分析师警告：此刻锁定长期合同=自毁退路？2025年关税风险会否压垮航运市场？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term risks of styrene have been fully released, and it is not advisable to short in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - For styrene futures contracts, prices of EB2505, EB2506, and EB2507 all decreased compared to the previous day, with changes of - 46, - 38, and - 36 respectively. The basis of EB decreased by 14, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. The spot price of styrene in East China dropped by 60. The number of styrene warehouse receipts decreased by 2363, the trading volume decreased by 140089, and the open interest decreased by 330 [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of styrene is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [1] Spot News - The short - term risks of styrene have been fully released, and short - selling is not recommended in the short term [2] Market Analysis - The weak situation of pure benzene remains unresolved, with short - term downward drivers. Although the overseas gasoline blending has restarted, the overall valuation has been re - structured due to the rapid decline in oil prices, and the downward pressure on the absolute price in the overseas market has not been fully released. However, due to the marginal improvement in the supply - demand of pure benzene, bzn has rebounded rapidly and is expected to fluctuate around 200 in the short term. The domestic downstream demand is lackluster, and the trade war has added pressure to the export in the second quarter. In 2025, the downstream resilience of pure benzene is much weaker than in 2024. The downstream demand order is currently phenol > adipic acid > aniline > caprolactam. The growth of caprolactam, which was the strongest last year, has slowed down this year, with continuous price drops, inventory accumulation, and load reduction. The MDI market overseas still faces trade war pressure, with a rapid increase in inventory and obvious negative feedback from aniline. However, the recent operating rates and profits of adipic acid and phenol are relatively stronger [3] - The negative feedback of styrene has just begun. EPS has started to reduce production and prices to relieve inventory pressure. PS and ABS factories have not yet reduced production, and are expected to do so after the poor home appliance demand is transmitted to actual orders for hard plastics. In the short term, PS and ABS factories can still maintain high loads driven by profits. Although there is an expectation of significant inventory reduction for styrene in April, downstream raw material inventory is already quite sufficient. There is a possibility that styrene may follow the decline of pure benzene. Opportunities for compressing profits in the far - month contracts should be noted [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The outer - disk crude oil has dropped sharply, and the fuel oil futures market may experience a significant pullback. The low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open lower, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the outer - disk market will continue to widen [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Price and Trading Volume - The closing prices of FU2505, FU2506, LU2505, and LU2506 decreased by - 0.03%, - 0.54%, - 1.61%, and - 0.89% respectively. The night - session prices of FU2505, FU2506, and LU2506 decreased by - 0.12%, - 0.33%, and - 0.11% respectively, while LU2505 increased by 0.88% [1] - The trading volumes of FU2505, FU2506, and LU2506 increased by 30,772, 2,858, and 12,795 respectively, and the trading volume of LU2505 decreased by 10,645 [1] - The positions of FU2505, FU2506, and LU2505 decreased by 17,666, 728, and 2,075 respectively, and the position of LU2506 increased by 2,309 [1] 3.1.2 Spot Price - The spot prices of high - sulfur (3.5%S) and low - sulfur (0.5%S) fuel oils in various regions such as Singapore, Fujeirah, and Zhoushan all decreased. For example, the Singapore MOPS high - sulfur price decreased from 445.6 to 415.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of - 6.69%, and the low - sulfur price decreased from 513.8 to 486.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of - 5.24% [1] 3.1.3 Spread - The spread between different contracts and varieties shows changes. For example, the spread of LU05 - 06 was - 33 yuan/ton, and the spread difference compared with the settlement was 37 yuan/ton. The spread of LU05 - FU05 was 440 yuan/ton, and the spread difference compared with the settlement was 37 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is - 2, indicating a very bearish outlook [1]

铝和铜市场开始意识到特朗普关税。在期货交易中，美国的价格相对于其他国家急剧上涨。美国市 场的铝3月期货2月10日比前一周周末上涨了2%，之后仍在持续上涨。铜的美英市场差价也迅速扩 大…… 铝和铜市场开始意识到特朗普关税。 在预测未来某个时间的价格的期货交易中，美国的价格相对于 其他国家急剧上涨。 虽然关税是否会实际征收还无法预料，但有色金属相关人士已开始在考虑关税 启动的情况下进行交易。 "将对象品类明确锁定为钢铁和铝的方案出乎意料"，一家日本大型商社的铝行业负责人如此表示。 与特朗普就任前提出的普遍关税不同，钢铁和铝成为焦点，相关人士的紧张感正在加剧。 美国政府将从3月12日起对美国进口的钢铁和铝制品加征25%的关税。2月10日总统令签署后，首先 作出反应的是期货市场比钢铁更为发达的铝。 在评估铝价格方面属于国际指标的伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铝锭价格之上支付的"溢价"备受关 注。这反映了运费和各地区的供需情况。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）山田周吾 美国总统特朗普2月25日签署了对铜也加征关税的总统令，并指示美国商务部进行实际调查。受此 影响，美国纽约商品交易所（COMEX）的铜期货价格急剧上涨，交 ...