Core Viewpoint - The net interest margin of Industrial Bank continues to decline, with a focus on maintaining stable interest income and managing asset quality amid a challenging operating environment [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Industrial Bank reported operating revenue of 161.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%, with the decline narrowing compared to the first half of the year [1]. - Net interest income fell by 0.56% year-on-year, while net fee and commission income increased by 3.79% [1][2]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 63.08 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.12% year-on-year [2]. Deposit and Loan Trends - Total deposits amounted to 5.83 trillion yuan, growing by 5.47% since the beginning of the year, with an interest rate of 1.71%, down 5 basis points from the first half [2]. - Total loans reached 5.99 trillion yuan, up 4.42% year-to-date, with corporate loans increasing by 7.54% and personal loans decreasing by 2.49% [2]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan balance was 64.56 billion yuan, an increase of 3.08 billion yuan from the end of the previous year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% [3]. - The bank reported a decrease in new non-performing assets and a lower generation rate compared to the previous year, indicating improved risk management [3][4]. Shareholder Activity - Significant shareholder activity has been noted, with major shareholders increasing their stakes in Industrial Bank, including the Fujian Provincial Finance Department and others [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy-A" with a target price of 7.03 CNY over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the bank's performance has shown improvement in growth rates compared to the mid-year report, driven primarily by the expansion of interest-earning assets and a notable increase in non-interest income [1][10]. - The bank's credit growth is robust, particularly in corporate loans, while retail lending remains resilient despite industry pressures [2][11]. - The bank's asset quality is maintained at a high level, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% and a sufficient provision coverage ratio of 240.21% [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Postal Savings Bank reported a revenue growth of 1.82% year-on-year, with a pre-provision profit increase of 8.16% and a net profit growth of 0.98% [1]. - The bank's total assets grew by 11.10% year-on-year, with a net increase of 415.1 billion CNY in the third quarter alone [1][2]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Corporate loans increased by 19.87% year-on-year, reflecting a strong performance in the corporate lending sector [2]. - Retail loans grew by 2.92% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average, with a focus on high-quality borrowers and core urban areas [2]. Interest Margin and Cost Management - The net interest margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.68%, showing a slight decline but remaining competitive within the industry [4][9]. - The bank has successfully reduced its cost of interest-bearing liabilities, contributing to a stable interest margin [9]. Non-Interest Income and Investment Performance - Non-interest income increased by 23.48% year-on-year, with significant contributions from investment gains and fees [10]. - The bank's investment strategy has proven effective, particularly in volatile market conditions, leading to improved investment returns [10]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to continue supporting key sectors such as small and micro enterprises while optimizing its loan portfolio [11]. - Revenue growth is projected at 1.43% for 2025, with net profit growth anticipated at 2.65% [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank [2][8]. Core Views - Changshu Bank's Q3 revenue growth is 8.2%, with a net profit growth of 12.8%. Interest income has accelerated quarter-on-quarter, while non-interest income has increased significantly by 35.3% year-on-year, driving revenue growth. The net interest margin for Q3 stands at 2.57%, only down 1 basis point from the first half of the year, maintaining a leading position in the industry. The non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio decreasing by 27 percentage points to 463%, indicating excellent asset quality. The integration of rural banks is progressing smoothly, and the bank is expanding its presence to create a second growth curve. As a pro-cyclical bank stock, Changshu Bank has a clear long-term development path. This year, it has implemented a mid-term dividend for the first time, with a payout ratio increased to 25.3%. Currently, the 2025 PB valuation is 0.73x and PE valuation is 5.4x, both at historical lows, indicating significant long-term value is undervalued [2][6][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, Changshu Bank's operating revenue grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 12.8%. The non-performing loan ratio remained flat at 0.76%, and the provision coverage ratio decreased by 27 percentage points to 463% [6][11]. Revenue Composition - The growth in operating revenue is driven by a 2.4% increase in net interest income and a substantial 35.3% rise in non-interest income. The bank's investment income has been affected by market fluctuations, leading to a 22.2% decline in Q3 investment income [11]. Asset Quality - The asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 463%. The bank has increased efforts in risk resolution and recovery of non-performing loans, leading to a stabilization in retail asset quality [11]. Growth Strategy - The integration of rural banks is advancing well, with several rural banks being restructured and opened this year. This expansion is aimed at creating a second growth curve for the bank [11]. Valuation Metrics - The current PB and PE valuations are at 0.73x and 5.4x respectively, indicating that the bank's long-term value is significantly undervalued compared to historical levels [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 10.40 CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady performance with a slight increase in net profit of 