2025.09. 04 :08J百未 ( 数关口及20日均线,盘中最低下探至3732.84点。创业板指和科创50指数均跌破多 条短期均线,技术形态走弱。 2295家上涨 涨跌停比 44:4.8 市场呈现"消费防御走强,科技成长重挫"的特 征,盘面上,半导体、贵金属、CPO、液冷服务 器概念跌幅居前,零售、银行、旅游板块活跃。 两市成交额 2.54 万亿元 7.62% 今日市场整体呈现"放量下跌"的特征，连续第 17个交易日突破2万亿元大关，资金从半导体、 通信设备等科技板块大幅流出，并流向银行、商 业百货等防御性板块。 资金情绪 主力资金净流出 1100. 散户资金净流入 机构呈现谨慎防御性调仓特征，从前期涨幅较大、交易拥挤的科技成长板块撤离，并转向银行、公用事业、新能 源产业链中的部分环节以及大消费等防御性板块寻求避险;散户明显转向谨慎观望，部分散户选择卖出或观望, 尽管有散户资金逆势流入试图抄底,但整体操作更趋短线化。 散户情绪 75.85% 2:33 司局7 E 5491 (0 及家 川 日 6.00% 52.29% ऋ 上 证 指 数 3765.88 ڃ론 党员云音 哲罗哲总会 党语 雷音音 雷锋 总 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced a collective decline on the morning of the 4th, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.37%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 3.2% [2] - The North Stock 50 Index rose by 0.58%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index fell by 5.38%, closing at 1236.24 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 16,187 billion yuan, an increase of 1,465 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] Sector Performance - Over 2,600 stocks in the market declined, with notable sectors showing varied performance [2] - Retail, tourism and hotel, photovoltaic storage, and paper sectors saw the highest gains, while CPO, semiconductors, precious metals, military equipment, and non-ferrous metals sectors faced the largest declines [2] - Significant drops were observed in computing power hardware stocks, with companies like Cambrian, Zhongji Xuchuang, and others experiencing declines exceeding 10% [2] - The military equipment sector underwent substantial adjustments, with companies such as Great Wall Military Industry and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group hitting the daily limit down [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed poorly, with silver non-ferrous and Luoyang Molybdenum hitting the daily limit down [2] Notable Stocks - Consumer sectors such as retail, tourism, and food showed resilience, with stocks like Lingnan Holdings and Bubugao hitting the daily limit up [2] - The battery and energy storage sectors were active, with companies like Tianji Co. and Zhengye Technology reaching the daily limit up [2] - The paper sector also performed positively, with Jingxing Paper hitting the daily limit up [2]

Market Performance - The three major indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 2.37%, and the ChiNext Index down by 3.2%, while the STAR Market Index fell by 5.38% [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.6 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The CPO concept stocks experienced a significant drop of 5.11%, with over 10 stocks, including Shijia Photon and Juguang Technology, hitting the daily limit down or falling more than 10% [3] - Consumer sectors such as tourism, hotels, and retail showed resilience, with stocks like Lingnan Space and Huitong Times hitting the daily limit up [3] - Solid-state battery concept stocks maintained strong performance, with Jinlongyu hitting the daily limit up [3] - The photovoltaic and energy storage sectors were active, with Ancai High-Tech also hitting the daily limit up [3] Company Orders and Market Growth - By the first half of 2025, several leading equipment companies, including XianDao Intelligent and HaiMuXing, reported new and existing orders exceeding 30 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 70% to 80% [3] - The global Ethernet optical module market is expected to continue rapid growth, projected to reach 18.9 billion USD by 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 35% [3] - In Q2 2025, global smartwatch shipments increased by 8% year-on-year, with Huawei surpassing Apple to become the top seller [3]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower by 0.15% on September 4 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index opened higher by 0.44% [1] - The ChiNext Index opened higher by 1.18% [1] Group 2 - The CPO, BC battery, and manganese silicon sectors showed significant gains [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with mixed performance among the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15% at 3807.76 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.18% [1] Sector Performance - The CPO and copper cable high-speed connection concepts opened higher, with Tengjing Technology and Guangku Technology (300620) both rising approximately 8%, and Changfei Optical Fiber (601869) increasing over 6% [1] - Gold prices have recently reached new highs, leading to continued gains in some gold stocks, with Western Gold (601069) rising over 3% [1] - The military equipment sector opened lower, with Changcheng Military Industry (601606) hitting the daily limit down, and Inner Mongolia First Machinery (600967) and Beifang Changlong both dropping over 5% [1] - Oil and gas stocks generally declined, with Tongyuan Petroleum (300164) falling nearly 4% and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) decreasing over 1.5%, amid reports that OPEC+ is considering another production increase [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with mixed performance among the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15% at 3807.76 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index opened up 0.44% and the ChiNext Index up 1.18% [1] Sector Performance - CPO and copper cable high-speed connection concepts opened strong, with Tengjing Technology and Guangku Technology rising approximately 8%, and Changfei Optical Fiber increasing over 6% [1] - The solid-state battery concept saw initial gains, with Zhonglun New Materials and Haibo Shichuang both rising over 10% [1] - Gold prices have recently reached new highs, leading to continued gains in some gold stocks, with Western Gold rising over 3% [1] - The military equipment sector opened lower, with Changcheng Military Industry hitting the daily limit down, and Inner Mongolia First Machinery and Northern Long Dragon both dropping over 5% [1] - Oil and gas stocks generally fell, with Tongyuan Petroleum down nearly 4% and China National Offshore Oil Corporation down over 1.5%, amid reports that OPEC+ is considering another production increase [1]

