Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by a combination of strong dollar performance, developments in US-EU trade agreements, and geopolitical tensions, with potential implications for future investment strategies in gold [3][4][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices showed a rebound after hitting a low of $3320 per ounce, currently trading around $3335 per ounce, following a nearly 1% decline last Friday [1]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a strong dollar and optimistic sentiment regarding US-EU trade agreements [1][3]. Group 2: Dollar Strength and Its Impact - The dollar index rebounded from a two-week low, increasing the holding costs of gold for non-dollar investors, which contributed to the recent drop in gold prices [3]. - Despite short-term support for the dollar from economic data and trade negotiations, it recorded its largest weekly decline in a month, indicating potential limitations on further dollar appreciation [3]. Group 3: US-EU Trade Agreement - The recent US-EU trade agreement, which includes a 15% tariff on EU goods and commitments from the EU to increase investments in the US, has reduced market uncertainty and diminished gold's appeal as a safe haven [4]. - The agreement's details have sparked controversy, with some European leaders criticizing it as unbalanced, which may leave room for future trade conflicts and potentially revive gold's safe-haven demand [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, such as conflicts in Thailand and Cambodia, and tensions in the Middle East, continue to provide long-term support for gold prices despite short-term declines in safe-haven demand [6]. - Central banks globally are increasing gold reserves to reduce reliance on the dollar, which is expected to sustain long-term demand for gold [6]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Policies - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a critical factor influencing gold prices, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting [7]. - Political pressures on the Federal Reserve could impact its independence and create downward risks for the dollar, indirectly supporting gold prices [7]. Group 6: Upcoming Key Events - A series of important economic data releases and central bank meetings are scheduled, which may provide insights into future Federal Reserve policies and influence gold price movements [9][10][11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-Japan tariff agreement has significantly impacted gold's safe-haven demand, leading to a drop in gold prices despite a weakening dollar [5][8]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, international spot gold opened at $3431.03, peaked at $3438.54, and closed at $3386.89, marking a decrease of 1.30% with a trading range of 1.67% [1]. - The US dollar index opened at 97.34, reached a high of 97.61, and closed at 97.19, down 0.17% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 7221.46, closed at 7165.77, down 0.83% [3]. Tariff Agreement Impact - The US imposed a 15% tariff on Japan, which agreed not to retaliate and pledged $550 billion in investments in the US, indicating a perceived victory for the US in trade negotiations [5]. - The market speculates that a similar outcome may occur in upcoming negotiations with the EU, potentially reducing the need for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][8]. Technical Analysis - The gold market is at a critical juncture, with potential for a breakout or significant decline depending on market conditions and the dollar's performance [11]. - If gold prices confirm a breakout above certain resistance levels, a new upward trend may emerge; otherwise, a significant drop could occur [11]. Domestic Market Dynamics - In the Shanghai gold market, the AUTD gold price has seen an increase in discount relative to theoretical RMB prices, indicating strong selling pressure [13]. - The futures market shows a greater premium over spot prices, suggesting that while there is a strong desire to reduce inventory, speculative pressure remains low [14]. ETF Holdings Trends - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, has maintained high levels of holdings, reflecting a consistent trend with gold prices, while the largest silver ETF, Ishares, has seen a stronger accumulation trend, indicating a divergence in market performance [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the international gold price is expected to fluctuate between $3,150 and $3,500 per ounce in the short term [1][2] - Recent gold market activity shows London gold fluctuating between $3,250 and $3,450 per ounce, influenced by U.S. tariff agreements with multiple countries [1] - The U.S. economy remains resilient with inflation and retail sales data exceeding expectations, leading to market speculation that interest rates may not decrease in July [1] Group 2 - High gold prices are suppressing physical gold consumption and investment enthusiasm, with U.S. Mint gold coin sales dropping from 64,000 ounces in January to only 7,500 ounces in May [2] - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with China's central bank increasing its reserves by 7 tons in June, which supports long-term gold prices [2] - Despite a recent decline in gold ETF inflows, global ETF holdings remain significantly below historical highs, indicating potential for renewed investment if gold prices continue to rise [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility due to multiple factors including progress in US-EU tariff agreements, a rebound in risk assets, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Agreements Impact - The decline in gold prices is attributed to market expectations of easing trade tensions, highlighted by a trade agreement between the US and Japan, which reduced auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15% and included a commitment from Japan to invest $550 billion in the US [3]. - The EU is also nearing a similar agreement with the US, potentially setting the baseline tariff for EU goods at 15%, alleviating fears of a 30% tariff increase on August 1 [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risk Assets - Optimism surrounding trade agreements has led to a rally in risk assets, with major US stock indices reaching new closing highs and significant gains in European automotive stocks [4]. - As a result, funds have shifted from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier investments, putting downward pressure on gold prices [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - There is growing concern regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, with President Trump publicly criticizing Chairman Powell for maintaining high interest rates, which could influence future monetary policy [4][5]. - Current market expectations for a rate cut in September stand at 58%, indicating a divided outlook on future Fed actions [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Technically, gold prices are struggling to maintain levels above $3400, with potential declines to the $3350-$3330 range if the price falls below the July 16 high of $3377.17 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the recent pullback in gold prices may be a healthy profit-taking phase, with long-term bullish factors still in play, including geopolitical risks and US debt issues [6]. - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by three main factors: progress on trade agreements, signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, and upcoming economic data releases [8][9][10].

