Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight strengthening with most interbank bond yields declining by around 1 basis point, while the central bank's net injection was 169.4 billion yuan, leading to a general decrease in funding rates. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a continued need for a loose monetary environment into 2026, and potential for flexible use of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1][6]. Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase for most contracts, with the 10-year main contract rising by 0.11% to 108.035. The yields for various government bonds also decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.95 basis points to 1.8475% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.20% to 516.90 points, with a trading volume of 90.616 billion yuan. Notable gainers included Jin 05 Convertible Bond and Guo Wei Convertible Bond, which increased by 20.00% and 15.15%, respectively [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down by 4.33 basis points to 4.132%. Similar downward trends were observed in the Asian and Eurozone markets, with Japanese and European bond yields also declining [3][4]. Primary Market - The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.6675% and 1.9086%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.03 and 4.11. The Export-Import Bank's financial bonds had winning yields of 1.4387% and 1.7481%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.63 and 6.39 [5]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 179.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 169.4 billion yuan for the day. Additionally, a 900 billion yuan 6-month buyout reverse repurchase operation was carried out, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased operations [6]. - The Shibor rates for various tenors showed a collective decline, with the overnight rate down by 1.6 basis points to 1.374% [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Institutions highlighted the necessity of loose monetary policy to address the structural issues in the economy, emphasizing the need for counter-cyclical tools to facilitate asset balance sheet recovery. The central bank's actions are seen as supportive of government bond issuance and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply [8].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the capital market has shown a slight contraction, with the weighted average rate of DR001 rising to around 1.30%. The central bank's open - market operations have multiple large - scale reverse repurchase maturities this week. [4] - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index ended its 17 - day winning streak, and the trading volume of the three major stock markets reached a record high. The industry sectors had more decliners than gainers. [5] - After the recent strong and volume - expanding breakthrough of the stock index, the market capital is abundant, opening up a new upward space. With the positive feedback of macro - fundamental data, it is expected that the stock index will continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment. In the long run, the stock index in 2026 is expected to rise. It is recommended that investors mainly go long and give priority to far - month contracts. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.39, up 6.47bp; DR007 closed at 1.55, up 5.72bp; GC001 closed at 1.47, down 11bp; GC007 closed at 1.56, down 3bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60, up 0.20bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50, unchanged. The 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.24, up 0.25bp; the 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.60, up 0.25bp; the 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.86, down 1.05bp; the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.19, up 1bp. [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The bid volume, winning bid volume were 358.6 billion yuan each. With 16.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing on the same day, the net investment on the day was 342.4 billion yuan. [3] 3.2 Stock Index and Futures - **Stock Index Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4761, down 0.60%; the SSE 50 closed at 3133, down 0.34%; the CSI 500 closed at 8143, down 1.28%; the CSI 1000 closed at 8203, down 1.84%. [5] - **Futures Closing Prices and Changes**: IF current - month contract closed at 4766, down 0.5%; IH current - month contract closed at 3137, down 0.2%; IC current - month contract closed at 8173, down 1.2%; IM current - month contract closed at 8234, down 1.9%. [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: IF trading volume was 172,729, up 10.7%; IF open interest was 307,410, up 1.8%; IH trading volume was 67,378, up 24.7%; IH open interest was 94,858, up 3.4%; IC trading volume was 212,314, up 4.4%; IC open interest was 317,086, up 2.0%; IM trading volume was 305,102, up 2.2%; IM open interest was 401,618, down 0.4%. [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: Different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM have different premium and discount rates. For example, IF current - month contract had a premium/discount rate of 2.25%, and some contracts had significant discount rates. [7]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2603 contract rising 0.07% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally increased, and the yields of key - term Treasury bonds also fluctuated. The market risk preference increased, suppressing the bond market sentiment, and the prices of Treasury bond futures were generally weak under the stock - bond seesaw effect [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of TS2603, TF2603, T2603, and TL2603 increased, while those of TS2606, TF2606, T2606, and TL2606 showed different changes. The T2603 contract rose 0.07%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed, with the open interest of T2603 and TF2603 decreasing [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: The cross - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts changed, with some spreads widening and some narrowing [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates generally increased. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 1.2bp, DR007 rate rose 0.92bp, and GC007 rate rose 5.4bp [2]. - **Key - term Treasury Bond Yields in China**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield decreased 1.38bp to 1.87%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 45.72bp [2]. - **Key - term Treasury Bond Yields Overseas**: The 10Y Treasury bond yield in the US rose 1bp, that in Germany rose 0bp, and that in Japan rose 1.3bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 12th, the central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36.1 billion yuan after 50 billion yuan of repurchases matured [3]. - **Policy Announcements**: The State Council issued the "2026 First Batch of Key Matters List for 'Efficiently Completing One Thing'", and four departments jointly released work methods for government investment funds [3]. - **International News**: The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which led to concerns about the Fed's independence and an increase in the prices of gold and silver [3]. Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On January 12th, most money market interest rates in China increased, and US Treasury bond yields also rose collectively [3]. Comment and Strategy - **Market Analysis**: The central bank's net investment, rising short - term interest rates, improved economic data, and increased market risk preference all put pressure on the bond market. Although there are expectations of loose policies at the beginning of the year, the prices of Treasury bond futures are generally weak under the stock - bond seesaw effect [3].

