Core Viewpoint - Agricultural modernization in China relies heavily on domestic seed production to ensure food security and stabilize the food supply [1] Group 1: Technological Advancements in Rice Breeding - Significant breakthroughs have been achieved in rice and wheat seed technology, supported by major projects in core agricultural technologies and biological breeding, placing China at a world-leading level [1][5] - A breeding laboratory in Wuhan is conducting experiments to improve rice varieties for resistance to dwarf disease, with over 5,000 new strains being tested for various traits such as disease resistance and yield potential [3] Group 2: Achievements in Rice and Wheat Varieties - China's rice breeding has not only increased yield but also maintained a world-leading position in developing pest-resistant rice, hybrid rice varieties, and high-quality taste rice [5] - The country has achieved 100% self-sufficiency in rice and wheat varieties, all possessing independent intellectual property rights [5] Group 3: Future Directions in Seed Industry - The coverage of quality seeds for grain crops in China has reached nearly full saturation, with over 95% of the planting area consisting of independently bred varieties [7] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to strengthen leading seed enterprises and enhance the integration of production, education, and research [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights the continuous improvement in the effectiveness of technological innovation, with significant results from innovation-driven development [1] - The integrated circuit industry is expected to see a production increase of 22.2% in 2024, with export value exceeding 1.1 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1] - The annual production of new energy vehicles has surpassed 13 million units, maintaining the world's leading position for ten consecutive years [2] Group 2 - The high-tech manufacturing industry's added value is projected to grow by 8.9% in 2024, accounting for 16.3% of the total industrial output [2] - The carbon emissions trading market in China has seen a cumulative transaction volume of 640 million tons and a total transaction value of 44.05 billion yuan by April 2025 [2] - China has established the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, with non-fossil energy consumption accounting for 19.8% [2] Group 3 - The report indicates that the reform of institutional mechanisms is ongoing, optimizing the innovation ecosystem [3] - By the end of 2024, the loan balance for high-tech enterprises is expected to reach 15.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.8% [3] - China has signed cooperation documents with over 150 countries and more than 30 international organizations under the Belt and Road Initiative [3] Group 4 - China's manufacturing sector has maintained its position as the world's largest for 15 consecutive years [4] - The domestic demand is projected to contribute 69.7% to economic growth in 2024, continuing to be a major driver of economic expansion [4] - China produces over 5 million graduates annually in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, leading globally in talent resources [4]

农林牧渔 分析师：张蔓梓 登记编码：S0730522110001 zhangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 畜禽价格低迷，宠物食品 618 消费表 现亮眼 ——农林牧渔行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 盈利预测和投资评级 | 公司简称 | 24EPS 25EPS | | 25PE | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 3.30 | 3.76 | 10.26 | 增持 | | 普莱柯 | 0.27 | 0.52 | 26.60 | 增持 | | 秋乐种业 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 58.86 | 增持 | | 乖宝宠物 | 1.56 | 2.03 | 48.59 | 增持 | | 中宠股份 | 1.34 | 1.48 | 36.11 | 增持 | | 佩蒂股份 | 0.75 | 0.91 | 15.46 | 增持 | 农林牧渔相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 -15% -10% -4% 1% 6% 12% 17% 22% 2024.06 2024.10 2025.02 2025.06 ...

