Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The passage of the temporary appropriation bill by the US Senate has boosted investors' optimism in the non - ferrous metals market. The macro - environment has repeated expectations but overall remains stable. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions support base metal prices, and prices will continue to fluctuate. There are opportunities for aluminum ingot price increases and low - buying opportunities for copper and tin. In the long term, with potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin, the prices of these metals are expected to rise [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Market Analysis - **Macro - environment**: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to avoid a government shutdown until January 30, 2026. The 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions are out, increasing the expectation of economic - stabilizing policies. The Fed cut interest rates in October and will end the balance - sheet lock - up process in December, but Powell said a rate cut in December is uncertain [1]. - **Supply - demand situation**: The raw material supply remains tight and is spreading to the smelting end. Overseas aluminum smelting faces potential disruptions. Terminal demand is slightly weak, with a decline in automobile sales growth in October and an expanded decline in air - conditioner production schedules from November to December. The current supply - demand of base metals is slightly weak, but there are expectations of tight supply [1]. 2. Individual Metal Analysis Copper - **View**: Copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized as inventories decline. - **Information analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the decision on further rate cuts in December is uncertain. The US financial system's liquidity may still be deteriorating. In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month by 2.94 tons (2.62%), and increased year - on - year by 9.63%. As of November 10, copper inventories dropped by 0.74 tons to 19.59 tons. - **Main logic**: Macro factors and tight liquidity in the US money market led to a short - term adjustment in copper prices. On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions increased, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling rose, leading to a decline in production. On the demand side, copper spot turned to a premium, and inventory started to decline, indicating increased downstream purchasing willingness. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the medium - to - long term due to supply constraints and disruptions [7][8]. Alumina - **View**: The fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. - **Main logic**: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Although there are some fluctuations in high - cost production capacity and environmental factors cause disruptions, the supply contraction is not obvious, and the inventory is still increasing strongly in China [9]. Aluminum - **View**: Aluminum prices are fluctuating at a high level as inventories accumulate. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts increased. Some overseas aluminum plants have extended their operations, and China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased in October. - **Main logic**: The macro - environment is volatile. On the supply side, domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and there are marginal disruptions overseas. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has passed, and the terminal demand is stable. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong. In the medium term, the price center may continue to rise [10][11][12]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Aluminum alloy prices are fluctuating at a high level as scrap aluminum supply remains tight. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the automobile sales decreased slightly in October. - **Main logic**: The cost of scrap aluminum is strongly supported. On the supply side, there are risks of production cuts in some alloy plants. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement, and the warehouse receipts are increasing. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong. In the medium term, prices are expected to fluctuate due to uncertain policies and raw material disruptions [13][15]. Zinc - **View**: Zinc prices are fluctuating at a high level as the export window opens. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were negative. As of November 10, the zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. A mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining. - **Main logic**: The macro - environment is optimistic. On the supply side, the short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the smelting profit is good, with high production. The export window has opened, relieving domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, the domestic consumption is entering the off - season. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [16]. Lead - **View**: Lead prices are fluctuating as social inventories accumulate slightly. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of lead ingots increased slightly. The social inventory and warehouse receipts increased. - **Main logic**: On the supply side, the profit of secondary lead smelting increased, and the production increased. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery plants resumed production, and the demand is in the peak season. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [17][18]. Nickel - **View**: Nickel prices are fluctuating as the current supply - demand is loose. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia cracked down on illegal nickel mining, and there were developments in mining governance. - **Main logic**: Market sentiment dominates the price. The supply of nickel ore is loose, the production of intermediate products has recovered, and the inventory has accumulated. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [19][20]. Stainless Steel - **View**: Stainless steel prices are fluctuating and rising as warehouse receipts continue to decline. - **Information analysis**: The stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of nickel - iron and chromium decreased. The Indonesian government allocated funds for mining and smelting projects. - **Main logic**: The cost support for steel prices is weakening. The production of stainless steel increased in October, but the downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited. The social inventory increased slightly, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [21]. Tin - **View**: Tin prices are fluctuating at a high level as the Shanghai tin inventory continues to decline. