这对白酒行业，将是又一次沉重的打击。说白了，能喝茅台、五粮液的群体非富即贵，此番，机关的 "禁酒令" 应该是把主要消费群体 "砍了" 一半。 其对于白酒上市公司当然也是一次冲击，13年前 "八项规定" 出台后，白酒行业受到重挫，曾进入深度调整期。 5月19日开盘后白酒股股价集体走低，但较几年前 "禁酒令" 时波动有限。业内看来，中国白酒消费中政务消费的比例已经不高了。 5月18日，新修订后的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》（下称《条例》）正式印发，其中明确工作餐不得提供高档菜肴，不得提供香烟，不上酒。 在股东大会上，投资者最为关注的问题集中在茅台的业绩表现、产品价格策略、市场前景以及未来发展战略等方面。对于当前白酒行业的深度调整，茅台管 理层表示，公司将积极应对市场变化，通过优化产品结构、拓展销售渠道、加强品牌建设等措施，保持公司的稳健发展。 关于备受关注的飞天茅台价格问题，虽然目前市场批价有所波动，但茅台方面强调将维护价格稳定，保障消费者和经销商的合理利益。同时，公司也在探索 新的增长路径，如加大系列酒的推广力度，拓展国际市场，以及推进多元化发展等。 值得注意的是，一些长期关注茅台的投资者在接受媒体采访时表 ...

直到2012年，"中央八项规定"出台，限制三公消费，白酒行业遭受重创，以茅台、五粮液为代表的高端 白酒价格大幅下跌，行业进入深度调整期。 此后的2016年、2017年、2018年、2020年，国家的相关部门和多个省份都有颁布过相应的"禁酒令"。可 以说，"禁酒令"一直都在，且越来越严。 文丨酒食汇团队 5月18日，新修订后的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》（下称《条例》）正式印发，其中明确工作 餐不得提供高档菜肴，不得提供香烟，不上酒。受此影响，白酒股应声下跌，尤其是在行业深度调整的 背景下，这一政策的出台，无疑给白酒行业带来了新的变数与挑战。 影响不大，白酒政务消费占比已不足5% 回首往昔，白酒行业与政务消费紧密相连。 在过往的公务接待场景中，白酒作为餐桌上的常客，承载着社交、礼仪等诸多功能。从商务宴请的推杯 换盏，到政务接待的觥筹交错，白酒扮演着重要角色。 然而，白酒企业也不能对新规的影响掉以轻心。政务消费具有较强的消费引领作用，短期内必然会对消 费者心理预期产生一定冲击。面对这一政策调整，白酒企业需积极求变，探寻应对之策。 产品结构调整是关键一步。白酒企业应加大对大众消费市场的产品研发与推广力度，满足普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the Chinese liquor market, particularly in the baijiu sector, are attributed to new regulations aimed at reducing waste and extravagance in government functions, which have led to a decline in consumption and stock prices of major baijiu companies [3][10][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 19, the A-share baijiu sector experienced significant volatility, with leading company Kweichow Moutai's stock falling by 2.18% to 1578.98 yuan per share, resulting in a total market capitalization dropping below 2 trillion yuan [3][5]. - The overall performance of the baijiu sector is declining, with projections indicating that nearly all listed baijiu companies will see a slowdown in revenue growth in 2024, contrasting with over half of the companies achieving double-digit growth in 2023 [8][24]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The newly revised regulations on government spending, effective from May 18, explicitly restrict the provision of high-end meals and alcohol during official receptions, which has directly impacted the consumption of premium baijiu [5][10]. - Kweichow Moutai's recent shareholder meeting featured a shift from a traditional banquet with baijiu to a self-service meal without any Moutai liquor, indicating a significant change in corporate culture and consumption patterns [6][8]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The baijiu industry is facing a challenging environment characterized by excess production capacity, supply-demand imbalances, and structural issues, leading to a significant increase in inventory levels among major companies [24][25]. - As of the end of 2023, the total inventory of 19 A-share listed baijiu companies reached 148.5 billion yuan, with expectations for further increases in 2024, highlighting the pressing issue of stock management within the industry [24][25]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recovery of the baijiu industry is closely tied to broader economic conditions, with a potential rebound expected if the real estate market improves, as the primary consumer base for mid-to-high-end baijiu is linked to the real estate sector [23][24]. - Expanding into international markets is seen as a crucial strategy for growth, with current overseas revenue for leading baijiu companies being significantly lower compared to global competitors in the liquor industry [26].

Core Viewpoint - A new "ban on alcohol" regulation has been introduced, which prohibits the serving of alcohol at work meals, coinciding with the Guizhou Moutai shareholders' meeting where traditional Moutai products were replaced with blueberry juice [1][7]. Group 1: New Regulations Impact - The new regulation, effective from May 18, explicitly states that work meals cannot include high-end dishes, cigarettes, or alcohol [1]. - At the Guizhou Moutai shareholders' dinner on May 18, traditional Moutai products were absent, replaced by "Umeet" blueberry juice, marking a significant change in the company's hospitality approach [1][3]. Group 2: Shareholder Meeting Highlights - During the shareholders' meeting on May 19, Guizhou Moutai's chairman Zhang Deqin expressed support for the new regulation, emphasizing the need for the Chinese liquor industry to return to its roots [1][7]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% for 2025, focusing on market, channel, service, and brand development [7]. - The shareholders approved a profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 34.671 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Shareholder Engagement - Shareholders were allowed to purchase various Moutai products at original prices during the meeting, leading to a surge in purchases as many took advantage of the opportunity [5][7].

