Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, egg prices rebounded from a low level. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 3146 yuan per 500 kilograms, a increase of 60 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - Egg prices are at a low level, and the breeding side has a certain sentiment of supporting prices. Coupled with the drop in temperature, which is conducive to the storage and transportation of eggs, the sales speed in low - price areas has accelerated, supporting the rebound of spot prices. Under the boost of rising spot prices, the near - month contracts have also strengthened significantly. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still high, and old hens have not been over - culled. High production capacity is still the main concern of the market, which may limit the upside space [6]. - The egg futures price has shown a low - level rebound trend recently. However, the pressure of high production capacity still exists, which may limit the rebound space [6]. - The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and pay attention to the amount of old hen culling [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The 2512 contract of eggs rebounded from a low level, with the closing price at 3146 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 60 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Low egg prices, favorable storage conditions, and increased sales speed support the spot price rebound. But high laying - hen inventory and non - over - culled old hens may limit the upside [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, focus on old hen culling volume [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 12 - contract of egg futures rebounded from a low level. The position was 176,581 lots, a decrease of 57,622 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 8860, and the net short position decreased slightly compared to last week's - 22,065 [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 2933 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 11 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active 12 - contract futures price and the spot average price was - 213 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of eggs was - 148 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a low level in the same period [26]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of October 30, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.96 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 5.3 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory and Restocking**: As of September 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The national new - chick index was 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [38]. - **Culling Index and Age**: As of September 30, 2025, the national culling laying - hen index was 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The national culling - hen age was 507 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of October 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2242.16 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2980 yuan per ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of October 24, 2025, the laying - hen breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53]. - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of October 24, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 2.65 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was 8.58 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In September 2025, China's egg export volume was 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1631.15 tons compared to the same period last year (11,584.64 tons), a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared to the previous month [63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply side of laying hens is still at a high level, with the national laying hen inventory in September being 1.368 billion, higher than expected. The demand side is generally weak. In the short - term, without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the recent increase in the number of culled chickens and downstream restocking have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Futures prices: JD01 closed at 3353, down 15 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3457, down 20; JD09 closed at 3847, down 16 [2]. - Spread: 01 - 05 spread was - 104, up 5; 05 - 09 spread was - 390, down 4; 09 - 01 spread was 494, down 1 [2]. - Ratio: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, unchanged; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.12, down 0.01. Similar trends were seen in other contracts [2]. 2. Spot Market - Egg prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, both unchanged from the previous day. Most mainstream prices across the country remained stable [2][4]. - Culled chicken prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 4 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [6]. - Profit calculation: The profit per chicken was 0.28 yuan, down 0.03 yuan from the previous day. The chicken苗 price was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan. Feed prices were mostly stable [2]. 3. Fundamental Information - Production area prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, both unchanged. Most mainstream prices across the country remained stable, and egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [4]. - Laying hen inventory: In September, the national laying hen inventory was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. The estimated inventory from October 2025 to January 2026 is 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [5]. - Chicken苗 output: In September, the monthly output of chicken苗 from sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease [5]. - Culled chicken volume: From October 24th to the previous week, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 20.02 million, a 1.4% decrease. The average culling age was 499 days, unchanged [5]. - Egg sales volume: As of October 25th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7498 tons, a 1.6% increase from the previous week [5]. - Profit: As of October 23rd, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 24th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 0.51 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - Inventory: As of October 17th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, unchanged [6]. 4. Trading Logic - Supply is high and demand is weak. In the short - term, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the recent increase in culled chickens and downstream restocking have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [7]. 5. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [8]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows a predominantly positive trend, with egg futures experiencing a price increase of 1.71%, reaching a high of 3181.00 yuan per 500 kg [1] - The current egg market is characterized by a stable consumption at the terminal level, with traders purchasing based on demand, leading to stable prices in various markets [2] - There is no clear indication of excess capacity being eliminated, and the future price trends of eggs will depend on changes in the willingness to restock and cull in the breeding sector [2] Group 2 - The medium to long-term egg production capacity remains relatively loose, indicating a need for further capacity reduction in the industry [2] - Recent price trends post-holidays confirm previous bearish outlooks, with an increase in the culling of hens, suggesting a potential for short-term participation in positive spreads [2] - Current national egg prices are stabilizing, influenced by weather conditions that facilitate storage, while both the breeding and trading sectors exhibit a cautious stance, leading to a likely short-term oscillation in prices [2]

