| 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6862 | 4780 | 4410 | 6432 | 512.3 | | 涨跌 | 6810 | 36 | 34 | 60 | -3.5 | | 涨跌幅 | 52 | 0.76% | 0.78% | 0.94% | -0.68% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | 昨日收盘价 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 16 | 25.8 | | 前日收盘价 | 140 | 52 | 16 | 40 | 16.2 | | 涨跌 | -48 | -36 | -13 | -24 | 9.6 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | | 金/吨） | | | | 金/桶) | | 昨日价格 | 842.33 | 4782 | 4467 | 572.88 | 70 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is currently in a weak fundamental situation. PX supply has no positive support, and with the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工. The fundamentals are moving towards weakness. - PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Although PTA processing fees are in a low - range, unplanned device overhauls are difficult to boost prices due to new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season. - Polyester bottle - chip supply is abundant, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious. The entire polyester industry chain follows cost fluctuations, and it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - WTI crude oil futures settlement price (continuous) was $67.34 per barrel on July 18, 2025, down 0.30% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $69.28 per barrel, down 0.35%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $576.38 per ton, up 0.28%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $705.50 per ton, up 1.88%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $839.00 per ton, up 0.74% [1]. - **PTA** - CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,744 yuan per ton on July 18, 2025, up 0.64%; settlement price was 4,752 yuan per ton, up 0.93%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,781 yuan per ton, up 0.99%. The CCFEI price index for domestic PTA was 4,782 yuan per ton, up 1.14%, and the outer - disk index was $622.00 per ton, up 0.32% [1]. - **PX** - CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,810 yuan per ton on July 18, 2025, up 1.01%; settlement price was 6,808 yuan per ton, up 1.40%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,667 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. The spot price (CFR Taiwan, China) was $840.00 per ton, up 0.72%, and the FOB South Korea price was $815.00 per ton, up 0.74% [1]. - **PR** - CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,930 yuan per ton on July 18, 2025, up 0.47%; settlement price was 5,938 yuan per ton, up 0.75%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chip in the East China market was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 0.25%, and in the South China market was 6,030 yuan per ton, up 0.33% [1]. - **Downstream** - The CCFEI price index for polyester staple fiber was 6,630 yuan per ton on July 18, 2025, up 0.38%. The index for polyester chips was 5,850 yuan per ton, up 0.86%, and for bottle - grade chips was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 0.25% [2]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for three months starting from August 1 [2]. Important Information - PX spot price increased by 0.2% week - on - week to $839 per ton CFR by Friday, but the weekly average price decreased by 0.8% to $839 per ton CFR. PTA will have new device production in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether PX profitability can continue to improve depends on unexpected factors [2]. - On July 18, the PX CFR China price was $839 per ton. The oil market on the cost side was strong, a reforming device in East China reduced its load, and with new PTA production capacity in trial operation on the demand side, the expectation of tight supply and demand increased, and the market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude [2]. Transaction Strategy - PTA fluctuated higher, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,744 yuan per ton (up 0.76%), and the daily trading volume was 1.29 million lots. PX price increased, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,810 yuan per ton (up 0.43%), and the daily trading volume was 283,200 lots. PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,930 yuan per ton (up 0.61%), and the daily trading volume was 58,400 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is currently affected by factors such as supply - demand mismatch, new device production expectations, and seasonal consumption patterns. PX has strong bottom support due to low inventory, but its future benefit depends on unexpected factors. The supply side of PX lacks positive support, and the downstream start - up has a strong downward expectation. PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor. Polyester products' prices are generally under pressure due to weakening supply - demand expectations. It is predicted that PX, PTA, and PR will operate strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 17, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $67.54 per barrel (up 1.75%), and that of Brent crude oil was $69.52 per barrel (up 1.46%). The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $574.75 per ton (down 1.14%), and the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $692 per ton (down 1.91%) [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,714 yuan per ton (up 0.17%), and the settlement price was 4,708 yuan per ton (unchanged). The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,734 yuan per ton (up 0.25%) [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,742 yuan per ton (up 0.39%), and the settlement price was 6,714 yuan per ton (down 0.12%). The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,686 yuan per ton (unchanged) [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,902 yuan per ton (up 0.27%), and the settlement price was 5,894 yuan per ton (up 0.20%). The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,935 yuan per ton (up 0.17%), and in the South China market was 6,010 yuan per ton (up 0.17%) [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY decreased by 1.16% to 8,500 yuan per ton, the index of polyester POY decreased by 1.42% to 6,950 yuan per ton, and the index of polyester short - fiber decreased by 0.23% to 6,605 yuan per ton [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.32% (down 0.66 percentage points), the PTA factory load rate was 80.59% (unchanged), the polyester factory load rate was 87.15% (unchanged), the bottle chip factory load rate was 71.93% (unchanged), and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.02% (down 1.10 percentage points) [1]. Production and Sales - The production - sales rate of polyester filament was 40% (down 2 percentage points), the production - sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 53% (up 9 percentage points), and the production - sales rate of polyester chips was 53% (down 10 percentage points) [1]. Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 3.3 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical transformation for three months starting from August 1 [2]. Important Information - International crude oil prices rebounded after three consecutive days of decline due to low inventory in the peak summer demand season and renewed concerns about Middle East geopolitics. PTA will have new device production in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, but its supply side lacks positive support, and the downstream start - up has a strong downward expectation. The market is trading on the maintenance expectation of PTA under low processing fees, but new device production expectations on the supply side and weak demand in the off - season limit price increases [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA fluctuated lower, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,714 yuan per ton (up 0.13%) and an intraday trading volume of 691,800 lots; PX prices returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,742 yuan per ton (up 0.30%) and an intraday trading volume of 159,700 lots; PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,902 yuan per ton (up 0.34%) and an intraday trading volume of 37,400 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate strongly [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate strongly (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 1, PR view score: 1) [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry chain is currently facing weak demand and is mainly driven by cost. PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain has tilted towards the raw material link again [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - On July 17, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $67.54 per barrel, up 1.75%; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.52 per barrel, up 1.46% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $574.75 per ton, down 1.14%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $692.00 per ton, down 1.91% [1] - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $833.00 per ton, down 0.16%; CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,714 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of PTA internal market was 4,728 yuan per ton, up 0.21%; the external market was $620.00 per ton, down 0.16% [1] - CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,742 yuan per ton, up 0.39%; CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,902 yuan per ton, up 0.27% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,935 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; in South China was 6,010 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as DTY, POY, and short - fiber showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - On July 17, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.32%, down 0.66%; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 87.15%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.02%, down 1.10% [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 40.00%, down 2.00%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber was 53.00%, up 9.00%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips was 53.00%, down 10.00% [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal; Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Market Analysis - International crude oil prices showed an interval fluctuation. Although there was a short - term rebound, the supply - demand situation was weak. PTA will have new device put into production in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support [2] - The market is trading on the maintenance expectation of PTA under low processing fees. The downstream polyester operating rate is still higher than that of last year, and the spot basis has strengthened. However, due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season on the demand side, it is difficult to boost prices [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was stable at 5,900 - 6,000 yuan per ton. The supply side's quotations were mixed, with low operating rates but sufficient market supply. Downstream terminal buying enthusiasm was average, and market sentiment was cautious [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is currently facing weak demand and is mainly driven by cost fluctuations. PX is expected to oscillate, PTA is expected to oscillate, and PR is expected to oscillate. The future profitability of PX depends on unexpected factors, and the industry's fundamentals are moving towards weakness [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 16, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.21% and 0.28% respectively; the spot prices of naphtha, xylene, and p - xylene (PX) also declined, with xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea dropping by 1.74% [1]. - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price increased by 0.21%, while the near - month contract settlement price decreased by 0.30%. The domestic PTA spot price rose by 0.08%, and the CCFEI PTA outer - disk price index dropped by 2.05%. The near - far month spread decreased by 14 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 4 yuan/ton [1]. - **PX**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price increased by 0.42%, and the near - month contract closing price increased by 1.03%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged, and the PXN spread increased by 0.15%, while the PX - MX spread increased by 8.86%. The basis decreased by 28 yuan/ton [1]. - **PR**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price increased by 0.27%, and the near - month contract closing price increased by 0.07%. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets remained unchanged, and the basis in both markets decreased by 16 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of polyester products such as polyester DTY and POY remained unchanged, while the price indices of polyester FDY68D, FDY150D, short - fiber, and polyester chips decreased, with polyester FDY68D and FDY150D dropping by 0.73% [2]. Production and Sales Information - The operating rates of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, remained unchanged on July 16, 2025. The sales rates of polyester filament, short - fiber, and polyester chips increased by 6%, 3%, and 31% respectively [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - **International Crude Oil**: Macro - risks have declined, but the supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak, with inventory accumulation in both crude oil and refined oil, and the demand for gasoline during the summer travel season is fluctuating, putting pressure on oil prices [2]. - **PX**: The current inventory of PX is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. However, the supply side lacks positive factors, and with the off - season of polyester consumption and the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA processing fee has fallen below 200 yuan/ton. Although there are unplanned device maintenance, new device production expectations on the supply side and the off - season on the demand side make it difficult to boost prices. The polyester factory's actual maintenance in July has led to a significant decline in operating rates compared to June [2]. - **Market Situation**: The spot market lacks new major news, and the trading atmosphere is not strong. The spot basis has slightly increased recently. The polyester bottle - chip market is stable, with supply at a low level and downstream buying enthusiasm being average [2]. Trading Strategies - On July 16, 2025, the TA2509 contract of PTA closed at 4,706 yuan/ton (- 0.04%), with a trading volume of 559,100 lots; the PX2509 contract of PX closed at 6,716 yuan/ton (0%), with a trading volume of 144,100 lots; the 2509 contract of PR closed at 5,886 yuan/ton (- 0.07%), with a trading volume of 30,600 lots. The polyester industry chain is expected to oscillate, with PX, PTA, and PR all in an oscillatory state [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Weekly Summary**: PX and PTA both showed weak consolidation this week. For PX, after the impact of the emergency was digested, the support from the cost side weakened, and with insufficient supply - side positives and weakening downstream demand expectations, the market sentiment was bearish. For PTA, after the disappearance of cost - side drivers, the fundamentals could not sustain, and the supply - demand pattern deteriorated, with processing fees and spot basis dropping [9]. - **Market Forecast**: Crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate. PX supply will remain relatively stable with minor changes, and PX is expected to trade in the range of 6,500 - 6,850 yuan/ton. PTA supply will face pressure from new capacity, and it will likely trade in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton. The recommendation is to remain on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views 3.1.1 Weekly Summary - **PX**: After the shock of the emergency, the cost support from crude oil weakened. Although there are still some maintenance plans this month and social inventories are at a historical low, with insufficient supply - side positives and weakening downstream demand expectations, the overall market sentiment is bearish [9]. - **PTA**: After the disappearance of cost - side drivers, the fundamentals could not continue to drive the market. Polyester production cuts have led to a decline in operating rates, and new capacity on the supply side has put pressure on the supply - demand balance. Processing fees have fallen below 200 yuan/ton, and the spot basis has dropped rapidly [9]. 3.1.2 Market Forecast - **Crude Oil**: With obvious bottom support and weakening upper - end demand and continuous trade issues, crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate [10]. - **PX**: Chinese PX supply is relatively stable, with some minor adjustments in maintenance schedules. Asian PX supply will also remain generally stable. PX is expected to trade in the range of 6,500 - 6,850 yuan/ton [10]. - **PTA**: Newly commissioned capacity in East China will bring pressure to the supply side. PTA is expected to trade in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton [10]. - **Polyester**: Production cuts have been fully implemented, and there are no new cuts in the short term. The operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [10]. - **Weaving**: In the off - season, there is a lack of new orders, and the market shows no improvement [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Remain on the sidelines [10]. 3.2 Price Situation 3.2.1 PX - **Futures**: Prices fluctuated within a range, with the closing price of the main contract on July 11 at 6,694 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (0.33%) from July 4, and the settlement price at 6,720 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) [13][15]. - **Spot**: After a narrow - range increase, prices turned down. From July 7 - 11, the average basis of the main contract was 56 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price was 6,772 yuan/ton, down 128.2 yuan/ton (- 1.86%) from the previous period [16][18]. 3.2.2 PTA - **Futures**: With weakening demand, prices fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of the main contract on July 11 was 4,700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.21%) from July 4, and the settlement price was 4,710 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (- 0.59%) [20][22]. - **Spot**: Trading was mainly between traders, with sporadic replenishment by polyester factories. The average daily trading volume was around 2 - 3 million tons. From July 6 - 12, the average basis of the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, the average CIF price in the Chinese market was 607 US dollars/ton, down 23.8 US dollars/ton (- 3.92%) from the previous period, and the average spot price in the East China market was 4,761.6 yuan/ton, down 170.4 yuan/ton (- 3.46%) [23][25]. 3.3 Device Operation Conditions 3.3.1 PX Devices - **Domestic Changes**: Many domestic PX devices have different operating loads, such as Ningbo Daxie operating at 60% capacity, and some devices in Sheng Hong Refining & Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical operating at 85 - 90% capacity [30]. - **Asian Other Regions**: Some devices in Asian other regions have restarted or adjusted their operating rates, such as Pertamina in Indonesia restarting from a shutdown and some Japanese and Korean devices having maintenance or unexpected shutdowns [32][33]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate remained relatively stable, with 83.00% from July 1 - 7 and 83.13% from July 8 - 14 [34]. 3.3.2 PTA Devices - **Device Changes**: Some PTA devices such as Ningbo Taihua and Hainan Yisheng are under maintenance, and a new 3.2 - million - ton device in East China plans to put 1.6 - million - ton capacity into operation recently and another 1.6 - million - ton capacity in August [37]. - **Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate increased by 1.22% due to the resumption of some devices [38]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis 3.4.