Core Viewpoint - The company Feihe has reported a decline in performance, with projected revenue for the first half of 2025 between approximately 9.1 billion to 9.3 billion yuan, down from 10.1 billion yuan in the same period last year. Net profit is expected to be between approximately 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, compared to about 1.9 billion yuan in the previous year [2] Group 1: Performance and Financials - Feihe's revenue and net profit are expected to decline significantly in 2025, attributed to factors such as providing fertility subsidies, reducing channel inventory for infant formula, decreased government subsidies, and impairment provisions for whole milk powder products [2] - The company announced a special subsidy of 1.2 billion yuan starting from April 2025, aimed at eligible families, which has impacted revenue and led to product flows into second-hand markets [3] - Despite the decline, Feihe remains optimistic about achieving low single-digit growth for the full year and plans to utilize no less than 1 billion yuan for share buybacks while maintaining a stable dividend policy, expecting to distribute no less than 2 billion yuan in dividends for 2025 [7] Group 2: Market Competition - The infant formula market is experiencing increased competition, with Nielsen IQ data indicating a 2.3% year-on-year growth in the infant formula sector from January to April 2025, while offline sales have decreased by 1.4% [4] - Foreign brands have gained an advantage in the ultra-premium segment, with brands like Aptamil, Friso, and Wyeth experiencing growth in 2024 [5] - Despite the competitive landscape, Feihe continues to hold the top market share in the infant formula sector [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market sentiment appears to be challenging, with Feihe's stock price dropping by 17.02% to 4.73 HKD per share on July 7 [9] - In comparison, the Shanghai Consumer 80 Index fell by 0.61% on the same day, indicating a broader market trend [10]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of China Feihe (6186.HK) has significantly dropped due to the expected decline in performance for the first half of 2025, with projected revenues of approximately 9.1 billion to 9.3 billion yuan, down from about 10.1 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - China Feihe anticipates revenues of approximately 91 billion to 93 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a decrease from 101 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [2][6]. - The company expects a net profit of around 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, down from approximately 1.9 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. - In 2024, China Feihe reported total revenue of 20.749 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.570 billion yuan [7]. Market Context - The infant formula industry in China has faced challenges due to declining birth rates, with a 5% and 10% decrease in market size in 2022 and 2023, respectively [7]. - The market is expected to stabilize in 2025, driven by a rebound in birth rates and government incentives for childbirth [7]. Strategic Initiatives - China Feihe plans to utilize at least 1 billion yuan for share buybacks, reflecting confidence in its long-term business prospects [9][10]. - The company will distribute dividends of no less than 2 billion yuan in 2025, despite short-term financial challenges [10][11]. - The company has increased its focus on high-end products and aims to enhance its market position through differentiated offerings [7][10]. Investor Relations - China Feihe has a strong commitment to returning value to investors, with a dividend payout of 0.3264 yuan per share in 2024, totaling 2.96 billion yuan, and a dividend rate of approximately 76% [11]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable sales expense ratio while increasing marketing efforts for its functional nutrition business [11].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a "single tax" in Japan has sparked significant public backlash, as it is perceived as an unfair burden on single individuals to support families with children, amidst a declining birth rate crisis [1][3][7]. Group 1: Tax Implementation - Starting from April 2026, the Japanese government plans to impose an annual tax ranging from 2,400 yen to 12,000 yen (approximately 120 to 600 yuan) to fund subsidies for families with children, labeled as "child and parenting support funds" [3][10]. - The tax will increase gradually, reaching 19,800 yen by 2028 for higher income brackets [10][11]. Group 2: Public Reaction - There is widespread discontent among the public, particularly among younger individuals, with over 60% opposing the tax, viewing it as a financial strain amid rising living costs [12][13]. - Many individuals express frustration over being forced to financially support others' choices regarding family planning, especially when they are already facing economic difficulties [12][17]. Group 3: Demographic Context - Japan is experiencing a severe demographic crisis, with a continuous decline in total population and a record low birth rate of under 700,000 last year [7][9]. - The government predicts a potential population decrease of 33 million by 2070 if current trends continue, leading to discussions about the future viability of the nation [9]. Group 4: Existing Support Measures - Japan has implemented various support measures for families, including one-time childbirth subsidies of 500,000 yen, monthly allowances for children, and free education from preschool to high school [14]. - Despite these efforts, the birth rate remains low, indicating that financial incentives alone may not be sufficient to encourage higher birth rates [14][15]. Group 5: Societal Implications - The ongoing economic challenges, such as high living costs and job instability, contribute to the reluctance of young people to marry and have children, with many still living with their parents [15][19]. - The discussion around the "single tax" reflects broader societal issues, including the need for stable employment, affordable housing, and gender equality in the workplace to create a conducive environment for family growth [19][20].