Core Insights - The integration of digital technology is revitalizing ancient agricultural practices and cultural heritage in Chengdu, Sichuan, showcasing a blend of tradition and modernity [1][4][6] Agriculture and Technology - Agricultural scientists are utilizing AI technology to model and simulate hybrid rice varieties, significantly reducing breeding time compared to traditional methods [3] - Advanced agricultural machinery, such as autonomous tractors and intelligent rice yield measurement platforms, are being employed to explore new paradigms in biological breeding [3] Cultural Heritage and Innovation - The Sichuan Silk Museum displays a large-scale traditional weaving machine, highlighting the historical significance of silk production in the region [3] - The Shujing Cultural Communication Company is innovating traditional embroidery by using digital image processing and AI technology, enhancing design efficiency and ensuring uniqueness in each piece [4][5] Modern Applications of Traditional Culture - The Chengdu Plain is historically significant for silk production, with records indicating that ancient Shu people traded silk fabrics as early as the Spring and Autumn period [3] - Cultural products inspired by ancient artifacts, such as the Sun Bird gold ornament from the Sanxingdui site, are being marketed to younger consumers through live streaming platforms [5][6] Interactive Cultural Experiences - The use of virtual intelligent beings, like the AI guide "Athena," in museums enhances visitor engagement by providing interactive and immersive experiences [5]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Insights - The pig sector is experiencing continuous compression of profit margins, with a focus on the expected differences in the pig market. As of June 21, the average price of pigs in China was 14.37 CNY/kg, down 0.28% from the previous week, with self-breeding profits around 92 CNY/head, significantly narrowed from 160 CNY/head in early May. The average weight of pigs at slaughter was 128.28 kg, showing a slight decrease, while the proportion of pigs over 150 kg was 4.74% [1][15][16]. Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The pig price remains low, and the price of piglets continues to decline. The average price of 7 kg piglets is 443 CNY/head, and 50 kg sows are priced at 1619 CNY/head, with piglet prices down over 200 CNY from their peak. The supply side shows a clear trend of reduced weight, but absolute weights remain historically high [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the low valuation and expected differences in the pig sector, highlighting the profitability of leading companies. The average market value per head for major players like Muyuan Foods and DeKang Agriculture is between 2000-3000 CNY, while others are below 2000 CNY, indicating a relative historical low in valuations [2][16]. Pet Sector - JD.com reported significant growth in the pet sector during the 618 shopping festival, with a 32% year-on-year increase in transaction users and a 39% increase in new pet owners. Domestic brands are gaining a strong foothold, with 7 out of the top 10 pet food brands being Chinese [3][17]. - Pet food exports have shown continuous growth, with 139,100 tons exported from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.89%, amounting to 4.175 billion CNY [3][18]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainties in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a 40.66% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates. The average price of broiler chicks is 2 CNY/bird, down from the previous week [4][19]. - The yellow chicken supply may contract, with demand being a critical variable. The current breeding stock is at a low level, and the demand for yellow chicken is expected to improve in the second half of the year [5][21]. - The egg-laying chicken sector is experiencing high prices due to restricted imports, with the average price of egg-laying chicks at 4.0 CNY/bird, down 2% from the previous week [6][22]. Planting Sector - The focus on food security emphasizes the need for self-sufficiency in grain production, with a significant contribution from yield improvements. The Ministry of Agriculture reports that yield increases contributed over 80% to grain production growth in 2024 [7][23]. - The report highlights the importance of biotechnology in enhancing agricultural competitiveness, with recommendations for leading seed companies and agricultural resource firms [8][24]. Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Haida Group, which is expected to see improved market share and performance. The prices of various fish species are showing mixed trends, with overall fish prices expected to rise due to policy support [9][25]. - The animal health sector is adapting to new demands and competition, with a focus on innovative products and potential growth in the pet health market. Key recommendations include companies like Keqian Biological and Zhongmu Co [10][26].

Core Insights - The Henan provincial government has issued the "Central Plains Agricultural Valley High-Quality Development Three-Year Action Plan (2025-2027)" to promote high-quality development in the seed industry and establish a national and international agricultural technology innovation hub [1][2] Group 1: Development Goals - By 2027, the Central Plains Agricultural Valley aims to achieve significant advancements in modern seed industry development, with enhanced resource aggregation, optimized innovation ecosystems, and expanded industry scale [1] - The plan includes the establishment of over 10 national-level innovation platforms and more than 15 branch offices (R&D centers) outside the province [1] Group 2: Talent and Innovation - The initiative targets the cultivation of over 3 academicians, more than 50 leading talents, and over 200 high-level "dual-skilled" talents in the seed industry, along with training over 1,000 graduate students [1] - Major breakthroughs are expected in breeding parent creation, molecular design breeding, and AI breeding, with the goal of developing over 200 new varieties with independent intellectual property rights and achieving a transformation rate of over 80% [1] Group 3: Industry Scale and Collaboration - The plan aims to attract over 10 seed companies from the international top 30 and domestic top 20, with a total seed industry output value exceeding 15 billion yuan [2] - The Central Plains Agricultural Valley will enhance its international seed industry conference's influence and integrate deeply into the "Belt and Road" initiative, planning to establish over 5 overseas R&D bases (centers) and international breeding innovation platforms [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant advancements in China's oilseed rape industry, particularly through the introduction of the new variety "Zhongyouza 501," which has achieved record-high yields in various conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Crop Performance - "Zhongyouza 501" achieved an average yield of 377.68 kg per mu during a demonstration in Jiangsu, setting a new record for mechanical harvesting of winter oilseed rape in China [1]. - In a semi-arid region of Shaanxi, "Zhongyouza 501" yielded 312.23 kg per mu on moderately saline-alkaline land, doubling the local average yield under extreme drought conditions [2]. Group 2: Technological Integration - The high-yield demonstration in Jiangsu utilized integrated cultivation techniques, including precision sowing, optimized water and fertilizer use, and green pest control, showcasing a replicable model for large-scale oilseed production [1]. - The "double density and double high" technology model, centered around "Zhongyouza 501," has been promoted across over 2 million mu in the Yangtze River basin since the autumn sowing of 2024 [2]. Group 3: Recognition and Future Prospects - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has included "Zhongyouza 501" in the list of national leading agricultural varieties for 2024 and the catalog of excellent crop varieties for promotion in 2025 [2]. - The successful performance of "Zhongyouza 501" in high-yield competitions across Jiangsu, Hubei, and Sichuan demonstrates its potential to enhance national oilseed self-sufficiency and support farmers' income growth [2].

