 percentage points [4] - Rural residents' service consumption reached 3,146 yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [4] - The tourism market in Liaoning has been thriving, contributing to the overall increase in service consumption [4] Supply Side: New Scenarios Ignite Consumption Dynamics - The opening of the Shenyang Global Harbor and other innovative venues has attracted significant consumer traffic, with nearly 100,000 visitors on the opening day [5][6] - Shenyang has introduced over 950 new commercial brands, focusing on first-store economies to enhance consumer experiences [6] - The province has implemented measures to promote first-store economies, aiming to attract domestic and international brands and create a vibrant consumption ecosystem [6][7]

Core Insights - China's position as the world's second-largest consumer market remains solid, with the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market exceeding 50% and significant growth in various sectors, indicating vast opportunities and potential for investment [1] - The Ministry of Commerce's report on consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan highlights four key themes: expansion, quality improvement, renewal, and openness, with an average annual growth of 5.5% in retail sales of consumer goods over the past four years, expected to surpass 50 trillion yuan this year [1] - The average annual contribution of consumption to economic growth is around 60%, with a notable increase in service consumption, which is projected to be a major driver of consumption upgrade during the 15th Five-Year Plan [2] Group 1 - The retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% over the past four years [1] - The average annual growth rate of residents' service consumption expenditure is 9.6%, with its share in total consumption expenditure rising by 3.5 percentage points to 46.1% [1] - The per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure of residents have increased from 32,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan to 41,000 yuan and 28,000 yuan, respectively, over the past four years [2] Group 2 - The shift from goods consumption to service consumption is expected to be a primary development direction for consumption upgrade during the 15th Five-Year Plan [2] - Improving the consumption environment is a systematic project that involves infrastructure construction, market regulation, consumer rights protection, and credit system development [2] - Enhancing consumer willingness to spend requires multi-faceted collaboration and measures, including market order regulation and the establishment of efficient consumer rights protection channels [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant changes and bright spots in China's consumption market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, characterized by "expansion," "quality improvement," "renewal," and "openness" [1][2][6] - The total retail sales are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, with online retail maintaining its position as the world's largest for 12 consecutive years, and automobile sales ranking first globally [4][6] - The shift in consumer behavior is evident as the public's lifestyle transitions from merely "getting by" to "living well," with service consumption expenditures growing at an annual rate of 9.6%, outpacing goods consumption [8][12] Group 2 - New consumption trends are emerging, with the implementation of retail innovation projects aimed at revitalizing traditional business models, and domestic products gaining popularity both domestically and internationally [12] - Innovative new consumption formats are blending and evolving, with trends such as "guzi economy" and "blind box toys" becoming fashionable [12]

Group 1: Consumption Market Growth - The retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.5% from 2020 to 2024, increasing from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with a forecast to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is over 50% in the first half of this year, with the number of new energy vehicles expected to increase by 5.4 times by 2024 compared to 2020 [2] - Service consumption expenditure is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, outpacing goods consumption [2] Group 2: Wholesale and Retail Industry Development - The added value of the wholesale and retail industry is expected to reach 13.8 trillion yuan in 2024, a 40% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, employing 135 million people [3] - In rural areas, over 15,500 commercial outlets have been upgraded, with more than 95% of administrative villages receiving direct express delivery services [3] - The cold chain logistics sector has seen significant growth, with a total cold storage capacity of 25.3 million cubic meters and 495,000 refrigerated vehicles, representing increases of 42.9% and 80% respectively since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Trade - By mid-2023, actual foreign investment reached $708.73 billion, surpassing the target of $700 billion set for the 14th Five-Year Plan six months ahead of schedule [5] - The number of newly established foreign-funded enterprises reached 229,000, an increase of 25,000 compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [5] - The share of high-tech industries in foreign investment is expected to reach 34.6% in 2024, up 6 percentage points from 2020 [5] Group 4: International Trade and Belt and Road Initiative - The scale of goods trade has maintained its position as the world's largest for eight consecutive years, with a projected growth of 32.4% from 2020 to 2024 [7] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative is expected to grow from $2.7 trillion in 2021 to $3.1 trillion in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 4.7% [8] - The number of foreign trade enterprises is nearing 700,000, with the share of private enterprises in exports increasing from 56% at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 64.8% last year [7] Group 5: New Consumption Trends - There is a notable shift towards quality consumption, with consumers increasingly prioritizing the quality of goods over mere availability [9] - New consumption trends include the integration of traditional industries with innovative formats, such as cultural and creative products gaining popularity both domestically and internationally [9] - The potential for consumption remains strong, with ongoing policy support expected to enhance the supply of quality goods and stimulate consumer demand [9]

