1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester industries, covering their basic knowledge, production, trade, and market conditions. It highlights the high concentration of PTA and MEG production in Asia, especially in China, and the significant growth in domestic production capacity in recent years. The report also discusses the trade patterns, profit situations, and market trends of these industries [12][24][43]. 3. Summary by Directory PTA Basics - **Definition and Market Introduction**: PTA, or purified terephthalic acid, was the first chemical futures variety listed in China in December 2006. It is a raw material for polyester with end - uses mainly in textile, clothing, and soft drinks [12]. - **Storage and Transportation**: Mainly stored in packaging bags at East China's main port terminals, with storage areas along the Yangtze River, Hangzhou Bay, and Xiamen. Transportation is mainly by sea and inland waterways, with some short - distance transportation by road [14]. - **Industry Chain**: Produced from crude oil via PX, it is mainly used to produce polyester (PET). One ton of PET requires 0.855 tons of PTA and 0.332 tons of MEG. About 70% of PTA is used for polyester fibers, 24% for bottle - grade polyester, and the rest for film - grade polyester [19][20]. - **Production Capacity**: Global PTA capacity is mainly in Asia (nearly 90%), with China accounting for over 78% of Asia's capacity. As of November 2025, China's effective PTA capacity reached 9471.5 million tons [24]. - **Capacity Distribution**: Regionally concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with private enterprises being the main suppliers. Yisheng and Hengli account for 41% of the total capacity [27][28]. - **Import and Export**: China's PTA imports have decreased from 2.74 million tons in 2013 to 18,000 tons in 2024, while exports reached 4.42 million tons in 2024, mainly to other Asian regions and Russia [31]. - **Profit Situation**: From 2016 - 2019, the industry had high profits due to limited new capacity and downstream recovery. From 2020 - 2024, private large - scale refineries' concentrated production led to compressed processing fees and the elimination of some high - cost small - scale plants [36]. - **Trading Patterns**: Include long - term contracts (referencing CCF's daily average price with appropriate premiums/discounts), spot trading (futures + price - fixing), and derivative pricing methods (futures price - fixing + monthly/weekly average basis) [38]. MEG Basics - **Definition and Application**: Ethylene glycol (MEG) is an important petrochemical raw material, mainly used in polyester production. Globally, about 85% of MEG is used in polyester, while in China, over 93% is used in polyester [43]. - **Production Process**: The main synthesis routes are the ethylene route (including petroleum ethylene, ethane ethylene, and MTO ethylene methods) and the oxalate route. The ethylene method is the global mainstream, while China mainly uses the petroleum ethylene method and the coal - to - ethylene glycol oxalate method [50][51]. - **Profitability of Different Processes**: Coal - to - MEG's profit has improved significantly this year, with higher operating loads. Ethylene - based MEG has been operating below the break - even point, but losses have narrowed compared to the previous two years [54]. - **Production Capacity Development**: China's MEG production capacity has reached 30.075 million tons, with ethylene - based capacity accounting for about 64% and coal - based capacity accounting for 36% [58][62]. - **Production Distribution**: Ethylene - based plants are mainly in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Liaoning, while coal - based plants are in Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia [62]. - **Import and Export**: MEG imports peaked in 2020 and have since declined. In 2024, the import dependence dropped to 25%, with the main import sources being Saudi Arabia, Canada, and the United States [65]. Downstream Polyester Basics - **PTA/MEG's Downstream Products**: The main downstream demand for PTA/MEG is polyester, which is used in textile, clothing, beverages, and film products. Filament has the largest share in polyester, followed by short - fiber and bottle - chips [69]. - **Short - Fiber Basics**: Polyester short - fiber is made from PTA and MEG. Its trade pattern is mainly from east to west and bidirectional north - south. The main production and sales areas are Jiangsu, Fujian, and Zhejiang, with transportation mainly by road, water, and rail [71][76][77]. - **Short - Fiber Industry Chain**: It is produced from crude oil via PTA and MEG, with end - uses in filling, non - woven, and spinning. In 2024, spinning accounted for 64% of direct - spun polyester short - fiber production [79]. - **Short - Fiber Production Capacity Distribution**: Concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. In recent years, short - fiber exports have increased significantly, with 1.318 million tons exported in 2024, a 9.4% increase year - on - year, and 1.255 million tons exported from January - September 2025, a 31% increase year - on - year [83][88]. - **Polyester Bottle - Chips Basics**: Made from PTA and MEG, used mainly for packaging. Sales are divided into direct sales (60% - 70%) and distribution (30% - 40%) [91][102]. - **Bottle - Chips Production Capacity**: Production capacity has increased rapidly, exceeding 20 million tons at the end of 2024, almost doubling since the end of 2022 [105]. - **Bottle - Chips Demand**: Global demand has been growing steadily, with an average annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2015 - 2024. In 2024, the main downstream consumption areas were soft drinks (39%), exports (42.4%), sheet materials (15.8%), and oil bottles (2.9%) [108]. - **Bottle - Chips Export Trade**: China is the world's largest net exporter, with exports widely distributed. In 2024, the top five export destinations accounted for only 23% of total exports [112][113].