瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 鸡蛋市场周报 存栏压力牵制下 期价维持低位震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡微涨，09合约收盘价为3788元/500千克，较前一周+21元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：玉米现货价格坚挺对鸡蛋成本有支撑，且连续走低后，蛋价处于年内地位，市场逢低 有补货需求，且端午节前备货或带来一定的支撑，现货价格有止跌回弹倾向。不过，目前蛋鸡存 栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压力较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足，供强需弱格局难改，或限 制其上涨空间。如果后期现货价格持续偏低，或将迫使老鸡淘汰积极性提升和降低补栏积极性， 对远期价格有所利好，关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。盘面来看，期价跌至前期低位后，总体 跌势放缓。 Ø 策略建议：短期观望为主。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 1、周度要点 ...

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 5 月 14 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成 ...

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 5 月 12 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 目前在产蛋鸡存栏处于增长的趋势之中，根据卓创资讯，截至 4 月末，全国 在产蛋鸡月度存栏量约 13.29 只，3 月末为 13.18 亿只，2 月末为 13.06 亿 ...

华联期货分析称，节后下游终端购买力度有所减弱，经销商多为规避风险拿货偏谨慎，库存压力再现， 蛋价承压下探。5月新开产蛋鸡多为2025年1月前后补栏鸡苗，此阶段临近春节，养殖单位补栏相对谨 慎，鸡苗销量环比微降，预计5月开产蛋鸡数量环比减少，但当前可淘汰老鸡不多，全国在产蛋鸡存栏 量依旧在高位运行，供应中期相对宽裕，市场观望情绪浓厚。06合约或延续区间宽幅震荡，压力位参考 3100，支撑位2900。期权方面，可卖出虚值看涨期权。 正信期货表示，基于鸡蛋基本面周期的分析，判断当前所处位置与2020年上半年的情况较为类似，在养 殖利润出现亏损导致产能出清之前，鸡蛋期货近弱远强格局有望延续。操作上，建议暂观望，等待反套 时机。 五矿期货指出，假期国内蛋价整体表现平稳，局部小幅下跌，黑山报价持平于2.9元/斤，馆陶落0.06元 至2.87元/斤，供应持续增多，5月份蛋价或依旧偏弱，当中节后有小幅补库需求或导致蛋价小涨，但供 应压制，且随着气温升高和需求回落，蛋价整体趋势或维持向下。假期鸡蛋走货尚可，但库存偏稳定， 价格持平或小落，整体新开产的压力大过需求备货的支撑，印证供应依旧主导当前蛋价，随着气温升高 和新开产压力的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the egg industry is "oscillating" [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises decreased slightly, the culling age decreased slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs remained basically the same, and the price of chicks continued to decline from a high level. - Due to the limited time this year when egg prices fell below feed costs, most breeding farms chose to extend the breeding period or molt the hens. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, egg supply was tight, but after May Day, with molting hens starting to lay eggs and the arrival of the rainy season in the South, there may be a situation of strong supply and weak demand. - Recently, the inventory pressure in the sales areas has increased. Egg traders mainly purchase based on rigid demand, and the sales in the production areas are slow, but the festival effect still provides short - term support. - The breeding profit has dropped significantly and is lower than the average level of the past four years. Currently, it is near the break - even point. If continuous losses occur, farmers may accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity. - The egg basis has decreased slightly this week, and the near - month futures contracts are still slightly at a discount. The current price difference between the near - term and far - term egg futures is at a medium level. From the perspective of positions, the net short position of institutional investors in the main egg futures contract shows an oscillating state. - Based on the analysis of the egg fundamental cycle, the current situation is similar to that in the first half of 2020. Before the production capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of weak near - term and strong far - term egg futures is expected to continue. It is recommended to wait and observe for reverse arbitrage opportunities [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - It includes sub - sections on spot prices, egg basis, egg price differences, and futures institutional net positions [3][6][9][12] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as laying hen inventory, culling situation, replenishment situation, and the situation of large and small eggs [14][16][19][21] Demand Analysis - Consists of sub - sections on shipping volume and sales volume, inventory, and substitutes [24][27][30] Profit Analysis - Includes breeding profit and egg - feed price ratio [33][36]

Report Overview - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of eggs has been weak this week. After two weeks of strength after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the market needs adjustment, and the decline in the production area exceeded expectations. Although there should be some support before May Day, the market is still weak. Attention should be paid to the demand digestion after May Day [8]. - In the futures market, affected by the weak spot, it fluctuated and declined this week. The main contract 06 fell from 3080 to around 3000. Due to the hard - to - falsify expectation of the rainy season, it may enter the delivery month with a high premium. If the spot cannot continue to rise, the futures may correct. Attention should be paid to the change of the basis. Currently, the basis of 06 is not much different from previous years, and the futures pricing is relatively reasonable [8]. - For the far - month contracts 08 and 09, their pricing is at a moderately low level in history, corresponding to the expectation of increasing egg production in the future. Attention should be paid to whether the spot can stabilize after May Day. If it continues to be weak, combined with the expectation of price decline during the rainy season, the near - month contracts are not optimistic [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of eggs in futures contracts 2505, 2506, and 2507 all rose, with increases of 1.54%, 0.37%, and 0.55% respectively. The trading volume of contract 2506 was 144,043, and the trading volume of contract 2507 was 26,337. The spot price of eggs nationwide declined, with the average price in the main production area at 3.33 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales area at 3.53 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Analysis and Suggestions**: The spot price of eggs has been weak this week. The production area's decline exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment is low. Although there should be support before May Day, the market is still weak. In the futures market, affected by the weak spot, it fluctuated and declined this week. The main contract 06 fell. If the spot cannot rise, the futures may correct. Attention should be paid to the basis change. The far - month contracts 08 and 09 are priced at a moderately low level, and attention should be paid to the spot trend after May Day [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on the rise. As of the end of March, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.318 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [9]. - The monthly output of day - old chicks in sample enterprises in March was about 46.33 million, showing an increase compared with February and continuing to grow compared with the same period in 2024, ranking at a medium level in the past seven years [9]. - The number of culled chickens has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, with the absolute value slightly higher than in the previous two years. However, the culling volume has decreased in the past two weeks. As of April 24, the average age of culled chickens was 536 days, the same as last week and 2 days earlier than last month [9][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, the average price of eggs in the main production area, the seasonal trend of egg contract 05, the basis of egg contract 05, and the price difference between egg contracts 05 and 06 [12][15][18].