Group 1 - The majority of computing hardware stocks, including CPO and copper cable high-speed connection companies, opened higher [1] - Tengjing Technology saw an increase of over 8% [1] - Shenghong Technology and Changfei Optical Fiber both rose by more than 5% [1] - Industrial Fulian increased by over 4% [1] - Companies such as Xinyi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Shijia Photon also opened higher [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - **Futures Market**: In the domestic futures market, most contracts closed lower overnight. Gold and silver futures rose over 1%, while coking coal dropped over 3%, and several other commodities like coke and low-sulfur fuel oil fell over 2% [3]. - **Stock Market**: A-share market showed a mixed trend. The ChiNext Index rose 0.95%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.65%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index dropped 0.6% [24]. - **Bond Market**: Bond futures in China closed higher, with the 30-year and 10-year main contracts rising 0.46% and 0.21% respectively. Global long-term bond yields generally increased, with the US 30-year Treasury yield breaking through 5% [44]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose 8 basis points at 16:30, while the US dollar index fell 0.17% [46][47]. 2. Important News **Macro News** - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held its second meeting, emphasizing the synergy of fiscal and monetary policies [7]. - The RatingDog China Services PMI in August reached 53, the highest since May 2024 [8]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes one rate cut this year is appropriate, subject to inflation and employment conditions [8]. **Energy and Chemical Futures** - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch the standard warehouse receipt generation business for offset printing paper futures from November 20, 2025 [9]. - OPEC+ will consider further increasing oil production at a meeting on Sunday, which may involve lifting a 1.65 million barrels per day production cut [9]. - China's methanol port inventory increased to 142.77 million tons as of September 3, 2025 [10]. - National urea production from January to August 2025 was 47.42 million tons, a 9.7% year-on-year increase [10]. **Metal Futures** - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will adjust the margin levels and price limits of several gold and silver contracts from September 5, 2025 [13][40]. - The World Gold Council is seeking to launch a digital form of gold, which could transform the $900 billion London physical gold market [13][42]. - Chile's lithium carbonate exports in August 2025 were 16,900 tons, a 19.2% month-on-month decrease [14]. **Black Futures** - Jinyie Iron and Steel Group conducted maintenance on a 450m³ blast furnace from August 31 to September 10, affecting daily pig iron production by about 1,700 tons [18]. - Shandong coking enterprises resumed production on September 3 after a period of production restrictions [18]. **Agricultural Futures** - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 is expected to reach 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July [20]. - Yunnan's sugar sales as of the end of August 2025 were 2.0823 million tons, with a sales rate of 86.09% [22]. - La Nina may return from September, affecting global weather and climate [22]. 3. Financial Market **Stock Market** - Southbound funds' net inflow into the Hong Kong stock market reached HK$1.00573 trillion as of September 3, setting a new high [24]. - 41 brokerages have recommended 281 stocks for September, with an overall optimistic view on the A-share market [26]. - Institutions have shown high enthusiasm for researching North Exchange-listed companies [26]. **Industry** - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aim to build agricultural machinery verification platforms by 2027 [28]. - The second-hand housing market in Beijing and Shenzhen showed different trends in August, while Guangzhou's market slowed down [28]. - New energy vehicle retail sales in August reached 1.079 million units, a 5% year-on-year increase [30]. - Major paper mills announced price increases in early September [30]. **Overseas Markets** - Brazilian President Lula plans to hold a special BRICS leaders' summit on September 8 to discuss US trade policies [31]. - The US economy showed little change in recent weeks, with consumer spending flat or declining [31]. - The US job openings in July dropped to 7.181 million, a 10-month low [32]. - Some Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [32]. - The