1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment is weak due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, increased risks of employment decline and inflation rise, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is heating up, causing oil prices to fluctuate at a high level. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PR in the polyester industry chain are all expected to show a volatile trend. The supply and demand of each product have different changes, and their prices are greatly affected by oil prices and the macro - situation [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX&PTA**: PX and PTA have both supply and demand decreasing. PX has some device maintenance and production plans adjustment, and PTA's processing fee is compressed. The price is affected by oil prices and the macro - situation, with a trading strategy of unilateral oscillation, and arbitrage and options on the sidelines [8]. - **MEG**: Supply decreases and demand increases this week, and the supply is expected to increase in the future. The port inventory is low, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillation, and arbitrage and options on the sidelines [8]. - **PF**: Short - fiber factory inventory decreases, and the processing fee strengthens slightly. The downstream is in a loss state, and the price follows the raw material trend. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillation, and arbitrage and options on the sidelines [8]. - **PR**: The market trading atmosphere is dull, the factory starts to decline, and the processing fee strengthens slightly. The supply is still relatively abundant, and the demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillation, and arbitrage and options on the sidelines [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester - The polyester production and sales are weak this week, the start - up rate decreases, and the processing fee strengthens slightly. The traditional peak season has limited order volume, and the inventory reduction is slow. Different polyester products have different profit situations [11]. 3.2.2 PX - The spot floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX continue to weaken. The start - up rate is still at a high level, and the profit of long - and short - process devices is slightly compressed [29][31][36]. 3.2.3 PTA - PTA has both supply and demand decreasing, and the processing fee is further compressed. The start - up rate is expected to rise first and then fall due to device maintenance and production plans [38][40]. 3.2.4 MEG - The basis and monthly spread of MEG weaken. The supply is expected to increase due to device maintenance restarts and new device commissions, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [42][43][51]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 PX - **Price**: It shows the price trends of PX and related products in the industrial chain [55]. - **Variety Spread & Profit**: It presents the spreads and profits between PX and other varieties [60]. - **Disproportionation and Oil - Blending Spread & Profit**: It shows the spreads and profits related to PX disproportionation and oil - blending [64]. - **Regional Spread & Profit**: It shows the spreads and profits between different regions of PX [66][67]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the supply and demand situation of PX, including load and start - up rate [71]. 3.3.2 PTA - **Price**: It shows the price trends of PTA and related products, as well as basis and monthly spreads [73][76]. - **Profit**: It shows the profit situation of PTA under different raw material bases [78]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the load and start - up rate of PTA and polyester [82]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory situation of PTA in different links [84]. 3.3.3 MEG - **Price**: It shows the price trends of MEG and related raw materials [86]. - **Spread**: It shows various spreads of MEG, including internal - external spreads and regional spreads [88]. - **Profit**: It shows the profit situation of MEG under different production processes [97]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the load and start - up rate of MEG and the inventory situation in the main port [103][105]. 3.3.4 Polyester - **Profit**: It shows the profit situation of different polyester products [108]. - **Supply**: It shows the load of different polyester products [110]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory situation of different polyester products [112]. - **Demand**: It shows the demand situation of polyester from different aspects such as downstream start - up rates, export data, and domestic consumption data [115][124][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX, last week, PXN oscillated downward. The main reasons were the postponement of PX maintenance plans, numerous unexpected maintenance of downstream PTA under low processing fees, and the delay of new device commissioning. The overall load was low, making it difficult for PX to reduce inventory. With weak terminal performance, PXN lacked the momentum to expand. Currently, PX load remains high, while downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. The expected delay of new PTA device commissioning and PX maintenance is expected to continue the PX inventory accumulation cycle. The valuation is currently at a moderately low level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [11]. - Regarding PTA, last week, PXN continued to be weak, PTA processing fees rebounded, and the overall price slightly decreased. The valuation was slightly repaired, but the upward space was relatively limited. On one hand, the terminal performance continued to be weaker than expected. On the other hand, even though PTA continued to reduce inventory through maintenance, the long - term outlook was still weak under the commissioning pressure. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side remains high, and the inventory reduction pattern will continue. However, due to the weak long - term pattern, the processing fee space is limited. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester and chemical fiber are low, and the load is expected to remain high. But the weak terminal performance exerts pressure on raw materials. In terms of valuation, PXN is continuously affected by the weak terminal performance and the continuous unexpected maintenance of PTA under low processing fees. The upward valuation needs to be driven by the improvement of the terminal or the maintenance of raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - Concerning MEG, the industrial fundamentals show that the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, and the domestic supply is high. But in the short term, due to the low port arrival volume, the port inventory is expected to be low. In the medium term, as imports arrive in a concentrated manner and the domestic load is expected to remain high, coupled with the gradual commissioning of new devices, the inventory will increase in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies under the weak outlook, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation may not be realized [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: The price decreased last week. The 11 - contract dropped by 118 yuan to 6594 yuan, and the spot CFR China price fell by 16 dollars to 816 dollars. The supply load decreased slightly, with the Chinese load at 86.3% (down 1.5% month - on - month) and the Asian load at 78.2% (down 0.8% month - on - month). The demand side saw a PTA load of 75.9% (down 0.9% month - on - month). Inventory is expected to accumulate. The PXN decreased to 227 dollars, and the naphtha crack spread fell to 108 dollars. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PTA**: The price slightly declined. The 01 - contract dropped by 44 yuan to 4604 yuan. The supply load was 75.9% (down 0.9% month - on - month). The demand side had a polyester load of 91.4% (down 0.2% month - on - month). Inventory slightly increased, and the processing fee rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **MEG**: The price dropped. The 01 - contract fell by 15 yuan to 4257 yuan. The supply load was 73.8% (down 1.1% month - on - month). The demand side had a polyester load of 91.4% (down 0.2% month - on - month). Port inventory is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term and increase in the medium term. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis oscillated, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume increased [32][35]. - **PTA**: The basis declined, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at a low level [43][46]. - **MEG**: The basis decreased, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at a low level [54][62]. - **Overseas Commodity Prices**: Data on overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China were presented [71]. 3.3. p - Xylene Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacity is expected to be added in 2025. The Chinese and Asian operating rates showed certain trends [76][78]. - **Import**: The import volume in July remained stable [82]. - **Inventory**: The inventory continued to decline in July [93]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN weakened, the short - process spread was relatively strong, and the naphtha crack spread oscillated upward [97]. - **Aromatic Blending Oil**: The gasoline performance was weak, and there were various indicators and trends in aromatic blending oil [104]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacity has been added in 2024 and 2025. The load showed certain fluctuations [137][140]. - **Export**: The export volume rebounded in July [142]. - **Inventory**: The inventory remained at a low level [144]. - **Profit and Valuation**: The processing fee was slightly repaired [147]. 3.5. Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacity is expected to be added in 2024 and 2025. The operating rate was relatively high, and the load of syngas - based devices was at a historical high [151][154]. - **Import**: The import volume slightly declined in July, and there was no import from the US [156]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory slightly increased this week [157]. - **Cost**: Coal prices rebounded, and ethylene prices slightly increased [167]. - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based MEG was relatively high [170]. 3.6. Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester**: New capacity of polyester filament was put into production. The basis of staple fiber and bottle chips oscillated. The operating rate slightly decreased. The inventory pressure of filament was moderate. The profit of filament was neutral, and the profit of bottle chips and staple fiber remained stable [184][187][190]. - **Terminal**: The operating rate remained stable. Orders remained stable, inventory decreased, and raw material stocking decreased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing recovered, while exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally [211][219][223].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is affected by the decline in crude oil prices, weakening cost support. With the restart of domestic PTA devices, PTA output is rising, and the basis is rapidly declining. The OPEC+ meeting increased oil production again. Downstream profits have significantly recovered, and the polyester operating load has rebounded to 91%. [2] - The ethylene glycol basis is weakening. The upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's ethylene glycol device is putting pressure on the market. Although the arrival of overseas ethylene glycol devices has decreased, the hedging volume has increased after the price recovery. