《美联储这次"平平无奇"的降息，其实暗藏玄机》 ——连续三次降息背后，美联储为何突然"步子乱了"？分歧、政治与流动性正在重塑全球预期 real g min TOMES E 7 3 4 5 n 2 2 3 4 4 4 the first 0 1 the state t 2 30 1 the st STATE THE THE all no a s t and ans in Ship STATION the state 再看点阵图，已经不是"有分歧"，而是未来路径严重撕裂：有人把利率看到2%，也有人准备随时加息。市场一边上涨，一边心里发虚——这不是指路牌， 更像一道谜题。 真正点燃情绪的，是资产负债表操作。美联储嘴上说"不是QE"，手上却开始买短债。历史早就告诉市场：流动性一旦放出，情绪比逻辑跑得快，于是股债 齐涨、美元回落、黄金走强。 往前看，政治变量正在逼近。主席换届在即，潜在接班人立场更鸽，白宫声音更直接，美联储独立性成了新的风险点。 放在全球坐标系里，美国在摇摆，中国却更显定力。内生增长、产业升级与政策韧性，正在为中国经济提供更稳的锚。 一句话总结：这次降息不是答案，而是序章。真正的戏，还在后面。 "重点不 ...

最大的挑战是美联储的独立性问题。 美联储丧失独立性就难以控制通胀，美元币值无法保证，国债市场难以维系，连带全球经济金融都受影 响。由于美联储独立性的重要性，美国的制度体系和市场力量会对此有所制约。今年5月美国最高法院 裁决已经体现了对美联储的保护，公众普遍预计下月也将会作出支持库克的裁决。 这样的司法制约是刚性的但却是滞后的，日常发挥基础作用的还是市场力量。今春白宫试图解雇鲍威尔 就因市场剧烈动荡而作罢。目前白宫挑选鲍威尔继任者的一个明确要求就是降息，现任美国国家经济委 员会主任哈塞特已成为热门人选，被市场称为"影子主席"。 但面临这次降息，美国国债中长期收益率在美联储会议前却逆势上涨，部分因素就在于市场担心明年美 联储主席更替后能否继续控通胀（会后下跌表明市场信心部分恢复）。即便特朗普最终提名哈塞特作为 美联储新任主席，但首先要由参议院通过（9月特朗普提名临时任职的米兰以1票之差勉强通过），其次 还要面对美联储其他官员的不同观点，可能比现在分歧更为严重，完全按白宫意图降息也难以实现。综 合各方因素，美联储独立性虽受挑战，但大概率仍将基本保持。 会议降息决定符合市场预期，经济预测特别是美联储主席鲍威尔新闻发布 ...

Core Viewpoint - Record leasing rates and tariff concerns have led to unprecedented trading volumes, prompting investors to increase their allocation in precious metals for portfolio diversification, while adjusting the ratio of silver to gold [1] Group 1: Silver vs. Gold Performance - Over the past 12 months, silver prices surged by 92%, while gold saw a rise of approximately 56% [2] - Silver reached a 13-year high of over $35 per ounce in early June and has now approached a historical peak of nearly $63 [2] - The strong performance of silver has reignited discussions about whether it can become a reliable alternative to gold [6][7] Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Dynamics - Investment demand for silver has significantly increased, with exchange-traded product (ETP) holdings rising by about 18% as of November 6 [2][3] - The net supply-demand balance for silver is at its tightest level on record, with ETF demand increasingly impacting this imbalance [3] - The U.S. government's designation of silver as a critical mineral has added uncertainty, as details on subsequent actions are still awaited [4] Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Precious Metals - Lower interest rates, particularly following a recent 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, are expected to benefit precious metal prices [5][6] - The correlation between the Federal Reserve's easing policies and the demand for both gold and silver suggests that silver may also gain from these conditions [5][6] - The industrial demand for silver, driven by sectors such as solar energy and electric vehicles, is contributing to its strong market performance [7] Group 4: Long-term Perspectives on Silver - Silver has historically been viewed as a substitute for gold, but its recent performance has outpaced that of gold [7] - The structural supply gap in the silver market, which has persisted for five years, shows little sign of resolution, further enhancing its appeal to investors [7] - Despite silver's rising profile, reserve asset managers have not yet recognized it as a viable long-term holding, indicating a potential barrier to its acceptance as a true alternative to gold [7]

