Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **chemical industry**, focusing on the **polyester supply chain**, **ethylene glycol**, **PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid)**, and **PX (Paraxylene)** markets, along with insights into **polypropylene** and **PVC** markets. Key Insights and Arguments Polyester Supply Chain - The polyester supply chain prices are influenced by multiple factors including costs, policies, and geopolitical issues. In April, prices dropped significantly due to cost declines, while in May, prices rebounded with tariff policy changes and oil price increases. In June, Middle Eastern conflicts led to rapid oil price increases, affecting upstream aromatic prices like PX and PTA, which subsequently raised downstream product prices significantly [1][3]. - Ethylene glycol's performance in the first half of 2025 was weak, primarily due to stable supply from coal-based production amid disrupted demand, leading to a relatively soft price trend [4]. - The price spread between PX and Brent crude oil was at a near five-year low in 2025, although it recovered slightly after tariff cancellations. Overall, PX valuations remain low due to weakened gasoline cracking margins and reduced demand for toluene and xylene [5]. PX and PTA Market Dynamics - The US demand for aromatics showed a decline in April and May, particularly in toluene and benzene imports from South Korea, leading to a seasonal demand drop in Asia [6]. - Polyester fiber operating rates decreased at the beginning of the year, but remained high during seasonal declines in PX and PTA operating rates, resulting in significant destocking effects in Q2 [7]. - PTA is expected to see increased production capacity in the second half of 2025, which may lead to inventory pressure, while PX has no new capacity planned for the year, relying on imports to maintain supply-demand balance [8]. Future Market Expectations - The PTA market is expected to face inventory accumulation due to increased production and weakened polyester demand, particularly from bottle-grade polyester [13]. - The PX market's performance is closely tied to oil prices and geopolitical stability. A potential easing of Middle Eastern tensions could lead to lower oil prices, impacting PX valuations negatively [9]. - The overall polyester industry is projected to see a decrease in operating rates by 3% to 4% in the second half of 2025, with significant reductions in bottle-grade polyester production anticipated [12]. Polypropylene and PVC Market Insights - The polypropylene market is currently in a bearish trend due to accelerated capacity expansion, weak demand, and macroeconomic uncertainties. Seasonal demand in the second half may provide some support, but supply pressures from new production remain a concern [2][23]. - The PVC market faces significant supply-demand pressures, with high levels of new capacity expected to come online, while domestic demand remains weak due to low construction activity [52][54]. Additional Important Points - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and macroeconomic policies, as these factors significantly influence market dynamics and pricing strategies across the chemical industry [20][61]. - The need for cautious optimism regarding PX imports and the overall supply-demand balance was emphasized, particularly in light of potential production disruptions and the impact of external market conditions [22][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the chemical industry, particularly in the polyester, polypropylene, and PVC markets.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The international oil price is running strongly in a range, and the cost - driven guidance for PX is limited. PX is expected to be in a destocking rhythm in the next few months. The focus of the current fundamentals is on the demand side, and prices are affected by marginal demand while following cost changes. [2] - The supply of PTA is gradually increasing, with inventory accumulation expected in July, which is negative for the PTA market. In the short - term, PTA prices will move in a range, and the fundamentals have no driving force after downstream production cuts. [2] - The polyester bottle - chip market has a light trading atmosphere, with sufficient supply and limited downstream purchasing intention. The recent start - up rate may decline slightly. [2] - Considering the current demand in the polyester industry chain is not optimistic, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run strongly, with all having a view score of 1. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 11, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $68.15 per barrel, up 4.88%; that of Brent crude oil was $69.77 per barrel, up 4.34%. The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $571.50 per ton, down 0.35%. [1] - **PTA Price**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,620 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 4,606 yuan per ton, down 0.73%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,818 yuan per ton, down 0.82%. [1] - **PX Price**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,528 yuan per ton, up 0.40%; the settlement price was 6,506 yuan per ton, down 0.70%. The PX CFR China price was $812 per ton. [1][2] - **PR Price**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,802 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 5,788 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,890 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. [1] - **Downstream Product Prices**: Most CCFEI price indices of downstream polyester products remained stable or declined slightly on June 11, 2025. For example, the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6,495 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. [2] 2. Spread Information - The near - far month spread of PTA was 250 yuan per ton on June 11, 2025, an increase of 10 yuan per ton; the basis was 200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43 yuan per ton. [1] - The PXN spread of PX was $240.50 per ton, down 1.37%; the PX - MX spread was $109 per ton, down 7.49%; the basis was - 36 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26 yuan per ton. [1] - The basis of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 88 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton; in the South China market, it was 198 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton. [1] 3. Start - up Rate Information - On June 11, 2025, the start - up rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.07%, down 1.45 percentage points. The PTA factory load rate in the PTA industry chain was 83.56%, unchanged. [1] - The polyester factory load rate was 89.64%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 83.82%, unchanged; the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 69.09%, unchanged. [1] 4. Production and Sales Rate Information - On June 11, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 29%, down 28 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 75%, unchanged; the sales rate of polyester chips was 69%, down 42 percentage points. [1] 5. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20. A 0.8 - million - ton PX device in South China is under planned maintenance, and some device maintenance plans are postponed. [2] 6. Important News - Sino - US trade talks have a certain supporting effect on economic growth and oil demand, but the increase in gasoline and distillate inventories suppresses oil prices. The reduction of polyester short - fiber production affects the demand expectation of PX. [2] - The PTA device maintenance peak has passed, new production capacity is in trial operation, and the supply will increase in the month. The reduction of polyester short - fiber production affects market sentiment. [2] - The domestic weaving market in June continues to be weak, with some small US orders emerging. Terminal inventory pressure is high, and the loom start - up rate in June is expected to decline. [2]