Core Insights - On October 24, egg futures saw a significant increase, with the main contract rising over 3%, indicating a strong short-term market trend [1] - The average price of eggs in major production areas was 2.83 yuan per jin, up 0.05 yuan from the previous day, while in major sales areas, the average price was 3.04 yuan per jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan [1] - National inventory levels showed a slight decline, with production stage average inventory at 1.03 days, down 0.01 days, and circulation stage inventory at 1.1 days, down 0.02 days [1] Production and Supply - As of the end of September, the national laying hen stock was approximately 1.368 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [1] - High production capacity remains a focal point, with older hens not being culled aggressively, which may pressure egg prices and near-term contracts [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Continuous losses in the industry are reducing the willingness to replenish stocks, which could benefit long-term prices [1] - There is a tendency for profit-taking among previous short positions, leading to a rebound in prices, although high production capacity may limit the extent of this rebound [1] - Technical analysis suggests that all contracts remain weak, with prices at historical lows and supply pressures expected to persist [1] - The earliest potential turning point for the medium to long-term fundamentals may appear in early next year, with attention on weekly culling data [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - High egg production capacity remains the main concern in the market, with high in - production laying hen inventory and no over - culling of old hens. Post - holiday consumption seasonally weakens, leading to poor terminal digestion, cautious purchasing by traders, which drags down the egg market and suppresses near - month contracts. However, continuous losses reduce market replenishment enthusiasm, which is beneficial to forward prices. There is a tendency for previous short positions to take profits and exit the market, causing the futures price to rebound at a low level. But high production capacity pressure may limit the rebound space. The far - month contract may perform stronger than the near - month contract due to the logic of production capacity reduction [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3027 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 102; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 24073 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9306; the egg futures spread between January and May contracts is - 126 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 55; the futures open interest of the active contract is 247685 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 11145; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots, with no week - on - week change [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 2.87 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03; the basis (spot - futures) is - 161 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week decrease of 71 [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 115.26 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 0.86; the national culled laying hen index is 124.63 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 31.02; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.6 yuan/chick, with no week - on - week change; the national new chick index is 76.65 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 3.3; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.75 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.46 yuan/hen, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 8.64 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.28; the national average age of culled hens is 507 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.62 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.1; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.3 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day increase of 0.13; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.72 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.05 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.45; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13121.03 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 264.92 [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas is 7179 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 442 [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 5.64 yuan/kg, up 0.06 from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.51 yuan/kg, up 0.20 from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.14 yuan/kg, up 0.20 from yesterday. The in - production laying hen inventory remains high, old hens have not been over - culled, high production capacity is the main market concern, post - holiday consumption seasonally weakens, terminal digestion is poor, and traders are cautious in purchasing [2]

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is in an off - season with supply exceeding demand. The overall supply pressure is large due to high - level operation of production capacity, slowdown in new replenishment, continuous start - up of previous replenishment, and ineffective removal of backward production capacity. Demand support is not obvious. Cost has slightly declined, but the breeding profit has returned to a loss. The market maintains a near - weak and far - strong structure, and it is recommended to hold short positions before the festival and pay attention to fund management [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Review - Egg futures fluctuated weakly last week, high in the front and low in the back. Affected by the spot, they maintained a near - weak and far - strong pattern. All contracts are at a premium to the spot and are constantly repairing the basis through price drops [6]. 3.2 Spot Review - Last week, the egg spot bottomed out and rebounded. After the post - holiday decline, the sales areas started to replenish stocks. With the temperature drop, the production areas were reluctant to sell. Currently, the benchmark spot price is fluctuating around 2.5 yuan per catty, at a historical low. The market is under pressure again and is constantly searching for the bottom [12]. 