Core Viewpoint - Recent sudden easing of Hong Kong dollar liquidity has led to a sharp decline in Hong Kong dollar interest rates, resulting in active interest rate arbitrage activities and a significant rebound of the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations and Market Dynamics - The US dollar to Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has experienced fluctuations within a range, which is considered normal under the linked exchange rate system [2]. - In early May, strong demand for the Hong Kong dollar due to stock market activities and concerns over "de-dollarization" led the currency pair to drop to 7.75 [2]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) bought 17 billion USD and sold 1,294 billion HKD, increasing the balance from 44.6 billion HKD to 174 billion HKD, the highest level since July 2022 [2]. - The sudden easing of Hong Kong dollar liquidity has caused the overnight Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) to approach zero, with the interest rate spread between short-term secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and HIBOR widening to unprecedented levels [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Currency Movements - The speed of the rebound in the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar has exceeded expectations, driven by temporary demand for the Hong Kong dollar related to upcoming IPOs and dividend payments [3]. - There has been a notable slowdown in capital inflows through the Stock Connect program from mainland China, dropping to 5.8 billion USD in May compared to an average of 20 billion USD per month from January to April [3]. - Existing issues of weak credit demand in the Hong Kong economy have been exacerbated, with the loan-to-deposit ratio for the Hong Kong dollar reaching a decades-low of 72.3% in April [3]. Group 3: Future Projections and Considerations - The ability of the US dollar to Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to significantly drop below 7.85 will depend on the reduction of the balance, which previously fell to 54 billion HKD in 2019 and 45 billion HKD in 2023 [4][5]. - Factors such as the acceleration of stock fund inflows, demand related to the current dividend season and IPOs, and the potential for Hong Kong residents to engage in "de-dollarization" transactions will be critical [5][7]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with approximately 60 basis points anticipated starting in September, could influence the US dollar to Hong Kong dollar exchange rate [7]. Group 4: Sustainability of the Linked Exchange Rate System - The sustainability of the linked exchange rate system hinges on the HKMA's sufficient foreign exchange reserves, which are currently at nearly 200% of the monetary base, exceeding the theoretical requirement of 100% [13]. - Historical patterns indicate that when the Federal Reserve significantly cuts rates, the US dollar to Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has previously dropped to 7.75, suggesting that various factors influence currency fluctuations beyond just interest rate cycles [12][13].

Group 1 - Hong Kong will maintain the peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, while enhancing its position as a global offshore RMB business center, with plans to introduce more RMB products for overseas investors [1] - The US Senate plans to propose significant revisions to Trump's $3 trillion economic plan, aiming for enactment before July 4, despite criticisms from figures like Elon Musk [1] - The New York Fed's survey indicates a decline in US consumer inflation expectations for May, with the one-year expectation dropping from 3.6% to 3.2%, marking the first decline since 2024 [2] Group 2 - Japan's Cabinet Office revised the first quarter GDP contraction to a 0.2% annual rate, better than the initial estimate of 0.7%, which may support the Bank of Japan's cautious stance [2] - The Japanese government is considering repurchasing previously issued ultra-long bonds at low interest rates, in response to rising yields [3] - Japanese investors sold a record ¥1.48 trillion in German sovereign bonds in April, the largest monthly reduction since 2014, and also sold ¥1.07 trillion in US sovereign bonds, the largest reduction since October of the previous year [3] Group 3 - US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones remaining flat at 42,761.76 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.09% to 6,005.88 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.31% to 19,591.24 points [4] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 4.15 basis points to 3.993%, and the 10-year yield down 3.18 basis points to 4.474% [4] Group 4 - International oil prices strengthened, with US crude oil main contract rising by 1.24% to $65.38 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract increasing by 0.96% to $67.11 per barrel [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.19% to 99.01, while non-US currencies generally appreciated against the dollar [5]

