重点事件点评&重点关注：人形机器人、AI 基建 事件 1-何小鹏：人形机器人将是巨头的竞争：2025 年 12 月 17 日，小鹏汽 车 CEO 何小鹏在微博发文称，人形机器人将来会是巨头的竞争，而不同的专 用机器人则会有大量不同领域的选手，且会有非常多的成功机会。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 2025年12月23日 制造成长周报（第 39 期） 优于大市 何小鹏称人形机器人是巨头竞争，持续关注 AI 基建燃机及液 冷投资机会 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 行业研究·行业周报 机械设备 AI 基建-燃机点评：以万泽股份、应流股份为代表的企业卡位核心，在燃气 轮机客户的认可度持续提升，未来有望显著受益于数据中心缺电带来的发展 机遇。我们认为 AI 算力仍然是需求确定性高增长的投资主线，持续看好 AI 基建相关产业链，电力将逐渐成为 AI 发展瓶颈环节，需重点把握 AI 缺电相 关投资机遇。燃气轮机作为海外数据中心主用电源与备用电源将深度受 益 AI 数据中心供电需求，GEV 超预期上修燃机订单与扩产也表明行业是 超长景气大周期。建议重点关注 AI 数据中心能源供应核心卡位 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 2025年12月23日 制造成长周报（第 39 期） 优于大市 何小鹏称人形机器人是巨头竞争，持续关注 AI 基建燃机及液 冷投资机会 重点事件点评&重点关注：人形机器人、AI 基建 事件 1-何小鹏：人形机器人将是巨头的竞争：2025 年 12 月 17 日，小鹏汽 车 CEO 何小鹏在微博发文称，人形机器人将来会是巨头的竞争，而不同的专 用机器人则会有大量不同领域的选手，且会有非常多的成功机会。 事件 2-万泽航空荣获广瀚燃机"金牌供应商"称号：2025 年 12 月 19 日， 万泽航空在广瀚燃机年度供应商评价中荣获"金牌供应商"称号。 人形机器人点评：人形机器人通用化难度大，我们认为未来一段时间机器人 可能会以专用机器人为主，各细分领域均有望出现龙头；同时各产业链也将 出现各自的领先企业。未来在大模型等技术逐步成熟后通用机器人有望在消 费领域和部分工业领域取代专用机器人。我们持续看好人形机器人的长期投 资机会，建议从价值量和卡位上把握空间&确定性，从股票弹性上寻找增量 环节。1）确定性：特斯拉产业链核心供应商或者实力强、卡位好的公司， 重点关注【飞荣达】【龙溪 ...

更残酷的战场在散户端。面向个人投资者的商业发展公司（BDC）今年遭遇"股债双杀"：FS KKR Capital股价跌33%，贝莱德BDC违约率升至7%，VanEck BDC ETF年内落后标普500逾20个百分点。 曾经承诺"月月分红"的BDC，如今14%收入来自"实物支付"（PIK），意味着借款人已无力支付现金利 息；最大持仓3.5亿美元清洁公司贷款沦为坏账，把"稳健"叙事撕出一道口子。 流动性陷阱随之浮现。Blue Owl试图把私有BDC与上市BDC合并以缓解赎回压力，却因股价较净资产值 折价14%被股东否决，交易流产。 公开市场价格与私募账面估值严重倒挂，散户想跑却找不到买家，只能眼睁睁看着本金蒸发。摩根大通 CEO戴蒙年初那句"看见一只蟑螂"的警告，如今看来只是黑暗厨房的一角：2万亿美元私募信贷盛宴 里，散户最后上桌，却最先买单。 据ETO Markets 出入金最新消息，曾被华尔街包装成"高股息避风港"的美国私募信贷市场，如今正被高 利率、违约潮和流动性黑洞三重力量撕裂。 最先敲响警钟的是管理1800亿美元资产的Blue Owl Capital——它突然退出甲骨文100亿美元AI数据中心 融资谈判， ...

