Core Viewpoint - The report from Lianhe Securities on July 30 recommends a "buy" rating for Chifeng Gold (600988.SH) based on its strong operational capabilities and favorable market conditions for gold in the upcoming quarters [2] Group 1: Company Operations - Chifeng Gold manages and operates four gold mines domestically, which forms the foundation of its gold supply system [2] - The company also manages and operates two gold mines internationally, representing a strategic attempt at internationalization [2] Group 2: Resource and Cost Management - The company possesses excellent resource endowments and demonstrates outstanding cost control capabilities [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Although short-term gold prices may face pressure, the expected downside is limited, with potential upward opportunities in the fourth quarter driven by anticipated liquidity easing from a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices have shown a stable upward trend, with Zhou Shengsheng's gold price increasing by 7 yuan per gram to 1001 yuan per gram, making it the highest-priced store [1][3] - Shanghai China Gold's price decreased by 12 yuan per gram to 969 yuan per gram, marking it as the lowest-priced store, resulting in a price difference of 32 yuan per gram between the highest and lowest [1][3] - The latest prices from various gold brands include: Lao Miao at 999 yuan per gram (up 4), Liufu at 998 yuan per gram (unchanged), Zhou Dafu at 998 yuan per gram (unchanged), and Zhou Liufu at 978 yuan per gram (unchanged) [1][3][4] Group 2 - Platinum prices have continued to decline, with Zhou Shengsheng's platinum jewelry price dropping by 2 yuan per gram to 567 yuan per gram [4] - The gold recovery price has increased by 3.1 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands, such as Cai Bai at 765.70 yuan per gram and Lao Fengxiang at 773.20 yuan per gram [4] Group 3 - International gold prices have shown a slight upward trend, with spot gold reaching a high of 3333.89 USD per ounce and closing at 3326.38 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.35% increase [7] - The increase in gold prices was supported by disappointing US job vacancy data and heightened market risk aversion due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [7] - Market analysts suggest that upcoming US GDP data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions will significantly influence gold price movements [7]

