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光大期货农产品日报(2025 年6月10日)-20250610
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 05:17
请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 虽然期货盘面价格上涨,但大豆盘面榨利差,油厂进口积极性低。期货的强势与 进口成本走高,远期供应担忧有关。操作上,豆粕 91、15 正套持有,单边多头 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 思路。 | | | | 周一,BMD 棕榈油震荡运行,市场等待 MPOB 报告指引。之前一项调查显示, 尽管出口需求旺盛,但受到产量温和复苏推动,马来西亚 5 月棕榈油库存预计攀 升至 201 万吨,环比上涨 7.74%。其中产量环比增长 3%至 174 万吨。原油价格偏 | | | 油脂 | 强运行,因地缘紧张加剧和美国经济数据好于预期。国内方面,油脂期价偏强运 | 震荡 | | | 行。棕榈油和豆油的涨幅超过菜籽油,蛋白粕走势强于油脂。库存方面,油脂库 | | | | 存稳中增加,大豆压榨量增加是主要原因,其次是油脂需求平淡,国内供应宽松 | | | | 预期持续。操作上,短线参与,豆油和棕榈油买 9 卖 1。 | | | | 周一,鸡蛋期货下跌,主力 2507 合约下跌后低位震荡,尾盘小幅回收,日收跌 | | | | ...
《金融》日报-20250609
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 06:25
发期货 国债期货价差日报 证监许可 【2011】12928 熊睿健 Z0019608 25年6月9日 较前一交易日变化 上市以来百分位数 最新值 种类 日期 品种 IRR (%) TS基差 0.0120 1.8403 -0.068 39.70% 2025-06-06 2025-06-06 TF基差 1.8044 -0.0287 0.0113 50.70% 基差 2025-06-06 T其关 1.6815 0.2590 0.2890 57.80% 2025-06-06 0.5255 -0.0803 39.40% TL基岩 1.3438 2025-06-06 当季-下李 -0.1360 0.0080 6.60% TS跨期价差 2025-06-06 当季-隔李 -0.2580 0.0080 6.90% 2025-06-06 下季-喝家 -0.1220 0.0000 6.10% 2025-06-06 当季-下李 -0.2900 -0.0100 8.90% TF跨期价差 2025-06-06 当季-隔季 -0.3800 -0.0150 10.80% 2025-06-06 -0.0900 -0.0050 14.60% 下 ...
LPG早报-20250609
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 05:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of LPG remain weak, with chemical demand in Shandong providing some support, but supply pressure is high in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish [1] - It is expected that the external sales volume will continue to increase and the inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, and the PDH operating rate is expected to increase next week [1] - As the temperature rises, the combustion demand is expected to decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Price Changes - From May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, the prices of South China LPG decreased by 50 to 4550, East China LPG decreased by 12 to 4449, and Shandong LPG increased by 10 to 4590. The price of ether - after carbon four in Shandong decreased by 60 to 4580. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4449 [1] - The 07 contract basis of PG decreased by 21 to 351, and the 07 - 09 spread increased by 5 to 185 [1] External Market Conditions - FEI and MB are basically the same, CP is declining, and the oil - gas ratio is rising. The internal - external price difference is strengthening, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed, and the freight rate has a slight increase [1] Variety Spread and Profit Conditions - The production margin of PDH has improved but is still poor. The production profit of FEI is higher than that of PP. The profit of alkylated oil has increased, the profit change of gas - fraction etherification is small, and the profit of isomeric etherification has increased. FEI - MOPJ has declined, and the naphtha crack spread has little change [1] Fundamental Conditions - Port inventory has slightly increased, and docks are more active in reducing prices. Factory inventory has increased, and the factory inventory in Shandong has decreased due to chemical demand support. The arrival volume has increased (mainly in South China), and the external sales volume has increased significantly [1]
沪锌期货早报-20250609
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 02:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for Shanghai Zinc ZN2507 is to fluctuate and consolidate. The previous trading day saw a volatile rebound in Shanghai Zinc, with the price closing above the 20 - day moving average, and the support of the moving average strengthened. The short - term indicator KDJ rose and operated in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength rising and the short - position strength falling, and the long - short forces were in a stalemate. [2][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In March 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.0874 million tons, consumption was 1.1335 million tons, with a supply shortage of 46,000 tons. From January to March, production was 3.2831 million tons, consumption was 3.3848 million tons, with a supply shortage of 101,600 tons. In March, global zinc ore production was 1.0078 million tons, and from January to March, it was 2.9611 million tons, which is bullish. [2] - The basis is +355 (spot price is 22,740), which is bullish. [2] - On June 6, LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 136,975 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants remained unchanged at 2,004 tons, which is bearish. [2] - The previous trading day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile rebound, closing above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, which is bullish. [2] - The main position is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish. [2] 3.2 Futures Market Quotes - On June 6, for the zinc futures contracts, different delivery months had different price movements. For example, the contract 2507 opened at 22,380, with a high of 22,450, a low of 22,255, and closed at 22,340, down 40 from the previous day. [3] 3.3 Spot Market Quotes - On June 6, in the domestic main spot market, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17,530 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,740 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet was 3,936 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,303 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23,210 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 