今天美日环境以及东南亚自身体质与当年大不相同 美国数据转弱、日本央行加息，是上周风险资产市场的两条主线。由于美国数据残缺不齐，加上临近圣 诞假期，美债市场反应不大。美股横盘、欧股升、亚股跌。日本加息，日本国债下挫，十年期收益率更 冲至2.04%的历史性高点。美元指数回升，金价升，银价大涨，石油价格下跌，大宗商品走强。 被延迟的美国通胀数据出炉了，11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，为2021年以来最小的物价上涨，低于彭博 社调查的所有经济学家的预测，同月CPI报2.7%。对此数据不宜过度解读，有经济学家称之为"瑞士芝 士"，意指充满了空洞。由于政府停摆，许多统计工作无法按程序完成，大量细分数据被留空，包括食 品、能源等，严重影响了数据质量与可比性。 数据质量上最受质疑的是，占CPI数据约三分之一比重的房租，由于细分数据未能妥善搜集，整体数据 靠人为处理。租金主项环比上涨0.06%，业主等价租金（OER）上涨0.14%，意味着租金在9月之后几乎 没有上涨，与观察到的情景不符。接下来需要逐步修正。笔者相信美国通胀在放缓，但是最新数据受到 过多扰动，无法为决策者及市场提供可靠的统计支持。 非农就业数据也以双月合并的形 ...

点击上图▲立即收听 " 到 2030 年，中国 AI 数据中心直接驱动的铜需求将增长至近 100 万吨，占届时中国铜总需求的 5%—6% 。 " 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 2025中国家电科技年会上，空调"铝代铜"的声音，划破了中国产业经济半边天空。 19家企业签署《空调铝强化应用研究工作组自律公约》，以推进"铝代铜"，其中头部空调品牌包括美的、海尔、海信、TCL、奥克斯、小米、 美博七家，并呼吁"禁止恶意攻击行为，科学宣传铝热换器空调的特点"。 消息一出，社交媒体上出现了一些争议。 铜是空调最核心原材料，一台空调约20%的重量来源于铜。凭借导热性、耐腐蚀性方面的优势，铜材常被做成空调核心部件冷凝器和蒸发器的铜 管。倘若换成铝，中消协数据显示，铝管空调寿命一般只有8—10年。与此同时，铝铜异材焊接也是一个世界难题，热胀系数差异会导致泄漏风 险，并缩短空调寿命。 格力董事长董明珠也提到这个行业痛点： 用铝管会便宜很多，所以我们也纠结，为了迎合市场，我们便宜，可能买的人会更多，但是如果用铝管替代，你要保证十年不坏，如 果你两三年坏了，消费者就是受害者……研究几年下来，我们到现在还没有100%的把握说 ...

盘前市场动向 1.12月18日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.12%，标普500指数期货涨0.40%，纳指期货涨 0.76%。 | = US 30 | 47,942.30 | 47,962.60 | 47,789.50 | +56.10 | +0.12% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6,748.20 | 6,752.60 | 6.716.10 | +26.70 | +0.40% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 24,835.50 | 24,857.50 | 24,661.40 | +187.90 | +0.76% | 2.截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.26%，英国富时100指数涨0.22%，法国CAC40指数涨0.21%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.38%。 | 德国DAX30 | 24,018.12 | 24,041.19 | 23,914.00 | +62.41 | +0.26% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英国富时100 | 9,795 ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology (MU.US) has provided an extremely optimistic earnings outlook for the current quarter, significantly exceeding Wall Street analysts' expectations, and has unexpectedly increased its capital expenditure for fiscal year 2026, indicating a strong demand for storage chips driven by the unprecedented global AI boom [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Micron's revenue is expected to be between $18.3 billion and $19.1 billion, compared to Wall Street's average expectation of $14.4 billion [3][4]. - The company reported a gross margin forecast of 67.0% under GAAP, significantly higher than the analysts' average expectation of 55.7% [4][11]. - Micron's capital expenditure forecast for fiscal year 2026 has been raised from $18 billion to $20 billion, reflecting the ongoing surge in storage chip demand [4][11]. Market Dynamics - The "super cycle" in the storage chip market is validated by strong performance from major competitors like SK Hynix and Samsung, indicating a significant increase in both volume and pricing for storage products, including HBM systems [1][2]. - The demand for high-performance DRAM and NAND products is surging due to the rapid expansion of AI data centers, leading Micron to focus its production capacity on these segments [2][9]. Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, Micron's stock surged over 8% in after-hours trading, with a year-to-date increase of over 170% [5][8]. - Wall Street analysts have raised their 12-month price target for Micron, with the average target approaching $300 [5][8]. Industry Outlook - TrendForce has revised its revenue forecasts for the DRAM industry, expecting a year-over-year growth of over 100% in 2026, positioning Micron as one of the biggest beneficiaries [2][3]. - The ongoing AI infrastructure investment wave is projected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, driven by the demand for AI computing hardware and storage solutions [19].