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to factors such as high gasoline profit rates and low pure benzene prices, which limit PX supply. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester开工 remains stable, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. The downstream weaving industry shows good performance, and export demand may improve [3]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly by 120,000 tons. Ethylene prices cannot support the strengthening of ethylene glycol prices. New device commissions put pressure on ethylene glycol prices. The cost support from rising coal prices is weak, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The reduction of tariffs after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Summary - INE crude oil price increased from 449.5 yuan/barrel on November 13, 2025, to 457.4 yuan/barrel on November 14, 2025, with a change of 7.9 yuan [3]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1433.4 yuan/ton to 1376.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 57.41 yuan; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4388 to 1.4140, a change of - 0.0249 [3]. - CFR China PX increased from 826 to 832, a change of 6; PX - naphtha spread increased from 242 to 263, a change of 21 [3]. - PTA spot price increased from 4565 yuan/ton to 4635 yuan/ton, a change of 70 yuan; spot processing fee increased from 145.9 yuan/ton to 186.3 yuan/ton, a change of 40.4 yuan; the disk processing fee decreased from 280.9 yuan/ton to 251.3 yuan/ton, a change of - 29.6 yuan [3]. - MEG主力期价 increased from 3892 yuan/ton to 3922 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan; MEG - naphtha increased from - 147 yuan/ton to - 144 yuan/ton, a change of 3 yuan; MEG内盘 increased from 3941 yuan/ton to 3980 yuan/ton, a change of 39 yuan [3]. - PX, PTA, and MEG开工 rates remained unchanged at 88.03%, 76.84%, and 64.20% respectively; polyester负荷 decreased from 89.07% to 88.69%, a change of - 0.38% [3]. - Among polyester products, POY150D/48F and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged, FDY150D/96F increased by 30 yuan, 1.4D直纺涤短 increased by 60 yuan, and semi - light切片 increased by 35 yuan [3]. - The cash flows of POY, DTY, and涤短 decreased by 73, 73, and 13 respectively, and FDY现金流 decreased by 43 [3]. - The production and sales rates of long - staple fiber increased by 2%, and those of short - staple fiber increased by 9%, while the production and sales rate of polyester切片 decreased by 17% [3]. Device Maintenance Information - The restart time of a 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device in Singapore, which was originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has been postponed, and the specific restart plan is unknown [4].

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain has shown strong performance recently, driven by a combination of macroeconomic recovery, stable cost support, and robust fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in the polyester industry chain since late October is attributed to stable cost support, particularly from international oil prices and coordinated production cuts by leading PTA companies [1] - The PX segment has been particularly strong due to tight supply expectations, with new capacity not expected until Q3 2026 [1] - Geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Nigeria have provided upward momentum for crude oil prices, which continues to affect the polyester industry chain [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Improved supply and demand dynamics, along with a recovery in terminal orders and easing US-China trade relations, have heightened expectations for an increase in foreign trade orders by year-end [1] - The PTA price rebound is supported by increased maintenance of PTA facilities, which delays supply pressure, and favorable export conditions due to India's cancellation of BIS certification for polyester products [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Risks - Despite PTA futures nearing September highs, concerns about price declines are limited, with a low probability of significant downward movement in polyester chain prices [3] - The market is currently experiencing a phase of "cost support, improved expectations, and differentiated fundamentals," with short-term strong fluctuations expected to continue [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Future price increases in the polyester industry chain will largely depend on cost factors and whether domestic and foreign orders improve beyond expectations [4] - Analysts express differing views on the market outlook, with some expecting a strong performance driven by long-term fundamentals, while others caution about potential downward risks from declining downstream orders [4][5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of the polyester industry, covering PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products [3][4][5] - It includes supply, demand, valuation, and strategy insights for each segment - Forecasts for 2026 indicate continued growth in polyester production and potential challenges in supply - demand balance Group 2: PX Analysis Investment Rating - PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain in the first half of 2026 [15] Core View - PX is in a strong - oscillating market, with cost support from blending demand but potential downstream demand weakness [3] Supply - Chinese FJDH will expand a 70 - ton device to 100 tons by the end of the year; some overseas devices are under maintenance [3] - The domestic operating rate is at a historical high, with 10 - month output of 3.35 million tons and this week's rate at 86.8% (- 3%) [46] Demand - PTA load has been adjusted, and subsequent load will remain low, with inventory accumulation pressure easing temporarily [3][4] Valuation - PXN is at $256/ton (+15), and PX - MX Korea FOB spread is $103/ton (- 6) [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range of 6,600 - 7,100 [3] - Inter - period: 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3] - Inter - variety: Short PXN at high levels [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Investment Rating - PTA is in a strong - oscillating market, but with limited upside space [4] Core View - Cost support exists, but supply may still be excessive after some device overhauls end [4] Supply - Some PTA devices are under maintenance, and the load has been adjusted to 75.7% (- 0.7%) [4][84] - The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is 60.