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has rebounded. [2] Summary by Directory Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 489.2 yuan/barrel on September 11, 2025, to 475.3 yuan/barrel on September 12, 2025, a decrease of 13.9 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 decreased from 4688 yuan/ton to 4648 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped from 4620 yuan/ton to 4575 yuan/ton. The spot and disk processing fees also decreased. The PTA - SC price difference increased by 61.01 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0270 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4302 yuan/ton to 4272 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha price difference decreased by 4.2 yuan/ton. The MEG internal market price dropped from 4414 yuan/ton to 4386 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price decreased from 838 to 832, and the PX - naphtha price difference decreased by 1 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: The prices and cash flows of most polyester products showed certain changes, and the sales rates of long - silk, short - fiber, and slices all decreased [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The operating rate increased from 83.71% to 87.16%, an increase of 3.45% [2]. - **PTA**: The operating rate remained at 78.25% [2]. - **MEG**: The operating rate remained at 60.88% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load remained at 88.25% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East China 2.5 - million - ton PTA device restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA is expected to continue its weak oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Although the cost side provides some support and there is a mild recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, with an expected increase in domestic supply, the balance sheet may shift from destocking to stockpiling. Also, the processing fee is at a low level [6]. - MEG is expected to operate weakly in the short - term. It is in a destocking cycle, but the total supply is expected to increase due to new device commissioning, and the demand side shows a slow increase in polyester load. Attention should be paid to the lower support level [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Market Review**: Geopolitical instability supports oil prices, but OPEC+ may increase production in October, and demand has a seasonal decline. Thus, international oil prices are expected to face pressure next week. PX supply - demand is weak due to the previous unexpected shutdown of downstream PTA devices. As of September 12, the Asian PX closing price was $831.33 per ton CFR China, up $1.33 per ton from September 5 [16]. - **PX Capacity Utilization**: There was no device change this week, and production was stable. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization was 84.63%, with a 0% week - on - week change. The Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 74.71%, up 0.27% week - on - week [19]. - **PX - Naphtha Price Spread**: As of September 12, the PX - naphtha price spread was $232.8 per ton, down $0.92 per ton from September 5. With the increase in downstream PTA operating rate, PX is entering a destocking phase, and the PX - naphtha price spread is expected to rebound [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: With the restart of previously overhauled PTA devices and mediocre terminal orders during the traditional peak season, the PTA balance sheet is still destocking. However, due to overall poor commodity performance and concerns about future supply increases, PTA oscillated narrowly this week. As of September 12, the PTA spot price was 4,565 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 79 [25]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average PTA capacity utilization reached 74.95%, up 4.30% week - on - week and down 6.33% year - on - year. The restart of previously overhauled devices led to an increase in capacity utilization. In September, with the planned and expected restart of multiple devices, the domestic PTA device capacity utilization is expected to reach around 78% [28]. - **Processing Fee**: The PTA processing fee has weakened again due to increased domestic supply and slow terminal recovery. However, with a low valuation, the further downward space is limited, and it is expected to continue its weak pattern in the short - term [30]. - **Supply - Demand in September**: In September, with insufficient PTA device overhauls and the restart of overhauled devices, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to shift from destocking to a loose balance [33]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has no obvious change, and the main port inventory has reached a new low this year. However, due to new capacity commissioning and high domestic operating rates, the price decline has widened, once breaking through the 4,400 - yuan integer mark. As of September 12, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4,378 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,460 yuan per ton [38]. - **Domestic Production**: The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 66.55%, down 0.90% week - on - week. The integrated device capacity utilization was 66.92%, up 0.09% week - on - week, and the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 65.96%, down 2.47% week - on - week. In September, with the restart of some domestic existing devices and the end of the overhaul season, the overall ethylene glycol production is expected to continue to rise [42]. - **Port Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 11.28 tons. As of September 11, the total port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area was 36.32 tons, down 2.36 tons from September 8 and 1.31 tons from September 4 [43]. - **Processing Profit**: With the ethylene glycol main port inventory remaining at a low level, but new device commissioning and a pessimistic supply outlook, the ethylene glycol price declined this week. With raw material prices showing different trends, the sample profits of each ethylene glycol process showed both increases and decreases. As of September 12, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $102.41 per ton, down $3.99 per ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was - 53.39 yuan per ton, up 3.31 yuan per ton from last week [48]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industry Chain - **Polyester Production**: The weekly average polyester capacity utilization was 87.9%, up 0.56% week - on - week. There is no clear expected change in polyester device supply next week, and domestic polyester production is expected to remain stable [51]. - **Capacity Utilization Expectation**: In August, the polyester operating rate fluctuated narrowly. In September, due to the expectation of the traditional peak season, the planned restart of some previously reduced - production and overhauled devices, and the expected commissioning of multiple new devices, the monthly polyester load is expected to increase [54]. - **Capacity Utilization of Polyester Filament**: This week, the weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament was 91.43%, up 0.15% from the