以下文章来源于高牛探 ，作者农村娃高老师 高牛探 . 正能量房产博主。做过中学教师、记者，前世界500强TOP3房企管理，一线营销30亿+考察全国50+城市 和海外多国，看盘2000+ 专一地产16年，首创1分钟评估房子价值；分析楼市政策，房价涨跌规律；提 高卖买房认知。 作者：高牛探 来源：高牛探（ID：gaoniutan） 上周，佛山老城区禅城，一所办了 20 多年的幼儿园，正式宣布关门。 最近，各类与人口相关的新闻，让人惊掉下巴。 全国人口第一大省广东大市，尚且如此，那么人口稀疏的 东北 就更不必说了。 吉林 某县城幼儿园，因为招不到孩子，无奈转行卖包子 。 江苏某三甲医院，堂堂地区医疗界的 "扛把子"，居然宣布关闭产科 。 一线城市那些曾经傲娇的 "高端私立园"，即便降价 50% ，依旧 招不到生源 。 这些如同电影情节般的事件，就真实地发生在我们身边，撕开了中国人口危机的一角。 根据国家统计局数据，全年出生人口 954 万人，人口出生率为 6.77 ‰；死亡人口 1093 万 人，人口死亡率为 7.76 ‰ 。 中国去年 人口自然增长率为 -0.99 ‰，远低于国际公认维持人口世代更替水平的 2.1 ...

这两年，拥有伊利蒙牛的 呼和浩特 遇到一个尴尬的问题： 它给全国的孩子生产了最多的奶制品，但自己的新生儿却不够了。 2023年，呼和浩特的出生率从两年前的6.85‰降到5.58‰，该年死亡人口首次超过出生人口，人口自然增长转负，人口警铃拉响。 2025年3月13日，呼和浩特推出了全国力度最强的育儿补贴政策：一孩一次性发放补贴1万元；二孩补贴5万，每年发放1万直至孩子5周岁；三孩补贴10万， 每年发放1万直至孩子10周岁，此外，三孩还可以拥有择校选择权。 而国内第一个加码生育相关补贴的，是昔日钢铁重镇、五线移民城市 攀枝花 。2021年，攀枝花在全国范围内最先推出真金白银的育儿补贴发放，当地家庭二 孩、三孩分别可以领到1.8万元，每月发放500元直至孩子3周岁。 不过政策反响一般，虽然攀枝花连续四年常住人口增长，但2022年出生人口继续减少，2023年才略有回升，2023年6.81‰相比2021年的6.95‰，只能说拖住 了生育率的恶化。 真正补贴到位的，其实是位于湖北中部的五线城市 天门 。 与全国出生人口走势不同，从2016年起，天门的出生人口就已连续下降了8年，2024年生育相关补贴政策推行后，当年天门出 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses a new generous subsidy policy for childbirth in Hohhot, which includes a one-time payment of 10,000 yuan for the first child, 50,000 yuan for the second child (paid annually until the child is 5 years old), and 100,000 yuan for the third child or more (paid annually until the child is 10 years old) [1] - This policy represents a significant shift in government investment focus from infrastructure to promoting childbirth and consumer spending [1] - The financial burden of this subsidy is manageable for Hohhot, with an estimated cost of less than 2 billion yuan if the birth rate is conservatively calculated at 8 per thousand [1] Group 2 - There is speculation about whether this subsidy policy will be replicated in other cities, particularly in poorer regions like Guangdong's eastern and western areas, where many families might be encouraged to have more children if similar subsidies are introduced [1] - Concerns are raised about the effectiveness of simply providing financial incentives, as it may primarily benefit low-income groups, while the middle class may still hesitate to have more children due to job security and housing concerns [3] - The article highlights the need for comprehensive support beyond financial incentives, such as addressing work-life balance and ensuring job security for families [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the consumption sector, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for the industry based on expected performance relative to benchmarks [19]. Core Insights - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" is a comprehensive initiative aimed at enhancing consumer spending through various measures, including income support and targeted subsidies [2][5]. - The implementation of policies such as "trade-in" incentives is expected to significantly boost retail sales growth, particularly in the second quarter of 2025 [2][4]. - The effectiveness of these policies largely depends on the acceleration of income growth and improvements in future income expectations related to asset prices [2]. Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - The government is focusing on a multi-faceted approach to stimulate consumption, involving various departments and a range of financial incentives [2][5]. - The "trade-in" policy is projected to increase annual retail sales growth by approximately 1 percentage point, with a total subsidy of 1,500 billion yuan expected to generate 1.3 trillion yuan in sales [4]. Policy Measures - Specific measures include lowering housing provident fund loan rates and providing interest subsidies on consumer loans, which are anticipated to improve residents' cash flow [4]. - The plan also emphasizes stabilizing asset prices in the housing and stock markets to enhance future income expectations for residents [4]. Consumer Support - The report highlights the importance of increasing support for childbirth and childcare, with various regions already implementing substantial subsidies [7]. - Employment support measures are also being enhanced, with a budget of 667.4 billion yuan allocated for employment assistance in 2025 [8]. Supply-Side Initiatives - The plan aims to stimulate effective demand through high-quality supply, focusing on optimizing service consumption and developing new consumption scenarios [5]. - There is a push for innovation in consumption, including the integration of artificial intelligence and the expansion of digital and green consumption [5].

