随着下周12月10日美联储议息会议临近，市场不仅仅聚焦于板上钉钉的降息举措，华尔街资深策略师指 出，美联储可能即将宣布一项重大的资产负债表扩张计划。 近日，前纽约联储回购专家、美银利率策略师Mark Cabana预测，除了广泛预期的降息25个基点外，美 联储主席鲍威尔将在下周三宣布每月购买450亿美元国库券（T-bills）的计划，这一购债操作将于2026 年1月正式实施，旨在通过向系统注入流动性，防止回购市场利率进一步飙升。 Cabana在报告中警告称，虽然利率市场对降息反应平淡，但投资者普遍"低估"了美联储在资产负债表方 面的行动力度。他指出，目前的货币市场利率水平表明银行体系的准备金已不再"充裕"，美联储必须通 过重启购车据来填补流动性缺口。与此同时，瑞银交易部门也给出了类似的预测，认为美联储将在2026 年初开始每月购买约400亿美元的国库券，以维持短期利率市场的稳定。 这一潜在的政策调整发生在美联储领导层即将更迭的关键时期。随着鲍威尔任期接近尾声，以及市场对 Kevin Hassett可能接任美联储主席的预期升温，下周的会议不仅关乎短期流动性，更将为未来一年的货 币政策路径定调。 前纽约联储专家预测 ...

以下是Michael Krautzberger核心观点： 财华社2025年12月5日讯，安联环球投资公募市场首席投资总监Michael Krautzberger在12月9-10日联储 局会议前的评论。 Michael Krautzberger表示，联储局内部分歧加深，仍然可能减息，预期联储局将减息25个基点，但投票 结果或将显示立场不一。此次偏鸽派决定的背后，主要是源于劳动市场仍存压力及消费呈现疲态。 尽管如此，美国国债市场或仍可从减息中获得一定支持，但考虑到10年期收益率已在4%左右，进一步 大幅下调空间或已有限。联储局近期结束量化紧缩对美国国债带来一定的支持，但若要推动收益率显著 回落，或仍需见到经济活动明显转弱或通胀加速回落的迹象。目前市场对12月减息的预期概率接近九 成，若届时选择按兵不动，将属重大意外，或引发市场波动，甚至触发资产价格短期回调。 来源：财华网 美国国债市场或会因再度减息而略有舒缓，但考虑到10年期国债收益率已逼近4厘，进一步下行的空间 似乎有限。 在这次会议上，联储局官员们更新的经济预测同样值得关注。9月的预测显示讯号互相矛盾：本地生产 总值接近潜力水平、失业率逐步回落、通胀回归目标 ...

比特币领跌的时候，市场到底在害怕什么，说白了，就是在问一句：当屏幕上一串红色数字冲在最前面 时，是谁先慌了，是电脑里的曲线，还是屏幕外面那批人的心。很多人习惯把比特币看成一个单独的投 机品，其实每次它当"跌幅第一"的时候，背后都是一整片市场情绪一起被按下去了，只不过它跑得最 快、摔得也最早。 这一次更微妙的地方在于：消息面看起来挺体面，监管更清晰，有机构把它写进报表，立法讨论方向稳 定，名校基金也拿出真金白银配置，组合在一起像一盘利好拼盘。可价格的选择，是从高位拐头向下。 信息在往上堆，曲线在往下走，中间那段"错位感"，就是本轮比特币领跌真正勾出的问题：图上的线究 竟有多大话语权，水面下那股资金又准备流向哪里。 图上的线在亮红灯，不是"迷信"，是习惯被叠加出来 在技术派的世界里，比特币从来不是孤立的一串数字，而是一整群人集体操作之后留下的轨迹。每一次 恐慌抛售、追高加仓、被动止损，最后都会被压缩进一条价格曲线里。久而久之，这条曲线就有了节奏 感，有了被人反复研究的技术节奏。 有研究者把几轮完整大周期摊开，从一轮极端低点到同轮极端高点，一段段去量时间，很意外地发现： 从底到顶，大约都是一百五十多天左右。上一些周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential implementation of RMP (Reserve Management Purchases) may signal the end of the "quantitative tightening" era and could lead to a new round of balance sheet expansion, with a possible monthly liquidity increase of $20 billion [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to halt its balance sheet reduction, marking a significant shift in monetary policy [1] - RMP is anticipated to be widely discussed in the market, potentially being labeled as the "next generation QE" [1] - The ability of the Federal Reserve to stabilize the repo market and alter the direction of monetary policy is a key focus for Wall Street [1]