0.78% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, despite a revenue decline of 3.18% [2][4]. - The non-performing loan ratio has remained stable at 0.97% for six consecutive quarters, with a provision coverage ratio increasing to 340% [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 33%, translating to a dividend yield of approximately 5% [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating income of 19.83 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.18% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.57 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 0.78% [2][8]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of -3.1%, 4.4%, and 5.8% for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with net profit growth rates of 0.9%, 1.3%, and 4.0% for the same periods [2][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 1,487.81 billion CNY in 2024 to 1,888.15 billion CNY by 2027 [9][10]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.97% through 2025, with a slight decrease to 0.96% in 2026 and 0.95% in 2027 [11]. - The provision coverage ratio is projected to decrease from 352.34% in 2024 to 300.02% by 2027, indicating a robust risk management framework [11][12]. - The report highlights a decrease in the net interest margin to 1.34% in Q3 2025, primarily due to weak credit demand [7][11]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned in the market with a solid customer base and steady business development, particularly in sectors like technology and elder finance [2][4]. - The report anticipates significant market growth opportunities in the context of Shanghai's development initiatives, which could enhance the company's business expansion [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit growth rates have rebounded, with total revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 199.645 billion yuan and 69.994 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 1.80% and 1.90% [1] - The company's asset growth remains stable, with total assets increasing by 6.2% year-on-year to 15.50 trillion yuan as of September 2025 [2] - The net interest margin has narrowed its decline, with a reported net interest margin of 1.20% for the first nine months, down 1 basis point from the second quarter and 7 basis points from the previous year [3] - The overall asset quality is stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.26% as of September, showing improvement from June [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 199.645 billion yuan and net profit of 69.994 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.80% and 1.90% year-on-year, respectively [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 66.277 billion yuan, up 3.92% year-on-year, and net profit was 23.978 billion yuan, up 2.46% year-on-year [1] Asset Growth - As of September 2025, total assets reached 15.50 trillion yuan, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, with loans (excluding accrued interest) growing by 7.5% to 9.07 trillion yuan [2] - The company added 516.3 billion yuan in new credit in the first three quarters, with corporate loans increasing by 415.4 billion yuan [2] Interest Income and Non-Interest Income - The net interest income for the first three quarters was 128.648 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [3] - Non-interest income from fees and commissions was 29.398 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.15%, while other non-interest income surged by 25.4% to 25.585 billion yuan [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.26% as of September, down 2 basis points from June, and the provision coverage ratio increased to 209.97% [3] - The company’s core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 11.37%, slightly down by 0.05 percentage points from June [2] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted upwards, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 95.683 billion yuan, 98.849 billion yuan, and 103.224 billion yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 2.2%, 3.3%, and 4.4% [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Insights - The net interest margin for Q3 2025 is 1.59%, showing a slight decrease of 1 basis point compared to H1 2025, indicating resilience in the interest margin despite a minor decline in the yield on interest-earning assets [3] - The asset quality has improved, with the non-performing loan ratio decreasing by 5 basis points to 1.12% and the provision coverage ratio increasing by 9 percentage points to 365%, reflecting strong risk mitigation capabilities [3] - The company has increased its efforts in recognizing non-performing loans and managing risks, which may temporarily affect profit performance but is expected to lead to continued improvement in asset quality [3] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Based on Q3 2025 financial data, the forecasted growth rates for the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.7%, 8.3%, and 8.5% respectively, with projected BVPS of 12.05, 13.12, and 14.29 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to PB ratios of 0.58X, 0.53X, and 0.49X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price set at 8.19 yuan per share [4][6] Key Financial Metrics - As of 2023, the company's operating income is projected at 27,956 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -3.6% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 10,902 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [5] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 1,441,082 million yuan in 2023 to 1,852,998 million yuan by 2027 [13]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 邮储银行（601658.SH）2025 年三季报点评 优于大市 对公贷款增长快，业务格局更均衡 收入利润延续正增长。2025 年前三季度实现营业收入 2651 亿元，同比增长 1.8%，增速较上半年回升 0.3 个百分点；前三季度实现归母净利润 766 亿元， 同比增长 1.0%，增速较上半年回升 0.2 个百分点。收入和净利润延续上半年 正增长的态势。前三季度年化加权平均 ROE10.7%，同比下降 1.1 个百分点。 资产规模较快增长，对公贷款增长强劲。公司三季末总资产同比增长 11.1% 至18.6万亿元，较年初增长8.9%。三季度末客户存款较年初增长6.1%至16.2 万亿元，贷款总额较年初增长 8.3%至 9.7 万亿元。其中公司贷款较年初增长 17.9%，主要是加大对先进制造、绿色金融、科技金融、普惠金融等领域的 信贷投放力度，零售与对公"双轮驱动"格局更加均衡。个人贷款较年初增 长 1.9%，票据贴现较年初略微压降。公司报告期内完成资本补充，三季度末 核心一级资本充足率 10.65%，较年初提升 1.09 个百分点。 净息差下降。