Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between the Trump administration and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, particularly focusing on the Department of Justice's investigation into Powell, which has raised concerns about political interference in monetary policy [1][6]. Group 1: Investigation and Reactions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed his outrage and concern over the DOJ's investigation into Powell, warning that political interference could lead to market panic regarding inflation and currency collapse [1][6]. - Powell publicly countered the investigation, stating that it was a pretext for the Trump administration to exert political pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1][6]. - Former Federal Reserve chairs and Treasury secretaries condemned the DOJ's actions, emphasizing that such investigations threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve and could have severe negative implications for inflation and the economy [6][4]. Group 2: Market Response - The market reacted with volatility; gold prices surged to historic highs due to fears of currency collapse, while major stock indices initially dipped before recovering to reach new highs by the end of the trading day [3][6]. - The investigation's initiation by U.S. Attorney for D.C. was criticized for being conducted without notifying the Treasury Department, suggesting a lack of coordination within the administration [3][4]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - The investigation appears to be part of a broader power struggle, with indications that it may have been influenced by Trump loyalists within the DOJ [4][6]. - Republican divisions are emerging, as key Senate Banking Committee members have stated they will oppose any Federal Reserve nominations until Powell's legal issues are resolved, complicating Trump's plans for control over the Fed [6][4]. - Powell's term as a Fed governor extends until 2028, which may hinder Trump's ability to easily replace him, as the decision-making process at the Fed involves a committee rather than a single individual [6][4]. Group 4: Powell's Stance - Powell remains resolute in his commitment to maintaining the integrity of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the importance of independence from political pressures [8][6]. - The ongoing conflict has revealed the complexities of the relationship between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, with Powell's determination to resist pressure becoming increasingly evident [8][6].

1、突发！美国联邦检察官展开对鲍威尔的刑事调查！先理清事件的真相！ 在2026年1月11日的晚上， 鲍威尔主席亲自发布了一段视频声明，证实了自己已经收到了来自美国司法部的大陪审团传票。调查的 缘由，竟然是与他2025年6月的参议院证词相关，指控内容涉及美联储办公楼翻新项目。然而，鲍威尔 直言不讳地揭示，这背后并非如外界所说的翻新问题，而是美联储未按照总统要求大幅降息的原因。我 们先来了解一下表面上的调查内容——这一办公楼翻新项目，原定于2019年预算为19亿美元，然而，由 于建材价格的上涨，成本最终飙升至25亿美元，超出了预算32%。特朗普曾多次批评鲍威尔在此事上的 无能，称其为豪华装修。而去年6月，鲍威尔在国会作证时承认了这一超支，却坚决否认有任何豪华装 修的成分，坚称是为了提升安全性和现代化。这次调查，显然是要核实他当时的证词是否存在虚假成 分。 2、主导调查的检察官与特朗普有深厚渊源！事情背后，暗流涌动！ 这次调查的主导者是哥伦比亚特区 联邦检察官办公室，而其负责人珍妮娜·皮罗与特朗普有着长期的政治联盟，她还是特朗普亲自任命的 检察官。如果没有高层的默许，且考虑到皮罗与总统的亲密关系，难以想象她会毫无顾 ...

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. CPI for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching expectations and the previous month's value[2] - Core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%[2] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations, while core CPI rose by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] Key Influences on Inflation - Food and energy prices saw a seasonal uptick due to winter demand and holiday effects, with household food prices rising by 0.7% month-on-month[2] - Core inflation was impacted by declining prices for new and used cars, with used car prices dropping to 1.6% year-on-year from 3.6%[2] - Core services inflation remained stable at 3.0% year-on-year, with entertainment prices increasing significantly due to holiday travel[2] Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock markets rose, while short-term Treasury yields fell, and the dollar index experienced volatility[2] - The market is increasingly betting on a dual easing policy in 2026, influenced by both stable inflation and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve[2] - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January 2026 remains low, with a cautious outlook expected[2] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include tariffs leading to higher-than-expected inflation and weak retail data in spring, which could negatively impact the U.S. economy[2]