previous period. The average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber was stable at 86.82%, up 0.37% week - on - week. The capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was 81.99%, up 1.57% week - on - week [57]. - **Product Inventory**: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the overall sales level is average. The finished product inventory of polyester filament factories has slightly accumulated this week [60]. - **Cash Flow of Polyester Products**: With the decrease in polymerization cost, the transaction center of polyester products has also decreased, but the decline is smaller than that of raw materials, resulting in a partial repair of cash flow [62]. - **Weaving Load**: As of September 11, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 62.42%, the same as the previous data. The average terminal weaving order days were 14.55 days, an increase of 0.66 days from last week. Order recovery is less than expected, and the weaving load is expected to remain stable [67]. 3.5 Summary of Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Geopolitical instability supports oil prices, but OPEC+ may increase production in October, and demand has a seasonal decline. International oil prices are expected to face pressure next week. PX supply - demand is weak due to the previous unexpected shutdown of downstream PTA devices [68]. - **Supply Side**: PTA capacity utilization has increased this week. MEG total capacity utilization has decreased slightly, with a slight increase in integrated device capacity utilization and a decrease in coal - based capacity utilization [68]. - **Demand Side**: Polyester capacity utilization has increased, and the chemical fiber weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has remained the same. Order recovery is less than expected, and the overall market is in a wait - and - see state [68]. - **Inventory**: PTA has a strong expectation of future supply - demand stockpiling. MEG port inventory in the East China main port area has decreased [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side. For the rebound of the disk, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level. The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operation atmosphere remains cautious [9]. - The average operating load of polyester plants has further increased to 91.3%, up 1 percentage point from the previous week. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market's expectation of demand start is also slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton plant is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA Daily View** - Fundamental: On Friday, next - week's goods were negotiated and traded at a discount of 70 - 75 to the 01 contract, with some at a discount of 80. Goods for the end of September were traded at a discount of 75 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4550 - 4590. October goods were traded at a discount of 50 to the 01 contract. The mainstream spot basis on this day was 01 - 73, showing a neutral situation. - Basis: The spot price was 4565, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 83, indicating that the futures price was at a premium, which was bearish. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory was 3.84 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which was bullish. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish. - Main force position: The net short position increased, which was bearish. - Expectation: Recently, PTA warehouse receipts have continued to flow out, and some mainstream suppliers have sold goods. The liquidity in the spot market is fair, and the spot basis is running weakly. The PTA spot price fluctuates following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream plants [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - Fundamental: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) was weakly sorted out, and the market negotiation was average. During the night session, MEG opened lower and declined, with few buyers in the market. During the day, the market atmosphere remained weak, and the MEG disk adjusted at a low level. The mainstream spot transactions were carried out at a premium of 98 - 108 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the negotiation was stalemate. In terms of US dollars, the center of the MEG outer market declined weakly, and recent shipments were negotiated at around 514 - 518 US dollars/ton, with some financing merchants participating in inquiries. The domestic and foreign market transaction negotiation ranges were 4368 - 4405 yuan/ton and 514 - 518 US dollars/ton respectively, showing a neutral situation. - Basis: The spot price was 4378, and the basis of the 01 contract was 106, indicating that the futures price was at a discount, which was bullish. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 37.24 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons compared to the previous period, which was bullish. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish. - Main force position: The main net short position decreased, which was bearish. - Expectation: The arrival volume of MEG last week increased, and it is expected that the visible inventory will moderately rebound at the beginning of next week. During the process of the MEG price center's decline this week, the replenishment enthusiasm of polyester plants was fair. Affected by pre - festival stocking, the port shipments this month will perform well. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of shipments. In the near term, the supply - demand of MEG remains tight, and the basis still has certain support during the delivery period. However, with the advancement of new plant commissioning, the supply - demand in the far - term will turn loose, and the disk will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to plant changes [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production capacity, consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory changes [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including EG production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total consumption, and port inventory changes [12]. - **Price - related Data**: There are data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and various price spreads (such as TA - EG spot spread, PTA basis, MEG basis, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][21][22][24][28][31][35][38]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fiber products from 2020 - 2025, such as factory - level inventory days and port inventory [40][42][45][46][49]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: It shows the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol in the polyester upstream, and polyester plants and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the polyester downstream from 2020 - 2025 [51][55]. - **Profit - related Data**: It includes the processing fees of PTA, production margins of MEG (from different production methods), and production margins of polyester fiber products from 2022 - 2025 [60][61][64].