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: Investors are concerned about the results of the tariff negotiations between the US and key trading partners. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on July 14 was 66.98 US dollars/barrel, down 0.95 US dollars/barrel from July 7, and Brent crude oil's was 69.21 US dollars/barrel, down 0.37 US dollars/barrel. The weekly average prices of WTI and Brent crude oil increased by 0.77 US dollars/barrel and 1.13 US dollars/barrel respectively compared to last week [43][45][47]. - **Naphtha**: Demand in Asia, especially in China, is strong, with both supply and demand sides being robust. The average weekly price of CFR Japan naphtha is 591.40 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit is 27.23 US dollars/ton [50][52]. - **PX**: After the impact of oil prices weakened, PX prices remained stagnant. The average weekly price of CFR China Main Port was 846.6 US dollars/ton, down 0.28% from the previous week, and the average weekly price of FOB South Korea was 822.6 US dollars/ton, down 0.27% [55]. 3.4.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: Although there were unexpected situations with overseas devices, the impact on processing fees was limited. The weekly average of PXN was 253.79 yuan/ton, down 7.51% from the previous period, and the PX - MX margin rebounded after a decline, with a weekly average of 96.50 US dollars/ton [56][58]. - **PTA Processing Margin**: Profits have been compressed to below 200 yuan/ton. The average spot processing fee from July 8 - 14 was 177.66 yuan/ton, compared with 298.31 yuan/ton last week [59][61]. - **Inventory**: PTA has entered the inventory accumulation stage. As of July 11, the social inventory was 4.397 million tons, up 12,000 tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.95%. PTA factory inventory days decreased by 0.09 days, and polyester factory inventory days increased by 0.05 days [66][68]. 3.4.3 Demand - **Polyester Product Prices**: The prices of polyester products such as semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have declined. The average price of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5,969.00 yuan/ton, down 1.24% from the previous reporting period [74]. - **Market Demand**: The weakness of the market demand side is becoming more prominent. The average weekly polyester production and sales rate from July 8 - 14 was estimated at 50%. Polyester factory inventory has increased, and the weaving comprehensive operating rate has continued to decline [75][80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain fluctuated and declined following costs. The EG futures and spot prices decreased, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4322 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton, - 0.80% from the previous trading day) and the EG East China spot price at 4399 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton, - 0.14% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis was 68 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 54 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 47 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 55.3 tons (down 2.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 9.6 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main port is 4.5 tons, while the planned arrival at the secondary port is concentrated at 6.5 tons [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG production is expected to increase as the maintenance period has passed, and the load will gradually return to a high level in July. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart. On the demand side, it is expected to be weak due to high terminal inventory and low restocking willingness during the off - season. The short - term supply - demand structure is still good, but the inventory accumulation pressure will increase in late July [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the EG East China spot price and basis, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4322 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton, - 0.80% from the previous trading day) and the EG East China spot price at 4399 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton, - 0.14% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis at 68 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 54 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 47 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - Not elaborated in the given text, only mentioned in the directory [4] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Not elaborated in the given text, only mentioned in the directory [4] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 55.3 tons (down 2.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 9.6 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main port is 4.5 tons, while the planned arrival at the secondary port is concentrated at 6.5 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is currently facing a weakening fundamental situation. PX supply has no positive support, and with the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工. PTA has new device commissioning expectations and weak demand in the off - season, and its processing fee has fallen below 200 yuan/ton. The polyester bottle - sheet market has sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Products**: On July 15, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.69% and 0.72% respectively. The spot prices of naphtha, xylene, and PX also declined, with the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea dropping by 3.17% [1] - **PTA Products**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA contracts decreased, and the spot price of domestic PTA dropped by 0.36%. The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - plate decreased by 0.49%, while the outer - plate increased by 1.60%. The near - far month spread was 14 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 21 yuan/ton [1] - **PX Products**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX contracts decreased, and the spot price of domestic PX remained unchanged. The PXN spread decreased slightly by 0.16%, while the PX - MX spread increased by 8.84%. The basis increased by 90 yuan/ton [1] - **PR Products**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR contracts decreased, and the market prices of polyester bottle - sheet in the East China and South China markets declined. The basis in the East China and South China markets increased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream polyester products remained unchanged or decreased slightly, with the price index of polyester short - fiber dropping by 0.08% [2] Production and Sales Information - **Operating Rates**: On July 15, 