Core Viewpoint - Record leasing rates and tariff concerns have led to unprecedented trading volumes, prompting investors to increase their allocation in precious metals for portfolio diversification, while adjusting the ratio between silver and gold [1] Group 1: Silver's Performance - Over the past 12 months, silver prices have surged by 92%, compared to a 56% increase in gold prices [2] - Silver reached a 13-year high of over $35 per ounce in early June and has now approached a historical peak of nearly $63 [2] - The CEO of the Silver Institute noted that 2025 is expected to be a dramatic year for the silver market, with record prices and unprecedented liquidity tightness [2] Group 2: Investment Demand - Investment demand for silver has significantly increased, with ETP holdings rising by approximately 18% as of November 6 [2][3] - The net supply-demand balance for silver is currently at its tightest level on record, with ETF demand increasingly impacting this imbalance [3] - The decision to classify silver as a critical mineral by the U.S. government has added uncertainty, as details on subsequent actions are still awaited [4] Group 3: Economic Factors - Lower interest rates, following a recent 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, have been beneficial for precious metal prices, including silver [5][6] - The correlation between the Federal Reserve's easing policies and the demand for silver is significant, with industrial demand also playing a crucial role [7] Group 4: Silver as an Alternative to Gold - The rapid rise of silver relative to gold has reignited discussions about whether silver is becoming a reliable substitute for gold [7] - Silver's strong performance is attributed to rising industrial demand and a structural supply gap that has persisted for five years [7][8] - While silver is increasingly viewed as an alternative to gold, reserve asset managers historically have not considered silver worthy of long-term holdings [8]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5-3.75% on December 11, 2025, aligning with market expectations[1] - The dot plot indicates only one rate cut of 25 basis points is expected in 2026, with a high degree of dispersion remaining[2] - The Fed will begin purchasing Treasury bills at a rate of $40 billion per month starting December 12, 2025, to ensure ample reserves in the financial system[2] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed raised its growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.7%, 2.3%, and 2.0%, respectively, an increase of 0.1, 0.5, and 0.1 percentage points from the September meeting[3] - Inflation forecasts were lowered, with PCE expected at 2.9% and 2.4% for 2025 and 2026, down by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively[3] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, with a slight decrease to 4.2% in 2027[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the 2-year Treasury yield fell approximately 3 basis points to 3.56%, while the S&P and Nasdaq indices rose by about 0.4%[5] - Gold prices increased by 0.5% to over $4200 per ounce, reflecting market optimism regarding liquidity and reduced hawkish concerns[5] - The dollar index weakened by about 0.3% to around 98.7, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards liquidity easing[5] Group 4: Future Considerations - Powell indicated that the Fed's actions are primarily preventive against potential labor market weaknesses, with no immediate decisions made for the January meeting[4] - The Fed's independence may be challenged in 2026, potentially leading to lower policy rates and higher inflation risks, which could favor equities and precious metals while negatively impacting long-term Treasury rates[6]