Group 1 - The current gold price is approximately 766 yuan per gram based on 24K pure gold, with additional costs for gold bars typically ranging from 10 to 20 yuan per gram or more [1] - If gold prices continue to retreat to the 760-765 yuan per gram range, the retail price of gold bars may stabilize between 780 and 790 yuan per gram, with a low probability of exceeding 800 yuan per gram in the short term [3] - Despite a four-day decline, gold prices remain high, and the possibility of gold bar retail prices exceeding 800 yuan per gram depends on whether the base gold price continues to rise and the level of processing premiums [5] Group 2 - Smaller gold bars (such as 1 gram and 5 grams) incur higher labor and packaging costs, resulting in final prices that can be significantly higher than the spot price by several tens of yuan per gram [1] - Should gold prices rebound above 790 yuan per gram or if processing costs increase, it is not uncommon for some gold bar retail prices to reach above 800 yuan per gram [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, showing an inverted V-shaped trend. The upward movement was due to market concerns about the US tariff node on August 1st and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July. However, positive trade signals from the US, Japan, Europe, and China reduced trade policy uncertainty, increasing market risk appetite and pressuring the gold price. Currently, the gold price is at a low level of oscillation since the second quarter, and the battle between bulls and bears at the $3300 mark can be observed [5][27]. - In the long term, since the second quarter, the gold price has been oscillating at a high level. Even the tense situation in the Middle East has not pushed the gold price to break through, indicating significant upward pressure. In the medium to long term, after the relaxation of US tariff policies and the easing of Sino-US relations, the market risk appetite has increased, the equity market has performed well, and the gold price has been under pressure, with the gold-silver ratio continuing to weaken. It is expected that the gold price will maintain an oscillating trend, and a straddle option combination can be considered. In the short term, attention can be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July and the latest US tariff policy on August 1st, which may impact the short-term market [5][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a graph of the linkage between the US dollar index and the COMEX gold futures closing price [8]. 1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | July 25 | July 18 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,338.50 | $3,355.50 | -0.51% | | COMEX Silver | $38.33 | $38.43 | -0.26% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 777.32 | 777.02 | 0.04% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,392.00 | 9,273.00 | 1.28% | | US Dollar Index | 97.67 | 98.47 | -0.82% | | US Dollar against Offshore RMB | 7.17 | 7.18 | -0.18% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.96 | 2.03 | -0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,388.64 | 6,296.79 | 1.46% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $65.07 | $67.30 | -3.31% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 87.11 | 87.33 | -0.25% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 82.76 | 83.79 | -1.23% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 957.09 | 943.63 | 13.46 | | iShare Gold ETF | 449.60 | 446.96 | 2.64 | [9] 2. Gold Price Maintains Oscillating Trend - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, corresponding to a bottoming-out and rebound of the US dollar index, while the US Treasury yield remained weak. Positive trade policy signals from the US, Japan, and Europe reduced the short-term safe-haven demand for gold [11]. - The US stock market remained strong last week, with high market risk appetite, which pressured the gold price [13]. 3. Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long position of non-commercial traders on COMEX has been rising. As of July 22, compared with the previous week, the long position changed by 41,722 contracts, the short position by 1,799 contracts, and the net long position by 39,923 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious metal price trend than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [15]. - Since late May, the gold ETF has been climbing. In early June, the silver price rose significantly, with obvious ETF inflows, showing a combination of rising volume and price. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, capital attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain its strength [17]. - Last week, the silver price rose first and then fell. In the first half of the week, the New York silver price approached $40 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price reached 9,500 yuan per kilogram. As the gold price fell, the silver price also declined, and the gold-silver ratio rebounded slightly [20]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - and long - term trends of the gold price and suggesting attention to relevant events and investment strategies [5][27].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a volatile adjustment trend, with a focus on potential support levels for a bullish outlook in the near future [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Last week, international gold prices fluctuated, starting at $3349.33 and reaching a high of $3438.67 before dropping to a low of $3325.05, ultimately closing at $3338.50, reflecting a weekly decline of $10.83 or 0.32% [1]. - The market saw a significant weekly volatility of $113.62, indicating a turbulent trading environment [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently facing strong technical resistance, which has contributed to its recent decline [3][4]. - The monthly chart indicates a potential bearish trend, with risks of a drop to $3000 or $2500 if the upward trend support is broken [9]. - However, the overall bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the 5-month moving average and within the previous upward trend channel [9]. Group 3: Fundamental Factors - Optimism surrounding trade agreements and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are influencing gold prices, with expectations of a bullish market during the rate-cutting cycle [7]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive easing policies than currently predicted, which could further support gold prices [7]. - The geopolitical landscape and ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are critical factors that could lead to either a rebound in gold prices or further declines depending on the outcomes [4][6]. Group 4: Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3324 and $3304, while resistance levels are at $3340 and $3357 [11]. - For silver, support is noted at $37.80 and $37.40, with resistance at $38.45 and $38.70 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing pressure due to a strong US dollar and optimistic economic data from the US, with gold prices expected to maintain a range-bound movement before potentially rising [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices have dropped 0.5% this week, trading above $3,330 [3]. - The dollar index is expected to achieve its second consecutive week of gains, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers [3]. - Recent US economic data shows a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales for June, exceeding market expectations [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims decreased by 7,000 to 221,000, better than the forecast of 235,000 [3]. - These positive indicators suggest a solid US economic foundation, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy adjustments [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Short-term gold prices are fluctuating within the $3,377 to $3,320 range, with a potential breakout indicating initial directional signals [3][4]. - The $3,320 to $3,300 area is expected to provide solid support, aiding gold in challenging the upper range of $3,373 to $3,377 [4]. - If gold breaks above this range, it could target psychological resistance at $3,400 and the June 16 high of $3,452 [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite recent weakness, gold has not firmly broken below the 10-week moving average support, indicating a potential for upward movement after a period of consolidation [4]. - The daily chart shows a rebound from recent lows, maintaining support above the 60-day moving average, suggesting continued range-bound adjustments [4][5]. - Key support levels to watch are around $3,330 and $3,320, while resistance is noted at $3,445 and $3,460 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and geopolitical tensions, leading to a shift in consumer behavior towards bank gold purchases over traditional jewelry stores [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold price fluctuated between $3,300 and $3,380, with a closing price of $1,986.65 per ounce on July 15, translating to approximately 459 yuan per gram in the domestic market [7]. - The construction bank's gold repurchase window is seeing long queues, indicating a preference for bank gold bars, which are perceived as more profitable compared to jewelry store buyback prices [5][8]. - The World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in the first quarter, with China's central bank increasing its reserves by 6 tons in June, highlighting a trend of institutional accumulation [7]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly opting for bank gold bars due to lower costs and better returns, as illustrated by a customer who calculated a significant difference in processing fees between bank gold and jewelry store purchases [8]. - A customer expressed regret over selling gold jewelry back to a store at a loss, emphasizing the growing awareness of the financial implications of gold purchases [3]. - The contrasting experiences at jewelry stores, where foot traffic is declining, versus banks, where demand is rising, reflect a shift in consumer sentiment towards gold investments [5][8]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have not sustained upward pressure on gold prices, as evidenced by a brief price increase followed by a rapid decline [7]. - The Federal Reserve's stance on inflation control remains a critical factor affecting market expectations, with recent inflation data dampening hopes for imminent interest rate cuts [8].

Core Insights - Gold prices have been on a steady rise since the beginning of 2025, with significant year-to-date increases across various markets, including a 25.84% rise in London gold prices and a 25.52% rise in COMEX gold prices as of June 30 [1][4] - The performance of A-share gold mining companies has improved in line with rising gold prices, with all seven listed companies that released half-year performance forecasts expecting year-on-year profit increases, the highest being Western Gold with an expected increase of 141.66% [1][2] Company Performance - Among the seven companies that disclosed performance forecasts, Hunan Gold is expected to have a net profit of less than 1 billion yuan, while the other six companies anticipate profits exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Zijin Mining Group projecting approximately 23.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 8.1 billion yuan from the previous year [2] - The performance forecast for China National Gold is expected to show a net profit growth of 50% to 65%, leading to a significant stock price increase of 9.73% on the first trading day after the announcement [3] Market Trends - The gold market is expected to remain strong in the second half of 2025, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions, loose monetary policies, and increased gold reserves by central banks, although there may be short-term adjustment pressures [4][5] - Analysts predict that the international gold price will fluctuate between 3,000 and 3,500 USD per ounce in the second half of the year, with gold maintaining its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty [5] Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to consider gold as a strategic asset for hedging against economic uncertainties, with recommendations to gradually build positions during market adjustments [5] - Caution is advised for ordinary investors entering the gold market at current high price levels, emphasizing the importance of rational asset allocation to avoid increased financial risks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on gold prices due to the strong rebound of the US dollar and questions whether gold can maintain the key support level of $3,300 [1] Group 1 - The US dollar's strong rebound is impacting gold prices negatively [1] - There is a focus on whether gold can hold the $3,300 threshold amidst current market conditions [1]

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