2025 年贵金属市场表现如何？有哪些关键因素影响了贵金属价格？ 2025 年贵金属市场表现强劲，尤其是黄金和白银。宽松货币政策是其中一个 重要因素，但从数据拟合度来看，这一因素主要集中在第一季度。其他影响因 素包括避险需求、金融市场对冲配置需求等，这些都推动了贵金属价格的上涨。 全球白银库存虽有所增长，但可交割部分显著减少，美国 COMEX 市场 注册仓单快速流入，但未注册仓单仍锁定不流通，使得可交割部分下滑 至 4,000 吨以下，市场依然紧张。 印度对白银进口需求飙升，加剧了全球现货紧缺局面。美国关税政策引 发国内溢价走阔，也推升了整体需求。预计未来一段时间内国内外对白 银行情仍将保持紧张态势，并可能推动价格进一步上涨。 央行购金也是一个重要因素，从 2022 年至 2024 年间，央行购金摆脱了货币 政策紧缩周期，对贵金属价格形成托底作用。然而，从 2025 年来看，央行购 金力度略有下降，但仍维持较高水平，对市场信心形成支持。 2026 年黄金和白银的价格走势如何？ 2026 年开门红金属巡礼——贵金属系列 20260120 2026 年黄金和白银的价格走势预计将继续保持上涨趋势。对于黄金，我们认 ...

2026年1月21日早盘，国际贵金属与债券市场呈现联动异动。伦敦现货黄金直线拉涨，盘中首次突破 4800美元/盎司整数关口，最高触及4802.1美元/盎司，日内涨幅0.77%，本周累计涨幅超4%，年内涨幅 已逼近10%；同期日债市场止跌反弹，10年期日债收益率从1999年以来的高位2.33%回落至2.21%，带动 美国10年期国债收益率跌破4.5%，30年期美债收益率自去年以来首次跌破5%，全球避险资产与固定收 益市场形成共振格局。 市场对当前资产走势的分歧持续存在，多空逻辑各有支撑。乐观派认为，地缘风险常态化、美联储降息 预期及央行购金需求，将推动金价继续冲高，而日本的债市调控措施能短期稳定全球固定收益市场，美 债企稳态势有望延续。东吴期货等机构指出，支撑金价的核心逻辑尚未改变，其战略配置价值仍将凸 显。 谨慎观点则聚焦潜在风险与政策可持续性。部分分析师警示，黄金短期涨幅过大，存在获利了结引发回 调的压力，美元若出现阶段性反弹可能削弱贵金属表现。日债方面，日本财政债务占GDP比重超 260%，扩张性财政政策与货币政策转向的矛盾未解决，此次反弹或为短期修复，长期仍面临供需失衡 压力。美债也需应对本周五年期、七 ...

宏观经济方面美国2025年12月核心CPI同比和环比增速均符合预期，且与前值一致。美国2025年12月核 心CPI同比上涨2.6%，基本符合预期值2.7%，前值2.6%；环比上涨0.2%，基本符合预期值0.3%，前值 0.2%；核心CPI表现平稳，整体通胀压力保持温和。 美国2025年11月零售销售环比增长好于预期。美国2025年11月零售销售环比增长0.6%，高于预期值 0.5%和前值-0.1%；显示消费韧性较强。 美国2025年11月核心PPI同比增速高于前值和预期，环比持平。美国2025年11月核心PPI同比上涨3%， 高于前值2.6%和预期值2.7%，环比持平，显示生产端价格压力有限。 美国2025年10月新屋销售表现平稳。美国2025年10月新屋销售年化总量在73.7万套附近，环比小幅下降 0.1%，高于预期-10.6%，但低于前值20.5%。 美国2025年12月成屋销售环比大幅增长好于预期。美国2025年12月成屋销售年化总量435万套，环比增 长5.1%，大幅高于预期值2.2%和前值0.7%；创近三年单月高点。 二、主要指数相关情况 1、 一周指数表现 上周（1月12日-16日），标普油气指数 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 特朗普政府与欧洲地缘问题持续，欧洲各国或抛售美债反制，美国最高院开审库克 | | | 长线持有 | 案，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可，短期强势。中长期，地缘秩序重塑， | | ★★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，短期白银未被征收关税叠加交易所调保 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 或会带来调整，但全年来看交割交易等持续，注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口 | | ★★ | | | | | 连续 | 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 欧洲抛美债、日债押注黄金，金融市场或酝酿风暴，消费淡季铜累库明显，隔夜铜 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 承压回落，失守 10 万关口，建议多单移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中长期 | | ★ | | 对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观多空交织，消费淡季高锌价对需求抑制作用明显，叠加宏观和板块情绪退潮， | | 锌 | 承压回落 | ...

1月21日亚洲交易时段，现货黄金首次突破4800美元/盎司整数关口。 本周，现货黄金价格已涨超200美元/盎司，涨近4%；年内涨幅超11%，涨超500美元/盎司。 东吴期货指出，近日贵金属震荡上行。一方面，美国宣称对欧洲国家加征关税，避险情绪再次升温利多贵金属；其次，鲍威尔遭到刑事起诉，本 质上看是美联储独立性再次遭到挑战，美元信用再遭打击；最后，波兰央行宣布增持黄金，另外丹麦养老基金决定抛售美债，都在一定程度上利 好黄金。后续重点关注美联储主席人选，美欧关税对峙，南美及格陵兰岛的地缘影响等。 据央视新闻客户端消息，总台记者当地时间1月20日获悉，丹麦目前正在制定计划，拟于2026年向格陵兰岛派遣多达1000名作战士兵。海军和空军 也可能参与其中。 另据央视新闻客户端消息，美国总统特朗普20日在白宫记者会上表示，他不会参加法国总统马克龙所提议近期在巴黎举行的七国集团首脑紧急会 议。 浙商期货表示，美国对欧洲加征关税引发贸易摩擦与地缘风险，提升黄金避险需求；美联储降息预期及市场流动性关注，叠加国内政策稳定宏观 环境，共同推高贵金属价格。 截至发稿时，现货黄金（伦敦金现）报4828.59美元/盎司，涨1.38%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the

