Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a structural divergence last week, with cyclical and financial sectors leading gains, while military and power equipment sectors declined [1] - In the industry, oil and petrochemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals continued to rise month-on-month, while communications showed improvement; military, power equipment, automotive, and computer sectors experienced significant declines [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weaker performance than the average for the same period in recent years [2] - The price index showed a notable rebound due to rising commodity prices, while the service sector remained stable, and the construction industry required policy support for continued activity [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, but the change in leadership may introduce uncertainty into monetary policy [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current period is marked by a concentration of earnings disclosures for A-share companies, with signs of economic transformation accelerating in Q4 2025 [4] - New economic growth is expanding beyond AI to include overseas markets, resource products, and service consumption, indicating a shift in economic dynamics [4] - The market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on leading companies in niche sectors and the A500 index, as regulatory measures have dampened short-term speculative sentiment [4] Group 4: Investment Directions - Emerging technology remains a primary focus, with significant demand for global AI computing power driving rapid growth in semiconductor equipment and price increases across the industry [5] - Attention should be given to sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies, including food, retail, tourism services, and cyclical commodities like oil and chemicals [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wedbush indicates that the U.S. stock market may face a period of volatility in the coming months as investors prepare for potential policy reforms under Kevin Warsh's leadership at the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Market Impact of Warsh's Nomination - Trump's nomination of Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to create short-term market unease until the policy outlook becomes clearer later this year [3][5]. - The transition period until Warsh officially takes office in May is anticipated to be bumpy, with Wedbush suggesting that the downside risk for the stock market is greater than the upside risk during this time [3][4]. Group 2: Shift in Federal Reserve Policy - Under Warsh, the Federal Reserve is expected to shift its focus from interest rates to the size of the central bank's balance sheet, utilizing "pragmatic monetarism" as a framework to combat inflation through quantitative tightening [3][4]. - This shift is seen as the end of the "Fed put," which refers to the market's assumption that the central bank will intervene to support asset prices in non-crisis situations [3][4]. Group 3: Warsh's Economic Philosophy - Warsh has a history of skepticism towards large-scale asset purchases and has previously criticized the Fed's reliance on outdated inflation models [4][6]. - His approach is characterized by a lower tolerance for inflation, suggesting a preference for tightening policies to mitigate inflation risks rather than simply accommodating short-term economic stimulus demands [6][7]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market analysts believe that Warsh's nomination could disrupt the consensus-driven monetary policy framework established during Powell's tenure, emphasizing inflation control and policy independence [6][7]. - Predictions indicate that Warsh may support 2-3 rate cuts this year, balancing government demands with inflation control objectives, while still adhering to a data-dependent approach [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, tin prices are vulnerable to market sentiment, geopolitical situations, and short - term supply - demand changes, with intensified fluctuations and high risks. It's recommended that investors participate cautiously to avoid sharp volatility. In the long - term, the core support for the upward shift of tin prices remains solid, and it's advisable to wait for market sentiment to stabilize or prices to have a reasonable correction and then adopt a strategy of going long on dips. [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Affected by the retreat of US technology stocks and the rising expectation of Fed tightening, tin prices dropped significantly