前三季度日均净息差 1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The six major banks in China reported a combined net profit exceeding 1 trillion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating stable profit growth and improving asset quality, while facing pressure on net interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Growth - The six major banks achieved a total net profit of 1.07 trillion yuan, demonstrating strong profitability despite efforts to support the real economy [2]. - Agricultural Bank led the growth with a 3.03% year-on-year increase in net profit, while other banks showed varying growth rates: 1.90% for Bank of Communications, 1.08% for China Bank, and lower rates for Postal Savings Bank, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank [2]. - All six banks reported year-on-year increases in operating income, with China Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank both exceeding 2% growth [2]. Group 2: Asset Quality Improvement - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for all six banks decreased compared to the end of the previous year, enhancing their risk resilience [4]. - Postal Savings Bank had the best asset quality with an NPL ratio of 0.94%, while other banks maintained NPL ratios between 1% and 2% [4]. - Agricultural Bank had the highest provision coverage ratio at 295.08%, providing a solid buffer against potential credit risks [5]. Group 3: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The banking industry continues to face downward pressure on net interest margins, with Postal Savings Bank reporting a margin of 1.68%, despite being the highest among the six banks [5][6]. - The overall net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% for Q2 2025, reflecting a decline from previous periods [6]. Group 4: Strategies for Margin Stabilization - Banks are focusing on optimizing asset structures and reducing costs on the liability side to address the pressure on net interest margins [7]. - There is a strategic emphasis on supporting key sectors such as manufacturing and green development, with Postal Savings Bank increasing its green loan balance significantly [7]. - Analysts expect a stabilization in net interest margins in the coming quarters, aided by policy support and proactive industry transformation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the steady growth in revenue and profit for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank in the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on the bank's income sources, loan and deposit growth, and asset quality improvements [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Summary - In the first three quarters of 2025, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank achieved operating income of 21.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] - Net interest income was 17.85 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year, accounting for 82.6% of total operating income [1] - Net fee income decreased by 16.7% year-on-year, while other non-interest income fell by 22.7% [1] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of Q3 2025, total loans amounted to 777.97 billion yuan, representing an 8.8% year-on-year increase [2] - The breakdown of loans includes corporate loans at 418.73 billion yuan (up 17.1%), personal loans at 303.68 billion yuan (up 3.6%), and bills at 55.56 billion yuan (down 14.0%) [2] - Total deposits reached 1.03 trillion yuan, a 9.3% year-on-year increase, with corporate deposits at 141.4 billion yuan (up 15.8%) and personal deposits at 883.02 billion yuan (up 8.9%) [2] Asset Quality Improvement - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.12%, a decrease of 5 basis points from the previous quarter [2] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 364.82%, an increase of 9.24 percentage points [2] Investment Recommendations - The bank is projected to have a price-to-book ratio of 0.61X in 2025, 0.57X in 2026, and 0.53X in 2027 [3] - Revenue growth is forecasted at 0.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, with net profit growth of 5.4%, 4.8%, and 4.0% respectively [3] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.07 yuan in 2025, 1.12 yuan in 2026, and 1.16 yuan in 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue and a positive turnaround in net profit for Q3 2025, indicating stable growth in lending and a supportive liability structure for interest margins [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue increased by 0.7% year-on-year, compared to a 0.8% increase in H1 2025 [1] - Q3 2025 net profit rose by 1.1% year-on-year, contrasting with a 0.9% decline in H1 2025 [1] - The annualized net interest margin for Q3 2025 increased by 2 basis points to 1.24% [1] - Annualized asset yield decreased by 9 basis points to 2.76%, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities fell by 11 basis points to 1.67% [1] Loan and Deposit Growth - Interest-earning assets grew by 10.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with loans increasing by 8.9% [1] - Corporate loans (including bills) rose by 12.6%, while retail loans grew by 1.2% [1] - Interest-bearing liabilities increased by 10.1% year-on-year, with deposits up by 8.3% [1] Credit Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.24% in Q3 2025 [2] - The NPL generation rate increased by 7 basis points year-on-year to 0.54% [2] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 79 basis points to 196.6%, with the loan-to-provision ratio at 2.43% [2] Sector Performance - In H1 2025, corporate credit showed good growth in public finance and manufacturing, while retail maintained positive growth [1] - The NPL ratio for corporate loans decreased by 6 basis points to 1.18%, while the retail NPL ratio increased by 16 basis points to 1.02% [2][3] Capital Adequacy - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased by 1 basis point to 12.58% [3] Investment Recommendation - The company is recommended for stable growth, with projected price-to-book ratios of 0.71X, 0.62X, and 0.58X for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, and price-to-earnings ratios of 7.45X, 6.66X, and 6.57X [3] - The company is characterized as a state-owned bank with stable operations and asset quality, presenting a high margin of safety in valuation and high dividend yield [3]