| 供应 | PTA开工率维持73.2%（-0.5%）。英力士125万吨PTA装置降负运行，后续可能停车，周度产量144万吨左右。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 本周聚酯开工率维持 91.2%，三房巷、华润珠海等装置重启将推动下周负荷回升，恒力、恒逸高新装置计划月底重启；1-3 月负荷预测分别 | | | 为 89%、84%、91%，后期需关注长丝减产力度； 江浙地区织造终端下游需求持续走弱，内销因双十一后流量下滑订单叫停、外贸圣诞季暂未大批量下单，新增订单指数降至 34，坯布利润 | | | 压缩至保本线附近；下游库存加速累积（涤纶坯布库存 31.8 天）、开机率加速下滑（江浙综合开机 69%，萧绍圆机等降幅超 10%），部分 企业计划提前放年假，原料备货降至 4.5 天低位。 | | 观点 | 成本端PX供需偏紧，但聚酯开始累库、亏损，未来价格拐点或出现在聚酯大面积减产的关口。PTA产能总体过剩，加工费持续被压缩，英 力士装置再次降负荷，关注其对加工费的边际支撑，PTA向下积压聚酯利润，多PTA空PF/PR | | 估值 | 01合约加工费166元/吨（-50）。现货加工费185元/吨（+ ...

其中，PX期货价格创下自3月以来的阶段高点，PTA期货价格成功突破年内高点4900元/吨。在当前原油 和化工品市场整体表现偏弱的背景下，PX和PTA的价格表现引发市场关注。 最近两个交易日，聚酯品种表现较强。本周五，PX和PTA期货主力合约开盘后增仓上行，双双创下近3 个月以来的新高。 PX价格弹性更强 值得注意的是，在本轮上涨行情中，PX和PTA的价格表现存在明显差异，PX的价格弹性较PTA偏强。 强预期成为行情"发动机" 期货日报记者在采访中了解到，本轮上涨行情的核心驱动是市场对2026年聚酯产业链的乐观预期。 "从产能投放格局来看，2026年聚酯产业链分化将会比较明显。"中信建投期货能化高级分析师李思进表 示，PX环节计划新增产能约260万吨，且集中在明年三季度投放，产能增长约6.0%；而PTA环节则处于 投产真空期，全年无新增产能落地。值得注意的是，在"反内卷"政策背景下，供应端收缩可能在未来几 年成为常态，将会进一步优化产业供需结构。需求端，下游需求预计增长4.5%。 "在2026年三季度PX新产能集中释放之前，PX需求增速高于供应增速，预计PX存在供应缺口，成为聚 酯产业链中基本面最强的品种。"李 ...

最近两个交易日，聚酯品种表现较强。本周五，PX和PTA期货主力合约开盘后增仓上行，双双创下近3个月以来的新高。 库存方面，12月PTA维持去库态势，1至2月聚酯开工负荷大概率季节性下降，有小幅累库预期，但整体累库压力明显偏低，短期基本面的稳健表现为行情 提供了有力支撑。 PTA2605 ▲ TA2605 期货 主力 夜盛 2.03% 74.24万 4992 振幅 高 메레 4980 4822 117.3万 4894 持仓 俱 昨结 158 3.28% 4896 +87088 开 今结 日增 l 相关ETF 2 能源化工 ETF 1.215 0.75% > 日K 周K 月K 五日 分时 更多。 0 均线 ▼ 日线 MA5:4792 10:4745 20:4754 30:4749 筹码 5028 4992-> 4873 4718 4563 L7 -4444 2025/10/20 2025/11/20 2025/12/22 其中，PX期货价格创下自3月以来的阶段高点，PTA期货价格成功突破年内高点4900元/吨。在当前原油和化工品市场整体表现偏弱的背景下，PX和PTA的 价格表现引发市场关注。 强预期成为行情"发动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX price is strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite stable PTA device operation and consumption, PX cost is high and PTA profit is under pressure. However, integrated enterprises' economic benefits are improved. Polyester load is high, PTA consumption is high, and the market's willingness to buy domestic products increases. Although domestic demand weakens seasonally, polyester factories have low inventory and low willingness to cut production. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [2] - The price of ethylene glycol lacks effective support due to high port inventory and falling coal prices. New device production increases supply pressure, but increased polyester export inquiries are expected to support downstream demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - INE crude oil price rose from 426.7 yuan/barrel on December 17th to 429.4 yuan/barrel on December 18th, an increase of 2.7 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased from 1583.1 yuan/ton to 1627.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.38 yuan/ton. PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.5105 to 1.5216, an increase of 0.0110. CFR China PX increased from 834 to 840, an increase of 7. PX - naphtha spread increased from 298 to 307, an increase of 9 [2] - PTA main contract futures price rose from 4684 yuan/ton to 4748 yuan/ton, an increase of 64 yuan/ton. PTA spot price rose from 4605 yuan/ton to 4650 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee increased from 164.2 yuan/ton to 173.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.7 yuan/ton. Disk processing fee increased from 243.2 yuan/ton to 271.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.7 yuan/ton. Main contract basis increased from - 13 to - 11, an increase of 2. PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 134143 to 128925, a decrease of 5218 [2] - MEG main contract futures price rose from 3758 yuan/ton to 3767 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha increased from - 142.63 yuan/ton to - 141.82 yuan/ton. MEG domestic price remained at 3667 yuan/ton. Main contract basis increased from - 32 to - 25, an increase of 7 [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 86.48%. PTA start - up rate remained at 74.77%. MEG start - up rate remained at 60.43%. Polyester load remained at 88.41% [2] 3.3 Product Price and Cash Flow - POY150D/48F price decreased from 6285 to 6225, a decrease of 60. POY cash flow decreased from - 131 to - 229, a decrease of 98. FDY150D/96F price remained at 6525. FDY cash flow decreased from - 391 to - 429, a decrease of 38. DTY150D/48F price remained at 7685. DTY cash flow decreased from 69 to 31, a decrease of 38 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple price increased from 6340 to 6350, an increase of 10. Polyester staple cash flow decreased from 274 to 246, a decrease of 28 [2] - Semi - bright chip price increased from 5460 to 5465, an increase of 5. Chip cash flow decreased from - 56 to - 89, a decrease of 33 [2] 3.4 Sales Volume - Filament sales volume remained at 46%. Polyester staple sales volume remained at 76%. Chip sales volume remained at 116% [2] 3.5 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products soon. It stopped for maintenance around November 17th [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in