"但需要注意的是，往后看，进入2026年后，在库存消耗完毕的背景下，此前选择自行消化成本、尚未提价的企业仍将 大概率在新一轮进口带来的成本压力下补涨，从而对通胀形成新的压力。"白雪说。 智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美国劳工统计局周二发布的数据显示，12月，消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，环比上涨0.3%，均和前值持平。 剔除能源和食品价格的核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，和上个月持平，环比上涨0.2%，和9月持平（10、11月数据因联邦政府 关门缺失）。 分析师认为，12月CPI数据基本符合市场预期，证实美国通胀在进一步降温，但不足以推动美联储在短期内再次降息。 12月CPI公布后，市场对美联储降息预期的变化不大。北京时间周三13:00左右，芝加哥商品交易所FedWatch数据显示， 1月不降息概率高达97.2%，较一日前增加1.6个百分点。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园对智通财经表示，美国12月CPI符合预期，整体表现比较平淡，仅食品分项同比略有抬升。 核心CPI略低于预期，主要是受二手车和通信服务的拖累。 东方金诚研究发展部副总监白雪对智通财经表示，美国12月CPI总体表现温和，打消了11月数据因政府停摆效 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new chairperson of the Federal Reserve is a focal point in global financial markets, with the announcement expected in January 2026. The three finalists are Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, and Kevin Warsh, all of whom support interest rate cuts but differ in their approaches and views on the reform of the Federal Reserve's functions [1][4][5]. Candidate Profiles - Christopher Waller, aged 67, has a background in macroeconomics and has served as a director at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank since 2009. He has been a Federal Reserve Board member since December 2020 and holds multiple committee positions within the Fed [2]. - Kevin Hassett, 64, has held various economic advisory roles, including serving as the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Trump. He advocates for immediate and significant liquidity release due to the productivity revolution driven by artificial intelligence [1][4]. - Kevin Warsh, the youngest at 56, has experience in both the private sector and as a former Federal Reserve governor. He emphasizes the need to reduce the balance sheet before considering interest rate cuts and criticizes past aggressive quantitative easing policies [4][5]. Divergent Views on Monetary Policy - Hassett is the most aggressive in advocating for immediate and substantial liquidity release, believing that technological advancements will mitigate inflation [4]. - Warsh supports a more cautious approach, suggesting a balance sheet reduction before rate cuts, and criticizes the Fed's deviation from its core responsibilities [4]. - Waller suggests that current interest rates are only 50 to 100 basis points away from neutral levels and advocates for a data-driven approach to rate adjustments [4]. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Independence - The ongoing criminal investigation into Jerome Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially influencing the new chair's ability to implement aggressive rate cuts [1][7][8]. - Analysts note that regardless of who is appointed, the new chair will not have unilateral control over interest rates, as decisions are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which currently shows significant internal disagreement on the pace of rate cuts [7][9]. Market Predictions - As of the latest updates, Warsh is leading in the predictions for the new chair position, with probabilities of 40% to 42% compared to Hassett's 36% to 38% and Waller's 10% [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that Warsh's experience and views align well with both the need for independence and the current economic context, making him a strong candidate [6][7]. FOMC Composition and Future Implications - The FOMC's voting members include 12 individuals, with a small proportion currently leaning dovish. The upcoming changes in the committee's composition will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions [10][12]. - The current structure allows for potential changes in the board, with Trump having the opportunity to nominate new members, which could further influence the Fed's direction [13][14].

Core Insights - The spot silver price has reached a new historical high, surpassing $90 per ounce, indicating strong market demand and bullish sentiment [1] - The market capitalization of silver has exceeded $5 trillion, surpassing that of major companies like NVIDIA, which is valued at $4.52 trillion [4][5] Price Movements - Spot silver prices in London reached a peak of $90.004, with a daily increase of 3.41% [2] - COMEX silver also saw significant gains, with prices rising over 4% during trading [3] - The Shanghai silver futures contracts experienced a rise of over 7%, with year-to-date gains exceeding 30% [3][4] Market Dynamics - The increase in precious metal prices is attributed to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties, as well as inflation data supporting expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7] - Analysts from Citigroup have raised their price forecasts for gold and silver to $5,000 and $100 per ounce, respectively, over the next three months [7] Supply and Demand Factors - There is a noted short-term tightness in the silver spot market, driven by factors such as U.S. trade policies designating silver as a critical mineral and increased orders from India [7] - The macroeconomic outlook suggests that while the most acute phase of supply tightness may have passed, ongoing developments in U.S. trade policy will be crucial for future market conditions [7]