Group 1 - The influx of hot money into Hong Kong has led to a rise in the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) exchange rate to 7.75, but it has recently dropped to a low of 7.84, marking the weakest level since September 2023 [1][2] - Factors such as increased IPO activity, southbound capital inflows, low deposit rates in mainland China, and capital returning from the US are driving liquidity into Hong Kong [1][2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) may intervene further in the market due to the negative interest rate differential between the US dollar and the HKD [2] Group 2 - The HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) is expected to rise in the coming months due to dividend distributions, quarter-end funding demands, and the absorption of liquidity from bond and stock issuances [1][2] - The current loan-to-deposit ratio in Hong Kong is 20 percentage points lower than in 2019, indicating low credit demand despite a liquidity-rich environment [2] - The HKMA's currency peg system has remained intact since 1983, despite historical foreign exchange crises [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) indicates that the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) interbank rates are approaching US dollar rates due to market supply and demand, with current conditions showing an oversupply of HKD funds. Future fluctuations in the HKD exchange rate and interest rates are anticipated, and citizens are advised to consider potential risks in their financial decisions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The HKD has recently strengthened due to increased capital market activities, particularly from the southbound stock connect, with the Hang Seng Index rising approximately 10% year-to-date and the technology index up 14% [2]. - In early May, the HKMA intervened in the market, buying a total of $16.7 billion USD and selling 129.4 billion HKD, as the HKD exchange rate approached the strong-side convertibility guarantee level of 7.75 HKD to 1 USD [2][3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - Following the HKMA's market intervention, the HKD liquidity surged nearly fourfold, increasing from approximately 45 billion HKD to about 174 billion HKD, leading to a significant drop in interbank rates, with the one-month interbank rate falling from an average of 3.65% in April to 0.96% [3]. - The overnight rate also decreased from an average of 3.41% in April to 0.03%, reflecting normal market behavior under the linked exchange rate system [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the HKD exchange rate and interest rates remains uncertain, influenced by factors such as seasonal demand for funds from new stock offerings and dividend distributions, as well as external factors like US Federal Reserve policies and global financial market conditions [4]. - If the oversupply of HKD persists, the market forces from carry trades may weaken the HKD exchange rate, potentially leading to a rise in HKD interbank rates, which could approach US dollar rates [4].

中国香港关键的银行间拆借利率大幅走低，此前中国香港采取外汇干预措施，引发了市场对港元的看跌 押注。香港1个月期银行间同业拆借利率(Hibor)扩大跌幅，周二跌破1%，为2022年以来首次。港元5月 以来已下跌近1%，势创1983年联系汇率制度实施以来最大单月跌幅。5月初，中国香港金管局介入，通 过大量抛售本币以抑制其升势。此项操作提升了市场流动性、降低了借贷成本，因而缓解了港元升值压 力。（彭博） ...

（本文作者王树西，对外经济贸易大学信息学院讲师） 金管局表示将持续监察市场，未来若有波动可能进一步行动。此次干预反映市场对美联储政策的预期 ——美元走弱、资金流向新兴市场。 综上，港元强势与金管局干预增强了国际投资者对香港金融市场的信心，吸引资本流入。预计以下港股 板块或受益：科技成长股、高股息蓝筹股、银行板块、消费复苏板块、新能源与ESG主题板块、房地产 板块。 此次干预背景复杂。据金管局发言人表示，近期港元偏强主因股票投资相关的港元需求增加：全球经济 不确定性上升，国际资金流入香港，港股持续上涨推升港元需求；叠加美元走弱，投资者对美元避险地 位存疑，资金流出美元资产加剧港元升值压力。 金管局干预既是维护汇率稳定，也是确保金融市场有序运作。香港超4000亿美元的外汇储备足以支撑此 类干预、稳固市场信心。投资者需密切关注港元走势，及时调整策略应对波动。 对经济和市场有何影响？ 一方面，购买美元意味着向市场注入港元，扩大货币基础、增加供应，银行体系结余上升可能短期压低 香港利率，刺激经济活动或资产价格；另一方面，港元与美元挂钩，香港利率长期跟随美国，干预对利 率整体影响有限。 干预的核心意义在于稳定汇率，保障进 ...

Group 1: Currency Appreciation and Economic Impact - The recent appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) against the US Dollar has been significant, with a cumulative increase of approximately 9% between May 2 and May 5, and a single-day surge of 5% on May 5, causing shockwaves in global financial markets [1] - Currency appreciation can be detrimental for export-driven economies, as it makes export products more expensive, potentially leading to a long-term decline in exports and negatively impacting economic stability and employment [3] - Taiwan's economy is heavily reliant on exports, with total exports exceeding $430 billion in 2023, accounting for 58% of its GDP, which is significantly higher than most countries [5] Group 2: Hong Kong Dollar Stability - The Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) has remained stable within the range of 7.75 to 7.79 HKD per USD, largely due to its pegged exchange rate system, which has been in place since October 17, 1983 [7] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened in the market by absorbing USD sell orders to maintain the HKD's stability, injecting a total of 116.6 billion HKD into the market from May 2 to May 5 [7][8] - The demand for HKD has surged due to increased IPO activities in the Hong Kong stock market, with 147 companies applying for listings by the end of April, and the need for companies to convert USD to HKD for dividend payments [10] Group 3: Broader Currency Trends - Many Asian currencies, including the NTD, have experienced appreciation, while the offshore RMB also saw an increase during the May Day holiday, indicating a broader trend in the region [5] - The ongoing inflation pressures in the US, driven by tariffs and rising costs, limit the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, which keeps investors inclined to hold USD assets [12]

