Core Viewpoint - The article discusses former President Trump's decision to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which is perceived as a strategy to exert pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - Trump announced the dismissal of Lisa Cook, citing alleged fraudulent behavior in her loan applications as the reason for her removal [1]. - The dismissal is seen as part of a broader strategy to gain control over the Federal Reserve, particularly the Federal Open Market Committee, by replacing Cook and potentially other members with his allies [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the dollar index experienced a slight decline, while gold prices initially rose but later retraced some gains, indicating market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [6]. - There is skepticism in the market regarding Trump's ability to fully control the Federal Reserve, despite the potential for significant impacts on the dollar if Cook is ultimately removed [6]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump believes that a weaker dollar and lower interest rates would benefit U.S. manufacturing, although former Treasury Secretary Yellen has expressed doubts about the feasibility of this outcome [8]. - The U.S. faces a significant debt burden, with projections indicating that government debt could reach 160% of GDP by 2050, raising concerns about the attractiveness of investing in the U.S. under such conditions [8].

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - International spot gold prices surged over 2% last week, closing above $3400 per ounce, marking the second consecutive week of gains [1] - In August, spot gold accumulated a rise of $157.77, achieving a 4.8% increase, the best monthly performance since April [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for August is anticipated to further influence gold prices following a weak report in July [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Despite some positive U.S. economic data, dovish sentiments within the Federal Reserve have increased, strengthening expectations for a rate cut in September [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was revised up to 3.3%, and initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [3] - The core PCE price index for July recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations, which has further solidified the anticipation of a rate cut [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence Concerns - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump has raised questions about the Fed's independence, contributing to bullish sentiment in the gold market [6] - Trump's potential influence over the Fed's board could lead to a majority of positions being filled by his appointees, further challenging the Fed's autonomy [6] - Cook's lawsuit against her dismissal has somewhat eased market volatility, but concerns about the Fed's independence persist [7] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Gold prices have been steadily rising, with increased bullish sentiment reflected in rising positions; CME gold open interest rose by 39,208 contracts to 478,014 [8] - Speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 6,364 contracts to 148,122 [8] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR GOLD TRUST, saw its holdings increase by 20.91 tons, reaching a total of 977.68 tons [8]

更有意思的是，特朗普把鲍威尔和理事会全拉进了被告席。这意思很明显：你们要么执行总统的决定， 要么和我一起上法庭。鲍威尔这些年夹在特朗普和拜登之间，已经够难了。这次要是听总统的，就是破 坏央行独立；不听，就是跟白宫对着干。这一招把所有人都绑在了一起。法庭成了最后的屏障。恰巧这 次主审法官是拜登任命的，之前还否了特朗普的移民政策。 外界普遍觉得，第一回合特朗普很难赢。但大家都明白，这案子肯定会一路打到最高法院。所谓的"美 国制度自愈力"，这回真要接受考验了。美联储理事可不是随便哪个职位。每一票都能影响全球金融市 场。特朗普挑这个时候发难，信号已经很明显：他要让美联储听话，让货币政策变成自己选举的工具。 眼下经济增长不理想，特朗普特别想靠降息和股市走高刷一把政绩。库克不配合，他就拿她开刀。库克 成了权力和制度博弈的牺牲品。 美国媒体和国际专家都说得很明白。如果总统能随便找理由炒掉不听话的理事，美联储独立性就完了。 以后货币政策不是看经济数据，而是看白宫心情。今天是库克，明天可能就是鲍威尔。只要总统一句 话，央行就成了总统的附庸。美国自诩为制度铁律，可现在看起来，脆弱得像玻璃。外部评论也没客 气。美国企业研究所的专家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in maintaining its independence and credibility amid political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, and the implications for U.S. monetary policy and inflation expectations. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The Fed's independence has been a cornerstone of the U.S. dollar's international credibility since the 1951 agreement that ended the binding of Fed rates to government bond rates [1] - Trump's interventions in Fed operations have contributed to a significant decline in the dollar index, indicating a potential loss of confidence in the dollar [1] - The Fed is currently in a precarious position with declining dollar credibility and a weakening dollar exchange rate [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Inflation expectations have risen sharply, with one-year and five-year expectations reaching 6.6% and 4.4%, respectively, the highest since 1981 and 1991 [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, with core CPI at 3.0%, indicating increasing inflationary pressures [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a significant increase, suggesting that supply-side inflation effects from tariffs are beginning to manifest [3] Group 3: Employment Market Trends - The U.S. job market shows signs of cooling, with a downward revision of non-farm payrolls for May and June by 253,000 jobs, a reduction of 88.5% [4] - July's initial non-farm payroll increase was only 73,000, significantly below market expectations [4] - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, but the labor participation rate has declined, indicating a potential labor supply issue [4] Group 4: Monetary Policy Challenges - Fed Chair Powell indicated potential interest rate cuts in September, citing upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [5] - The Fed's policy framework has shifted, moving away from the "flexible average inflation targeting" approach, emphasizing the need to combat inflation [6] - Powell's cautious stance reflects the delicate balance between a weakening labor market and persistent inflation pressures [6] Group 5: Political Interference and Market Reactions - Trump's aggressive trade policies and public criticism of the Fed have raised concerns about the politicization of monetary policy [9] - The potential for Trump to influence Fed decisions through appointments could undermine the Fed's independence and credibility [11] - Following Trump's dismissal of a Fed board member, market reactions included a steepening of the yield curve, indicating expectations for aggressive rate cuts [12]