Group 1: Inflation Overview - In December 2025, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and market expectations[5] - Core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, consistent with the prior value but slightly below market expectations[5] - The overall inflation remains moderate, with specific pressures noted in food and housing sectors[9] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Food inflation has increased to 0.7% month-on-month, contributing 0.10 percentage points to the overall CPI[9] - Energy CPI growth has decreased, contributing only 0.02 percentage points to the overall CPI due to falling energy prices[9] - Core goods inflation is limited, with the automotive sector showing a significant decline, particularly in used car prices which fell by 1.1% month-on-month[9] Group 3: Federal Reserve Implications - The narrative around the potential loss of Federal Reserve independence has intensified, influenced by political pressures[2] - The market is pricing in a more dovish stance from the new Fed chair due to the continued moderate inflation, which may lead to a pause in interest rate cuts[9] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has slightly decreased, indicating market adjustments to the inflation data and Fed independence concerns[9]

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - The bond market has mostly turned positive, with the 30-year government bond yield falling below 2.3% as of yesterday [1] - Government bond futures saw most contracts rise, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.17% and the 10-year main contract up by 0.04% [1] - Credit bonds are showing continued performance divergence, with high-grade varieties experiencing a general decline while low-grade varieties have turned positive [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase agreement exceeding 350 billion, offsetting the impact of a 600 billion buyout reverse repurchase agreement maturing yesterday, resulting in a cumulative net withdrawal of over 220 billion this week [5] - During the trading session, key funding prices continued to rise, with overnight funding prices increasing by over 5 basis points and 7-day funding prices surpassing 1.5% [5] Group 3: Market Commentary and Outlook - Recent investigations into the Federal Reserve Chairman have raised concerns about the potential impact on the Fed's independence, increasing uncertainty around future monetary policy [6] - The collective rise in U.S. Treasury yields reflects investors' risk-averse response to policy uncertainty, necessitating ongoing monitoring of the investigation's progress and market re-pricing of U.S. Treasury credit spreads [7] - It is suggested to maintain a balanced allocation between equities and bonds, with a focus on global diversification to better manage market volatility [7] - For those with lower risk tolerance seeking better investment experiences than pure bonds, two types of moderate to low volatility fixed-income strategies are recommended: one focusing on stable absolute returns and the other aiming for higher yields in volatile markets [7]

美国最高法院日程预告 上证报中国证券网讯（实习生 杨艳莹 记者 王宙洁）根据官方日程，美国最高法院将于1月21日就特朗普政府解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克的相关诉讼举行听证 会，这成为美联储维护政治独立性的关键节点。 美国银行经济学家Aditya Bhave表示："如果法院做出不利于库克的裁决，将显著增加鲍威尔因司法部调查而被罢免的可能性。我们一直认为，库克案对政策 轨迹的影响比下一任美联储主席的人选更重要。" 多位分析师认为，当前形势或引发美联储主席鲍威尔留任的持久战。德意志银行类比了1948年前主席Marriner Eccles被罢免后仍以行长身份留任至1951年的 先例。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）可能支持鲍威尔留任主席，即使特朗普另任命新主席管理美联储。库克听证会成为关键，如果特朗普胜诉，他可以以 此为由罢免鲍威尔；若库克胜诉，则可能引发美联储与白宫的长期对峙，影响政策走向。 目前市场密切关注美联储的动向，交易员们大力押注本月政策会议上不会有任何行动，他们预计下一次降息将在六月。嘉信理财宏观研究与战略负责人 Kevin Gordon指出，库克案裁决对总统塑造美联储架构的能力影响重大。尽管当前市场对鲍威尔相 ...

格隆汇1月14日｜现货白银价格在亚洲早盘时段创下历史新高，一度突破90美元/盎司。这是银价连续第 四个交易日录得上涨。此前，美国方面威胁要在伊朗采取军事行动，这令地缘政治紧张局势再次升温， 令对避险资产的需求依然强劲。与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔因在管理华盛顿总部改造资金方面存在不 当行为而受到刑事指控，这使得人们对美联储独立性的担忧进一步加剧，这一事件亦导致美元大幅贬 值，有市场专家警告称，对美联储独立地位的攻击可能会对美国主权评级造成影响，这同样使得避险资 产继续保持强劲态势。 来源：格隆汇APP ...