Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - SCFIS has risen significantly, but some long - position holders have taken profits and left the market, leading to a weak and volatile market, which is in line with the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to add positions, and stop - losses should be set. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see. - In the short - term, risk - preference investors are advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500; in the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the correction to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction. - In the context of the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see or try lightly [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Shipping Indexes - **SCFIS**: On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% from the previous period [3]. - **SCFI**: On October 24, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European line was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period [4]. - **NCFI**: On October 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period [5]. - **CCFI**: On October 24, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [5]. b. Economic Data of Different Regions - **Eurozone**: In September, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [6]. - **China**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [6]. - **US**: In September, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary services PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [6]. c. Contract Information - On October 27, the main contract 2512 closed at 1775.0, with a decline of 2.79%, a trading volume of 27,700 lots, and an open interest of 28,000 lots, a decrease of 2254 lots from the previous day [7]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the President of Mexico, López Obrador, announced that U.S. President Trump has agreed to extend the deadline for trade negotiations between the two countries regarding trade, security, and immigration issues [2][3] - López Obrador mentioned that he had a brief and friendly conversation with Trump, during which they agreed that their officials would continue working and that Trump would not impose additional tariffs [3] - Both leaders believe that progress is being made and plan to continue discussions in the coming weeks to reach an agreement [3]

Group 1 - The Mexican President announced that the U.S. has agreed to extend the deadline for trade negotiations, focusing on trade, security, and immigration issues [4] - The conversation between the Mexican President and U.S. President Trump was described as friendly, with both parties agreeing to continue discussions and Trump not imposing additional tariffs [4] - Both leaders believe that progress is being made and plan to engage in further dialogue in the coming weeks to reach an agreement [4] Group 2 - The Russian Presidential Press Secretary stated that Russia is willing to improve relations with the U.S., but it must be based on its own interests [6] - The deployment of U.S. nuclear submarines near Russia in response to Russia's "Zircon" missile statements was highlighted as significant, but it reflects the U.S. President's viewpoint [6] - The Russian President's special representative's visit to the U.S. was described as a small step in a long journey, emphasizing the need for patience in bilateral dialogue [6][9] Group 3 - U.S. President Trump reported a "good meeting" with Brazilian President Lula, indicating ongoing negotiations regarding tariff policies [12] - The dialogue between the two leaders marks the first discussion since Trump returned to the White House, paving the way for negotiations on tariffs, investment, and economic cooperation [12] - The Brazilian government aims to eliminate tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Brazilian exports since August [12]

当地时间10月27日，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆表示，美国总统特朗普已同意再次延长两国就贸易、安全和移民 问题达成协议的最后期限。辛鲍姆表示，她和特朗普上周进行了一次非常简短且友好的通话，通话中双 方同意各自官员继续工作，特朗普不会加征额外关税。她表示，双方一致认为进展非常顺利，双方还同 意将在未来几周内进行对话，争取达成协议。 （文章来源：央视新闻客户端） ...

美东时间27日周一，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆在新闻发布会上表示，她与特朗普上周六简短通话，双方同意延长谈判时间，以便就仍在讨论的非关税贸易壁垒达成 协议。她表示，"目前不存在11月1日加征任何特别关税的情况"，双方接近达成协议，并同意在未来几周再次通话。特朗普原定11月1日将针对特定墨西哥商 品的芬太尼相关关税从25%提高至30%。 辛鲍姆发表上述言论后，墨西哥比索汇率升至日内高位，美元兑比索在美股早盘时段曾跌破18.40刷新日低，日内跌近0.5%。渣打银行经济学家Dan Pan表 示，有关谈判进展的评论"提振了市场对墨西哥在与美国贸易谈判中处于相对有利地位的乐观情绪，尤其考虑到其对美国市场的高度依赖"。 与此形成对比的是，特朗普本周一在从马来西亚去往日本的空军一号上明确表示，不想在访问亚洲期间与加拿大总理卡尼会面。按日程，卡尼和特朗普均将 出席本周在韩国举行的APEC峰会。特朗普说: "我不想见他（卡尼）。我们一段时间内不会与他们（加拿大）会谈。我对目前与加拿大的协议非常满意，我们会让它继续下去。" 美国总统特朗普对两个邻国的贸易谈判态度出现明显分化。他同意将美国与墨西哥达成贸易协议的截止期推迟数周，对加拿大则表示 ...

据央视新闻，当地时间10月27日，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆表示，美国总统特朗普已同意再次延长两国就贸易、安全和移民问题达成协议的最后期限。 辛鲍姆表示，她和特朗普上周进行了一次非常简短且友好的通话，通话中双方同意各自官员继续工作，特朗普不会加征额外关税。她表示，双方一致认为 进展非常顺利，双方还同意将在未来几周内进行对话，争取达成协议。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate and rebound. The previous price was oversold, and with the new cotton coming onto the market and China - US negotiations in progress, the bearish sentiment has eased [4]. - Currently, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The previous bearish news has been gradually digested, and the purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased. The futures main contract 01 continued to fluctuate and rebound [5]. - Bullish factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Bearish factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate and rebound. The national cotton output is expected to be 728000 tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to the ICAC September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/2026 season are both 25.5 million tons. The USDA September report shows that the output in the 2025/2026 season is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%; cotton yarn imports were 130000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October forecast for the 2025/2026 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continued to fluctuate and rebound [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Bullish factors: a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Bearish factors: ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: In the 2025/2026 season, the total global cotton output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. Different countries have different production, consumption, import, and inventory trends [13][14]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global output is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970000 tons, an increase of 36000 tons (+3.9%) [15]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for the 2025/2026 Season**: The output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the report regarding position data.