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply reduction supports the price resilience of PTA, and its driving force depends on the terminal volume. The polyester industry chain presents a demand - driven repair, with PX - PTA prices likely to enter a bottom - oscillation stage. The inventory pressure of polyester staple fiber and some filament varieties still needs continuous terminal volume to digest, while POY has more price elasticity due to healthy inventory [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 10, the PX main contract closed at 6,770.0 yuan/ton, up 0.65% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 149.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,698.0 yuan/ton, up 0.43% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 88.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.53 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 62.77 dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 702.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 662.8 million meters [2] - On the supply side, there is a short - term tightening expectation for PX supply. The PX plant operating rate has decreased slightly, and the PTA load has dropped, which may force PX manufacturers to adjust the operating rate. For PTA, some large - scale plants have entered maintenance, and the overall industry load has dropped below 75%, which may support the PTA price [3] - On the demand side, the polyester demand still has resilience, but the risk of marginal weakening increases. The current polyester operating rate remains at a high level of 89%, but attention should be paid to the continuous accumulation of terminal grey fabric inventory and the fading of the pre - effect of European and American autumn and winter orders, which may suppress the subsequent replenishment momentum [4] - On the inventory side, the de - stocking intensity of PTA factories is a key variable. Although the absolute value of social inventory is still at the median level in the past three years, the available inventory days have decreased from 4.5 days to 3.8 days (a month - on - month decrease of 15.6%), indicating a marginal relief of inventory pressure. If the downstream stocking demand is released later, the PTA price center may move up [5] Polyester - On September 10, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,364.0 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,465.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 101.0 yuan/ton [6] - The current supply - demand pattern of the polyester industry chain is differentiated but generally stable. On the supply side, the prices of PX and PTA futures have declined, indicating loose supply or weakened cost support. On the demand side, the MA15 data of the China Light Textile City's trading volume has increased by 17% from September 1 to September 10, indicating a recovery in terminal weaving demand. On the inventory side, the inventory of polyester staple fiber is 6.97 days, far exceeding the five - year average of 4.96 days. Among filament varieties, the inventories of FDY (26.4 days) and DTY (29.7 days) are also higher than the historical averages, while the POY inventory of 17.4 days is lower than the historical center [6] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,770 yuan/ton on September 10, up 0.65% from the previous day. The main contract trading volume increased by 4.12% [8] - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,698 yuan/ton on September 10, up 0.43% from the previous day. The main contract trading volume increased by 32.76% [8] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,364 yuan/ton on September 10, up 0.19% from the previous day. The main contract trading volume decreased by 13.13% [8] - Other prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged on September 10 compared with the previous day [8] - Processing spreads: The processing spread of PTA decreased by 3.43 yuan/ton (3.57%) on September 10 compared with the previous day, while other processing spreads remained unchanged [9] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume on September 10 was 702 million meters, up 10.38% from the previous day. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 558 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 145 million meters [9] - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on September 10 compared with the previous day [9] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY increased on September 10 compared with previous data [9] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations Macro Dynamics - On September 9, the U.S. Senate panel will vote on the nomination of the Federal Reserve governor in Milan on Wednesday, and a full - scale vote will be held after approval. The New York Fed survey shows that the public expects the unemployment rate and unemployment risk to rise and expects the Fed to cut interest rates next week. Saudi Arabia has lowered the crude oil price for the Asian market. China's imports and exports in August increased by 3.5% year - on - year to 3.87 trillion yuan [10] Supply - Demand - Demand - On September 10, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 702.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 10.38%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 558.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 145.0 million meters [11] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including PX and PTA main futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures month - spreads, short - fiber futures month - spreads, industrial chain load rates, polyester staple fiber and filament production and sales, China Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [12][14][16][18][20][21][24][25][27][29][30][31] 5. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - Analyze the future price trends of PTA and PX from three dimensions: supply, demand, and inventory. On the supply side, the price increases of PX and PTA main contracts may indicate supply tightness, and the impact of crude oil price trends on PX cost needs to be considered. On the demand side, the trading volume data of the Light Textile City is crucial. High trading volume may indicate increased demand for PTA. On the inventory side, although the PTA factory inventory data is missing, the basis and price trends can be used to infer the inventory level. Finally, comprehensively analyze the three aspects to predict the future price trends of PTA and PX [38][39][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recovery speed of the terminal market is slow, and the upstream valuation is difficult to expand. PX, PTA, and MEG markets have different supply - demand and inventory situations. PX and MEG are expected to have inventory accumulation, while PTA is expected to continue de - stocking. The polyester end is gradually warming up, but the terminal performance is still poor. Attention should be paid to the follow - up performance of terminal orders and the opportunities of going long on dips following the raw materials during the peak season [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: Last month, the price first declined with crude oil and then increased due to unexpected production cuts in the raw material end. However, the actual unexpected maintenance volume was lower than expected, and the terminal performance was weak, suppressing the raw material valuation. Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. But due to the commissioning of new PTA devices, the inventory accumulation range of PX is not large. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downside space. However, due to the lack of driving force, PXN has limited upward momentum. The current valuation is at a moderately low level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [11] - **PTA**: Last month, the processing fee first increased after unexpected maintenance and then was compressed again. PXN was weak due to inventory accumulation, and crude oil fluctuated downward, causing the PTA price to rise and then fall. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has changed to de - stocking. However, due to the non - implementation of some maintenance, the processing fee is suppressed. On the demand side, the inventory pressure of polyester and chemical fiber is low, and the downstream and terminal operations have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. In terms of valuation, PXN has limited downside space under the improved pattern brought by PTA commissioning, and the raw material end valuations are all at low levels. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the terminal performance improves during the peak season [12] - **MEG**: Last month, the port inventory continued to decline, providing strong support for the overall valuation. However, the valuation weakened with the news of new device commissioning plans. In terms of industry fundamentals, the maintenance devices at home and abroad have gradually started, and the operation rate has reached a high level, with a high domestic supply. However, due to the low port arrival volume in the short term, the port inventory is expected to be low. In the medium term, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected continuous high domestic load, the inventory will turn to accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and the low short - term arrival volume supports the valuation, but there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [13] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **PX**: The basis fluctuated weakly, and the spread strengthened. The open interest and trading volume of active contracts and total contracts are presented in relevant charts [32][39][42] - **PTA**: The basis gradually weakened, and the spread was weak. The open interest and trading volume of active contracts and total contracts are shown in relevant charts [45][51][54] - **MEG**: The basis first declined and then strengthened, and the spread fluctuated weakly. The open interest was at a low level, and the trading volume decreased. The open interest and trading volume of active contracts and total contracts are presented in relevant charts [57][63][66][69] - **Overseas Commodity Prices**: The overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China are shown in relevant charts [71][72] 3. Para - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - **Capacity**: New capacity is expected to be added in 2025, such as the 300 - ton new capacity of Yantai Yulongdao [76] - **Supply**: The domestic and Asian PX loads are at a high level, and the maintenance volume in September is expected to further decrease, with an expected increase in production. The import volume from South Korea to China in August increased slightly [11] - **Demand**: The PTA load at the end of the month decreased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance volume in September decreased, and the average load is expected to be higher than that in August [11] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased year - on - year at the end of July, is expected to accumulate slightly in August, and will continue to accumulate in September [11] - **Cost and Profit**: PXN decreased by 33 dollars last month, and the short - process profit is relatively strong. The gasoline performance in the aromatics blending oil market improved slightly, and the gasoline cracking spread was weak [11][95] 4. PTA Fundamentals - **Capacity**: New capacity has been added in 2024 and 2025, such as the 250 - ton new capacity of Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III) in 2025 [127] - **Supply**: The PTA load at the end of the month decreased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance volume in September decreased, and the average load is expected to be higher than that in August [12] - **Demand**: The polyester load at the end of the month increased year - on - year, and the terminal situation has recovered but is still weak year - on - year [12] - **Inventory**: The PTA social inventory decreased year - on - month in August, and it is expected to continue de - stocking in September [12] - **Profit and Valuation**: The spot and futures processing fees increased month - on - month, but the overall processing fee is still weak [12] 5. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **Capacity**: New capacity is expected to be added in 2024 and 2025, such as the 80 - ton new capacity of Yulong Petrochemical 1 in 2025 [142] - **Supply**: The overall load of MEG has risen to a high level. The load of synthetic gas - based and ethylene - based production has increased. The import volume decreased slightly in July, and the arrival volume is expected to increase in the middle and late September [13][145] - **Demand**: The polyester load at the end of the month increased year - on - year, and the terminal situation has recovered but is still weak year - on - year [13] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased year - on - month, and the downstream factory inventory days decreased slightly. Although the domestic production increased in September, the port inventory is expected to remain low due to the concentrated arrival of ships in the middle and late period. In the medium term, inventory accumulation is expected [13] - **Cost and Profit**: The coal price was weakly volatile, and the ethylene price increased slightly. The valuation of MEG profit is relatively high [13][167] 6. Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester** - **Capacity**: New polyester filament devices have been commissioned, and new capacity has been added in 2024 and 2025, such as the 20 - ton new capacity of Hengchao in 2024 [184][187] - **Supply**: The operation rate has continued to recover, and the operation rates of polyester filament, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have increased [190][193] - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of polyester filament is moderate, the short - fiber inventory is neutral year - on - year, and the bottle - chip inventory is still high [197][200] - **Profit**: The profit of polyester filament has improved [206] - **Terminal** - **Operation**: The operation rate is still weak year - on - year [210] - **Orders and Inventory**: Orders have continued to improve, inventory has decreased, and raw material inventory has increased [219] - **Consumption**: The growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand has decreased, and exports are weak [224]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The PTA market shows a weak and volatile trend with sufficient spot supply, and the downstream polyester filament production and sales are about 51%. The PTA spot average price decreases, and the spot basis weakens. The MEG market in Zhangjiagang has a downward trend, and the futures continue the weak trend. The polyester downstream load remains at around 88%, and the domestic PTA production rebounds. The profit of polyester filament is significantly repaired, but some downstream device maintenance expectations are strong. The price of ethylene glycol recovers, and the later arrival volume decreases [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Data - INE crude oil price increases from 490.4 yuan/barrel to 493.2 yuan/barrel, with a change of 2.80 yuan/barrel. The PTA - SC value decreases from 1192.2 yuan/ton to 1147.9 yuan/ton, with a change of -44.35 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio decreases from 1.3345 to 1.3203, with a change of -0.0143. The CFR China PX price decreases from 846 to 843, with a change of -3. The PX - naphtha spread decreases from 250 to 243, with a change of -7 [2] - The PTA main contract futures price decreases from 4756 yuan/ton to 4732 yuan/ton, with a change of -24.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price decreases from 4725 yuan/ton to 4705 yuan/ton, with a change of -20.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreases from 179.6 yuan/ton to 159.5 yuan/ton, with a change of -20.1 yuan/ton. The disk processing fee decreases from 215.6 yuan/ton to 206.5 yuan/ton, with a change of -9.1 yuan/ton. The main contract basis changes from (49) to (51), with a change of -2.0 [2] - The MEG main contract futures price decreases from 4339 yuan/ton to 4331 yuan/ton, with a change of -8.0 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha value changes from (114.41) yuan/ton to (113.60) yuan/ton, with a change of 0.8 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreases from 4468 yuan/ton to 4435 yuan/ton, with a change of -33.0 yuan/ton. The main contract basis increases from 84 to 88, with a change of 4.0 [2] Industry Chain Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remains at 82.59%, with a change of 0.00%. The PTA operating rate remains at 74.26%, with a change of 0.00%. The MEG operating rate decreases from 62.03% to 61.77%, with a change of -0.26%. The polyester load remains at 87.99%, with a change of 0.00% [2] Polyester Product Data - The price of POY150D/48F remains at 6860, with a change of 0.0. The POY cash flow increases from 73 to 101, with a change of 28.0. The price of FDY150D/96F remains at 7130, with a change of 0.0. The FDY cash flow increases from (157) to (129), with a change of 28.0. The price of DTY150D/48F remains at 8035, with a change of 0.0. The DTY cash flow increases from 48 to 76, with a change of 28.0. The filament production and sales increase from 38% to 50%, with a change of 12% [2] - The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreases from 6590 to 6575, with a change of -15. The polyester staple fiber cash flow increases from 153 to 166, with a change of 13.0. The staple fiber production and sales decrease from 42% to 41%, with a change of -1% [2] - The price of semi - gloss chips decreases from 5815 to 5795, with a change of -20.0. The chip cash flow increases from (72) to (64), with a change of 8.0. The chip production and sales decrease from 61% to 46%, with a change of -15% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China starts parking for maintenance today, and another 2.5 - million - ton device is expected to stop around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of more than one month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is in the traditional peak season, waiting for demand recovery. Overall, due to the supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the upstream raw materials and the complex supply - demand relationship within the industry chain, the prices of various products in the polyester industry chain are expected to show an oscillatory downward trend, but there are differences among different products [6][17][52][98][144]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In August 2025, the polyester industry chain prices fluctuated within a range under the influence of market sentiment and costs. The price center of gravity first declined and then rebounded, and finally oscillated and declined at the end of the month [6]. 