【美国圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆对进一步降息持开放态度，同时强调抵御通胀重要性】周一，美国圣 路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆表示，他对进一步降息持开放态度，但美联储须谨慎行事，要将利 率保持在足够高水平以抵御通胀。他称目前货币政策介于适度限制性和中性之间，从现在到政策过度宽 松阶段空间有限。 对于通胀，穆萨勒姆指出，虽长期通胀预期稳定，但短期仍偏高，预计未来两三个 季度通胀将处高位。他还表示，到目前为止关税对通胀影响有限，可能只占当前通胀的10%，尽管总体 通胀率比美联储2%的目标高出近一个百分点。 穆萨勒姆强调对抗高于目标通胀的重要性，不论其来源 如何，还指出劳动力市场走弱风险已增加。他今年拥有货币政策投票权，属鹰派派系，今年以来一直警 告通胀风险上升可能性。 同日，美联储另一鹰派官员克利夫兰联储主席哈马克称，美联储在平息通胀 与保护就业间面临艰难平衡，需保持紧缩政策立场让通胀回到目标水平。 本月早些时候，美联储宣布 降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.00%-4.25%，这是9个月来首次降息。不过，对于未来 降息节奏，美联储内部存在很大分歧。 市场普遍预计美联储下个月将继续降息。目前，美联储1 ...

Core Viewpoint - New York Fed President Williams supports interest rate cuts to balance inflation control and employment support [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Williams indicated that a "moderate reduction in rates" and "slight easing of policy restrictions" are reasonable to ensure healthy labor market development while applying downward pressure on inflation above target [1] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% due to rising risks in the labor market, despite the U.S. inflation rate remaining above the 2% target [1] - The dot plot from the September meeting suggests that the Fed may cut rates two more times by the end of the year [1] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Balance - Williams emphasized the need to balance inflation control and employment support, expressing concern over the potential for a slowdown in job growth to spread excessively [1] - He noted that there is still work to be done regarding high inflation, as it remains distant from the 2% target [1] Group 3: Tariff Impact - Williams stated that some factors previously causing high inflation concerns have dissipated, and the impact of tariffs has been less than expected, with no signs of accumulating inflationary pressures [1]

Group 1 - U.S. Congress leaders are set to meet with President Trump to discuss a short-term spending bill, with a government shutdown looming if an agreement is not reached by Tuesday [1] - Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on films produced outside the U.S. and high tariffs on furniture not made in the U.S. to boost domestic industries [1] - The New York Fed President Williams indicates that current policies remain tight to control inflation, with a long way to go to achieve the 2% inflation target [1] Group 2 - The SEC Chairman Atkins announces plans for "minimal regulation" and to expedite the proposal to eliminate quarterly earnings reports for companies [2] - Japan's central bank member Noguchi states that Japan is making steady progress towards its 2% inflation target, making the adjustment of policy rates more urgent than ever [2] - A joint statement from the U.S. Treasury, Swiss Treasury, and Swiss National Bank reaffirms that they will not use exchange rates as a competitive target [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.15% to 46,316.07 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.26% to 6,661.21 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.48% to 22,591.15 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.42% to $3,862.90 per ounce, and silver futures rose by 0.97% to $47.11 per ounce [3] - U.S. oil futures fell by 3.86% to $63.18 per barrel, and Brent crude futures dropped by 3.51% to $66.79 per barrel [3] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.26% to 97.94, while the euro and pound both appreciated against the dollar [4] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose by 0.61% to 96.97, marking a new high since April [4]

圣路易斯联邦储备 银行行长阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆表示，他对未来进一步降息持开放态度，但由于当前通 胀率仍高于央行设定的2%目标水平，政策制定者应谨慎推进。 ...

Group 1: Eurozone Inflation and Central Bank Policies - Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests that inflation in the Eurozone may be higher than expected, with economists predicting a rate of 2.2%, but the actual figure could be around 2.4% due to low base effects in France and Spain, putting pressure on the European Central Bank's hopes for rate cuts by year-end [1] - Standard Chartered Bank maintains its view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the cash rate at 3.60% in the upcoming meeting, but unexpected economic data and rising CPI could increase the risk of pausing rate cuts in Q4 [1] - Nomura forecasts increased volatility in the USD/JPY exchange rate, with attention on the Bank of Japan's upcoming Tankan survey and U.S. government shutdown developments affecting market sentiment [1] Group 2: Japan's Inflation and Economic Measures - Capital Economics indicates that Tokyo's lower-than-expected CPI exaggerates the speed of inflation slowdown across Japan, with overall inflation expected to drop by about 0.7 percentage points due to measures like free childcare [2] - The nationwide inflation rate, excluding fresh food and energy, is projected to decrease from 3.3% to 3.1% [2] - Capital Economics maintains that the Bank of Japan will resume tightening policies in the October meeting despite the recent CPI data [2] Group 3: Emerging Markets and Trade Uncertainty - Asian currencies and emerging market stocks rose as the dollar fell, but uncertainty surrounding a potential U.S. government shutdown could limit the gains [2] - Galaxy Securities notes that Singapore's manufacturing outlook is weak due to trade uncertainties, with factory output declining by 7.8% year-on-year, particularly in the electronics and biopharmaceutical sectors [2] - Indian bond traders are hopeful for a dovish signal from the Reserve Bank of India to revive market sentiment, with potential rate cuts expected to lower 10-year bond yields [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive global economic outlook with rising market risk appetite, but warns of persistent issues such as regionalism, inflation, and structured valuation risks [1][17] - It suggests a cautious yet optimistic approach to asset allocation, focusing on companies' core competencies and balancing risk and return [1][17] Market Overview - Global equity assets showed strong performance in September 2025, with MSCI Global returning 2.31% and emerging markets at 6.78%, outperforming developed markets [8][14] - Domestic markets continued to rise, with the CSI All Share Index yielding 1.87% and active equity funds performing well, particularly the China Equity Index which rose by 6.03% [8][14] International Market Analysis - Manufacturing expansion remains slow overseas, with potential valuation "disproof" risks due to expectation discrepancies [1][18] - The report highlights that while AI innovations are driving growth in the service sector, their impact on traditional manufacturing remains uncertain [20][18] Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic economy shows strong resilience, with industrial value-added growth of 5.2% year-on-year in August, and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.3% [22][24] - Service sector growth is robust, with a production index increase of 5.6% year-on-year, particularly in information technology and financial services [22][24] Asset Allocation Strategy - For equity funds, a core + opportunity "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with high performance certainty and dividend yields [51][52] - Fixed income funds should prioritize medium to short duration products for better value, as long-duration bonds face increasing risks [54][55] Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted for its high growth potential, particularly in areas like chips, AI, and renewable energy, although volatility risks are noted [52][55] - The report indicates that while gold remains a long-term investment due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, oil prices may face downward pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations and OPEC+ production increases [38][44][43]