Group 1: Bullish Factors - The bullish sentiment for the U.S. stock market in 2026 is primarily driven by the AI boom and significant stimulus measures, with the "Tech Seven" expected to contribute approximately $600 billion in capital expenditures to the U.S. economy [1] - Additional supportive factors for the bullish outlook include the end of quantitative tightening (QT), ongoing fiscal deficits, $1.2 trillion in stock buyback authorizations for 2026, retail investors' continued "buying the dip" behavior, and potential regulatory relaxations in the banking sector [2] Group 2: Bearish Risks - Concerns are growing regarding high stock valuations, which leave little room for error, and the market's increasing dependence on the AI theme, leading to one of the narrowest market breadths in the past two decades [1][3] - The emergence of a "K-shaped economy" is highlighted, where economic recovery is uneven, with financial stress among certain consumer groups and rising default rates among low-income households [3] - The phenomenon of "AI circularity" indicates that the prosperity in the AI sector is increasingly financed through leverage, raising concerns about sustainability [3] Group 3: Market Psychology - A unique risk identified is the lack of "muscle memory" among traders, as the unprecedented bull market over the past 15 years has led many to only experience rising markets, fostering a belief in perpetual support and the effectiveness of "buying the dip" strategies [4] - The potential for a significant market adjustment could favor more experienced investors who have previously navigated bear market cycles [4]

Group 1 - US private sector employment unexpectedly decreased by 32,000 in November, marking the largest decline since early 2023, raising concerns about a weakening labor market [4][21] - The ADP report indicated that there have been four declines in employment numbers over the past six months, contrasting with economists' median forecast of a 10,000 increase [6][21] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may be influenced by this weak ADP report, as it is one of the few recent data points available due to the delay of the official employment report [6][21] Group 2 - US Treasury Secretary Yellen plans to push for reforms at the Federal Reserve, requiring regional Fed president candidates to have resided in their district for at least three years [8][23] - Yellen criticized the Fed for straying from its primary mission of monetary policy, suggesting that regional Fed presidents should come from their respective areas rather than being "flashy outsiders" [8][24] Group 3 - Meta Platforms has hired Apple's top design executive, Alan Dye, highlighting its commitment to entering the AI consumer device market [10][26] - Stephen Lemay, a long-time designer at Apple, will replace Dye in his role [10][26] Group 4 - Micron announced it will stop selling storage products to consumers to focus on meeting the surging demand for high-performance AI chips [12][28] - The decision reflects a broader trend where AI infrastructure growth is causing shortages in core input products, with companies committing billions to build large data centers [12][29] Group 5 - Copper prices surged to new highs, driven by a spike in orders for copper from London Metal Exchange warehouses, raising supply concerns amid fears of potential US tariffs [14][31] - LME copper prices rose by 3.4%, exceeding $11,500 per ton, as traders anticipate a depletion of global inventories due to increased demand [14][31] Group 6 - Goldman Sachs' macro trader compared the stock market's dynamics to a boxing match, with AI and stimulus measures as bullish drivers against high valuations and credit pressures as bearish forces [16][33] - The S&P 500 is on track for a third consecutive year of double-digit gains, with significant capital expenditures expected from major tech companies [16][33] - Factors supporting bullish sentiment include the end of quantitative tightening, ongoing deficit spending, and anticipated regulatory relaxations for the banking sector by 2026 [16][33]