Investment Strategy Overview - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][5][6] Market Performance - From the beginning of 2025 to June 16, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index achieved an absolute return of +12.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.5 percentage points [10][13] - The pet food sector has shown the highest growth, while the aquatic processing sector has also performed well [13][14] Swine Breeding Sector - The swine breeding industry is expected to enter a phase of simultaneous supply and demand growth in the second half of 2025, driven by a sufficient supply of piglets and an increase in domestic slaughtering due to reduced imports from the U.S. [15][30] - The number of breeding sows and total swine stock remains high, with a notable increase in piglet supply observed from January to April 2025 [18][30] - Major companies like Muyuan Foods have reported significant increases in piglet sales, indicating strong market dynamics [17][30] Animal Health Sector - The animal health market is experiencing steady growth, with a market size increase from 472.29 billion yuan in 2016 to 696.51 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.71% [35][36] - The introduction of new products and the expansion of demand are driving the growth of the animal health industry, particularly with the anticipated market expansion following the launch of African swine fever vaccines [41][48] Seed Industry - The seed industry is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on the commercialization of biotechnology breeding, which is expected to enhance market concentration and profitability for related companies [4][16][19] - The regulatory environment is becoming clearer, and companies that have passed initial reviews are now obtaining operational licenses, positioning them to benefit from the industry's growth [4][19] Pet Food Sector - China's pet food market is projected to continue growing, driven by demographic changes and rising living standards, with the market size expected to expand significantly [5][23] - The domestic pet food industry is seeing a shift towards increased online sales and domestic product substitution, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5][23][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the sector, including Muyuan Foods, Pulaike, Qiule Seed Industry, Guai Bao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., as they are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and valuation recovery [5][32]

Market Overview - The global pesticide market achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3% from 2017 to 2023, reaching a size of $74.8 billion in 2023[3] - China's pesticide production is expected to reach 3.6753 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 37.59%[3] - In 2023, China exported $8.1 billion worth of pesticides, significantly higher than the U.S. ($4.7 billion) and India ($4.3 billion), making it the world's largest pesticide exporter[3] Company Performance - YingTai Bio's revenue for Q1 2025 was ¥1.387 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.96%, with a net profit of ¥2.3484 million, marking a return to profitability[3] - The company's gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 13.3% and 0.05%, respectively[3] - In 2024, YingTai Bio's self-produced agricultural product revenue accounted for 83.95% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 10.5%[3] Industry Trends - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange consumer service sector decreased to 53.9X from 53.5X[3] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange consumer service sector fell from ¥126.148 billion to ¥121.319 billion[3] - The median P/E ratio for the broader consumer sector increased by 16.93% to 78.5X[3] Risk Factors - The report highlights risks including macroeconomic fluctuations, market competition, and statistical inaccuracies in data collection[3]

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 15 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 行业库存持续释放，生猪均重降幅扩大 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：行业库存持续释放，出栏均重降幅扩大。（1）本周猪价跌 后小幅反弹。猪价跌破 14 元/公斤后，养殖主体惜售情绪有所增强，叠加 低价二育进场比例增加，带动周后期猪价小幅反弹，6 月 13 日猪价 14.02 元/公斤，周环比-0.05 元/公斤。（2）本周屠企宰量下滑。端午节过后市场 消费明显下滑，屠企订单量处于低位，本周宰量呈下滑趋势。6 月 7-13 日 涌益样本屠企日均宰杀量为 14.31 万头，周环比-1.83%。（3）本周生猪出 栏均重继续下降。随气温升高，大猪需求量减少，养殖端压栏情绪减弱，6 月多个集团场均有不同程度降重策略，行业出栏均重维持下滑趋势。6 月 12 日当周生猪出栏均重 128.82kg，周环比-0.35kg，已连续四周下降，本周 降幅较前期扩大。展望后市，涌益/钢联/卓创监测 6 月样本企业日均出栏预 计环比+4.39%/+2.84%/+3.88%，供应压力预计增大。叠加气温升高抑制养 殖端压栏增重意愿，行业去库存开启，猪 ...