3.2 Crude Oil - In August 2025, the crude oil price first declined and then rebounded under the influence of geopolitics and supply - demand, with the price center of gravity moving downward. In September, OPEC+ will further increase production, and the demand will turn from peak to off - peak. Overall, the oil price is expected to oscillate downward [10][17]. 3.3 PX - In August 2025, PX supply increased, and the rigid demand weakened marginally. The price oscillated widely under the influence of costs and news. In September, it is expected that the supply - demand structure will remain relatively tight, and the PXN spread will oscillate strongly in the range of 250 - 300 US dollars/ton, while the absolute price is expected to oscillate weakly under the drive of costs [21][52]. 3.4 PTA - In August 2025, PTA processing fees were low, the start - up rate decreased, and the price oscillated with costs. In September, it is expected that the supply will decrease and the demand will increase, and the inventory will continue to decline slightly. The processing fees are expected to oscillate and rise, but the absolute price may oscillate downward under the guidance of costs [54][98]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - In August 2025, the start - up rate of ethylene glycol increased, and the inventory remained at a low level. The price oscillated with costs. In September, it is expected that the supply and demand will both increase, the de - stocking speed will slow down, and the price will be supported by low inventory, but the cost and macro - factors will still play a leading role in the price trend [102][144]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber - In August 2025, the start - up rate of polyester staple fiber increased, the downstream demand improved marginally, and the price fluctuated with costs. In general, the supply and demand both increased [146].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The PTA market had limited overall fluctuations, with sufficient spot supply, a weakening spot basis, and a slight decline in prices. The expansion of the spread between PX and naphtha and the weak benzene price restricted the further increase in PX production. With the improvement in recent sales and inventory reduction, especially the significant reduction of filament inventory, profits were significantly repaired, but some downstream devices had strong maintenance expectations [2]. - The ethylene glycol price rebounded. The planned production cut of South Korean naphtha cracking units and the continuous postponement of the maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol units, especially Saudi Arabian units, would have a significant impact on the market outlook, boosting the ethylene glycol price. The later arrival volume of ethylene glycol decreased, polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price decreased from 485.2 yuan/barrel on August 29, 2025, to 483.5 yuan/barrel on September 1, 2025, a decrease of 1.70 yuan/barrel. PTA-SC increased from 1258.0 yuan/ton to 1258.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3568 to 1.3581, an increase of 0.0014 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 849 to 848, a decrease of 1. The PX-naphtha spread decreased from 252 to 251, a decrease of 1 [2]. - The PTA主力期价 decreased from 4784 yuan/ton to 4772 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.0 yuan/ton. The PTA现货价格 decreased from 4740 yuan/ton to 4720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 197.3 yuan/ton to 180.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.3 yuan/ton. The盘面加工费 decreased from 231.3 yuan/ton to 222.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.3 yuan/ton. The主力基差 decreased from (35) to (42), a decrease of 7.0. The PTA仓单数量 decreased from 29938 to 29742, a decrease of 196 [2]. - The MEG主力期价 decreased from 4466 yuan/ton to 4427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.0 yuan/ton. MEG-石脑油 increased from (101.88) to (101.07), an increase of 0.8. MEG内盘 decreased from 4536 yuan/ton to 4513 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.0 yuan/ton. The主力基差 increased from 67 to 68, an increase of 1.0 [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - The PX开工率 remained unchanged at 82.59%. The PTA开工率 increased from 70.76% to 72.55%, an increase of 1.79%. The MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 62.03%. The聚酯负荷 increased from 87.15% to 87.99%, an increase of 0.84% [2]. Product Data - Among polyester filaments, POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6860, POY现金流 increased from 38 to 63, an increase of 25.0; FDY150D/96F decreased from 7140 to 7130, a decrease of 10.0, FDY现金流 increased from (182) to (167), an increase of 15.0; DTY150D/48F decreased from 8040 to 8035, a decrease of 5.0, DTY现金流 increased from 18 to 38, an increase of 20.0; the长丝产销 decreased from 42% to 40%, a decrease of 2% [2]. - For polyester staple fibers, 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6610 to 6605, a decrease of 5, 涤短现金流 increased from 138 to 158, an increase of 20.0, and the短纤产销 decreased from 45% to 39%, a decrease of 6% [2]. - For polyester chips, the半光切片 decreased from 5850 to 5815, a decrease of 35.0, 切片现金流 decreased from (72) to (82), a decrease of 10.0, and the切片产销 decreased from 78% to 65%, a decrease of 13% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 million - ton PTA device in South China started maintenance today, and another 2.5 million - ton device was expected to start maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of more than one month [2].