from the night session on January 29th. As of February 2nd, the main contract of Shanghai tin hit the 11% daily limit down to 392,650 yuan/ton. [1] 3.2 Driving Factors 3.2.1 Impact of US Technology Stocks and Fed Expectations - Microsoft's Q4 2025 earnings report showed that huge capital expenditures in AI infrastructure, model training, and cloud services did not lead to significant revenue growth. This concern hit the high - valuation logic of technology stocks, especially AI concept stocks. Microsoft's stock price plunged over 10% on January 30th, with a single - day market value evaporation of about $420 billion. [2] - The news that Kevin Warsh will be nominated as the next Fed Chairman on January 29th, and the official announcement by Trump on January 30th. Warsh is a "hawk" on monetary policy. The expectation of his taking office led to the anticipation of accelerated global dollar liquidity tightening, causing a sell - off in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. [3] 3.2.2 Supply Recovery in Myanmar - From November to December 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates from Myanmar increased significantly year - on - year. In November, imports were 7,190.21 physical tons (about 1,636.05 metal tons), with a month - on - month increase of 89.94% and a year - on - year increase of 92.16%. In December, imports were 6,205.43 physical tons (1,342.37 metal tons), a 17.95% month - on - month decrease but a 183.32% year - on - year increase. [5] - The recovery of Myanmar's supply eased the tight domestic tin ore supply, and the processing fees of smelters increased. As of February 2nd, the processing fee of 40% tin concentrates in Yunnan rose to 14,000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrates in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi also rose to 10,000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. [6] 3.3 Future Outlook - In the long - term, the upward shift of tin prices is supported by three factors: long - term rigid constraints on the supply side (low global tin ore reserve - to - production ratio, supply disruptions in major producing areas, limited new large - scale mining projects, and rising mining costs); profound changes in the demand structure (the "AI arms race" boosting the demand for high - end semiconductor packaging and electronic soldering materials); and the re - evaluation of the strategic value of tin due to global technological competition and industrial chain security concerns. [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wedbush indicates that the U.S. stock market may face a period of volatility in the coming months as investors prepare for potential policy reforms under Kevin Warsh's leadership at the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Wedbush analysts expect market volatility to persist until Warsh officially takes office in May, as investors reassess their positions in light of a significant policy shift away from the framework established during Jerome Powell's tenure [1][2]. - The transition period is anticipated to be bumpy, with Wedbush suggesting that the downside risk in the stock market outweighs the upside risk as investors shift focus to companies with sustainable growth [2]. Group 2: Policy Changes - Under Warsh, the Federal Reserve is expected to shift its focus from interest rates to the size of the central bank's balance sheet, utilizing monetary supply as the primary tool against inflation through quantitative tightening [1][2]. - This change is seen as the end of the "Fed put," which refers to the market's assumption that the central bank would intervene to support asset prices in non-crisis situations [1]. Group 3: Warsh's Background and Views - Warsh, nominated by Trump, has a history of skepticism towards large-scale asset purchases and previously resigned from the Fed in 2011 due to his opposition to the second round of quantitative easing [2][4]. - His nomination signifies a potential ideological shift in U.S. monetary policy, emphasizing inflation control and policy independence, contrasting with Powell's consensus-driven approach [5]. Group 4: Market Implications - Warsh's hawkish stance and support for balance sheet reduction may negatively impact risk assets reliant on excess liquidity while benefiting U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, putting pressure on gold and silver [1][4]. - Analysts believe that while Warsh may implement 2-3 rate cuts this year to align with government expectations, he will also prioritize inflation control, indicating a more stringent approach compared to Powell [5].