eurozone's August composite PMI rose slightly to 51 [32]. - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates if the economy and prices meet expectations [34]. - Japan's new fiscal year budget application reached a record ¥122.4 trillion [34]. - South Korea's Q2 GDP grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter [35]. - Australia's Q2 GDP grew 1.8% year-on-year [36]. **International Stock Markets** - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.05% and the Nasdaq up 1.02% [37]. - European stocks closed higher, with the German DAX up 0.46% [37]. - Barclays believes the S&P 500 is not overvalued, especially technology stocks [38]. - Foreign investors are withdrawing from the Vietnamese stock market at an unprecedented rate [39]. **Commodity Market** - Gold and silver futures rose, while oil futures fell [3][41]. - The London Metal Exchange postponed its Asian opening time by 90 minutes [40]. **Bond Market** - China's bond market rose, while global long-term bond yields increased [44]. - US Treasury yields fell across the board [45]. **Foreign Exchange Market** - The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose slightly, while the US dollar index fell [46][47].

Market Performance - The major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3813.56, down 1.16% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.00, down 0.65%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.95% to 2899.37 [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.36 trillion, a decrease of 510.9 billion from the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Comprehensive (+1.64%), Communication (+1.61%), and Electric Equipment (+1.44%) [3] - The sectors that underperformed were Defense Industry (-5.83%), Non-Bank Financials (-3.05%), and Computer (-2.71%) [3] - Concept indices such as Fentanyl (+0.65%) and BC Battery (+0.39%) performed well, while sectors like Military Restructuring (-7.44%) and Domestic Aircraft Carrier (-5.45%) lagged [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on the TMT sector, which is anticipated to maintain high growth due to the dual drivers of AI trends and domestic substitution [6] - The report highlights that the third batch of "national subsidies" has been issued, with the fourth batch expected in October, indicating a potential acceleration in economic recovery [6] - The report suggests that investors should pay attention to sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" trends, including dividend stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, and consumer electronics [6] News and Developments - In August 2025, A-share new accounts reached 2.65 million, a year-on-year increase of 165%, significantly surpassing the previous year's levels [5] - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in August reached 1.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [5]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting to discuss the operation of the financial market, government bond issuance management, and the offshore RMB bond issuance mechanism [2] - FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China A50 Index, including the inclusion of companies such as BeiGene and WuXi AppTec, effective September 22 [2] Group 2 - Twelve provinces in China have raised the minimum wage this year, with increases ranging from 8% to 12%, resulting in all provinces having a minimum wage exceeding 2000 yuan [3] - The Ministry of Commerce of China determined that U.S. fiber optic manufacturers circumvented anti-dumping measures, imposing anti-dumping duties on several companies, with rates as high as 78.2% [3] Group 3 - A-share market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 0.95%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.16% [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.6%, with significant net inflows from southbound funds reaching 10057.3 billion HKD year-to-date [4][5] Group 4 - The North Exchange has seen increased institutional research activity, with 68 companies announcing 77 research records since August [6] - Allegations of insider trading are being investigated in Hong Kong, involving staff from the stock exchange and the Securities and Futures Commission [6] Group 5 - The agricultural sector aims to develop high-end intelligent agricultural machinery by 2027, focusing on testing platforms and application centers [8] - In August, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.079 million units, marking a 25% year-on-year increase [8] Group 6 - Tesla's sales in major European markets have significantly declined, with a 39% drop in new car registrations in Germany in August [10] - LG Energy Solution signed battery supply agreements with Mercedes-Benz, with a total capacity of 107 GWh, potentially worth around 768 billion yuan [10] Group 7 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.05% and the Nasdaq up 1.02%, driven by strong performances from tech stocks [15] - Global long-term bond sell-off intensified, with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields surpassing 5% [16] Group 8 - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1468 against the USD, with a slight increase, while the offshore RMB fell to 7.1397 [21] - The South Korean economy showed a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2, exceeding initial estimates [20]