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [84] Demand - Polyester load has temporarily decreased but is expected to rebound; domestic weaving orders are weakening [4] Valuation - The processing fee of the 01 contract is 219 yuan/ton (- 31), and the spot processing fee is 173 yuan/ton (+ 51) [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range of 4,500 - 4,800 [4] - Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage at high levels [4] - Inter - variety: Long PTA and short MEG, long PX and short PTA [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Investment Rating - MEG faces medium - term supply pressure and is in a short - term weak - oscillating state [5] Core View - Supply pressure persists, and short - term trends are weak, with a negative spread strategy for the spread [5] Supply - The overall operating rate is 72.44% (- 3.76%), and some coal - based devices have reduced loads [5][128] - Imports have been concentrated recently, and port inventories are accumulating [5][131] Demand - Domestic downstream orders are weakening, but polyester load remains relatively stable in the short term [5] Valuation - Coal - based device profit is - 299 yuan/ton (- 265), and oil - based devices continue to lose money [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range of 3,800 - 4,000 [5] - Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [5] - Inter - variety: Long L and short MEG [5] Group 5: Polyester Analysis Investment Rating - The polyester industry shows stable growth, with potential for continued export - driven demand [154][155] Core View - Polyester production is growing steadily, and inventory levels are generally neutral to low [154][156] Supply - Polyester load has temporarily decreased but is expected to rebound; production in 2025 has increased year - on - year [149][155] Demand - Export demand is strong, with significant growth in various polyester product exports from January to September 2025 [155] Inventory - Overall inventory is neutral to low, and the operating resilience of filament production has increased [156] Strategy - Monitor the impact of upstream raw material prices and downstream demand on polyester production and sales

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: Gasoline supply contraction leads to an expansion of gasoline profits, indirectly supporting PX prices. Russian crude oil supply has decreased due to sanctions, and the profit expansion of diesel and other products prompts refineries to prioritize the production of gasoline and diesel. PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester production is stable, and polyester load remains above 90%. Domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Tight PX supply has widened the spread between PX and naphtha, while PTA processing fees have been compressed to below 200. Although the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" have ended, export demand may improve under the easing of the China - US trade war. Recently, downstream weaving has performed well, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China has increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price. New device commissions have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price, and the spot tightness caused by low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. The increase in coal prices has not provided stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The China - US trade negotiation has been reached, and the reduction of tariffs may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Data - INE crude oil price decreased from 461.8 yuan/barrel on November 10, 2025, to 458.8 yuan/barrel on November 11, 2025, a decrease of 3.00 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1348.1 yuan/ton to 1313.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.20 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.4017 to 1.3941, a decrease of 0.0076 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 828 to 821, a decrease of 7; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 246 to 239, a decrease of 8 [2]. - PTA主力期价 decreased from 4704 yuan/ton to 4648 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4605 yuan/ton to 4600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA现货加工费 increased from 175.8 yuan/ton to 192.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.8 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 274.8 yuan/ton to 255.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG主力期价 decreased from 3953 yuan/ton to 3875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (149.62) yuan/ton to (149.81) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG内盘 decreased from 4003 yuan/ton to 3981 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.0 yuan/ton [2]. b. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX开工率 remained at 88.03%, PTA开工率 remained at 76.31%, MEG开工率 remained at 63.74%, and polyester负荷 remained at 89.70% [2]. c. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150D/48F increased from 6555 to 6600, an increase of 45.0; POY现金流 increased from 27 to 83, an increase of 56.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F increased from 6770 to 6805, an increase of 35.0; FDY现金流 increased from (258) to (212), an increase of 46.