随着促消费政策不断加码，多地派发消费券成为提振消费、扩大内需的有效手段之一。今 年"618"活动期间，多地以数字人民币红包的新手段助力消费。专家预计，6月份消费数据将进一步改 善。 6月19日，京东科技发布数据显示，今年京东"618"期间，用户在京东使用数字人民币消费金额达4 亿元，同比增长超18倍。据了解，"618"期间，京东科技携手多家银行首次大规模在23座试点城市发放 数字人民币红包，金额超千万元。 在稳投资促消费相关政策的作用下，市场需求逐步改善。国家统计局数据显示，5月份，社会消费 品零售总额同比下降6.7%，降幅比4月份收窄4.4个百分点。今年前5个月，社会消费品零售总额171689 亿元，同比下降1.5%。 "随着数字人民币、消费券等多项利民惠民措施的实施，各地消费市场逐步复苏，释放了消费潜 能，激发了消费活力，预计6月份消费数据将进一步改善。"宋向清表示，同时，我国消费新业态不断出 现，新型消费需求将随之增长，建议各地充分利用新技术新商业模式，继续加大促消费政策支持力度， 为新型消费市场赋能。 "未来消费市场的增长基础将会更加坚实，后续也将迎来较好修复，预计社会消费品零售总额同比 增速将转正。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies have issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, aiming to stabilize economic growth and consumer expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Key Areas of Focus - The guidelines emphasize the importance of boosting consumption as a key driver for domestic demand and economic growth, especially as external demand weakens [2]. - Six main areas are identified for enhancing consumption: increasing consumer capacity, expanding financial supply for consumption, unlocking consumer potential, improving supply efficiency, optimizing the consumption environment, and providing policy support [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Support for Consumption - The focus is on three main consumption sectors: goods consumption, service consumption, and new consumption types, with specific measures to support each area [2][3]. - For goods consumption, the guidelines propose innovative consumer credit products and support for trade enterprises to enhance domestic sales [2]. - In service consumption, increased financing support is directed towards sectors like retail, hospitality, and elder care, with an emphasis on innovative financing models [3]. Group 3: Expanding Financial Supply - The guidelines encourage the establishment of a multi-layered consumer finance service system, enhancing credit support through various financing channels such as bonds and equity [4]. - Financial institutions are urged to innovate and optimize credit products while increasing support for qualified enterprises in sectors like culture, tourism, and education [4]. Group 4: Enhancing Consumer Capacity - The guidelines highlight the need to improve residents' income levels as a critical factor in stimulating consumption, with measures to support entrepreneurship and wealth management [5][6]. - Infrastructure improvements in logistics and supply chains are also emphasized to enhance the efficiency of consumption supply [6]. Group 5: Optimizing the Consumption Environment - The guidelines propose enhancing consumer payment services, building a robust credit system, and protecting consumer rights to create a more favorable consumption environment [6]. - The People's Bank of China will work with relevant departments to implement these policies and monitor their effectiveness [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand as key focuses for policy development in the second half of the year, indicating a structural opportunity in the consumption market with new consumption becoming a new engine for economic growth [1][2] - The NDRC's policy design focuses on building a long-term mechanism for consumption rather than relying solely on short-term stimulus measures like subsidies and consumption vouchers, highlighting a shift towards a model of "investment first, consumption follows" to create a virtuous cycle of investment, employment, income, and consumption [1][2] - The policies will also aim to expand domestic demand comprehensively, combining the promotion of consumption with the development of new productive forces, particularly in the new consumption sector, which is expected to open new avenues for growth in the consumption market [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to implement strategies to expand domestic demand and solidify the industrial economy, focusing on enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, and accelerating the development and application of technologies such as artificial intelligence terminals and drones [2] - The emphasis on new productive forces and new consumption indicates that a new economic momentum is emerging, which presents significant opportunities for companies that can align with these policies and invest in new consumption sectors [2] - The new consumption market is anticipated to be promising in the second half of the year, suggesting that companies should seize the policy window to position themselves advantageously in the evolving market landscape [3]