电商的增量和乱价让白酒企业左右为难。 和电商渠道合作，正成为白酒企业无法回避的话题。在2025年秋季糖酒会期间，白酒在电商渠道的机会与冲突也是企业和专家讨论的热点之一。传统渠道销 售下滑难止，酒企希望在爆火的电商渠道中寻找新增量，但又担心日渐强势的电商低价竞争冲击市场。而今年"双十一"大促刚开场，部分电商平台茅台、五 粮液等名酒补贴后促销价格又创新低。 酒企重新审视电商渠道 随着酒业深度调整的持续，今年秋糖讨论最多的莫过于新形势下行业的新增长点在哪里，而过去被视为"洪水猛兽"的电商则成为行业关注的重点。 这一态度变化的背后，是今年酒水消费的进一步下滑。上半年，国内主要酒业上市公司半年报都出现了不同程度地降速甚至下滑，而在刚刚过去的"双节"旺 季，市场情况也并不乐观。 酒精度:53%vol C冷含量:500mL 酒精度: 53%vol C冷含量: 500mL 酒精度:53%vol C冷含量: 500m (R (B) R 酱管型白酒 蛋蛋型白酒 酱管型白酒 四川麻海股份有限公司出品 四川鹿海股份有限公司出品 四川麻海股份有限公司出品 在业内看来，本轮白酒行业的深度调整与当前经济环境、人口老龄化等因素相关，但电商打 ...

编 | 南风 "不再像往年那样为中秋国庆备满库存，而是谨慎地等待着市场信号的明确。"这是2025年四川高端白酒市场的真实写照…… "今年6-7月几乎是2013年以来动销最差的2个月，"一位四川高端酒经销商坦言。尽管8月开始宴席订单有所回暖，郊县需求相对旺盛，但9月宴席用酒量仍 同比下降约20%，预计中秋国庆销售同比下滑20-30%。 该经销商预测，与2025年上半年白酒行业总产量同比下降5.8%，利润总额同比下降10.93%的趋势一脉相承…… 1 白酒行业深度调整"量价齐跌"成新常态 2025年上半年，白酒行业正式告别"量减价增"的增长逻辑，转向"量价齐跌"的新阶段。今年上半年，行业总产量同比下降5.8%，利润总额876.87亿元，同 比下降10.93%。 "白酒消费高地"失守？四川市场深陷行业调整漩涡。 文 | 卖酒狼团队 "库存压力仍是白酒行业最严峻的挑战！"一位业内资深人士直言，库存危机的根源在于行业长期粗放发展积累的结构性矛盾。 首先，产能扩张与市场需求脱节是核心诱因——企业为争夺市场份额盲目扩产，而实际消费量受宏观经济放缓、年轻群体偏好转变等因素持续萎缩。 其次，过度依赖压货式增长模式加剧了危机，部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has experienced a decline of over 4%, currently trading at 8.83 HKD with a transaction volume of 120 million HKD, amid rumors of Guizhou Moutai potentially lowering its annual performance targets in the context of a deep adjustment in the liquor industry [1] Company Summary - Zhenjiu Lidu's latest flagship product "Dazhen" has been officially launched, with a reported revenue of 370 million CNY and over 2,800 national alliance merchants signed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, with rumors suggesting that Kweichow Moutai may lower its annual performance targets, although the company has denied this claim [1] Company Summary - Zhenjiu Lidu's stock fell over 4% in the afternoon, currently trading at HKD 8.83 with a transaction volume of HKD 120 million [1] - The company recently launched its new flagship product "Dazhen," which has already generated a revenue of CNY 370 million and signed over 2,800 alliance merchants nationwide [1] - Pacific Securities reported that the overall terminal sales in the industry have shown some recovery since August, but sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are still expected to be under pressure compared to last year [1] Industry Summary - The liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment, with Kweichow Moutai's performance targets being a focal point of concern among investors [1] - The market has seen a recovery in terminal sales since August, but challenges remain for the upcoming holiday sales [1] - The introduction of high-quality products like "Dazhen" is seen as a potential driver for growth in the liquor sector, particularly for Zhenjiu Lidu [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that despite rumors of a performance target adjustment, Guizhou Moutai has not changed its annual performance goals and has completed 47.99% of its revenue target for 2025 in the first half of the year [2][6] - Guizhou Moutai's revenue growth target for 2025 is set at approximately 9%, translating to about 189.82 billion yuan [3][6] - The company reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, with net profit reaching 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [5][6] Group 2 - The company has faced challenges due to industry adjustments and changing consumer trends, but it has maintained market stability through optimized strategies and product placements [3][4] - Recent data shows that the wholesale price of 53-degree 500ml Flying Moutai has dropped to 1,770 yuan, a decline of over 20% compared to its initial price when the platform launched [3][5] - As of September 22, Guizhou Moutai's stock price was 1,453.35 yuan per share, reflecting a 3.37% decline year-to-date [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a recovery in sales after a prolonged downturn, driven by seasonal demand and price adjustments, although the overall market remains in a deep adjustment phase [2][9][11]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the second quarter, the majority of liquor companies reported a decline in both revenue and net profit, with only a few