Fundamental Analysis - The trade agreement between the Trump administration and Japan has reduced tariffs on automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. This agreement serves as a template for tariff policies and has led to a rally in Asian stock markets, diminishing the demand for gold as a safe haven [3]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have emerged, as a Reuters survey indicates that most economists believe there will be no interest rate cut in July. President Trump has publicly criticized Fed Chairman Powell, raising fears about the Fed's autonomy. If the Fed is forced to cut rates aggressively, it could lead to soaring inflation, which would support gold prices. Currently, the market anticipates a 58% probability of a rate cut in September, resulting in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments for gold [3]. - Key economic events to watch include the European Central Bank's interest rate decision at 20:15, a press conference by ECB President Lagarde at 20:45, and U.S. initial jobless claims data at 20:30 [3]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant drop after three consecutive days of gains, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. The recent low is near the 5-day moving average, and the price is currently below this average, indicating a potential weakening trend. Key support levels to monitor are around 3365/3360, with further support at trendline levels of 3334 and 3320 if the decline continues [4]. - On the four-hour chart, after a drop to 3381, gold showed a slight rebound. The price needs to stay above 3381 for a potential upward movement, with resistance levels at 3410, 3417, and 3426/3427, corresponding to Fibonacci retracement levels. If the price declines, support levels to watch are at 3374, 3359, and 3337 [6]. Summary of Key Levels - Support levels to monitor include 3381, 3374, 3365/3359, 3337/3334, and 3320. Resistance levels to watch are 3410, 3417, 3426/3427, and 3438/3439 [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing a strong rebound after a recent dip, but the market remains in a volatile state without a clear directional breakout [1][4] - Support levels for gold are identified at $3345 and $3331, while resistance is noted at $3375, with a potential upward target of $3400 [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies, which have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have reached a one-month high, with short-term fluctuations showing strength, supported by a recent high of $3377 and a lower support level at $3362 [4] - The upward pressure on gold is linked to the potential breakdown of U.S.-EU trade negotiations, which has heightened market risk aversion [4] - Technical indicators suggest a bullish short-term outlook for gold, although there are signs of potential adjustments after consecutive rebounds [4]

Group 1 - As of July 21, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 947.06 tons of gold, an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On July 21, spot gold rebounded strongly, briefly surpassing $3,400 per ounce, marking the highest level in a month, and ultimately closing at $3,396.93 per ounce, up $47.09 or 1.41% [2] - The significant drop in the US dollar, which fell to a low of 97.70, was a key factor driving the rebound in non-US currencies and spot gold [2] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold until September, despite speculation about earlier rate cuts due to rising economic risks and limited inflation impact from tariffs [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has increased gold's safe-haven demand, with the US Commerce Secretary expressing confidence in reaching a trade agreement with the EU before the August 1 tariff deadline [3] - Analysts from ANZ Bank noted that high inflation expectations and strong economic data are influencing the anticipated number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are holding above all major simple moving averages (SMA), with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising above the midpoint [3] - The next upward target for gold is the $3,400 level, with a confirmed breakout potentially opening up further upward space towards the static resistance level of around $3,440 [3] - The short-term support level for gold is near $3,330, which coincides with the 21-day and 50-day moving averages [4]

Fundamental Analysis - The trade war between the US and EU is intensifying, with Trump threatening to impose tariffs of up to 30% on EU products starting August 1, which has raised concerns about the potential breakdown of trade negotiations and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have risen to 59%, with October rate cut expectations fully priced in, contributing to gold's appeal amid policy uncertainty [3] - Key events to watch include speeches from Bank of England officials and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which may influence market sentiment [3] Technical Analysis - The daily trend for gold is currently characterized as "strongly bullish," with a significant upward movement observed on Monday, indicating short-term bullish momentum [4] - Key support levels identified are 3365-3360 and 3345, which are critical for maintaining the bullish trend [4][5] - Resistance levels are noted at 3420 and 3428, with a breakthrough of these levels potentially opening up further upside for gold prices [5][6] Short-Term Outlook - The four-hour analysis confirms a continuation of the bullish trend, with critical support at 3377-3374, which needs to hold for the bullish momentum to persist [8] - The first resistance level to monitor is around 3408-3410, which is a significant Fibonacci retracement level [8] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases and events to monitor include the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting minutes, UK economic stability report discussions, and US manufacturing index data [9]

Group 1 - The current trading price of London gold is around $3355.30 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.18% [1] - The highest and lowest trading points for London gold today are $3358.42 and $3344.72 per ounce, respectively [1] - Analysts suggest that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs may increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - The deadline for countries to start paying tariffs to the U.S. is August 1, which may lead to increased gold prices due to uncertainty [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with a 94% probability of no change and a 6% probability of a 25 basis point cut [2] - The market's risk appetite has significantly improved, which may weaken the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3360, $3380, and $3400, while support levels are at $3330, $3300, and $3280 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic conditions will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE ratio lead to increased volatility, and in Q3, attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: US economic data support the Fed to delay interest - rate cuts, which pressures gold prices. But the easing of Sino - US trade relations and overseas economic recovery weaken the US dollar's safe - haven demand, supporting gold prices. London gold oscillates between $3300 - 3380 per ounce, and silver with strong industrial attributes rises. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policy. It is recommended to hold a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade situation and US fiscal expansion reduce gold's demand, but Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks support it. In June, speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view and participate with medium - low positions. Short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, with data from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US retail sales in June rebounded more than expected, and initial jobless claims reached the lowest level since April, providing reasons for the Fed to delay interest - rate cuts [17]. - The US will impose a 93.5% preliminary anti - dumping duty on anode - grade graphite imported from China [17]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Daly expects two rate cuts by the end of the year, Waller believes the Fed should cut rates at the end of the month, while Kugler thinks the Fed should not cut rates for some time [18].