3.3 Supply - Newly - added production capacity: From August to November 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from April to July 2025. The replenishment volume has a seasonal decline, and the newly - added production capacity from August to November has dropped significantly. The chick price has dropped significantly, and the enthusiasm for replenishment has decreased, affecting the newly - added supply in the fourth quarter. - Eliminated production capacity: From August to November 2025, the normal eliminated production capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from March to June 2024. The data shows a high elimination volume, but there is an obvious delay in elimination currently. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory data continued to increase slightly but started to decrease in September. The newly - added is stable with a slight decline, and the elimination is relatively slow. The overall supply pressure still exists, but it is expected to ease in the fourth quarter [17]. 3.4 Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens has stabilized, the elimination volume has continued to increase, and the average elimination age has shown a weakening trend. The price of eliminated chickens is 4.22 yuan per catty (- 0.08), the elimination price has stabilized with a slight rebound; the elimination volume has continued to increase, and it has entered an accelerated elimination stage; the elimination age is 498 days, a weekly decrease of 2 days, indicating a loosening in elimination [20]. 3.5 Seasonal and Consumption - Seasonally, it is an off - season, and the price has a seasonal decline and is hitting the bottom again. The production areas currently have little inventory pressure and a strong willingness to stockpile. After the festival, the stocking is over, the rigid demand support has weakened, and the price has declined [23]. 3.6 Substitute Products - Vegetables: There has been obvious low - temperature precipitation across the country, and vegetable prices are relatively strong. - Pork: The price is at a low level and searching for the bottom, which has an obvious suppressing effect on eggs. - Other meats: The prices of other meats have strengthened at this stage [25]. 3.7 Cost & Profit - Cost side: The price of corn has dropped significantly, and the spot price of soybean meal has fluctuated weakly. The overall cost has maintained a fluctuating decline. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty. - Breeding profit: Recently, the spot price of eggs has had a seasonal decline. Although the cost side has fluctuated downwards, the decline in the egg spot price is obvious, and the profit has turned into a loss again and returned to a weak state [27]. 3.8 Capital - After the capital reached a high level and then declined, it has entered the market again. Old long - position holders have stopped losses, and new long - position holders have entered the market, waiting for the arrival of the cycle conversion [33]. 3.9 Basis - The basis is negative, the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the market shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern [37]. 3.10 Spread Trend - The spot price has reached a peak and then maintained a shock. The futures market is generally in a positive market, with a near - weak and far - strong, reverse - spread structure [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Ih2601 contract for live pigs is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decrease. The supply of live pigs is increasing due to the high inventory of breeding sows and the recovery of production performance. The demand is expected to be seasonally strong, but the rebound space of pig prices in the second half of 2025 is limited, and the overall price will still be under pressure. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and insufficient demand acceptance lead to weak market sentiment. It is recommended to sell short on rallies [3]. - The jd2601 contract for eggs is also in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decrease. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year-on-year, and the supply pressure continues to weigh on prices. The demand has seasonal changes within the year, but the fluctuation range is limited. Considering the cost and profit issues, the egg price is expected to remain at a low level. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to limit the demand acceptance, and the price will still be under pressure. It is recommended to sell short on rallies [3]. Summary by Directory Pig Section - **Supply Analysis** - The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the normal level of 30 million. The supply of live pigs will remain high until the first half of 2026. The出栏 rhythm of farmers may affect the short - term supply [11]. - After the previous active selling by farmers, the large - sized pigs have been digested. The出栏 weight has decreased slightly, but due to the cold weather and the strong price difference between fat and standard pigs, the decrease in出栏 weight is expected to be limited, and the weight will still remain at a relatively high level [12]. - **Demand Analysis** - As the weather turns cooler, the downstream demand has rebounded slightly, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. In addition to the actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term demand, but the secondary fattening sentiment has declined after the recent price rebound [25]. - **Cost and Profit Analysis** - As of October 16, the breeding cost of self - breeding and self - raising scale farms is 12.49 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets is 14.39 yuan/kg. The breeding enterprises are in a loss state, and the production capacity has been reduced to some extent [35]. - **Policy Analysis** - The state has carried out central pork reserve purchase and storage work to regulate market supply and demand and ensure the stable operation of the pig market. In the case of excessive price decline, the third batch of central pork reserve purchase and storage work will be launched [42]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads and bases of live pigs, such as the 09, 01, 05, 03, 11, 07, 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 3 - 5, 5 - 7, 1 - 3, 7 - 9, 9 - 11, 11 - 1 spreads and bases in Henan [50][56][65]. Egg Section - **Supply Analysis** - The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the number of new - hatched chickens in the fourth quarter will decrease. At the same time, the number of culled chickens has increased, so the inventory of laying hens in the fourth quarter may decline, but it will still remain at a high level year - on - year, and the egg supply is sufficient [72]. - Recently, the replenishment has weakened, and the number of culled chickens has increased, which has alleviated the supply pressure to some extent, but the inventory of laying hens is still high [73]. - **Cost Analysis** - Recently, the feed cost has decreased, and the breeding cost has also weakened. Currently, the breeding cost is about 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [74]. - **Demand Analysis** - In the long - term, the egg consumption is related to population, economy, and consumer preferences. In the short - and medium - term, the egg demand has obvious seasonality, with peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, the downstream low - price replenishment and e - commerce promotions have provided some support [83][84]. - **Substitute and Inventory Analysis** - The report provides data on the prices of main meats and