中金公司研究部外汇研究首席分析师李刘阳指出，未来如果香港持续面临资本流入压力，可能会看到香 港金管局持续买入美元并投放港元流动性，稳定港元汇率的同时抑制外汇投机。 IPO及派息期等因素推升港元需求 余伟文表示，香港股市表现好，大量"港股通"南向资金流入，而美股于4月起大幅调整，部分资金转投 欧洲及亚洲。同时，美元下挫令大量亚洲货币短仓需要平仓，推升港元需求。 李刘阳分析认为，港币近期对美元走强一方面是因为港美利差收窄，引起套息需求减弱，港元空头平仓 导致汇率走强。第二个原因则是香港近期呈现一定资本流入。他提到，"南向资金近期加速流入港股， 市场也有一定的互联互通机制优化预期，这推升了港元的需求。" 新华财经香港5月9日电（记者林迎楠）资金涌港势头自上月初开始加速，并再触及7.75强方兑换保证。 自5月2日以来，香港金融管理局已四次入巿承接美元沽盘，累计注资1294.02亿港元。截至5月8日，香 港银行体系总结余增至1741亿港元。 业内专家分析认为，大型IPO来港和大型企业派息等因素增加巿场对港元的需求，预计继续有资金流入 港元，美元兑港元短期内将维持在7.75附近。 联汇制度增强港元吸引力 美国总统特朗普4 ...

美国对其全球贸易伙伴滥施关税后，亚洲多个经济体的货币近期兑美元升值，以减弱对美贸易顺差，包括港元在 内的多个亚洲区货币走强，港元一度触及香港联系汇率制度的"强方兑换保证"水平。 南都、N视频记者获悉，这也是自2020年以来，香港金管局首次为应对港元汇率强势而入市。香港金管局总裁余 伟文在香港特区立法会财经事务委员会会议上总结道，港元汇率强势有多项因素推动，除了美元走弱因素外，还 包括近期多个大型IPO拟赴港上市及大型企业派发股息，拉动了资金需求。 市场消息称，近期计划来港上市的大型IPO，包括内地龙头茶饮企业沪上阿姨、电池巨头宁德时代等。另外还有 电子支付领军企业也正在研究来港上市事宜。市场普遍认为这一趋势有望提振港股表现。 在联系汇率制度下，香港金管局可以采取措施维护行业汇率稳定。图为香港银行街。 香港外汇基金投资表现稳健，美元资产占比降至79% 香港金管局总裁余伟文近日披露，香港外汇基金在今年第一季度的投资表现稳健，债券、港股、汇兑收益形成了 三重支撑。 值得关注的是，香港外汇基金持续十几年推进资产多元化改革，取得显著进展，目前美元资产占比已从逾90%降 至79%。除了股票和债券，香港外汇基金还通过布局私 ...

在2025年5月8日，美联储公布其最新的议息决定之际，香港金融管理局（金管局）迅速作出回应，就当 前港元及金融市场的状况进行了详细阐述。 据金管局表示，近期中国香港的货币及金融市场整体保持有序运作。尤其值得注意的是，港元汇率在近 期出现了走强的趋势。这一变化主要得益于与股票投资相关的港元需求的增加，以及区内其他货币兑美 元升值的带动作用。这一系列因素共同触发了联系汇率制度下7.75港元兑1美元的"强方兑换保证"。 在联系汇率制度下，当港元汇率触及强方兑换保证水平时，香港金管局会按照机制从市场中买入美元， 并相应地沽出港元。这一操作导致银行体系的总结余上升，进而增加了港元的流动性。受此影响，港元 拆息有所回落，显示出市场资金状况有所改善。 对于美联储的议息决定，香港金管局指出，美联储维持联邦基金利率目标区间于4.25-4.5%不变，这一决 定符合市场预期。然而，美联储在货币政策上的观望态度也不容忽视。近期，美国当局公布的一系列关 税措施为当地通胀和经济前景增添了不确定性。这些关税措施的变化不仅影响着美国的国内经济，也对 全球金融市场产生了深远的影响。 当前金融市场面临诸多不确定性因素，但香港金管局已做好充分准备 ...