化工日报 | 2025-06-11 宏观预期反复，聚酯产业链冲高回落 市场要闻与数据 近期中美在伦敦进行经贸磋商，市场对谈判结果的预期由乐观转为悲观，同时原油价格先转强后回撤，聚酯产业 链冲高回落。 市场分析 成本端，近期市场关注OPEC+增产及地缘变化，油价震荡运行。 汽油和芳烃方面，近期美国汽油裂解再度回撤，在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限，今年的 调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。 芳烃方面，3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复 情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN240美元/吨(环比变动-17.40美元/吨）。近期国内外PX负荷整体提升，一方面是集中检 修期陆续结束，另一方面也与利润修复有关。随着供应恢复，PXN有所回落，不过目前现货市场货源仍较紧张， 关注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展，PX供需偏紧能否延续。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 217 元/吨(环比变动+9元/吨），PTA现货加工费426元/吨（ ...

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 8850.00 | 8850.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/6/10 下 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7175.00 | 0.35% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7150.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D | 2025/6/10 游 | 元/吨 | 7100.00 | 7100.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 6510.00 | 6500.00 | 0.15% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 5850.00 | 5860.00 | -0.17% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 5900.00 | 5900.00 | 0.00% | | 西 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据目报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/10 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/9 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) PTA-SC(元/陣) | 466. 1 1264.8 | 474.3 1155. 2 | 8. 20 -109.59 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,PTA新产能顺利投产,下游聚酯工 厂再度释放减产言论,预估PTA去库存速度放缓,利空 | | | | | | | PTA行情。仓单数量上升且主力供应商排货偏慢,本周 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3734 | 1. 3352 | -0. 0383 | PTA现货流动性偏少,支撑本周现货基差,但6月中下 旬货源基差相对偏低。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 81 ...

王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 8850.00 | 8925.00 | -0.84% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 7175.00 | 7200.00 | -0.35% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7250.00 | -1.38% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/6/9 游 | 元/吨 | 7100.00 | 7200.00 | -1.39% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 6500.00 | 6490.00 | 0.15% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 5860.00 | 5885.00 | -0.42% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/6/9 ...