Core Insights - The India-US bilateral trade agreement appears to be nearing completion, with most issues reportedly agreed upon, but India emphasizes that any decision will prioritize national interests over external pressures [1][3][4] - Tariff issues are central to the negotiations, with the US imposing high tariffs on Indian exports, leading to a significant drop in India's exports to the US [4][7] - India is considering some concessions, such as relaxing import restrictions on corn and soybean meal, while firmly protecting its agricultural markets to safeguard local farmers [6][10] Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The US has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, severely limiting market access for Indian products [4] - India's exports to the US fell from $6.87 billion in August to $5.43 billion in September, a decrease of $1.4 billion in just one month [4] - India is unlikely to compromise on agricultural products, as approximately 60% of its population relies on agriculture, with 85% being small farmers [6][10] Energy Procurement Issues - The procurement of Russian oil remains a contentious topic, with the US pressuring India to reduce its purchases, but India maintains that its energy security is paramount [9][12] - Despite US sanctions on Russian oil producers, India has reduced its Russian oil imports from 1.2 million barrels per day in September to 800,000 barrels per day in October, which may be seen as a gesture towards the US [12] Conclusion on Negotiation Strategy - India's approach to the negotiations is cautious, balancing the need for trade agreements with the protection of domestic interests [13] - The potential for an agreement hinges on mutual concessions, particularly regarding tariffs and agricultural imports, with both parties needing to demonstrate goodwill for a successful outcome [13]

进入10月下旬之后，亚洲地区成为全球焦点，为一系列关键经贸、地区安全议程的兑现，以及政治博弈提供了舞台。 继今年初中泰缅联手之后，近期英美韩也开始打击当地的诈骗窝点。在缅甸，军方从10月16日开始打击位于缅泰边境妙瓦底地区的KK园区，上千人趁乱逃 离。 马来西亚首都吉隆坡于10月26日至28日举办第47届东盟峰会及相关峰会，议程包括东盟峰会、东盟与七个对话伙伴国（澳大利亚、中国、印度、日本、韩 国、俄罗斯、美国）的东盟+1峰会等。 据央视新闻报道，本次东盟峰会被视为近年来最重要的东南亚峰会，出席的领导人还包括中国国务院总理李强、美国总统特朗普、日本新任首相高市早苗、 韩国总统李在明、巴西总统卢拉等。 在此之前，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔已举行了磋商。双方就对等关税进一步延长暂 停期、芬太尼关税和芬太尼禁毒合作、进一步扩大贸易问题、美方301船舶收费相关措施等问题形成了初步共识。贝森特则表示，双方达成了非常实质性的 框架协议，美方不再考虑加征100%的关税。 另一方面，美国与马来西亚、柬埔寨、泰国和越南确定了新的贸易事项。四国将降低美国汽车、农产品的关 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions in copper on dips, buy aluminum on dips after pullbacks, hold a wait-and-see attitude or short nickel on rallies, range trade tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and PTA are expected to fluctuate; short the 01 contract of soda ash [1][21][23][34] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate at a low level; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; dates are expected to fluctuate [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short pigs on rallies, short eggs on rallies, corn is expected to fluctuate weakly, bean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to have limited corrections [1][40][42][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy changes [1][5][7] - It suggests specific trading strategies for each product, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling call options [1][7][8] - The report also highlights key factors to watch for each product, including macro data, policy changes, and supply and demand dynamics [22][24][25] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the long term. Consider buying on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate. Hold a wait-and-see attitude and pay attention to important financial policies [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment is bullish, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to tight supply [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying the RB2601 contract near 3000 [7] - **Glass**: Fundamental conditions are deteriorating, and the market is expected to be weak. Consider selling call options on the 01 contract [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate higher in the short term. Consider holding a small long position on dips and avoid chasing highs [10] - **Aluminum**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider taking profits on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments [12] - **Nickel**: Supply is expected to be abundant in the long term. Hold a wait-and-see attitude or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to fluctuate. Range trade with reference to the 12 contract's range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are expected to have support in the medium term but are in a short-term adjustment. Range trade and pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract is temporarily watched in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily watched for resistance at 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch the range of 6300 - 6700 [24][25] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch for support at 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's range is referenced at 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's operating range is referenced at 2230 - 2330 [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The L2601 contract is watched for support at 7000, and the PP2601 contract is watched for support at 6600 [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: Adopt a short strategy for the 01 contract [34][35][36] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive factors such as production and trade negotiations [37] - **PTA**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Watch the range of 4400 - 4700 [37][38] - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as quality and delivery costs [38] - **Dates**: Expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to price changes after the new season's centralized listing [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Prices are under pressure in the medium term. Adopt a short strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts and be cautious about bottom-fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [40][41][42] - **Eggs**: Prices are expected to rebound under pressure. Short on rallies for the 12 and 01 contracts and pay attention to factors such as culling and policies [42] - **Corn**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Adopt a short strategy for the 11 contract and watch for the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Bean Meal**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying on dips for the M2601 contract and use options to hedge risks [44][45][46] - **Oils**: Expected to have limited corrections. Wait for the correction to end and then go long for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]