Group 1 - The decline in birth rates has become a significant social issue, particularly in rural areas where the effects of an aging population are becoming evident [1][5][13] - Various regions are implementing incentives to encourage childbirth, including cash rewards of 50,000 yuan for a second child and 100,000 yuan for a third child [1][19][20] - The aging population in China is already substantial, with over 300 million elderly individuals, prompting local governments to introduce financial incentives to boost birth rates [13][15] Group 2 - The experience of Japan serves as a cautionary tale, illustrating that a declining birth rate can lead to increased pressure on the working population, as older individuals may need to fill jobs typically held by younger workers [7][9][11] - Despite the financial incentives, the high cost of raising children remains a significant barrier, with estimates suggesting that raising a child to university can cost hundreds of thousands of yuan [24][26] - The introduction of "mother-friendly" job positions aims to alleviate concerns for women about job stability after childbirth, potentially encouraging higher birth rates [21][22]

证券研究报告：医药生物|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-16 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 7895.79 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 8490.25 | | 52 周最低 | | 6070.89 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -14% -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡明子 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110001 Email:caimingzi@cnpsec.com 分析师:龙永茂 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110002 Email:longyongmao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 推荐标的：英科医疗、迈普医学、怡和嘉业、微电生理、 拱东医疗、派林生物、益丰药房、大参林、康臣药业、佐力药 业、桂林三金、天士力、新里程、美年健康、国际医学。 《政策支持上市公司通过并购重组高 质量发展，行业整合持 ...

Core Insights - In 2024, 20 out of 31 provinces in China experienced a decline in population, with only 8 provinces showing positive growth [1][2] - The Yangtze River Delta region has a total population of 238 million, with Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui showing varied population changes [1][2] Population Changes - Shanghai's population decreased by 71,900 to 24.8026 million, marking a natural growth rate decline of 1.53% [2][3] - Jiangsu's population remained stable at 85.26 million, experiencing its first zero growth since 1990 [3] - Zhejiang's population increased by 430,000 to 66.7 million, with a natural growth rate decline of 0.36% [2][3] - Anhui's population grew by 20,000 to 61.23 million, with a natural growth rate decline of 2.24% [2][3] Regional Highlights - In the Yangtze River Delta, Zhejiang's population growth is the second highest in the country, driven by economic vitality and policy support [2][3] - Anhui's capital, Hefei, has surpassed 10 million residents, contributing to the total of 18 cities in China with populations over 10 million [3] Policy Responses - Jiangsu has introduced subsidies for maternity leave, expanding support to first-time mothers [4] - Various cities in Zhejiang and Anhui have implemented one-time and regular birth subsidies to encourage higher birth rates [5] Migration Dynamics - Shanghai's registered population is 14.9677 million, with a significant drop in the number of incoming migrants, which decreased by 237,900 [5][6] - The importance of attracting external population is emphasized, with recommendations for lowering residency requirements and improving local services for migrants [6]

Group 1 - China is committed to high-level opening-up and welcomes US financial institutions to participate in the development of its capital markets [1] - The Ministry of Commerce recently discussed the potential relaxation of export controls on rare earths to European chip companies during a meeting with semiconductor enterprises [4] - The Shenzhen government has released draft regulations for the management of affordable housing, emphasizing strict management to prevent conversion to commercial housing [8] Group 2 - Tianyuan Pet announced plans to acquire 89.71% of Taotong Technology for 688 million yuan [9] - China Energy Construction's subsidiary won a coal power project with a contract value of approximately 14.586 billion yuan [10] - Nvidia reported first-quarter revenue of $44.1 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $18.78 billion, up 26% year-over-year [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the continuous catalysis in the innovative drug sector of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, with a focus on areas such as anti-tumor, autoimmune, GLP-1, stem cells, and gene therapy [1] - The CXO sector is expected to see a valuation recovery due to supportive policies for innovative drug development in China and a reduction in overseas geopolitical risks [1] - In the blood products sector, there is an increasing demand for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) in critical care, driven by an expanding market and a price increase in high-end chromatography IVIG, with a short-term shortage expected to persist [1] Group 2 - The vaccine sector is under pressure, but some key companies are showing marginal performance improvements, with attention on new areas such as shingles and the penetration potential of domestic high-cost performance HPV manufacturers [1] - In traditional Chinese medicine, it is recommended to focus on companies related to fertility subsidies [1] - The medical device sector is experiencing accelerated replacement due to centralized procurement, with a focus on the replacement potential in electrophysiology and neurointervention fields [1] Group 3 - The low-value consumables industry is gradually completing inventory destocking, with attention on cyclical upward opportunities and the potential of the GLP-1 industry chain [1] - The Vaccine ETF (159643) tracks the Vaccine Biotechnology Index (980015), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting listed companies involved in vaccine research, production, and sales from the A-share market [1] - The Vaccine Biotechnology Index aims to reflect the overall performance of listed companies related to vaccines and biotechnology [1]