美联储于周一(12月1日)结束了其量化紧缩(QT)计划，并通过隔夜回购向美国银行体系注入135亿美元资金，为该计划画上句号。 据美联储经济数据(FRED)显示，这一规模是自新冠疫情时期以来第二大流动性注入，甚至超过了"互联网泡沫"(Dot Com Bubble)时期的峰值。 (美联储隔夜回购交易 来源：美联储) (截图来源：美联储经济数据) 根据美联储10月底货币政策会议的决定，从12月1日起，美联储将结束量化紧缩，即停止自2022年以来的缩减资产负债表进程(简称"缩表")。 自2022年以来，美联储从市场中抽取超过2万亿美元的资金，目前资产负债表降至6.55万亿美元左右。但从12月1日开始，情况将发生改变，美联储将停止 从市场中抽取资金。 有分析指出，停止"缩表"标志着美联储政策的一个转折点：新冠疫情后激进的紧缩政策画上句号。此举意在应对流动性风险并提振美国经济。 由分析平台Barchart证实最新一轮QT已迅速结束。随着美联储本月正式停止缩减资产负债表，比特币和风险资产可获得新的流动性冲击。 最新的隔夜回购交易数据显示，周二有135亿美元流动性进入银行体系。Barchart评论道，该总量甚至超过了互联网泡 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，Coinbase Institutional 发推表示，虽然量化紧缩终止、美联储重返债市带来流动性改善，理 论上利好加密市场，但比特币仍因多重压力走弱：BTC 跌破关键牛市支撑带、期权情绪转空、OG 大户 持续卖出、现货 ETF 大幅净流出，同时财库（DATs）也明显减速。Coinbase 认为当前环境更适合等待 突破交易，而非贸然抄底接刀。 ...

作为加密货币的领头羊，比特币在12月就已经下跌了7%，并且自10月6日创下历史高位以来，已经回调 了约31%。这反映出在过去一个月里，投资者对加密货币的担忧一直在这一市场占据主导地位。 行业人士称，加密货币市场目前处于脆弱状态，负面消息对市场造成压力，而积极的进展也无法改善市 场的低迷情绪或价格走势。 比特币在12月的第一天就经历了暴跌行情，这使得市场避险情绪浓厚。随着年末将近，分析师们也开始 对这一资产采取了更为谨慎的态度。 从12月1日起，美联储结束了量化紧缩，停止了自2022年以来的缩减资产负债表进程，虽说这消除了一 个重大的结构性阻力因素，但Caladan交易公司的Lim指出，其积极影响需要一段时间才能在市场流动中 显现出来。 他将目前现状与2019年的情况进行了对比，当年，风险资产在美联储结束其最后一次量化紧缩周期大约 6至12个月后才开始出现大幅上涨。 加密货币交易公司Caladan的研究主管Derek Lim指出，"比特币很可能会维持在一定区间内波动，波动 幅度会有所加大，价格将在83000美元至95000美元之间盘整。" 比特币今年剩余行情会如何？ 12月1日比特币的暴跌似乎是由缺乏宏观数据、 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.10%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.33% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 0.62%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.24%, France's CAC40 up by 0.29%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.65% [1] - WTI crude oil is down by 0.19% at $59.21 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down by 0.30% at $62.98 per barrel [1] Economic Insights - Strong online sales on Cyber Monday reached $17.3 billion, indicating consumer resilience despite economic concerns [2] - The overall retail spending increase is driven more by rising prices than by an increase in sales volume, highlighting a K-shaped economic recovery where wealthier consumers and lower-income groups behave differently [2] Company News - MongoDB reported a 19% year-over-year revenue increase to $628 million, significantly exceeding market expectations, with its core product, Atlas, growing by 30% [4] - Apple faces increased risks of collective lawsuits in the EU following a ruling by the European Court of Justice, which allows users to file claims in the Netherlands [5] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced new partnerships during its annual re:Invent conference, focusing on cloud security and sustainability [5] - Michael Burry criticized Tesla for being "absurdly overvalued," citing concerns over stock dilution due to executive compensation [6] - Marvell Technology is in talks to acquire Celestial AI for over $5 billion, aiming to address memory bottlenecks in AI computing [6]