crude oil prices led to a drop in PTA prices, but the spot buying sentiment was good, and the PTA inventory continued to decrease, causing the spot basis to rise [2]. - The gasoline crack spread declined, but the PX price remained strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite the lack of significant changes in fundamentals, PTA plants maintained high - load operation, and PX consumption remained stable [2]. - The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth, providing additional support to the polyester demand [2]. - The coal - based ethylene glycol plants' return and new plant commissioning increased market supply pressure, and with the continuous decline of coal prices, the ethylene glycol price was hard to get effective support [2]. - The increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to boost textile and clothing export demand, supporting the downstream weaving sector to maintain a high load [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 436.5 yuan/barrel on December 15, 2025, to 430.5 yuan/barrel on December 16, 2025, a decrease of 6.00 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC increased from 1455.9 yuan/ton to 1539.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 83.60 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.4590 to 1.4921, an increase of 0.0331 [2]. - CFR China PX price decreased from 833 to 827, a drop of 6 [2]. - PX - naphtha spread decreased from 284 to 281, a decrease of 3 [2]. - PTA主力期价 increased from 4628 yuan/ton to 4668 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.0 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA现货价格 decreased from 4620 to 4590, a decrease of 30.0 [2]. - PTA现货加工费 increased from 176.6 yuan/ton to 182.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.4 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA盘面加工费 increased from 184.6 yuan/ton to 260.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.4 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA仓单数量 decreased from 137993 to 136697, a decrease of 1296 [2]. - MEG主力期价 increased from 3651 yuan/ton to 3700 yuan/ton, an increase of 49.0 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG - naphtha decreased from (157.06) yuan/ton to (157.25) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 [2]. - MEG内盘 decreased from 3646 to 3634, a decrease of 12.0 [2]. - MEG主力基差 decreased from - 16 to - 27, a decrease of 11.0 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX开工率 remained at 86.48% [2]. - PTA开工率 remained at 74.77% [2]. - MEG开工率 remained at 60.66% [2]. - 聚酯负荷 remained at 88.41% [2]. 3.3 Product Price and Cash - Flow Changes - POY150D/48F price decreased from 6335 to 6300, a decrease of 35.0 [2]. - POY现金流 decreased from (87) to (92), a decrease of 5.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F price remained at 6555 [2]. - FDY现金流 increased from (367) to (337), an increase of 30.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F price remained at 7690 [2]. - DTY现金流 increased from 68 to 98, an increase of 30.0 [2]. - 长丝产销 increased from 44% to 67%, an increase of 23% [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 price remained at 6325 [2]. - 涤短现金流 increased from 253 to 283, an increase of 30.0 [2]. - 短纤产销 decreased from 67% to 42%, a decrease of 25% [2]. - 半光切片 price decreased from 5495 to 5475, a decrease of 20.0 [2]. - 切片现金流 increased from (27) to (17), an increase of 10.0 [2]. - 切片产销 increased from 59% to 67%, an increase of 8% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon, which was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, PX's new capacity pressure is expected to gradually emerge in the second half of the third quarter. PTA is in a production hiatus, and PX is expected to remain strong in the industrial chain. PTA may have a recovery expectation after its processing fee hits a recent low. The supply - demand pressure for the whole year is not significant. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA processing fee to recover and the opportunity for the spread between TA - EG to widen on dips [1][163]. - In 2026, ethylene glycol (MEG) faces significant production pressure. Potential capacity and high overseas supply pose risks to the market. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of MEG is weaker than that of PTA. Pay attention to the spread changes [1][163]. - In 2026, due to the continued slowdown of global economic growth, domestic demand is weak and requires more policy support. Exports may continue to be mainly for rigid demand. Despite the pressure on terminal exports, polyester segment exports are still worth looking forward to. The polyester segment will continue to grow steadily. The supply - demand pressure in the staple fiber market is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to protect processing fees at high prices. The new supply pressure of bottle chips in 2026 is not large, but the capacity of existing devices is still high. Overall profit may have an improvement expectation, but the recovery space may not be optimistic [2][164]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **PTA**: In 2025, PTA reached a high of around 5300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The market price declined due to seasonal inventory accumulation and tariff increases. The new device put into operation in the second half of the year put pressure on the market, and the main contract price fluctuated widely between 4400 - 5000 yuan/ton. Three new devices were put into operation, with a net capacity growth rate of 7.1%, and the cumulative output was expected to be 7390 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.8% [19][23]. - **MEG**: In 2025, the futures price of ethylene glycol showed a phased downward trend. Three new devices with a total of 170 tons were put into operation, with a net capacity growth rate of 3.7%. The cumulative output was expected to be 2080 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% [23]. - **Polyester and Terminal**: In 2025, the domestic sales growth of textile and apparel was slow. Exports were volatile, with a significant decline in exports to the US. The polyester segment had good production but poor profits due to raw materials and demand. The cumulative new capacity of polyester in the whole year was expected to be 446 tons, and the cumulative output from January to December was expected to be 7990 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 6.8% [24]. 2. PTA: More Maintenance under Low Processing Fees, with Expectation of Supply - Demand Improvement - **Raw Material End**: From 2024 - 2025, there was no new PX production capacity. The average operating rate in 2025 was 82.8%, and the estimated output was 3.84 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In 2026, new production capacity is mainly planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year, and PX is expected to remain strong in the industrial chain [30][37]. - **Processing Fee**: In 2025, the average spot processing fee of PTA was only 262 yuan/ton, the lowest in recent years. In the second half of the year, the processing fee fell below 200 yuan/ton, leading to more maintenance [39][45]. - **Export**: In 2025, from January to October, China's PTA exports totaled 3.096 million tons. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial to exports, but the future new production capacity in India may affect exports [45]. - **2026 Outlook**: There is no new PTA production plan in 2026. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA processing fees to recover [47]. 3. MEG: Supply Pressure is Prominent - **Actual Supply Increase**: In 2025, the price of ethylene glycol dropped significantly twice, and the end - of - year futures price hit a five - year low. The actual output increased significantly. The proportion of naphtha - based MEG is still about half, and the proportion of coal - based ethylene glycol is about 36% [50]. - **Cash Flow and Operating Rate**: In 2025, the average cash flow of naphtha - based MEG was - 120 US dollars/ton. The overall domestic ethylene glycol operating rate was 70.6%. The coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate was relatively high, and the profit situation improved significantly [64][65]. - **Inventory and Import**: In 2025, the main port inventory first increased and then decreased, and then increased again at the end of the year. From January to October, the import volume was 6.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. The overseas supply is generally abundant, and imports are expected to remain at a relatively high level [70]. - **Future New Production**: From 2026, the planned production capacity of ethylene glycol will increase again. The future supply - demand pattern is weaker than that of PTA. Pay attention to the spread between PTA - MEG [72][73]. 4. Demand: Polyester Shows Resilience, Pay Attention to Policy Changes in the Terminal - **Polyester Growth**: In 2025, it is expected that a total of 4.46 million tons of new polyester production capacity will be put into operation. The average operating load for the whole year reached 90%. The expected output for the whole year was about 79.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. In 2026, the planned new polyester production capacity is 5 - 6 million tons, and the output is still expected to reach about 85 million tons [86][100]. - **Staple Fiber**: In 2025, the effective production capacity of direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased by about 4%, and the output increased by 10.1%. The inventory decreased to a low level, and the average operating rate was 91%. In 2026, the supply - demand pressure in the staple fiber market is expected to increase. Pay attention to the opportunity to protect processing fees at high prices [106][122]. - **Bottle Chips**: In 2025, the new production scale of bottle chips narrowed, and the average spot processing fee dropped to a record low of 386 yuan/ton. The inventory pressure was transferred in the third quarter, and the inventory accumulation slowed down in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the new supply pressure is not large, and the profit may improve, but the recovery space may not be optimistic [125][134]. - **Terminal Market**: In 2025, the domestic demand for textile and apparel improved moderately, and exports were affected by international trade. In 2026, domestic demand is weak and requires policy support, and exports may be mainly for rigid demand. Polyester segment exports are still worth looking forward to [141][162]. 