缺乏有利因素推动，PX、PTA或继续维持偏弱振荡 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 06月06日，PX 主力合约收6556.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.24%，基差为 79.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4652.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.17%，基差 为228.0元/吨。 成本端，06月06日，布油主力合约收盘66.65美元/桶。WTI收64.77美元/ 桶。需求端，06月06日，轻纺城成交总量为754.0万米，15 日平均成交为 808.93万米。 目前PX开工率国内78%，亚洲69.4%，但青岛丽东100万吨PX装置计划6月负 荷提升至90%左右，浙石化歧化装置重启提负，辽阳石化短停的70万吨产能 5月26日重启，GS40万吨产能6月中重启等，PX供应将在6月有大量回归，随 后在7月陆续再度进入多套检修时间。PTA有新装置即将投产，供应压力逐 步回归，终端需求边际走弱，PTA价格可能继续承压。 2. 聚酯 二、 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-04 瓶片减产，聚酯产业链震荡下跌 市场要闻与数据 三房巷装置减停产近70万吨，涉及瓶片和短纤，聚酯负荷进一步下跌预期下，同时终端需求也逐步转弱，市场担 心关税政策反复，产业链价格震荡下跌。 市场分析 成本端，端午期间原油价格震荡上行，乌克兰无人机周日袭击了多个俄罗斯军用机场，造成较大规模损失，地缘 风险迅速升温，后续持续关注地缘变化。 汽油和芳烃方面，当前欧美和新加坡汽油裂解价差季节性有反弹，但整体在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价 差上涨空间有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以 满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利 润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN284美元/吨(环比变动+1.00美元/吨）。近期国内外PX负荷整体提升，一方面是集中检修 期陆续结束，另一方面也与利润修复有关。随着供应恢复，PXN有所回落，不过目前现货市场货源仍较紧张，关 注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展，P ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR rating: Neutral [4] Core View - On Wednesday, major polyester filament manufacturers increased production cuts, and the prices of the industrial chain fluctuated weakly. The market is currently focused on the Iran - US nuclear talks and the OPEC+ eight - country ministerial meeting on June 1st, with no news to guide the oil price, which is in a consolidation phase. The gasoline cracking has rebounded recently, but the seasonal performance is still weaker than in the previous two years. The aromatics blending demand this year is not worth much expectation. The domestic and international intermittent blending demand can be basically met by naphtha, limiting the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool. The supply of PX has recovered, but the spot market is still tight. The PTA price has rebounded, and some device overhauls have been postponed. The polyester demand is strong in the short term but may weaken in mid - to - late June [1][2][3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - dull natural white basis [8][9][11] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report presents the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Information on the startup of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA, as well as Chinese and Asian PX is provided [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory are given [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It contains data on filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [47][49][59] VII. PF Detailed Data - Details on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, and factory inventory available days are provided [71][80][84] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Information on polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread is presented [92][94][102]

化工日报 | 2025-05-23 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN259美元/吨(环比变动+1.00美元/吨）。近期近期宏观利好提振，同时多套px装置计划外 损失增加，进一步收紧PX近月供需预期，市场货源偏紧，加之窗口内PX买气活跃，外商挺价积极，进一步支撑价 格上行，PXN低位反弹，当前已脱离低估值水平。后续5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，但PTA 新装置投产下PX延续去库。整体来看，短期市场情绪好转和计划外检修增多下PXN反弹明显，关注后续PTA检修 和新装置投产进展，当下PX供需偏紧能否延续。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 127 元/吨(环比变动+1元/吨），PTA现货加工费385元/吨（环比变动+36元/吨），主 力合约盘面加工费316元/吨（环比变动-23元/吨），下游聚酯装置持续高开，需求支撑下PTA供需5月延续大幅去库， 5月货偏紧，基差走强，当前PTA价格反弹下装置的检修推迟，后续供应将逐步回归，关注成本支撑。 需求方面，聚酯开工率95.0%（环比+0.8%），在宏观氛围回暖、原料价格反弹下，下游织造、加弹开工快速回升， 中美谈判取得积极进展，降低关税后，纺服订单明显好转， ...