21,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; and the price of secondary zinc oxide in Lin remained unchanged at 7,880 yuan/ton. [4] 3.4 Inventory Statistics - From May 12 to June 5, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets changed. Compared with the same period last week, the total inventory decreased by 0.09 million tons, and compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 0.17 million tons. [5] - On June 6, the total SHFE zinc warrants remained unchanged at 2,004 tons, with 1,027 tons in Tianjin, 977 tons in Guangdong, and 0 tons in other regions. [6] - On June 6, LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 136,975 tons, with registered warrants of 75,100 tons, cancelled warrants of 61,875 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 45.17%. [8] 3.5 Price Summaries - On June 6, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was 17,530 yuan/ton, with varying price drops in different regions, such as - 190 yuan/ton in some areas and - 290 yuan/ton in others. [9] - On June 6, the price of 0 zinc ingot from different manufacturers, such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all decreased by 190 yuan/ton. [13] 3.6 Production Statistics - In April 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 454,800 tons, and the actual production was 450,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.20%, and a 0.97% shortfall compared to the plan. The capacity utilization rate was 83.15%, and the planned production for May was 444,100 tons. [15] 3.7 Processing Fee Quotes - On June 6, the average processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 3,300 to 3,700 yuan/metal ton, and the average processing fee for 48% - grade imported zinc concentrate was 40 US dollars/kiloton. [17] 3.8 Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2507 on June 6, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures (47,439 lots, an increase of 8,553 lots), Guotai Junan (45,730 lots, an increase of 1,424 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (29,114 lots, an increase of 4,766 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (11,132 lots, a decrease of 1,065 lots), Guotai Junan (10,354 lots, a decrease of 1,455 lots), and Huatai Futures (5,184 lots, an increase of 1,140 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (12,928 lots, an increase of 660 lots), Guotai Junan (8,432 lots, a decrease of 667 lots), and Yong'an Futures (5,211 lots, a decrease of 708 lots). [18]
广发期货《金融》日报-20250530
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:03
Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the reports Core Views - The reports provide daily updates on various futures markets including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and shipping container futures, presenting detailed data on price differences, ratios, and related indicators Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **IF期现价差**: The latest value is -25.90, up 5.34 from the previous day, with a 1-year historical quantile of 22.50% and an all-time quantile of 16.20% [1] - **IH期现价差**: The latest value is -17.29, up 0.37 from the previous day, with a 1-year historical quantile of 18.00% and an all-time quantile of 10.90% [1] - **IC期现价差**: The latest value is -51.31, up 17.93 from the previous day, with a 1-year historical quantile of 16.80% and an all-time quantile of 19.00% [1] - **IM期现价差**: The latest value is -58.58, up 26.88 from the previous day, with a 1-year historical quantile of 90.00% and an all-time quantile of 19.60% [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **TS基差**: The latest value is -0.0794, up 0.0326 from the previous day, with an IRR of 1.8440 and a percentile of 39.90% since listing [4] - **TF基差**: The latest value is -0.0397, up 0.0202 from the previous day, with an IRR of 1.8378 [4] - **T基差**: The latest value is 0.3511, up 0.3723 from the previous day, with an IRR of 1.4639 and a percentile of 50.80% since listing [4] - **TL基差**: The latest value is 0.6679, up 0.3838 from the previous day, with an IRR of 1.1054 and a percentile of 27.20% since listing [4] Precious Metal Futures - **AU2508合约**: The closing price on May 29 was 764.32 yuan/gram, down 7.96 yuan or -1.03% from May 28 [8] - **AG2508合约**: The closing price on May 29 was 8224 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan or -0.01% from May 28 [8] - **COMEX黄金主力合约**: The closing price on May 29 was 3342.60 dollars/ounce, up 58.20 dollars or 1.77% from May 28 [8] - **COMEX白银主力合约**: The closing price on May 29 was 33.44 dollars, up 0.34 dollars or 1.04% from May 28 [8] Shipping Container Futures - **SCFI综合指数**: On May 23, it was 1586.12 points, up 106.7 points or 7.21% from February 16 [12] - **SCFI (欧洲)**: On May 23, it was 1317 dollars/TEU, up 163.0 dollars or 14.12% from February 16 [12] - **SCFI (美西)**: On May 23, it was 3275 dollars/FEU, up 184.0 dollars or 5.95% from February 16 [12] - **SCFI (美东)**: On May 23, it was 4284 dollars, up 215.0 dollars or 5.28% from February 16 [12]
LPG早报-20250529
