贸易谈判

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美国股指期货略微走高 市场焦点转向经济数据和美联储
news flash· 2025-07-29 12:33
智通财经7月29日电,美国股指期货随美元走高,一系列经济数据转移了市场对贸易谈判的关注。标普 500指数期货上涨0.3%,此前该指数小幅攀升至最新纪录高点。纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.5%,道指期 货走高0.1%。美元指数升至逾五周高位,因市场猜测一系列经济数据将显示关税影响暂且得到控制。 投资者的关注点正从近期美国与欧盟、日本的关税协议转向涵盖就业、通胀及更广泛经济活动的关键指 标。美联储料于周三维持利率不变,而投资者将密切关注本周四家科技巨头发布的财报。"近期与日本 和欧盟等重要伙伴在贸易谈判中取得的进展,为企业提供了些许明确性,并使投资者有机会转向其他议 题,如企业盈利和市场基本面,"BMO Private Wealth首席市场策略师Carol Schleif在报告中写道。 美国股指期货略微走高 市场焦点转向经济数据和美联储 ...
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250729
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - With recent progress in trade negotiations, the US dollar index has strengthened, leading to a continuous decline in gold prices. Amid the overall rise and fall of commodities, silver has also corrected. Before the new tariff deadline, there has been a peak in negotiations. After the US reached a trade agreement with Japan and a 15% tariff agreement with the EU (lower than previous expectations), risk aversion has cooled. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates, but the expectation of a July rate cut remains low, and the market is focusing on whether there will be a rate cut in September. The rebound of US CPI has further cooled the short - term rate cut expectation, and the market is watching this week's non - farm payrolls performance. Although US economic data shows that the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China has been continuously increasing its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the high price makes upward movement hesitant. Overall, gold and silver are likely to continue to show a volatile performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 770.68 and 772.84 respectively, with price drops of - 4.10 and - 4.16, and declines of - 0.53% and - 0.54%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9201.00 and 9218.00 respectively, with price drops of - 11.00 and - 16.00, and declines of - 0.12% and - 0.17%. [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 209675 and 112653 respectively, and the trading volumes are 256019 and 31873 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 398421 and 210928 respectively, and the trading volumes are 1203307 and 160014 respectively. [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 0.90 and - 1.26 respectively, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 15.00 and - 32.00 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 771.58 and 764.91 respectively, with price drops of - 2.03 and - 3.94, and declines of - 0.26% and - 0.51%. The previous closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3314.18, with a price drop of - 22.04 and a decline of - 0.66%. The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 9186.00, with a price drop of - 186.00 and a decline of - 1.98%. The previous closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 38.15, with a price increase of 0.02 and an increase of 0.04%. [2] - **Differences and Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510 and沪银2512 - 沪银2510 are 2.16 and 17 respectively. The spot gold - to - silver ratio is 84.00. The ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver are 7.24 and 7.49 respectively. [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and COMEX gold remain unchanged at 30,258 kilograms and 38,034,038 respectively. The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver and COMEX silver have increased by 21,015.00 kilograms and 1375881 respectively. [2] Related Variables - **Index and Yield Changes**: The current values of the US dollar index, Standard & Poor's Index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 98.6694, 6389.77, 4.42, 69.6, and 7.1835 respectively, with increases of 1.02%, 0.02%, 0.45%, 0.01%, and 0.21% respectively compared to the previous values. [2] Derivatives - **Position Changes**: The positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF have increased by 1.00 tons. The net positions of CFTC speculators in silver have increased by 481, while those in gold have decreased by 1451. [2] Market News - **Trade Negotiations**: On July 28 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, aiming to translate the important consensus of the two heads of state into specific policies and actions, implement the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks and the London framework, and promote the healthy development of China - US economic and trade relations. [3] - **Trump's Statements**: Trump may impose a unified tariff of 15% - 20% on imported goods from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the US. He is also disappointed with Putin and is shortening the 50 - day deadline for Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement. If no agreement is reached, the US will implement "secondary sanctions". [3] - **US Treasury Borrowing**: The US Treasury has significantly raised its estimate of federal borrowing for this quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling. It now expects the net borrowing from July to September to be $1.01 trillion, up from the April forecast of $554 billion. [3] - **European Central Bank**: European Central Bank hawkish official Kazimir said that the ECB is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again. Unless there is a major unexpected economic turn, the reason for action in September is not sufficient. [3]
韩国刚划下红线,美国来了个“下马威”!美财长放韩国鸽子,李在明对华加税,韩国开始选边站?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 12:46
Group 1 - The postponement of the "2+2" tariff negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. adds uncertainty to the already tense South Korea-U.S. relations, highlighting South Korea's difficult position in the complex international landscape [1] - South Korea is under pressure due to the U.S. imposing a tariff deadline of August 1, with the country eager to avoid a 25% comprehensive tariff, especially as Japan has already reached a tariff agreement with the U.S. [1] - South Korea has set two "red lines" in negotiations: not opening the rice and beef markets, as its grain self-sufficiency rate is low, with only 19.5% from 2021 to 2023, and zero self-sufficiency in wheat and corn [1] Group 2 - In 2024, South Korea imported $2.22 billion worth of U.S. beef, making it a major importer, but the U.S. is pushing to lift the ban on U.S. beef imports over 30 months, facing strong opposition from the South Korean agricultural sector [3] - South Korea's recent diplomatic interactions with the U.S. have seen multiple cancellations of meetings, indicating U.S. dissatisfaction with South Korea's proposals and an attempt to assert dominance in the bilateral relationship [3] Group 3 - On July 25, South Korea's Ministry of Trade announced a request for anti-dumping duties of 28.16% to 33.57% on carbon steel and hot-rolled steel from China, which raises questions about its timing amid ongoing U.S. tariff negotiations [5] - This anti-dumping investigation was initiated earlier in the year, but its announcement during critical negotiations suggests a strategic move to appease the U.S. while deflecting responsibility from the current government [5] Group 4 - South Korea is navigating a complex geopolitical environment, heavily reliant on U.S. military protection while also depending on China as its largest trading partner, with trade volumes exceeding $300 billion in 2024 [6] - The current administration appears to be leaning towards the U.S., as evidenced by recent actions such as rejecting China's invitation to a military parade and imposing tariffs on Chinese steel, signaling a shift in diplomatic posture [8] Group 5 - Over-reliance on the U.S. could jeopardize South Korea's relationship with China, which is crucial for its economic development, as many industries depend on Chinese raw materials [8] - The imposition of tariffs on Chinese steel may lead to increased costs for South Korean industries, potentially escalating trade tensions and undermining established economic cooperation [8]
德国政府发言人:我们认为有必要就钢铁和铝材问题进行进一步谈判。
news flash· 2025-07-28 09:43
Group 1 - The German government spokesperson emphasized the necessity for further negotiations regarding steel and aluminum issues [1]
中国是否接受与美国达成“次优协议”?中方回应
财联社· 2025-07-28 07:50
外交部发言人郭嘉昆7月28日主持例行记者会。路透社记者提问,关于贸易谈判,欧盟表示他们与美 国达成的协议并不理想,但却是他们能达成的最好的协议。那么,如果桌面上只有次优协议,中国 是否愿意接受?或者说,必要时中国是否会退出谈判? 对此,郭嘉昆表示:"关于你提到的美欧之间达成贸易协议,我想说的是,中方一贯主张各方通过平 等对话协商解决经贸分歧,维护良好的国际经贸合作环境,遵守世贸组织的规则。同时我们坚决反 对任何一方以牺牲中方的利益为代价,达成交易。" ...