Group 1 - AstraZeneca's dual listing in London and New York has positively impacted the FTSE 100 index, marking a symbolic victory for the London financial district amid recent high-profile executive departures [3] - The FTSE 100 index performed best among European indices, partly due to AstraZeneca's strategic move to leverage valuation arbitrage between London and Wall Street, benefiting UK shareholders [3] - European markets opened higher, supported by weaker-than-expected inflation data from Spain, which showed a 2.9% increase in prices for September, slightly below the anticipated 3.1% [3] Group 2 - In the US, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation indicator remained stable at 2.9%, supported by a monthly inflation rate of 0.2%, indicating a potential for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - Gold prices surged to a historical high of $3,816 per ounce, reflecting market expectations for future policy easing as the Federal Reserve may shift its policy direction [4] - Oil prices fell, with Brent crude dropping below $69 per barrel due to expectations of increased production from OPEC+, as Iraq's Kurdistan region resumed exports [4]

黄金再创新高。 9月29日，现货黄金盘中站上3800美元/盎司，再刷新历史纪录。截至发稿，伦敦金现涨约1.2%，报3803.65美元/盎司。 当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，并暗示在年底前会进一步降息。点阵图显示2025年降息中位数由6月的2次上调至3次，2026和2027年各一 次，长期中性利率维持在3%。截至目前，CME交易预期年内还有两次降息，于10月、12月分别降息25个基点的概率为91.9%、78.6%。 中信建投研报显示，2024年下半年以来，全球ETF需求进入补库阶段，但主导的买盘力量出现多次切换，反映市场定价主线的切换。今年6—8月，西方市 场重新主导ETF流入，直接映射下半年黄金的宏观定价主线，已经从之前的"去美元化"叙事转向对降息路径的关注。 近日，摩根大通、瑞银等均上调了对金价的预测。摩根大通预计现货金价将在2025年第四季度达到3800美元/盎司，并在2026年第一季度突破4000美元/盎 司大关。瑞银预计，到2025年底金价将达到每盎司3800美元，高于此前预测的每盎司3500美元。到2026年中，金价可能在每盎司3900美元左右，此前预测 为每盎司3700美元。瑞银表 ...

记者 张一诺 9月美联储降息，叠加国内8月份经济数据增速放缓，市场高度关注四季度货币政策变化。 中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪指出，本次例会，央行对货币政策目标（主要为通胀）的表述出现细微差别，从"保 持经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"转变为"促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"，从"保持"转变为"促进"，表明 监管层对经济增长和物价处于合理水平的诉求更为强烈。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1-8月份，中国CPI同比、环比均在低位运行。 央行9月26日晚间披露，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会于9月23日召开。本次例会强调货币政策措施 的执行和效应释放，未给出增量放松措施指引。分析师表示，目前货币政策处于观望状态，推进已出台政策落实落细仍 是重点，但这并不代表后期不会推出新的增量政策，后续货币政策仍将根据经济增长动能变化及物价走势等持续发力、 适时加力。 会后新闻通稿显示，本次会议对于货币政策的表述主要有三个方面的变化：货币政策目标、货币宽松具体实施以及结构 性货币政策工具。 最近两次例会主要内容对比 | 内容 | 2025年9月23日例会 | 2025年6月23日例会 | 变化 | | - ...

Core Insights - Silver is expected to challenge its historical high of $50, while gold prices may face some resistance due to a short-term rebound in the dollar [1] - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with Q2 GDP growth revised up to 3.8%, supporting the dollar's rebound and impacting gold's upward momentum [1][2] - The market is experiencing a divergence in the performance of gold and silver, with silver outperforming gold due to a recovery in the gold-silver ratio [2][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE index for August rose by 0.2%, aligning with expectations, indicating consumer resilience [3] - The second quarter GDP annualized growth was revised from 3.3% to 3.8%, marking a two-year high [2][3] - Initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations, reflecting a strong labor market [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The dollar index is stabilizing above 98, supported by hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials and a macro environment characterized by economic resilience and persistent inflation [2] - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is increasing, with a 63% probability of occurrence, which may elevate market risk aversion and support gold prices [3] - Central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, driven by global monetary expansion and de-dollarization trends, which will support gold prices in the medium to long term [3][4] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Asset Strategies International anticipates that despite signs of overbought conditions in the gold market, the upward trend in gold prices will persist due to ongoing central bank purchases [3] - Phoenix Futures and Options highlights that the current market dynamics, including expectations of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, are favorable for gold [4]