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 03:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are expected to be weak overall, with expected supply growth, increased chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - On Wednesday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong increased by 20 to 4490, in East China decreased by 9 to 4517, and in South China decreased by 20 to 4800; ether - post carbon four remained stable at 4740; the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4490 [1] - The CP import cost increased, PP remained flat, and PP production profit decreased. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 06 contract slightly strengthened to 413, the 06 - 07 monthly spread increased by 27 to 95, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread increased by 16 to 159 [1] - The price of civil gas decreased significantly, ether - post carbon four rebounded, and the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480. The PG futures market declined due to weak spot prices. The basis of the 06 contract was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 61 (-15) [1] - In the external market, FEI and MB decreased, CP increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated; the internal - external price difference decreased significantly, and FEI - MOPJ decreased slightly; the freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East decreased [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: The arrival of goods decreased significantly, exports were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; factory inventories were basically flat. The commodity volume increased slightly and is expected to continue to increase, and the expected arrival of goods is also expected to increase [1] - Demand: The PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production margins declined, and the PDH operating rate is expected to continue to rise next week; the alkylation operating rate and commodity volume remained flat, profitability declined significantly to - 40.5 (-308), and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week; the MTBE price generally decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, MTBE production was basically flat, the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined. The expected MTBE supply will fluctuate slightly, and gasoline demand is difficult to increase, so the price may not fluctuate much. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]
芳烃橡胶早报-20250529
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 03:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: Proximal TA start - up increased, polyester start - up decreased from high levels, inventory continued to decline, basis strengthened, and spot processing fees decreased but remained at a relatively high level. PX domestic start - up increased, there were unexpected overseas maintenance, PXN decreased slightly, the structure remained, isomerization and disproportionation benefits weakened slightly, and the US - Asia aromatics spread increased. In the future, polyester output is expected to decline, and the low processing fee state of bottle chips continues. TA has fully implemented maintenance in the first half of the year and still has production plans, so it has high requirements for further inventory reduction. When the downstream exceeds expectations, the inventory reduction link will gradually shift to PX. Pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the far - month TA processing fee [1] - **MEG**: Proximal domestic oil - based start - up decreased slightly, coal - based maintenance and restart coexisted, start - up decreased slightly, port inventory continued to decline due to less arrivals, downstream inventory levels decreased, basis strengthened, and profits continued to increase. Overall, there are unexpected device situations in the near term. With the supply of oil - based products decreasing more than expected and the short - term resilience of the demand side still existing, the reduction of port inventory is expected to be more significant. Pay attention to the staged positive set opportunity [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Proximal Fujian Jinlun had maintenance, start - up decreased to 93.2%, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory increased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn increased, raw material inventory decreased, and inventory increased month - on - month, with benefits still weakening. Generally, the benefits of staple fiber are low, but the start - up has not decreased significantly. With high self - supply and downstream profit under pressure, the fundamentals are not expected to improve significantly. However, the disk processing fee has been compressed to a relatively low level and is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to subsequent production reduction actions [2] - **Natural Rubber**: The national explicit inventory decreased slightly, and the absolute level is not high. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded slightly, and the enthusiasm for tapping rubber at this price is expected to be okay. The strategy is to wait and see [2] - **Styrene and Derivatives**: The prices of related products such as styrene, EPS, and PS changed, and the domestic profits of products such as ABS, EPS, and PS also fluctuated. The price of pure benzene and its spread with naphtha also changed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PTA - **Market Data**: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated, PTA spot prices changed between 4860 - 4910, PTA processing fees ranged from 85.54 - 97.22, and PTA load remained at 77.1. The average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2509(+185) [1] - **Device Situation**: A 100 - million - ton PTA device restarted [1] MEG - **Market Data**: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of MEG in Northeast Asia remained at 780, the port inventory price fluctuated between 521 - 530, and the profit of MEG inner - disk cash flow (ethylene) changed between - 372 - 540. The negotiation price of MEG spot was around 4524 - 4532, and the basis was around 09(+150) [2] - **Device Situation**: A 100 - million - ton MEG device in Sanjiang reduced its load [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Data**: From May 2 to May 28, 2025, the spot price of polyester staple fiber was around 6515, and the market basis was around 07 - 30 [2] - **Device Situation**: Fujian Jinlun had maintenance, and the start - up decreased to 93.2% [2] Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: From May 2 to May 28, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber, such as Shanghai full - latex, Thai cup lump rubber, etc., changed. For example, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14540 to 13800 [2] Styrene and Derivatives - **Market Data**: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the prices of styrene, pure benzene, EPS, etc. changed. For example, the price of styrene in China decreased from 7825 to 7650, and the price of pure benzene decreased from 8850 to 8750. The domestic profits of ABS, EPS, and PS also fluctuated [2]
LPG早报-20250527
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 03:07
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are generally weak, with expected supply growth, increased chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price and Market Conditions - **Day - to - day Changes**: On Monday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong increased by 10 to 4490, in East China increased by 2 to 4495, and remained stable in South China at 4820. For imported gas, prices in East China decreased by 24 to 4929, and in South China decreased by 20 to 4900. The price of ether - post carbon four remained stable at 4740. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4490. The PG futures market was weak, with the basis of the 06 contract slightly weakening to 375, the 06 - 07 spread remaining unchanged at 53, and the 07 - 09 spread basically flat at 128. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1]. - **Recent Trends**: Civil gas prices significantly declined, ether - post carbon four prices rebounded, and the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480. The PG futures market declined due to weak spot prices. The basis of the 06 contract was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 spread was 61 (-15). In the external market, FEI and MB declined, CP increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated. The internal - external price difference significantly decreased, and FEI - MOPJ slightly declined. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East decreased [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Port inventory decreased as arrivals dropped significantly and exports were sluggish. Factory inventory was basically flat. Commodity volume slightly increased and is expected to continue rising. Arrivals are also expected to increase [1]. - **Demand**: - PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production margin declined, and the operating rate is expected to continue rising next week. - The operating rate and commodity volume of alkylation remained flat, profitability significantly declined to - 40.5 (-308), and the operating rate is expected to slightly increase next week. - MTBE prices generally dropped by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, production was basically flat, and the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined. MTBE supply is expected to fluctuate slightly, gasoline demand is unlikely to improve, and prices may not change much. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline [1].
【金十期货图示】金十期货APP独家整理:05月26日国内期货基差数据已更新,点击查看。
news flash· 2025-05-26 07:48
Group 1: Metal Prices - Stainless steel in Wuxi is priced at 13,800 CNY/ton with a futures price of 12,875 CNY, showing a basis of 925 CNY and a production rate of 6.7% [1] - Coking coal in Liulin has a spot price of 1,150 CNY/ton and a futures price of 799.5 CNY, resulting in a basis of 350.5 CNY and a production rate of 30.5% [1] - Rebar in Shanghai is priced at 3,160 CNY/ton with a futures price of 3,004 CNY, indicating a basis of 156 CNY and a production rate of 4.9% [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - Cotton, represented by the CC Index 3128B, has a spot price of 14,606 CNY/ton and a futures price of 13,385 CNY, leading to a basis of -1,221 CNY and a production rate of 8.4% [3] - Live pigs in Henan are priced at 14,330 CNY/ton with a futures price of 13,600 CNY, resulting in a basis of 730 CNY and a production rate of 5.1% [3] - Palm oil is priced at 8,520 CNY/ton with a futures price of 7,954 CNY, showing a basis of 566 CNY and a production rate of 6.6% [3] Group 3: Energy and Chemical Products - Pulp in Shandong has a spot price of 6,250 CNY/ton and a futures price of 5,402 CNY, resulting in a basis of 848 CNY and a production rate of 13.6% [5] - LPG in Guangdong is priced at 4,800 CNY/ton with a futures price of 4,062 CNY, leading to a basis of 738 CNY and a production rate of 15.4% [5] - Ethylene glycol (EG) in East China has a spot price of 4,530 CNY/ton and a futures price of 4,393 CNY, resulting in a basis of 137 CNY and a production rate of 3.0% [6] Group 4: Financial Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index futures show a spot price of 2,699.42 points with a futures price of 2,684.4 points, indicating a basis of -15.02 points and a change of -0.6% [7] - The CSI 300 Index futures have a spot price of 3,860.11 points and a futures price of 3,831.2 points, resulting in a basis of -28.91 points and a change of -0.7% [7] - The CSI 500 Index futures show a basis of -74.86 points with a spot price of 5,669.46 points and a futures price of 5,594.6 points, indicating a change of -1.3% [7]