5. 2026 Market Outlook and Strategies - **PTA**: In 2026, PX's new capacity pressure is expected to gradually emerge in the second half of the third quarter. PTA may see its processing fee recover, and the supply - demand pressure for the whole year is not significant. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA processing fee to recover and the opportunity for the spread between TA - EG to widen on dips [1][163]. - **MEG**: In 2026, the production pressure of ethylene glycol is large. The inventory may continue to rise at the beginning of the year, improve in the second quarter, and enter the inventory accumulation cycle again in the third and fourth quarters. The supply - demand pattern is weaker than that of PTA. Pay attention to the spread changes [1][163]. - **Polyester and Terminal**: In 2026, domestic demand is weak and requires policy support. Exports may be mainly for rigid demand. The polyester segment will continue to grow steadily. The supply - demand pressure in the staple fiber market is expected to increase, and the profit of bottle chips may improve, but the recovery space may not be optimistic [2][164].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the polyester industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the polyester industry chain was affected by factors such as macro - sentiment fluctuations, tariff conflicts, cost oscillations, device changes, and weak demand, leading to intensified price fluctuations and a further downward shift in the price center, hitting a historical low since 2007 [2][21]. - In 2026, the cost is expected to maintain relatively weak wide - range fluctuations. The oversupply of crude oil will put further downward pressure on oil prices, with Brent crude oil mainly fluctuating in the range of $50 - 75 per barrel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - The price of the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly in 2025, showing different trends in each quarter due to various factors such as cost, tariffs, and device maintenance. For example, in the first quarter, it showed a trend of rising first and then falling; in the second quarter, it was affected by tariffs and device maintenance, showing a deep V - shaped trend [21][22][23]. 3.2 Crude Oil: Supply Surplus and Price Pressure - In 2025, crude oil prices continued to decline under the pressure of continuous production increase, but were also affected by US tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, resulting in sharp price fluctuations. Brent crude oil fell below $59 per barrel, and WTI crude oil fell below $56 per barrel, both hitting new lows since February 2021 [29]. - In 2026, crude oil demand is expected to grow slowly, and supply growth will slow down, but there will still be an oversupply situation, and oil prices will continue to be under pressure. It is expected that Brent crude oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of $50 - 75 per barrel [34]. 3.3 PX: Capacity Increase and Supply - Demand Expected to Be Tight First and Then Loose - **Market Review**: In 2025, PX prices were affected by multiple factors and fluctuated widely, with the price center shifting downwards. In the first half of the year, prices declined, and in the second half, they showed a relatively strong performance, and the PX - Nap spread strengthened [45]. - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of PX is expected to be relatively weak. Naphtha supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose, and the cracking spread is expected to decline to the range of $50 - 100 per ton. The supply - demand of MX is also expected to be loose, and the PX - MX spread will remain at a relatively strong level above $80 per ton [58][66]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PX capacity expansion is coming to an end. In 2026, the supply - demand structure is expected to be tight first and then loose. The supply - demand will be relatively tight in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter during the maintenance season, and the PX - Nap spread is expected to widen [79][114]. - **Price Forecast and Operation Suggestions**: PX prices are expected to be relatively strong, especially in the second quarter, but the absolute price will still be restricted by cost. The main price fluctuation range is 5400 - 7700 yuan per ton. It is recommended to buy on dips and seize short - selling opportunities. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the basis, with a target of 300 - 600 yuan per ton, and go long on the PX05 - 09 spread, with a target of 100 - 200 yuan per ton [116]. 3.4 PTA: Stable Supply and Increasing Demand, Supply - Demand Structure to Improve - **Market Review**: In 2025, PTA prices fluctuated widely, with the price center shifting downwards. The market was affected by factors such as trade conflicts, cost fluctuations, and anti - involution [127]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In 2026, there is no new PTA capacity plan, but downstream polyester capacity will continue to expand, which will improve the PTA supply - demand structure. The processing fee is expected to rise to the range of 300 - 500 yuan per ton, and the operating rate is expected to increase to the range of 80% - 90% [137][144]. - **Price Forecast and Operation Suggestions**: PTA prices will still follow cost fluctuations. The main price fluctuation range is 3800 - 5600 yuan per ton. It is recommended to buy high and sell low according to cost trends and seasonal laws. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the basis and seize opportunities to go long on the PTA05 - 09 spread [186]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol: Capacity Continues to Increase, Price Still Under Pressure - **Market Review**: In 2025, ethylene glycol prices continued to decline, hitting a new low in nearly five years. In the first half of the year, it showed a good supply - demand structure, but in the second half, the price was under pressure due to factors such as increased supply and weak cost [195]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2026, ethylene glycol supply and demand will both increase, but the supply will be relatively loose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 4500 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short on rallies and seize short - term long - buying opportunities [256]. - **Arbitrage Suggestions**: It is recommended to short the basis on rallies and seize opportunities to go long on the ethylene glycol 05 - 09 spread [248]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber: Capacity Expansion, Supply - Demand Weakening - **Market Review**: In 2025, polyester staple fiber prices were affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and cost decline, with the absolute price declining, but the processing fee remained stable around the break - even point [266]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In 2026, the supply and demand of polyester staple fiber will both increase, but the supply increase will be greater than the demand increase, which will put pressure on the processing fee. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 5800 - 6800 yuan per ton [331]. - **Operation and Arbitrage Suggestions**: It is recommended to mainly short according to the cost, and try to go long from August to September according to the seasonal law. For arbitrage, pay attention to fundamental changes and seize opportunities to go long on the basis and the PF05 - 09 spread [331]. 3.7 Polyester Bottle Chips: Continued Capacity Expansion, Profit Still Under Pressure - **Market Review**: In 2025, polyester bottle chip prices were affected by factors such as capacity expansion and cost fluctuations, with the price center shifting downwards, and the processing fee was at a low level [338]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2026, the supply of polyester bottle chips is expected to increase, and the demand will increase steadily. The supply - demand will maintain a dynamic wide - balance, which will still strongly suppress the processing fee. The price is expected to be strong first and then weak, with the main fluctuation range of 5200 - 6400 yuan per ton [382]. - **Operation and Arbitrage Suggestions**: It is recommended to short on rallies and seize short - term long - buying opportunities according to seasonal laws, cost trends, and device maintenance dynamics. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the basis on rallies and pay attention to opportunities to short the PR03/05 spread [382]. 3.8 Polyester Industry Chain - Related Stocks As of December 12, different stocks in the polyester industry chain showed different trends. For example, the stock price of PetroChina increased by 8.67%, while the stock price of Sinopec decreased by 11.89% [383].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PX market has limited upside potential. Although the supply is tight before the holiday, the demand is weakening, and the polyester start - up decline may bring negative feedback. The PXN is expanding, but the valuation support from the blending oil logic is weakening [3]. - The PTA market also has limited upside potential. The cost - end PX supply is tight, but the polyester industry is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, which may lead to a negative feedback in the industrial chain. The PTA processing fee is continuously compressed [5]. - For MEG, it is at a low - valuation level, and short - selling is not recommended. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and it is advisable to operate in the range [8]. 3. Summary by Directory PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The PX futures forward curve shows a forward decline, and attention should be paid to the 01 - contract warehouse receipt pressure. The supply is tight, the near - end is strengthening, and the PXN is rising. The gasoline cracking spread is falling, which is negative for the blending oil market. The aromatics blending oil economy is weakening [20][26][31]. - The PX - MX spread has soared, and the Asian MX blending oil economy has significantly declined, while the overseas MX isomerization economy has increased [47][49]. - **Supply and Inventory** - The domestic PX start - up rate is at a historical high, with a weekly output of 740,000 tons. The Asian start - up rate is 78.6% (- 0.1%). There are expectations of supply contraction in the future, such as the Zhejiang Petrochemical's CDU maintenance in January [61]. - In October, the PX import volume was 830,000 tons. The import from South Korea has increased, while that from Saudi Arabia has been low [63][65]. - In November, the PX monthly inventory in Longzhong accumulated 50,000 tons to 4.07 million tons [84]. PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The PTA basis and monthly spread have rebounded at a low level driven by raw materials, but the spot supply is still in surplus. The processing fee has been at a low level for a long time [90][100]. - **Supply and Inventory** - The PTA start - up rate remains at 73.7%, with a weekly output of about 1.44 million tons. In 2025, from January to October, the cumulative PTA output was 60.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [101][102]. - In October, the PTA export volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory holding willingness is low, and the warehouse receipt volume is continuously increasing [104][120]. MEG - **Valuation and Profit** - The MEG monthly spread has declined, the basis has weakened, and the unilateral price has reached a new low. The relative valuation has been continuously decreasing, and the profit of various production processes is in a loss state [133][137][140]. - **Supply and Inventory** - The MEG start - up rate is 70% (- 3%), and the weekly domestic supply is about 400,000 tons. Many coal - chemical and ethylene - based MEG plants have reduced their loads due to low profits [141][142]. - In October, the MEG import volume was 650,000 tons, and in November, it was over 720,000 tons. The overseas inventory is high, and the arrival volume remains at a high level, leading to a continuous increase in port inventory [143][152]. Polyester Segment - **Start - up** - The polyester start - up rate is 91.2% (- 0.6%), maintaining a high level. The start - up rate is expected to be 91% in December, 89% in January, and 84% in February [156][159]. - **Inventory** - The downstream sales are sluggish seasonally, and the inventory has begun to rise. The filament (POY/FDY) equity inventory is about half a month, the short - fiber inventory is at a low level both this year and in the same period of history, and the bottle - chip inventory has slightly increased [166][172]. - **Export** - From January to October, the total polyester export volume was 12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The export of various polyester products has also increased to different extents [173][176]. - **Profit** - The texturing profit is acceptable, but the FDY loss has expanded, and the POY is at the break - even point, which may affect the filament start - up enthusiasm [177]. Terminal (Weaving and Apparel) - **Demand and Start - up** - The overall demand is weakening. The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 67% (- 2%), and the start - up rate of texturing machines is 83% (- 2%) [198]. - **Inventory and Sales** - The domestic demand orders have declined month - on - month, and the de - stocking speed of grey fabric inventory has slowed down. The new order atmosphere is weak, the shipment situation has deteriorated, and the fabric price has declined locally [201][202]. - **Retail and Export** - From January to October, the retail sales of Chinese clothing, footwear, and textiles were 106.127 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The cumulative export from January to October was 126.2 billion US dollars, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [203][209]. - Overseas, the clothing retail data in the US and Europe have risen strongly, while the overseas textile and clothing inventory has slightly declined month - on - month [213][219].