智通财经APP获悉，投行Wedbush在一份策略报告中表示，随着投资者为凯文·沃什领导下的美联储可能 进行的政策全面改革做好准备，未来几个月美国股市可能面临一段震荡期。 在2月1日发布、题为《告别美联储看跌期权》的报告中，Wedbush分析师萨姆·巴沙姆指出，美国特朗普 选择沃什出任下一任美联储主席，短期内很可能令市场不安，直到今年晚些时候政策前景逐步明朗。该 机构预计，在沃什于5月正式上任之前，市场波动性仍将持续，因为投资者开始计入其所认为的、与鲍 威尔时代政策框架的决定性决裂。 据悉，沃什的立场相对偏鹰派，且更倾向于维护美联储的独立性，这一预期弱化了市场对美联储宽松货 币政策的预期。此外，沃什是美联储缩表的坚定支持者。在过去一年的多次演讲中，沃什反复表示，美 联储多年来激进的债券购买计划已经走得太远，并可能将其拖入财政政策的混乱政治泥潭。有市场参与 者警告称，沃什倾向于以加速缩减资产负债表为代价换取降息，这将成为不利于股债市场流动性扩张的 独特政策组合。 该机构预计，过渡期将会颠簸不平。从现在到5月，如果负面动能累积，Wedbush认为股市"下行风险大 于上行风险"，因为投资者将重新评估高贝塔敞口，并转向 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, nominated as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, possesses unique policy ideas that have led to market confusion regarding his approach to asset reduction, which he prioritizes as a reform task, contrasting sharply with current realities [2][4]. Group 1: Warsh's Policy Perspective - Warsh emphasizes the independence of the central bank but rejects the current leadership's reforms under Jerome Powell, indicating a significant divergence in views on the Fed's role [2][4]. - He believes that the Fed's asset expansion deviates from its core functions, resonating with the traditional Republican views of "small government" and "small central bank" [4]. - Warsh's tenure as a Fed governor began in 2006, and he played a crucial role during the financial crisis, but he later distanced himself from the Fed's quantitative easing policies, particularly after QE2 [4][5]. Group 2: Concerns About Fiscal Policy - Warsh expressed concerns that additional purchases of government bonds would entangle the Fed in politically charged fiscal policy, leading to his resignation from the Fed [5]. - He argues that the Fed's excessive involvement and poor performance have undermined the legitimacy of its monetary policy independence [5]. - The Fed's recent strategy under Powell, which tolerates inflation above 2%, has drawn criticism for its slow response to rising inflation, with Warsh suggesting that this crisis of independence is self-inflicted [5]. Group 3: Future Implications - Warsh advocates for a potential interest rate cut if it is coupled with a significant reduction in the central bank's asset portfolio, arguing that asset expansion injects excess funds into the market, which could lead to rising interest rates [5]. - Despite a long-term asset reduction plan, the Fed must proceed cautiously due to the complex web of transactions backed by U.S. Treasury securities [5][6]. - The evolving financial landscape over the past 15 years presents challenges for Warsh as he aims to leverage his close relationship with President Trump to navigate economic realities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent sharp declines in gold and silver prices, attributing it to a reversal in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly following the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair, who is expected to advocate for tighter monetary policies [10][12][18]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Declines - Gold prices fell sharply, with COMEX gold dropping below $5000 per ounce, marking a maximum decline of 16%, while silver saw a more severe drop of 39% from its peak of $121.785 per ounce to a low of $74 per ounce [6][12]. - The market consensus shifted due to expectations of a significant reduction in Fed's balance sheet and a potential tightening of monetary policy, which negatively impacted non-yielding assets like gold and silver [10][12]. - The volatility in gold and silver prices was exacerbated by profit-taking at high levels and a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, leading to a rapid exit of funds from these assets [12][24]. Group 2: Historical Context of Gold Prices - Historical peaks in gold prices have been associated with several factors, including Fed tightening, economic recovery, and central bank gold sales, with notable peaks in 1980 and 2011 leading to significant declines thereafter [15][16]. - The current decline in gold prices is not indicative of a fundamental deterioration in its market but rather a reaction to changing monetary policy expectations and profit-taking [17][24]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's price volatility is attributed to its smaller market size compared to gold, making it more susceptible to speculative trading and rapid price movements [12][28]. - The article highlights the potential risks in the silver market, including the impact of rising margin requirements and the possibility of reduced industrial demand, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [34][37]. Group 4: Impact on U.S. Stock Market - The declines in gold and silver prices have also affected the U.S. stock market, particularly technology stocks, due to concerns over AI investment returns and the overall risk appetite of investors [43][45]. - The article notes that the market is experiencing a shift in sentiment, with some sectors benefiting from the volatility while others face significant declines, indicating a complex interplay of macroeconomic narratives and investor behavior [45][56]. Group 5: Implications for A-Share Market - The A-share market is expected to experience downward pressure due to external shocks from the U.S. market, with potential for significant declines in related sectors such as precious metals [47][48]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious and consider the fundamental performance of companies, particularly those with strong resources and cost control, as the market seeks stability amid volatility [56][60].