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F increased from 7840 to 7860, an increase of 20.0; DTY现金流 increased from 112 to 143, an increase of 31.0 [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6415 to 6365, a decrease of 50; 涤短现金流 decreased from 237 to 198, a decrease of 39.0 [2]. - 半光切片 remained at 5595; 切片现金流 increased from (33) to (22), an increase of 11.0 [2]. d. Product Sales - 长丝产销 increased from 50% to 54%, an increase of 4% [2]. - 短纤产销 decreased from 66% to 41%, a decrease of 25% [2]. - 切片产销 decreased from 82% to 51%, a decrease of 31% [2]. e. Device Maintenance An East - China PTA device with a capacity of 2.2 million tons has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market rose due to rumors of potential maintenance of an East - China PX plant at the beginning of next year, pushing up the PTA price. Although the PTA processing fee was compressed again, the polyester start - up was stable, the polyester load remained above 90%, and domestic polyester exports were still optimistic. The current peak season is expected to last until November. For ethylene glycol, low port inventory and expected decline in overseas imports are offset by new device production pressure, and the coal price increase has not provided strong cost support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price decreased from 463.7 yuan/barrel on November 5, 2025, to 460.4 yuan/barrel on November 6, 2025, a decrease of 3.3 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased by 111.98 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0361. PTA主力期价 rose from 4600 yuan/ton to 4688 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 4505 yuan/ton to 4540 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 41.3 yuan/ton, while the disk processing fee increased by 36.7 yuan/ton. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased by 5909 [3]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased from 816 to 826, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 9 [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 rose from 3914 yuan/ton to 3924 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread remained unchanged. The MEG domestic price decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 3 [3]. Industry Chain Start - up - PX, PTA, MEG start - up rates and polyester load all remained unchanged at 86.21%, 77.84%, 63.74%, and 89.56% respectively [3]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased by 29. FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased by 29. DTY150D/48F price increased by 5, and its cash flow decreased by 24. The long - filament sales rate increased from 52% to 70% [3]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased by 15, and its cash flow decreased by 14. The short - fiber sales rate increased from 38% to 70% [3]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price increased by 5, and its cash flow decreased by 24. The chip sales rate increased from 46% to 143% [3]. Device Maintenance - An East - China 2.2 million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, with supply surplus, weak demand, and no new intensification in geopolitical situations, international crude oil is expected to run weakly. For PX, its load has recovered to a relatively high level, and with few maintenance plans in the fourth quarter, the rebound space for the PX - naphtha spread is limited [6]. - For PTA, multiple plants have maintenance expectations, so the supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Although there are expectations for new polyester plant launches, demand will gradually decline after the traditional peak season, and polyester monthly output will decline. With the weak outlook for crude oil, the seasonal weakness of PTA in the distant end is hard to change, and it is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in November [6]. - For ethylene glycol (MEG), with the weakness of international crude oil, the supply - demand situation is expected to lead to inventory accumulation. However, the inventory at the main ports is at a low level, so MEG may continue to be under pressure, and the industry will continue the high - level hedging strategy [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **1.1 Market Review**: In October, although the oil price dropped and cost support was weak, the downstream demand for PX showed a slight improvement. Terminal inventory - building enthusiasm increased, and the downstream was in the destocking stage. Coupled with the relatively low PX - naphtha spread at the end of September, the PX price rose slightly compared to the end of September. As of October 31, the closing price of Asian PX was 820.33 US dollars/ton CFR China, up 12 US dollars/ton from September 30, with a decline rate of 1.42% [12]. - **1.2 Maintenance and Restart**: In October, the Fuguidaohua 1.4 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, and the Urumqi Petrochemical was under maintenance for about half a month. The PX industry's operating load reached 90.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4% [15]. - **1.3 Demand and Spread**: As of October 31, the PX - naphtha spread reached 239.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.75 US dollars/ton from September 30. With the continuous destocking of downstream PTA, good polyester sales, reduced inventory, and enhanced terminal restocking enthusiasm, the PX - naphtha spread was significantly repaired [18]. 2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - **2.1 Market Review**: Drag from both cost and supply - demand factors led to a downward shift in the PTA price center. In the second half of the month, positive signals from the China - US economic and trade talks repaired market expectations for demand prospects, boosting market sentiment and causing the price to rebound from a low level. As of October 31, the PTA spot price was 4,510 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 71 [19]. - **2.2 Capacity Utilization**: In October, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.02%, a month - on - month increase of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.77%. In November, plants such as Dushan Energy, Honggang Petrochemical, Sichuan Energy Investment, Ineos, Yisheng Ningbo, and Hengli Petrochemical have maintenance plans, and PTA monthly output is expected to decline [23]. - **2.3 Processing Fee**: In October, new plants were under trial operation, and previously maintained plants restarted. The destocking amplitude of supply - demand decreased, and terminal performance was below expectations, causing the PTA processing fee to continue to weaken. The average monthly PTA processing fee in October was 145.