重磅利好政策彻底引爆。 受育儿补贴政策刺激，婴童概念股全线爆发。其中，港股锦欣生殖一度暴涨44%，好孩子国际最高涨超30%；A股婴 童概念股掀起涨停潮，孩子王、爱婴室、光明乳业、贝因美等20余股涨停。 消息面上，呼和浩特发布育儿补贴项目实施细则，对符合条件的家庭生育一孩一次性发放育儿补贴1万元；生育二孩 发放育儿补贴5万元；生育三孩及以上发放育儿补贴10万元。深圳市有关部门今日也表示："目前国家卫生健康委正 在会同有关部门研究育儿补贴实施方案，我市将根据国家部署积极稳妥做好落实。" 有分析机构称，呼和浩特发布的政策超出预期，预计短期内会有更多地方政府跟进。育儿补贴是破解低生育率问题 的关键措施之一，有助于提振生育意愿。生育政策补贴后续若落地，有望推动出生人口改善，利好婴配粉行业需 求。 全线大爆发 3月14日，港股婴童概念股全线暴涨，锦欣生殖一度暴涨超44%，好孩子国际最高涨超30%，中国飞鹤涨逾15%，澳 优涨超12%，H&H国际控股涨超4%。 A股市场的相关板块也全线拉升，婴童概念方向爆发，截至收盘，孩子王、爱婴室、光明乳业、熊猫乳品、西部牧 业、燕塘乳业、新乳业、李子园、贝因美、庄园牧场、皇氏集团等20 ...

Group 1: Investment Events - A total of 26 investment events were disclosed on March 13, with 19 domestic and 7 foreign companies involved, raising approximately 5.529 billion yuan [1] - Jiangsu Province's Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection New Industry Fund has been registered, part of a larger initiative with a total scale of 40.8 billion yuan [1] - Hong Kong Biotechnology Fund has been established with a target size of 600 million HKD, focusing on early-stage innovative projects in biotechnology [2][3] Group 2: Major Financing - Zhipu completed a strategic financing round of 500 million yuan, with funds aimed at advancing the GLM model's technological innovation and ecosystem development [4] - Ouyue Semiconductor announced a financing round of several hundred million yuan, focusing on product innovation and commercialization in the automotive industry [5] - Chixin Semiconductor raised nearly 200 million yuan in its A round financing, indicating strong market confidence in the UWB chip sector [6] Group 3: IPO Developments - Guangdong Huahui Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. has had its IPO application accepted by the Beijing Stock Exchange, positioning itself as a rare asset in the lithium battery equipment sector [8] Group 4: Policy Focus - Shenzhen has released a plan to support the replacement of consumer goods, aiming to promote the replacement of approximately 160,000 vehicles and 3.2 million home appliances by the end of 2025 [9] - Hohhot has introduced a childbirth subsidy policy, offering 10,000 yuan for the first child, 50,000 yuan for the second child, and 100,000 yuan for the third child, with annual disbursements until the child reaches certain ages [10]