1月12日央行开展861亿元7天期逆回购操作 中新网1月12日电 据央行网站消息，2026年1月12日中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了861亿元7天 期逆回购操作。具体情况如下： | 期限 | 操作利率 | 逆回购操作情况 投标量 | 中标量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7天 | 1.40% | 861亿元 | 861亿元 | 截图来自央行网站 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：郭晋嘉 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 340 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 9, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 340 billion yuan for the day [1] - From January 5 to 9, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 12,214 billion yuan, indicating a tightening of liquidity [1] - Upcoming reverse repos totaling 1,387 billion yuan are set to mature from January 12 to 16, along with 6,000 billion yuan of buyout reverse repos maturing on Tuesday [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains stable, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate slightly rising to around 1.27% [3] - Overnight rates in the anonymous click (X-repo) system are reported at 1.25%, with supply exceeding 100 billion yuan [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 3.65% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is approximately 1.63%, up by 1 basis point from the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show a decline: 30-year main contract down 0.07%, 10-year down 0.02%, 5-year down 0.03%, and 2-year down 0.03% [11] Group 5: Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, the highest increase since March 2023, driven mainly by rising food prices [12] - The core CPI increased by 1.2%, maintaining above 1% for four consecutive months [12] - The PPI also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking three consecutive months of growth [12] Group 6: Real Estate Financing Policies - Recent policy guidance from regulatory authorities allows projects on the financing coordination mechanism "white list" to extend loans with certain conditions, potentially allowing for a 5-year extension [12] Group 7: Land Transaction Data - The China Index Academy reported that the planned building area for residential land transactions in 300 cities for 2025 is 620 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, with the total land transfer fees at 2.3 trillion yuan, down 10.6% [13] - Despite the overall decline, high-value land parcels in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou continue to see competitive bidding, with the top 10 real estate companies accounting for 50.5% of land acquisition amounts [13] Group 8: Global Economic Developments - U.S. President Trump announced a plan to purchase 200 billion dollars in mortgage-backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, aimed at lowering mortgage rates [15] - The Bank of Japan may adjust its economic growth forecast due to government stimulus measures, with officials indicating no preset stance on interest rate hikes [16]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general decline, with only Shanghai aluminum rising by 1.42%. Shanghai nickel led the decline with a drop of 2.67%, while other metals fell by less than 1% [1] - In the external market, base metals collectively rose, with London tin increasing by 1.84%, nickel by 1.72%, copper by 1.17%, and aluminum by 1.16% [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rising by 0.53% and silver by 2.69%, while domestic gold increased by 0.68% and silver fell by 0.9% [1] Black Metals - The black metal sector showed mixed results, with stainless steel rising by 0.25%, while rebar and hot-rolled coil both fell by over 1%, with rebar down 1.1% and hot-rolled coil down 1.02% [1] - In the coking coal sector, coking coal fell by 0.71% and coking coke dropped by 1.83% [1] Macro Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, with food prices increasing by 1.1% and non-food prices by 0.8% [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5] Renewable Energy - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced guidelines for industrial green microgrid construction, mandating that newly built renewable energy generation facilities should have a self-consumption ratio of at least 60% [6][7] E-commerce Logistics - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the e-commerce logistics index for December 2025 was 113.6 points, reflecting a 0.5-point increase from the previous month [8] - The increase in the index was driven by improvements in supply-side metrics, while demand remained stable [8] Real Estate Financing - Recent policy guidance allows for the extension of loans for projects on the "white list" of the real estate financing coordination mechanism for up to five years, a significant increase from the previous maximum of two and a half years [9] Currency and Oil Market - The US dollar index rose by 0.15% to 99.01, amid concerns over labor demand and upcoming economic data releases [11] - Oil prices increased, with WTI rising by 0.93% and Brent by 0.97%, driven by geopolitical concerns regarding supply disruptions [12]

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of January 6, 2026, is 1.13, an increase of 0.05 from December 30, 2025, driven by a rise in the coastal coal freight index [1][3] - The "import dry bulk freight index" remained stable at 1.15, indicating consistent shipping costs [1][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to expansion for the first time since April 2025 [17] - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors saw PMIs of 52.5%, 50.4%, and 50.4%, respectively, all above the neutral line [17] - New orders index rose from 49.2% to 50.8%, and the production index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7% [2][17] - The procurement volume index also returned to expansion at 51.1%, indicating increased demand for raw materials [2][17] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for December 2025 is 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion [18] - The construction and service sectors reported indices of 52.8% and 49.7%, respectively, with construction rebounding after four months of contraction [18] Price Trends - The producer price index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, while the main raw material purchase price index remains high at 53.1% [2][17] Financial Market Indicators - The central bank's net cash withdrawal through open market operations was 695.9 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [5] - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 1 basis point to 1.33%, while the seven-day repo rate fell by 66 basis points to 1.49% [8] Real Estate Market - In the week ending January 6, 2026, new and second-hand home transaction areas in