Union Bancaire Privee全球外汇策略长肯赛拉接受彭博电视台访问时说："我们已进入主要强权资源民族主义大行其道 的时代。"他认为，货币未必是投资这种地缘政治主题的最佳方式，黄金还是最强押注标的。 另据CBSNEWS发文称，对于大多数50岁以上的投资者来说，将黄金分配在总资产的5%到10%之间，既实现了多元化 与增长潜力之间的平衡，又能提供对通胀和市场波动的有意义的防护，同时不会牺牲退休人员可能需要数十年的生计 开支。 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间1月21日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.98%报4769.10美元/ 盎司，COMEX白银期货涨0.19%报94.46美元/盎司。市场人士称，美国对欧洲加征关税引发贸易摩擦与地缘风险，提 升黄金避险需求；美联储降息预期及市场流动性关注，叠加国内政策稳定宏观环境，共同推高贵金属价格。 联合新闻网发文称，市场担忧美国与欧洲爆发冲击力强大的贸易战，资金涌向贵金属避险，金价一举涨破每盎司4700 美元大关；再创新高，银价在登上空前新高峰后回落。分析师认为，在地缘政治风险和资源民族主义升温的时代，黄 金成为投资者的理想避险选择。 同时， ...

金价持续"狂飙"。 1月20日，国际金价走势强劲，历史首次突破4700美元/盎司整数关口。截至记者发稿，伦敦金现日 内大涨1.38%，现报4733.827美元/盎司，盘中最高触及4736.368美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。 其三，全球央行尤其是新兴市场央行持续购入黄金，其长期平稳需求为金价提供了长期支撑。 此外，美联储主席鲍威尔被调查，引发市场对其政策独立性的担忧，美元信用受质疑，部分资金转 而涌向黄金以求保值。 展望后市，隋东分析，短期来看，金价可能面临高位震荡与回调压力，但中长期上涨逻辑未破。若 美联储降息落地或地缘风险升级，年内价格有望冲击5000美元。金价核心驱动力在于央行购金潮与避险 需求共振，后续建议投资者密切跟踪美联储政策转向及全球经济演变，预计全年金价呈现"先震荡、后 冲高"格局。 国泰海通研报指出，地缘政治剧变背景下，黄金具备较强韧性与避险属性，建议超配黄金。全球地 缘政治局势的不确定性上升以及各国央行持续购金有利于支撑长期金价中枢。虽然投机性交易资金的流 "黄金等贵金属价格整体上涨，主要受美国威胁对欧洲八国加征关税以及占领格陵兰岛等事件影 响。"厚石天成投资总经理侯延军分析表示，全球地缘政治 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, reaching a historic high of over $95 per ounce with a single-day increase of nearly 7%, is attributed to multiple converging factors, including trade tensions, monetary policy expectations, and supply-demand imbalances [1][10]. Market Background - Global silver inventories are critically low, with London vaults only sufficient for 1.2 months of global usage, indicating a severe supply crunch [3]. - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, has been aggressively accumulating silver, increasing its holdings by 11.28 tons on January 16, raising total holdings to 16,073.06 tons, signaling strong demand [3]. Factors Driving Price Surge - **Trade Risk Aversion**: Heightened trade tensions, particularly due to U.S. tariffs on European countries and geopolitical statements from the U.S., have led to increased demand for silver as a safe-haven asset [3]. - **Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations**: Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest potential rate cuts in 2026, weakening the U.S. dollar and making silver more expensive in dollar terms [5]. - **Industrial Demand Growth**: Silver's role has expanded beyond jewelry to critical applications in the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar energy, where demand is projected to exceed 5,000 tons in 2026, representing over 55% of total global demand [6]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The surge in silver prices has prompted some industries to explore alternatives to silver, such as copper and aluminum, potentially reducing industrial demand [8]. - While short-term gains are significant, there are warnings of a potential 20%-30% price correction due to speculative trading and overbought conditions in the market [8]. - Long-term prospects remain positive, with expected annual price increases of 10%-15% driven by ongoing demand from the solar and electric vehicle sectors, alongside supportive monetary policies [8][10].

[Table_Title] 2026 黄金，乘风破浪 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之十四 [Table_Summary] ► 2023-2025 年，金价从蓄势到狂奔 过去三年，黄金价格势如破竹，节节攀升，收益属性远超历 史。美联储货币政策的预期依然是决定金价趋势的主要因 素，而地缘政治冲突、美国自身风险以及由此衍生的对美元 信用担忧，则成为加大金价涨幅的新催化剂。此外，全球央 行的持续购金行为，为稳定金价底部提供有力支撑。 ►2026 年主线一：降息预期 2026 年，仍处于降息周期之中。最新的点阵图显示 2026 年 仅有 1 次幅度为 25bp 的降息，且各委员预测分布较为分散， 反映出美联储内部对未来经济前景的不同判断，政策路径仍 存在较大分歧，甚至有委员认为利率点位落在 2%-2.5%的区 间内。然而，市场预期 2026 年美联储将有两次降息，合计约 为 45bp，降至 3.2%左右。虽明显高于美联储的降息预期， 但与点阵图的极端预测值仍存在较大差距，表征着市场的降 息预期也尚未发酵到极致。 往后看，美联储换帅，可能成为影响降息预期的关键。市场 普遍认为美联储的人事变动倾向 ...