Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Treasury bond futures mostly declined slightly, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed mixed trends, with the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rising 0.4bp. The inter - bank market liquidity was abundant, and the overnight and seven - day pledged repo rates of deposit - taking institutions both declined again, with the former falling more than 3bp and the latter more than 7bp. After the central bank's interest - rate cut policy took effect, the overall interest - rate center declined, and with consecutive net injections in the open market in recent days, the liquidity expectation was optimistic, and the capital price was expected to continue to fall in the short term [3] - The April PMI fell into the contraction range. The LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months. The central bank adjusted the MLF operation mode, and its policy attribute faded out completely. The central bank mentioned again the possibility of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. The first - quarter financial data was stable and positive. The CPI in March declined slightly but the decline narrowed, and the core CPI rose moderately. There were new developments in the recent tariff negotiations, but it was still a long way from reaching an agreement, which would impact the bond market [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts' price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and other information are presented. For example, the T2506 contract price was 109.060, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 78,100 and an open interest of 329,444 [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - The fundamentals show that Treasury bond futures mostly declined slightly, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed mixed trends. The inter - bank market liquidity was abundant, and the capital price was expected to continue to fall in the short term [3] 3. Capital Flow Analysis - On May 9, the central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 77 billion yuan on that day [3] 4. Basis Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contract basis were negative, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TL main contract basis was positive, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3] 5. Inventory Analysis - The balance of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts was 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3566 trillion respectively, which was neutral [4] 6. Market Trend Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [4] 7. Main Position Analysis - The TS and TF main contracts had net long positions, and the long positions increased. The T main contract had a net long position, but the long positions decreased [5]

Group 1 - The Geneva talks between China and the US have made substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to establish a trade negotiation mechanism, and a joint statement is expected to be released on Monday [2][8] - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices nearly flat as investors awaited clarity on US-China tariff negotiations [3] - The US Treasury yields remained stable, and trading volume decreased compared to usual levels, reflecting market uncertainty [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration has identified around 20 key trading partners for initial negotiations, including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, with Japan's Prime Minister aiming for a trade agreement before the July Senate elections [5] - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns that tariffs could lead to rising inflation and unemployment, complicating monetary policy decisions [5] - The Chinese CPI data for April indicates that tariffs have caused deflation for the third consecutive month, prompting the People's Bank of China to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery in its monetary policy [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The content does not specify a particular company or industry, focusing instead on international news and political developments. Core Points and Arguments - Trump announced plans to sign an executive order that would reduce drug prices by 30% to 80% [1] - The registration for candidates in the South Korean presidential election has concluded with seven candidates participating [2] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida aims for 0% tariffs in negotiations with the United States [3] - Reports indicate that OpenAI and Microsoft are in discussions to unlock new funding and explore a future IPO [4] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce stated that a 10% baseline tariff will remain in place for the foreseeable future [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio is scheduled to accompany Trump on a visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar from May 11 to 14 [6] - The fourth round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran has concluded, with Iran describing the latest nuclear discussions as "difficult but productive," while the U.S. side expressed optimism for a new round of talks to occur soon [7] - Putin proposed that both Russia and Ukraine restart direct negotiations unconditionally in Istanbul on the 15th, with Zelensky indicating he would wait for Putin in Turkey, while Trump expressed skepticism about Ukraine reaching an agreement with Putin [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US-UK trade agreement**, **US-China relations**, and **Federal Reserve monetary policy**. Core Points and Arguments - The **US-UK trade agreement** has reduced certain tariffs, with the US maintaining a 25% tariff on over 100,000 exported cars from the UK, while lowering tariffs on UK imports from 5.1% to 1.8% [1][2] - The agreement includes a commitment from the UK to purchase $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and parts, and establishes an alliance in steel and aluminum trade [2][10] - The **US-China dialogue** in Switzerland aims to ease tensions, focusing on trade, technology transfer, and intellectual property protection, although specific details are yet to be disclosed [4][11] - The **Federal Reserve** is expected to maintain a neutral to slightly hawkish stance, focusing on data changes to ensure policy flexibility, with no immediate plans for rate cuts [5][20] - The reduction in tax policies has led to decreased fiscal revenue, potentially limiting future tax cuts, particularly the minimum 10% tariff reduction [6][22] - Ensuring **supply chain security** is a critical issue in international trade, affecting both traditional industries and pharmaceuticals, with future measures likely targeting specific countries [3][8] - The **demonstration effect** of the US-UK trade agreement may influence negotiations with other countries, particularly Japan and South Korea, regarding tariff reductions [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **challenges** faced by the US in negotiating with surplus countries like the UK are easier compared to deficit countries like the EU and China, where the US demands more concessions [9] - The **personal motivations** of President Trump significantly impact trade relations, as he seeks to showcase major agreements as political achievements [12] - The **market's reaction** to the Federal Reserve's stance indicates a lowered expectation for rate cuts, with a focus on upcoming inflation data to gauge the impact of tariffs [21][22] - The **potential outcomes** of tariff negotiations include lowering tariffs, suspending certain tariffs temporarily, or maintaining the status quo, with each scenario carrying different implications for the market [14][17]

