华西宏观 （四）票据市场：利率转为上行，大行转为净卖出 截止11月21日，1M票据较前一周上行28bp至1.08%，3M上行18bp至0.58%，6M上行14bp至0.77%。在此 期间（11月17-20日），大行净卖出235亿元，11月累计净买入774亿元（去年同期累计净买入2058亿 元）。 （五）政府债：11月24-28日，净缴款2237亿元 （一）概况：税期，资金面起波澜 11月17-21日，资金面波澜再起，周初（17-18日）受税期、政府债缴款及北交所打新等因素影响，资金 面显著承压，R001迅速攀升至1.57%，R007也升至1.53%。周三起，随着央行持续加力投放，且税期走 款即将结束，资金利率迎来下行。直至周五，资金利率才回归合理定价，R001回落至1.39%，低于 OMO利率，R007也逐步下行至1.50%水平。 （二）展望：跨月周，资金面风浪依旧未平 下周（11月24-28日）进入跨月周，资金面风浪依旧未平。周一（24日）起，拆借7天利率可跨月。参考 今年二季度以来季中月（5月、8月）资金利率在跨月周的变化情况，R007最大上行幅度分别为11、 8bp，而R001多在跨月当日显著上行，幅度 ...

Group 1 - The central bank will have a total of 16,760 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week [1] - The reverse repos maturing from Monday to Friday are 2,830 billion yuan, 4,075 billion yuan, 3,105 billion yuan, 3,000 billion yuan, and 3,750 billion yuan respectively [1] - On Tuesday, there will be 9,000 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing, and on Friday, 3,000 billion yuan of 182-day buyout reverse repos will mature [1]

点评：央行开展3000亿元7天期逆回购操作显示其积极调控市场流动性，以应对短期资金压力和稳定市 场利率。操作利率维持不变表明央行对当前经济环境持中性态度。 NO.2 中国银行回应股价创历史新高 据中证金牛座，11月20日，银行板块表现强势，中国银行涨超4%，股价再创历史新高。针对股价异 动，中国银行董事会办公室投资者关系团队相关工作人员表示："公司基本面未发生重大变化，目前正 持续关注股价波动情况。此次股价上涨，一方面得益于银行板块整体上涨趋势的带动，并非我行个例； 另一方面，公司三季报披露的主要经营数据保持稳健，基本面支撑下股价得到合理反映。" |2025年11月21日星期五| NO.1央行开展3000亿元7天期逆回购操作 11月20日，央行开展3000亿元7天期逆回购操作，投标量3000亿元，中标量3000亿元，操作利率为 1.40%，与此前持平。当日有1900亿元7天期逆回购到期。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） NO.3农发行与建设银行签订全面合作协议 11月19日，中国农业发展银行（简称"农发行"）与中国建设银行股份有限公司（简称"建设银行"）在京 签订全面合作协议。双方采用"总行+分行"签约形式，13 ...

Core Points - The central bank conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a 7-day maturity at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous rates [1] - A total of 190 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today [1] Group 1 - The central bank's reverse repurchase operation aims to manage liquidity in the financial system [1] - The interest rate for the operation remains stable, indicating a consistent monetary policy stance [1] - The maturity of 190 billion yuan in reverse repos reflects ongoing liquidity management efforts by the central bank [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 310.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40% on November 19, 2025 [1] Summary by Category Reverse Repo Operation Details - The operation was conducted with a total bid amount of 310.5 billion yuan, which was also the amount awarded [1] - The interest rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase operation was set at 1.40% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue its volatile pattern with support at the bottom and pressure on the upside. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and a new driving force is awaited for the index to rise further [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.53% with a 1.66bp increase, DR007 at 1.52% with a 0.03bp increase, GC001 at 1.69% with a 35.50bp increase, GC007 at 1.56% with a 5.50bp increase, SHBOR 3M at 1.58% unchanged, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% unchanged, 1 - year treasury at 1.40% with a - 0.10bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.54% unchanged, 10 - year treasury at 1.80% with a 0.05bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.13% with a - 1.00bp change [3]. - **Open - Market Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 1.122 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan. This week, 1.122 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature on Thursday [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 0.65% to 4568, the SSE 50 fell 0.3% to 3003, the CSI 500 fell 1.17% to 7151, and the CSI 1000 fell 1% to 7448. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.9261 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed lower, with Internet services, cultural media, and education sectors leading the gains, and coal, battery, steel, fertilizer, energy metals, shipping ports, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume increased by 6.6% to 121,863, and its open interest increased by 2.2% to 278,688; IH volume decreased by 4.3% to 54,759, and its open interest decreased by 3.4% to 97,691; IC volume increased by 15% to 134,440, and its open interest increased by 3.3% to 254,019; IM volume increased by 10.4% to 217,767, and its open interest increased by 19% to 362,020 [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF's premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were - 3.75%, 3.40%, 2.96%, and 3.43% respectively; IH's were - 2.36%, 2.12%, 0.88%, and 1.07% respectively; IC's were - 3.03%, 11.73%, 10.63%, and 11.05% respectively; IM's were 4.08%, 15.22%, 13.31%, and 12.89% respectively [7].