Group 1 - Yili has launched three new infant formula products under the Jinlingguan brand in Hong Kong, marking its entry into the Hong Kong market and accelerating its global expansion strategy [1] - The infant formula and dairy products business, represented by Jinlingguan, has entered a steady expansion phase, achieving a revenue of 29.675 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.53%, with a gross margin of 41%, which is approximately 10 percentage points higher than the liquid milk business [1] - Jinlingguan's revenue has seen double-digit growth, with its retail market share increasing by two percentage points compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - The declining birth rate in China presents challenges for the infant formula market, with expectations of further declines in the birth rate by 2025 [2] - Despite the challenges, there are structural opportunities in the market, and the infant formula industry is expected to enter a period of integration and structural adjustment by 2025 [2] - Yili will continue to focus on high-end positioning and innovation in its product offerings, responding to the increasing consumer demand for high-quality and scientifically formulated products [2] Group 3 - Yili has allocated a total subsidy of 1.6 billion yuan to provide at least 1,600 yuan in subsidies to eligible pregnant families across the country, including eight free nutritional products during pregnancy [3] - The subsidy program aims to support maternal and infant health, reflecting the company's commitment to social value and long-term brand investment [3] - The initiative is seen as a strategic investment in the future of maternal and infant health in China, benefiting many pregnant families in the short term while fostering a healthier environment for scientific parenting in the long term [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial struggles of Yili, which reported a revenue decline of 8.2% and a net profit drop of 18.9% in 2024, marking its first "double decline" since its listing, attributed to the high-cost acquisition of Ausnutria [1][2][4] - Yili's net profit, excluding goodwill impairment, would have shown a 12.2% increase, indicating that the financial results are a strategic cleanup following a failed investment [1][2] - Ausnutria's performance in 2024 showed a slight revenue increase of 0.28% to 7.402 billion yuan and a significant net profit growth of 35.32% to 236 million yuan, contrasting with Yili's decline [1][4] Group 2 - The acquisition of Ausnutria by Yili was marked by a high premium, with the acquisition cost amounting to 8.734 billion yuan, leading to a significant increase in goodwill from 3 million to 4.954 billion yuan [2][4] - Since Yili took over Ausnutria, there have been calls from shareholders for privatization due to perceived overvaluation, but Yili has maintained its commitment to the brand [5][6] - The management of Ausnutria has been fully integrated with Yili's team, aiming for better synergy across supply chains, channels, and branding [5][6] Group 3 - Despite Yili's overall revenue decline, its milk powder business has shown resilience, with a 7.5% revenue increase, contributing significantly to the overall performance [7] - Ausnutria's sheep milk powder business has gained traction, with a 68.2% increase in overseas revenue, although this still represents a small portion of total revenue [8][11] - The sheep milk powder market in China is growing rapidly, with a projected market size of 35 billion yuan by 2028, but Ausnutria's growth in this segment has not been as strong as expected [8][9] Group 4 - Ausnutria's reliance on sheep milk powder has led to a decline in its cow milk powder revenue, which fell by 17.8% in 2024, indicating a shift in its product focus [11][12] - The international market for dairy products presents significant challenges, with strong competition from established global players, making it difficult for Ausnutria to expand its market share [12][13] - Yili's marketing strategies have been criticized for lagging behind competitors, impacting its ability to capitalize on emerging market opportunities [13][14]