Core Viewpoint - The "reciprocal tariff policy" proposed by Trump is expected to significantly impact China's private and small to medium-sized enterprises, leading to increased operational costs, reduced overseas orders, and potential job losses due to industry chain shifts [1][3][4] Group 1: Impact on Enterprises - High tariffs will increase operational costs for companies, leading to a substantial reduction in overseas orders and potential relocation of industry chains, which may result in employment and livelihood issues [1][3] - Companies are advised to diversify their sales channels, enhance product quality, and increase research and development efforts to turn challenges into opportunities [1][3][4] - The impact of the tariff policy is expected to be particularly severe on small and medium-sized enterprises, which may struggle to adapt quickly [12][13] Group 2: Government Recommendations - Government should implement targeted policies for affected industries and regions, avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach [1][6] - Specific measures include developing domestic markets, boosting consumption, and providing tax relief and export tax rebates to support enterprises [1][5][6] - Local governments are encouraged to facilitate connections between export companies and non-U.S. markets [5][6] Group 3: Industry Responses - Many companies are exploring market diversification, with plans to enter emerging markets such as ASEAN, Europe, and Latin America [3][4] - A significant number of businesses are considering shifting from export to domestic sales or exploring other overseas markets due to increased tariff burdens [4][5] - The overall sentiment among businesses is cautiously optimistic, with many already adjusting their operational strategies in response to the tariff changes [4][5] Group 4: Economic Projections - The tariff policy is estimated to impact China's GDP by approximately 1.6 percentage points, with significant effects on employment, particularly in export-oriented sectors [7][11] - The potential loss of 6 to 8 million jobs is anticipated due to the ripple effects of reduced exports [7][11] - The long-term trend indicates a shift towards de-coupling between the U.S. and China, necessitating a focus on domestic consumption and resilience in supply chains [13][14]

日度报告——综合晨报 中美贸易谈判预计取得进展，美联储强调稳 定通胀重要性 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-12 宏观策略（黄金） 4 月中国 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降 2.7% 综 合 在散户交投活跃度高涨、消息面驱动的背景下，通胀压力和企 业业绩压力被市场忽视。当前市场估值水平已经修复至历史中 值附近，已经难言便宜，行情持续冲高将逐渐积累风险。 晨 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 报 美联储威廉姆斯强调稳定通胀重要 中美关税谈判达成共识，有望进行进一步谈判，对短期风险偏 好构成支持，美国股指期货涨幅近 1%。 黑色金属（动力煤） 2025 年 3 月日本煤炭进口 1237.98 万吨 中美贸易谈判取得进展 金价周五走势震荡表现偏弱，中美高层贸易谈判取得进展推动 金价周一开盘走低，关税问题和地缘军事冲突短期存在改善空 间，黄金短期仍有回调空间。 宏观策略（股指期货） 五一后，港口动力煤库存爆仓，煤价再度失守，港口 5500K 报 价约 645 元，前期 650 元支撑位跌破。关注 5 月份后火电日耗增 速以及国内煤矿开工率变化，或在此轮急跌后供 农产品（玉米） 中央气象台 5 ...

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 中美谈判启动带动市场乐观预期 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 2 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。关税动态方面，五一假期期间， 中美谈判现乐观预期，带动市场放量上涨。5 月 10 日，中美 经贸高层会谈开始在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，预计后续陆续取得 进展，但谈判进程预计较为缓慢，二季度关税对外需影响仍然 ...

Economic Indicators - In Q1 2025, China's current account surplus reached $165.6 billion, with a goods trade surplus of $237.6 billion and a services trade deficit of $59.3 billion [1] - Japan's national debt has hit a record high for the ninth consecutive year, totaling ¥132.37155 trillion [3] Trade Policies - U.S. Commerce Secretary stated that tariff negotiations with Japan and South Korea are complex and unlikely to reach an agreement in the short term, with a baseline tariff of at least 10% unless partner countries open their economies [1] - U.S. trade advisor emphasized that the EU is a priority in tariff negotiations due to a significant trade deficit, with the EU's VAT system being a focal point [1] Central Bank Perspectives - European Central Bank's Rehn suggested considering interest rate cuts if economic growth slows and inflation decreases due to uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [2] - New York Fed President Williams noted that U.S. trade policies increase economic downside risks, stressing the importance of maintaining stable inflation expectations [1][2] Market Performance - Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.29% to 41,249.38 points, while S&P 500 decreased by 0.07% to 5,659.91 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.70% to $3,329.10 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.81% to $32.88 per ounce [4] Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil main contract rose by 1.92% to $61.06 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract increased by 1.65% to $63.88 per barrel [5] Bond Market - 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.87 basis points to 3.889%, while 10-year yield decreased by 0.98 basis points to 4.382% [6]

瑞士总统：今天美国方面"明确承诺"将加快关税谈判的进程。 ...

Group 1 - The Indonesian Energy Minister announced plans to shift some fuel imports from Singapore to the United States as part of tariff negotiations with the U.S. [1]