Group 1: Silver Market Insights - Silver prices have experienced a significant rebound, with a year-to-date increase of over 100% as of December 9, driven by strong investment demand and supply shortages [1] - The global silver supply is expected to remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while demand is projected to decline to 1.12 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 118 million ounces for the fifth consecutive year [4][5] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, is expected to grow, with silver usage in the photovoltaic industry projected to reach 7,560 tons by 2025, significantly increasing its share of total silver demand [4] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have risen approximately 60% year-to-date, supported by investment demand and central bank purchases, with global central banks buying 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter [2] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, held about 1,049.11 tons of gold as of December 8, reflecting a 20.5% year-on-year increase despite a slight decline from October [2] - The potential for continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve could sustain upward momentum in gold prices, although there are concerns about a possible correction following interest rate cuts [1][8] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, which could exacerbate domestic inflation and undermine confidence in the dollar, potentially leading to increased gold purchases by global central banks [3] - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of slowing, with the hiring rate dropping to approximately 21.5%, indicating a shift in employee retention behavior [7] - Investors are currently favoring safer assets, moving funds from riskier equities and precious metals into money market funds in response to market uncertainties [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5-3.75% on December 11, 2025, marking a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year[3]. - The dot plot indicates that the median expectation for 2026 is only one rate cut, reflecting significant internal disagreement among officials regarding economic conditions[16]. - The Fed's economic forecast for 2025-2028 shows an upward revision of GDP growth to 1.7% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, while maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.5% and 4.4% respectively[15]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Employment - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.4% in September 2025, the highest since October 2021, with projections suggesting it may reach around 4.45% by late 2025[30]. - Core PCE inflation is expected to be 3.0% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, reflecting a slight downward revision from previous forecasts[15]. - The Fed's strategy may involve further rate cuts in 2026, with expectations of 2-3 cuts, primarily in the first half of the year, as the labor market remains weak and inflation stabilizes[29]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the Fed's announcement, market reactions included a rise in stock prices and a decline in the dollar index, indicating a more dovish market sentiment[23]. - The Fed's independence may face challenges due to political pressures, which could influence future monetary policy decisions[24]. - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed chair could lead to a more dovish policy stance, although the overall committee may lean more hawkish due to changes in voting members[27].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, has not shown a more hawkish stance contrary to market expectations, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy moving forward [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Powell announced the repurchase of short-term bonds and maintained a dovish tone regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting decisions will be made based on economic data at each meeting [1] - The dot plot has shown a more dovish distribution compared to September, indicating a shift in the Fed's outlook [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcements, U.S. stocks and precious metals experienced significant gains, while the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields weakened temporarily [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The threshold for interest rate cuts has notably increased at current rate levels, with the Fed expected to enter a period of observation in the first half of next year, leading to a slower pace of policy changes [1] - Political discussions surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve are anticipated to intensify [1]

今日凌晨12月美联储如期降息了25个基点，但消息一落地，美股、黄金和美债迅速反弹，美元指数 回落，原因是 市场此前普遍预期的"鹰派口径"并没有出现 。 这太意外了。 在利率决议之前，市场已经把鹰派降息作为共识：降息25个基点几乎没有悬念，但美联储大概率会 强调未来仍需谨慎，让市场不要提前押注宽松。 资本市场也提前交易了这个预期。近期美元指数企稳偏强、黄金在高位震荡、美股上涨也相对克制， 美债持续下跌。 所以 在本轮利率决议会议上，市场关心的重点不是降息，而是美联储主席鲍威尔的表态是否比预期 更紧。 但实际上 鲍威尔不刚了，结果 意外偏鸽 。鲍威尔下调通胀前景，称通胀将在明年下半年回落；更重 要的是，美联储宣布从本月开始扩大资产负债表，买入400亿美元短期国债，这一操作本质上意味着 实际金融条件进一步放松。 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | 视觉中国 整体来看， 这次利率会议是略超市场预期的，很多资产也收复了之前的跌幅 。但在尾盘，市场的关 注点似乎从美联储的政策基调转向了政治风险。特朗普在会后喊话降息幅度本可以加倍，让市场解读 为白宫又开始干预美联储了，因此压制了美股和黄金在尾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market and survey respondents expect Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, to be nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman, but most economists prefer other candidates and are concerned about the potential loss of Fed independence and a more dovish policy stance [1][1]. Group 1 - Market expectations indicate a nomination for Kevin Hassett as Federal Reserve Chairman [1]. - Majority of economists express preference for alternative candidates [1]. - Concerns arise regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and a shift towards a more dovish policy stance [1].