Group 1: Silver Market Insights - The strong upward trend in spot silver prices is approaching $40 per ounce, with a potential breakout imminent [1] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from solar panel applications, is supporting its price, leading to increased investments in silver-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [1] - August marked the seventh consecutive month of expansion for these silver ETFs, the longest continuous inflow since 2020 [1] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold remains a key hedge against short-term global policy fluctuations and growing skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's credibility [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could reach $3,675 per ounce by the end of the year, with a potential rise to $4,000 per ounce by early next year [1] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, particularly following President Trump's attempt to remove a Fed governor, which could act as a strong bullish catalyst for gold prices [1] Group 3: Related Companies in Gold and Silver - Key companies in the gold industry include Zijin Mining (601899)(02899), Shandong Gold (600547)(01787), and Zhaojin Mining (01818) [2] - In the silver sector, China Silver Group (00815) reported a revenue of RMB 2.33 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with a profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 54.91 million, up 167.13% [3]

Group 1: Silver Market Insights - The strong upward trend in spot silver prices is approaching $40 per ounce, with a potential breakthrough imminent [1] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from solar panel applications, is supporting its price, leading to increased investments in silver-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [1] - In August, silver-backed ETFs experienced their longest continuous inflow since 2020, marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion [1] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold remains a key hedge against short-term global policy volatility and growing skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's credibility [1] - JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices could reach $3,675 per ounce by the end of the year, with a potential rise to $4,000 per ounce by early next year [1] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, particularly following President Trump's attempt to remove a Fed governor, which could act as a strong bullish catalyst for gold prices [1] Group 3: Related Companies in the Gold Industry - Key companies in the gold industry include Zijin Mining (02899), Shandong Gold (01787), Zhaojin Mining (01818), and others [2] Group 4: Related Companies in the Silver Industry - China Silver Group (00815) reported a revenue of RMB 2.33 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with a profit attributable to owners of RMB 54.91 million, up 167.13% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing political influence on the Federal Reserve, which is raising the risk premium associated with U.S. dollar assets, prompting investors to reassess their exposure to dollar-denominated investments [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index is currently at 97.99, reflecting a 0.13% increase from an opening price of 97.87 [1] - The expanding budget deficit and government debt are contributing to the uncertainty in policy direction, which is affecting investor sentiment towards dollar assets [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The market's instinctive reaction to the recent events surrounding Federal Reserve Governor Cook has provided slight support to U.S. short-term Treasury yields [1] - However, if the Trump administration continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates amidst high inflation, this support for yields may not be sustainable [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The dollar index is currently oscillating within a range of 97.54 to 98.95, entering a rebalancing phase after a previous upward movement [1] - The rapid increase in the dollar index faced selling pressure near 98.8290, leading to a pullback to around 97.5400, indicating a pattern of "volatility expansion—rapid mean reversion" driven by events [1]