（图片系AI生成） 5月18日，中共中央、国务院修订发布的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》（以下简称《条例》）明 确规定，公务接待工作餐"不得提供香烟，不上酒"。 笔者注意到，目前市场将这一政策视为"新禁酒令"，预计会引发白酒行业短期波动。19日开盘，白酒股 集体走低，其中头部几家领跌，似乎印证了上述猜想。 不过，业内对此并不担忧。实际上，这些年全国各地的"禁酒令"已相对常态化，但政务消费退潮后白酒 也已实现消费转型。眼下，白酒更应专注应对周期挑战。 "禁酒令"常态化下白酒政务消费已退潮 早在2013年白酒受多重因素影响进入调整期后，白酒企业就被迫向商务和个人消费转型。因此政务白酒 消费潮早已褪去，如今在整个白酒消费市场占比较低。 目前业内普遍认为，此次"新禁酒令"的影响如以往一样，更多是催化市场情绪短期波动，长期看对白酒 行业无实质影响。 中国酒业独立评论人肖竹青认为，在2013年之前，中国高端白酒是由公款消费支撑，2013年中央八项规 定之后，中国高端白酒是有高净值人群和各行各业的民营企业家成为中国高端白酒主力的消费人群。 "此次重新学习八项规定，短期会引起股市波动，长期而言不会有大的影响，因为高端白酒消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly revised "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste by Party and Government Agencies" has been issued, which restricts high-end dining and alcohol consumption in official settings, leading to a decline in the liquor sector, particularly in the baijiu market [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Baijiu Industry - Following the announcement of the new regulations, several baijiu companies, including Yingjia Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu, saw their stock prices drop by over 2%, with Jinshiyuan experiencing a decline of more than 3.5% [1]. - Analysts suggest that the impact of the new regulations on the baijiu industry will be limited, as the proportion of government consumption in baijiu sales has already decreased significantly, now accounting for less than 5% [1][2]. - The previous "Central Eight Regulations" have already reduced the share of government consumption in high-end baijiu, shifting the focus to business and residential demand [2]. Group 2: Historical Context of Regulations - The baijiu industry has faced multiple disruptions from "ban on alcohol" policies since 2011, with significant impacts noted after the introduction of the "Central Eight Regulations" [2][3]. - The government has implemented strict measures against public alcohol consumption, which has historically affected high-end baijiu sales, but the current market dynamics show a shift towards business and residential consumption [2][3]. Group 3: Business Wine Market Challenges - The decline in the public wine market has forced companies to focus on the business wine segment, which primarily consists of mid-to-high-end products [4]. - Major baijiu companies have adjusted their product structures, with a significant portion of revenue now coming from mid-to-high-end products [5]. - However, the business wine market is facing challenges, with reports indicating a substantial decrease in business consumption frequency and overall sales, with some companies experiencing a 20%-50% decline in performance [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Many baijiu companies are proactively lowering their performance targets for 2025 to alleviate pressure, contrasting with previous years' growth ambitions [6]. - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have adjusted their revenue growth expectations to align more closely with macroeconomic indicators [6].

近两年来，白酒股多次受到"禁酒令"影响，2022年10月，由于传言公务员将执行更严格的"禁酒令"，当 日贵州茅台大跌超过5%，泸州老窖跌幅超过8%，多支白酒股跌幅超过5%。 酒类分析师蔡学飞告诉第一财经记者，2012年八项规定出台后，白酒行业受到重挫，第二轮白酒牛市结 束，进入深度调整期，因此市场对禁酒令有一定的恐慌。实际上类似文件每年都会颁布，而且目前中国 白酒消费中政务消费的比例已经很低。 中国白酒消费中政务消费的比例已经很低。 5月18日，新修订后的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》（下称《条例》）正式印发，其中明确工作 餐不得提供高档菜肴，不得提供香烟，不上酒。今日（19日）开盘后白酒股股价集体走低，但较几年 前"禁酒令"时波动有限。业内看来，中国白酒消费中政务消费的比例已经很低。 《条例》显示，在第四章公务接待部分，明确接待单位应当严格按照标准安排接待对象的住宿用房，协 助安排用餐、用车的按照标准收取伙食费、交通费。工作餐不得提供高档菜肴，不得提供香烟，不上 酒。不得在接待费中列支应当由接待对象承担的费用，不得以举办会议、培训等名义列支、转移、隐匿 接待费开支。 今日开盘后，白酒股股价集体走低，截至记 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the historical Prohibition era in the United States and current economic challenges, highlighting how extreme policies can lead to unintended consequences and societal issues. Group 1: Historical Context of Prohibition - The Prohibition era began in 1920 with the aim of reducing alcohol consumption and improving societal morals, but it resulted in increased crime and a thriving black market for alcohol [2][4][6]. - The initial goals of Prohibition, such as reducing crime rates and improving public health, were not achieved; instead, the government lost tax revenue and incurred high enforcement costs [3][20]. - The rise of organized crime, particularly figures like Al Capone, was fueled by the lucrative illegal alcohol trade, leading to significant societal and economic impacts [12][16][17]. Group 2: Economic Implications - During Prohibition, the average annual alcohol consumption in the U.S. increased by 50%, and prices for alcoholic beverages skyrocketed, with beer prices rising by 700% [21][22]. - The government spent millions on enforcement, yet the lack of regulation led to dangerous practices in alcohol production, resulting in increased health risks for the public [21][22]. - The economic downturn during the Great Depression contributed to calls for the repeal of Prohibition, as restoring the alcohol industry was seen as a way to stimulate the economy and create jobs [22][23]. Group 3: Modern Parallels - The article suggests that current U.S. policies, such as tariffs and trade restrictions, are reminiscent of Prohibition, as they may lead to increased burdens on ordinary citizens and encourage alternative methods to circumvent regulations [24][25]. - The historical lesson indicates that extreme policies can exacerbate existing problems rather than resolve them, highlighting the need for more balanced approaches to economic challenges [24][25].