exceptions like Guizhou Moutai and Tianyoude Liquor showing growth [4][6][11]. - The overall performance of the liquor industry reflects a return to normalcy after a period of rapid growth, with the second quarter traditionally being a slow season for sales [7][11]. - The industry is currently facing challenges such as high inventory levels and reduced demand from business receptions, which have significantly impacted sales figures [8][10]. Group 2: Sales Recovery - August saw a notable increase in sales and shipment volumes compared to July, attributed to the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, as well as further price reductions [2][9]. - The recovery in sales is primarily driven by increased consumption during traditional events like graduation and wedding banquets, alongside a rise in demand for mid-range and mass-market products [9][10]. - Despite the sales rebound, the industry is still expected to face challenges in matching last year's performance levels, with many analysts predicting continued declines in overall market demand [11][12]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The liquor sector has seen a rebound in stock prices over the past month, with the industry index rising by 12.32% from early August to mid-September [12]. - Analysts suggest that while there is optimism regarding a potential turning point for premium liquor prices, the overall industry sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing adjustments and competitive pressures [13]. - The current market environment is characterized by a focus on inventory clearance and price adjustments, with many companies adopting strategies to manage their sales and distribution channels effectively [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is experiencing signs of recovery after a prolonged period of adjustment, with sales and distribution showing improvement in August due to seasonal demand and price adjustments [1][8]. Industry Performance - After nearly three months of downward adjustment, the baijiu circulation and sales have shown signs of recovery, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase in food and beverage prices in August [1]. - The sales volume and revenue in August significantly increased compared to July, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai reporting a notable rebound in sales [1][8]. - The second quarter of the year saw a deep adjustment phase for the baijiu industry, with 20 listed companies reporting that 13 experienced declines in both revenue and net profit [3][4]. Company Performance - In the second quarter, only Kweichow Moutai and Tianyoude Liquor reported year-on-year revenue growth, while most other companies, including Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu, faced significant declines [4][5]. - The second quarter is typically a slow season for baijiu companies, but this year, the "off-season effect" returned due to high channel inventory and ineffective sales strategies [6]. - The impact of policy changes, such as the "ban on alcohol" for official receptions, has also contributed to the decline in performance for many companies [6][7]. Market Trends - The baijiu market is currently in a "clearing inventory" phase, with ongoing price reductions leading to increased sales volume, particularly in the mid-range and popular price segments [9]. - Despite the recent sales rebound, the overall market is still expected to decline compared to last year, with analysts predicting a double-digit decrease during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [9][10]. - The baijiu sector has seen a significant rebound in stock prices over the past month, with the index rising by 12.32% from August 1 to September 16, although it remains below last year's peak [10][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upcoming holiday season may provide a window for price stabilization and potential recovery for premium liquor brands, but the overall industry may still face challenges [11][12]. - The current market sentiment is driven by a combination of low valuations and speculative investments, rather than a genuine recovery in industry health [12].