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.06% [28]. - **2.4 Supply - Demand Inventory**: In November, with the expected significant increase in supply from new PTA plants, and with plants under maintenance and restarting, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to shift to inventory accumulation [29]. 3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - **3.1 Market Review**: In October, the sharp decline in international oil prices dragged down the cost of ethylene glycol. Maintenance enterprises restarted one after another, and new production capacity was released. With stable imports, the overall supply increased significantly. Terminal orders were mediocre, and downstream polyester inventory remained high. The East China spot price dropped below 4,100 yuan/ton from 4,214 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and then rebounded slightly to around 4,150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. As of October 31, the closing price of MEG in Zhangjiagang was 4,111 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,210 yuan/ton [34]. - **3.2 Production Capacity Utilization**: In October, the domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was about 66.82%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of non - coal - based ethylene glycol was about 65.28%, and that of coal - based ethylene glycol was about 69.42% [35]. - **3.3 Port Inventory**: As of October 30, the total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 49.9 tons, an increase of 3.4 tons from October 27. As of November 6, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is 15 tons, including 6 tons in Zhangjiagang, 5 tons in Taicang, 2 tons in Ningbo, and 1.9 tons in Jiangyin [41]. - **3.4 Processing Profit**: With the increase in international oil prices, the cost - end support moved up. The domestic supply decreased briefly, and downstream polyester demand was stable. However, the supply - demand fundamentals were expected to be weak, and the ethylene glycol price fluctuated and consolidated. Currently, the sample profits of each process remain in a loss state. As of October 30, the naphtha profit dropped to - 116.86 US dollars/ton, and the integrated plants were still in a loss state, while the profits of other processes also maintained varying degrees of losses [44]. 4. Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industry Chain - **4.1 Polyester Output**: In October, polyester output was 6.87 million tons, slightly higher than expected. The polyester production capacity base increased to 87.635 million tons, and the polyester capacity utilization rate was about 87.66%, also a slight increase compared to September [47]. - **4.2 Polyester Load**: In November, there are expectations for new plant launches, but as the traditional peak season ends, demand will gradually decline, and polyester monthly output will decline [49]. - **4.3 Polyester Product Inventory**: At the end of the month, downstream continued to replenish inventory, and the overall sales of polyester products increased. The finished - product inventory of polyester factories decreased in the latter part of the month [52]. - **4.4 Polyester Cash Flow**: With the increase in polymerization costs and limited increases in polyester filament prices, the cash flow of most models was compressed [57]. - **4.5 Weaving Industry**: As of October 30, the operating load of the weaving industry was 69%, a month - on - month increase of 2.55%. The average number of days for terminal weaving orders was 17.86 days, an increase of 2.18 days from the previous week. As the temperature drops, the market mainly focuses on winter orders for Double Eleven, but the export volume of stretch yarns has declined. Most manufacturers are cautious about November demand and are currently focusing on inventory digestion. If terminal orders cannot continue to increase, manufacturers may still reduce production to avoid risks [60].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PTA prices rebounded slightly as crude oil prices recovered. The PTA supply side contracted due to low processing fees, and the polyester industry's profit was affected by over - capacity. However, the upward trend of crude oil prices supported PTA. The downstream polyester load remained above 87%, and the demand was slightly better than expected. The market is concerned about the impact of Sino - US negotiations on textile and clothing demand, and sanctions on some domestic refineries may affect PX supply [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remained low, and the arrival volume was limited. Overseas imports were expected to decline, but domestic plant production pressured the price. With the end of the polyester peak season and the downward trend of the crude oil fundamentals, polyester is expected to operate weakly [2]. 3) Summary Based on Related Catalogs a. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 459.7 yuan/barrel on October 23, 2025, to 464.9 yuan/barrel on October 24, 2025, an increase of 5.