first-tier cities fell by 48.57% and 38.95%, respectively [30] - Second-tier cities saw a decline of 59.67% and 23.04% in transaction areas for new and second-hand homes [30] Consumer Behavior - The average daily box office for movies reached 154 million yuan, an increase of 78.64 million yuan from the previous week [32]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - China's foreign exchange reserve reached a new high since December 2015, mainly due to the continuous rise in the trade balance The central bank's gold holdings have been increasing for 14 consecutive months, indicating a trend of diversification of official reserve assets Globally, central banks have been accelerating gold purchases since 2022, and although the purchase volume in 2025 decreased compared to the previous three years, it is still at a high level historically Gold is squeezing the share of the US dollar as a central bank reserve asset [2] - The central bank conducted a 1100 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation on January 8, which was an equal - amount hedge of the maturing repurchase and the third consecutive month of equal - amount renewal The central bank quickly reduced the OMO stock at the beginning of the month, and the inter - bank capital price increased slightly while the exchange price decreased slightly [3] 3. Content Summary by Category 3.1 Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves - As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserve was $3357.9 billion, a month - on - month increase of $1.15 billion, reaching a new high since December 2015 The gold reserve was 74.15 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces, with 14 consecutive months of increase [2] - From 2022 to 2024, global central banks had the highest net gold purchases in history, with 1080 tons in 2022, 1050 tons in 2023, and 1089 tons in 2024 In 2025, the purchase volume decreased to 634 tons but remained at a high level compared to historical data [2] 3.2 Central Bank Operations - On January 8, the central bank conducted a 1100 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation to offset the maturing repurchase of the same amount It was the third consecutive month of equal - amount renewal The central bank quickly reduced the OMO stock at the beginning of the month, and the inter - bank capital price increased slightly while the exchange price decreased slightly [3] 3.3 Stock Market Performance - On January 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 2854.141 billion yuan, an increase of 47.634 billion yuan from the previous trading day The ChiNext Index rose 0.31% and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.99% [4] - Internationally, the German DAX Index, South Korea's Composite Index, Wind All - A Index, and NASDAQ Index led the gains, with increases of 1.6%, 0.92%, 0.57%, and 0.19% respectively The Hang Seng Tech Index, Nikkei 225 Index, and Dow Jones Industrial Average led the losses, with decreases of 1.49%, 1.06%, and 0.94% respectively [4] - The closing yield of the 10 - year China Treasury Bond was 1.8988%, a change of +1.75BP The average daily prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 were 1.3365% and 1.5323% respectively [4] 3.4 Sector Performance - The top - performing sectors were the comprehensive, coal, electronics, and communication sectors, with increases of 3.86%, 2.47%, 1.25%, and 1.24% respectively The underperforming sectors were the petroleum and petrochemical, non - bank finance, beauty care, and computer sectors, with decreases of 1.73%, 1.13%, 1.03%, and 0.81% respectively [4] 3.5 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index closed at 98.7426, up 0.14% The US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9935, and the offshore RMB depreciated by 106 basis points [5] - The latest value of the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 1.899, a change of 1.75BP The latest value of DR007 was 1.462, a change of 2.99BP The latest value of the US dollar to offshore RMB was 6.9935, a change of 0.18% The latest value of the US dollar index was 98.74, a change of 0.14% [14] 3.6 A - share Market Overview - The total market capitalization of A - shares was 112.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.53 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year The cumulative trading volume this year was 8.28 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 2760.361 billion yuan The PE (TTM) was 22.99x and the PB (MRQ) was 6.06x The margin trading balance decreased compared to a month ago [18] - Different A - share indices showed different performances on January 7, with the Wind All - A Index rising 0.19%, the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.06%, etc [18] 3.7 Industry Performance - The top three sectors in terms of daily increase were the comprehensive, coal, and electronics sectors [22] - The top three sectors in terms of daily net inflow of funds were the communication, banking, and light manufacturing sectors The top three sectors in terms of net inflow of funds at the end of the day were the electronics, national defense and military industry, and non - bank finance sectors [24] - The top three themes in terms of increase were semiconductor equipment, lithography machines, and the SMIC industrial chain [24]

人民财讯1月8日电，央行公开市场开展99亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，与前次持平。 ...

Monetary Policy - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 162 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and winning amount of 162 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, 312.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.3 billion yuan [1] Market Liquidity - The interbank market liquidity remains loose, with the weighted average rate of DR001 slightly rising to around 1.26% [2] - Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system are abundant at 1.25%, while non-bank institutions' pledged certificates and credit bonds are quoted at 1.40%-1.45% [2] Bond Market - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is around 1.63%, up more than 1 basis point from the previous day [8] - Major interbank bond yields have generally risen, with the 30-year futures contract down 0.31%, the 10-year down 0.13%, the 5-year down 0.11%, and the 2-year down 0.05% [10] International Context - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 3.75% [4] Corporate Actions - China Gas Holdings Limited has initiated the issuance of two panda bonds, marking the first issuance for 2026 [12] - The panda bond market has rapidly expanded, with net financing in 2025 reaching a new high, pushing the total market size beyond 420 billion yuan [12]