vegetables, as well as the inventory days of eggs in the production and circulation links [97]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads and bases of eggs, such as the 5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1 spreads and the 10, 12, 11, 01, 05, 09 bases in Hebei [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, with the national inventory of laying hens in September reaching 1.368 billion, higher than expected. The demand is generally weak. In the short - term, without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. Near - month contracts are likely to oscillate weakly, and one can consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas is 2.8 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.09 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country have declined [6]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In September, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million. It is estimated that the inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 will be approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - **Hen Culling**: In the week of October 16, the number of culled hens in the main producing areas was 20.32 million, a 2.8% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 499 days, the same as the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales**: As of October 17, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7,374 tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of October 17, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 0.51 yuan/hen, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days from the previous week [8]. - **Culled Hen Price**: The average price of culled hens in the main producing areas is 4.19 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [8]. 3.2 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens is high, and the demand is generally weak. Without significant improvement in the short - term, egg prices are expected to be weak, and near - month contracts are likely to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [10]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand situation of eggs is characterized by an overall loose pattern. In the short - term, egg supply shows no significant decline, demand has no sign of recovery, and the market is in a seasonal consumption slump after the National Day holiday, so both futures and spot prices may continue weak and volatile. In the medium - term, prices will be restricted until the inventory is reduced and demand recovers [8][62]. 3. Summary by Directory I.走势回顾 - **Futures Price**: Last week, the egg futures market was weak. The main contract was shifting to JD2512. As of last Friday's close, the main JD2511 contract was at 2,805 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.02%, with a trading volume of 157,777 lots and an open interest of 171,242 lots. The JD2512 contract was at 2,959 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.04% [5][14]. - **Spot Price**: Last week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan per catty, and in the main selling areas was 2.91 yuan per catty. At the beginning of the week, due to continuous rain in many places, terminal demand was weak, and inventory increased, causing egg prices to fall below the feed cost line. In the middle of the week, as the weather improved, downstream replenishment increased, inventory decreased, and prices rebounded slightly, but the overall supply - demand situation remained loose [7][19]. - **Chick Price**: Last week, the average price of commercial chicks in key national regions was 2.76 yuan per chick, down 0.03 yuan per chick from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 1.08% and a year - on - year decline of 23.12%. The chick market was oversupplied, and farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment was low [23]. - **Old Hen Price**: Last week, the average price of old hens in representative markets was 4.43 yuan per catty, down 0.14 yuan per catty, a decline of 3.06%. After the holiday, as egg prices weakened, farmers' enthusiasm for culling old hens increased. As prices fell to a low level, farmers became reluctant to sell, and the supply pressure eased [28]. II. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In September, the inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.313 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.87%. The number of newly - laid hens in October is expected to decline compared to September [31]. - **Producing Area Shipment Volume**: Last week, the shipment volume in the main producing areas was 6,015.19 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.94%. As egg prices fell, farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and some traders and cold storage started to stock up, leading to an increase in shipment volume [37]. - **Old Hen Culling**: Last week, the total culling volume of old hens in sample points was 600,100, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%. The average culling age was 497 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week. Farmers were not confident about the future market and culled old hens in a timely manner [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Selling Area Sales Volume**: Last week, egg sales were 6,207.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.18%. Sales were affected by the seasonal off - season. As prices fell to a low level, the market's bottom - fishing sentiment increased, and sales recovered moderately [45]. - **Selling Area Arrival Volume**: Last week, the arrival volume in the Beijing market was 92 trucks, a month - on - month increase of 6 trucks, an increase of 6.98%. The arrival volume in the Guangdong market was 453 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 20 trucks, a decrease of 4.23%. The arrival volume in different markets showed differentiation [49]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens was 2.0717 million, a month - on - month decrease of 256,500, a decline of 11.02%. Slaughter enterprises operated cautiously. If terminal demand does not improve significantly, the slaughter volume may remain low in the short term [50][52]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 1.29 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous day, a decrease of 2.27%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, a decrease of 0.11 days from the previous day, a decrease of 7.86% [56]. - **Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit**: Last week, the cost of laying hen farming was 3.42 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty, a decline of 0.87%. The farming profit was - 0.56 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26 yuan per catty, a decline of 86.67% [60]. III.后市展望 - In the short - term, egg supply shows no significant decline, demand has no sign of recovery, and the market is in a seasonal consumption slump after the National Day holiday, so both futures and spot prices may continue weak and volatile. In the medium - term, prices will be restricted until the inventory is reduced and demand recovers [8][62]. IV.操作策略 - **Single - side**: Hold short positions cautiously. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Construct a bear spread strategy [9][63].