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ continued to increase production in 2025, leading to an oversupply of crude oil and a downward pressure on international oil prices. Although production increase will be suspended in Q1 2026, there is still a possibility of resuming production increase later, and the decline in oil prices in 2026 is expected to narrow [5][11]. - The growth rate of production capacity and output of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol in the polyester industry chain has slowed down, while demand will continue to show a slight growth trend, and the supply - demand relationship will improve. The low - price and low - profit operation situation of the industry will change, and the price center is expected to move up [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - **PX**: In 2025, PX production decreased from February to April due to many device overhauls. From August to November, the operating rate was stable, and the cumulative production decline narrowed. The cumulative import volume increased slightly in the first 11 months. The supply - demand situation was good, with inventory decreasing from February to July and slightly increasing from August to September. The price fluctuated, with a cumulative decline of 1.5% as of early December [18][20]. - **PTA**: Three new PTA devices were put into operation from June to October, with a total capacity of 8.4 million tons/year. The average operating rate in the first 11 months decreased by 4.2 percentage points compared with last year, and the production growth rate was not high. The demand was good, especially from October to November. The social inventory decreased significantly, and the price showed a wide - range shock pattern, with a cumulative decline of about 4.5% as of December 11 [22][24]. - **MEG**: Three new ethylene glycol devices were put into operation in 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 5.3%. The supply growth was mainly due to the increase in the operating rate. The inventory showed a process of de - stocking and re - stocking. The price showed a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of more than 20% [27][30]. - **Short Fiber**: There was no new device put into operation in 2025, and the production increased slightly compared with last year. The export growth rate was high, but the domestic consumption demand was weak. The price showed a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of about 8% [32][34]. - **Bottle Chip**: The capacity expansion of bottle chips entered the end in 2025. Although the capacity growth rate slowed down, there was still a large supply pressure. The operating rate continued to decline, but the production increased by 6.7% in the first 11 months. The price showed a decline of 7 - 8%, and the profit was still poor [35][37]. II. Pay Attention to OPEC+'s Production Policy: Loose Crude Oil Supply is Hard to Resolve - **Suspension of Production Increase in Q1, Possible Resumption Later**: OPEC+ started to increase production from April 2025, with a cumulative increase of 2.877 million barrels/day. It decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026, but there is a possibility of resuming production increase in 2026. The three major institutions have continuously raised the global crude oil supply forecast, while the demand forecast is relatively stable, resulting in a loose supply situation [39][41]. - **The Expected Production Increase May Materialize, Still Having a Bearish Impact on Oil Prices**: The global crude oil supply is expected to be in a state of oversupply. Although the supply - demand imbalance is not obvious in the US crude oil data for now, it is expected to be reflected in the inventory data in 2026. The US oil and gas rig count decreased in 2025, but it did not have a significant impact on production. The international oil price was under pressure in 2025, and it is expected to be relatively strong in Q1 2026 but may be suppressed if production increase resumes [44][56]. III. Some Links in the Industry Chain Enter the Production Vacuum Period, and the Supply Growth Rate Will Significantly Decline - **Overall Slowdown in Capacity Growth Rate, Operating Rate Becoming the Key Factor Affecting Supply**: In 2025, there was no new PX device, and three new PTA devices and three new ethylene glycol devices were put into operation. In 2026, the new PX devices are expected to have limited supply increments due to late commissioning. There is no PTA new device plan in 2026, and the supply pressure will be reduced. The PX operating rate has little room for improvement, while the PTA operating rate has the potential to increase [57][66]. - **Ethylene Glycol New Devices are Planned to be Put into Operation Late, and the Supply Growth Rate is Expected to Decline**: In 2025, the ethylene glycol capacity increased by 5.3%. In 2026, there are many new device plans, but most of them are planned to be put into operation at the end of the year, with a possible delay. The ethylene glycol operating rate