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of tin increased. - **Main logic**: There are continuous supply disruptions in tin. The production increase in Wa State may be postponed, and there are problems in other production areas. The domestic tin ore supply is tight, and the processing fee is low. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [23]. 3. Market Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index), and PPI commodity index of the non - ferrous metals market all showed increases, with the increase rates being 0.65%, 0.71%, 0.48%, and 0.37% respectively. The non - ferrous metals index increased by 0.58% on that day, 0.85% in the past 5 days, 1.60% in the past month, and 7.76% since the beginning of the year [144][145].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in gold investment, highlighting the continuous increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China and the implications of the U.S. government shutdown on economic forecasts [3]. Market Analysis - The world's largest gold ETF held 1,042.06 tons of gold as of November 7, with an increase of 1.71 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 2.86 tons for the month [2]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, with October showing continued growth [3]. - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 38 days, affecting federal employee salaries and leading to concerns about a potential slowdown in GDP growth for Q4 [3]. - Wall Street analysts warn that the combination of three years of quantitative tightening and significant government debt issuance is pushing bank reserves into a precarious situation [3]. Economic Indicators - A New York Fed survey indicates that 71% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next year, double the rate from the previous year [3]. - Short-term inflation expectations have decreased, while consumer confidence in the U.S. is nearing record lows, contributing to a weaker dollar and increased expectations for interest rate cuts [3]. - The price of spot gold in Hong Kong rose to $3,999.68 per ounce amid these economic conditions [3]. Technical Analysis - For short-term trading, the support level for gold is around $3,985.00, with bullish targets set at $4,020.00 and $4,028.00 if the price remains above this level [4]. - Alternative strategies suggest a bearish outlook if the price falls below $3,985.00, targeting $3,964.00 and $3,948.00 [5]. - The RSI technical indicator is currently near the neutral zone, indicating potential for further price movement [7].

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government has been shut down for 37 days, surpassing historical records, due to a lack of consensus on the budget between the two parties in Congress [2] - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, noted that since the debt ceiling was raised in July, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by 5% and liquidity has decreased by 8%, with the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) draining funds from the system [2] - The shutdown is expected to create uncertainty in financial markets, leading to increased volatility, particularly in the stock and bond markets [3] Impact on Financial Markets - Government shutdowns typically lead to heightened market uncertainty, causing investors to worry about government efficiency and policy continuity, which increases market volatility [3] - The interruption of federal spending directly affects certain businesses and economic activities, particularly those reliant on government contracts, potentially delaying revenues and impacting stock prices [3] - Long-term shutdowns may affect credit ratings and interest rates, as concerns about U.S. fiscal health could lead to rating adjustments and increased borrowing costs [3] Historical Context - In the 2013 shutdown lasting 16 days, the S&P 500 index rose approximately 3.1%, indicating limited sensitivity to short-term political events [4] - During the 2018-2019 shutdown of 35 days, the S&P 500 initially dropped about 2.7% but later rebounded over 10% as negotiations progressed and economic fundamentals stabilized [5] Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin recently experienced a drop, briefly falling below $100,000 but stabilizing at $103,500, with a noted decline of about 27% over the past month [6] - The market is currently under liquidity pressure due to the government shutdown, and it remains uncertain when policy changes will occur [6] - Recent data shows that Bitcoin has dropped about 10% in the past week, with nearly $1 billion flowing out of spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating weak market sentiment [7] - Long-term holders have sold over 827,000 BTC, amounting to approximately $86 billion, marking the largest monthly sell-off since July [7]

·中国人民银行与韩国央行续签双边本币互换协议 ·英国央行维持利率在4%不变 ·澳洲联储维持关键利率在3.6%不变 ·挪威央行将基准利率维持在4.00%不变 ·马来西亚央行将隔夜政策利率维持在2.75%不变 【全球央行动态】 ·中国人民银行与韩国央行续签双边本币互换协议，互换规模为4000亿元人民币／70万亿韩元，协议有 效期五年，经双方同意可以展期。 ·美联储官员发言一览： 美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，鉴于利率已降至更接近中性的水平，美联储在未来政策行动中应更加谨慎。 理事米兰再次公开呼吁进行更激进的降息，称美联储的政策过于紧缩，保持政策限制性的时间越长，经 济下行的风险就越大。米兰重申中性政策利率远低于当前水平，应该通过一系列50基点降息实现。 理事库克表示，每次美联储会议对货币政策而言都是实时的，货币政策并未设定固定路径；美联储的双 重使命面临的两方面风险均有所上升；当前政策适度具有限制性。12月有可能降息，但将取决于后续新 出炉的信息。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，美联储可能很快需要通过购债来扩大资产负债表规模，以满足流动性需 求，但此举不代表货币政策立场的改变。 圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆预计，货币政策处于适 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street banks have issued a clear warning about potential liquidity pressures in the U.S. money market, indicating that these issues may resurface [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Despite short-term financing rates stabilizing this week, liquidity tension signals in the financial system have raised widespread concerns among banks and policymakers [3] - Industry experts express cautious outlooks on future market trends, highlighting that current market volatility reflects deeper liquidity supply-demand imbalances [3] - The recovery in the market is largely dependent on banks utilizing Federal Reserve financing tools to alleviate short-term pressures, which is considered a temporary solution [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Policy Implications - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that if recent increases in repo rates are not temporary but indicative of structural liquidity shortages, the Fed may need to initiate asset purchase programs to inject long-term liquidity [3] - Analysts suggest that the market environment has moved away from a state of ample reserves, indicating that similar rate volatility events may become the norm, necessitating the Fed to prepare various policy tools in advance [3] Group 3: Treasury Issuance and Liquidity Pressure - The combination of the Fed's quantitative tightening and record-high U.S. Treasury issuance has exacerbated liquidity pressures [4] - Large banks, as primary underwriters of government debt, are required to absorb portions of Treasury securities that investors fail to fully subscribe to, which consumes significant bank capital [4] - Current aggressive issuance of U.S. Treasury securities is nearing the demand limits of traditional investors, potentially exhausting their capacity to absorb new supply [4]

Group 1 - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials highlight the economic disparity in the U.S. and its implications for monetary policy [1][3] - Low- and middle-income households are facing significant payment pressures due to rising living costs and housing expenses, while high-income groups benefit from stock market gains [1][3] - The overall consumption growth is primarily driven by high-income households, raising questions about its sustainability [3][4] Group 2 - The labor market is showing signs of gradual cooling, but there is no significant deterioration, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [3][4] - Investment growth in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence is providing new support for the economy, partially offsetting weaknesses in traditional industries [3] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring liquidity conditions, with recent signs of funding pressure in the money market prompting a reassessment of the quantitative tightening timeline [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hawkish stance of the Fed's monetary policy has significantly pressured the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, pausing the previous strong performance of gold and silver prices. However, Powell's statement on the balance sheet is a key turning point, and a long - position approach to gold and silver prices should be maintained as the Fed will end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st, providing a solid reason for the subsequent expansion of the balance sheet [2]. - Structurally, the tight supply situation of overseas silver spot cannot be completely resolved. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise in the fourth quarter. The gold - silver ratio is still significantly higher than the historical average. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 10, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 0.25% to 919.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.10% to 11,405.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.23 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.11%, and the US dollar index was 99.62 [2]. 3.2 Policy Analysis - In the October FOMC meeting, Powell carried out a "hawkish interest rate cut", lowering the policy rate by 25bps to 3.75% - 4.00% while taking a hawkish stance on the subsequent interest rate path. He believed that the December interest rate cut was not certain, and the pace of interest rate cuts could slow down if economic data continued to be missing due to a government shutdown. He also thought inflation was still high and had rebounded recently [2]. - 2026 FOMC voter and hawkish official Hamark emphasized inflation risks on November 6, believing that monetary policy might not be ready to handle the current inflation level, and the current economic environment was not conducive to further interest rate cuts [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said the neutral interest rate was difficult to estimate, with the model showing 1%, and emphasized the resilience of inflation [2]. - Powell announced that the Fed would end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st due to obvious pressure in the money market, and the real - world situation after the meeting confirmed his statement on liquidity, providing a reason for the subsequent balance sheet expansion [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the precious metals sector, the tight supply of overseas silver spot is difficult to resolve. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise. The gold - silver ratio as of November 7 was 82.3, significantly higher than the historical average since 1971. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.4 Data Statistics - Gold and silver price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and other data on November 7, 2025, showed that most indicators had certain changes compared with the previous day, such as the closing price of COMEX gold active contract rising 0.58% to 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and the trading volume rising 8.30% to 19.89 million lots [5]. - As of November 7, 2025, the internal - external price differences of gold and silver were calculated, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences [54].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, the technology sector remains the market's main line. With policy support for the capital market unchanged, the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4] - For treasury bonds, the fourth - quarter bond market is affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. It is expected to oscillate and recover overall [6][7] - For precious metals, maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and silver prices. Recommend going long on silver on dips [9] - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper prices are supported by supply tightness; aluminum prices may rise further due to supply concerns and improved export expectations; zinc prices are short - term strong but have limited upside in the surplus cycle [12][14][17] - For black building materials, steel demand is in the off - season, and the iron ore market is weak in the short term. Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate steadily [35][37][39] - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may rebound, and oil prices are recommended to be traded in a range [56][58] - For agricultural products, the hog market is bearish in the long - term, and egg prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [80][82] Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: In the past two months, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen nearly 120% from its low, and the price of NAND flash memory contracts has increased by 50% in November. The government has introduced policies to boost consumption [2] - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased. In October, CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, and foreign exchange reserves increased. The central bank conducted 1417 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2134 billion yuan [5] - **Strategy**: The central bank's resumption of trading in treasury bonds is beneficial to the bond market sentiment in the short term. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter [6][7] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose slightly. The Fed's hawkish stance has put pressure on the expectation of interest rate cuts, but Powell's statement on the balance sheet provides a reason for its expansion [8] - **Strategy**: Recommend going long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are 880 - 966 yuan/gram and 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram respectively [9] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, the copper price rose slightly and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [11] - **Strategy**: The supply of refined copper is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are 85400 - 86600 yuan/ton and 10600 - 10850 dollars/ton respectively [12] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. LME aluminum inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased [13] - **Strategy**: Supply concerns and improved export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are 21400 - 21700 yuan/ton and 2830 - 2890 dollars/ton respectively [14] Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose slightly. Zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly [15][16] - **Strategy**: The reduction in zinc smelting开工率 and partial zinc exports have tightened the spot market, but the upside of zinc prices is limited in the surplus cycle [17] Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell slightly. LME lead inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [18] - **Strategy**: The tight supply at the near end has pushed the lead price to run strongly. It is expected that Shanghai lead will oscillate strongly in the short term [18] Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The inventory pressure of refined nickel is still significant, and the price of nickel iron is weak [19] - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended. If the nickel price drops enough, long positions can be gradually established. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton respectively [20][21] Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rose slightly. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand in emerging fields provides support [22] - **Strategy**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin are 270000 - 295000 yuan/ton and 35500 - 37500 dollars/ton respectively [23] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose. The demand for power and energy - storage batteries is high, and the supply of mines is expected to be delayed [24] - **Strategy**: It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate in a range in the short term. The reference operating range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 80500 - 84500 yuan/ton [25] Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell slightly. Overseas ore prices are expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term [26] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [28] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The supply - demand imbalance in the market is still difficult to resolve, and the cost support is weakening [29] - **Strategy**: It is expected that the stainless steel market will continue to be weak in the short term [30] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The cost support is strong, but the demand is average [31] - **Strategy**: The short - term price may oscillate in a range [32] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. Rebar inventory continued to decline, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased [34] - **Strategy**: Steel demand has entered the off - season. The inventory risk of hot - rolled coil still exists. Future demand may recover with policy implementation [35] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell. Overseas shipments decreased, and port inventory increased [36] - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. The short - term ore price is still weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 750 yuan/ton [37] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price rose slightly, and the soda ash price rose. The inventory of glass decreased, and the inventory of soda ash increased [38][39] - **Strategy**: The glass market may oscillate narrowly in the short term, and the soda ash market is expected to oscillate steadily [39][40] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased slightly. The market is affected by macro events, and the pricing has returned to fundamentals [41][43] - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and it may follow the black - sector market. The operability of ferrosilicon is low [44] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose, and the price of polysilicon fell. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to be under pressure, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease [45][48] - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to consolidate, and attention should be paid to the progress of the platform company for polysilicon [47][49] Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated. The market risk preference may improve, and there are differences between long and short views [51][52] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long on dips. A partial position can be established for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [56] Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price rose slightly, and the prices of refined oil products fell. The gasoline inventory decreased, and the diesel inventory increased [57] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term and wait for the verification of OPEC's export price - support intention [58] Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price decreased. The supply pressure increased, and the demand weakened [59] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe. The current weak - reality pattern has not changed [60][61] Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price rose. The supply and demand are in a relatively loose pattern, and the fundamentals lack a driving force [62] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe. The price is at a low level, and the downside space is limited [62] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene decreased, and the price of styrene rose. The supply of pure benzene is still wide, and the demand for styrene is seasonal [63] - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [64] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price decreased. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor [65] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term. The domestic supply - demand situation is difficult to reverse [66] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG price rose. The supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. The cost support is weak [67] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter [68] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. The processing fee is under pressure [69] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase in PXN in the medium term [70][71] p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX price decreased. The load of PX is high, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly. The support comes from aromatics blending and the long - term supply - demand structure [72] - **Strategy**: It is expected to follow the trend of crude oil. Pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [73] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price decreased. The inventory is at a high level, and the demand is expected to pick up seasonally [74] - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [75] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price decreased. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound [76] - **Strategy**: The PP price is expected to be supported in the first quarter of next year when the supply - surplus pattern changes [77] Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The hog price was stable with partial increases. The supply is expected to be high before the Spring Festival [79] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the long term and conduct reverse spreads in the short term [80] Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price fluctuated slightly. The supply is still large, but the demand is supported [81] - **Strategy**: The egg price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Observe or conduct short - term trading, and short on rallies in the medium term [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price rose slightly. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the demand is expected to improve [83] - **Strategy**: The short - term price may rise, but it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [84] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The palm oil export increased, and the production increased. The domestic oil price oscillated weakly [85] - **Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to be weak in the short term. Turn to a bullish view if the production decreases [86] Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar export increased, and the global supply is expected to increase [87][88] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [89] Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton price oscillated. The demand is weak, and the new - cotton supply is large [90] - **Strategy**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term [91]

SHMET 网讯：美联储一位高级官员警告称，美国贫困群体日益加剧的困境，正使这个全球最重要的经济体面临衰退风险。此番言论凸显出美联储决策 者在考虑是否于12月再次降息时面临的"平衡难题"。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯指出，数据及与社区领袖的对话均表明，许多贫困家庭正承受着支付能力危机。"大量证据显示……中低收入家庭正从支付能力 角度面临诸多制约，"威廉姆斯对《金融时报》表示，"包括生活成本、住房开支，以及许多家庭基本靠按月薪度日的现状。"与此同时，更富裕的美国人正 因股市"飙升至历史高位附近"而获益。 尽管美国整体经济韧性远超许多经济学家预期，且通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标，但弱势家庭因高昂生活成本承受的痛苦，意味着美国经济可能偏离正 轨。"某些事件可能打击信心，或者说，我们目前在总量层面看到的消费者支出增长，可能不如预期中强劲——毕竟许多人确实在依靠月度收入挣扎度 日，"同时担任利率制定机构联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）副主席的威廉姆斯解释道。 包括美联储主席鲍威尔和有影响力的理事沃勒在内的美联储官员，已开始更关注被威廉姆斯称为缺乏"强劲动力"的劳动力市场如何影响普通美国人的经 济前景。鲍威尔与沃勒指出，当前强劲的 ...

Core Insights - A senior Federal Reserve official warns that the increasing plight of the impoverished in the U.S. poses a risk of recession for the world's most important economy, highlighting the "balancing act" faced by Fed policymakers when considering a potential rate cut in December [1][2] Economic Conditions - New York Fed President Williams indicates that many low- and middle-income families are struggling with affordability issues, including high living costs and housing expenses, while wealthier Americans benefit from a soaring stock market [1] - Despite the overall resilience of the U.S. economy exceeding many economists' expectations, the pain experienced by vulnerable households suggests a potential deviation from economic stability [1][2] Labor Market Dynamics - Fed officials, including Powell and Waller, are increasingly focused on how the labor market, described by Williams as lacking "strong momentum," affects the economic outlook for ordinary Americans [2] - Signs of a cooling labor market have led the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in the last two policy meetings, with investors anticipating another cut next month, although Powell stated that further cuts are not a "foregone conclusion" [2] Consumer Confidence and AI Impact - Confidence has rebounded significantly due to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and related investment trends, which have replaced previous pessimism regarding trade tensions [3] - While AI-related investments are stimulating growth, concerns about potential market bubbles persist, with Williams expressing cautious optimism about the transformative potential of AI [3] Monetary Policy and Market Signals - The Fed announced the end of its quantitative tightening experiment starting December 1, acknowledging recent funding pressures in the money market [3] - Williams refuted calls for the Fed to shift its benchmark interest rate to better reflect repo market borrowing costs, emphasizing the continued use of the federal funds rate as the policy rate [3]