2025, the operating rates of the PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - sheet factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged [1] - **Sales Ratios**: The sales ratios of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips decreased on July 15, 2025, with the sales ratio of polyester staple fiber dropping by 33 percentage points and that of polyester chips dropping by 112 percentage points [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 3.3 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Important News - **International Crude Oil**: Market expectations for the US statement on sanctions against Russia drove up oil prices, but due to the time window for negotiations, the risk of short - term supply disruption of Russian oil was limited, and oil prices fell after giving up gains. PTA will commission new devices in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing a solid bottom support [2] - **PX**: PX supply has no positive support, and with the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工. On July 15, the PX CFR China price was 838 US dollars/ton. Affected by the tariff issue, international oil prices fluctuated and declined, squeezing the cost momentum of PX. The domestic PX is still in the de - stocking cycle, and there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment in the market [2] - **PTA**: The decline in crude oil prices weakens the cost support for PTA. Except for some large polyester manufacturers purchasing PTA spot, the overall atmosphere is average. Currently, the PTA processing fee has fallen below the 200 - yuan/ton range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to the expected commissioning of new devices on the supply side and the off - season on the demand side [2] - **Polyester Bottle - Sheet**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - sheet in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle - sheet futures are running weakly, and the supply - side quotations of bottle - sheet are a mix of stability and decline. Recently, the supply - side operating rate of bottle - sheet has continued to operate at a low level, and the market supply is abundant. Downstream end - users' procurement maintains the rigid demand, and the market sentiment is cautious [2] Trading Strategy - PTA oscillated lower, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4696 yuan/ton (- 0.63%) and the daily trading volume of 1.01 million lots. PX prices returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6688 yuan/ton (- 0.89%) and the daily trading volume of 214,600 lots. PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5870 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) and the daily trading volume of 40,900 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain has returned to fundamental-driven, with weakening supply and demand expectations leading to a full - scale decline in prices. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain has tilted towards the raw material link again. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $68.45 per barrel, up 2.82%; Brent crude oil was $70.36 per barrel, up 2.51%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $584.25 per ton, down 1.14%. The spot price of isomeric xylene FOB South Korea was $719.50 per ton, down 0.96% [1]. - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,700 yuan per ton on July 11, 2025, down 0.89%; settlement price was 4,710 yuan per ton, down 0.38%. Domestic PTA spot price was 4,714 yuan per ton, down 0.67% [1]. - **PX**: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,694 yuan per ton on July 11, 2025, down 1.30%; settlement price was 6,720 yuan per ton, down 0.44%. Domestic PX spot price was 6,813 yuan per ton, up 0.19% [1]. - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,878 yuan per ton on July 11, 2025, down 0.64%; settlement price was 5,886 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,955 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream**: On July 11, 2025, CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, down 0.58%; polyester POY remained unchanged at 7,100 yuan per ton; polyester short - fiber was 6,655 yuan per ton, down 0.22% [2]. Production and Sales Information - On July 11, 2025, the production - sales ratio of polyester filament was 36%, down 15 percentage points; that of polyester staple fiber was 41%, down 21 percentage points; and that of polyester chips was 61%, down 10 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 5% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Market Analysis - PX price rose slightly and then fell this week. The absolute price on Friday decreased by 0.4% month - on - month to $837 per ton CFR. The weekly average price continued to shrink, down 1.2% month - on - month to $846 per ton CFR. Although there was an unplanned shutdown of individual PX devices during the week, the PX supply in Asia remained stable. In the current off - season of polyester consumption, after the sharp decline of PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream start - up [2]. - The PTA inventory is in a downward channel in absolute terms but at a high level in relative terms in the past five years, and the situation of near - term strength and long - term weakness is difficult to change. In July, polyester factories actually implemented maintenance, and the start - up rate decreased significantly compared with June [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,900 - 6,020 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The supply of bottle - chips has relatively sufficient market goods, and the downstream end - users have replenished their stocks at low prices recently, and the trading in the market may gradually fade [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,700 yuan per ton, down 0.59%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.17 million lots. PX price has returned to consolidation. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,694 yuan per ton, down 0.83%, with an intraday trading volume of 214,200 lots. PR follows the cost operation. The 2509 contract closed at 5,878 yuan per ton, down 0.31%, with an intraday trading volume of 45,900 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2].

王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/11 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/桶 | 66.57 | 68.38 | -2.65% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/桶 | 68.64 | 70.19 | -2.21% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/吨 | 591.00 | 598.25 | -1.21% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/7/10 | | 美元/吨 | 726.00 | 724.50 | 0.21% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/吨 | 852.00 | 849.67 | 0.27% | ...