总统特朗普数月来持续抨击美联储及其主席鲍威尔未能降息。上周，他宣布要解雇美联储首位黑人女性 理事丽莎·库克，指控其涉及抵押贷款欺诈。库克及其支持者称这只是为撤换她以便任命盟友进入美联 储的借口。 智通财经APP获悉，美国参议院财政委员会的一位共和党议员周日强调美联储独立性的重要性，这与副 总统JD·万斯关于总统和民选官员应在货币政策上有发言权的表态形成分歧。 来自俄克拉荷马州的共和党参议员詹姆斯·兰克福德在接受采访时表示，美联储应独立设定利率，而总 统和国会则承担不同职责。"我们各自扮演不同角色。美联储在保持独立性时才能发挥最佳作用，但他 们并非完全脱离美国民众，"兰克福德说，"让我们各司其职。" 反对者批评特朗普解雇库克以及一个月前罢免劳工统计局局长的行为，认为这位共和党总统试图控制历 史上保持独立的机构。库克已提起诉讼阻止免职决定。 万斯上周对表示，声称总统不能解雇美联储官员或影响货币政策是"荒谬的"。"我坚信美国总统更有能 力做出这些决策，"他表示。 尼克松虽赢得那场选举，但两年后因水门事件辞职。卡纳指出特朗普的关税政策正在推高通胀，这使美 联储降息行动变得更加复杂。 民主党众议员罗·卡纳在另一次采访中 ...

[ 7月份，美国消费者物价指数（CPI）同比增长2.7%，核心CPI通胀为3.0%，较4月份分别高出0.4和0.2 个百分点。 ] 1951年，美联储与美国财政部签署协议，终结联储利率与国债利率的绑定，拉开了捍卫货币政策独立性 的序幕。此后，美联储与美国政府围绕货币政策主导权之争互有胜负。自上世纪80年代沃尔克铁腕加息 抗通胀，引领美国经济走出滞胀，进入增长稳定、通胀较低的大缓和时代后，美联储的独立性成为美元 国际信用的重要基石。 在疫情大流行背景下，受财政货币双刺激及供应链中断影响，2021年以来美国遭遇了40年一遇的高通 胀。但受益于通胀预期稳定，美联储2022年3月以来的激进紧缩在降低通胀的同时保持了增长和就业稳 定，到去年9月重启降息，美国经济"软着陆"几乎唾手可得。然而，特朗普重返白宫后有恃无恐地干预 美联储操作，成为今年上半年美元指数暴跌的重要推手。现在，美联储被置于三重险境，美元信用下降 和美元汇率颓势都恐尚未见底。 政策进退两难 特朗普在竞选期间标榜关税是其字典里最美的词汇。自今年1月二次入主白宫后，特朗普频频挥舞关税 大棒：以232条款和301条款为由，对钢铝、汽车等特定商品及其衍生品加征关 ...

回顾本周的行情，由于投资者权衡美国经济数据与美联储未来走向的不确定性，金价大幅走高逼近历史纪 录。最新数据显示美国通胀依然顽固，由此交易员加大了对美联储9月降息的押注，预期降息25个基点的 概率已升至89%，高于数据公布前的85%。降息通常利好无息资产如黄金。同时，美元指数本月下跌约 2%，也为金价提供支撑。 黄金上涨深度解析！ 1、由于美联储独立性的不确定性继续困扰市场。在周五的一次紧急听证会上，联邦法官表示将考虑是否 发布命令阻止特朗普的解雇决定。黄金正在从这种关于美联储独立性的担忧中受益，仅过去两天，黄金 ETF就流入近15吨。为黄金再添一层避险买盘。 2、投资者信心与前景，作为政治与经济动荡中的首选避险资产，黄金今年迄今已上涨逾30%，并在4月创 下3,500美元/盎司的历史新高。当前避险情绪、美元走弱及央行购金预期，均使市场看涨情绪保持高位。 | 日期 | 品和 | 万向 | 开仓时间 | 开仓点位 | 平仓点位 | 盛与点 | 是否持仓过夜 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8月4日 | 黄金 | ਨੂੰ | 21:49 | ...