智通财经2月2日讯（编辑 潇湘）在美国总统特朗普考虑下一任美联储主席人选的大部分时间里，市场 争论的焦点始终围绕着特朗普挑选的"鲍威尔接班人"是否会像他所期望的那样大幅降息。 而如今，随着特朗普正式宣布提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什——这位经济学家以对央行严厉批评和其货 币政策观点同样闻名——这场辩论已骤然从短期利率走向，转向了美联储6.6万亿美元的资产负债表及 其在市场中的核心作用。 注：美联储资产负债表 多年来，沃什多次公开抨击美联储官员放任央行资产膨胀，这引发市场猜测一旦他上台可能迅速采取缩 表行动。这种传闻和预期在上周五推高了长期国债收益率，同时也导致美元大幅反弹，金银价格暴跌。 正如CreditSights投资级与宏观策略主管Zach Griffiths所言，"他(沃什)一直对美联储的资产负债表扩张， 持严厉批评的态度。" 那么，假如沃什真的在今年夏天成功上位——从鲍威尔手中接过美联储主席的帅印，他究竟可能会如何 实现其政策主张？美联储与美国政府(主要是财政部)间的职责范围、美国长期利率的走向，又会发生怎 样的变化呢？ 缩表反而能释放降息空间？ 与此同时，在货币政策的取舍方面，沃什可能也会辩称，通过收紧 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在特朗普考虑下一任美联储主席人选的大部分时间里，市场上的争论焦点在于，他 选择的人选是否会像他所希望的那样大幅降低利率。现在，随着他选择前美联储理事凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh )——这位经济学家以其对美联储的激烈批评和对货币政策的观点而闻名——辩论突然从短期利 率转向美联储 6.6 万亿美元的资产负债表规模。 多年来，沃什多次公开抨击他的老同事们，指责他们放任银行资产膨胀，这引发了市场猜测，认为他可 能会迅速采取行动缩减资产规模。这种传言在上周五推高了长期美国国债收益率，美元走强，黄金和白 银价格暴跌。 CreditSights 投资级和宏观策略主管Zach Griffiths表示："他对美联储的资产负债表扩张持非常批评态 度。" 沃什对美联储过度干预的看法与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特一致，他希望彻底扭转这一趋势并推动其 他改革。但这并非易事，不仅会直接影响长期利率，还会影响至关重要的全球最大金融借贷市场。 根据市场走势，在沃什的领导下，如果美联储缩减负债表的措施获得决策者批准，可能会导致与降低长 期借贷成本的目标背道而驰。这可能会迫使美国财政部或其他美国机构更多地参与市场管理，而 ...

改革美联储？ 近年来沃什作为美联储政策的激烈批评者，曾主张美联储需要"改朝换代"。 彭博经济研究美国首席经济学家Anna Wong认为，这显然不利于他与现任联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）成员及美联储工作人员建立信任或融洽的关系。 举足轻重的美联储迎来变革派。美国总统特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席当天（1月30日）， 美股指集体下挫，贵金属价格暴跌，美元和美债利率反弹。 沃什的登场，引发全球投资者对美联储政策预期的急剧转变，多名知名经济学家表示，其提名也在引发 各界对美联储在美国这一全球最大经济体中扮演角色的全面重新评估。 沃什曾任美联储理事，多年来一直批评美联储职能不断扩张，他认为这是政策制定者为了应对2008年金 融危机和疫情带来的冲击而扩大政策工具箱的结果。 也正是这些呼吁美联储变革的呼声，促使美国财政部长贝森特支持沃什的任命。贝森特近年来也同样谴 责美联储"职能扩张"。 如今，获得提名的沃什有望执掌美联储，领导其改革，不过前提是参议院批准其任命。 彭博经济研究美国经济研究主任威尔克斯（David Wilcox）对第一财经表示，不管最后是谁获得提名， 上任时都会面临外界的质疑，人们会认为他一定是 ...