人民财讯11月19日电，央行今日开展3105亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平。今 日有1955亿元7天期逆回购到期。 ...

人民财讯11月18日电，央行公开市场今日开展4075亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，与前次持 平。今日4038亿元逆回购到期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic market interest rates are on an upward trend, influenced by strong short-term funding demand and a rebound in medium to long-term rates [1] Interest Rate Summary - As of November 17, the overnight, 1-week, 2-week, 6-month, and 9-month Shibor rates are reported at 1.508%, 1.514%, 1.55%, 1.62%, and 1.64% respectively, showing increases of 2.9, 3.6, 5.8, 0.15, and 0.1 basis points compared to November 10 [1] - The 3-month and 1-year Shibor rates remain unchanged at 1.52% and 1.65% respectively, while the 1-month Shibor rate decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.52% [1] Liquidity and Policy Outlook - A total of 1.12 trillion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature this week, with the central bank conducting a 283 billion yuan reverse repo operation yesterday, indicating a clear stance to support liquidity and stabilize interest rate fluctuations [1] - October's domestic social financing and new RMB loan data showed average performance, with an overall decline in financing demand, suggesting a higher probability of weak interest rate market conditions [1] - Year-end policy announcements are expected to be frequent, prompting investors to closely monitor changes in the policy landscape [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On Monday, the RB2601 contract rebounded with reduced positions. The People's Bank of China conducted an 800 - billion - yuan buy - out reverse repurchase operation on the 17th, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan in November. The weekly output of rebar continued to decline, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 43.85%. Inventory has decreased for several consecutive weeks, and the increase in futures rebar prices has driven up spot trading. Most steel mills have announced blast furnace maintenance plans, and positive macro - level expectations have boosted market confidence. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The market may be oscillating strongly, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,097 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the position volume was 1,729,748 lots, down 107,385 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 73,835 lots, up 6,420 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. - The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 108,272 tons, down 3,655 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 205 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,354 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. - The price in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,380 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The basis of the RB main contract was 173 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 151.2592 million tons, up 2.3111 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 360,300 tons, down 1,200 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2215 million tons, down 44,100 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.1666 million tons, down 33,400 tons. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.79%, down 0.36 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.82%, up 1.03 percentage points. - The rebar output of sample steel mills was 2 million tons, down 85,400 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate was 43.85%, down 1.87 percentage points. - The rebar inventory in sample steel mills was 1.6042 million tons, down 64,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.1575 million tons, down 99,500 tons. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 2.08 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons. - The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons; the net export of steel products was 9.279 million tons, down 641,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.70%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 14.70%, down 0.80 percentage points. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20 percentage points. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.52939 billion square meters, down 43.59 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 490.61 million square meters, down 36.62 million square meters. - The unsold area of commercial housing was 396.45 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have been fully launched, targeting Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and several central enterprises, with an inspection period of one month. - Many places in Henan and Hebei have lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather [2].