美国最大规模计算机存储芯片制造商美光科技(MU.US)就当前季度给出了极度乐观的业绩展望数据，远超华尔街分析师们近日不断上调的一致预期，并且意 外提高2026财年资本支出，加上美光CEO暗示这一轮"存储芯片超级周期"有望延续至2027年，进一步表明全球布局AI的史无前例热潮之下存储芯片需求激增 以及供应端长期短缺正使得该公司能够对其DRAM/NAND系列存储芯片产品收取更高昂价格。 美光最新公布的远超华尔街分析师普遍预期的业绩数据与展望前景，以及全球最大规模的两大存储芯片制造商——来自韩国的SK海力士与三星此前公布的 强劲业绩与未来展望，所凸显出的包括HBM存储系统在内的存储产品量价狂增之势，可谓全方位验证"存储超级周期"逻辑。在截至11月27日的2026财年第 一季度中，该存储芯片巨头业绩同样远超分析师们不断上修的预期，共同推动美光股价在美股盘后一度暴涨超8%，在AI泡沫论调席卷全球之际可谓顽强托 起"AI牛市叙事"以及投资者们"AI信仰"。 在所谓"存储芯片超级周期"这一无比强劲的牛市叙事催化之下，美光科技股价走势自今年下半年以来迈入狂飙模式，推动该股今年以来疯涨超170%。美光 为了能够将存储产能专注于 ...

Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Signs of increased consumer sentiment are observed, with Shanghai Disneyland's congestion index rising by 9.1% week-on-week and 75.7% year-on-year, indicating improved tourism demand due to the implementation of autumn holidays in various regions [7][9] - Movie box office revenue for the week of December 8-14 reached 717 million yuan, reflecting a 48.5% week-on-week decline but an 87.7% year-on-year increase, suggesting a strong year-on-year performance despite a seasonal drop [7] - The real estate market continues to experience low sales, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities down by 33.9% year-on-year, and second-hand housing transactions in key cities also declining by 34.6% [10][11] Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry remains in a high-growth phase, driven by AI infrastructure investments, with DRAM memory prices for DDR4 and DDR5 averaging $50.1 and $26.2 respectively, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.8% for DDR4 [21][23] - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices reporting a week-on-week decline of 0.6% and 1.8% respectively, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [26][27] - Manufacturing activity is showing signs of improvement, with the operating rate for semi-steel and full-steel tires increasing by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively, although recruitment intentions among companies are slightly declining [37] Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have seen a significant decline, with the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port dropping by 5.1% week-on-week, attributed to stable supply and lack of unexpected demand [43][44] - Industrial metal prices are fluctuating at high levels, with copper and aluminum prices on the SHFE at 94,100 and 22,200 yuan per ton respectively, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.4% for copper [45][46] Group 4: Logistics and Mobility - Passenger transport demand has decreased seasonally, with the subway passenger volume in major cities down by 1.4% week-on-week, while the Baidu migration index fell by 4.2% [52][55] - Freight logistics demand is also declining, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 2.0% and 0.3% respectively, although express delivery volumes have shown slight recovery [56][59]

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles revolves around the "storage supercycle" driven by the increasing demand for AI infrastructure, significantly benefiting companies like Micron Technology, which has seen its stock price rise approximately 180% this year [1][2][4]. - Major investment firms, including Wells Fargo, highlight that the demand for high-performance storage products, particularly HBM and server-level DDR5, is surging due to the rapid expansion of AI data centers [1][2][8]. - The semiconductor market is projected to grow significantly, with WSTS forecasting a 22.5% increase in 2025, reaching a total value of $772.2 billion, and further expanding to $975.5 billion in 2026, indicating a robust recovery in chip demand [2]. Group 2 - Micron is identified as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the anticipated over 100% growth in the DRAM market by 2026, particularly in the HBM and high-performance DDR5 segments [4][5]. - TrendForce has revised its revenue forecasts for the DRAM industry, predicting revenues of approximately $165.7 billion in 2025 (up 73% year-on-year) and $333.5 billion in 2026 (up 101% year-on-year), indicating a strong recovery trajectory [5]. - The ongoing AI infrastructure investment wave is expected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, driven by unprecedented demand for AI computing power [3]. Group 3 - The competition between Google and OpenAI is highlighted as a significant investment theme, with both companies relying heavily on high-performance storage solutions, which are essential for their AI infrastructure [6][7]. - The demand for enterprise-level high-performance storage, including HBM systems and server-level DDR5, is critical for supporting the massive AI training and inference workloads, with DRAM capacities in AI servers being 8-10 times higher than traditional CPU servers [8]. - The transition to DDR5 is driven by its 50% bandwidth improvement over DDR4, making it more suitable for large-scale AI workloads [8].