increased in 2025, but the absolute value is not high. It is expected that the supply growth rate will decline in 2026 [72][81]. IV. Demand is Rising Steadily, and the Adverse Factors Affecting Demand are Weakening - **Steady Growth of Polyester Capacity, Good Demand Supporting High Operating Rate**: In 2025, the polyester capacity increased by 5.5%, and the operating rate increased by 1.5 percentage points. The production increased by 7.6% in the first 11 months. It is expected that the polyester capacity will continue to grow moderately in 2026, but the growth rate will slow down [82][86]. - **Polyester Raw Material Inventory Shows Seasonal Fluctuations, and Ethylene Glycol Inventory Rises Rapidly**: The PTA inventory increased in the first quarter of 2025 and then decreased. In 2026, the supply growth mainly depends on the increase in the operating rate. The ethylene glycol inventory decreased from March to August and then increased rapidly from October to November. In 2026, the supply growth rate is expected to decline, and the supply - demand situation will improve [90][93]. - **Profit Redistribution Will Still Occur, and the Industrial Chain Profits May Transfer to the Middle and Upper Reaches**: In 2025, the production profits of PTA and bottle chips were poor, while those of long - fiber and short - fiber were acceptable. In 2026, the short - fiber and bottle - chip capacities will increase, which will have a bearish impact on processing fees, but the bottle - chip production profit is expected to improve slightly [94][98]. - **The Base of Polyester Exports is High, and the Pressure for Further Growth Increases**: In 2025, the exports of major polyester products increased year - on - year, with bottle chips having the largest export volume increase and short fibers having the highest export growth rate. The export destinations are relatively scattered. In 2026, the long - fiber may face inventory pressure, while the short - fiber inventory pressure is not large [99][109]. - **Industrial Demand is Boosted, and the Downstream Operating Indicators Will Increase**: The average operating rate of pure polyester yarn is basically the same as last year, while that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has decreased. With the growth of demand and the slowdown of capacity growth, the operating rate and production efficiency of the industry are expected to improve [110]. V. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Keeps Growing, and the Export Market is Expected to Recover - **The Growth Rate of Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel is Not High, and it Will Maintain a Low - Growth Trend**: In 2025, the growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales was low, and the growth rate of textile and apparel consumption was also low in the first half of the year but rebounded in the second half. The domestic textile and apparel consumption is expected to maintain a growth momentum [115][119]. - **The Easing of Global Economic and Trade Relations is Conducive to the Recovery of Textile and Apparel Exports**: In 2025, China's exports maintained positive growth despite the severe external environment. The textile and apparel exports decreased year - on - year, but it is expected to recover in 2026 [120][123]. VI. Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In 2025, the continuous production increase of OPEC+ led to an oversupply of crude oil and a downward trend in oil prices. The prices of the polyester industry chain were affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, with PX and PTA performing better than oil, and ethylene glycol being the weakest. The industrial chain profits were generally low, with PTA and bottle chips having poor profits [125][128]. - **Outlook**: In Q1 2026, the international oil price is expected to strengthen, but there is still pressure from production increase later. The supply - demand situation of the polyester industry chain will gradually improve, with supply growth pressure easing and demand growing steadily. The industrial chain profits are expected to transfer from the downstream to PTA and PX, and the price center is expected to move up [129][131].

化工日报 | 2025-12-12 交割预期下PX月差走强 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，Brent油价维持60~65美元/桶运行，聚焦于俄乌和谈进展，此外委内瑞拉局势也传递出不确定性。市场情 绪观望，油价维持震荡拉锯节奏。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN273美元/吨(环比变动+3.50美元/吨）。PX装置平稳运行。在明年上半年的良好预期下， 周内PXN走扩至286美元/吨。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效 维持。聚酯开工支撑下PXN有支撑，但远期预期下估值当前已处于季节性中高位水平。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -21元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+4元/吨），PTA现货加工费183元/吨（环比变动+14元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费274元/吨（环比变动+14元/吨），近端检修计划较多，且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求，聚酯 负荷支撑下，PTA小幅去库，基差反弹。中长期集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.8%（环比+0.3%），近期织造负荷有所下滑，11月底后内贸订单开始加速转弱，坯布库存 也开始加速累积，预计12月 ...