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread decreased by 27.79 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio decreased by 0.0121. The PTA主力期价 rose by 10 yuan/ton, the spot price rose by 25 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 12 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 remained unchanged [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased by 4, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 26 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 decreased by 18 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 1.2 yuan/ton, and the MEG inner - market price increased by 14 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price increased by 40 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F price increased by 35 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F price decreased by 15 yuan/ton. 1.4D straight - spun polyester staple fiber price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the semi - gloss chip price remained unchanged [2]. b. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The PX operating rate remained at 84.62% [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA operating rate increased from 76.95% to 79.46%, an increase of 2.51% [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG operating rate remained at 61.89% [2]. - **Polyester**: The polyester load remained at 89.38% [2]. c. Product Cash Flow and Sales - **Polyester Filament**: POY cash flow increased by 14, FDY cash flow increased by 9, DTY cash flow decreased by 41, and the filament sales rate remained at 101% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased by 16, and the short - fiber sales rate remained at 68% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The chip cash flow decreased by 26, and the chip sales rate remained at 54% [2]. d. Device Maintenance An East China 2.2 - million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last week, PXN was slightly compressed. Due to weak fundamentals and limited by PTA processing fees, the overall valuation was difficult to expand. The price rose passively following crude oil. Currently, PX load remains high, with many PTA downstream overhauls and a low overall load center. The expectation of new PTA device production suppresses PTA processing fees, making it difficult to continuously reduce PX inventory. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is difficult to expand actively due to PTA processing fees. The valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There is a risk of negative feedback under the reality of low PTA processing fees. Short - term observation is recommended [11]. - PTA: Last week, PTA processing fees continued to be compressed in a weak pattern. Even though terminal data improved significantly, it was essentially due to the difficult - to - relieve pressure expectation on the supply side. Therefore, this week's rebound was mainly a passive rebound following costs. In the future, the short - term supply - side overhaul volume will decrease, turning to slight inventory accumulation. Due to the weak long - term pattern expectation, processing fees are difficult to expand. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester chemical fibers are low, and the load is expected to remain high. However, due to inventory pressure and the off - season of downstream bottle chips, the bottle chip load is difficult to increase, and the probability of further boosting the polyester load is small. The improved terminal data is difficult to be reflected in the already high polyester chemical fiber load. In terms of valuation, PXN is continuously suppressed by continuous PTA overhauls under low processing fees. There is even a risk of negative feedback under the reality of low PTA processing fees. Short - term observation is recommended [12]. - MEG: In terms of industrial fundamentals, the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, the domestic supply is high, and the import volume has rebounded, with ports turning to inventory accumulation. In the medium term, as imports arrive in a concentrated manner and the domestic load is expected to remain high, coupled with the gradual commissioning of new devices, inventory accumulation is expected to continue in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is still relatively high compared to the same period, and there is pressure for continuous compression in the weak pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX** - **Price performance**: Last week, it rebounded significantly. The 01 contract rose 230 yuan in a single week, reporting 6522 yuan. The spot - end CFR China rose 32 dollars, reporting 815 dollars. The spot - converted basis rose 30 yuan, reaching 141 yuan as of October 24. The 1 - 3 spread rose 2 yuan, reaching - 8 yuan as of October 24 [11]. - **Supply side**: Last week, the Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase month - on - month; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, there were few overall changes in China. Overseas, a 540,000 - ton device of Thailand's PTTG was under overhaul, and the Saudi overhaul was postponed. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 256,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of October, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons. Overall, the subsequent domestic overhaul volume is still small, and the load remains high [11]. - **Demand side**: The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, and the load of individual devices recovered. The PTA overhaul volume in October decreased slightly, and the overall load was low under low processing fees [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, there was a slight inventory increase in September. Due to the slight decrease in PTA overhaul volume in October, a slight inventory reduction is expected [11]. - **Valuation cost side**: As of October 23, last week's PXN was 239 dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1 dollar; the naphtha spread decreased by 9 dollars, reaching 90 dollars as of October 23, and crude oil rebounded significantly. In terms of aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil, last week, the US gasoline spread remained stable, the Asian gasoline spread was relatively strong, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread increased, and the relative value of blending for oil increased [11]. - **PTA** - **Price performance**: Last week, it rebounded significantly. The 01 contract rose 116 yuan in a single week, reporting 4518 yuan. The spot - end East China price rose 110 yuan, reporting 4450 yuan. The spot basis rose 2 yuan, reaching - 83 yuan as of October 24. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 8 yuan, reaching - 66 yuan as of October 24 [12]. - **Supply side**: The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, and the load of individual devices recovered. The PTA overhaul volume in October decreased slightly, and the overall load was low under low processing fees [12]. - **Demand side**: Last week, the polyester load was 91.4%, remaining flat month - on - month. Among them, the filament load was 92.4%, a 0.4% decrease month - on - month; the staple fiber load was 94.3%, remaining flat month - on - month; the bottle chip load was 73.2%, a 0.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, there were few overall changes. In terms of polyester, profits improved, and short - term inventory pressure decreased significantly. The load is expected to remain high; bottle chips are restricted by inventory pressure and the downstream off - season, and the load will remain stable in the short term. At the terminal, finished product inventory decreased, orders increased, the texturing load was 84%, a 4% increase month - on - month; the loom load was 75%, a 6% increase month - on - month; the polyester yarn load was 66%, remaining flat month - on - month. In September, domestic textile and clothing retail sales increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 8.3% year - on - year [12]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the overall PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.176 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,000 tons, with a slight inventory increase. The downstream load remains high, but the PTA overhaul volume in October has decreased slightly, and slight inventory accumulation is expected [12]. - **Profit side**: Last week, the spot processing fee decreased by 60 yuan, reaching 79 yuan/ton as of October 24; the disk processing fee decreased by 35 yuan, reaching 240 yuan/ton as of October 24 [12]. - **MEG** - **Price performance**: Last week, it rebounded significantly. The 01 contract rose 74 yuan in a single week, reporting 4077 yuan. The spot - end East China price rose 72 yuan, reporting 4187 yuan. The basis rose 19 yuan, reaching 93 yuan as of October 24. The 1 - 5 spread rose 6 yuan, reaching - 76 yuan as of October 24 [13]. - **Supply side**: Last week, the EG load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease month - on - month. Among them, the synthetic gas - based load was 82.2%, a 0.8% increase month - on - month; the ethylene - based load was 68.2%, a 6.3% decrease month - on - month. In terms of synthetic gas - based devices, there were few device changes; in terms of petrochemicals, Fulein and Shenghong were under overhaul, CNOOC Shell restarted, and Sinopec Zhongke Refining had a short - term shutdown; overseas, Shell in the United States restarted. Overall, there are few subsequent overhaul devices, the load will remain high, and there is pressure for further increase. In terms of arrivals, last week's arrival forecast was 53,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49,000 tons. In September, imports were 620,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons [13]. - **Demand side**: Last week, the polyester load was 91.4%, remaining flat month - on - month. Among them, the filament load was 92.4%, a 0.4% decrease month - on - month; the staple fiber load was 94.3%, remaining flat month - on - month; the bottle chip load was 73.2%, a 0.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, there were few overall changes. In terms of polyester, profits improved, and short - term inventory pressure decreased significantly. The load is expected to remain high; bottle chips are restricted by inventory pressure and the downstream off - season, and the load will remain stable in the short term. At the terminal, finished product inventory decreased, orders increased, the texturing load was 84%, a 4% increase month - on - month; the loom load was 75%, a 6% increase month - on - month; the polyester yarn load was 66%, remaining flat month - on - month. In September, domestic textile and clothing retail sales increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 8.3% year - on - year [13]. - **Inventory**: As of October 20, the port inventory was 579,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38,000 tons; the downstream factory inventory days were 13.4 days, a 0.2 - day increase month - on - month. In the short term, the arrival volume was moderately low last week, the departure volume increased, and the port inventory is expected to decrease slightly. With a high domestic load and an increase in overseas arrivals, ethylene glycol has entered an inventory accumulation cycle [13]. - **Valuation cost side**: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 123 yuan to - 611 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based profit increased by 80 yuan to - 646 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 475 yuan to 253 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene was 780 dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines was 660 yuan/ton. The cost of coal rebounded, and ethylene prices fell. Currently, the overall valuation is relatively high [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **PX**: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread fluctuated weakly [32]. - **PTA**: The basis was at a low level, and the monthly spread weakened. The trading volume and open interest were at low levels [44][47]. - **MEG**: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread was weak. The trading volume and open interest were at low levels [56][63]. 