Core Viewpoint - Shunxin Agriculture reported a challenging first half of the year, with significant declines in revenue and net profit due to pressures in both its pork and liquor businesses [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 4.593 billion yuan and a net profit of 173 million yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 19.24% and 59.09%, respectively [1]. - The liquor business generated approximately 3.606 billion yuan in revenue, down 23.25% from the same period last year, with its revenue share decreasing from 82.61% to 78.51% [4]. Business Segments - The pork business reported revenue of 889 million yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, but accounted for less than 20% of total revenue. The slaughtering segment contributed 782 million yuan, while breeding sales were 107 million yuan [3]. - The gross margin for the pork business fell to 0.01%, a decrease of 2.52 percentage points from the previous year, indicating minimal profit potential [3]. Liquor Business Challenges - The liquor segment faced significant challenges, with sales volumes declining due to a deep adjustment in the industry. The company’s high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor revenues all fell compared to the previous year [6][7]. - High-end liquor revenue was approximately 529 million yuan, down 12.32%, while mid-range liquor revenue decreased by 21.87% to 498 million yuan, and low-end liquor revenue dropped by 25.41% to 2.578 billion yuan [7][10]. Market Competition - The low-end liquor segment, which accounts for over 70% of Shunxin's liquor revenue, has limited profit margins, with a gross margin of 36.91% compared to 42.12% for mid-range and 69.32% for high-end products [10]. - Increased competition from leading liquor companies launching light bottle products has further eroded Shunxin's market share, with brands like Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao actively targeting younger consumers [10][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on product innovation, marketing innovation, and brand expansion, while also enhancing its digital marketing efforts through partnerships with platforms like Alibaba [6]. - Despite these efforts, the effectiveness has not met expectations, as all categories of liquor revenue have fallen short of last year's figures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid introduction of new products by liquor companies is a proactive strategy to combat shrinking consumption and intense competition in the existing market [1][10]. Group 1: Product Launches by Guizhou Moutai - Guizhou Moutai has launched over 10 new products in the past two months, marking an unprecedented frequency in the industry [2][4]. - Notable product launches include the Taiyuan Red health wine on August 4, a limited edition commemorative wine on August 8, and the Moutai 1935 premium version on August 25 [4]. - The company has also introduced a series of cultural products and new packaging formats, indicating a strong push for innovation [4][10]. Group 2: Other Brands Following Suit - Other liquor brands have also begun to introduce new products, albeit in smaller quantities, reflecting a rare trend of concentrated innovation across the industry [5][10]. - Brands like Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu have launched new products, including a craft beer and upgraded versions of existing offerings [7][10]. - The trend includes a focus on low-alcohol products and light bottle designs, catering to younger consumers and the mass market [11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The recent surge in product launches is a response to significant market pressures, including regulatory changes and declining consumer interest [10][11]. - Companies are adopting strategies to stimulate consumer demand through product innovation and enhanced online sales channels [10][11]. - The emphasis on light bottle products and low-alcohol options indicates a shift towards appealing to younger demographics and expanding market reach [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with only 6 out of 22 listed companies reporting positive revenue and profit growth in the first half of the year, indicating a deep adjustment phase for the industry [1] Industry Summary - The liquor industry is undergoing a "triple period overlap" adjustment, facing challenges that have led to a decline in growth rates [1] - Key strategies being adopted by liquor companies include targeting younger consumers and promoting lower-alcohol products to navigate current market difficulties [1] - The three main focal points for the liquor industry in the first half of the year are instant retail, banquet markets, and lower alcohol content [1] Company Summary - Among the 22 listed liquor companies, only 6 maintained positive revenue and profit growth: Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Laobaigan, and Jinhui Liquor [1] - The companies that reported growth include both leading brands and regional champions, suggesting that despite increasing industry concentration, there are still structural opportunities available [1]