3.3. PX Fundamentals - **Capacity and load**: In 2025, Yantai Yulongdao in Shandong is expected to add 3 million tons of new PX capacity in the second half of the year. Last week, the Chinese PX load was 85.9%, a 1% increase month - on - month; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase month - on - month [77][11]. - **Imports**: In September, the PX import volume remained stable [83]. - **Inventory**: In August, the inventory remained stable [91]. - **Cost - profit**: PXN contracted, the short - process spread increased, and the naphtha spread decreased [95]. - **Aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil**: Asian gasoline performed strongly, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread increased, and the relative value of blending for oil increased [102][110][112]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - **Capacity and load**: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 are expected to add new PTA capacities. Last week, the PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month [134][12]. - **Exports**: Relevant data on PTA exports are provided, including exports to India, Turkey, and Vietnam [139]. - **Inventory**: The inventory remains at a low level [140]. - **Profit**: The spot and disk processing fees decreased last week [12]. 3.5. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **Capacity and load**: In 2025, Yulong Petrochemical 1 and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) are expected to add new MEG capacities. Last week, the EG load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease month - on - month. The synthetic gas - based device load was at a historical high [145][13][148]. - **Imports**: Data on MEG imports from Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are provided [150]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly this week, and the inventory of upstream and downstream factories increased [152]. - **Cost**: Coal prices rebounded, and ethylene was weak [162]. - **Profit**: The naphtha - based profit remained continuously high, and the coal - based profit was compressed [165]. 3.6. Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester** - **New device production**: There are new polyester filament and bottle chip devices going into production [180]. - **Basis**: The staple fiber basis strengthened, and the bottle chip basis fluctuated [184]. - **Supply**: The operating rate remained at a high level [187]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of polyester products such as filaments, staple fibers, and bottle chips is presented [193][195]. - **Profit**: The filament profit decreased [201]. - **Terminal** - **Textile enterprise orders and inventory**: Orders increased, inventory decreased, and raw material inventory preparation increased [207]. - **Textile and clothing and soft drinks**: Domestic textile and clothing consumption growth recovered, and exports were weak [212]. - **US clothing inventory**: The wholesale inventory is below the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory is increasing marginally [214].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The game intensifies, with sentiment and fundamentals resonating. The PTA supply side is shrinking, and its processing fee remains low. Industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new device launches. Although the polyester downstream load remains above 90%, there are concerns about subsequent textile and clothing demand after the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The PTA operating rate may decline further, and it's difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to crude oil price trends [2]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China is still at a low level, with limited port arrivals this week and expected decline in overseas imports. Domestic device launches are pressuring the price. Coal - based ethylene glycol devices are resuming. The overall polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is maintained. However, as the polyester peak season is ending and the crude oil fundamentals are weakening, the polyester is expected to run weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Crude oil and PTA - related**: INE crude rose from 447.2 yuan/barrel on October 22, 2025, to 459.7 yuan/barrel on October 23, 2025. The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1232.2 yuan/ton to 1167.3 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.3791 to 1.3494. The PTA main contract futures price increased from 4482 yuan/ton to 4508 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot price rose from 4370 yuan/ton to 4425 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX increased from 798 to 811, and the PX - naphtha spread rose from 258 to 260 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main contract futures price increased from 4051 yuan/ton to 4095 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 110.72 yuan/ton to - 104.91 yuan/ton, and the MEG domestic price rose from 4107 to 4173 [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained at 84.62%, the PTA operating rate was stable at 76.95%, the MEG operating rate decreased from 63.35% to 61.89%, and the polyester load remained at 89.38% [2]. Product Sales and Cash Flow - **Polyester filament**: POY150D/48F decreased from 6380 to 6360, and its cash flow dropped from 18 to - 71. FDY150D/96F increased from 6590 to 6620, and its cash flow decreased from - 272 to - 311. DTY150D/48F decreased from 7740 to 7735, and its cash flow dropped from 178 to 104. The filament sales rate increased from 53% to 101% [2]. - **Polyester staple fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6365 to 6390, and its cash flow decreased from 353 to 309. The staple fiber sales rate decreased from 107% to 68% [2]. - **Polyester chips**: The semi - bright chip price increased from 5485 to 5525, and its cash flow decreased from 23 to - 6. The chip sales rate decreased from 141% to 54% [2]. Device Maintenance An East - China 2.2 - million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].